Performance of adaptive cluster sampling estimators in a multivariate setting

Adaptive cluster sampling has been proven to perform well in a univariate setting, but it may not perform well when there are several parameters of interest. The efficiency of adaptive sampling when there are several variables of interest depends on the relationship of the variables with one another.     

Estimation of the CDF of a finite population in the presence of acalibration sample

We compare the performance of a number of estimators of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the following scenario: imperfect measurements are taken on an initial sample from afinite population and perfect measurements are obtained on a small calibration subset of the initial sample. The estimators we considered include two naive estimators using perfect and imperfect measurements; the ratio, difference and regression estimators for a two-phasesample; a minimum MSE estimator; Stefanski and Bay's SIMEX estimator (1996); and two proposed estimators. The proposed estimators take the form of a weighted average of perfect and imperfect measurements. They are constructed by minimizing variance among the class of weighted averages subject to an unbiasedness constraint. They differ in the manner of estimating the weight parameters. The first one uses direct sample estimates. The second one tunes the unknown parameters to an underlying normal distribution. We compare the root mean square error (RMSE) of the proposed estimator against other potential competitors through computer simulations. Our simulations show that our second estimator has the smallest RMSE among thenine compared and that the reduction in RMSE is substantial when the calibration sample is small and the error is medium or large.     

Identification of the largest individual sample value using composite sample data and certain modifications of the sweep-out method

Cost-effective hotspot identification is an important issue in hazardous waste site characterization and evaluation. Composite sampling techniques are known to be cost effective when the cost of measurement is substantially higher than the cost of sampling. Although compositing incurs no loss of information on the means, information on individual sample values is lost due to compositing. In particular, if the interest is in identifying the largest individual sample value, the composite sampling techniques are not able to do so. Under certain assumptions, it may be possible to satisfactorily predict individual sample values using the composite sample data, but it is not generally possible to identify the largest individual sample value. In this paper, we propose two methods of identifying the largest individual sample value with some additional measurement effort. Both methods are modifications of the simple sweep-out method proposed earlier. Since analytical results do not seem to be feasible, performance of the proposed methods is assessed via simulation. The simulation results show that both the proposed methods, namely the locally sequential sweep-out and the globally sequential sweep-out, are better than the simple sweep-out method.Prepared with partial support from the Statistical Analysis and Computing Branch, Environmental Statistics and Information Division, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC under a Cooperative Agreement Number CR-821531. The contents have not been subjected to Agency review and therefore do not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

Variance estimation in the EMAP strategy for sampling discrete ecological resources

The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) is designed to describe status, trends and spatial pattern of indicators of condition of the nation's ecological resources. The proposed sampling design for EMAP is based on a triangular systematic grid and employs both variable probability and double sampling. The Horvitz-Thompson estimator provides the foundation of the design-based estimation strategy used in EMAP. However, special features of EMAP designed to accommodate the complexity of sampling environmental resources on a national scale require modifications of standard variance estimation procedures as well as development of new techniques. An overview of variance estimation methods proposed for application to EMAP's sampling strategy for discrete resources is presented.     

大气中多环芳烃的来源及采样方式的研究

本文对大气中多环芳烃的来源进行了调查的基础上,对燃源,交通源,等采产方式进行了综述,评价了各种采样方式的优缺点,从而造反我环芳烃污染源解析的采样方式。     

Use of best linear unbiased prediction for hot spot identification in two-way compositing

Compositing of individual samples is a cost-effective method for estimating a population mean, but at the expense of losing information about the individual sample values. The largest of these sample values (hotspot) is sometimes of particular interest. Sweep-out methods attempt to identify the hotspot and its value by quantifying a (hopefully, small) subset of individual values as well as the usual quantification of the composites. Sweep-out design is concerned with the sequential selection of individual samples for quantification on the basis of all earlier quantifications (both composite and individual). The design-goal is for the number of individual quantifications to be small (ideally, minimal). Previous sweep-out designs have applied to traditional (i.e., disjoint) compositing. This paper describes a sweep-out design suitable for two-way compositing. That is, the individual samples are arranged in a rectangular array and a composite is formed from each row and also from each column. At each step, the design employs all available measurements (composite and individual) to form the best linear unbiased predictions for the currently unquantified cells. The cell corresponding to the largest predicted value is chosen next for individual measurement. The procedure terminates when the hotspot has been identified with certainty.     

