Maternal investment in mountain baboons and the hypothesis of reduced care

It has been argued that female mammals should terminate expensive forms of infant care earlier as habitat quality declines. More recently it has been shown that among a variety of mammalian species, early termination of care is also associated with highly favourable conditions. In this paper we present data on maternal investment decisions among baboons (Papio cynocephalus ursinus) inhabiting the Drakensberg Mountains of South Africa, and compare these with data from East African baboon studies. Mothers in the mountain habitat face a set of environmental conditions where the problem of resource allocation to offspring is expected to be particularly acute. We begin by using the model of Altmann (1980) of maternal time budgets to demonstrate that mountain baboon mothers experience greater perturbations to their activity budgets while suckling than do mothers in other populations. They also provide consistently greater levels of care to their infants and do so in the absence of any form of overt conflict over access to the nipple. Although this investment results in a relative lengthening of the interbirth interval (IBI), it is accompanied by relatively higher infant survival. We argue that factors that influence the maternal strategy adopted by mountain baboons include slow infant growth rates and a lack of predation in the habitat which influences probability of offspring survival beyond the immediate postnatal period. We suggest that both “care-dependent” sources of mortality (e.g. female reproductive condition, the amount of milk transferred to offspring) as well as “care independent” sources of mortality (e.g. predation, infectious disease) should be considered in studies of parental investment. Received: 26 May 1997 / Accepted after revision: 9 August 1997     

Comments on and implications of a steady-state in coastal marine ecosystems

Coastal ecosystems can be thought of as being established by a number of physico-geochemical drivers, e.g. geochemistry and bathymetry of the basins, climate, tidal and freshwater flows, natural and anthropogenic inputs of nutrients and toxins, all of which exert an influence on the resulting communities of organisms. Depending on the interactions among the major drivers, ecosystems may occur on both large and small scales and be basin-wide or within basins. For individual and separate ecosystems to exist with some permanence in time, e.g. reach a steady-state, they also have to be ‘defended’. Defences are mechanisms that counter changes to maintain the status quo. We argue, and present evidence to support the notion, that the defence mechanisms are inextricably tied to primary production and the biogeochemical cycling of organic matter and provide buffers that mitigate potentially adverse impacts by trace toxins. Colloid pumping, production of complexing ligands and sulfide formation are some of the mechanisms that control trace substances. Current methods for assessing ecosystems do not address the issue of steady-state, nor do they take account of defence activities, e.g. buffering. Therefore, they cannot assess the ‘robustness’ of ecosystems or their ability to resist change, for good or bad. Also, defence mechanisms may, for a time, mask future potentially serious impacts, suggesting that monitoring efforts with limited budgets should consider the measurement of the inputs into ecosystems as well as the immediate or short-term result of the inputs.     

Combining Structured Decision Making and Value‐of‐Information Analyses to Identify Robust Management Strategies

Abstract: Structured decision making and value‐of‐information analyses can be used to identify robust management strategies even when uncertainty about the response of the system to management is high. We used these methods in a case study of management of the non‐native invasive species gray sallow willow (Salix cinerea) in alpine Australia. Establishment of this species is facilitated by wildfire. Managers are charged with developing a management strategy despite extensive uncertainty regarding the frequency of fires, the willow's demography, and the effectiveness of management actions. We worked with managers in Victoria to conduct a formal decision analysis. We used a dynamic model to identify the best management strategy for a range of budgets. We evaluated the robustness of the strategies to uncertainty with value‐of‐information analyses. Results of the value‐of‐information analysis indicated that reducing uncertainty would not change which management strategy was identified as the best unless budgets increased substantially. This outcome suggests there would be little value in implementing adaptive management for the problem we analyzed. The value‐of‐information analyses also highlighted that the main driver of gray sallow willow invasion (i.e., fire frequency) is not necessarily the same factor that is most important for decision making (i.e., willow seed dispersal distance). Value of‐information analyses enables managers to better target monitoring and research efforts toward factors critical to making the decision and to assess the need for adaptive management.     

