四川水力资源开发和长江上游水土保持的思考

四川具有丰富的水力资源，在西部大开发的形势下，将大力进行开发。根据四川境内的四大河流流域的水土流失及河道泥沙资料，经初步分析，认为水土流失与河道泥沙的关系非常密切，二者成正相关态势。然后，进一步探讨了长江上游水利工程在阻挡流失水土进入长江主河道过程中的地位和作用，探讨表明，这些水利工程有效地阻拦了流失水土进入长江河道；与此同时，水利工程，如电站，水库等的库容却大大减少,降低了工程效益发挥，缩短了使用年限。在此基础上，还探讨了控制水土流失，大力开发四川水力资源和进行长江上游生态屏蔽建设的措施。在四川水力资源开发过程中，对四川，对整个长江流域，必须工程效益和生态效益并重，故应当加强水土保持生态环境建设，而生物工程植物治沙措施在这一问题中具有特殊意义。     

Promote Sustainable Development for Irrigated Rice Through SSNM Technology in China

Today, the overuse of nitrogen （N） fertilizer and high N loss result in serious nitrate pollution of water and deter the sustainable development of agriculture and social economy. A recently developed site-specific nutrient management （SSNM） can reduce fertilizer N use while preventing the yield from falling. In this paper, we raise the question of fertilizer N application in rice production through a survey of farmers＇ practice of fertilizer N in 18 villages of four provinces. The average rate of N application for rice production in the 18 villages was 190 kg/ha, and 76% to 100% of the total fertilizer N which was applied within l0 days after transplanting resulted in lots of nitrate leached into water. Furthermore, we tested the effect of SSNM through farmer participatory trial. The SSNM technology maintained rice yields with significantly less fertilizer N and there was no increase in labor input, as much as 31% fertilizer N were saved with the SSNM technology. Finally, the paper points that extension and further research of the SSNM technology should be an effective method to deal with the contradiction of population, food and nitrate nonpoint pollution of water resource and promote the sustainability of agriculture.     

Promote Sustainable Development for Irrigated Rice Through SSNM Technology in China

Abstract

Today, the overuse of nitrogen (N) fertilizer and high N loss result in serious nitrate pollution of water and deter the sustainable development of agriculture and social economy. A recently developed site-specific nutrient management (SSNM) can reduce fertilizer-N use while preventing the yield from falling. In this paper, we raise the question of fertilizer N application in rice production through a survey of farmers' practice of fertilizer N in 18 villages of four provinces. The average rate of N application for rice production in the 18 villages was 190 kg/ha, and 76% to 100% of the total fertilizer N which was applied within 10 days after transplanting resulted in lots of nitrate leached into water. Furthermore, we tested the effect of SSNM through farmer participatory trial. The SSNM technology maintained rice yields with significantly less fertilizer N and there was no increase in labor input, as much as 31% fertilizer N were saved with the SSNM technology. Finally, the paper points that extension and further research of the SSNM technology should be an effective method to deal with the contradiction of population, food and nitrate non-point pollution of water resource and promote the sustainability of agriculture.     

基于环境基尼系数的控制单元水污染负荷分配优化研究

将基尼系数这一福利经济学概念引入松花江流域水污染物负荷分配过程,综合考虑水循环的社会-经济-资源-环境因素,从社会经济发展、科技进步水平、水污染治理水平和资源禀赋差异角度出发,遴选出人均GDP、重污染行业总产值比重、人均水污染物产生强度、工业水污染物去除率、生活水污染物去除率、单位国土面积水资源量、国控劣Ⅴ类断面占比7项指标,以COD及NH_3-N负荷为控制因子,辅以贡献系数这一表征外部不公平性参数,构建了以基尼系数为度量标准的流域水污染负荷优化分配模型,并据此制订了松花江流域33个控制单元基于公平性的水污染负荷分配方案。研究表明,2012年松花江流域基于7项指标的基尼系数值均大于0.4,超过了基尼系数合理警戒线,说明流域控制单元间COD及NH_3-N排放在社会经济和资源环境方面存在不公平现象,其中松花江干流和第二松花江流域是不公平性特征最为突出的两个流域。在Lingo模型优化分配得到的2020年流域各单元COD削减方案中,单元21的年削减量最大,为1.82万t/a,单元10的年均削减率最高,达8%;在相应NH_3-N削减方案中,单元21的年削减量及削减率均为最大,分别达到0.08万t/a及8%。     

