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1.
Body Size and Risk of Extinction in Australian Mammals   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
Abstract: The link between body size and risk of extinction has been the focus of much recent attention. For Australian terrestrial mammals this link is of particular interest because it is widely believed that species in the intermediate size range of 35–5500 g (the "critical weight range") have been the most prone to recent extinction. But the relationship between body size and extinction risk in Australian mammals has never been subject to a robust statistical analysis. Using a combination of randomization tests and phylogenetic comparative analyses, we found that Australian mammal extinctions and declines have been nonrandom with respect to body size, but we reject the hypothesis of a critical weight range at intermediate sizes. Small species appear to be the least prone to extinction, but extinctions have not been significantly clustered around intermediate sizes. Our results suggest that hypotheses linking intermediate body size with high risk of extinction in Australian mammals are misguided and that the focus of future research should shift to explaining why the smallest species are the most resistant to extinction.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract. There is a dire need to predict the vulnerability of tropical forest biotas to habitat fragmentation I tested the efficacy of seven ecological traits (body size Iongeuity, fecundity, trophic level, dietary specialization, natural abundance in rain forest and abundance in the surrounding habitat matrix) for predicting responses of 16 nonflying mammal species to rain forest fragmentation in tropical QueenslaM Australia An ordination analysis revealed that most (84%) of the variation in traits was described by two axes, the first separating rand K-selected species, and the second discriminating rare species with specialized diets from common species with generalized diets.
Using multiple regression analysis, the two ordination axes explained 51.7% of variation in mammal extinction proneness (F = 9.96 P = 0.009). Howem, univariate tests revealed tbat a single trait abundance in the mawas a betterpredictor of vulnerability (r2= 63.8%, F = 24.69, P < 0.001). Partial correlations demonstrated that once the effects of matrix abundance tuete remove4 no other traits or ordination axes were significant predictors of extinction proneness.
These results highlight the importance of tolerance of modijied habitats in determining survival of nonpying mammals in tropical forest fragments. Species tbat traverse or exploit modaxied habitats tend to remain stable or inmase in fragments whereas those tbat avoid these habitats often disappem The implications of these findings for hopical forest conservation are discussed.  相似文献   

3.
Hunting and the Likelihood of Extinction of Amazonian Mammals   总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9  
Species inhabiting tropical forests are thought to be on the verge of mass extinction. Much work has focused on extinction rates caused by deforestation; however, many of the recorded extinctions that have occurred since 1600 were a result of overhunting. We collected data on the relative abundance of large-bodied mammals in the northeastern Peruvian Amazon in areas with persistent hunting pressure and in areas with infrequent hunting pressure. We quantified the effects of hunting by calculating the change in abundance of species between the infrequently and persistently hunted sites. We report that in Amazonian mammals weighing more than 1 kg the degree of population declines caused by hunting is correlated with the species' intrinsic rate of natural increase (rmax  ), longevity, and generation time. Our results show that species with long-lived individuals, low rates of increase, and long generation times are more vulnerable to extinction than species with short-lived individuals, high rates of increase, and shorter generations.  相似文献   

4.
Insularization of Tanzanian Parks and the Local Extinction of Large Mammals   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8  
Island biogeography theory predicts that species will be lost on habitat "islands" created by the fragmentation of continental regions. Many Tanzanian parks are rapidly becoming habitat islands as a result of human settlement, agricultural development, and the active elimination of wildlife on adjacent lands. The rate of extinction of mammals in six Tanzanian parks over the last 35–83 years is significantly and inversely related to park area, suggesting that increasing insularization of the parks has been an important contributory factor in large mammal extinctions. I compared observed patterns of persistence of mammals in Tanzanian parks to predictions derived from earlier extinction models. The predictions of the S 1 models of Soulé et al. (1979) and Burkey (1994) and the S 2 and S 3 models of Soulé et al. (1979) match very closely the observed pattern of persistence of mammals in Tanzanian parks. The loss of mammal species will probably continue, particularly in the smaller parks. Establishment of wildlife corridors linking the parks in northern Tanzania could help to reduce the potential loss of species in the future.  相似文献   

