A simple Lagrangian model to simulate temporal variability of algae in the Elbe River

We present a five-year (1997–2001) numerical simulation of daily mean chlorophyll a concentrations at station Geesthacht Weir on the lower Elbe River (Germany) using an extremely simple Lagrangian model driven by (a) water discharge, global radiation, water temperature, and (b) silica observations at station Schmilka in the upper reach of the Elbe River. Notwithstanding the lack of many mechanistic details, the model is able to reproduce observed chlorophyll a variability surprisingly well, including a number of sharp valleys and ascents/descents in the observed time series. The model's success is based on the assumption of three key effects: prevailing light conditions, sporadic limitation of algal growth due to lack of silica and algae loss rates that increase above an empirically specified temperature threshold of 20 °C. Trimmed-down model versions are studied to analyse the model's success in terms of these mechanisms.In each of the five years the model consistently fails, however, to properly simulate characteristic steep increases of chlorophyll a concentrations after pronounced spring minima. Curing this model deficiency by global model re-calibration was found to be impossible. However, suspension of silica consumption by algae for up to 10 days in spring is shown to serve as a successful placeholder for processes that are disregarded in the model but apparently play an important role in the distinctly marked period of model failure. For the remainder of the year the very simple model was found to be adequate.     

Exploring the influence of lake water chemistry on chlorophyll a: A multivariate statistical model analysis

A multivariate statistical approach integrating the absolute principal components score (APCS) and multivariate linear regression (APCS-MLR), along with structural equation modeling (SEM), was used to model the influence of water chemistry variables on chlorophyll a (Chl a) in Lake Qilu, a severely polluted lake in southwestern China. Water quality was surveyed monthly from 2000 to 2005. APCS-MLR was used to identify key water chemistry variables, mine data for SEM, and predict Chl a. Seven principal components (PCs) were determined as eigenvalues >1, which explained 68.67% of the original variance. Four PCs were selected to predict Chl a using APCS-MLR. The results showed a good fit between the observed data and modeled values, with R² = 0.80. For SEM, Chl a and eight variables were used: NH₄-N (ammonia-nitrogen), total phosphorus (TP), Secchi disc depth (SD), cyanide (CN), arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), fluoride (F), and temperature (T). A conceptual model was established to describe the relationships among the water chemistry variables and Chl a. Four latent variables were also introduced: physical factors, nutrients, toxic substances, and phytoplankton. In general, the SEM demonstrated good agreement between the sample covariance matrix of observed variables and the model-implied covariance matrix. Among the water chemistry factors, T and TP had the greatest positive influence on Chl a, whereas SD had the largest negative influence. These results will help researchers and decision-makers to better understand the influence of water chemistry on phytoplankton and to manage eutrophication adaptively in Lake Qilu.     

Evaluation and application of a three-dimensional water quality model in a shallow lake with complex morphometry

Fundamental hydrodynamic and ecological processes of a lake or reservoir could be adequately depicted by one-dimensional (1D) numerical simulation models. Whereas, lakes with significant horizontal water quality and hydrodynamic gradients due to their complex morphometry, inflow or water level fluctuations require a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamics and ecological analyses to accurately simulate their temporal and spatial dynamics. In this study, we applied a 3D hydrodynamic model (ELCOM) coupled with an ecological model (CAEDYM) to simulate water quality parameters in three bays of the morphologically complex Lake Minnetonka. A considerable effort was made in setting up the model and a systematic parameterization approach was adopted to estimate the value of parameters based on their published values. Model calibration covered the entire length of the simulation periods from March 29 to October 20, 2000. Sensitivity analysis identified the top parameters with the largest contributions to the sensitivity of model results. The model was next verified with the same setup and parameter values for the period of April 25 to October 10, 2005 against field data. Spatial and temporal dynamics were well simulated and model output results of water temperature (T), dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorus (TP) and one group of algae (Cyanobacteria) represented as chlorophyll a (Chla) compared well with an extensive field data in the bays. The results show that the use of the model along with an accurate bathymetry, a systematic calibration and corroboration (verification) process will help to analyze the hydrodynamics and geochemical processes of the morphologically complex Lake Minnetonka. An example of an ecological application of the model for Lake Minnetonka is presented by examining the effect of spatial heterogeneity on coolwater fish habitat analysis in 3D and under a scenario where horizontal spatial heterogeneity was eliminated (1D). Both analyses captured seasonal fish habitat changes and the total seasonal averages differed moderately. However, the 1D analysis did not capture local and short duration variabilities and missed suitable fish habitat variations of as much as 20%. The experiment highlighted the need for a 3D analysis in depicting ecological hot spots such as unsuitable fish habitats in Lake Minnetonka.     

