Public perceptions on the acceptance of geological storage of carbon dioxide and information influencing the acceptance

Public acceptance will be important for the implementation of the geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂). The purpose of this study is to evaluate how the general public perceives this storage and the factors crucial for its acceptance. Further, this study attempts to analyze and evaluate what kind of information would influence the public acceptance and how. In order to evaluate them, questionnaire surveys concerning the acceptance of CO₂ geological storage were conducted among Japanese university students. The questionnaire was designed under the assumption that there were five important factors with regard to the acceptance: risk perception, benefit perception, trust, and two perceptions relating to human interference with the environment (one each for CO₂ geological storage and global warming). The questionnaire also investigated the effects of two kinds of information supplied: on natural analogues and on field demonstrations of CO₂ storage. The responses were analyzed through confirmatory factor analysis, and the dynamic changes in the perceptions resulting from the supplied information were analyzed. The analysis results include the following: the five factors explained the acceptance very well (>83%), the benefit perception was primarily important for determining public acceptance, and information on the natural analogues decreased the risk perception greatly.     

Modeling the impacts of climate policy on the deployment of carbon dioxide capture and geologic storage across electric power regions in the United States

This paper summarizes the results of a first-of-its-kind holistic, integrated economic analysis of the potential role of carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture and storage (CCS) technologies across the regional segments of the United States (U.S.) electric power sector, over the time frame 2005–2045, in response to two hypothetical emissions control policies analyzed against two potential energy supply futures that include updated and substantially higher projected prices for natural gas. This paper's detailed analysis is made possible by combining two specialized models developed at Battelle: the Battelle CO₂-GIS to determine the regional capacity and cost of CO₂ transport and geologic storage; and the Battelle Carbon Management Electricity Model, an electric system optimal capacity expansion and dispatch model, to examine the investment and operation of electric power technologies with CCS against the background of other options. A key feature of this paper's analysis is an attempt to explicitly model the inherent heterogeneities that exist in both the nation's current and future electricity generation infrastructure and in its candidate deep geologic CO₂ storage formations. Overall, between 180 and 580 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired integrated gasification combined cycle with CCS (IGCC + CCS) capacity is built by 2045 in these four scenarios, requiring between 12 and 41 gigatonnes of CO₂ (GtCO₂) storage in regional deep geologic reservoirs across the U.S. Nearly all of this CO₂ is from new IGCC + CCS systems, which start to deploy after 2025. Relatively little IGCC + CCS capacity is built before that time, primarily under unique niche opportunities. For the most part, CO₂ emissions prices will likely need to be sustained at over $20/tonne CO₂ before CCS begins to deploy on a large scale within the electric power sector. Within these broad national trends, a highly nuanced picture of CCS deployment across the U.S. emerges. Across the four scenarios studied here, power plant builders and operators within some North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) regions do not employ any CCS while other regions build more than 100 GW of CCS-enabled generation capacity. One region sees as much as 50% of its geologic CO₂ storage reservoirs’ total theoretical capacity consumed by 2045, while most of the regions still have more than 90% of their potential storage capacity available to meet storage needs in the second half of the century and beyond. A detailed presentation of the results for power plant builds and operation in two key regions: ECAR in the Midwest and ERCOT in Texas, provides further insight into the diverse set of economic decisions that generate the national and aggregate regional results.     

Measurements of non-wetting phase trapping applied to carbon dioxide storage

We measure the trapped non-wetting phase saturation as a function of the initial saturation in sand packs. The application of the work is for CO₂ storage in aquifers where capillary trapping is a rapid and effective mechanism to render injected CO₂ immobile. The CO₂ is injected into the formation followed by chase brine injection, or natural groundwater flow, which displaces and traps CO₂ on the pore scale as a residual immobile phase. Current models to predict the amount of trapping are based on experiments in consolidated media, while CO₂ may be stored in relatively shallow, poorly consolidated systems. We use analogue fluids at ambient conditions. The trapped saturation initially rises linearly with initial saturation to a value of approximately 0.13 for oil/water systems and 0.14 for gas/water systems. There then follows a region where the residual saturation is constant with further increases in initial saturation. This behaviour is not predicted by the traditional literature trapping models, but is physically consistent with unconsolidated media where most of the larger pores can easily be invaded at relatively low saturation and there is, overall, relatively little trapping. A good match to our experimental data was achieved with the trapping model proposed by Aissaoui.     

