预测家电报废量的PQR法

提出了一种对某地区家电报废量的预测办法,该办法考虑了该地区的人口密度、人均拥有家电量及更新速度三个因素。用该办法对浙江省的家电报废量进行了预测。     

预测某市化工废水排放量的GAM模型

常规ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型已在环境科学领域得到了广泛的应用，但该模型在原始序列偏离指数规律时预测精度较差。用灰色代数曲线型模型（ＧＡＭ模型）提高了某市化工废水排放量预测的精确度。     

灰色摆动序列的GM（1,1）拟合建模法及其应用

建立了灰色摆动序列ＧＭ（１,１）动态指数变换拟合建模方法,对某地工业固体废物产生量的预测结果表明,该法合理有效,切实可行,并有良好的精度。     

"等效虚源法"预测噪声

对于面积或体积较大声源的声传播预测,点声源模式已不适用.通过实验拟合提出了等效虚源法,该新方法可简便准确地预测体声源和面声源在不同距离的影响声级;而对于室内混响窗外传声的声影响预测,采用该方法也会使测量和计算变得十分简洁方便.同时阐述了以传统单点测量来确定声源强度方法存在的缺陷.     

扬州市生活垃圾产生量预测

依据2013—2021年扬州市生活垃圾产生量及影响因素数据,运用多元线性回归分析方法,建立了扬州市生活垃圾产生量预测模型。并运用该模型对2022—2026年扬州市生活垃圾产生量进行了预测,结果表明未来5年内,扬州市生活垃圾产生量将呈现缓慢增长趋势,预计2026年生活垃圾产生量将达到180.05万t,年平均增长率为5.11%。     

化工废气排放量灰色预测的GPSM（1）模型

在对ＧＩＭ（１）模型研究的基础上，提出了一种化工废气排放的单变量灰色幂级数曲线预测新模型「简称（ＧＰＳＭ（１）」，并建立了辨识模型参数的优化方法。结果表明，ＧＰＳＭ（１）在有线性输出的平稳系统中，比ＧＭ（１，１）更能反映原始资料提供的信息，系统分辨率高，同态性好，预测精度理想，为环境系统的拟合、预测分析和决策开辟了新途径，从而拓宽了ＧＭ（１，１）模型在环境科学领域中的应用范围。     

造纸法再造烟叶废水COD的快速预测

针对造纸法再造烟叶生产废水COD波动大、废水处理系统运行不稳定等问题,对造纸法再造烟叶的生产废水排放及不同种类废水的水质特点进行了分析。在废水处理系统运行检测数据的基础上,采用数理统计方法研究了废水COD与pH的关系。结果表明:COD与pH呈高度显著的线性关系;用得到的回归方程COD=-2 913pH+22 059对废水COD进行验证和预测,相对偏差在15%以内。本研究为造纸法再造烟叶废水处理系统的运行提供了一种快捷的COD预测方法,有助于提高废水处理系统的处理效率和运行稳定性。     

黄河三门峡段基于马尔科夫模型的水质预测

水质变化趋势预测是维护和管理当前水质状况的重要依据,影响水质的有物理学、化学、水力学、生物学、气象学以及人类活动等多方面的因素,在时间和空间上存在相当多的影响变量.现有的基于数学表达式的水质预测模型很难将这些因素都考虑进去,而且预测的是一个具体的数值.利用马尔可夫链预测水质所处状态概率,实质上是预测水质指标带有一定置信水平的置信区间,在可以完全满足实际需要的前提下,扩大了预测的范围,相对地提高了预测的精确度.介绍了马尔科夫模型的基本原理,并且将其应用到黄河三门峡河段的水质预测中,总体效果基本满意.     

