The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND

This paper studies the effects of adaptation and mitigation on the impacts of sea level rise. Without adaptation, the impact of sea level rise would be substantial, almost wiping out entire countries by 2100, although the globally aggregate effect is much smaller. Adaptation would reduce potential impacts by a factor 10–100. Adaptation would come at a minor cost compared to the damage avoided. As adaptation depends on socio-economic status, the rank order of most vulnerable countries is different than the rank order of most exposed countries. Because the momentum of sea level rise is so large, mitigation can reduce impacts only to a limited extent. Stabilising carbon dioxide concentrations at 550 ppm would cut impacts in 2100 by about 10%. However, the costs of emission reduction lower the avoided impacts by up to 25% (average 10%). This is partly due to the reduced availability of resources for adaptation, and partly due to the increased sensitivity to wetland loss by adaptation.

Vulnerability risk assessment and adaptation to climate change induced sea level rise along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt

Consequence of the sea level rise (SLR) on the Mediterranean coastal areas in Egypt, particularly the Nile River Delta, has become an issue of major concern to Egypt’s population and the government. Previous publications disregard the entire Mediterranean coast of Egypt as an integral unit subject to the impacts of the SLR. This study aims to analyzing the risks, ranking the vulnerability and suggesting adaptation measures to mitigate the impact of the SLR along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt. Although the prominent features of Egypt’s Mediterranean coastal zone are the low lying coast of the Nile Delta, associated with land subsidence, tectonic activities and erosion; the contiguous coastal sectors are backed by shore-parallel carbonate ridges and Plateau (the western coast) and sand dune belts (Sinai coast). The coastal zone is ranked as high, moderate, and low vulnerable to the SLR. The social and biophysical vulnerabilities demonstrate the asymmetrical impacts of the SLR on the Mediterranean coast of Egypt. Areas at risk in the Alexandria region are Mandara and El Tarh whereas in the Nile Delta region, they are the Manzala Lagoon barrier, east and west of the Rosetta City, Gamil, and the Tineh plain. Risk associated with these impacts may be reduced provided the consideration of immediate and adequate adaptation measures.     

Vulnerability assessment and adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise on the Kingdom of Bahrain

This paper assesses quantitatively the impact of sea level rise (SLR) at the global and regional scale as a result of climate change (CC) on the coastal areas of the Kingdom of Bahrain’s islands (36 Islands). The standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines was modified as appropriate for the situation of the study area. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) coupled with Remote Sensing (RS) were used as the main techniques of collecting, analyzing, modeling simulating and disseminating information to build SLR scenarios in a geographically referenced context. Also, these tools were used to assess vulnerability and risk of the coastal area of the islands with the expectation that coastal planner and government authorities will profit from integrating these knowledge into a broad based environmental decision making. Three SLR scenarios: low, moderate and high were developed to examine the impacts from SLR on all islands. The low SLR scenario (Optimistic) assumes a 0.5-m rise above current sea level, the moderate scenario (Intermediate) assumes a one meter rise, and the high scenario (Pessimistic) assumes a 1.5 m rise in sea level. Two more SLR scenarios were assumed to perform risk analysis, a 2 and 5 meter rise above current sea level. The simulation of SLR are quite straightforward, emphasizing on the uses of both of the data that are incorporated from the satellite images and the created Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to estimate SLR scenarios that are adapted in the study. These data were used to predict consequences of the possibility of the rise in sea level at different scenarios which may alter the landuse and patterns of human communities. Results indicate that low-lying coastal areas of Bahrain islands are at risk from the effects of any SLR resulting from CC. These islands are vulnerable under different SLR Scenarios. More than 17% of the country total area may be inundated under 1.5 m SLR in 2100. The total area that might be lost under different sea level scenarios will vary from more than 77 km² if SLR reaches 0.5 m, to about 100 km² under 1.0 m SLR and may reach 124 km² under 1.5 m SLR scenario. The total inundated areas due to risk scenarios will reach 133 km², if the SLR rises to 2.0 m, and it is estimated to be more than (22%) of the main island total area. Under the second scenario, if the SLR reaches 5.0 m, the main islands will lose approximately half of its area (47%) equal to 280 km². Hawar islands group will lose about (30%) of its total area under 2.0 m SLR, which is about 15.5 km².A SLR adaptation policy framework (APF) and adaptation policy initiatives (APIs) are suggested for planners to build upon for reducing the likely effects of SLR in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The framework is composed of four steps namely, acquisition of information, planning and design, implementation and monitoring and evaluation. A general policy framework for a national response to SLR is suggested. Additionally, a range of policy adaptation options/initiatives to sustain coastal developments under the likely effects of SLR are recommended.     