Evaluation of carbon dioxide storage potential for the Bohai Basin,north-east China

The storage potential of selected sites within the Bohai Basin was assessed for the COACH project. The Gangdong oilfield is considered to have a small potential storage capacity (23 Mt) and to be possibly suitable for an enhanced oil recovery or small-scale storage pilot rather than large-scale storage. The Shengli oilfield province is considered to have a great potential storage capacity (472 Mt in eight selected fields), however, these fields, like those of the Gangdong oilfield province, are compartmentalised by faulting and stratigraphy and likely to be quite challenging for injection. Unmineable coal seams in the Kailuan mining area were also considered for storage, the estimated capacity is 504 Gt adsorbed onto the coal and 38,100 Mt void storage capacity. However, the coals have low porosity and permeability, so they would be expected to have poor injectivity. This is also an active mining area and so any storage site would have to be chosen carefully to avoid affecting future energy resources. The Huimin sub-basin within the Jiyang Depression was identified for consideration as an aquifer storage site; the Guantao Formation has good porosity and permeability in this region, and the regional-level storage capacity of these areas was estimated to be 0.7 Gt. The aquifers in the Huimin sub-basin appear promising for storage, however, less data are available than for the oilfields and the sealing formations are not directly proven to trap buoyant fluids, though in adjacent oilfield in the Shengli oilfield province, the Minghuazhen Formation forms a regional seal for the Guantao Formation.     

Non-isothermal flow of carbon dioxide in injection wells during geological storage

During sequestration, carbon dioxide within injection wells is likely to be in a dense state and therefore its weight within the wellbore will play an important role in determining the bottomhole pressure and thus the injection rate. However, the density could vary significantly along the well in response to the variation in pressure and temperature. A numerical procedure is formulated in this paper to evaluate the flow of carbon dioxide and its mixtures in non-isothermal wells. This procedure solves the coupled heat, mass and momentum equations with the various fluid and thermodynamic properties, including the saturation pressure, of the gas mixture calculated using a real gas equation of state. This treatment is particularly useful when dealing with gas mixtures where experimental data on mixture properties are not available and these must be predicted. To test the developed procedure two wellbore flow problems from the literature, involving geothermal gradients and wellbore phase transitions are considered; production of 97% carbon dioxide and injection of superheated steam. While these are not typical carbon dioxide injection problems they provide field observations of wellbore flow processes which encompass the mechanisms of interest for carbon dioxide injection, such as phase transition, temperature and density variations with depth. These two examples show that the developed procedure can offer accurate predictions. In a third application the role of wellbore hydraulics during a hypothetical carbon dioxide injection application is considered. The results obtained illustrate the potential complexity of carbon dioxide wellbore hydraulics for sequestration applications and the significant role it can play in determining the well bottomhole pressure and thus injection rate.     

Intermediate storage of carbon dioxide in geological formations: A technical perspective

Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) through CO₂ flooding has been practiced on a commercial basis for the last 35 years and continues today at several sites, currently injecting in total over 30 million tons of CO₂ annually. This practice is currently exclusively for economic gain, but can potentially contribute to the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases provided it is implemented on a large scale. Optimal operations in distributing CO₂ to CO₂-EOR or enhanced gas recovery (EGR) projects (referred to here collectively as CO₂-EHR) on a large scale and long time span imply that intermediate storage of CO₂ in geological formations may be a key component. Intermediate storage is defined as the storage of CO₂ in geological media for a limited time span such that the CO₂ can be sufficiently reproduced for later use in CO₂-EHR. This paper investigates the technical aspects, key individual parameters and possibilities of intermediate storage of CO₂ in geological formations aiming at large scale implementation of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) for deep emission reduction. The main parameters are thus the depth of injection and density, CO₂ flow and transport processes, storage mechanisms, reservoir heterogeneity, the presence of impurities, the type of the reservoirs and the duration of intermediate storage. Structural traps with no flow of formation water combined with proper injection planning such as gas-phase injection favour intermediate storage in deep saline aquifers. In depleted oil and gas fields, high permeability, homogeneous reservoirs with structural traps (e.g. anticlinal structures) are good candidates for intermediate CO₂ storage. Intuitively, depleted natural gas reservoirs can be potential candidates for intermediate storage of carbon dioxide due to similarity in storage characteristics.     

Lessons learned from natural and industrial analogues for storage of carbon dioxide

The deployment of CCS (carbon capture and storage) at industrial scale implies the development of effective monitoring tools. Noble gases are tracers usually proposed to track CO₂. This methodology, combined with the geochemistry of carbon isotopes, has been tested on available analogues.At first, gases from natural analogues were sampled in the Colorado Plateau and in the French carbogaseous provinces, in both well-confined and leaking-sites. Second, we performed a 2-years tracing experience on an underground natural gas storage, sampling gas each month during injection and withdrawal periods.In natural analogues, the geochemical fingerprints are dependent on the containment criterion and on the geological context, giving tools to detect a leakage of deep-CO₂ toward surface. This study also provides information on the origin of CO₂, as well as residence time of fluids within the crust and clues on the physico-chemical processes occurring during the geological story.The study on the industrial analogue demonstrates the feasibility of using noble gases as tracers of CO₂. Withdrawn gases follow geochemical trends coherent with mixing processes between injected gas end-members. Physico-chemical processes revealed by the tracing occur at transient state.These two complementary studies proved the interest of geochemical monitoring to survey the CO₂ behaviour, and gave information on its use.     

Coupling of geochemical reactions and convective mixing in the long-term geological storage of carbon dioxide

The effect of coupling of geochemical reactions with convective mixing of dissolved carbon dioxide during geological storage is investigated by both analytical and numerical techniques. In the limit of fast reactions, scaling arguments and stability analysis show that the time for the onset of convection could be increased by up to an order of magnitude due to consumption of the dissolved carbon dioxide in mineralization. Numerical simulations are then used to investigate the effect of general reaction rates in two contrasting mineralogies, including overall dissolution and the distribution of ion and mineral concentrations.     

Life cycle assessment of carbon dioxide capture and storage from lignite power plants

In this article, we present a life cycle assessment (LCA) of CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) for several lignite power plant technologies. The LCA includes post-combustion, pre-combustion and oxyfuel capture processes as well as subsequent pipeline transport and storage of the separated CO₂ in a depleted gas field.The results show an increase in cumulative energy demand and a substantial decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for all CO₂ capture approaches in comparison with power plants without CCS, assuming negligible leakage within the time horizon under consideration. Leakage will, however, not be zero. Due to the energy penalty, CCS leads to additional production of CO₂. However, the CO₂ emissions occur at a much lower rate and are significantly delayed, thus leading to different, and most likely smaller, impacts compared to the no-sequestration case. In addition, a certain share of the CO₂ will be captured permanently due to chemical reactions and physical trapping.For other environmental impact categories, the results depend strongly on the chosen technology and the details of the process. The post-combustion approach, which is closest to commercial application, leads to sharp increases in many categories of impacts, with the impacts in only one category, acidification, reduced. In comparison with a conventional power plant, the pre-combustion approach results in decreased impact in all categories. This is mainly due to the different power generation process (IGCC) which is coupled with the pre-combustion technology.In the case of the oxyfuel approach, the outcome of the LCA depends highly on two uncertain parameters: the energy demand for air separation and the feasibility of co-capture of pollutants other than CO₂. If co-capture were possible, oxyfuel could lead to a near-zero emission power plant.     

