Value of information analysis for adequate monitoring of carbon dioxide storage in geological reservoirs under uncertainty

As monitoring is essential for the proper management of geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the ability to value information from monitoring is indispensable to adequately design a monitoring program. It is necessary to judge whether the expected improvement in management is worth the cost of monitoring. The value of information (VOI) is closely related to the possible increase in expected utility gained by gathering the information, the concept of which can be applied to such judgement. Although VOI analysis has been extensively studied in the context of decision analysis, its application to the management of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) operations is rare. This paper introduces and discusses the methodology of VOI analyses in the context of monitoring CO₂ storage. A motivating problem with discrete probabilities is used to illustrate the concept of VOI. It is demonstrated that information is not always of value; for information to be worthwhile, monitoring under uncertainty must satisfy certain conditions. This concept is then extended to continuous probability distributions. The effects of prior uncertainty and information reliability on the VOI are examined. It is shown that an excessive improvement in information accuracy yields little value and that the optimal level of reliability can be inferred. VOI analyses provide quantitative insights into the value of information-gathering activities and therefore can be an objective means to adequately design and impartially justify a monitoring program.     

Supplier codes of conduct: Company authorization of subcontractors

Companies continue to build greater sustainability and transparency in their supply chains to increase their business value and to respond to greater stakeholder pressures and expectations to increase sustainability and transparency. As company supply chains have grown and expanded, which presents increased challenges for building greater transparency, it is possible that the use of subcontractors in supply chains has also increased. The amount and impact of subcontracting conducted in supply chains may be of greater concern to certain companies and/or sectors than others, and it may have an important impact on their sustainability efforts. This article assesses the extent to which supplier codes of conduct apply to the use of subcontractors and include a requirement for suppliers to obtain prior company approval or authorization before subcontractors conduct work. Based on a review of more than 50 supplier codes of conduct, the companies that are highlighted in this article for including this requirement are primarily in the apparel/footwear, food, pharmaceuticals, and/or retail sectors. The article asserts that supplier codes of conduct that include requirements for suppliers to protect and safeguard confidential business information could be strengthened to further protect the company's products, integrity, and reputation/brand and increase its competitiveness and resilience by also including a requirement of prior approval or authorization of a supplier's use of subcontractors.     

A review of the PGM industry,deposit models and exploration practices: Implications for Australia's PGM potential

Australia is prospective for platinum group metal (PGM) mineralisation (in particular primary magmatic reef, primary magmatic by-product, late magmatic and hydrothermal, and alluvial placer type) but its known PGM endowment is negligible compared to that of South Africa, Russia, the USA and Canada. Most Australian PGM projects are operated by mid-cap or junior companies and form part of larger, more diverse project portfolios held by these explorers. Most projects were ‘hot’ while market conditions were favourable. However, as other metals became ‘fashionable’ and market conditions for PGM changed, so did the focus of these companies. Pure PGM companies are rare in Australia. The search for and development of PGM-only deposits in Australia are high risk business activities. No new primary PGM deposits have been discovered since the mid to late 1980s and none of the significant deposits that were discovered or evaluated in the 1980s have been mined. This review suggests that at least several A$10 million but more likely several A$100 million were sunk into PGM exploration and development projects but none advanced to the mining stage. The viability of Australian PGM projects is very sensitive to (1) metal prices, (2) the US$/A$ exchange rate, and (3) large capital expenditure requirements relative to the small size of Australian PGM-only deposits. Most PGM-only projects were initiated at times of high PGM prices. However, advanced exploration, feasibility studies and project development always lagged behind the price booms. South Africa, Russia and Canada contain approximately 98% of the known global PGM reserves. This situation has a very negative effect on the Australian PGM industry as the well-endowed nations continue to receive the lion's share of exploration spend and new projects.     

Allocating oil leases : Overcapitalization in licensing systems based on size of work programme

Discretionary systems of awarding exploration and production licences, such as that on the UK continental shelf, often use the size of proposed work programmes as an important criterion. This paper models the effect of strategic considerations on the choice of work programme in such licensing systems. The model incorporates uncertainty about resource size and about the work programmes proposed by competing companies. It is found that competition between bidders results in a level of capital investment which exceeds the profit maximizing allocation. It is concluded that licensing systems which emphasize size of work programme can result in strategic but wasteful overcapitalization.     