Assessing inundation damage and timing of adaptation: sea level rise and the complexities of land use in coastal communities

Climate change exacerbates the public policy challenges already present in managing contested landscapes. Coastal managers deal with multiple stressors and multiple stakeholders and have a difficult challenge in managing competing land use as sea level rise (SLR) reduces the amount of prized coastal land. The information needed to inform on the type and timing of adaptation strategies reflects a major gap in the planning and implementation of adaptation options. We present here an inundation risk assessment framework (IRAF) for estimating the impacts of increasing SLR inundation extent probabilities and the cost of inundation damage through time for public and private infrastructure assets. The framework integrates the cost of damage across asset classes in order to help decision-makers judge the economic utility of various adaptation options and the timing of implementation. We provide an example of this methodology using a case study from Southeast Australia in a low lying estuarine region with an increasingly urbanized population. The methodology shows a clear pathway in which to integrate multiple asset classes into a temporally based damage cost analysis. Such methodology will help address the timing of adaptation and allow for the development of trigger points to guide adaptation planning. Thus, the framework developed in this paper can be easily transferred to other regions and countries facing the same types of SLR risks. As SLR and inundation encroachment continue to occur, decisions regarding protection, repair, and retreat will be made depending on the resources available to local governments. The challenge is to balance decision making with both the timing of implementation as well as costs (both of action and inaction). By understanding the areas of land lost to inundation and the cost of inaction through time, local governments can assess the rationality of adaptation at points in the present and future.     

Economy-wide impacts of climate change: a joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism

While climate change impacts on human life have well defined and different origins, the interactions among the diverse impacts are not yet fully understood. Their final effects, however, especially those involving social-economic responses, are likely to play an important role. This paper is one of the first attempts to disentangle and highlight the role of these interactions. It focuses on the economic assessment of two specific climate change impacts: sea-level rise and changes in tourism flows. By using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model the two impacts categories are first analysed separately and then jointly. Considered separately, in 2050, the forecasted 25 cm. of sea level rise imply a GDP loss ranging from (−) 0.1% in South East Asia to almost no loss in Canada, while redistribution of tourism flows – which in terms of arrivals favours Western Europe, Japan, Korea and Canada and penalises all the other world regions – triggers GDP losses ranging from (−) 0.5% in Small Island States to (−) 0.0004% in Canada. GDP gainers are Australia, New Zealand, Western Europe, Middle East and South Asia. The impact of sea level rise and tourism were simulated jointly and the results compared with those of the two disjoint simulations. From a qualitative point of view, the joint effects are similar to the outcomes of the disjoint exercises; from a quantitative perspective, however, impact interaction does play a significant role. In six cases out of 16 there is a detectable (higher than 2% and peaking to 70%) difference between the sum of the outcomes in the disjoint simulation and the outcomes of the joint simulations. Moreover, the relative contribution of each single impact category has been disentangled from the final result. In the case under scrutiny, demand shocks induced by changes in tourism flows outweigh the supply-side shock induced by the loss of coastal land.

Guidelines for the strategic management of flood risks in industrial plant oil in the Brazilian coast: adaptive measures to the impacts by relative sea level rise

This study provides guidelines for strategic management in industrial oil plants linked to uncertainties of climate change through the development of integrated planning methodology with focus on coastal flooding events caused by relative sea level rise (RSLR). The research site is in Redonda Island, located in Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro City, Brazil, and since 1960, it constitutes an industrial oil plant facility. The region suffers interaction with storms and meteorological tides from extratropical cyclones over the South Atlantic Ocean, being vulnerable to risks of disasters, floods, and coastal erosion. A Program on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments to Relative Sea Level Rise (“Programa de Avaliação e Adaptação às Vulnerabilidades de Elevação do Nível Relativo do Mar—PAAVENRM”) was developed to avoid compromising the regional and local development in the industrial system of the island, which is an ad hoc instrument designed to anticipate and reduce risks, damages, and losses by occurrence of extreme climatic events in coastal areas prone to flooding caused by RSLR. Results from computer simulation modeling indicate 37 prospective qualitative scenarios that consolidate the conditions of future climate vulnerability of the plant, starting from United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) information for RSLR up to 2100. Three quantitative forecasting scenarios were simulated, under boundary conditions preset for different altimetric ranges subject to submersion, based upon ordinary and extraordinary tides measured in the area in relation to RSLR, which allowed the evaluation of the industrial infrastructure at risk. Furthermore, three thematic maps were elaborated for the planning of specific coastal protection interventions. Percentages of physical damage and property losses were estimated. The importance of applying guidelines for medium and long-term corporate strategy management, integrating the risk of flooding, the rigging of civil defense systems, meteorology, and of the plans, programs, and existing systems and others to be developed is highlighted. From this perspective, the proposed scenarios help to identify the most relevant alternatives for mitigation and adaptation under technical criteria for decision making in the study area.     