Vicarious sampling: the use of personal and public information by starlings foraging in a simple patchy environment

Group foragers may be able to assess patch quality more efficiently by paying attention to the sampling activities of conspecifics foraging in the same patch. In a previous field experiment, we showed that starlings foraging on patches of hidden food could use the successful foraging activities of others to help them assess patch quality. In order to determine whether a starling could also use another individual’s lack of foraging success to assess and depart from empty patches more quickly, we carried out two experimental studies which compared the behaviour of captive starlings sampling artificial patches both when alone and when in pairs. Solitary starlings were first trained to assess patch quality in our experimental two-patch system, and were then tested on an empty patch both alone and with two types of partner bird. One partner sampled very few holes and thus provided a low amount of public information; the other sampled numerous holes and thus provided a high amount of public information. In experiment 1, we found no evidence of vicarious sampling. Subjects sampled a similar number of empty holes when alone as when with the low and high information partners; thus they continued to rely on their own personal information to make their patch departure decisions. In experiment 2, we modified the experimental patches, increasing the ease with which a bird could watch another’s sampling activities, and increasing the difficulty of acquiring accurate personal sampling information. This time, subjects apparently did use public information, sampling fewer empty holes before departure when with the high-information partner than when with the low-information partner, and sampling fewer holes when with the low-information partner than when alone. We suggest that the degree to which personal and public information are used is likely to depend both on a forager’s ability to remember where it has already sampled and on the type of environment in which foraging takes place. Received: 31 January 1995/Accepted after revision: 11 September 1995     

A Multiscale Network Analysis of Protected‐Area Connectivity for Mammals in the United States

Abstract: Protected areas must be close, or connected, enough to allow for the preservation of large‐scale ecological and evolutionary processes, such as gene flow, migration, and range shifts in response to climate change. Nevertheless, it is unknown whether the network of protected areas in the United States is connected in a way that will preserve biodiversity over large temporal and spatial scales. It is also unclear whether protected‐area networks that function for larger species will function for smaller species. We assessed the connectivity of protected areas in the three largest biomes in the United States. With methods from graph theory—a branch of mathematics that deals with connectivity and flow—we identified and measured networks of protected areas for three different groups of mammals. We also examined the value of using umbrella species (typically large‐bodied, far‐ranging mammals) in designing large‐scale networks of protected areas. Although the total amount of protected land varied greatly among biomes in the United States, overall connectivity did not. In general, protected‐area networks were well connected for large mammals but not for smaller mammals. Additionally, it was not possible to predict connectivity for small mammals on the basis of connectivity for large mammals, which suggests the umbrella species approach may not be an appropriate design strategy for conservation networks intended to protect many species. Our findings indicate different strategies should be used to increase the likelihood of persistence for different groups of species. Strategic linkages of existing lands should be a conservation priority for smaller mammals, whereas conservation of larger mammals would benefit most from the protection of more land.     

Seasonal Variations in the Metal Concentration of Taraxacum Officinale,Plantago Major and Plantago Lanceolata

The seasonal changes in the concentrations of aluminium (Al), calcium (Ca), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), magnesium (Mg), manganese (Mn), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) in the leaves of Taraxacum officianale, Plantago lanceolata and Plantago major are investigated. the most convenient periods for sampling are established when the elemental concentrations have minimal variation and are independent on the development of the plant itself. On this basis, the presumption is made that the most appropriate sampling period for herbaceous species for biomonitoring processes is the end of blossoming of the plant or immediately after that.     

Predicting the variation in detection function in line transect sampling through random parameter model

A method for calibrating (localizing) detection function models in line transect sampling is proposed. The method is based on a random parameter model which supplies localized predictions of detection function parameters utilizing a few sample data points from the concerned location(s). The method has the clear advantage of being able to provide density estimates based on very few observations from a location which would be impossible through traditional methods. The method is successfully illustrated using census data on sambar (Cervus unicolor) from a set of wildlife sanctuaries in Kerala, India. The need for further research in this direction is indicated.     

Demographic Connectivity for Ursid Populations at Wildlife Crossing Structures in Banff National Park

