Predicting pool safety habits and intentions of Australian parents and carers for their young children

Introduction: Children under five years are most at risk of experiencing fatal and nonfatal drowning. The highest proportion of drowning incidents occur in private swimming pools. Lapses in adult supervision and failures in pool barriers are leading contributory factors for pool drowning in this age group. Methods: We investigated the role of the theory of planned behavior social cognitions (attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control) as well as perceived barriers, planning, role construction, and anticipated regret on parents’ and carers’ intentions and habits toward two pool safety behaviors: restricting access and supervising children around private swimming pools. The study adopted a cross-sectional correlational design. Participants (N = 509) comprised Australian parents or caregivers with children aged under five years and access to a swimming pool at their residence. Participants completed a battery of self-report measures of social cognitive variables with respect to the swimming pool safety behaviors for their children. Results: Path analytic models controlling for past behavior indicated that subjective norm, planning, anticipated regret, and role construction were important predictors of habit, and subjective norm was a consistent predictor of intentions, for both behaviors. Planning predicted intentions in the restricting access sample, while attitudes, barriers, and role construction also predicted intentions in the supervising sample. Both models controlled for past behavior. Conclusion: Current findings indicate the importance of psychological factors for restricting access and supervising behaviors, with normative factors prominent for both reasoned (intentions) and non-conscious (habits) behavioral antecedents. It seems factors guiding restricting access, which likely require regular enactment of routine behaviors (e.g., ensuring gate is not propped open, pool fence meets standards), may be governed by more habitual than intentional processes.     

基于pH值和ORP的跳水池池水处理系统的自动控制

为改善跳水池水质的化学安全性和生物学稳定性,保障运动员、教练员以及工作人员身体健康,结合长春市泅渡馆跳水池,阐述了基于pH和ORP的池水处理自动控制系统,确定了自动控制系统的控制参数及其控制范围,为健康跳水池池水处理系统的自动控制系统的设计提供了参考。     

Modeling of variations in nitrogen trichloride concentration over time in swimming pool water

In water, chlorine reacts with nitrogen-containing compounds to produce disinfection by-products such as nitrogen trichloride which induces ocular and respiratory irritations in swimming pool workers. This study proposes a model to predict variations in NCl₃ concentration over time in a traditional indoor swimming pool as a function of its operating parameters and attendance. The model was developed taking into consideration the reaction mechanisms, thermodynamic equilibria, physico-chemical properties, and transfer mechanisms occurring at the pool's surface. This model was validated through a robust series of experiments over two days and two nights in a real swimming pool. The model was found to satisfactorily predict variations over time in the concentrations of the chemical species investigated, including nitrogen trichloride. The work presented constitutes a first step to extend the model at different swimming pools. This approach may also be used to study the influence of the main operating parameters and to evaluate the impact of setting up water treatment systems on nitrogen trichloride concentration.     

Social environment versus cycling competency predicting risk-taking in 11- to 13-year-old cyclists in The Netherlands

Abstract

Objectives: From age 12 onwards, cycling injuries begin rising in The Netherlands. A known contributing factor is younger children’s underdeveloped competency to deal with complex and hazardous traffic situations, and their exposure to such situations strongly increases after transitioning to secondary school. Little is known about intentional risk-taking as a contributing factor. In this developmental stage, children become increasingly vulnerable because of intentional risk-taking, affecting their safety and health. The incidence, predictors in the child’s social environment, and trends of such risks are systematically monitored; for instance, for alcohol use, smoking, and cyber bullying. Such monitors do not include risky road behavior. This exploratory field study examined the frequency of intentional risky cycling, its relationship with the perceived social environment, and relative to cycling competency measured as the ability to detect emerging hazards quickly.

Methods: Three hundred thirty-five students between 11 and 13 years of age (51% male) completed computerized tests of hazard perception skill and surveys on crashes, risk-taking, peer pressure, perceived risk-taking by parents or friends, and exposure to risky driving as passenger.

Results: Frequent risk-taking was associated with higher crash frequency. Stepwise regression confirmed that children who more often took risks on the road were also more sensitive to peer pressure, had more often been passengers of risky drivers, had parents and friends who exhibited risky behaviors in traffic more often, and perceived hazards as less dangerous but, in contrast to expectations, did not do worse on the detection of hazards. The predictors explained 28% of the variance in total risk-taking but varied from 6 to 20% depending on the specific risk-taking behavior concerned.