The crestline approach for assessing the development of coastal flooding due to sea level rise

One of the most pressing issues in studying the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) triggered by climate change is understanding the development of the hazard of permanent coastal flooding. The issue persists because available approaches are based on the mapping of the inundated area where they explore the coastal flooding development across terrain elevations, that is—horizontally. In addition, they overlook the existing structures along or in the vicinity of the coastline, which have inherent hydraulic properties that may affect the development of such flooding. The purpose of this study is to develop a novel approach for assessing the development of permanent coastal flooding due to SLR at cross sections along the coastline, that is—vertically, in full consideration of underlying hydraulic properties of the existing coastline. An approach was developed using analogy of existing coastline to a contiguous weir. This approach was named crestline approach and was developed as a four step GIS-based approach that could be applied at any coastal zone. An example application on one of the top ranked cities in the world prone to the SLR threat has been provided to illustrate exactly how to apply the crestline approach. The novelty of this approach lies in its ability to accurately identify the specific locations where coastal flooding will initiate, in full consideration of existing natural/manmade coastal structures. This study is significant for the opportunities it provides to analysts and decision makers to better understand the development of permanent coastal flooding.     

Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA

This paper applies the DIVA model to assess the risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise for the European Union in the 21st century under the A2 and B1 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For each scenario, impacts are estimated without and with adaptation in the form of increasing dike heights and nourishing beaches. Before 2050, the level of impacts is primarily determined by socio-economic development. In 2100 and assuming no adaptation, 780?×?10³ people/year are estimated to be affected by coastal flooding under A2 and 200?×?10³ people/year under B1. The total monetary damage caused by flooding, salinity intrusion, land erosion and migration is projected to be about US$ 17?×?10⁹ under both scenarios in 2100; damage costs relative to GDP are highest for the Netherlands (0.3% of GDP under A2). Adaptation reduces the number of people flooded by factors of 110 to 288 and total damage costs by factors of 7 to 9. In 2100 adaptation costs are projected to be US$ 3.5?×?10⁹ under A2 and 2.6?×?10⁹ under B1; adaptation costs relative to GDP are highest for Estonia (0.16% under A2) and Ireland (0.05% under A2). These results suggest that adaptation measures to sea-level rise are beneficial and affordable, and will be widely applied throughout the European Union.     

Water security as a challenge for the sustainability of La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation in northern Chile: global perspectives and adaptation

The aim of this study is to address the problem of balance between water scarcity and sustainability, which are the key components of water security of cities located in arid lands, particularly those under constant expansion and population growth. In this paper, we have highlighted the problem of water security for the sustainability of the La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation (LSCC). The coastal LSCC is located at the outlet of the Elqui River basin, in the southern edge of the Chilean Atacama Desert. We have analyzed the available information including drinking water production and consumption data, groundwater levels, precipitation data and population data. Between the years 2009 and 2013 the total water consumption for the area has significantly increased. On the other hand, there has been a significant decrease trend in the precipitations and the groundwater levels show a decrease of about 30 m between the years 1995 and 2014. In a few years, this urban area could face a general water scarcity problem if the drought conditions remain unchanged and if the water demand trend for the agricultural, mining and drinking water continues its increasing. The cities located in the arid lands are particularly vulnerable to water scarcity because their populations are highly concentrated and requires reliable supplies of water to make possible human and economic activities. We discuss how adaptation of the arid land urban areas to water scarcity requires a range of solutions, including economic incentives, regulatory measures, and technology.     

