基于高光谱数据藻类水华重要参数——叶绿素a的定量反演模型研究

水库富营养化导致的水华问题严重影响了饮用水的利用和保护,而水体叶绿素a在营养化水体中比例稳定,可以在很大程度上反映水体的营养状况,是水华监测的重要参数。目前,大多数研究集中在较为典型的富营养化水体,对中/贫营养化水体的研究较少。以莆田东圳水库为研究区,随机选取112组叶绿素a浓度数据和高光谱数据中的72组数据进行模型构建,剩余40组数据用于模型验证。在对叶绿素a浓度和光谱反射率曲线进行相关分析的基础上,通过对水体光学特性的分析和统计分析,筛选出单波段、波段比值、三波段、四波段、荧光峰高度、荧光峰位置、峰谷距离等特征参数建立反演模型。通过模型精度验证的对比分析,确定了最优叶绿素a浓度的反模型。结果表明,经过900 nm处归零化预处理的单波段模型和四波段模型对东圳水库水体叶绿素a浓度的反演效果最佳,其决定系数R²均为0.91,平均绝对误差MAE分别为1.82μg/L和2.81μg/L,MAPE分别为22.53%和21.53%。对于叶绿素a浓度较低、跨度较小的库区水域,波段算法类模型建模精度优于荧光算法类模型。该研究结果可以为后续东圳水库的常规水质监测和水华预警提供一定...     

辽东湾双台子河口湿地翅碱蓬（Suaeda salsa）生物量遥感反演研究

通过现场采集辽东湾双台子河口翅碱蓬（Suaeda salsa）光谱数据,收集标准样方（1 m×1 m）的翅碱蓬生物量（Biomass）,建立相关植被指数与翅碱蓬生物量的遥感反演回归算法,发现辽宁双台子河口湿地翅碱蓬生物量与植被指数PVI、SAVI和MSAVI的相关系数R2较高,直线回归方程相关系数分别达到0.626、0.698和0.679。同时,利用得到的估算模型,结合1990—2005年的双台子河口的TM影像数据,反演该区域翅碱蓬分布面积和生物量。结果发现：辽东湾双台子河口湿地翅碱蓬面积变化呈先降后升的趋势。通过植被指数（NDVI、RVI、PVI和MSAVI）和生物量的算法反演,发现翅碱蓬生物量曲线与分布面积曲线的变化趋势一致。     

赤潮多发区深圳湾叶绿素a的时空分布及其影响因素

于2008年2月至2008年11月分四个季度调查了赤潮多发区深圳湾叶绿素a的时空分布,并分析了叶绿素a与主要环境因子之间的关系.结果表明,深圳湾叶绿素a质量浓度范围为3.07～309.94 mg·m~(-3),年平均值为42.29 mg·m~(-3).四季叶绿素a平均质量浓度由高到低排列分别为:春季(108.33 mg·m~(-3))>夏季(35.2 mg·m~(-3))>秋季(16.68 mg·m~(-3))>冬季(8.96 mg·m~(-3)).叶绿素a的质量浓度在冬季和春季呈现由湾内向湾外递减的分布特征,而夏季和秋季呈现由西岸向东岸递减的分布特征,整体则呈现由湾内向湾外递减的分布特征.相关分析显示深圳湾叶绿素a与水温、COD、TOC、PO_4~(3-)-P和浮游植物密度因子显著正相关,与DIN因子极显著正相关,说明叶绿素a与水温、DIN、PO_4~(3-)-P、COD、TOC和浮游植物密度之间有着比其它因子更为密切的关系.以叶绿素a作为富营养化评价标准,发现深圳湾海域富营养化严重,存在随时爆发赤潮的潜在风险.     

桑沟湾海域叶绿素a的时空分布特征及其影响因素研究

2009年4月-2010年2月对山东荣成典型养殖海湾—桑沟湾海域水体中的叶绿素a（Chl-a）进行了6个航次的监测,分析该海区表底层海水中Chl-a的质量现状,探讨Chl-a在桑沟湾海区的时空分布特征,以及与水温和营养盐等主要环境因子的相关性。结果表明,桑沟湾海域表层海水Chl-a质量浓度范围为0.36～9.77μg L-1,平均值为2.17μg L-1;底层海水Chl-a质量浓度范围为0.40～7.46μg L-1,平均值为2.14μg L-1。Chl-a质量浓度的季节性变化呈现一定的模式,夏季〉秋季〉春季〉冬季。Chl-a的质量浓度在春季和冬季呈现由湾内向湾外递减的分布特征,而夏季和秋季则没有明显的分布规律。垂直分布上,夏季表层Chl-a质量浓度高于底层,冬季则是底层高于表层,春秋2季表底层垂直分布比较均匀。相关分析显示桑沟湾Chl-a与水温呈较显著正相关,但与营养盐溶解无机氮（DIN）不具显著意义的相关关系。总体看来,桑沟湾海域Chl-a的时空分布受养殖环境状况、水文环境及陆地径流和外源输入的共同影响,贝藻养殖活动及营养盐的陆源输入是影响Chl-a分布格局的重要因素。     

