A Bayesian hierarchical model of Antarctic fur seal foraging and pup growth related to sea ice and prey abundance

We created a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) to investigate ecosystem relationships between the physical ecosystem (sea ice extent), a prey measure (krill density), predator behaviors (diving and foraging effort of female Antarctic fur seals, Arctocephalus gazella, with pups) and predator characteristics (mass of maternal fur seals and pups). We collected data on Antarctic fur seals from 1987/1988 to 1994/1995 at Seal Island, Antarctica. The BHM allowed us to link together predators and prey into a model that uses all the data efficiently and accounts for major sources of uncertainty. Based on the literature, we made hypotheses about the relationships in the model, which we compared with the model outcome after fitting the BHM. For each BHM parameter, we calculated the mean of the posterior density and the 95% credible interval. Our model confirmed others' findings that increased sea ice was related to increased krill density. Higher krill density led to reduced dive intensity of maternal fur seals, as measured by dive depth and duration, and to less time spent foraging by maternal fur seals. Heavier maternal fur seals and lower maternal foraging effort resulted in heavier pups at 22 d. No relationship was found between krill density and maternal mass, or between maternal mass and foraging effort on pup growth rates between 22 and 85 days of age. Maternal mass may have reflected environmental conditions prior to the pup provisioning season, rather than summer prey densities. Maternal mass and foraging effort were not related to pup growth rates between 22 and 85 d, possibly indicating that food was not limiting, food sources other than krill were being used, or differences occurred before pups reached age 22 d.     

A review of recent developments in lake modelling

This paper reviews the lake models published the last five years, mainly in Ecological Modelling. The review shows that structurally dynamic modelling and coupling between hydrodynamic and ecological models are applied increasingly. A number of processes that have not been included in lake models before have been proposed. It has been shown that these additional processes in specific case studies are significant, for instance the competition between phytoplankton and macrophytes or cyanobacteria growth and growth of mussels. It is recommended to study these models for the development of models for case studies where these processes are relevant.     

Residual levels and health risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in freshwater fishes from Lake Small Bai-Yang-Dian, Northern China

The residual levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the liver, brain, gill and muscle tissues of four common edible freshwater fish species including crucian carp, snakehead fish, grass carp and silver carp collected from Lake Small Bai-Yang-Dian in northern China were measured by GC-MS. The distribution and composition pattern of PAHs in the fish tissues, and the effects of lipid contents in fish tissues and the octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow) of PAHs congeners on them were analyzed. The human health risk of PAHs though fish consumptions was estimated. The following results were obtained: (1) The average residual levels of total PAHs (PAH₁₆) on wet weight base in the different tissues of each fish species ranged from 4.764 to 144.254 ng/g ww. The differences in the average residual levels on wet weight base for PAH₁₆ within four fish species were not statistically significant (P > 0.05); however, these within four fish tissues were statistically significant (P < 0.01). (2) There were very similar distribution patterns of PAH congeners among both the fish tissues and the fish species, as indicated by statistically significant positive interrelationships (R = 0.58-0.97, P < 0.01 or P < 0.05). Low molecular weight (LMW) PAHs predominated the distribution in the fish tissues, accounting for 89.97% of total PAHs. Phe was the most dominant component, according for 37.79% of total PAHs, followed by Ant (18.59%), Flo (12.59%), Nap (10.79%), Fla (9.82%) and Pyr (6.43%). (3) The PAHs residues and distribution in the fish tissues are dependent on both the Kow of PAH congeners and the lipid contents in the fish tissues. There was a significant positive relationship (R = 0.7116, P < 0.0001) between lipid contents and PAHs residual levels. The statistically significant negative relationships (P < 0.05) were found between LogKow and log-transformed PAHs contents on wet weight base for all fish tissues except for the muscle tissue of snakehead fish, the brain and liver tissues of crucian carp. (4) The risk levels of total PAHs were lower than 10⁻⁵ for the muscle tissues of four studied fish species and for the brain tissues of grass carp and snakehead fish; while these were higher than 10⁻⁵ for the brain tissues of crucian carp and silver carp. The risk levels of total PAHs in the liver tissues of four studied fish species except for snakehead fish exceeded 10⁻⁵ for 2-4.5 times. However, the potency equivalent concentration (PEC) of total PAHs in four studied fish tissues were still lower than the maximum permissible BaP limits for crops and baked meat and for plants in the national criterions. The distributions of PAH congeners in fish were well simulated by a level III fugacity model, especially for low molecule weight PAHs.     

