防灾工程中的计算机仿真技术

本文提出了防灾工程中计算机仿真的作用、思路及主要技术关键,并通过若干例子,包括混凝土构件破坏,岩石块体崩塌,地震作用下房屋碎片分布,房屋在爆炸作用下倒塌等说明仿真技术的应用。     

弹性波法测试火灾后混凝土动弹性模量应用研究

混凝土动弹性模量是混凝土构件在动荷载作用下应力与应变的比值,是混凝土建筑物承受动荷载(包括地震荷载、冲击、爆炸)作用及灾害影响(火灾、酸雨侵蚀等)后,分析结构力学特性的一个重要参数,同时也是评价混凝土耐久性安全性的一个关键指标.该文对比介绍了基于冲击弹性波的动弹性模量测试方法、原理,并给出相关验证实例及对比材料.通过对...     

基于遥感影像的城市震害模拟

探讨了基于遥感影像图进行城市地震灾害模拟的可行性，提出了一套利用GIS栅格分析功能进行城市地震灾害模拟的方法。详细论述了一种从TM／ETM＋遥感影像图提取群体建筑物专题信息并创建群体建筑物栅格的方法，以及场地地震动峰值加速度（PGA）衰减栅格、工程场地条件栅格的创建方法。结合调查资料，对某市群体建筑物进行了基于栅格的地震破坏模拟，得到了可信的地震灾害模拟结果，说明基于栅格分析城市地震灾害具有可行性。     

汶川地震灾区过渡房安置点场地选择中的地震问题

大地震后,如何在最短的时间内在灾区选择比较安全的过渡房安置点建设场地,是一项具有挑战性的工作。本文以四川省汶川8.0级大地震后灾区群众快速安置为背景,论述了选择过渡房安置点场地必须考虑的地震问题,并提出了处理地震断层、地表裂缝、砂土液化、坍塌等实际问题的方案;利用强余震的预测结果,分析了这些灾害对场地可能造成的危害;同时对可能潜在的滑坡、危岩崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害提出相应的处理建议,供安置点规划建设参考。     

基于GIS的城镇建筑物易损性分析与应用研究

利用城镇地籍数据信息,基于GIS软件进行建筑物易损性和居民安全风险分析与应用研究。通过对某县城中最具代表性的一个街坊建筑物的易损性分析和居民安全风险分析实例应用研究,重点讨论并实现了利用现有数字化地籍图、城镇地籍数据库及土地调查记录等信息;并结合建筑物震害损失评估模型和人员伤亡预测方法,完成不同结构类型的建筑物在不同地震烈度条件下的破坏造成的经济损失评估和人员伤亡程度的预测,对城市防灾减灾进行辅助决策支持与评估。     

Building community resilience: business preparedness lessons in the case of Adapazarı, Turkey

The lack of attention paid to businesses in disaster management systems from the standpoint of state policies hampers efforts to build community resilience. This paper examines, therefore, the extent of business preparedness for disasters. Empirical research was conducted in Adapazarı, Turkey, 13 years after the İzmit earthquake, which struck the northwest of the country on 17 August 1999, claiming the lives of some 17,000 people. For the study, 232 firms were selected to inquire about their preparedness before and after the event. It is hypothesised that business preparedness is influenced by the following set of variables: business size; business sector; business age; financial condition prior to the disaster; occupancy tenure; market range; education level; and previous disaster experience. In line with the findings of the research, a policy framework is constructed to rationalise the allocation of resources for building resilience at the aggregate level by facilitating business preparedness.     

大型公共场所风险评价研究现状与展望

大型公共场所由于人群高度密集和财富高度集中的特点,其防灾减灾问题一直是城市防灾减灾的重点和难点,其风险性研究直接影响到城市防灾减灾安全工程建设及管理策略的制定实施.全面调研了国内外大型公共场所风险评价指标体系及评价方法的研究现状,分析了大型公共场所风险评价的重要地位,指出了大型公共场所风险评价方面存在的问题,并提出了有关大型公共场所风险评价方面的几点建议.     