Performance assessments for the geological storage of carbon dioxide: Learning from the radioactive waste disposal experience

The geological storage of carbon dioxide is currently being considered as a possible technology for reducing emissions to atmosphere. Although there are several operational sites where carbon dioxide is stored in this way, methods for assessing the long-term performance and safety of geological storage are at an early stage of development. In this paper the similarities and differences between this field and the geological disposal of radioactive wastes are considered. Priorities are suggested for the development of performance assessment methods for carbon dioxide storage based on areas where experience from radioactive waste disposal can be usefully applied. These include, inter alia, dealing with the various types of uncertainty, using systematic methodologies to ensure an auditable and transparent assessment process, developing whole system models and gaining confidence to model the long-term system evolution by considering information from natural systems. An important area of data shortage remains the potential impacts on humans and ecosystems.     

Certification framework based on effective trapping for geologic carbon sequestration

We have developed a certification framework (CF) for certifying the safety and effectiveness of geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) sites. Safety and effectiveness are achieved if CO₂ and displaced brine have no significant impact on humans, other living things, resources, or the environment. In the CF, we relate effective trapping to CO₂ leakage risk which takes into account both the impact and probability of leakage. We achieve simplicity in the CF by using (1) wells and faults as the potential leakage pathways, (2) compartments to represent environmental resources that may be impacted by leakage, (3) CO₂ fluxes and concentrations in the compartments as proxies for impact to vulnerable entities, (4) broad ranges of storage formation properties to generate a catalog of simulated plume movements, and (5) probabilities of intersection of the CO₂ plume with the conduits and compartments. We demonstrate the approach on a hypothetical GCS site in a Texas Gulf Coast saline formation. Through its generality and flexibility, the CF can contribute to the assessment of risk of CO₂ and brine leakage as part of the certification process for licensing and permitting of GCS sites around the world regardless of the specific regulations in place in any given country.     

Training carbon management engineers: Removing a major hurdle for geologic CO2 storage by increasing educational capacity

Implementing geologic storage of CO₂ at a material scale (ca. 1 Gt C/year) will require an industry comparable in size to the current oil and gas industry and a workforce trained in subsurface engineering. Since the same technologies that apply to hydrocarbon production apply to the subsurface storage of CO₂, petroleum engineering (PE) graduates will be valuable candidates to work in the carbon storage industry. We expect however that the demand for PEs from the oil and gas industry will increase, and that already strained educational capacity will not be sufficient to supply both industries. Thus we advocate building new targeted educational infrastructure. We present a model curriculum based on an existing accredited multidisciplinary degree program. This program combines the fundamentals of petroleum engineering with the subsurface architecture emphasis of geology and the environmental perspective of hydrogeology. We indicate key elements of this program that could be integrated with other, more traditional undergraduate engineering majors that also deal with the subsurface.     

Value of information analysis for adequate monitoring of carbon dioxide storage in geological reservoirs under uncertainty

As monitoring is essential for the proper management of geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the ability to value information from monitoring is indispensable to adequately design a monitoring program. It is necessary to judge whether the expected improvement in management is worth the cost of monitoring. The value of information (VOI) is closely related to the possible increase in expected utility gained by gathering the information, the concept of which can be applied to such judgement. Although VOI analysis has been extensively studied in the context of decision analysis, its application to the management of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) operations is rare. This paper introduces and discusses the methodology of VOI analyses in the context of monitoring CO₂ storage. A motivating problem with discrete probabilities is used to illustrate the concept of VOI. It is demonstrated that information is not always of value; for information to be worthwhile, monitoring under uncertainty must satisfy certain conditions. This concept is then extended to continuous probability distributions. The effects of prior uncertainty and information reliability on the VOI are examined. It is shown that an excessive improvement in information accuracy yields little value and that the optimal level of reliability can be inferred. VOI analyses provide quantitative insights into the value of information-gathering activities and therefore can be an objective means to adequately design and impartially justify a monitoring program.     