甘肃康县棘腹蛙种群资源调查与分析

于2007年4月开始对甘肃陇南市康县分布的棘腹蛙种群数量及其栖息环境进行了为期7个月的初步调查。调查发现：从4月出蜇到8月繁殖高峰期间,种群内成体数量呈现较明显的增加,且距人类生活区越近,种群数量越小。综合调查和走访结果,可以确定棘腹蛙在该地区的种群数量已很少,且各个斑块内均为小种群;影响种群变化的主要因素是人类的活动带来直接和间接影响,如社区居民大量捕捉,农药化肥污染,冶矿企业废水、废渣污染等造成栖息生境退化或丧失;棘腹蛙的生存范围在逐渐地向远离人类活动区域的方向缩减。因此,需要加大保护力度,以确保甘肃南部的这一独特两栖类种群继续生存繁衍。     

城镇化进程中的农民生活用水研究

目前,我国有关农村居民生活用水的系统研究相当缺乏。对地处上海市浦东快速城市化区域的8个村庄进行随机入户调查。在对调查数据进行整理和统计分析的基础上,系统研究当地农民的生活用水行为和影响因素。研究表明：（1）被访农民普遍认为自来水价格过高。家庭收入水平是决定被访农民对水价态度的主要影响因素。（2）自来水价格主要对农户的洗衣行为产生显著影响。认为自来水价格高的农户更倾向于用井水洗衣。（3）影响农户自来水用水量的显著变量包括：农户家庭常住人口、自来水价格、洗衣水源和洗澡方式。（4）被访农民普遍具有节水意识,但大都局限于“节约使用自来水,减少自来水水费”这个层面。提高农民的水污染控制和水资源保护意识,正确引导其井水抽取和生活污水排放行为,促进农村污水收集和治理项目的普及和正常运行,以及完善地下水资源的保护和管理机制是现阶段当地保障农村生活用水安全的工作重点     

Relationship between fluorine in drinking water and dental health of residents in some large cities in China

In this project, the relationship between fluorine content in drinking water and dental health of residents in some large cities in China was evaluated. The concentration of fluorine in tap water and in urine of local subjects of 28 cities and 4 high fluorine villages in China shows a strong positive correlation (r(2)=0.96, S.E.=0.9881). Our studies indicate that drinking water is the most important source of fluorine intake for Chinese people, and in more than 90% of urban cities, fluorine concentrations in drinking water are below levels recommended by the WHO (approximately 0.5-1.0 mg/l). A 1995 investigation by The National Committee on Oral Health of China (NCOH) shows the relationship between average number of decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) of urban residents and fluorine concentration in drinking water to be negatively correlated but not forming a good linear relationship. Our results, together with the previous study, suggest that: (1) dental caries of the study population can be reduced by drinking water fluoridation and that (2) other factors such as economic level, weather, lifestyle, food habits, living condition, etc., of a city can also affect the incidence of dental caries that cannot be predicted by fluoridation alone. Research on the relation between index of fluorosis (IF) and the fluorine concentration in drinking water for the four high fluorine villages showed that the recommended concentration of fluorine in drinking water can protect from dental fluorosis.     