Identification of the largest individual sample value using composite sample data and certain modifications of the sweep-out method

Cost-effective hotspot identification is an important issue in hazardous waste site characterization and evaluation. Composite sampling techniques are known to be cost effective when the cost of measurement is substantially higher than the cost of sampling. Although compositing incurs no loss of information on the means, information on individual sample values is lost due to compositing. In particular, if the interest is in identifying the largest individual sample value, the composite sampling techniques are not able to do so. Under certain assumptions, it may be possible to satisfactorily predict individual sample values using the composite sample data, but it is not generally possible to identify the largest individual sample value. In this paper, we propose two methods of identifying the largest individual sample value with some additional measurement effort. Both methods are modifications of the simple sweep-out method proposed earlier. Since analytical results do not seem to be feasible, performance of the proposed methods is assessed via simulation. The simulation results show that both the proposed methods, namely the locally sequential sweep-out and the globally sequential sweep-out, are better than the simple sweep-out method.Prepared with partial support from the Statistical Analysis and Computing Branch, Environmental Statistics and Information Division, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC under a Cooperative Agreement Number CR-821531. The contents have not been subjected to Agency review and therefore do not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

Model estimation of land-use effects on water levels of northern prairie wetlands.

Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region exist in a matrix of grassland dominated by intensive pastoral and cultivation agriculture. Recent conservation management has emphasized the conversion of cultivated farmland and degraded pastures to intact grassland to improve upland nesting habitat. The consequences of changes in land-use cover that alter watershed processes have not been evaluated relative to their effect on the water budgets and vegetation dynamics of associated wetlands. We simulated the effect of upland agricultural practices on the water budget and vegetation of a semipermanent prairie wetland by modifying a previously published mathematical model (WETSIM). Watershed cover/land-use practices were categorized as unmanaged grassland (native grass, smooth brome), managed grassland (moderately heavily grazed, prescribed burned), cultivated crops (row crop, small grain), and alfalfa hayland. Model simulations showed that differing rates of evapotranspiration and runoff associated with different upland plant-cover categories in the surrounding catchment produced differences in wetland water budgets and linked ecological dynamics. Wetland water levels were highest and vegetation the most dynamic under the managed-grassland simulations, while water levels were the lowest and vegetation the least dynamic under the unmanaged-grassland simulations. The modeling results suggest that unmanaged grassland, often planted for waterfowl nesting, may produce the least favorable wetland conditions for birds, especially in drier regions of the Prairie Pothole Region. These results stand as hypotheses that urgently need to be verified with empirical data.     

Evaluating the ability of habitat suitability models to predict species presences

Models predicting species spatial distribution are increasingly applied to wildlife management issues, emphasising the need for reliable methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions. As many available datasets (e.g. museums, herbariums, atlas) do not provide reliable information about species absences, several presence-only based analyses have been developed. However, methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions are few and have never been validated. The aim of this paper is to compare existing and new presence-only evaluators to usual presence/absence measures.     

The value of flexibility in conservation financing

Land‐acquisition strategies employed by conservation organizations vary in their flexibility. Conservation‐planning theory largely fails to reflect this by presenting models that are either extremely inflexible—parcel acquisitions are irreversible and budgets are fixed—or extremely flexible—previously acquired parcels can readily be sold. This latter approach, the selling of protected areas, is infeasible or problematic in many situations. We considered the value to conservation organizations of increasing the flexibility of their land‐acquisition strategies through their approach to financing deals. Specifically, we modeled 2 acquisition‐financing methods commonly used by conservation organizations: borrowing and budget carry‐over. Using simulated data, we compared results from these models with those from an inflexible fixed‐budget model and an extremely flexible selling model in which previous acquisitions could be sold to fund new acquisitions. We then examined 3 case studies of how conservation organizations use borrowing and budget carry‐over in practice. Model comparisons showed that borrowing and budget carry‐over always returned considerably higher rewards than the fixed‐budget model. How they performed relative to the selling model depended on the relative conservation value of past acquisitions. Both the models and case studies showed that incorporating flexibility through borrowing or budget carry‐over gives conservation organizations the ability to purchase parcels of higher conservation value than when budgets are fixed without the problems associated with the selling of protected areas.     