浮游植物叶绿素a浓度测定方法的比较研究

叶绿素a作为浮游植物生物量的表征,其在水体中的浓度常被用作评价水环境富营养程度的指标,但其测定方法多样,尚未形成统一的标准方法.回顾了水体中浮游植物叶绿素a测定方法的发展历程,对细胞破碎方法和提取液种类等方面的研究做了比较,结合不同测定方法的优缺点提出了目前最合适使用的方法——热乙醇法.该方法操作简便,提取效率高,稳定可靠,且对操作者的健康无危害.介绍了荧光法、高效液相色谱法和分光光度法3种常用测定方法的简要步骤、适用性和优缺点.经过对多种方法的比较,认为采用热乙醇法提取和分光光度法测定是一种值得推广应用的测定方法,以期为国内制定叶绿素a测定的标准方法提供依据.     

海水混合和层化对叶绿素a垂直分布的影响

根据长江口海区、近岸浅水区、黄海冷水团海区和水深超过200m的陆架区等四个区域的定点调查获得的数据，分析了温度、盐度与叶绿素a垂直分布的相互关系。结果表明，长江口海区，陆源径流与海水混合不充分，表层营养盐含量较高，表层叶绿素a含量高于中下水层。近岸浅水区的苏北近岸海水垂向没有温跃层和盐跃层，叶绿素a的垂向分布也均匀，东海西部沿岸出现逆温跃层和逆盐跃层，海水垂直混合不充分，叶绿素a含量(6．72mg／m^3)在10m深水域最高。黄海冷水团海区海水的垂直混合不充分，叶绿素a的垂直变化显著，高值区出现在温跃层下方(4．37mg／m^3)。水深超过200m的陆架区，温度的阶梯状结构、营养盐跃层、光照等因素共同导致整个水层叶绿素a含量普遍较低。同时，结合历史资料分析认为，海水的混合、温度和盐度的层化将影响营养盐的浓度和分布，从而影响海水中叶绿素a的垂直分布。     

基于统计方法的辽东湾沉积物中多环芳烃来源特征分析

为研究辽东湾表层沉积物中多环芳烃(PAHs)的来源特征,2014年5月采集了20个辽东湾海域表层沉积物样品,并利用气相色谱质谱联用仪对优先控制的16种PAHs进行测定,采用聚类分析、主成分分析-多元线性回归分析、异构体比值3种统计方法对辽东湾表层沉积物中PAHs来源特征进行了研究。结果表明,辽东湾表层沉积物中PAHs含量范围88.5~199.3 ng·g-1,平均值为(126.3±35.3)ng·g-1,其中,萘、菲和荧蒽是PAHs优势组分。通过统计分析结果表明,辽东湾北部表层沉积物中PAHs含量低于西南部,沉积物中PAHs的来源包括石油燃烧来源、煤炭、木材等生物质燃烧来源和石油来源,其中燃烧来源是主要来源,煤炭、木材等生物质燃烧来源占49.9%,石油燃烧来源和石油来源占50.1%。     