The challenges of water,waste and climate change in cities

Cities play a prominent role in our economic development as more than 80 % of the gross world product (GWP) comes from cities. Only 600 urban areas with just 20 % of the world population generate 60 % of the GWP. Rapid urbanization, climate change, inadequate maintenance of water and wastewater infrastructures and poor solid waste management may lead to flooding, water scarcity, water pollution, adverse health effects and rehabilitation costs that may overwhelm the resilience of cities. These megatrends pose urgent challenges in cities as the cost of inaction is high. We present an overview about population growth, urbanization, water, waste, climate change, water governance and transitions. Against this background, we discuss the categorization of cities based on our baseline assessments, i.e. our City Blueprint research on 45 municipalities and regions predominantly in Europe. With this bias towards Europe in mind, the challenges can be discussed globally by clustering cities into distinct categories of sustainability and by providing additional data and information from global regions. We distinguish five categories of sustainability: (1) cities lacking basic water services, (2) wasteful cities, (3) water-efficient cities, (4) resource-efficient and adaptive cities and (5) water-wise cities. Many cities in Western Europe belong to categories 3 and 4. Some cities in Eastern Europe and the few cities we have assessed in Latin America, Asia and Africa can be categorized as cities lacking basic water services. Lack of water infrastructures or obsolete infrastructures, solid waste management and climate adaptation are priorities. It is concluded that cities require a long-term framing of their sectoral challenges into a proactive and coherent Urban Agenda to maximize the co-benefits of adaptation and to minimize the cost. Furthermore, regional platforms of cities are needed to enhance city-to-city learning and to improve governance capacities necessary to accelerate effective and efficient transitions towards water-wise cities. These learning alliances are needed as the time window to solve the global water governance crisis is narrow and rapidly closing. The water sector can play an important role but needs to reframe and refocus radically.     

安徽省雷电灾害特征分析及区域灾情评估

利用安徽省雷电灾害资料和闪电定位资料,对1998~2012年的雷电灾害特征进行了统计分析,选取年平均雷灾次数N、年平均伤亡人数M和年平均经济损失E作为基本评价指标,利用熵权综合评价模型对安徽省78个县级行政单位的区域雷电灾情进行评估,对雷电灾害强度空间分布做了等级划分。结果表明:2002~2009年为安徽省雷电灾害高发年份;全省雷电灾害主要集中发生在6、7、8月份;雷电灾害发生于城市(县城)的频次要多于乡村;乡村地区的雷电灾害损失类型主要为人身伤亡,城市的雷电灾害损失类型主要为电子设备的物理损害和经济损失;民用、电力和通信为全省主要雷电灾害损失行业。综合灾情指数G分布反映了不同地区受雷电灾害的严重程度,其中南陵县、阜阳市区、马鞍山市区、淮北市区和宣城市区为受灾较重的地区。灾情评估结果可为区域性的雷电防护和风险评估工作提供科学依据。     

Forced internalization of external environmental cost: experience of a South African Company

While environmental regulations are designed to ensure that organizations comply with minimum environmental standards, organizations may be compelled to pay penalties if they exceed the set standard. This study provides explanations on the effectiveness of a forced internalization of external environmental cost in a brewery in South Africa. A review of relevant literature indicates the apathy of organizations to internalize environmental costs. To see whether this apathy still holds, this paper uses the contingency theory approach to management accounting to analyze a case study on the effectiveness of forced internalization of brewery wastewater treatment cost by a municipality in South Africa. Findings reveal that the policy forced brewery managers to develop a waste-reduction strategy to improve production efficiency while limiting the volume of brewery wastewater and chemical oxygen demand emissions discharged to municipal waste treatment plant. A significant implication of this study is the forced internalization of wastewater treatment cost and the use of resources more efficiently and sustainably in production by the brewery as a result of the municipality’s policy to demand extra fees when agreed minimum wastewater discharges are exceeded. The importance of this policy is that it brought about improvements to the environmental, social, and economic performances of the brewery. The study suggests that environmental regulators should look beyond mere regulatory and monitoring roles to formulate policies to ensure that organizations take responsibility for external environmental costs they have created.     

