气候变化对河西绿洲农业的影响及对策

气候变暖和区域降水变化给河西绿洲农业生产带来严峻挑战.认识气候变化特征及其对农业的影响,提出应对措施,可为区域农业应对气候变化提供科学依据.基于河西绿洲气象观测资料,分析河西绿洲近58年(1961—2018年)气候变化特征,对比讨论气候变化对河西绿洲农业的主要影响,提出河西绿洲农业应对气候变化的适应技术对策.结果表明,...     

气候变化对生物多样性的影响:脆弱性和适应

气候变化对生物多样性影响及其适应直接关系着未来生物多样性的保护.气候变化对生物多样性影响、生物多样性在气候变化影响下的脆弱性、生物多样性适应气候变化方面进行了总结分析,对存在的问题进行了讨论,对今后研究提出了一些建议.过去的气候变化已使物种物候、分布和丰富度等改变,使一些物种灭绝、部分有害生物危害强度和频率增加,使一些生物入侵范围扩大、生态系统结构与功能改变等.未来的气候变化仍将使物种物候和行为、分布和丰富度等改变,使一些物种灭绝、使有害生物爆发频率和强度增加,并将可能使生态系统结构与功能发生改变等.生物多样性适应气候变化包括了自然适应和人为适应两个方面,自然适应体现在物种适应性进化、迁移、生态系统稳定性和弹性等,人为适应体现在种质基因保存、物种异地保护、自然保护区规划设计、生态系统适应性管理、生态恢复和气候灾害防御等.目前,生物多样性对气候变化影响的脆弱性、生物多样性自然适应和人为适应气候变化方面的研究都还不系统深入,需要加强生物多样性自然适应和人为适应气候变化方面的研究.     

东北春麦对气候变化的响应预测

农业是气候变化的主要敏感部门之一,气候要素的变化必然会对农业生产带来影响,反之通过一定的管理措施,农业也可以一定程度上适应气候变化.文章采用英国 PRECIS(Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Simulation)模型输出的未来气候变化情景,利用CERES-wheat模型研究了2070s气候变化对我国东北春麦生产的影响,并对不同地区的适应水平进行了分析.结果表明,气候变化会对东北的春小麦生产带来不利影响,东北西部地区产量下降明显,灌溉春麦的产量降低幅度小于雨养春麦.CO2的肥效作用可以缓解产量的降低幅度,同时通过品种更换以及灌溉等措施也可以降低不利影响,综合的适应措施较单一措施的补偿效果更好.     

福建武夷山气候变化与林业有害生物对植被生态的影响

以武夷山为研究区域,应用2000—2019年武夷山植被生态质量指数、气候要素观测资料和林业有害生物监测资料,统计分析植被生态质量指数月、季、年多时间尺度特征,对月、年时间尺度影响植被生态质量指数的平均气温、降水量基本气候要素进行相关分析,并对武夷山林业有害生物松毛虫发生的气候影响因子和植被生态质量指数的关系进行分析.研...     

气候变化对我国白枕鹤繁殖地分布的影响

基于白枕鹤(Grus vipio)在我国东北地区繁殖地分布数据,以温度、降水等数据作为预测的环境因子,利用最大熵模型(Maxent)预测白枕鹤在我国东北地区的繁殖地潜在分布。在此基础上耦合3种大气环流模型,同时结合2种气候情景,预测气候变化对我国东北白枕鹤繁殖地分布的影响。结果表明,在未来气候变化情景下,白枕鹤的繁殖地分布范围有减少趋势,且分布地区向北及向西移动。其中,A2情景变化程度大于B2情景,向北及向西移动的趋势更加明显,显示气候变化对白枕鹤繁殖地分布有显著影响。     

气候变化背景下“龙舟水”特征及其对广东早稻产量的影响

利用广东省86个气象站1961—2010年降水资料,借用数理统计方法分析气候变暖背景下广东省＂龙舟水＂变化特点;再利用广东省1983—2010年早稻产量资料及12个一级农业气象观测站1997—2010年早稻生育期观测资料,采用正交多项式等方法分析广东省＂龙舟水＂对早稻产量的影响。结果表明：自1997年以来,全省和各区域＂龙舟水＂过程总雨量、过程天数和严重过程天数都增加;＂龙舟水＂期间的降水集中期推后;6月中旬雨量与6月上旬雨量相比有增加的趋势。＂龙舟水＂过程雨量、过程天数和严重过程天数与早稻产量有明显的负相关,其中早稻抽穗普遍期前后5 d雨量对早稻产量影响最大;各区域早稻抽穗普遍期前后5 d处于多雨时段,若抽穗期适当提前就处于少雨时段。在此基础上,建议广东省早稻要通过调整种植期来适应气候变化。     

群落中物种多度格局的研究综述

物种多度格局是群落结构的重要内容，但在目前的生态学研究中对其重视不够；多度格局研究早在３０年代就开始，在过去的数十年中得到了重要发展；现已建立了多种多度格局模型，它们各有所长；多度格局与物种多样性指数结合，对群落结构研究更具意义；在多度格局研究中也有一些问题值得讨论。     

物种分布宽度对种子植物物种丰富度垂直分布格局及"中间膨胀效应"的影响

物种丰富度的垂直分布格局是生态学研究的重要课题之一.文章以云南楚雄地区为例探讨物种分布宽度对种子植物物种丰富度垂直分布格局及"中间膨胀效应"的影响.利用大尺度的物种分布数据建立物种分布数据库,同时结合地形信息,分析了研究区域内物种丰富度的海拔分布格局以及"中间膨胀效应"对该格局的影响.在此基础上,探讨了物种分布宽度对楚雄地区种子植物物种丰富度垂直分布格局及"中间膨胀效应"的影响.结果表明,随着海拔的升高,物种丰富度先增加,后下降,呈单峰分布格局.物种分布宽度的相互重叠,即"中间膨胀效应"对物种多样性的垂直分布格局具有显著影响.随着物种分布宽度的增加,"中间膨胀效应"以及各物种组对物种丰富度垂直分布格局的影响均呈显著增加趋势,这说明"中间膨胀效应"和物种丰富度的垂直分布格局更多地取决于分布宽度较大的物种.     