大中城市震害预测与辅助决策的空间分析

利用GIS的空间分析功能，对大中城市防震减灾示范研究成果进行了空间区划分析，给出了城市高危害街区的计算方法和结果，同时给出了各种结构类型房屋破坏面积、人员伤亡和无家可归人口数在各个街区的空间分布结果，以及基于此空间分布结果的医疗救护、人员疏散和物资供应等辅助决策分析。该分析的主要意义在于能充分了解大中城市潜在震害的空间分布，为震前采取相应预防措施和震后开展应急救灾工作提供了方便。     

考虑典型密集建筑群影响的爆炸超压空间分布规律分析

爆炸已逐渐成为影响人们生活的典型灾害,一旦在建筑密集的城市环境中发生爆炸事故,相应灾后评估工作是十分重要的,而爆炸灾害评估与爆炸超压空间分布密切相关。提出了一种与空间分布相关的爆炸灾害评估方法,明确考虑建筑群影响的爆炸波传播机制及其影响因素分析,研究爆炸波能量衰减规律以及具有时变特点的超压空间分布规律,确定与破坏程度密切相关的3种典型超压影响范围。根据超压影响范围对单体建筑物以及密集建筑群中同一建筑物进行分区,确定3种区域的等压线位置,界定爆炸的影响范围。利用LS-DYNA软件进行模拟分析,分别建立炸药在刚性地面上单体建筑物及密集建筑群爆炸响应有限元分析模型,绘制建筑物上的等压曲线,得出影响建筑物上超压分布的主要因素主要为比例距离和建筑群密集程度。     

工程抗震和城市防灾新技术研究状况与发展方向

简要回顾了地震工程研究的发展历程,分析了工程结构抗震技术的现状和发展方向,对生命线工程和城市综合减灾以及提高城市防灾技术的研究和应用水平提出若干意见,并对单灾种防御到多灾害综合防御体系建设提出建议。     

防灾公园的减灾功能

地震灾害避难疏散的经验与教训表明 ,城市公园是重要的避难场所 ;防灾公园是减灾功能特别强的城市公园 ;城市公园改造成防灾公园或规划建设新的防灾公园可以提高城市公园的综合防灾减灾功能。发生城市突发事件时 ,防灾公园可以用作紧急避难所、灾害对策据点。防灾公园具有供居民避难以及确保避难人员基本生活条件的功能、防灾减灾功能、情报收集与传递功能、医疗与救护功能、运输基地功能等。强化防灾公园减灾功能的主要措施是广泛采用高新科学技术 ,并对防灾公园系统实施综合性的科学管理     

Permanent post-disaster housing in honduras: aspects of vulnerability to future disasters