华南沿海地区小型水库叶绿素a浓度的影响因子分析

在华南沿海地区,小型水库是重要的供水水源.于2006年4月、8月、12月3次对珠海市12座小型水库的叶绿素a(Chl.a)、浮游植物、总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、透明度(SD)等进行采样测定,分析了叶绿素a浓度的分布、动态及其与浮游植物和环境因子的关系.12座水库叶绿素a浓度分布范围为1.3～33.2 μg/L,抽水水库的叶绿素a浓度在8月份最低,而非抽水水库的叶绿素a浓度在8月份最高.12座水库TN浓度分布范围为0.18～1.76 mg/L,TP浓度分布范同为0.01～0.79 mg/L.总磷与叶绿素a浓度显著相关,In(Chl.a)=0.55961n(TP)+4.5581(R2=0.2337,P<0.01).总氮与叶绿素a浓度呈正相关关系,In(Chl.a)=0.60771n(TN)+2.6199(R2=0.2004,P<0.01).浮游植物生物量为0.135～8.759 mg/L.非抽水水库主要以绿藻、硅藻、甲藻为优势类群,但木头冲水库12月份以蓝藻为优势种类.抽水水库的浮游植物优势种变化较大,叶绿素a浓度与浮游植物生物量呈显著正相关,In(Chl.a)=0.27921n(biomass)+2.1083(R2=0.245,P<0.01).叶绿素a浓度与环境因子的相关性具有明显的季节变化,这主要是由营养盐负荷和水文条件的季节变化所决定.抽水与非抽水水库的叶绿素a浓度与环境因子的相关性具有明显的差别,这主要是由于涮水改变了水体的营养盐负荷和水文节律.叶绿素a浓度与浮游植物生物量具有正相关关系,这种相关性的季节变化随浮游植物组成的变化(特别是优势种类的变化)而变化.图7表1参29     

松花江哈尔滨江段高锰酸盐指数的遥感反演

以松花江哈尔滨江段高锰酸钾指数为研究对象,于2012年7月14～15日,测定了11个断面31个采样点的高锰酸钾指数数据,同步获取了采样点水质高光谱反射率数据,使用相关性统计分析和多元非线性回归分析方法,用其中21个样点数据构建反演模型,得到模型决定系数(R2)为0.890,用10个样点数据进行验证,得到预测值的均方根误差(RMSE)为0.439 mg·L-1,平均绝对偏差(MAD)为0.365 mg·L-1,平均绝对偏差率(MADR)为8.43%.     

乌梁素海叶绿素a与理化因子的统计分析

利用2008年6月—10月乌梁素海水体叶绿素a浓度与环境理化因子的测定结果,分析了叶绿素a的时空分布特征.运用分层聚类分析法将乌梁素海现有的20个测点分成四类,找出各类测点及总测点中与叶绿素a显著相关的理化因子,建立了多元逐步回归方程.2008年乌梁素海各测点叶绿素a的平均值为6.31 mg.m-3,变幅1.54—26.87 mg.m-3;夏季最高,秋季居中,春季最低,整个区域呈现较明显的东北高西南低的分布趋势.应用SPSS统计分析软件进行相关分析的结果表明叶绿素a与BOD5、悬浮物、浊度、总磷都呈极显著相关,与透明度呈极显著负相关,与pH值和溶氧呈显著负相关.综合逐步回归方程表明,影响乌梁素海叶绿素a的理化因子因不同类型的测点各有所不同,但主要的影响因子有浊度、悬浮物、总磷、总氮、硝酸盐氮和亚硝酸盐氮.     

Inertial oscillations and particle flux interactions in a marine protected area in Gulf of Naples

The area between the island of Capri and Punta Campanella was investigated from June to November 2003. Punta Campanella separates the Gulf of Naples from the Gulf of Salerno and has been declared a marine protected area in 1997. The study area has a particular interesting topography, due to the presence of a sill situated at a depth of 80 m. Samples were collected by instruments carried on a mooring array (sediment trap, current meters, and temperature sensors) and by CTD cast (along transects perpendicular to the coast). We observed most important fluctuations in the temperature spectra (corresponding to the inertial oscillations period), in August. The total mass flux was 585.67 mg m^-2 d^-1 in the summer, while in early autumn the flux exhibited values one order of magnitude higher than in summer (1539.97 mg m^-2 d^-1). The main focus of this study was to understand the influence of the internal waves on the particle flux. During the autumn, in the particle flux collected, there is a strong resuspension component, and the observation that the enhanced inertial oscillations and increased sedimentation occur at the same time allows us to presume that the inertial oscillations could be one of the reasons for the resuspension process during the sampling period.     