Assessing competition between Steller sea lions and the commercial groundfishery in Alaska: A bioenergetics modelling approach

In the last three decades the western stock of the Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) has declined by more than 85%. Nutritional stress resulting in increased juvenile mortality is one of the leading hypotheses to account for this decline. Competition between Steller sea lions and the commercial groundfishery for walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) has been proposed as a mechanism underlying the nutritional stress. In order to examine the competition component of the nutritional stress hypothesis, we developed a bioenergetics-based model to project the population trends of Steller sea lions under various scenarios of continued groundfish harvest. Annual energy budgets were calculated for the Gulf of Alaska population of Steller sea lions, and compared with projected available energy from walleye pollock under a variety of harvest scenarios. Model simulations produced 50-year Steller sea lion population projections consistent with current trends, as well as with published projections for stable and increasing populations from stable age distribution life table models. Model simulations were unable to produce energy deficits sufficient to account for the decline in Steller sea lions, but do suggest areas where existing data need supplementing.     

Use of Acoustic Tools to Reveal Otherwise Cryptic Responses of Forest Elephants to Oil Exploration

Abstract: Most evaluations of the effects of human activities on wild animals have focused on estimating changes in abundance and distribution of threatened species; however, ecosystem disturbances also affect aspects of animal behavior such as short‐term movement, activity budgets, and reproduction. It may take a long time for changes in behavior to manifest as changes in abundance or distribution. Therefore, it is important to have methods with which to detect short‐term behavioral responses to human activity. We used continuous acoustic and seismic monitoring to evaluate the short‐term effects of seismic prospecting for oil on forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis) in Gabon, Central Africa. We monitored changes in elephant abundance and activity as a function of the frequency and intensity of acoustic and seismic signals from dynamite detonation and human activity. Elephants did not flee the area being explored; the relative number of elephants increased in a seasonal pattern typical of elsewhere in the ecosystem. In the exploration area, however, they became more nocturnal. Neither the intensity nor the frequency of dynamite blasts affected the frequency of calling or the daily pattern of elephant activity. Nevertheless, the shift of activity to nocturnal hours became more pronounced as human activity neared each monitored area of forest. This change in activity pattern and its likely causes would not have been detected through standard monitoring methods, which are not sensitive to behavioral changes over short time scales (e.g., dung transects, point counts) or cover a limited area (e.g., camera traps). Simultaneous acoustic monitoring of animal communication, human, and environmental sounds allows the documentation of short‐term behavioral changes in response to human disturbance.     

Distinguishing between Lévy walks and strong alternative models

Lévy walks are a widely used but contentious model of animal movement patterns. They are contentious because they have been wrongly ascribed to some animal species through use of incorrect statistical methods and because they have not been adequately compared against strong alternative models, such as composite correlated random walks. This lack of comparison has been partly because the strong alternative models do not have simple likelihood functions. Here I show that power-spectra and the distribution of the first significant digits (the leading non-zero digits) of the step lengths can distinguish between Lévy walks and composite correlated random walks. Using these diagnostic tools, I bolster previous claims that honey bees use a movement strategy that can be approximated by Lévy walks when searching for their hive or for a food source.     