山东省水环境污染的经济损失研究

通过对区域水污染经济损失核算方法的研究，采用恢复费用法估算山东省1997—1999年的水污染损失。山东省年均水污染损失占GDP的0．38％；其中淮河流域的年均污染损失最大。占总损失量的66．82％；单位水量的污染损失以海河流域最大，为0．43元／m^3；淮河、海河流域由于水污染，工农业增加的水处理成本占其工农业总产值的比例分别为0．43％和1．34％。结果表明，山东省由于水污染造成的经济损失已经影响到了山东省的经济发展。     

中国资本回报率:考虑碳减排成本的新核算

对资本回报率进行绿色核算既符合当前绿色发展的新理念,同时也是判断我国经济增长可持续性的重要依据。使用超越对数生产函数估算1960—2014年碳排放的影子价格;利用Hall-Jorgenson租金公式测算剔除碳减排成本的中国资本回报率的动态演变趋势。对中国资本回报率重新估算克服了因忽略碳减排成本而导致的高估,估算结果更加科学可靠。研究结果:(1)中国碳排放的影子价格由1960年的56.34元/t上升到2011年的1651.69/t,根据影子价格计算的碳减排成本占GDP总量的份额年均为31%。(2)不考虑碳减排成本和税收因素的基础资本回报率变动趋势可以划分为三个阶段。1952-1983年为第一阶段,资本回报率在波动中由高位逐步回落。1984—2010年是第二个阶段,基础资本回报率保持平稳。2011年以来是第三个阶段,这一阶段中国的资本回报率呈台阶式下降趋势,特别是2012—2014年,税后的资本回报率已经难以抵补企业投资的机会成本。(3)考虑碳减排成本将导致资本回报率平均下降约12%。其中1960—1975年资本回报率呈下降趋势。1976—2008年资本回报率基本保持稳定,资本回报率平均值为15.2%。2009年以后,资本回报率则表现出逐年下降的趋势,2014年的估算值甚至降为-1%。本文仅考虑了碳减排成本,如果再考虑诸如二氧化硫等废气排放、废水与固废排放的成本后,绿色资本回报率的估算值将更低。建议:在当前的经济形势下,应实施激励企业技术创新以及减税(尤其是生产税)政策遏制资本回报率下降的趋势。另外,需要采取分阶段递增的环境规制政策,逐步实现企业环境外部成本的内部化。     

Assessing the economy-wide effects of climate change adaptation options of land transport systems in Austria

Due to climate change, transport systems are expected to become increasingly stressed by extreme weather and gradual climatic changes, resulting in direct costs within the affected sectors as well as indirect costs from sectoral interlinkages. To reduce these costs, sector-specific climate change adaptation measures are needed, raising the question of the net benefits of adaptation at a macroeconomic level. However, despite their importance such assessments of impacts and adaptation at the macrolevel are scarce and coarse in their implementation. This paper contributes to fill this research gap by analyzing specific adaptation measures for the road and rail sectors in Austria using a computable general equilibrium model. The findings are as follows: First, direct impact costs more than double due to macroeconomic linkages. Hence, the indirect costs are found to be larger than the direct costs. Second, when analyzing adaptation measures for the road and rail sectors, without capturing any indirect effects, benefit–cost ratios imply a clear benefit only for the rail sector. However, when indirect effects via sectoral interlinkages are also captured, adaptation measures in both sectors, road and rail, clearly pay off. Climate change-induced GDP and welfare losses are reduced by 55 and 34% and lead to positive employment effects. Third, even at rather low damage reduction potentials, adaptation leads to a net benefit at the macroeconomic level.