Oil Funding and International Financial Arrangements

The traditional source of funds for exploration and development of petroleum resources has been privately-owned petroleum companies. However, many of these same companies have recently borrowed heavily to finance their acquisitions of other petroleum companies. This may limit the ability of those companies to finance future exploration and development efforts, particularly in developing countries. Special financial arrangements may be needed if the funds required are to be available. The form of such arrangements is discussed, and emphasis is placed on the need to reconcile the differing needs of borrowers and lenders.     

Exploratory behavior and the welfare of intensively kept animals

Exploratory behavior is considered under the following categories: (1) extrinsic exploration in which the animal seeks information about conventional reinforcers such as food, (2) intrinsic exploration which is directed toward stimuli which may have no biological significance, further divided into inspective and inquisitive exploration. In the former the animal inspects a particular object; in the latter, the animal performs behavior to make a change in its environment, rather than merely responding to a change. Extrinsic exploration is synonymous with the ethological term, appetitive behavior. It is shown that much of the behavior indicative of frustration reported in intensively housed animals occurs when the appetitive component of a drive rather than the consummatory component, is prevented. Consideration of inspective exploration is necessary for good husbandry practice, for fear is an important competing response. Inquisitive exploration has not been widely investigated in infraprimate species, but the authors present several possible examples in the species of common agricultural animals. However, they suggest that the propensity to show this type of exploration may vary between closely related species. In environments barren to the extent of stifling exploration, animals may develop apathy, and its relevance to animal welfare is discussed.     

On the Role of Fines as an Environmental Enforcement Tool

This paper provides a theoretical analysis of enforcement and compliance decisions when the enforcement process involves significant interaction between a source of violation and enforcer. We show that the comparative static effects of a fine on the probability of a violation consist of a direct effect, which refers to the effect of an increase in the fine on the expected cost of a violation holding the probabilities of enforcementrelated decisions constant, and an indirect effect, which refers to the effect of the fine on the probability of a violation through its effect on the probabilities of enforcement actions taken by the regulator. We show that, in the absence of the indirect effects, an increase in the fine unambiguously reduces the probability of a violation and hence should lead to lower pollution (as expected). However, if the indirect effects are positive and large, an increase in the fine can actually reduce the likelihood that a firm will comply with environmentalregulations. Thus, the increased fines do not necessarily increase compliance incentives.     

Corporate social responsibility, partnerships, and institutional change: The case of mining companies in South Africa

Internationally and in South Africa, mining companies are increasingly referring to corporate social responsibility (CSR) and partnerships in terms of the business case, or the expectation that being responsible and collaborating with stakeholders is good for profits. Based on a case study of platinum and chrome mining in South Africa, this article argues that the business case is circumscribed by companies’ institutional context. In the past, mining companies’ dominant interpretation of CSR has been in terms of charitable donations and support to good causes. These efforts have not alleviated the contribution of mining companies to growing social problems around the mines, primarily because they have not impacted on core business practices and have not contributed to necessary cross‐sectoral collaboration. Recently, however, there has been an important transition involving the broadening of the interpretation of CSR and increasing commitment to these issues amongst corporate leadership. Though market‐based incentives have contributed to this, the key driver has been the State's legislated transformation programme premised on State sovereignty over mineral resources. Hence, while the interrelationship between companies and their institutional context has, in the past, brought about a vicious cycle of irresponsibility and minimal collaboration, this cycle may be reversed into a virtuous one, driven in particular by the State. The broader implication is that references to a business case for CSR and partnerships cannot be relied upon independently of continued efforts at shaping the public sector context of companies.     

Mining and social development: Refocusing community investment using multi-criteria decision analysis

This paper addresses the question: How can mining companies assess social investment projects so that projects create value for the company and communities in which they operate? Mining companies are still wrestling with the limits of their responsibility in relation to social development even though they accept the business case for community investment at a general level. Fully aware of the practical hazards involved in taking an active role in facilitating local development, companies increasingly avoid methods that are overly paternalistic or assume the functions of the national or local governments. Gaining senior management's commitment to long-term social projects, which are characterised by uncertainty and complexity, is made easier if projects are shown to benefit the site's strategic goals. Case study research on large global mining companies, including interviews with social investment decision makers, has assisted in developing a Social Investment Decision Analysis Tool (SIDAT), a decision model for evaluating social projects. Multi-criteria decision analysis techniques integrating business planning processes with social impact assessment have proved useful in assisting mining companies think beyond seeking reputational benefits, to how they can meet their business goals and contribute to sustainable development.     