The use of systems diagrams for environmental impact assessment: Procedures and an application

The utility of systems diagrams and of energy as a unit of measure for environmental impact assessment is illustrated using results from the White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico Environmental Impact Statement. A set of procedures for developing and evaluating the diagrams is given and applied to White Sands. The utility of results obtained using this method is compared to those obtained from other methods, and the inadequacies of each are discussed.These procedures guide data collection; organize and summarize data; make explicit interactions between the environment and the “proposed project”; place various kinds of impacts and alternatives in perspective with each other and with the entire system; identify components of a macroscale system which need microscale analysis; and permit quantification of total impact and quantitative comparisons of impact types, of alternatives, and of environmental control strategies. The procedures do not guarantee that important impacts have not been overlooked, do not deal with so called aesthetic impacts, and do not guarantee that the appropriate system boundary has been chosen.Impacts at White Sands were evaluated at two system levels of detail. At a macroscale, five types of impacts resulting from missile range activities were analyzed. Results indicated that stresses on the environment caused by those activities represent 1.0% of the natural energy flow through the system. At a more detailed level of analysis, the effect of water consumption by the Missile Range on the aquifer from which the water is obtained was analyzed by means of a hydrologic model. Model simulations indicated that salt water intrusion into the aquifer was eminent and identified two aquifer management strategies that could prevent that intrusion.     

Temporal variability in winter travel patterns of Yellowstone bison: the effects of road grooming.

The influence of winter recreation on wildlife in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), Wyoming and Montana, USA, is a controversial issue. In particular, the effects of road grooming, done to facilitate snowmobile and snowcoach travel, on bison (Bison bison) ecology are under debate. We collected data during winters, from 1997 to 2005, on bison road use, off-road travel, and activity budgets to quantify temporal trends in the amount of bison road and off-road travel and to identify the ecological factors affecting bison movements and use of the groomed road system in the Madison-Gibbon-Firehole (MGF) area of YNP. Using model comparison techniques, we found bison travel patterns to be influenced by multiple, interacting effects. Road travel was negatively correlated with road grooming, and we found no evidence that bison preferentially used groomed roads during winter. Snow water equivalent, bison density, and the springtime melt period were positively correlated with both bison road and off-road travel. From behavioral scans on 68,791 bison, we found that travel is only a small percentage (11%) of all bison activity, with foraging comprising 67% of observations. Also, only 7% of traveling bison and 30% of foraging bison were displacing snow, and we suggest foraging, rather than traveling, is likely the major energetic cost to bison in winter. Bison utilize their own trail network, connecting foraging areas using stream corridors, geothermal pathways, and self-groomed travel routes. Our results indicate that temporal patterns in bison road travel are a manifestation of general travel behavior and that groomed roads in the MGF do not appear to be a major factor influencing bison ecology and spatial redistribution. We suggest that the changes in bison spatial dynamics during the past three decades have likely been the result of the natural phenomenon of density-dependent range expansion, rather than having been caused by the anthropogenic influence of road grooming.     

Standardized reporting of the costs of management interventions for biodiversity conservation

Effective conservation management interventions must combat threats and deliver benefits at costs that can be achieved within limited budgets. Considerable effort has focused on measuring the potential benefits of conservation interventions, but explicit quantification of the financial costs of implementation is rare. Even when costs have been quantified, haphazard and inconsistent reporting means published values are difficult to interpret. This reporting deficiency hinders progress toward a collective understanding of the financial costs of management interventions across projects and thus limits the ability to identify efficient solutions to conservation problems or attract adequate funding. We devised a standardized approach to describing financial costs reported for conservation interventions. The standards call for researchers and practitioners to describe the objective and outcome, context and methods, and scale of costed interventions, and to state which categories of costs are included and the currency and date for reported costs. These standards aim to provide enough contextual information that readers and future users can interpret the cost data appropriately. We suggest these standards be adopted by major conservation organizations, conservation science institutions, and journals so that cost reporting is comparable among studies. This would support shared learning and enhance the ability to identify and perform cost‐effective conservation.     