     

青藏公路路堤边坡水土保持措施及效益分析

公路建设加速了区域的原有侵蚀,为了摸清公路边坡的侵蚀特征,寻找有效的防治措施,在青藏公路边坡布设不同水土保持措施的径流观测小区,进行了两年的观测（2003年和2004年）,结果表明：（1）工程措施具有较好的水土保持效益,其减流（减沙）效益在第一年和第二年分别达到3883％（8189％）和48.72％（9581％）,其中截排水措施的水土保持效益一方面说明公路路面来水也是边坡侵蚀的重要动力,有效拦截路面来水将会极大地减少径流和泥沙,另一方面也说明要提高公路边坡土壤侵蚀的预测能力,应该将路面来水作为重要的驱动力之一;（2）植被措施可以起到一定的减流减沙效果,其中人工植被措施有很大的潜力,其减蚀效益都在50％以上;（3）综合措施表现出了极好的水土保持效益（减流在40％以上,减沙在97％以上）,尤其土工格室+植被措施,兼具水土保持与景观双重效益。该研究可以为青藏高原地区的水土保持设计和生态环境保护规划提供数据支持。〖     

沿江大开发背景下长江江苏段水环境污染负荷趋势

沿江开发是当今世界各国经济发展和国土整治关注的焦点,江苏省沿江开发过程中高密度和高强度的产业集聚将对长江江苏段水环境带来压力。根据江苏省沿江各地市社会经济和调查的环境监测资料,分析了沿江大开发背景下长江江苏段的水环境污染负荷及治理现状并预测了未来演变趋势,结果显示:2002年长江江苏段污染负荷的废水总量为210 997.80×10\+4 t,COD\-\{Cr\}总量为380 817.20 t,NH\-3 N总量为28 391.36 t;预测2010年将分别达到395 977.10×10\+4 t、598 197.80 t和42 381.56 t,较2002年分别增长87.7 %、57.1 %和49.3 %。污染源治理方面工业污水90%以上已达到了国家排放标准,而生活污水处理无论在污水处理厂数量还是处理深度都难以满足实际需要。为使长江水域生态环境不受破坏和饮用水源地的供水安全得到保障,提出了优化产业结构、削减污染负荷、加强生活污水处理厂建设和提高沿江主要支流的治理力度等多项调控措施。     

Optimal site selection for fluting paper mill from agricultural wastes in Golestan Province,Iran

Today, the issue of site selection for industrial units in developing countries which are poor in wood resources is considered as a vital matter and it is one of the key measures in the process of building industrial and giving service units. In every country there are some provinces and states which are more useful than other parts owing to primary infrastructures and facilities for industrialisation. As one of the suitable provinces of Iran, thanks to its lignocelluloses resources with 1,822,696 tons of exploitable waste, Golestan Province has a very good potential for building lignocelluloses products mills, such as fluting paper. For this end, in 2010, effective indices in fluting paper mill establishment were recognised in Golestan Province. Results showed that materials and products were the most important main indices and the preparation cost of raw materials was the most important sub-index. Finally, questionnaires were prepared for the best site selection and choices were evaluated according to the structure of interests and costs. The results of calculations performed through analytical hierarchy processes and in Expert Choice Software indicated that Gonbad City had the highest interest/cost ratio, and therefore, it is the best place for the establishment of floating paper mills from agricultural wastes in Golestan Province.     

小农发展气候智慧型农业的效率与成本改进:倡导农地流转还是发展社会服务?

气候智慧型农业是联合国粮农组织所提出的积极响应气候变化、有效保障作物生产安全的新型农业发展模式。碳减排是发展气候智慧型农业的核心要义,而中国大量且长期存在的小农是发展气候智慧型农业不可背离的重要主体。基于湖北省水稻主产区气候智慧型农业发展的调研,继而利用方向性距离函数对小农发展气候智慧型农业,即低碳生产效率与碳边际减排成本进行测算,并进一步考察小农通过土地流转或农业社会化服务衔接现代农业,对低碳生产效率和碳边际减排成本的影响。结果表明:(1)基于小农发展气候智慧型农业仍处于"低效率—高成本"阶段,水稻低碳生产效率仍存在平均56%的提升空间;碳边际减排成本均值为34.13元/kgCE;(2)土地转入虽未能提升水稻低碳生产效率,但却具有碳边际减排成本优势;(3)生产雇工和农机服务对水稻低碳生产效率和碳边际减排成本均具有显著的正向影响,可见通过农业社会化服务实现低碳生产效率的提升仍面临分工与交易费用的两难之困。基于上述结论,提出促进小农发展气候智慧型农业,实现低碳生产相关政策启示。     