基于MODIS GPP/NPP数据的三江源地区草地生态系统碳储量及碳汇量时空变化研究

陆地生态系统碳循环研究是全球变化与地球科学研究领域的前沿与热点问题,准确地评估陆地生态系统碳储量和碳汇量是估算未来大气 CO2浓度,预测气候变化及其对陆地生态系统影响的关键。已有相关研究多集中于对区域生态系统碳储量和碳汇量的量的估算,而缺乏针对时间尺度上的变化过程的分析,以及对变化特征空间差异性的分析。本研究基于MODIS NPP数据,结合土地利用数据及土壤有机碳密度分布数据,对三江源地区2000─2010年草地生态系统碳储量时空变化特征进行了分析,同时,基于MODIS GPP数据及China FLUX和America FLUX数据,建立草地生态系统呼吸估算模型,对其碳汇量的时空变化特征进行了分析,以期明确该地区的碳储存能力及其变化过程,为该区域草地生态系统保护和管理提供科学依据。研究结果表明：（1）三江源地区草地生态系统总碳储量为53.38×108 t,平均碳密度为14.94 kg·m-2（以C计）。土壤和植被碳储量分别为53.07×108 t和0.31×108 t,平均碳密度分别为14.85 kg·m-2和86.77 g·m-2。（2）近10多年来,三江源地区草地生态系统多年平均碳汇量为0.4×108 t,单位面积平均碳汇量为86.80 g·m-2·a-1（以C计）,表明该地区草地生态体统是一个碳汇。（3）2000年以来,三江源地区草地生态系统总碳储量及总碳汇量均呈波动增加趋势,碳汇功能有所增强。（4）三江源地区草地生态系统碳储量及碳汇量的空间分布格局及其变化趋势的空间分布均呈现明显的空间差异性。（5）MODIS GPP/NPP数据能够支撑较大尺度草地生态系统碳储量及碳汇量格局与变化趋势分析,较传统方法更为便捷高效。     

Phosphate enrichment in the northern Gulf of Aqaba: Regulation by carbonate sediments and impact on nitrogen elevation

The effect of carbonate sediment in regulating phosphate concentrations in sea water was investigated by laboratory incubation experiments using different sediment types. Incubation experiments were made with two types of sediments: uncontaminated sediment from a marine reserve and contaminated sediment with deposited phosphate powders. Fluxes of inorganic nitrogen and phosphate were estimated from linear regressions of solute concentrations over incubation periods. Ammonium and phosphate fluxes were about twofold higher in the uncontaminated sediment that had significantly lower organic carbon and total phosphate concentrations than in the phosphate-contaminated sediment. To test the effect of dissolved phosphate on increasing nitrogen fixation, additional incubation experiments were carried out using treated carbonate and silicate sediments with added dissolved phosphate (20 μM). Incubations were made under sterile conditions with HgCl₂ added to distinguish between biologically enhanced processes and pure physicochemical processes. The adsorption rate of phosphate onto carbonate sediment was about twice that onto silicate sediments. No nitrogen elevation either as ammonium or as nitrate was observed in the soluble phosphate enrichment incubations. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the importance of the regulation of soluble phosphate concentrations in carbonate sediment environments where the carbonate sediment acts as a buffering system keeping soluble phosphate concentrations at certain steady-state levels. The study also demonstrates the lack of evidence on enhancement of nitrogen concentrations due to the increase phosphate concentrations.     

基于MODIS数据的河南省冬小麦产量遥感估算模型

小麦是世界上最重要的粮食作物,小麦生产对中国的粮食保障起着十分重要的作用,及时、准确、大范围对小麦产量进行监测预报,对于农学经济发展和粮食政策制定具有极为重要的现实意义。对作物产量进行遥感监测的原理是建立在其遥感特征基础之上的,通过建立作物长势指标与遥感信息的定量关系,可实现对作物产量的监测预报。文章基于2009年MODIS遥感数据和气象数据,利用Arcgis和ENVI提取纯小麦像元,并提取纯小麦像元对应的NDVI、NPP和LAI,获取分县NDVI、NPP和LAI均值,利用统计软件对产量数据和分县遥感参数均值进行数据整理和分析,建立了河南省冬小麦产量估算模型。以往研究多采用遥感图像上某像元和地面调查点进行研究,具有很大的不确定性,文章以县为单位,对冬小麦平均单产和县域内冬小麦种植像元遥感参数的均值进行相关研究,提高了模型模拟精度。同时文章选用多种遥感参数和多项气象因子建立估产模型,避免了针对一个参数进行估产的局限性。在最佳时相的选择上,根据冯美辰（2010）以往的研究结果,从4月以后,5月8日和4月20Et植被指数和产量相关性最大,4月份之前冬小麦处于返青到拔节期,对产量来说还有很多不确定闪素,因此文章选用5月8El和4月20日进行冬小麦估产研究。结果表明,5月8日的估产模型优于4月20日,加入气象冈子的遥感气象估产模型优于只采用遥感参数进行估产的遥感模型。利用2010年产量数据对模型精度进行检验,遥感气象模型预测精度在70．2％N99．7％之间,平均精度为90．7％;遥感模型预测精度在68．1％到95．5％之间,平均精度为83．9％。表明遥感气象模型模拟精度更高,其精度可以满足大面积估产要求,可以对产量预报提供科学参考。     