Wildlife crossing structures are one solution to mitigating the fragmentation of wildlife populations caused by roads, but their effectiveness in providing connectivity has only been superficially evaluated. Hundreds of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (Ursus americanus) passages through under and overpasses have been recorded in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. However, the ability of crossing structures to allow individual and population‐level movements across road networks remains unknown. In April 2006, we initiated a 3‐year investigation into whether crossing structures provide demographic connectivity for grizzly and black bears in Banff National Park. We collected hair with multiple noninvasive methods to obtain genetic samples from grizzly and black bears around the Bow Valley. Our objectives were to determine the number of male and female grizzly and black bears that use crossing structures; examine spatial and temporal patterns of crossings; and estimate the proportions of grizzly and black bear populations in the Bow Valley that use crossing structures. Fifteen grizzly (7 female, 8 male) and 17 black bears (8 female, 9 male) used wildlife crossing structures. The number of individuals detected at wildlife crossing structures was highly correlated with the number of passages in space and time. Grizzly bears used open crossing structures (e.g., overpasses) more often than constricted crossings (e.g., culverts). Peak use of crossing structures for both bear species occurred in July, when high rates of foraging activity coincide with mating season. We compared the number of bears that used crossings with estimates of population abundance from a related study and determined that substantial percentages of grizzly (15.0% in 2006, 19.8% in 2008) and black bear (17.6% in 2006, 11.0% in 2008) populations used crossing structures. On the basis of our results, we concluded wildlife crossing structures provide demographic connectivity for bear populations in Banff National Park. Conectividad Demográfica para Poblaciones de Úrsidos en Estructuras para Cruce de Vida Silvestre en el Parque Nacional Banff     

Methods for estimating the uncertainty in emergy table-form models

Emergy studies have suffered criticism due to the lack of uncertainty analysis and this shortcoming may have directly hindered the wider application and acceptance of this methodology. Recently, to fill this gap, the sources of uncertainty in emergy analysis were described and analytical and stochastic methods were put forward to estimate the uncertainty in unit emergy values (UEVs). However, the most common method used to determine UEVs is the emergy table-form model, and only a stochastic method (i.e., the Monte Carlo method) was provided to estimate the uncertainty of values calculated in this way. To simplify the determination of uncertainties in emergy analysis using table-form calculations, we introduced two analytical methods provided by the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM), i.e., the Variance method and the Taylor method, to estimate the uncertainty of emergy table-form calculations for two different types of data, and compared them with the stochastic method in two case studies. The results showed that, when replicate data are available at the system level, i.e., the same data on inputs and output are measured repeatedly in several independent systems, the Variance method is the simplest and most reliable method for determining the uncertainty of the model output, since it considers the underlying covariance of the inputs and requires no assumptions about the probability distributions of the inputs. However, when replicate data are only available at the subsystem level, i.e., repeat samples are measured on subsystems without specific correspondence between an output and a certain suite of inputs, the Taylor method will be a better option for calculating uncertainty, since it requires less information and is easier to understand and perform than the Monte Carlo method.     

Forks in the Road: Choices in Procedures for Designing Wildland Linkages

Abstract:  Models are commonly used to identify lands that will best maintain the ability of wildlife to move between wildland blocks through matrix lands after the remaining matrix has become incompatible with wildlife movement. We offer a roadmap of 16 choices and assumptions that arise in designing linkages to facilitate movement or gene flow of focal species between 2 or more predefined wildland blocks. We recommend designing linkages to serve multiple (rather than one) focal species likely to serve as a collective umbrella for all native species and ecological processes, explicitly acknowledging untested assumptions, and using uncertainty analysis to illustrate potential effects of model uncertainty. Such uncertainty is best displayed to stakeholders as maps of modeled linkages under different assumptions. We also recommend modeling corridor dwellers (species that require more than one generation to move their genes between wildland blocks) differently from passage species (for which an individual can move between wildland blocks within a few weeks). We identify a problem, which we call the subjective translation problem, that arises because the analyst must subjectively decide how to translate measurements of resource selection into resistance. This problem can be overcome by estimating resistance from observations of animal movement, genetic distances, or interpatch movements. There is room for substantial improvement in the procedures used to design linkages robust to climate change and in tools that allow stakeholders to compare an optimal linkage design to alternative designs that minimize costs or achieve other conservation goals.     

Compensating for the costs of polygyny in hen harriers Circus cyaneus

In polygynous species, the adults are faced with a dilemma during chick rearing. Males must decide how to distribute food between their females and food allocation patterns are often highly unequal. In turn, the females that receive less food from males have to decide how much time to invest in additional hunting. If they spend more time hunting, then they leave their young exposed to weather and predators. However, if they stay at the nest, they increase the risk of their chicks starving. One way that birds may compensate for reduced provisioning is by increasing the size of prey caught. We tested this hypothesis by comparing prey deliveries to nests of hen harriers, Circus cyaneus, with females of different breeding status. As expected, male harriers delivered less food items to the nests of polygynous females, and especially their secondary, or β females. However, both sexes were able to compensate by delivering larger items and there was no difference in the overall mass of food delivered to nests. Moreover, females spent a similar amount of time at the nest, irrespective of status, and there were no overall differences in breeding success. Our results show that polygynous female harriers can compensate for the costs of polygyny, but we suggest that their ability to do so will vary according to the abundance of both large prey and predators.     