Marine diatoms grown in chemostats under silicate or ammonium limitation. III. Cellular chemical composition and morphology of Chaetoceros debilis,Skeletonema costatum,and Thalassiosira gravida

Three marine diatoms, Skeletonema costatum, Chaetoceros debilis, and Thalassiosira gravida were grown under no limitation and ammonium or silicate limitation or starvation. Changes in cell morphology were documented with photomicrographs of ammonium and silicate-limited and non-limited cells, and correlated with observed changes in chemical composition. Cultures grown under silicate starvation or limitation showed an increase in particulate carbon, nitrogen and phosporus and chlorophyll a per unit cell volume compared to non-limited cells; particulate silica per cell volume decreased. Si-starved cells were different from Si-limited cells in that the former contained more particulate carbon and silica per cell volume. The most sensitive indicator of silicate limitation or starvation was the ratio C:Si, being 3 to 5 times higher than the values for non-limited cells. The ratios Si:chlorophyll a and S:P were lower and N:Si was higher than non-limited cells by a factor of 2 to 3. The other ratios, C:N, C:P, C:chlorophyll a, N:chlorophyll a, P:chlorophyll a and N:P were considered not to be sensitive indicators of silicate limitation or starvation. Chlorophyll a, and particulate nitrogen per unit cell volume decreased under ammonium limitation and starvation. NH₄-starved cells contained more chlorophyll a, carbon, nitrogen, silica, and phosphorus per cell volume than NH₄-limited cells. N:Si was the most sensitive ratio to ammonium limitation or starvation, being 2 to 3 times lower than non-limited cells. Si:chlorophyll a, P:chlorophyll a and N:P were less sensitive, while the ratios C:N, C:chlorophyll a, N:chlorophyll a, C:Si, C:P and Si:P were the least sensitive. Limited cells had less of the limiting nutrient per unit cell volume than starved cells and more of the non-limiting nutrients (i.e., silica and phosphorus for NH₄-limited cells). This suggests that nutrient-limited cells rather than nutrient-starved cells should be used along with non-limited cells to measure the full range of potential change in cellular chemical composition for one species under nutrient limitation.Contribution No. 943 from the Department of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA.     

Multiple sources of predictive uncertainty in modeled estimates of net ecosystem CO2 exchange