Managing a protected marine area for the conservation of critically endangered vaquita (Phocoena sinus Norris, 1958) in the Upper Gulf of California

We analysed fisheries trends in the northern region of the Gulf of California, within the Biosphere Reserve of the Upper Gulf of California and Colorado Delta River and the Vaquita Refuge Area, and suggest measures to protect the vaquita, Phocoena sinus. We compiled and analysed catch reports of artisanal fishermen in the three fishing communities of the Upper Gulf of California (San Felipe in the State of Baja California, and Golfo de Santa Clara and Puerto Peñasco in the State of Sonora) from 1995 to 2007. This information was categorised with respect to geographic information systems, and all fishing sites within two marine protected areas in the region were identified. In addition, from a survey based on direct interviews with artisanal fishermen in each of the three ports, we identified that 23% of fishermen will continue fishing despite on-going fishing buy-out programmes in the region. We suggest several specific courses of action to decrease the fishing impact on this critically endangered cetacean. However, given the critical situation of this critically endangered species, it is very uncertain whether enforcing a no-take zone within the biosphere reserve and the Vaquita Refuge Area, or even a wider fishing moratorium, will be enough to save this endangered species from extinction.     

Identifying the possibilities and pitfalls of conducting IUCN Red List assessments from remotely sensed habitat information based on insights from poorly known Cuban mammals

The International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Threatened Species (RLS) is the key global tool for objective, repeatable assessment of species’ extinction risk status, and plays an essential role in tracking biodiversity loss and guiding conservation action. Satellite remote sensing (SRS) data sets on global ecosystem distributions and functioning show exciting potential for informing range-based RLS assessment, but their incorporation has been restricted by low temporal resolution and coverage of data sets, lack of incorporation of degradation-driven habitat loss, and noninclusion of assumptions related to identification of changing habitat distributions for taxa with varying habitat dependency and ecologies. For poorly known mangrove-associated Cuban hutias (Mesocapromys spp.), we tested the impact of possible assumptions regarding these issues on range-based RLS assessment outcomes. Specifically, we used annual (1985–2018) Landsat data and land-cover classification and habitat degradation analyses across different internal time series slices to simulate range-based RLS assessments for our case study taxa to explore potential assessment uncertainty arising from temporal SRS data set coverage, incorporating proxies of (change in) habitat quality, and assumptions on spatial scaling of habitat extent for RLS parameter generation. We found extensive variation in simulated species-specific range-based RLS assessments, and this variation was mostly associated with the time series over which parameters were estimated. However, results of some species-specific assessments differed by up to 3 categories (near threatened to critically endangered) within the same time series, due to the effects of incorporating habitat quality and the spatial scaling used in RLS parameter estimation. Our results showed that a one-size-fits-all approach to incorporating SRS information in RLS assessment is inappropriate, and we urge caution in conducting range-based assessments with SRS for species for which habitat dependence on specific ecosystem types is incompletely understood. We propose novel revisions to parameter spatial scaling guidelines to improve integration of existing time series data on ecosystem change into the RLS assessment process.     

The influence of hydrodynamic processes on zooplankton transport and distributions in the North Western Mediterranean: Estimates from a Lagrangian model

A Lagrangian module has been developed and coupled with the 3D circulation model Symphonie to study the influence of hydrodynamic processes on zooplankton transport and distributions in the North Western Mediterranean (NWM). Individuals are released every 3 days from March to August 2001 in two initial areas: around the DYFAMED sampling station in the central Ligurian Sea and in the Rhône river plume. Then the individuals are tracked for 40 days either as passive particles or with a simple diel vertical migration (DVM) pattern. The simulations suggest strong seasonal patterns in the distributions of the individuals released around the DYFAMED sampling station. Individuals spread all over the NWM basin after 40 days but different patterns occur depending on the season, the initial depths of release and the capacity of DVM. Offshore-shelf transport only occurs in April and May with particles ending up in the Gulf of Lions (GoL) in low concentrations. In other months, the Northern Current (NC) can be considered as a barrier for particles entering the GoL from the offshore sea. A quarter to a half of passive individuals released in the Rhône river plume remain in the GoL. The rest is transported by the NC towards the Catalan Sea. Applying a simple DVM scheme does not increase the retention of particles on the shelf.     