基于粒子群优化的 PI 预测函数励磁控制器

将PI控制器与预测函数算法相结合,利用粒子群算法优化整定其参数,提出了一种新型的基于粒子群优化的PI预测函数励磁控制器的设计方法。该算法具有广义上的PI控制器的两个参数,同时具有预测函数算法对模型要求低和上升速度快等优点,同时利用粒子群算法优化PI参数,使其克服了传统PI控制器参数难以整定的缺点。仿真结果表明该算法不仅能有效的解决机端电压偏移问题,还能有效的抑制电网低频振荡,且具有较好的鲁棒性,同时PI参数整定方便,为电力系统稳定性控制提供了一种新型有效的方法。     

混合水pH值预测计算方法的探讨——平衡常数求解法

本文从化学平衡的角度出发，针对两股水“相互混合→发生化学反应→达到新的平衡“的实际过程，将混合水中的H2CO3、HCO^-3、CO^2-3、OH^-的初始浓度与特定的平衡反应相结合，运用平衡常数求解的方法推导出关于混合水[H^ ]和pH值的计算公式。对公式的验证结果表明：公式计算值与实测值非常吻合，与精确式计算值的差异也非常微小。本公式为混合水pH值的计算提供了一个新的方法。     

风电场环境影响评价原则及评价重点研究

针对风电场环境影响评价的评价原则及评价重点进行了探讨性的研究。提出了风电场环境影响评价应以早期介入和避让措施优先为基本原则;对风电场环境影响评价重点进行了识别,并提出风电场选址的环境可行性分析是风电场环评的重中之重;风电项目建设对生态环境的影响及风机噪声、光影影响也是风电场环境影响评价的重点,并创造性的提出风机噪声光影联合防护区的概念,以期对风电场环境影响评价提供理论及技术参考依据。     

Real time oil spill forecasting during an experimental oil spill in the arctic ice

The oil spill trajectory and weathering model OILMAP was used to forecast spill trajectories for an experimental oil spill in the Barents Sea marginal ice zone. The model includes capabilities to enter graphically and display environmental data governing oil behavior: ice fields, tidal and background current fields, and wind time series, as well as geographical map information. Forecasts can also be updated from observations such as airplane overflights. The model performed well when wind was ‘off-ice’ and speeds were relatively low (3–7 m s⁻¹), with ice cover between 60 and 90%. Errors in forecasting the trajectory could be directly attributed to errors in the wind forecasts. Appropriate drift parameters for oil and ice were about 25% of the wind speed, with an Ekman veering angle of 35° to the right. Ice sheets were typically 1 m thick. When the wind became ‘on-ice’, wind speeds increased to about 10 m s⁻¹ and trajectory simulations began to diverge from the observations, with observed drift parameters being 1.5% of the wind speed, with a 60° veering angle. Although simple assumptions for the large scale movement of oil in dense ice fields appear appropriate, the importance of good wind forecasts as a basis for reliable trajectory prognoses cannot be overstated.     

协同学视角下的生态工业园结构研究

首先,按照协同学划分子系统的要求,将生态工业园划分成推力子系统、内部子系统及拉力子系统.然后,从各子系统对生态工业园稳定性的作用力角度,进一步研究了各子系统的组成结构.研究表明推力子系统作用力由政府支持、经济支持、资源支持及市场支持构成,内部子系统作用力由技术充足、成员多样、关键种企业、合作距离、信息平台、空间距离、领导因素及企业关联度组成,生态效率为拉力子系统作用力.     

基于循环经济的产品可持续发展研究

高新技术的迅速发展和市场环境的不断变化导致了产品更新换代速度的加快,加剧了资源消耗和环境污染。而基于循环经济的特征,开展产品可持续发展理论研究,可以指导产品自身的可持续协调发展,使产品由生产后的静态使用发展到性能或功能的可持续生长,可持续满足市场的全维需求。初步探讨了产品可持续发展的相关内涵、现状及其哲学意义,并分析了产品可持续发展的主要研究内容,对基于循环经济特点的产品可持续发展模式提出了初步讨论。     

Projection of landfill stabilization period by time series analysis of leachate quality and transformation trends of VOCs