5.
As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central  相似文献   

6.
Abstract:  For successful conservation of species it is important to identify traits that predispose species to the risk of extinction. By identifying such traits conservation efforts can be directed toward species that are most at risk of becoming threatened. We used data derived from the literature to determine ecological traits that affect distribution, distribution change, and the risk of extinction in Finnish noctuid moths (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae). The ecological traits we examined included body size, larval specificity, length of the flight period, and overwintering stage. In addition, in monophagous species we examined the effects of resource distribution. Larval specificity, length of the flight period, and the overwintering stage each had an independent effect on the risk of extinction when the effects of other traits were controlled by entering all traits into the same regression model. Not a single trait predicted the risk of extinction when analysis was conducted without controlling for the other traits. This discrepancy among the results suggests that a single trait may not be enough to allow prediction of the risk of extinction. Instead, it seems that for successful, predictive conservation science data on several ecological characteristics are needed.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract:  The critical weight range hypothesis for Australian terrestrial mammals states that species in the intermediate size range 35–5500 g are particularly susceptible to extinction. In a 2001 study Cardillo and Bromham found no statistically significant evidence for this hypothesis and suggested that research should instead focus on why small species are resistant to extinction. We used a similar data set of body sizes of Australian mammals grouped by conservation classification, but we used test statistics (mean deviation above and below the median body size) that are more statistically powerful than those of Cardillo and Bromham (quartiles, maxima, and minima of body size distributions). We found strong evidence in favor of the critical weight range hypothesis: the body size distribution of threatened species was more clustered toward the median body size from above and below. This pattern was statistically significant at the continental scale and in the arid zone, but not in the mesic zone. Confusing statistical significance with evidence of no effect, as Cardillo and Bromham did, can have negative implications for conservation biology because it can result in failure to act when action is warranted or provision of incorrect advice that affects policy and planning decisions.  相似文献   

8.
Inbreeding and Extinction: A Threshold Effect   总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13  
A fundamental assumption underlying the application of genetics within conservation biology is that inbreeding increases the risk of extinction. However, there is no information on the shape of the relationship, the available evidence has not distinguished genetic and nongenetic effects, and the issue is controversial. Methods were devised to separate genetic and nongenetic causes of extinction in inbred populations, and they were used to analyze data from Drosophila melanogaster, D. virilis and Mus musculus . Inbreeding markedly increased rates of extinction in all cases. All showed a threshold relationship between incremental extinction and inbreeding with low initial extinction, but they showed notably increased extinction beginning at intermediate levels of inbreeding. There was no difference in extinction levels at similar inbreeding coefficients in populations inbred at different rates (full sibling versus double first cousin). Endangered species may give little warning of impending extinction crises due to inbreeding.  相似文献   

9.
10.
Spatial Structure and Population Extinction: A Study with Drosophila Flies   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Abstract: The total amount of habitat and also its distribution and subdivision affect the extinction probability of a resident population Two species of Drosophila are studied in spatial configurations of a single large habitat patch, single small habitat patches, and two small but connected habitat patches in which a low rate of migration, roughly one fly per generation, is possible. The single large habitat patch shows the lowest extinction rate lower than the combined rate of two small patches of the same total size. For one of the species, the "corridor" between the pair of small patches seems to produce a "rescue effect" that lowers extinction rates, probably due to a decrease in the coefficient of variation in fluctuations of the population sire in this coupled system. The systems seem to have been influenced by demographic stochasticity, based on the relationship of population size to extinction probability.  相似文献   

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Assessing temporal changes in species extinction risk is necessary for measuring conservation success or failure and for directing conservation resources toward species or regions that would benefit most. Yet, there is no long‐term picture of genuine change that allows one to associate species extinction risk trends with drivers of change or conservation actions. Through a review of 40 years of IUCN‐related literature sources on species conservation status (e.g., action plans, red‐data books), we assigned retrospective red‐list categories to the world's carnivores and ungulates (2 groups with relatively long generation times) to examine how their extinction risk has changed since the 1970s. We then aggregated species’ categories to calculate a global trend in their extinction risk over time. A decline in the conservation status of carnivores and ungulates was underway 40 years ago and has since accelerated. One quarter of all species (n = 498) moved one or more categories closer to extinction globally, while almost half of the species moved closer to extinction in Southeast Asia. The conservation status of some species improved (toward less threatened categories), but for each species that improved in status 8 deteriorated. The status of large‐bodied species, particularly those above 100 kg (including many iconic taxa), deteriorated significantly more than small‐bodied species (below 10 kg). The trends we found are likely related to geopolitical events (such as the collapse of Soviet Union), international regulations (such as CITES), shifting cultural values, and natural resource exploitation (e.g., in Southeast Asia). Retrospective assessments of global species extinction risk reduce the risk of a shifting baseline syndrome, which can affect decisions on the desirable conservation status of species. Such assessments can help conservationists identify which conservation policies and strategies are or are not helping safeguard biodiversity and thus can improve future strategies. Una Evaluación Retrospectiva de la Declinación Global de Carnívoros y Ungulados  相似文献   