A general process-based mass-balance model for phosphorus/eutrophication as a tool to estimate historical reference values for key bioindicators,as exemplified using data for the Gulf of Riga

This work describes how a general, process-based mass-balance model (CoastMab) for phosphorus for coastal areas may be used as a tool to estimate realistic values of “natural” or preindustrial reference levels of key bioindicators in coastal science, including the Secchi depth, a standard measure of water clarity, the chlorophyll-a concentration, an operational measure of phytoplankton biomass and the concentration of cyanobacteria, a measure of the concentration of harmful algae. The CoastMab-model is an ecosystem model giving monthly predictions to achieve seasonal variations of basin-wide properties. The selected case-study area, the Gulf of Riga, is sensitive to nutrient loading because of its shallowness and low openness towards the Baltic Proper. The morphometry of any coastal area, as given by the size and form parameters, influences all internal processes, such as sedimentation, resuspension, diffusion in water and from sediments to water, biouptake and retention in biota, stratification, mixing and outflow. There has been no mass-balance modeling for nitrogen (N) in this work because empirical data (from the HELCOM database) clearly indicate that the monthly primary production in the Gulf of Riga is regulated by phosphorus (P) – the mean monthly total-N to total-P ratios are well over 7.2 (the Redfield-ratio) and generally higher than 15 for the data used in this study (from 1992 to 2005). At present anthropogenic loads, the average modeled monthly values for Secchi depth, chlorophyll (Chl), cyanobacteria (CB) and total-P (TP) are 3.2 m, 3.8 μg/l, 78 μg/l and 31.3 μg/l, respectively. If 50% of all anthropogenic sources to the Gulf of Riga via rivers, point sources and diffuse sources were to be removed, these values would be 3.6 m, 3.4 μg Chl/l, 63 μg CB/l and 29.1 μg TP/l. If 60% of the anthropogenic phosphorus fluxes to the Baltic Proper were to be omitted and as well as 75% of all direct anthropogenic sources to the Gulf of Riga, the values would be 4.6 m, 2.7 μg Chl/l, 45 μg CB/l and 25.4 μg TP/l. These values represent the “natural” reference levels and it is not realistic to expect that remedial measures would improve the conditions more than that. Using the CoastWeb-model, similar calculations can be made for any given coastal area and the data necessary for such calculations are discussed in this work.     

基于ARIMA模型的辽河流域生态足迹动态模拟与预测

将能值与生态足迹理论相结合,引入能量折算系数,通过能值密度构建能值-生态足迹模型,并应用此模型对辽河流域2001—2010年生态承载力和生态足迹进行计算。生态承载力计算主要是自然生态承载力和本地产品产出承载力,其中自然生态承载力主要考虑可更新资源的承载力,本地产品产出承载力主要包括生物资源产出承载力和工业产品产出承载力。生态足迹的计算主要包括消费足迹和污染足迹,消费足迹主要测算生物资源消费、能源消费和水资源消费足迹。污染足迹主要测算废气和生活废水、工业废水对自然生态系统带来的负荷。测算结果表明:2001—2010年辽河流域人均生态承载力和人均生态足迹均有所增加,但是生态足迹的增长速度远远大于生态承载力,致使流域内自2001与2009年生态略有盈余外,其余年份均出现生态赤字,处于不可持续发展状态。以能值-生态足迹模型测算结果为基础,基于EViews采用自回归综合移动平均模型(ARIMA),对流域内10年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行动态模拟。首先通过ADF与PP单位根检验时间序列的平稳性;其次分析序列的自相关函数图和偏自相关函数,初步确定AR和MA的阶次;再根据R2、AIC及SC准则,进行模型参数估计并诊断分析;最后确定最佳模拟模型。以ARIMA模型预测2011—2015年辽河流域生态足迹和生态承载力的演变趋势。预测结果表明,人均生态足迹在未来5年内会继续呈直线式增长,到2015年达到7.387 8 hm2,是2001年的2.16倍;而人均生态承载力在2011年之后开始下降,生态赤字继续扩大,到2015年增长到-4.167 67,约为2005年的10倍,流域内不可持续发展形势会更加恶化。最后提出辽河流域生态安全建设的对策。能值-生态足迹模型测算结果与实地调研基本相符,较真实反映了辽河流域可持续发展状况。基于ARIMA模型模拟预测结果可为未来流域开发和建设提供参考依据。