A mesoscale vortex in a small stratified lake

A mesoscale vortex structure in the small stratified Lake Stechlin has been revealed by field experiments with satellite-tracked quasi-lagrangian drifters. The vortex with a radius of about 200 m drifted at 300 m/day along the western bight of the lake with nearly constant rotation speed of 3 cpd. Analysis of kinematical properties of the vortex motion demonstrates solid body character of rotation. Extrapolation of the vortex drift trajectory over the period preceding the observations combined with data on local winds and seiche dynamics has allowed tracing the vortex fate from its generation point. The normal modes analysis of the internal seiching in the lake reveals the vortex generation mechanism to be the interaction of certain seiche modes with local bottom topography and suggests generation of the mesoscale vortices to be the a regular feature of the lake circulation. Analysis of vorticity suggests additional energy supply to rotational flow, possibly from inverse cascading of small-scale turbulent motions—a feature typical for quasi-2D turbulence. The vortices can play an important role in the energy transport from basin-scale motions to small-scale boundary mixing. They can also contribute significantly to the horizontal heterogeneity of phyto- and zooplankton distribution as well as to the transport of dissolved matter such as nutrients between littoral and profundal areas. The topographically generated traveling vortices represent an analog of the synoptic eddies in the Ocean and in the Atmosphere, whereas their role in the lake hydrodynamics is practically unknown.     

Levels of selected heavy metals in commercial fish from five freshwater lakes,Pakistan

The levels of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn and Hg are estimated by atomic absorption in the muscle of six commercial species of fish belonging to five freshwater lakes of Pakistan. The species included Mastacembelus armatus, Tor putitura, Mystus seenghala, Wallago attu, Catla catla and Labeo rohita. The fish were procured in comparable weight ranges so that a viable comparison of trace metal content could be effected. As, Fe, Pb, Zn and Hg showed elevated levels of 0.006–6.967, 0.933–6.133, 0.060–4.108, 0.978–5.363 and 0.030–3.211 μg/g, wet weight. The relevant statistical parameters, such as standard deviation, standard error, skewness and its t‐value are also reported for establishing the randomness of the distribution in relation to the corresponding data of freshwater lakes of the world and examined in view of species‐specificity and origin.     

Modeling freshwater fish distributions using multiscale landscape data: A case study of six narrow range endemics

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become integral tools in scientific research and conservation planning. Despite progress in the assessment of various statistical models for use in SDMs, little has been done in way of evaluating appropriate ecological models. In this paper, we evaluate the multiscale filter framework as a suitable theoretical model for predicting freshwater fish distributions in the upper Green River system (Ohio River drainage), USA. The spatial distributions of six fishes with contrasting biogeographies were modeled using boosted regression trees and multiscale landscape data. Species biogeography did not appear to affect predictive performance and all models performed well statistically with receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.87 to 0.98. Predictive maps show accurate estimations of ranges for five of six species based on historical collections. The relative influence of each type of environmental feature and spatial scale varied markedly with between species. A hierarchical effect was detected for narrowly distributed species. These species were highly influenced by soil composition at larger spatial scales and land use/land cover (LULC) patterns at more proximal scales. Conversely, LULC pattern was the most influential feature for widely distributed at all spatial scales. Using multiscale data capable of capturing hierarchical landscape influences allowed production of accurate predictive models and provided further insight into factors controlling freshwater fish distributions.     

Evaluation and application of a three-dimensional water quality model in a shallow lake with complex morphometry

Fundamental hydrodynamic and ecological processes of a lake or reservoir could be adequately depicted by one-dimensional (1D) numerical simulation models. Whereas, lakes with significant horizontal water quality and hydrodynamic gradients due to their complex morphometry, inflow or water level fluctuations require a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamics and ecological analyses to accurately simulate their temporal and spatial dynamics. In this study, we applied a 3D hydrodynamic model (ELCOM) coupled with an ecological model (CAEDYM) to simulate water quality parameters in three bays of the morphologically complex Lake Minnetonka. A considerable effort was made in setting up the model and a systematic parameterization approach was adopted to estimate the value of parameters based on their published values. Model calibration covered the entire length of the simulation periods from March 29 to October 20, 2000. Sensitivity analysis identified the top parameters with the largest contributions to the sensitivity of model results. The model was next verified with the same setup and parameter values for the period of April 25 to October 10, 2005 against field data. Spatial and temporal dynamics were well simulated and model output results of water temperature (T), dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorus (TP) and one group of algae (Cyanobacteria) represented as chlorophyll a (Chla) compared well with an extensive field data in the bays. The results show that the use of the model along with an accurate bathymetry, a systematic calibration and corroboration (verification) process will help to analyze the hydrodynamics and geochemical processes of the morphologically complex Lake Minnetonka. An example of an ecological application of the model for Lake Minnetonka is presented by examining the effect of spatial heterogeneity on coolwater fish habitat analysis in 3D and under a scenario where horizontal spatial heterogeneity was eliminated (1D). Both analyses captured seasonal fish habitat changes and the total seasonal averages differed moderately. However, the 1D analysis did not capture local and short duration variabilities and missed suitable fish habitat variations of as much as 20%. The experiment highlighted the need for a 3D analysis in depicting ecological hot spots such as unsuitable fish habitats in Lake Minnetonka.     