Benefits of integrating complementarity into priority threat management

Conservation decision tools based on cost‐effectiveness analysis are used to assess threat management strategies for improving species persistence. These approaches rank alternative strategies by their benefit to cost ratio but may fail to identify the optimal sets of strategies to implement under limited budgets because they do not account for redundancies. We devised a multiobjective optimization approach in which the complementarity principle is applied to identify the sets of threat management strategies that protect the most species for any budget. We used our approach to prioritize threat management strategies for 53 species of conservation concern in the Pilbara, Australia. We followed a structured elicitation approach to collect information on the benefits and costs of implementing 17 different conservation strategies during a 3‐day workshop with 49 stakeholders and experts in the biodiversity, conservation, and management of the Pilbara. We compared the performance of our complementarity priority threat management approach with a current cost‐effectiveness ranking approach. A complementary set of 3 strategies: domestic herbivore management, fire management and research, and sanctuaries provided all species with >50% chance of persistence for $4.7 million/year over 20 years. Achieving the same result cost almost twice as much ($9.71 million/year) when strategies were selected by their cost‐effectiveness ranks alone. Our results show that complementarity of management benefits has the potential to double the impact of priority threat management approaches.     

Energetics of Euphausia pacifica. II. Complete carbon and nitrogen budgets at 8° and 12° C throughout the life span

Complete carbon and nitrogen budgets at 8° and 12° C over the life span of Euphausia pacifica were constructed from data published in the foregoing publication. The relative magnitudes of physiological functions such as metabolism and growth for the different life history stages were compared. The carbon net growth efficiency (NGE) for E. pacifica increased to a maximum of 60 to 74% at Calyptopis 3 (a larval stage) and then decreased rapidly to a level of 10 to 12% for adults. The cumulative amount of assimilated carbon or nitrogen in reproductive products was equal to that in growth. The cumulative net production efficiency (tissue plus molts plus reproductive products) is 24 to 29%, and is slightly higher for nitrogen than for carbon. For juveniles and adults, the largest proportion (40 to 65%) of assimilated material is used in metabolism, and is about 10% higher at 8° than 12° C. The difference between measured and predicted ingestion (the sum of metabolism, leakage, defecation, growth, molting and reproduction) probably results from poorly understood aspects of zooplankton physiology (e.g. the effect of body weight on leakage). Nitrogen budgets at 8° C for furcilia bulanced the best, with deviations of less than 10%. In general, predicted ingestion was increasingly less than measured ingestion as body weight and temperature increased. Possible omissions or errors in assumptions or methods that may cause the imbalances are discussed.     

An energy budget for individual barnacles (Balanus glandula)

An annual energy budget was constructed for individual adult barnacles (Balanus glandula Darwin) for the first year after settlement. The production of body tissue, egg, shell, aquatic and aerial respiration, molting and faecal production was determined and consumption was derived from the summation of these budget items. To provide an estimation of the accuracy of the budget equation, energy budgets were constructed for three small groups of barnacles (n=40) kept under laboratory conditions, in which the budget items, including consumption, were determined independently. The results of the laboratory energy budgets indicated that consumption values derived from the summation methods for the three groups of barnacles were 7.4% higher and 16.2 and 15.6% lower than those determined by actual feeding experiments. The average consumption, assimilation and production of individual barnacles were estimated to be 699.5, 647.3 and 159.6 cal year^–1, respectively. B. glandula has an exceptionally high assimilation efficiency (92.5% from the annual budget and 99.3% from the laboratory budgets) but a low gross production efficiency (22.8%) and net production efficiency (24.7%). A very large proportion of energy (67.4%) was lost in respiration. The second most important budget item was egg production (12.3%); followed in decreasing order by: shell production (6.6%)> production of body tissue (3.9%)>molting (2.3%).This paper was presented at the 58th Annual Meeting of the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, San Francisco, 1977, and received the Award for Excellence for the best student paper.     