Moving from misinformation derived from public attitude surveys on carbon dioxide capture and storage towards realistic stakeholder involvement

Stakeholder involvement (SI) can include many activities, from providing information on a website to one-on-one conversations with people confronting an issue in their community. For carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), there are now quite a few surveys of public attitudes towards CCS that are being used to inform the design of SI efforts. These surveys, focused on the nascent commercial deployment of CCS technologies, have demonstrated that the general public has little knowledge about CCS—yet the surveys go on to collect what are known as “pseudo opinions” or “non-attitudes” of respondents who know little or nothing about CCS. Beyond establishing the lack of knowledge about CCS, the results of these surveys should not be relied upon by the larger CCS community and public and private decision makers to inform the critical task of implementing and executing SI activities. The paper discusses the issues involved in providing information as part of the survey, maintaining that such information is never unbiased and thus tends to produce pseudo opinions that reflect the pollster's or researcher's bias. Other content and methodological issues are discussed, leading to the conclusion that most of the survey results should be used neither as a gauge of public attitudes nor as an indication of public acceptance. Then the framing of SI in CCS is examined, including the assumptions that clear stakeholder acceptance is a realistic goal and that the public has a decisive say in choosing the energy technologies of the present and the future. Finally, a broader suite of SI activities is recommended as more suited to realistic and contextual goals.     

CO2 transportation for carbon capture and storage: Sublimation of carbon dioxide from a dry ice bank

Climate change is being caused by greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂). Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is of interest to the scientific community as one way of achieving significant global reductions of atmospheric CO₂ emissions in the medium term. CO₂ would be captured from large stationary sources such as power plants and transported via pipelines under high pressure conditions to underground storage. If a downward leakage from a surface transportation system module occurs, the CO₂ would undergo a large temperature reduction and form a bank of “dry ice” on the ground surface; the sublimation of the gas from this bank represents an area source term for subsequent atmospheric dispersion, with an emission rate dependent on the energy balance at the bank surface. Gaseous CO₂ is denser than air and tends to remain close to the surface; it is an asphyxiant, a cerebral vasodilator and at high concentrations causes rapid circulatory insufficiency leading to coma and death. Hence a subliming bank of dry ice represents safety hazard. A model is presented for evaluating the energy balance and sublimation rate at the surface of a solid frozen CO₂ bank under different environmental conditions. The results suggest that subliming gas behaves as a proper dense gas (i.e. it remains close to the ground surface) only for low ambient wind speeds.     

Analytical solution for estimating storage efficiency of geologic sequestration of CO2

During injection of carbon dioxide (CO₂) into deep saline aquifers, the available pore volume of the aquifer may be used inefficiently, thereby decreasing the effective capacity of the repository for CO₂ storage. Storage efficiency is the fraction of the available pore space that is utilized for CO₂ storage, or, in other words, it is the ratio between the volume of stored CO₂ and the maximum available pore volume. In this note, we derive and present simple analytical expressions for estimating CO₂ storage efficiency under the scenario of a constant-rate injection of CO₂ into a confined, homogeneous, isotropic, saline aquifer. The expressions for storage efficiency are derived from models developed previously by other researchers describing the shape of the CO₂-brine interface. The storage efficiency of CO₂ is found to depend on three dimensionless groups, namely: (1) the residual saturation of brine after displacement by CO₂; (2) the ratio of CO₂ mobility to brine mobility; (3) a dimensionless group (which we call a “gravity factor”) that quantifies the importance of CO₂ buoyancy relative to CO₂ injection rate. In the particular case of negligible residual brine saturation and negligible buoyancy effects, the storage efficiency is approximately equal to the ratio of the CO₂ viscosity to the brine viscosity. Storage efficiency decreases as the gravity factor increases, because the buoyancy of the CO₂ causes it to occupy a thin layer at the top of the confined formation, while leaving the lower part of the aquifer under-utilized. Estimates of storage efficiency from our simple analytical expressions are in reasonable agreement with values calculated from simulations performed with more complicated multi-phase-flow simulation software. Therefore, we suggest that the analytical expressions presented herein could be used as a simple and rapid tool to screen the technical or economic feasibility of a proposed CO₂ injection scenario.     