Net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) is typically measured directly by eddy covariance towers or is estimated by ecosystem process models, yet comparisons between the data obtained by these two methods can show poor correspondence. There are three potential explanations for this discrepancy. First, estimates of NEE as measured by the eddy-covariance technique are laden with uncertainty and can potentially provide a poor baseline for models to be tested against. Second, there could be fundamental problems in model structure that prevent an accurate simulation of NEE. Third, ecosystem process models are dependent on ecophysiological parameter sets derived from field measurements in which a single parameter for a given species can vary considerably. The latter problem suggests that with such broad variation among multiple inputs, any ecosystem modeling scheme must account for the possibility that many combinations of apparently feasible parameter values might not allow the model to emulate the observed NEE dynamics of a terrestrial ecosystem, as well as the possibility that there may be many parameter sets within a particular model structure that can successfully reproduce the observed data. We examined the extent to which these three issues influence estimates of NEE in a widely used ecosystem process model, Biome-BGC, by adapting the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. This procedure involved 400,000 model runs, each with randomly generated parameter values from a uniform distribution based on published parameter ranges, resulting in estimates of NEE that were compared to daily NEE data from young and mature Ponderosa pine stands at Metolius, Oregon. Of the 400,000 simulations run with different parameter sets for each age class (800,000 total), over 99% of the simulations underestimated the magnitude of net ecosystem CO₂ exchange, with only 4.07% and 0.045% of all simulations providing satisfactory simulations of the field data for the young and mature stands, even when uncertainties in eddy-covariance measurements are accounted for. Results indicate fundamental shortcomings in the ability of this model to produce realistic carbon flux data over the course of forest development, and we suspect that much of the mismatch derives from an inability to realistically model ecosystem respiration. However, difficulties in estimating historic climate data are also a cause for model-data mismatch, particularly in a highly ecotonal region such as central Oregon. This latter difficulty may be less prevalent in other ecosystems, but it nonetheless highlights a challenge in trying to develop a dynamic representation of the terrestrial biosphere.     

Parameterising competing zooplankton for survival in plankton functional type models

Marine plankton ecosystems are an important component of biogeochemical cycling in the oceans. Operational plankton functional type (PFT) models, that group plankton according to their biogeochemical properties, are currently being developed to resolve biogenic gas exchange between the ocean and atmosphere, and to model the lowest trophic levels in fisheries models. A fundamental problem with these models is that PFTs often go extinct in computer simulations, effectively removing the biogeochemical processes from the models. Cropp and Norbury [Cropp, R., Norbury, J., 2009a. Parameterizing plankton functional type models: insights from a dynamical systems perspective. J. Plankton Res. 31, 939-963] demonstrated that parameter combinations that allowed all PFTs to stay extant for all time in stable, homogeneous environments were rare in a PFT model with two competing phytoplankton and one zooplankton (NP₁P₂Z). In this paper, we examine the dynamical properties of a generic predator-predator-prey PFT model, and apply the analysis techniques developed by Cropp and Norbury to a simple example PFT model with one phytoplankton and two zooplankton (NPZ₁Z₂) in order to explore its properties and parameter space. We find that the properties of predator-predator-prey PFT systems are fundamentally different from those of predator-prey-prey PFT systems. The likelihood of parameter combinations for which all PFTs stay extant for all time in predator-predator-prey PFT systems depends critically on the process formulations used, and the properties of co-existing zooplankton (as defined by their parameter values) are quite different to those of co-existing phytoplankton.     

Estimating photophysiological condition of endosymbiont-bearing Baculogypsina sphaerulata based on the holobiont color represented in CIE L*a*b* color space

Symbiont-bearing large benthic foraminifers (LBFs) are widely distributed around coral reefs. If the physiological responses of LBFs to environmental changes can be recognized at an individual level, LBFs could serve as highly accurate bioindicators. In this study, chlorophyll a, respiration, and photosynthesis of Baculogypsina sphaerulata individuals were measured, and whether these physiological traits could be estimated based on the color of the holobiont (foraminifera and the diatom symbionts) was examined. Chlorophyll a content was estimated using a* and b* values of holobiont color represented in CIE L*a*b* color space. Photosynthetic performance decreased significantly with increasing whiteness (L*). These results indicated chlorophyll content as well as photosynthetic performance of Baculogypsina could be directly estimated using the holobiont color. The increased whiteness in color and decreased photosynthetic performance were mainly observed under low-light environment, possibly indicating symbiotic algae were shrunk into the central part of the host shell due to prolonged exposure to adverse conditions.     