Mining investment in Africa

Since 1985, there has been rapid growth in the presence of Australian exploration and mining companies in Africa. This paper sets out the reasons for the interest of those companies, now 20 in number, in various African mineral opportunities. Australian companies spent about US$16 million in 1992 on African exploration and evaluation, with over US$130 million spent on new mine development or expansion. The 20 Australian companies operate in 16 African countries, with two areas of focus, West Africa and Southern Africa. Using the responses to a survey sent to Australian companies operating in Africa in 1991, and to companies known to be interested in prospects there, the paper identifies and categorizes the policy and regulatory requirements needed by investors. Although a gloomy picture has often been painted of investment in Africa, Australian companies recognize that their risk taking, in the light of a declining investment climate in other mining areas, could promote a renaissance of world-scale mining in Africa.     

社会主义市场经济体制下的区域规划

建立社会主义市场经济体制，就是要使市场在国家宏观调控下对资源配置起基础性作用。经济体制的改革对区域规划提出了新的要求．它决不意味着取消或削弱区域规划，而是要更好地发挥区域规划在发展区域经济中的宏观调控作用。区域规划是区域经济发展的超前研究，其价值在于具有比较准确的发展预见性，能够提出正确的发展方向和战略。区域规划的核心内容是指导资源优化配置，但它并不具有直接的资源流动机制，只能作为资源流动的信息机制。区域规划发挥宏观调控作用的必要条件是政府立法，公益性设施列入国家或地方的计划，在实施中争取社会舆论和社会投资的支持，对经济落后区域的开发采取国家扶持的政策。     

Two methods to define and compute visual buffer strips in a forested environment

Several approaches can be used to define and construct visual buffer strips around proposed new facility sites in a forested environment. A visual buffer strip of a given value, defines a region around an object within which the probability of an unblocked view of all or portions of it by an observer are less than the buffer strip probability value. Two primary approaches are used to define visual buffer strips that take into account the size of the vegetative elements and their individual effects on visibility. Several variations and combinations of the approaches are possible. One approach defines a visual buffer strip based on the average probability of a clear view of points along the object by an observer; the other approach is based on the visibility of the feature as a whole. The computation and construction of visual buffer strips based on these two concepts are presented. Comparisons of the two approaches for specific feature shapes are also described.     

Mountain goat response to hydroelectric exploration in northwestern British Columbia

The behavioral responses of more than 800 mountain goats, comprised of 195 social groups, were recorded during hydroelectric exploration activities (primarily aircraft) in northwestern British Columbia. Four categories of overt response were recorded during case tests, ranging from maintenance activity to severe flight. More than 80 percent (n=667) of the observed goats elicited some form of behavioral stress-response, with 33 percent (n=265) displaying a severe flight response to local rock or plant cover. Multiple regression analysis inferred goat responses to be statistically independent of the time of year, type, and vertical orientation of disturbance and group size. As expected, significant correlations (p≤0.05) existed between distance of disturbance, geographic area, cover availability, and degree of awareness. Responses were stimulated primarily by auditory and secondarily by visual cues. Repeated aerial and ground follow-up surveys documented temporary range abandonment and changing observability indices (habitat use and activity patterns) associated with areas of intense exploration activity. The assessed data offer mitigation possibilities and enable formulation of management guidelines to lessen project impacts during future exploration, construction, and operation phases.     

DETECTING UNKNOWN INTERVENTIONS WITH APPLICATION TO FORECASTING HYDROLOGICAL DATA1

To accommodate possible parameter changes in time series at times which are not specified in advance, we propose an adaptive procedure for estimating parameters and for forecasting. The mechanism for activating the adaptive procedure is a successively updated change-detection statistic. The statistic has small expected value when no change is present and has large value when change takes place - the larger the change, the larger the statistic. The statistic defines discounting factors which determine how much of the past will be used both for estimating parameters and for forecasting. The change-detection statistic is designed to effect major changes to parameter estimates and to forecasts in a discrete fashion only, as opposed to certain other adaptive procedures that react continuously to perceived fluctuations in data, and so indicate change even when parameters remain fixed. The procedure is illustrated using exponential smoothing and Holt's linear exponential smoothing and is applied to a hydrological series.     

Establishing an effective production sharing type regime for petroleum

The primary reason for developing a nation's petroleum resources for export is to generate government revenues. The goal of most governments is to maximize the net present value of their petroleum revenues subject to efficient exploration and production practices and depletion considerations. This paper seeks to provide a basis for the determination of an effective tax regime that will achieve this goal. The analysis focuses on 12 standard production sharing contract options applied to four hypothetical exploration environments. A relatively recent Resource Rent Tax option is also examined as an add-on to production sharing contracts or other tax regimes. The results highlight the need for governments to understand and to use: (1) appropriate profit criteria, (2) an understanding of multi-national petroleum corporation behaviour, and (3) a priori geologic information in establishing effective tax regimes for petroleum.     