Actuarial risk assessment of expected fatalities attributable to carbon capture and storage in 2050

This study estimates the human cost of failures in the CCS industry in 2050, using the actuarial approach. The range of expected fatalities is assessed integrating all steps of the CCS chain: additional coal production, coal transportation, carbon capture, transport, injection and storage, based on empirical evidence from technical or social analogues. The main finding is that a few hundred fatalities per year should be expected if the technology is used to avoid emitting 3.67 GtCO₂ year⁻¹ in 2050 at baseload coal power plants. The large majority of fatalities are attributable to mining and delivering more coal. These risks compare to today's industrial hazards: technical, knowable and occupational dangers for which there are socially acceptable non-zero risk levels. Some contemporary European societies tolerate about one fatality per thousand years around industrial installations. If storage sites perform like that, then expected fatalities per year due to leakage should have a minor contribution in the total expected fatalities per year: less than one. But to statistically validate such a safety level, reliability theory and the technology roadmap suggest that CO₂ storage demonstration projects over the next 20 years have to cause exactly zero fatality.     

Numerical investigation concerning the impact of CO2 geologic storage on regional groundwater flow

Large-scale storage of carbon dioxide in saline aquifers may cause considerable pressure perturbation and brine migration in deep rock formations, which may have a significant influence on the regional groundwater system. With the help of parallel computing techniques, we conducted a comprehensive, large-scale numerical simulation of CO₂ geologic storage that predicts not only CO₂ migration, but also its impact on regional groundwater flow. As a case study, a hypothetical industrial-scale CO₂ injection in Tokyo Bay, which is surrounded by the most heavily industrialized area in Japan, was considered, and the impact of CO₂ injection on near-surface aquifers was investigated, assuming relatively high seal-layer permeability (higher than 10 microdarcy). A regional hydrogeological model with an area of about 60 km × 70 km around Tokyo Bay was discretized into about 10 million gridblocks. To solve the high-resolution model efficiently, we used a parallelized multiphase flow simulator TOUGH2-MP/ECO2N on a world-class high performance supercomputer in Japan, the Earth Simulator. In this simulation, CO₂ was injected into a storage aquifer at about 1 km depth under Tokyo Bay from 10 wells, at a total rate of 10 million tons/year for 100 years. Through the model, we can examine regional groundwater pressure buildup and groundwater migration to the land surface. The results suggest that even if containment of CO₂ plume is ensured, pressure buildup on the order of a few bars can occur in the shallow confined aquifers over extensive regions, including urban inlands.     

A statistical analysis of the carbon dioxide capture process

Post combustion carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture is one of the most commonly adopted technologies for reducing industrial CO₂ emissions, which is now an important goal given the widespread concern over global warming. Research on amine-based CO₂ capture has mainly focused on improving effectiveness and efficiency of the CO₂ capture process. Our research work focuses on studying the relationships among the significant parameters influencing CO₂ production because an enhanced understanding of the intricate relationships among the parameters involved in the process is critical for improving efficiency of the CO₂ capture process. This paper presents a statistical study that explores the relationships among parameters involved in the amine-based post combustion CO₂ capture process at the International Centre for CO₂ Capture (ITC) located in Regina, Saskatchewan of Canada. A multiple regression technique has been applied for analysis of data collected at the CO₂ capture pilot plant at ITC. The parameters have been carefully selected to avoid issues of multicollinearity, and four mathematical models among the key parameters identified have been developed. The models have been tested, and accuracy of the models is found to be satisfactory. The models developed in this study describe part of the CO₂ capture process and can help to predict performance of the CO₂ capture process at ITC under different conditions. Some results from a preliminary validation process will also be presented.