Structural changes in lake functioning induced from nutrient loading and climate variability

Climate variability is increasingly recognized as an important regulatory factor, capable of influencing the structural properties of aquatic ecosystems. Lakes appear to be particularly sensitive to the ecological impacts of climate variability, and several long time series have shown a close coupling between climate, lake thermal properties and individual organism physiology, population abundance, community structure, and food web dynamics. Thus, understanding the complex interplay among meteorological forcing, hydrological variability, and ecosystem functioning is essential for improving the credibility of model-based water resources/fisheries management. Our objective herein is to examine the relative importance of the ecological mechanisms underlying plankton seasonal variability in Lake Washington, Washington State (USA), over a 35-year period (1964–1998). Our analysis is founded upon an intermediate complexity plankton model that is used to reproduce the limiting nutrient (phosphate)–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (particulate phosphorus) dynamics in the lake. Model parameterization is based on a Bayesian calibration scheme that offers insights into the degree of information the data contain about model inputs and allows obtaining predictions along with uncertainty bounds for modeled output variables. The model accurately reproduces the key seasonal planktonic patterns in Lake Washington and provides realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables of environmental management interest. A principal component analysis of the annual estimates of the underlying ecological processes highlighted the significant role of the phosphorus recycling stemming from the zooplankton excretion on the planktonic food web variability. We also identified a moderately significant signature of the local climatic conditions (air temperature) on phytoplankton growth (r = 0.41), herbivorous grazing (r = 0.38), and detritus mineralization (r = 0.39). Our study seeks linkages with the conceptual food web model proposed by Hampton et al. [Hampton, S.E., Scheuerell, M.D., Schindler, D.E., 2006b. Coalescence in the Lake Washington story: interaction strengths in a planktonic food web. Limnol. Oceanogr. 51, 2042–2051.] to emphasize the “bottom-up” control of the Lake Washington plankton phenology. The posterior predictive distributions of the plankton model are also used to assess the exceedance frequency and confidence of compliance with total phosphorus (15 μg L⁻¹) and chlorophyll a (4 μg L⁻¹) threshold levels during the summer-stratified period in Lake Washington. Finally, we conclude by underscoring the importance of explicitly acknowledging the uncertainty in ecological forecasts to the management of freshwater ecosystems under a changing global environment.     

Exploring the influence of lake water chemistry on chlorophyll a: A multivariate statistical model analysis

A multivariate statistical approach integrating the absolute principal components score (APCS) and multivariate linear regression (APCS-MLR), along with structural equation modeling (SEM), was used to model the influence of water chemistry variables on chlorophyll a (Chl a) in Lake Qilu, a severely polluted lake in southwestern China. Water quality was surveyed monthly from 2000 to 2005. APCS-MLR was used to identify key water chemistry variables, mine data for SEM, and predict Chl a. Seven principal components (PCs) were determined as eigenvalues >1, which explained 68.67% of the original variance. Four PCs were selected to predict Chl a using APCS-MLR. The results showed a good fit between the observed data and modeled values, with R² = 0.80. For SEM, Chl a and eight variables were used: NH₄-N (ammonia-nitrogen), total phosphorus (TP), Secchi disc depth (SD), cyanide (CN), arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), fluoride (F), and temperature (T). A conceptual model was established to describe the relationships among the water chemistry variables and Chl a. Four latent variables were also introduced: physical factors, nutrients, toxic substances, and phytoplankton. In general, the SEM demonstrated good agreement between the sample covariance matrix of observed variables and the model-implied covariance matrix. Among the water chemistry factors, T and TP had the greatest positive influence on Chl a, whereas SD had the largest negative influence. These results will help researchers and decision-makers to better understand the influence of water chemistry on phytoplankton and to manage eutrophication adaptively in Lake Qilu.     