Cell-cell recognition system in gorgonians: description of the basic mechanism

A comparative investigation of the chemical composition of Thalassiosira antarctica var. antarctica vegetative and resting stages revealed C:N and C:chl a ratios to be lower in vegetative cells. These trends primarily reflect vegetative levels of C/cell below, and N/cell and chl a/cell levels above those of spores. There was a change in chemical composition with the initial formation of resting spores, and spores continued to modify their composition while maintained in a cyclic light/dark regime for about one and one half weeks. Most notable was a net increase in carbon and chlorophyll a per cell. Spores then subjected to darkness for over one week appeared to retain most of the carbon and chlorophyll a previously synthesized. These findings support the idea that resting spores enhance the survival capabilities of a species under adverse conditions.     

Dynamique du phytoplancton et matière organique particulaire dans la zone euphotique de l'Atlantique Equatorial

At two fixed stations in the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean (0°–4° W), the physical, chemical and biological properties of the euphotic layer were determined for 14 d (Station A: 5–18 February, 1979) and 13 d (Station B: 20 October–7 November, 1979), respectively. The stability of the water column allowed comparison of 3 different “systems”: (i) a well-illuminated and nitrate-depleted mixed layer; (ii) a chlorophyll maximum layer (chl a _max) in the thermocline which is poorly illuminated (6.3% of surface irradiance); (iii) a well-illuminated but nitrate-rich (>0.9 μg-at l^-1) mixed layer. In each layer the particulate organic carbon (COP), nitrogen (NOP) and phosphorus (POP) contents were measured and compared with the phytoplankton biomass. In the chlorophyll maximum layer, the phytoplankton biomass contributed significantly to the total particulate organic matter (between 55 and 75%). In the nitrate-depleted mixed layer, the results varied according to whether the regression technique [COP=f(chl a)] was used, or the chl a synthesis during the incubation of the samples. With the former technique, the phytoplankton carbon (C _p) content appeared minimal, because the y intercept, computed using all the data of the water column, was probably overestimated for this layer. POP would be more associated with living protoplasm than with carbon and nitrogen in the three layers. In the chlorophyll a maximum layer it constitutes a valuable detritus-free biomass measurement, since 80% of the POP consist of phytoplankton phosphorus. The assimilation numbers (NA=μg C μg chl a ^-1 h^-1) were high in all three layers, but the highest values were recorded in the nitrate-depleted mixed layer (NA=15 μg C μg chl a ^-1 h^-1). In the chlorophyll maximum layer, light would be a limiting factor during incubation: between 10²⁵ and 8.10²⁴ quanta m^-2 d^-1 NA and light are positively correlated independant of nitrate concentration. The growth rates of phytoplankton (μ) were estimated and compared to the maximum expected growth rate. Our main conclusion was that despite very low biomass and nutrient content, the mixed layer was in a highly dynamic state, as evidenced by high rates of phytoplankton growth and short nutrient turnover times (1 d or less for PO-P₄ in the mixed layer versus 3 d in the thermocline). The presence of nitrate in the water column allows the development of a higher phytoplankton biomass but does not increase growth rate.     

Changes in the acitivy of fucoxanthin-excited photosynthesis in the marine diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum grown under different culture conditions

Variations in the photosynthetic activity under monochromatic light was studied in Phaeodactulum tricornutum grown under various culture conditions, with special reference to the composition of photosynthetic pigments. Photosynthetic activity, under light-limiting conditions, was reduced when the cells were grown under strong light. The reduction was more extensive in activity resulting from fucoxanthin-excitation than in that from chlorophyll a-excitation. The diminution in activity for fucoxanthin-excited photosynthesis did not correlate with variations in the pigment content. A similar diminution was observed with chlorophyll a fluorescence upon excitation of fucoxanthin. The change was accelerated by lowering the culture temperature, or limiting the supply of nitrogen source. The results were interpreted in terms of a nitrogen-deficient state for algal cells induced by strong light, low temperature or a limited supply of nitrogen. This leads to a modification of the physicochemical state of in vivo fucoxanthin, so that the excitation energy of fucoxanthin is less efficiently transferred to chlorophyll a. The significance of the phenomenon in the oceanic primary production is discussed.     