17.
Permeability of Roads to Movement of Scrubland Lizards and Small Mammals   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
A primary objective of road ecology is to understand and predict how roads affect connectivity of wildlife populations. Road avoidance behavior can fragment populations, whereas lack of road avoidance can result in high mortality due to wildlife‐vehicle collisions. Many small animal species focus their activities to particular microhabitats within their larger habitat. We sought to assess how different types of roads affect the movement of small vertebrates and to explore whether responses to roads may be predictable on the basis of animal life history or microhabitat preferences preferences. We tracked the movements of fluorescently marked animals at 24 sites distributed among 3 road types: low‐use dirt, low‐use secondary paved, and rural 2‐lane highway. Most data we collected were on the San Diego pocket mouse (Chaetodipus fallax), cactus mouse (Peromyscus eremicus), western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis), orange‐throated whiptail (Aspidoscelis hyperythra), Dulzura kangaroo rat (Dipodomys simulans) (dirt, secondary paved), and deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) (highway only). San Diego pocket mice and cactus mice moved onto dirt roads but not onto a low‐use paved road of similar width or onto the highway, indicating they avoid paved road substrate. Both lizard species moved onto the dirt and secondary paved roads but avoided the rural 2‐lane rural highway, indicating they may avoid noise, vibration, or visual disturbance from a steady flow of traffic. Kangaroo rats did not avoid the dirt or secondary paved roads. Overall, dirt and secondary roads were more permeable to species that prefer to forage or bask in open areas of their habitat, rather than under the cover of rocks or shrubs. However, all study species avoided the rural 2‐lane highway. Our results suggest that microhabitat use preferences and road substrate help predict species responses to low‐use roads, but roads with heavy traffic may deter movement of a much wider range of small animal species.  相似文献   

18.
Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas  相似文献   

19.
Abstract: The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) may be the first charismatic felid to become extinct in a high‐income country, despite decades of study and much data that show extinction is highly probable. The International Union for Conservation of Nature categorizes it as critically endangered; about 200 free‐ranging individuals remain in two populations in southern Spain. Conservation measures aimed at averting extirpation have been extensively undertaken with 4 of the former 10 Iberian lynx populations recorded 25 years ago. Two of the four populations have been extirpated. The number of individuals in the third population have declined by 83%, and in the fourth the probability of extirpation has increased from 34% to 95%. Major drivers of the pending extinction are the small areas to which conservation measures have been applied; lack of incorporation of evidence‐based conservation, scientific monitoring, and adaptive management into conservation efforts; a lack of continuity in recovery efforts, and distrust by conservation agencies of scientific information. In contrast to situations in which conservation and economic objectives conflict, in the case of the Iberian lynx all stakeholders desire the species to be conserved.  相似文献   

20.
The native vascular plant flora of the Republic of Singapore has suffered the extinction of 594 out of a total 2277 species. These represent local, not global, species extinctions. Coastal habitats, including mangroves, have lost 39% of their species, while inland forests have last 29%. Epiphytic species (62% loss) appear particularly prone to extinction, which is reflected in a similar disposition exhibited by the Orchidaceae. Deforestation and disturbance have been the main cause of plant species extinction in Singapore. The rich mangrove epiphyte flora has been totally exterminated, and a number of tree species are reduced to populations of a few mature individuals. Many more species continue to survive than the species-area relationship would predict given the 99.8% loss of primary forest. This is interpreted as a result of the failure of equilibrium to be achieved yet in the remnant forest fragments, even after more than a century of isolation. Singapore's secondary forests appear to accrete plant diversity very slowly, even if contiguous with primary forest areas. We conclude that remnant fragments of primary tropical forest, even of very small size, can play a major role in the conservation of tropical biodiversity. The patterns of extinction observed in Singapore indicate that coastal and estuarine sites are in greatest demand for development and therefore must be given high priority for conservation despite their somewhat lower biodiversity. Epiphyte and orchid diversity appear to be very good indicators of the degree of disturbance suffered by a habitat in the humid tropics.  相似文献   

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