A simulation model of management alternatives in a freshwater fishery

A model for investigating management alternatives on the Pyramid Lake-Truckee River system of Nevada and California is presented. Cutthroat trout, Cui-ui, Tahoe Sucker and Tui Chub are modeled with special emphasis on river spawning by trout. Management decision variables include hatchery input, water flow control, and diversion screening. Preliminary results indicate that some hatchery input will be needed to support the trout even with the best river management.     

Using a model selection criterion to identify appropriate complexity in aquatic biogeochemical models

Aquatic biogeochemical models are widely used as tools for understanding aquatic ecosystems and predicting their response to various stimuli (e.g., nutrient loading, toxic substances, climate change). Due to the complexity of these systems, such models are often elaborate and include a large number of estimated parameters. However, correspondingly large data sets are rarely available for calibration purposes, leading to models that may be overfit and possess reduced predictive capabilities. We apply, for the first time, information-theoretic model-selection techniques to a set of spatially explicit (1D) algal dynamics models of varying parameter dimension. We demonstrate that increases in complexity tend to produce a better model fit to calibration data, but beyond a certain degree of complexity the benefits of adding parameters are diminished (the risk of overfitting becomes greater). The particular approach taken here is computationally expensive, but several suggestions are made as to how multimodel methods may practically be extended to more sophisticated models.     

Distribution of mercury in the sediments of some freshwater bodies in Ethiopia

Sediment samples were collected from Tinishu Akaki River (TAR), Lake Awassa, and Lake Ziway, Ethiopia for determination of mercury. The air-dried samples were analyzed for mercury with a differential atomic absorption spectrometer after thermal evaporation of bound mercury converting it to its atomic form. Certified reference materials (CRMs) of sediments and soils were used to validate the method. The recovery of mercury from CRMs and sediments was in the range of 95–100%. The limit of detection for the determination of mercury was 50?ng?kg^?1. The concentration of total mercury in the sediments varied from 3.9 to 110?µg?kg^?1 for TAR, 14 to 67?µg?kg^?1 for Lake Awassa, and 17 to 110?µg?kg^?1 for Lake Ziway. It was found that the total mercury concentrations in all samples were below the United States Environmental Protection Agency guideline of 200?µg?kg^?1.     

Elemental composition of surface waters in the Antarctic Peninsula and interactions with the environment

The fast changes in chemical and biological properties of many coastal and inland waters in the last decades reflect the pressure of man on the environment. The surface waters of the Antarctic Peninsula, located far from industrial or populated areas, could eventually be used as background lines. Surface water samples were taken from five lagoons of King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula, and from the Kitiesh Lake. Sample pH and electrical conductivity were analysed in situ and in the laboratory, respectively. The dissolved fractions were analysed in 1997 and 1998. Total concentrations only for 1998 were determined in another fraction adjusted to pH 2. Aluminium, Ca, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Sr, Cd, Sn, Sb, Ba, Bi, and Pb were quantified in all samples by means of inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Total and dissolved elemental concentrations were discussed considering the composition of particulate material suspended in the waters removed by streams or by water runoff, or from atmospheric aerosols. Concentrations of dissolved elements change from one lagoon to another. Total and dissolved elemental concentrations could be related to water movement by windstorms, to chemical mechanisms in water and/or to natural and anthropogenic atmospheric factors.     

Optimal control of lake pH for mercury bioaccumulation control

Mercury is recognized internationally as an important pollutant since mercury and its compounds are persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic, and pose human and ecosystem risks. A critical aspect of mercury cycling is its bioaccumulation, mainly as methylmercury, along the aquatic food web resulting in high risk of human exposure through contaminated fish consumption. Since lake acidity (pH) and mercury methylation are correlated, control of lake pH through lake liming is a possible option to mitigate mercury bioaccumulation. This work proposes to use optimal control theory to derive time-dependent lake liming strategies for a tighter control of lake pH. Since the behavior of the freshwater ecosystems such as lakes is often associated with considerable uncertainties, a robust and realistic analysis should incorporate such uncertainties. This work models the time-dependent uncertain variations in the basic lake pH value and derives the liming profiles in the presence of such seasonal pH fluctuations. Established techniques from real options theory are employed for modeling the uncertainty as a stochastic process, and stochastic optimal control is used for deriving liming profiles. The approach is critically evaluated through applications to various case study lakes. Considering the substantial costs associated with liming operations, the work formulates a multi-objective problem highlighting the tradeoff between accurate pH control and liming cost. The results of the control problem solution are also compared with heuristics based liming. The results, while highlighting the success of using time-dependent liming, put forth certain interesting aspects that might be helpful to a decision maker. The analysis is expected to make liming operation more reliable, thereby presenting one more tool to manage the harmful effects of mercury pollution.     