The purpose of this study was to evaluate suitability of using the time series analysis for selected leachate quantity and quality parameters to forecast the duration of post closure period of a closed landfill. Selected leachate quality parameters (i.e., sodium, chloride, iron, bicarbonate, total dissolved solids (TDS), and ammonium as N) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (i.e., vinyl chloride, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, chlorobenzene, benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes, total BTEX) were analyzed by the time series multiplicative decomposition model to estimate the projected levels of the parameters. These parameters were selected based on their detection levels and consistency of detection in leachate samples. In addition, VOCs detected in leachate and their chemical transformations were considered in view of the decomposition stage of the landfill. Projected leachate quality trends were analyzed and compared with the maximum contaminant level (MCL) for the respective parameters. Conditions that lead to specific trends (i.e., increasing, decreasing, or steady) and interactions of leachate quality parameters were evaluated. Decreasing trends were projected for leachate quantity, concentrations of sodium, chloride, TDS, ammonia as N, vinyl chloride, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes, and total BTEX. Increasing trends were projected for concentrations of iron, bicarbonate, and chlorobenzene. Anaerobic conditions in landfill provide favorable conditions for corrosion of iron resulting in higher concentrations over time. Bicarbonate formation as a byproduct of bacterial respiration during waste decomposition and the lime rock cap system of the landfill contribute to the increasing levels of bicarbonate in leachate. Chlorobenzene is produced during anaerobic biodegradation of 1,4-dichlorobenzene, hence, the increasing trend of chlorobenzene may be due to the declining trend of 1,4-dichlorobenzene. The time series multiplicative decomposition model in general provides an adequate forecast for future planning purposes for the parameters monitored in leachate. The model projections for 1,4-dichlorobenzene were relatively less accurate in comparison to the projections for vinyl chloride and chlorobenzene. Based on the trends observed, future monitoring needs for the selected leachate parameters were identified.     

An international study: Effect of farm manure on the release of phosphorus from fly ash

Fly ash is abundantly produced from thermal power plants and is considered a hazardous waste. However, in recent years, fly ash has been widely utilized in the agricultural sector as a soil modifier. It is particularly important for wasteland/mine spoil reclamation due to its ability to provide a source of plant nutrients and improve physicochemical properties of soil. Although fly ash itself contains many plant nutrients, most nutrients, including phosphorus (P), are in a bound form not easily available to plants. This study analyzed the effect of farm manure on the solubility of P from fly ash. Incubation studies were conducted to determine the effect of farm manure on P solubilization to use as a potential option for remediation. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

风机变频改造及自动切换功能的应用

火电厂既是电能生产企业,也是耗能大户,要提高电厂综合效益,必须降低厂用电率和发电煤耗。电厂辅机出力为长期连续运行并常常处于变负荷运行状态,送、引风机作为主要辅机,采用控制风机挡板的开度来调节出力,而作为电动机消耗的能量变化则不大,造成较大能量损耗,直接影响到厂用电率。改为变频调节后,通过改变电机转速控制出力,实现调整需要,达到节电目的。     

风电建设项目节能评估探讨

根据《固定资产投资项目节能评估工作指南》的相关要求,结合已开展的风电场项目节能评估工作现状,阐述了风电项目节能评估工作的几点体会和认识,包括风电项目能源消费量的计算、能效指标体系构成等内容,对同类项目的能评工作具有一定的借鉴意义.     

湖南省不同岩性区风电场工程水土保持措施配置研究

在风电场建设过程中不可避免地会对土壤及植被造成一定的扰动和破坏,人为加剧水土流失.目前,对风电场工程的水土流失特点及防治措施体系已进行了较深入的研究,但在各个地区不同岩性条件下水土流失又有着本地区独有的特征,所采取的措施也不能千篇一律.以湖南省3个不同岩性区的风电场为例,对其水土流失特点进行分析,探讨了在不同岩性条件下风电场工程的水土保持措施配置.