The Use of Ecologically Based Screening Criteria in a Community-sponsored Open Space Preservation Programme

The Meridian Township Land Preservation Programme is the first community-sponsored, open space and natural areas preservation programme in Michigan using ecological principles in the ranking of properties for acquisition. The programme was established through a collaborative, multi-stakeholder effort that resulted in a model ordinance, operating procedures, guidelines for landowners to nominate their properties for consideration, and a set of criteria for property selection. The screening criteria include ecological value, natural or functional value, parcel size, surrounding land use, environmental quality, and aesthetic value. The criteria were developed to reflect principles established by landscape ecology and land conservation objectives to maintain a maximum degree of biodiversity and to develop, manage and maintain ecological infrastructure through management of protected areas. The programme is entirely funded through a local millage, which will raise nearly $10 million over 10 years. The target for acquisition of open space is approximately 10% of the currently undeveloped parcels in the township.     

POLITICAL ECONOMICS OF OFFSHORE OIL

The exploration of offshore areas for hydrocarbons has involved new technical and economic considerations and has posed new problems, not the least of which has been the changing relationship between companies and governments. In this article, the authors present an analysis of the different perspectives and policies which emanate from national governments on the one hand and from transnational oil companies on the other. The issues examined include the considerations involved in establishing exploration legislation, post-discovery problems, the impact on revenues of increased production, the interests of companies in developing fields and the overall economic environment within which decisions have to be agreed.     

Strategic environmental product planning within Philips sound & vision

Until now no structured methodology existed for attuning environmental considerations to the business strategy of companies. The Environmental Competence Centre of Philips Sound & Vision in The Netherlands has developed and tested a methodology for this purpose. This methodology, called Selection of STRrategic Environmen Tal CHallenges (STRETCH), has proven to lead to promising results and should therefore be actively promoted. In this article, the authors show how the application of STRETCH provides the possibility of meeting three main objectives: First, focusing on the incorporation of environmental aspects into the company's business strategy can elicit innovations that may enhance the competitive position of the company by cost reduction and/or higher market shares. Second, the environmental opportunities and threats to be expected in the future can be anticipated in an earlier phase. Through this proactive approach a company can avoid external criticism and take the lead in environmental priority setting. Third, by applying the STRETCH methodology even higher eco-efficiencies are expected to be reached than through incremental, step-by-step environmental improvements.     

On the potential of biological treatment for arsenic contaminated soils and groundwater

Bioremediation of arsenic contaminated soils and groundwater shows a great potential for future development due to its environmental compatibility and possible cost-effectiveness. It relies on microbial activity to remove, mobilize, and contain arsenic through sorption, biomethylation–demethylation, complexation, coprecipitation, and oxidation–reduction processes. This paper gives an evaluation on the feasibility of using biological methods for the remediation of arsenic contaminated soils and groundwater. Ex-situ bioleaching can effectively remove bulk arsenic from contaminated soils. Biostimulation such as addition of carbon sources and mineral nutrients can be applied to promote the leaching rate. Biosorption can be used either ex-situ or in-situ to remove arsenic from groundwater by sorption to biomass and/or coprecipitation with biogenic solids or sulfides. Introduction of proper biosorbents or microorganisms to produce active biosorbents in-situ is the key to the success of this method. Phytoremediation depends on arsenic-hyperaccumulating plants to remove arsenic from soils and shallow groundwater by translocating it into plant tissues. Engineering genetic strategies can be employed to increase the arsenic-hyperaccumulating capacity of the plants. Biovolatilization may be developed potentially as an ex-situ treatment technology. Further efforts are needed to focus on increasing the volatilization rate and the post-treatment of volatilization products.     

Ranking countries for minerals exploration

This paper presents the results of a survey of multinational mining companies pertaining to the ranking of countries for non-fuel minerals exploration in the early 1990s. It ranks countries in order of greatest exploration interest in the early 1990s, as well as countries that have geologic potential but unacceptable investment climates. It provides a list of priority commodities for exploration, the criteria for exploration levels, critical and negotiable factors in selecting countries for exploration, and the investment climate ratings of countries where exploration is probable in the early 1990s. The results of the survey indicate that major minerals exploration activities are concentrated in a small number of countries. Political and economic reforms around the world should increase the number of countries receiving active private sector minerals exploration in the 1990s.