A survival-analysis-based simulation model for Russian wheat aphid population dynamics

A simulation model for Russian wheat aphid (RWA), Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko), populations is built by integrating survival-analysis-based development and survivor functions and the same-shape reproduction distribution model in the framework of Leslie [Leslie, P.H., 1945. On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrika 33, 183–212] matrix structure. Survival analysis is utilized to model both the development and survival of RWA populations, and the Cox (1972) proportional hazards model is fitted with the data sets from our laboratory observation of 1800 RWA individuals under 25 factorial combinations of five temperature regimes and five barley plant-growth stages. Rather than using simple age-specific survivor rates as in the traditional Leslie matrix, the survivor functions based on survival analysis describe age-specific, temperature and plant stage-dependent RWA survival probabilities. Similarly, a probability model from survival analysis to estimate the probability that an individual will reach mature adult stage is utilized to describe the development process; this makes the transition from nymphal stage to mature adult stage dependent on RWA age as well as temperature and plant-growth stage.Inspired by the same-shape distribution and rate-summation approach for modeling insect development, a similar approach for modeling insect reproduction under variable temperature is developed. This new same-shape reproduction distribution model incorporates individual variation in reproduction capability, as well as the effects of RWA age, temperature and plant-growth stage. Consequently, the same-shape reproduction distribution model replaces the simple age-specific fecundities in Leslie matrix model. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to introduce survival analysis to simulation modeling in entomology and ecology and also the first to integrate our newly developed same-shape reproduction distribution model into application.     

Deep chlorophyll maximum distribution in the central Tyrrhenian Sea described by a towed undulating vehicle

The towed undulating vehicle (TUV), named SARAGO, was used for two fine-scale surveys between the Italian and the Sardinian coasts during the Astraea 2 cruise (6–7 and 26–27 September 1995), studying the deep chlorophyll maximum distribution. SARAGO sections identify a sub-surface doming with higher chlorophyll a and primary production concentrations in the upwelling area of a cyclonic gyre region, detected by sea-surface temperature images. In the first section, the cyclone presents a double doming, in density and salinity, with shallower and concentrated patches of chlorophyll a for about 2 miles. Twenty days later, the second section shows that the gyre changes shape and extension, showing a single doming with higher primary production and chlorophyll a concentrations, distributed over a large area of about 40 nautical miles. SARAGO allows analysis of this high-variability phenomenon (cyclonic gyre) and allows concentrated patches (2 nm) to be identified, thus proving the importance of TUVs in the study of mesoscale processes.     

Pools of chlorophyll and live planktonic diatoms in aphotic marine sediments

Chlorophyll a and numbers of live pelagic diatoms were recorded from sediment depth profiles at 11 stations in the oligotrophic Øresund, Denmark, in late-June. Extraction efficiency of chlorophyll a analysed fluorometrically did not differ significantly between paired samples of frozen-thawed and fresh sediment. The depth profiles of chlorophyll a could be explained by a diagenetic model involving two different chlorophyll pools: one reactive pool declining exponentially with core depth, and one non-reactive pool, of about 1 µg Chl ml^-1 wet sediment, being constant with depth. The number of live diatoms, quantified by the dilution-extinction method, and expressed in terms of most probable number (MPN), declined from an average of about 300,000 g^-1 in the surface sediment to zero values at a depth of 13 cm. The number of live cells was significantly correlated with the sediment chlorophyll a, and the profiles of live cells as well as reactive chlorophyll followed the same exponential decline with core depth, suggesting that the main source of chlorophyll in the sediment was live pelagic diatoms. Taxonomic composition of diatoms in the sediment, dominated by the pelagic genera Chaetoceros, Thalassiosira and Skeletonema, matched the species composition in the water column 3 months earlier during the spring bloom. Regular recordings of the phytoplankton community in the water column showed that only these specific bloom species could be the source of the sediment content of diatoms and chlorophyll a. Further, the ratios between live cells and chlorophyll a were similar in the sediment and in the spring bloom. A conservative estimate of depth-integrated pools of diatoms in the sediment suggested that about 44% of the total phytoplankton biomass during the spring bloom was still present as live cells in the sediment after 3 months. This indicates that the spring bloom input to the sediment is not degraded immediately by the benthic fauna.     