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Invasive Species

Abstract:  Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.     

Five Potential Consequences of Climate Change for Invasive Species

Abstract:  Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the "invasion pathway" to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.     

Managing Aquatic Species of Conservation Concern in the Face of Climate Change and Invasive Species

Abstract:  The difficult task of managing species of conservation concern is likely to become even more challenging due to the interaction of climate change and invasive species. In addition to direct effects on habitat quality, climate change will foster the expansion of invasive species into new areas and magnify the effects of invasive species already present by altering competitive dominance, increasing predation rates, and enhancing the virulence of diseases. In some cases parapatric species may expand into new habitats and have detrimental effects that are similar to those of invading non-native species. The traditional strategy of isolating imperiled species in reserves may not be adequate if habitat conditions change beyond historic ranges or in ways that favor invasive species. The consequences of climate change will require a more active management paradigm that includes implementing habitat improvements that reduce the effects of climate change and creating migration barriers that prevent an influx of invasive species. Other management actions that should be considered include providing dispersal corridors that allow species to track environmental changes, translocating species to newly suitable habitats where migration is not possible, and developing action plans for the early detection and eradication of new invasive species.     

Capacity of Management Plans for Aquatic Invasive Species to Integrate Climate Change

Abstract:  The consequences of climate change will affect aquatic ecosystems, including aquatic invasive species (AIS) that are already affecting these ecosystems. Effects on AIS include range shifts and more frequent overwintering of species. These effects may create new challenges for AIS management. We examined available U.S. state AIS management plans to assess each program's capacity to adapt to climate-change effects. We scored the adaptive capacity of AIS management plans on the basis of whether they addressed potential impacts resulting from climate change; demonstrated a capacity to adapt to changing conditions; provided for monitoring strategies; provided for plan revisions; and described funding for implementation. Most plans did not mention climate change specifically, but some did acknowledge climatic boundaries of species and ecosystem sensitivities to changing conditions. Just under half the plans mentioned changing environmental conditions as a factor, most frequently as part of research activities. Activities associated with monitoring showed the highest capacity to include information on changing conditions, and future revisions to management plans are likely to be the easiest avenue through which to address climate-change effects on AIS management activities. Our results show that programs have the capacity to incorporate information about climate-change effects and that the adaptive-management framework may be an appropriate approach.     

Current Practices and Future Opportunities for Policy on Climate Change and Invasive Species

Abstract:  Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.     

Projected Climate Impacts for the Amphibians of the Western Hemisphere

Abstract: Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071–2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate‐change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted‐range species not included in our range‐shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted‐range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad‐scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.     

全球变暖对中国区域相对湿度变化的影响

运用中国气象中心提供的中国标准气象站点实测的50年相对湿度月平均数据,采用等值线分析方法,研究了过去50年中国大气相对湿度的动态变化。分析表明：中国相对湿度区域变化,在秦岭淮河一线以北变化范围明显,主要以相对湿度减小为主;秦淮以南相对湿度变化在区域上表现不明显;从季节分析看,夏季变化幅度不大,其它三个季节变化幅度大,特别是冬季变化幅度最大;从区域看,以青藏高原、东北和华北变化显著。     

Understanding Recent Climate Change

Abstract:  The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 °C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most .     

Cattle Grazing Mediates Climate Change Impacts on Ephemeral Wetlands

Abstract:  Climate change impacts depend in large part on land-management decisions; interactions between global changes and local resource management, however, rarely have been quantified. We used a combination of experimental manipulations and simulation modeling to investigate the effects of interactions between cattle grazing and regional climate change on vernal pool communities. Data from a grazing exclosure study indicated that 3 years after the removal of grazing, ungrazed vernal pools dried an average of 50 days per year earlier than grazed control pools. Modeling showed that regional climate change could also alter vernal pool hydrology. Increased temperatures and winter precipitation were predicted to increase periods of inundation. We evaluated the ecological implications of interactions between grazing and climate change for branchiopods and the California tiger salamander (  Ambystoma californiense ) at four sites spanning a latitudinal climate gradient. Grazing played an important role in maintaining the suitability of vernal pool hydrological conditions for fairy shrimp and salamander reproduction. The ecological importance of the interaction varied nonlinearly across the region. Our results show that grazing can confound hydrologic changes driven by climate change and play a critical role in maintaining the hydrologic suitability of vernal pools for endangered aquatic invertebrates and amphibians. These observations suggest an important limitation of impact assessments of climate change based on experiments in unmanaged ecosystems. The biophysical impacts of land management may be critical for understanding the vulnerability of ecological systems to climate change.     

对全球气候变化原因及发展趋势之浅见

分析了引起全球气候变化的各种可能原因，对温室气体、植被破坏、水汽变化等对全球气候变化的影响作了概括总结，阐述了全球气候变化发展趋势及气候变化预测中应注意的问题。