To some degree it is unfair to evaluate a post-disaster housing program as to its effectiveness in decreasing vulnerability and preventing future disasters. As Burton states, "With rare exceptions, administrators and techniques have been trained to cope with disaster rather than to prevent it" [reference (2), p.197]. These were certainly not goals articulated by the agency responsible for constructing housing after Fifi. However, the authors feel that failure to evaluate specific projects by persons knowledgeable of the projects functioning, will only forestall the shift which Cuny calls for, "… from disaster response to disaster mitigation and prevention" [reference (4), p.123). In doing this we hope to add some specific case study data to the growing literature on disaster mitigation and prevention. Disaster vulnerability in Honduras is overwhelmingly related to flooding. More crucial than the materials and construction of housing is the issue of siting. If appropriately sited, houses made of bajarique, wood, or concrete block are able to withstand the heavy rains associated with a hurricane. Regarding the siting of the projects, the Honduras Project clearly has one positive and one negative accomplishment in the cases of Santa Rica and Flores, respectively. San Jose is less clear but is certainly a much safer site than those formerly occupied by the residents, in that there is no danger of flooding. The present site was not flooded during Fifi nor did it experience mudslides. However, the future is not so clear regarding the latter. Within the village proper a large amount of vegetation has been added which will tend to stabilise the soil on the steeper slopes. The streets, however, are seriously eroded and probably can not be maintained for vehicle usage, which does not pose a serious problem to the residents as none possess automobiles or trucks. One large gully bisects the village and receives run-off from the adjacent hills. It has been expanding, which would suggest that the slopes above the village could prove problematic in case of a Fifi-sized storm. Flores is located on a very poor site in reference to prevention and mitigation. It is located in a portion of the Sula Valley which is prone to flooding and, as mentioned before, was inundated by over 2m of water during hurricane Fifi. No prevention techniques were possible by NAEA/HEA and the houses were built on earthen mounds barely adequate to keep water out during the rainy season. The nearby dike which could possibly provide protection is non-functional due to poor maintainance. Given a storm of Fifi's magnitude, or possibly smaller, this site will again be flooded. Santa Rica is clearly well sited concerning flooding: it did not experience flooding during Fifi and is not flood prone. However, houses did experience some wall damage due to earthquakes following and associated with the Guatemalan quake of 1976. Due to the size and nature of the latter much "re-adjustment" occurred in the neighbouring fault system; however, damage to the houses was all superficial. We feel the residents were vocal about their concern due to the severity of the Guatemalan disaster and their lack of experience with concrete block houses. That the two sites (particularly Flores and partially San Jose) are vulnerable to future disasters cannot be considered solely the fault of an outside agency without local knowledge and understanding. In the engineering report issued during the construction it was explicitly stated that in Flores, "Future flooding remains a danger," [reference (6), p.49]. The future residents of Flores had gained access to the land from the National Agrarian Institute and were anxious to receive assistance in building homes. In fact, CARE, which had previously given these people tin roofing for houses, was threatening to take it back since the people had not yet started building. NAEA/HEA were responding to people in a rather desperate situation. But, on the other hand, they were responding to people who had been promised (not given) land by an agency of the Honduran national government which would be cognizant of the potential flooding at this site. Likewise, in San Jose, where mudslides and erosion remain a threat, the land was provided by a local government agency, the municipality. Although our goal in this discussion has not been to establish blame, we feel it imperative to mention the sequence of events that resulted in the questionable siting of Flores and San Jose. It is very easy and often accurate to place blame on outsiders who lack sophistication and knowledge about such matters. In this case local input did not result in post-disaster planning that is actually precautionary. This, we feel, illustrates the extreme complexity of cross-cultural aid, especially in the post-disaster period. It also points to the need for precautionary planning with reference to permanent post-disaster reconstruction.     

Flagship regeneration project as a tool for post-disaster recovery planning: the Zeytinburnu case

Sustainable redevelopment following disasters has been a main policy objective of post-disaster recovery efforts over the past few decades. Yet, nine years after the 1999 Marmara earthquake in Turkey, the redevelopment of risky housing areas is still a point of debate on the urban planning and disaster mitigation agenda. However, planning studies on mildly and moderately damaged areas located in the centre of Istanbul are ongoing. This article presents the evidence of a pilot project undertaken by Zeytinburnu Municipality, Istanbul, four years after the Marmara earthquake. ² The aim is to generate a debate on the preconditions required for a sustainable urban regeneration approach in the post-disaster recovery phase. The results of the pilot project underline the importance of capacity building in sustaining social capital, strengthening the legal framework, restructuring planning regulations, and managing the housing redevelopment process by taking advantage of a window of opportunity afforded by the disaster recovery period.     

Comparative analysis of permanent post-disaster houses constructed in Çankırı and Dinar

A major challenge after an earthquake is how to establish a new residential area of a similar or even improved standard for people who have suffered psychological, social and economic impacts and witnessed significant damage to the physical environment. As part of a research project conducted in 2005 and 2008, questionnaires were administered to the permanent occupiers of post‐disaster houses in the Turkish cities of Çank?r? and Dinar. They were asked to compare the comfort levels and other characteristics of the houses in which they now reside with those of the traditional houses in which they used to live. The survey revealed that such aspects do not differ between the two types of accommodation. However, differences were identified between the two areas under review (Çank?r? and Dinar). In addition, average scores for traditional houses were higher than those for post‐disaster houses in both places.     