Estimating the critical phosphorus loading of shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake: Sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty

There is a vast body of knowledge that eutrophication of lakes may cause algal blooms. Among lakes, shallow lakes are peculiar systems in that they typically can be in one of two contrasting (equilibrium) states that are self-stabilizing: a ‘clear’ state with submerged macrophytes or a ‘turbid’ state dominated by phytoplankton. Eutrophication may cause a switch from the clear to the turbid state, if the P loading exceeds a critical value. The ecological processes governing this switch are covered by the ecosystem model PCLake, a dynamic model of nutrient cycling and the biota in shallow lakes. Here we present an extensive analysis of the model, using a three-step procedure. (1) A sensitivity analysis revealed the key parameters for the model output. (2) These parameters were calibrated on the combined data on total phosphorus, chlorophyll-a, macrophytes cover and Secchi depth in over 40 lakes. This was done by a Bayesian procedure, giving a weight to each parameter setting based on its likelihood. (3) These weights were used for an uncertainty analysis, applied to the switchpoints (critical phosphorus loading levels) calculated by the model. The model was most sensitive to changes in water depth, P and N loading, retention time and lake size as external input factors, and to zooplankton growth rate, settling rates and maximum growth rates of phytoplankton and macrophytes as process parameters. The results for the ‘best run’ showed an acceptable agreement between model and data and classified nearly all lakes to which the model was applied correctly as either ‘clear’ (macrophyte-dominated) or ‘turbid’ (phytoplankton-dominated). The critical loading levels for a standard lake showed about a factor two uncertainty due to the variation in the posterior parameter distribution. This study calculates in one coherent analysis uncertainties in critical phosphorus loading, a parameter that is of great importance to water quality managers.     

Application of a three-dimensional eutrophication model for the Beijing Guanting Reservoir, China

The Beijing Guanting Reservoir (BGR) is located northwest of Beijing and has been an important water supply reservoir ever since the construction of a dam near the town of Guanting in 1954. As a result of excessive nutrients and organic carbon loadings from the drainage basin over the last several decades, the BGR suffers from eutrophication as well as other contamination problems and has not been used as a drinking water supply reservoir since 1997. As a management step to restore the reservoir's water quality, a numerical model was developed based on the environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) framework. The model simulated three phytoplankton species based on the observed cyanobacteria, green algae, and diatom concentrations in 2004 for the Yongding arm of the reservoir, which is separated from the rest of the reservoir by a sand bar. The model was calibrated with vertical temperature profiles as well as the observed chlorophyll a and nutrients concentrations in the water column. The calibrated model was further applied to investigate management scenarios, which include reduction in external loadings of nutrients with constructed wetlands, biomanipulation, and transferring water from CeTian Reservoir. All three scenarios can reduce the peak chlorophyll a levels in the reservoir. The background nutrients were high, and reducing the external nutrients was effective only after a reduction in background nutrients after phytoplankton growth. The biomanipulation and water transfer scenarios could also delay the occurrence of the peak chlorophyll a. Because the model was developed based on one year of data, the model can only reveal the short-term effects of applying the management scenarios. Future studies will consider the long-term processes, such as diagenesis, when data are available to predict the long-term effects of the scenarios.     

