中国消费中长期发展趋势及能源环境效应研究

随着消费在经济发展中的比重逐步增加,其引致的能源消耗和污染物排放越来越不容忽视。本研究基于投入产出模型,分别测算了居民消费引致的直接和间接能源消耗与污染物排放,然后参考发达国家相应发展阶段的居民消费结构,展望未来居民消费发展趋势,进一步测算未来居民消费的能源与环境效应。未来我国消费占GDP的比重将稳步上升,到2050年逐步提高到70%以上;居民消费结构将显著调整,食品占比显著下降,仅为15%,文教娱乐、医疗保健和其他服务占比显著上升;居民消费引致的一次能源需求到2050年将达到30.4亿吨标煤,占全社会能源需求的52.4%;化学需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物排放量将分别达到2497万t、261万t、1722万t、1157万t,占全社会污染物排放产生量的60%以上。研究表明,进一步强化居民消费产品绿色低碳发展、优化居民消费结构,将成为未来推进我国高质量发展和污染防治的重要领域。     

Grey relation analysis of carbon dioxide emissions from industrial production and energy uses in Taiwan

This study aims to identify key factors affecting energy-induced CO₂emission changes from 34 industries in Taiwan, in order to have an integrated understanding of the industrial environmental-economic-energy performance and to provide insights for relevant policy making in Taiwan. Grey relation analysis was used in this paper to analyse how energy-induced CO₂emissions from 34 industries in Taiwan are affected by the factors: production, total energy consumption, coal, oil, gas and electricity uses. The methodology was modified by taking account of the evolutionary direction among relevant factors. Furthermore, tests of sensitivity and stability, which are seldom discussed in most grey relation analyses, were conducted to ensure the reliability of outcomes. We found that values ranging from 0·3 to 0·5 are appropriate, and the analytical results with value of 0·5 offer moderate distinguishing effects and good stability. Results indicate that industrial production has the closest relationship with aggregate CO₂emission changes; electricity consumption the second in importance. It reveals that the economy in Taiwan relied heavily on CO₂intensive industries, and that electricity consumption had become more important for economic growth. The relational order of fuels is electricity, coal, oil then gas, accordant with their CO₂emission coefficients in Taiwan. The positive relational grade of aggregate production implies that the aggregate industrial CO₂intensity tended to decline. The total energy consumption had a smaller and negative relational grade with CO₂emissions, and implies an improvement on aggregate energy intensity, while the CO₂emission coefficient increased. For industries with significant influence on CO₂emissions, the total energy consumption had the largest relational grades. It is important to reduce the energy intensity of these industries. Nevertheless, it is also critical to decouple energy consumption and production to reduce the impacts of CO₂mitigation on economic growth.     

中国城镇居民食物消费碳排放的时空演变特征分析

本文运用碳折算系数法和投入产出模型测算了1990—2018年中国30个省(区、市)城镇居民食物消费的人均直接碳排放、人均家庭间接碳排放和人均产业间接碳排放,并运用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)对总碳排放的空间特征进行分析。研究表明:1990—2018年中国30个省(区、市)人均间接碳排放在研究期内呈增长趋势,人均产业碳排放增长幅度最大且始终处于主导地位,大部分地区的人均直接碳排放增长较为缓慢;人均碳排放和总碳排放都呈显著增长趋势,人均碳排放的增长幅度宁夏>新疆>上海>浙江>青海>北京,甘肃最小,总碳排放增长幅度广东>浙江>山东>江苏>河北>上海,吉林最低;总碳排放在大部分年份呈正的空间相关性,整体上呈"M"形波动;局部空间自相关分析结果表明,食物消费总碳排放存在高高型和低高型两种,且2000年及以后高高型稳定在上海、江苏、浙江地区。最后,本文依据实证结果对如何降低城镇居民食物消费碳排放提出了相应的政策建议。     

A new and integrated hydro-economic accounting and analytical framework for water resources: a case study for North China

Water is a critical issue in China for a variety of reasons. China is poor of water resources with 2300m(3) of per capita availability, which is less than 13 of the world average. This is exacerbated by regional differences; e.g. North China's water availability is only about 271m(3) of per capita value, which is only 125 of the world's average. Furthermore, pollution contributes to water scarcity and is a major source for diseases, particularly for the poor. The Ministry of Hydrology [1997. China's Regional Water Bullets. Water Resource and Hydro-power Publishing House, Beijing, China] reports that about 65-80% of rivers in North China no longer support any economic activities. Previous studies have emphasized the amount of water withdrawn but rarely take water quality into consideration. The quality of the return flows usually changes; the water quality being lower than the water flows that entered the production process initially. It is especially important to measure the impacts of wastewater to the hydro-ecosystem. Thus, water consumption should not only account for the amount of water inputs but also the amount of water contaminated in the hydro-ecosystem by the discharged wastewater. In this paper we present a new accounting and analytical approach based on economic input-output modelling combined with a mass balanced hydrological model that links interactions in the economic system with interactions in the hydrological system. We thus follow the tradition of integrated economic-ecologic input-output modelling. Our hydro-economic accounting framework and analysis tool allows tracking water consumption on the input side, water pollution leaving the economic system and water flows passing through the hydrological system thus enabling us to deal with water resources of different qualities. Following this method, the results illustrate that North China requires 96% of its annual available water, including both water inputs for the economy and contaminated water that is ineligible for any uses.     

中国农村居民食品消费碳排放的时空格局及其影响因素

在全球气候变化背景下,研究居民食品消费碳排放具有重要的意义。本文基于全国和地区农村居民家庭食品消费量调查数据及其人均食品消费碳排放的测算,运用ArcGIS空间统计分析、地理探测器因子探测等方法,分析2000—2019年中国农村居民家庭食品人均碳排放的时空格局及其驱动因素。结果表明：①碳排放结构中升降因素叠加,人均碳排放量增速不明显。②人均碳排放量存在空间集聚效应,但集聚程度呈下降趋势。③人均碳排放量、直接与间接排放量空间分异的影响因素不同。其中,人均碳排放量主要受到猪牛羊肉消费量、食品消费支出的影响。建议从优化农村居民的饮食结构,适度减少猪牛羊肉的消费量、增加综合碳折算系数较低的禽肉、蛋类、牛奶和鱼类等动物性食品的消费量,以及加强人均碳排放量较高地区饮食结构调整和优化的指导等方面,减少农村居民食品消费的人均碳排放量。