Beyond the cage: Ecosystem modelling for impact evaluation in aquaculture

An ecosystem modelling approach was used in two areas of the Eastern Mediterranean in order to examine the effects of aquaculture on the ecology of the water column. Aquaculture expansion to meet demands of a growing population is followed by concerns about keeping impacts within socially acceptable limits. Primarily the study aimed at investigating the fate of nutrients from finfish culture and evaluating changes in chemical and biological characteristics of the water body. The model used, Aquaculture Integrated Model (AIM), is based on a complex generic biogeochemical model coupled to a 3D hydrodynamic model. Selected areas included a finfish farm in the Northern Aegean, Greece and an aquaculture development area in Vassiliko, Cyprus. Ecosystem effects were evaluated on the basis of scale and importance. Scenarios under different production levels and hydrodynamic conditions were explored at the sites. Model results showed that farm discharges are rapidly dispersed from their point source in addition to a tendency for effluents to accumulate at distances not normally associated directly with farming activity. The wide range of parameters available in the model helped identify parameters more likely to be affected by the farming activities. There was a satisfactory correlation between observed and predicted model outputs. This study demonstrates the importance of approaching aquaculture impacts at an ecosystem level and the utility of a modelling tool to this end.     

A frontier model for landscape ecology: the tapir in Honduras

We borrow a frontier specification from the econometrics literature to make inferences about the tolerance of the tapir to human settlements. We estimate the width of an invisible band surrounding human settlements which would act as a frontier or exclusion zone to the tapir to be around 290 metres.     

No evidence for the work-conflict hypothesis in the eusocial naked mole-rat (Heterocephalus glaber )

The work-conflict hypothesis (Reeve 1992) postulates that in eusocial naked mole-rat (Heterocephalus glaber) colonies there is potential conflict between the breeding female and her non-breeding colony mates over how much aid they provide in support of her reproduction. Non-breeders may withhold aid either because they are hopeful reproductives and/or because they have less to gain in terms of inclusive fitness. Breeding females should, therefore, preferentially direct aggression in the form of shoving (prolonged pushes usually involving nose-to-nose contact) towards large (hopeful reproductives) and less related non-breeders to incite them to provide aid. This study tested the following predictions of the work-conflict hypotheses. (1) There is kin bias in the shove rate of breeding females and work rates of non-breeders; (2) Shoving activates work in non-breeders. We found no evidence to suggest that the breeding female shove rate and the amount of colony maintenance activities performed by non-breeders is influenced by relatedness. Body size was a better predictor of work rate and shove rate; large animals were shoved more and worked less. Furthermore, shoving did not affect the work rate of non-breeders and rarely incited activity in inactive mole-rats. Individual mole-rats were also more likely to be shoved when already active than when resting in the nest. These results suggest that shoving by the breeding female may have functions other than the incitement of activity, such as the reproductive suppression of non-breeders. Received: 17 January 1996 / Accepted after revision: 21 September 1996     

A Case Study in Applying the IUCN Regional Guidelines for National Red Lists and Justifications for their Modification

Abstract:  The World Conservation Union (IUCN) published guidelines to apply the criteria developed for global red lists at subglobal levels. So far only a few national red lists have been prepared according to these regional guidelines. We present a procedure based on the regional guidelines that was developed for the most recent red list of breeding birds in Switzerland. Special attention was given to step 2 of the IUCN regional guidelines, which consists of adapting categories according to an assessment of the extent to which extinction risk of the national population is affected by populations in neighboring countries. To avoid subjective assessments we formalized this "up- and downgrading" procedure by defining rules to answer the questions asked in the regional guidelines. Some modifications to the assessment procedure were introduced to account for the specific situation of applying it to birds as a very mobile group and Switzerland as a small country. The up- and downgrading procedure resulted in a change in category for 49 of the 195 bird species assessed. Overall, 9 species were upgraded, 21 species were downgraded by one category, and 19 species were downgraded by two categories. Formalizing step 2 allowed consistent application of the regional guidelines for all species and will make future revisions of the national red list and comparisons between different lists easier.     

泰县2000年环境保护战略目标定量考核指标研究

在泰县２０００年环境保护战略目标的基础上，根据代表性、科学性、政策导向性和可操作性４原则，选择、确定了目标定量考核的指标体系，该体系包括工业污染防治、城镇环境质量、农业自然生态环境质量和经济发展共４类１７个指标，同时提出了阶段考核得分的计算方法。