A numerical model of periodically forced circulation near the shore of a lake

Numerical calculations for a model of the near-shore circulation in a lake subject to two diurnal forcing mechanisms are presented. The first mechanism is a heating/cooling term in the heat equation representing the daytime heating and nighttime cooling of the diurnal cycle. The second is a periodic surface stress modelling a sea-breeze/gully wind system typical of some coastal regions. The two forcing mechanisms can either act together or against each other depending on their relative phase. The numerical solutions are compared with previously published analytical solutions and used to explore the extra dynamics associated with non-linear effects (specifically advection). The latter dynamics include the formation of gravity currents and unstable density profiles leading to secondary circulation.     

A hierarchical analysis of terrestrial ecosystem model Biome-BGC: Equilibrium analysis and model calibration

The increasing complexity of ecosystem models represents a major difficulty in tuning model parameters and analyzing simulated results. To address this problem, this study develops a hierarchical scheme that simplifies the Biome-BGC model into three functionally cascaded tiers and analyzes them sequentially. The first-tier model focuses on leaf-level ecophysiological processes; it simulates evapotranspiration and photosynthesis with prescribed leaf area index (LAI). The restriction on LAI is then lifted in the following two model tiers, which analyze how carbon and nitrogen is cycled at the whole-plant level (the second tier) and in all litter/soil pools (the third tier) to dynamically support the prescribed canopy. In particular, this study analyzes the steady state of these two model tiers by a set of equilibrium equations that are derived from Biome-BGC algorithms and are based on the principle of mass balance. Instead of spinning-up the model for thousands of climate years, these equations are able to estimate carbon/nitrogen stocks and fluxes of the target (steady-state) ecosystem directly from the results obtained by the first-tier model. The model hierarchy is examined with model experiments at four AmeriFlux sites. The results indicate that the proposed scheme can effectively calibrate Biome-BGC to simulate observed fluxes of evapotranspiration and photosynthesis; and the carbon/nitrogen stocks estimated by the equilibrium analysis approach are highly consistent with the results of model simulations. Therefore, the scheme developed in this study may serve as a practical guide to calibrate/analyze Biome-BGC; it also provides an efficient way to solve the problem of model spin-up, especially for applications over large regions. The same methodology may help analyze other similar ecosystem models as well.     

浮叶植物重建对富营养化湖泊氮磷营养水平的影响

利用太湖五里湖污染底泥，在不破坏表层沉积物形态和结构的情况下，利用大口径的采样器采集沉积物柱状样，研究浮叶植物荇菜（Limnanthemun nymphoides）在此底泥上适应性生长情况及其对水体以及沉积物中氮磷的影响。结果表明，在培养实验过程中，荇菜生长使上覆水体中的氮、磷营养水平逐渐降低，藻类的生长明显受到克制，水体透明度增加，水质逐渐改善。通过植物根系对沉积物和问隙水中营养盐的直接吸收，使表层（0～5cm）沉积物与问隙水中氮磷营养盐的水平在实验结束后有明皿下降，对于控制沉积物内源营养盐释放有重要的作用。因此，恢复以水生植物为丰的水生生态系统足重建富营养湖泊生态系统和控制湖泊内源负荷的重要措施。     

A spatial zero-inflated poisson regression model for oak regeneration

Ecological counts data are often characterized by an excess of zeros and spatial dependence. Excess zeros can occur in regions outside the range of the distribution of a given species. A zero-inflated Poisson regression model is developed, under which the species range is determined by a spatial probit model, including physical variables as covariates. Within that range, species counts are independently drawn from a Poisson distribution whose mean depends on biotic variables. Bayesian inference for this model is illustrated using data on oak seedling counts. Received: May 2004 / Revised: December 2004     

山水风景地区控规指标体系构建及指标赋值方法的探析——以千岛湖为例

为解决现行的传统城市地区控制性详细规划（简称控规,后同）对山水风景地区控制不力的现象,以千岛湖地区为例,对山水风景地区控规进行了探讨,对控规指标体系的内容和赋值方法进行了有针对性的扩展和改进。借助GIS等技术手段,对地方性特色元素进行分析,并以此为基础,建立了以”分区控制和分类引导”为核心的控制指标体系。将单一地块进一步划分为亚区域进行分别控制,同时通过图示的方式对不同的建设类型进行引导。根据山水风景地区的建设特征,进一步引入、明确了地表改变率、建筑绝对高度、建筑投影面积等指标的赋值方法,增加了城市设计导引等内容,丰富、强化了山水风景地区控规的内容和可操作性。