基于GIS和PSR的江苏省水土流失易发区划分研究

水土流失易发区划分是新一轮水土保持规划的现实需要。基于PSR概念模型,选取12个指标建立评价指标体系,并采用改进的层次分析法求得指标权重,通过多级加权求和,对江苏省平原区进行水土流失易发区划分评价。该方法以250m×250m栅格为单元,借助GIS的空间分析功能制作各层次指标的空间分布图,并分别从压力、状态、响应3个子层次和综合目标层进行评价分析。结果表明:全省平原区水土流失压力分布较为普遍,Ⅲ级及以上压力区域占全省总面积的40.75%;Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ级易发区域面积分别为10.12%、42.90%、25.73%和1.24%,无Ⅴ级易发区域;最终划定江苏省水土流失易发区面积约占全省总面积的26.97%。具有现状数据的评价单元划分结果与实际情况较一致,说明水土流失易发区划分结果能基本反映江苏省水土流失特点和状况,可作为江苏省水土保持规划的重要依据。     

CGE model-based analysis of the neutralized hybrid carbon policy and its decomposed effects on economic growth,carbon reduction,and energy utilization costs

The hybrid policy is a flexible policy tool that combines features of carbon trading and carbon taxation.Its economic and environmental effects under China's background are still not studied in detail.Given the exogenous carbon reduction targets,carbon prices,and carbon tax-rates,by computable general equilibrium modeling methods and factor decomposition methods,this article investigates direct and cascaded effects of the hybrid policy on economic growth,energy utilization,and carbon emission on the national level and the sector level,with China's national input-output data-set.Stepwisely,policy scenarios with irrational estimated results are selectively excluded based on comprehensive evaluation among economic,carbon reduction and other policy targets.As a result,against national economic conditions in 2007,the hybrid policy,with a carbon reduction target of -10%,a carbon tax-rate of around $10,and a ceiling carbon price of $40,is highly recommended,because of its significant lower economic loss,lower energy utilization cost,and practical robustness against fluctuation of energy market and carbon market.Furthermore,by decomposition analysis,carbon reduction-related costs are decomposed into a direct part that includes carbon allowance price and carbon tax,and an indirect part as the energy price incremental induced by direct carbon costs.Gross carbon reduction may be decomposed into three parts such as energy intensity,economic scale,and technical progress.And,carbon taxation is the main policy tool that stimulates to improve the energy efficiency.     

县域单元美丽乡村建设类型划分与生态廊道构建——以浙江省德清县为例

基于第一次地理国情普查数据,以浙江省德清县为例,探讨县域单元美丽乡村建设类型划分和生态廊道建设。首先,基于自然本底,将村域单元划分为3种类型:山地景观型、丘陵风光型和平原水乡型;在此基础上,考虑城市未来扩展空间,增加都市风貌型,最终将美丽乡村建设划分为4种类型。其次,依据资源空间分布,评价各个村域单元美丽乡村建设潜力,将所有村域分为3个等级:核心建设村落、重点建设村落和一般建设村落。第三,识别出对德清具有重要生态意义的6个生态保护区,考虑不同地表覆盖景观格局对动物迁移的阻碍差异,利用GIS空间分析方法,计算出迁徙成本最小的路径,识别出4条重要的生态廊道。第四,将识别的生态廊道与地表覆盖进行匹配调整分析,最终构建起德清县“六核心、四廊道”的生态空间格局。