沙堆模型动力学特性与灾害系统演化预测研究

基于自组织临界性的理论框架,针对处于周期区与混沌区之间状态的灾害系统,研究其可预测性及预测方法.通过均匀和非均匀沙堆对比实验,发现两类沙堆模型表现出两种动力学行为--自组织临界性和准周期性.采用时序分析、功率谱分析和R/S分析等多种方法分析了两类系统的演化行为,反映了灾害系统的可预测特征;进一步提出了灾害预测的几个研究方向及方法.最后以极值统计法为例,介绍了其在两类灾害预测中的应用.     

Quantitative assessment of post‐disaster housing recovery: a case study of Punta Gorda,Florida, after Hurricane Charley

Quantitative assessment of post‐disaster housing recovery is critical to enhancing understanding of the process and improving the decisions that shape it. Nevertheless, few comprehensive empirical evaluations of post‐disaster housing recovery have been conducted, and no standard measurement methods exist. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of housing recovery in Punta Gorda, Florida, United States, following Hurricane Charley of August 2004, including an overview of the phases of housing recovery, progression of recovery over time, alternative trajectories of recovery, differential recovery, incorporation of mitigation, and effect on property sales. The assessment is grounded in a conceptual framework that considers the recovery of both people and place, and that emphasises recovery as a process, not as an endpoint. Several data sources are integrated into the assessment—including building permits, remotely sensed imagery, and property appraiser data—and their strengths and limitations are discussed with a view to developing a standardised method for measuring and monitoring housing recovery.     

Nation‐building policies in Timor‐Leste: disaster risk reduction,including climate change adaptation

Few studies have explored the relationships between nation‐building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation‐building in Timor‐Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation‐building in Timor‐Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor‐Leste's history and its nation‐building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation‐building in Timor‐Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor‐Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths.     

Fiji's worst natural disaster: the 1931 hurricane and flood

At least 225 people in the Fiji Islands died as a result of the 1931 hurricane and flood, representing the largest loss of life from a natural disaster in Fiji's recent history. This paper explores the causes of disaster and the potential for recurrence. The disaster occurred because a rare event surprised hundreds of people—especially recently settled Indian farmers—occupying highly exposed floodplains in north‐west Viti Levu island. The likelihood of a flood disaster of such proportions occurring today has been diminished by changed settlement patterns and building materials; however, a trend towards re‐occupancy of floodplains, sometimes in fragile dwellings, is exposing new generations to flood risks. The contribution of this paper to the global hazards literature is set out in three sections: the ethnicity, gender and age of flood fatalities; the naturalness of disasters; and the merit of choice and constraint as explanations for patterns of vulnerability.     

应对恐怖爆炸袭击建筑物防护的研究现状综述

使用人体炸弹、邮件炸弹、箱包炸弹和汽车炸弹对目标进行恐怖爆炸袭击,是当前恐怖主义活动中最常采用的方式。大当量的箱包炸弹和汽车炸弹对建筑物的破坏作用尤为严重,一旦成功实施将会对建筑物造成严重破坏,并对建筑内人员的生命安全形成巨大威胁。本文针对性的介绍了爆炸荷载作用下建筑物的响应情况、不同防护距离和防护等级下建筑物的破坏情况和程度,总结了国内外对于建筑物承受爆炸荷载时的防护距离和荷载计算方面的规定,可供重要建筑物防恐怖爆炸袭击的防护技术、防护措施的研究参考。     

抓住机遇,建设新世纪专群结合的地震监测预报系统

建设专家为主、专群结合的地震监测预报体系是当前防震减灾的重点工作之一。通过回顾浙江省“九五”期间建设地震监测系统的实践 ,认为在当前科技水平和管理体制下 ,专群结合是建设好现代化地震监测预报系统的重要保证。省局必须正确处理好省级以下地震部门工作中的几个问题 ,发挥专业队伍在监测预报体系中的主导作用 ,才能做好新时期的地震监测预报工作。