利用Excel软件做统计描述和方差分析的方法

对数据做统计描述和方差分析的方法很多,通过电子表格Excel软件进行统计描述和方差分析,为研究者提供了方便快捷的分析手段．Excel软件对于非统计专业人员的确是一个易学、易用、高效的好帮手．图7,表1,参5．     

A spatially explicit estimate of avoided forest loss

With the potential expansion of forest conservation programs spurred by climate-change agreements, there is a need to measure the extent to which such programs achieve their intended results. Conventional methods for evaluating conservation impact tend to be biased because they do not compare like areas or account for spatial relations. We assessed the effect of a conservation initiative that combined designation of protected areas with payments for environmental services to conserve over wintering habitat for the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) in Mexico. To do so, we used a spatial-matching estimator that matches covariates among polygons and their neighbors. We measured avoided forest loss (avoided disturbance and deforestation) by comparing forest cover on protected and unprotected lands that were similar in terms of accessibility, governance, and forest type. Whereas conventional estimates of avoided forest loss suggest that conservation initiatives did not protect forest cover, we found evidence that the conservation measures are preserving forest cover. We found that the conservation measures protected between 200 ha and 710 ha (3-16%) of forest that is high-quality habitat for monarch butterflies, but had a smaller effect on total forest cover, preserving between 0 ha and 200 ha (0-2.5%) of forest with canopy cover >70%. We suggest that future estimates of avoided forest loss be analyzed spatially to account for how forest loss occurs across the landscape. Given the forthcoming demand from donors and carbon financiers for estimates of avoided forest loss, we anticipate our methods and results will contribute to future studies that estimate the outcome of conservation efforts.     

Diel patterns of planktonic bioluminescence in the northern Sargasso Sea

Day-night changes in the vertical distribution, intensity, and size of bioluminescence flashes were investigated during a series of cruises to the northern Sargasso Sea in 1987 and 1988. Overall, depth integrated bioluminescence potential and flash density estimated from in situ measurements with a pumping bathyphotometer were 2 to 5 x higher at midnight than at midday. Depths from 50 to 100 m exhibited the most substantial day to night increases in bioluminescence potential and flash density. When classified by flash size (photon output per flash event), the increase from day to night was significant for all flash sizes, but was most dramatic for small flashes producing <7 x 10⁸ photons flash^-1. Bioluminescence potential and flash density increased 2 to 3 x during bathyphotometer measurements made at dusk. Bioluminescent light budgets estimated from day and night net collections in May and August 1987 also predicted 2.5 x higher nighttime than daytime mesoplankton bioluminescence. However, large bioluminescent taxa (mesoplankton) capable of significant vertical migrations only contributed on the order of 15% of the total bioluminescence in surface waters. Our results do not support the idea that most of the nightly increase in bioluminescence potential and flash density are due to vertical migration of bioluminescent organisms; rather they are consistent with an alternate view that photoinhibition of bioluminescent flashing by dinoflagellates may be primarily responsible for the diel patterns.     

Storm-induced transfer of particulate trace metals to the deep-sea in the Gulf of Lion (NW Mediterranean Sea)

In order to calculate budgets of particulate matter and sediment-bound contaminants leaving the continental shelf of the Gulf of Lion (GoL), settling particles were collected in March 2011 during a major storm, using sediment traps. The collecting devices were deployed in the Cap de Creus submarine canyon, which represents the main export route. Particulate matter samples were analyzed to obtain mass fluxes and contents in organic carbon, Al, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb and La, Nd and Sm. The natural or anthropogenic origin of trace metals was assessed using enrichment factors (EFs). Results are that Zn, Cu and Pb appeared to be of anthropogenic origin, whereas Ni, Co and Cr appeared to be strictly natural. The anthropogenic contribution of all elements (except Cd) was refined by acid-leaching (HCl 1 N) techniques, confirming that Zn, Cu and Pb are the elements that are the most enriched. However, although those elements are highly labile (59–77 %), they do not reflect severe enrichment (EFs <4). Most particles originate from the Rhone River. This has been confirmed by two different tracing procedures using rare earth elements ratios and concentrations of acid-leaching residual trace metals. Our results hence indicate that even in this western extremity of the GoL, storm events mainly export Rhone-derived particles via the Cap de Creus submarine canyons to the deep-sea environments. This export of material is significant as it represents about a third of the annual PTM input from the Rhone River.