Effet de l'irradiation gamma (cobalt 60) sur les cultures d'une chlorophycée,Dunaliella bioculata

The influence of gamma radiation on the rate of cell division and the amount of chlorophyll a per cell was studied for Dunaliella bioculata Butcher, 1959 cultures. A decrease in the cell-division rate and an increase of chlorophyll a per cell were observed.     

Structural changes in lake functioning induced from nutrient loading and climate variability

Climate variability is increasingly recognized as an important regulatory factor, capable of influencing the structural properties of aquatic ecosystems. Lakes appear to be particularly sensitive to the ecological impacts of climate variability, and several long time series have shown a close coupling between climate, lake thermal properties and individual organism physiology, population abundance, community structure, and food web dynamics. Thus, understanding the complex interplay among meteorological forcing, hydrological variability, and ecosystem functioning is essential for improving the credibility of model-based water resources/fisheries management. Our objective herein is to examine the relative importance of the ecological mechanisms underlying plankton seasonal variability in Lake Washington, Washington State (USA), over a 35-year period (1964–1998). Our analysis is founded upon an intermediate complexity plankton model that is used to reproduce the limiting nutrient (phosphate)–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (particulate phosphorus) dynamics in the lake. Model parameterization is based on a Bayesian calibration scheme that offers insights into the degree of information the data contain about model inputs and allows obtaining predictions along with uncertainty bounds for modeled output variables. The model accurately reproduces the key seasonal planktonic patterns in Lake Washington and provides realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables of environmental management interest. A principal component analysis of the annual estimates of the underlying ecological processes highlighted the significant role of the phosphorus recycling stemming from the zooplankton excretion on the planktonic food web variability. We also identified a moderately significant signature of the local climatic conditions (air temperature) on phytoplankton growth (r = 0.41), herbivorous grazing (r = 0.38), and detritus mineralization (r = 0.39). Our study seeks linkages with the conceptual food web model proposed by Hampton et al. [Hampton, S.E., Scheuerell, M.D., Schindler, D.E., 2006b. Coalescence in the Lake Washington story: interaction strengths in a planktonic food web. Limnol. Oceanogr. 51, 2042–2051.] to emphasize the “bottom-up” control of the Lake Washington plankton phenology. The posterior predictive distributions of the plankton model are also used to assess the exceedance frequency and confidence of compliance with total phosphorus (15 μg L⁻¹) and chlorophyll a (4 μg L⁻¹) threshold levels during the summer-stratified period in Lake Washington. Finally, we conclude by underscoring the importance of explicitly acknowledging the uncertainty in ecological forecasts to the management of freshwater ecosystems under a changing global environment.     

Aspects of water column primary productivity in the Chukchi Sea during summer

Measurements of primary productivity, chlorophyll a, incident solar radiation, phosphate-P, silicate-Si, nitrate-N, nitrite-N, ammonium-N, temperature and salinity were made in the Marginal Ice Zone of the Chukchi Sea in summer 1974. Low to moderate levels of primary productivity (0.07 to 0.97 g C m^-2 half-day^-1) were observed; primary productivity exceeded 3 g C m^-2 half-day^-1 at two stations. Surface primary productivity was nitrogen-limited at most stations. Mean chlorophyll a concentration in the photic zone varied from 0.4 to 17.8 mg m^-3. Higher concentrations and significant subsurface accumulation of chlorophyll a, reaching 40 mg m^-3, were observed in July at stations near the ice-edge than those in open water. No chlorophyll maximum was noted in September, when values ranged from 0.4 to 2.2 mg m^-3. It is postulated that the contribution of sea-ice algae to the total chlorophyll content can be substantial, but that the stay of these cells in the water column may not be long. Non-linear regression estimates from solar radiation and chlorophyll-specific primary productivity data showed a maximal photosynthetic rate of 18 mg C mg chlorophyll a ^-1 half-day^-1, an optimal light intensity of 54 langleys half-day^-1, and markedly reduced primary productivity at moderately higher light intensities. These features indicate that phytoplankton was shade-adapted.