脆弱地质景观评价体系研究—以江西鹰潭龙虎山丹霞地貌景观为例

我国地质资源开发过程中对外部环境的抗干扰能力低、自身稳定性差、易破碎或消亡的脆弱地质景观缺乏足够认识。本文运用层次分析法建立脆弱地质景观评价体系,包含脆弱性和景观性两方面九个评价因子,并对评价因子赋值及划分脆弱地质景观等级。运用脆弱地质景观评价体系评价龙虎山丹霞地貌30处代表性景观,所得结果与实际调查吻合,且可为地质遗迹保护提供参考。     

Mitigation and adaptation investments for desertification and climate change: an assessment of the socioeconomic return

Climate change will further increase the risk of desertification, which is already affecting large areas of the world. Many countries are making investments for the implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies to combat desertification. The long term effectiveness of these strategies necessarily require a socioeconomic return for its sustainability. The main goal of our paper is to assess the relation between the mitigation and adaptation investments and the socio-economy of the rural population. The area of study is located in north-central Chile. The northern regions are mostly composed by arid land, which can be considered as a marginal area for agriculture. The area formed by the southern regions is optimal for the agricultural activity which is characterized by an industrialized agriculture with and increased use of technology. The indicators we have used for our study are the following: the Investments provided by the Chilean Agriculture Livestock and Forestry (ALF) promotion agencies, the ALF Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Population Employed in ALF. The results show that the relationship between the investments and the socioeconomy varies among the regions analyzed. Investments are positively correlated (P?≤?0.05) with the ALF GDP and the labor in ALF in the northern regions, but do not seem to be directly related to labor in ALF in the southern regions (P?≥?0.05). Therefore, our conclusion is that the Investments are significantly relevant for the agricultural activity in the arid northern regions, while in the southern regions they have no direct impact on the labor in ALF.     

南岭东段含稀土矿花岗岩体中暗色包体地质特征——以陂头岩体为例

在野外地质调查和室内综合研究的基础上,通过研究南岭东段风化壳淋积型矿中含稀土矿花岗岩层中暗色包体的地质特征,发现分布在岩体中的大量暗色包体具流面和流线构造,主要组成矿物为石英、辉石和斜长石,具典型的辉长结构。暗色包体低硅、钾和钠,高钙、铝、镁、铁、钛和锰,属亚碱性—铝不饱和型;富集U、La、Pr、Nd、Sm、Dy,亏损Nb、Sr、Zr、Hf、Ti等微量元素;REE总量低于寄主含矿花岗岩层稀土总量,Ce和Eu具有明显的负异常。这些特征说明暗色包体的原岩可能来自早期基性岩,其形成与燕山早期陂头岩体的分异演化关系密切。与南岭地区花岗岩中此类暗色包体进行对比,有助于在该区寻找稀土矿床和稀有金属矿床。     

水位变动条件下二元结构岸坡稳定性分析——以扬中市指南村崩岸段岸坡为例

以指南村崩岸段岸坡为研究对象,通过实地调查开展地质钻探工作,获取岸坡土体的物理力学参数,并基于饱和-非饱和土渗流理论、非饱和土抗剪强度理论及极限平衡法,研究江水水位变动过程中二元结构岸坡稳定性的变化。结果表明:(1)岸坡土体为二元结构,上层为粉质黏土,下层为粉砂,粉砂层厚度较大且透水性较好,为地下水流动提供良好环境。(2)水位变动引起的饱和-非饱和土渗流对于岸坡稳定性有明显影响,岸坡稳定性在涨水期随水位上升而增大,在退水期随水位下降而减小。退水期安全系数明显低于相同条件下涨水期和洪水期,即水位降落导致岸坡稳定性降低,极易发生岸坡崩塌。(3)水位上升速度越快,岸坡安全系数最大值越大,即岸坡在水位骤涨时更加稳定;水位下降速度越快,岸坡安全系数的最小值越小,即岸坡在水位骤降时更容易发生失稳崩塌。     

基于LMDI的能源消费碳排放影响因素研究——以唐山市为例

唐山市作为我国钢铁和焦炭产能最为集中的城市,产业结构偏重,能源消费结构以煤为主,温室气体减排压力巨大。本文分析了唐山市2010—2017年能源消费和碳排放的变化特征,然后通过LMDI分解方法对唐山市能源消费碳排放因素进行分解,发现经济发展是其碳排放增长最主要的拉动因素,人口增长也对碳排放有一定贡献,而能源强度下降则很大程度上抑制了碳排放的增加,产业结构调整和能源结构改善虽也起到了一定的抑制作用,但影响十分有限。唐山市应继续推进能源结构低碳化,削减煤炭消费总量并提高清洁能源使用率,同时优化产业结构,持续推进化解钢铁、焦炭过剩产能,鼓励、推进第三产业和战略性新兴产业的发展,向绿色低碳发展模式转变。     

Land use as a mitigation strategy for the water-quality impacts of global warming: a scenario analysis on two watersheds in the Ohio River Basin

This study uses an integrative approach to study the water-quality impacts of future global climate and land-use changes. In this study, changing land-use types was used as a mitigation strategy to reduce the adverse impacts of global climate change on water resources. The climate scenarios were based on projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Kingdom Hadley Centre's climate model (HadCM2). The Thornthwaite water-balance model was coupled with a land-use model (L-THIA) to investigate the hydrologic effects of future climate and land-use changes in the Ohio River Basin. The land-use model is based on the Soil Conservation Service's curve-number method. It uses the curve number, an index of land use and soil type, to calculate runoff volume and depth. The ArcView programming language, Avenue, was used to integrate the two models into a geographic information system (GIS). An output of the water-balance model, daily precipitation values adjusted for potential evapotranspiration, served as one of the inputs into the land-use model. Two watersheds were used in the present study: one containing the city of Cincinnati on the main stem of the Ohio River, and one containing the city of Columbus on a tributary of the Ohio River. These cities represent two major metropolitan areas in the Ohio River Basin with different land uses experiencing different rates of population growth. The projected hypothetical land-use changes were based on linear extrapolations of current population data. Results of the analyses indicate that conversion from agricultural land use to low-density residential land use may decrease the amount of surface runoff. The land-use practices which generate the least amount of runoff are forest, low-density residential, and agriculture; whereas high-density residential and commercial land-use types produce the highest runoff. The hydrologic soil type present was also an important factor in determining the amount of runoff and non-point-source pollution. A runoff-depth matrix and total nitrogen matrix were created for Cincinnati and Columbus to describe possible land-use mitigation measures in response to global climate change. The differences in Cincinnati and Columbus were due to differences in geographic location, air temperature, and total runoff. The results of this study may be useful to planners and policy makers for defining the possible impacts of future global climate and land-use changes on water resources.     

Changes in quality of groundwater with seasonal fluctuations: an example from Ghor Safi area, southern Dead Sea coastal aquifers, Jordan

Introduction The alluvial fan along the eastern and southern m argins of the D ead Sea (hereafter denoted D S) consists of fine to coarse-grained siliclastic sand and pebble-size gravel w ith thin intercalations of lam inated m arl of H olocene age (Pow e…     

花岗岩铀地球化学特征新认识——以赣南富城产铀花岗岩体为例

对富城花岗岩U、T h含量分析结果进行的频数统计分析表明富城花岗岩U的均值为8.92×1-0 6、众数为8.0×10-6、中位数为7.03×1-0 6,其概率密度曲线偏向高端呈右偏非对称分布(偏度系数CSK=1.10)。T h的均值、众数和中位数三者一致,分别为25.7×10-6,25.75×10-6,25.8×1-0 6,其概率密度曲线呈对称正态分布(偏度系数CSK=0.11)。核诱发裂变径迹研究查明富城花岗岩中铀有4种存在形式:(1)显微粒状铀矿物(晶质铀矿);(2)以类质同像形式存在于锆石、磷灰石等副矿物之中;(3)均匀分散赋存在造岩矿物晶格之中的结构铀;(4)沿造岩矿物(长石、石英)微裂隙及粒间分布的非结构铀。对富城花岗岩铀配分研究发现,赋存在造岩矿物中均匀分散状的结构铀含量与全岩铀不呈消长关系,而是存在一定的极限值:长石、石英<3×1-0 6,白云母<5×10-6,黑云母<9×10-6。溶浸实验结果表明,富城花岗岩活动性铀浸出率很高(平均值52%),为富城花岗岩具有较大铀成矿潜力提供了佐证。     

气候变化背景下能源转型的地方战略——以德国、美国和日本为例

近年来,加快全球能源转型、实现绿色低碳发展已经成为国际社会的共同使命。在能源转型的进程中,能源结构由传统集中式逐步走向社区分散式,公民由被动接受能源决策向主动参与能源治理实践转变。德国、美国、日本在地方能源转型中根据地区特点衍生出能源合作社、地方型能源公司、公民电厂等发展模式,充分强调公民的参与权利,因地制宜地发挥地方政府的能源治理作用,实现了公民与地方政府在能源转型过程中的良性互动。三国地方政府享有充分的土地利用规划权、成熟的公民参与能源治理途径及多样化的跨域能源合作等经验,对我国地方推动能源转型、应对气候变化具有借鉴意义。