Conclusions: At least 20% of children sometimes or more often take risks in traffic. Children who feel peer pressure to behave in a risky manner, observe parents and friends behaving in a risky manner in traffic, and have been exposed as passengers to risky driving more often take risks in traffic themselves. These results provide support for including items on risky road behavior in health monitors and to design interventions that address the risk factors in the child’s perceived social environment.     

Investigation of pool spreading and vaporization behavior in medium-scale LNG tests

A failure of a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tanker can occur due to collision or rupture in loading/unloading lines resulting in spillage of LNG on water. Upon release, a spreading liquid can form a pool with rapid vaporization leading to the formation of a flammable vapor cloud. Safety analysis for the protection of public and property involves the determination of consequences of such accidental releases. To address this complex pool spreading and vaporization phenomenon of LNG, an investigation is performed based on the experimental tests that were conducted by the Mary Kay O'Connor Process Safety Center (MKOPSC) in 2007. The 2007 tests are a part of medium-scale experiments carried out at the Brayton Fire Training Field (BFTF), College Station. The dataset represents a semi-continuous spill on water, where LNG is released on a confined area of water for a specified duration of time. The pool spreading and vaporization behavior are validated using empirical models, which involved determination of pool spreading parameters and vaporization rates with respect to time. Knowledge of the pool diameter, pool height and spreading rate are found to be important in calculating the vaporization rates of the liquid pool. The paper also presents a method to determine the vaporization mass flux of LNG using water temperature data that is recorded in the experiment. The vaporization rates are observed to be high initially and tend to decrease once the pool stopped spreading. The results of the analysis indicated that a vaporization mass flux that is varying with time is required for accurate determination of the vaporization rate. Based on the data analysis, sources of uncertainties in the experimental data were identified to arise from ice formation and vapor blocking.     

基于公众参与行为的化工企业监管治理演化博弈分析

化工生产安全事故频发对社会生活和公共安全造成严重影响。针对化工企业监管治理问题,将公众参与行为纳入到监管过程,基于演化博弈理论构建地方政府、化工企业、公众三方博弈策略收益矩阵,对比分析各博弈主体行为策略的演化稳定均衡。研究结果表明:对于化工企业,降低企业安全投入成本、加大政府处罚力度和提高政府严格监管的概率,将促使化工企业更倾向于选择安全投入策略;对于地方政府,降低政府的监管成本、增大上级政府的问责和对疏忽安全投入企业的罚款力度,将有助于地方政府最终选择严格监管策略;对于公众,降低监督举报的成本和提高对公众监督举报行为的奖励,将有利于公众积极参与监督,实现对化工企业的有效监管治理。     

Unintentional non-traffic injury and fatal events: Threats to children in and around vehicles

Objective: There have been substantial reductions in motor vehicle crash–related child fatalities due to advances in legislation, public safety campaigns, and engineering. Less is known about non-traffic injuries and fatalities to children in and around motor vehicles. The objective of this study was to describe the frequency of various non-traffic incidents, injuries, and fatalities to children using a unique surveillance system and database.

Methods: Instances of non-traffic injuries and fatalities in the United States to children 0–14 years were tracked from January 1990 to December 2014 using a compilation of sources including media reports, individual accounts from families of affected children, medical examiner reports, police reports, child death review teams, coroner reports, medical professionals, legal professionals, and other various modes of publication.

Results: Over the 25-year period, there were at least 11,759 events resulting in 3,396 deaths. The median age of the affected child was 3.7 years. The incident types included 3,115 children unattended in hot vehicles resulting in 729 deaths, 2,251 backovers resulting in 1,232 deaths, 1,439 frontovers resulting in 692 deaths, 777 vehicles knocked into motion resulting in 227 deaths, 415 underage drivers resulting in 203 deaths, 172 power window incidents resulting in 61 deaths, 134 falls resulting in 54 deaths, 79 fires resulting in 41 deaths, and 3,377 other incidents resulting in 157 deaths.

Conclusions: Non-traffic injuries and fatalities present an important threat to the safety and lives of very young children. Future efforts should consider complementary surveillance mechanisms to systematically and comprehensively capture all non-traffic incidents. Continued education, engineering modifications, advocacy, and legislation can help continue to prevent these incidents and must be incorporated in overall child vehicle safety initiatives.     

Antecedents of injury among youth in agricultural settings: a longitudinal examination of safety consciousness,dangerous risk taking,and safety knowledge

PROBLEM: Injuries are the leading cause of death for adolescents in the United States. METHODS: This study longitudinally examined three psychological mediators of injury among 3,081 youths in agricultural settings: (a) safety consciousness, (b) dangerous risk taking, and (c) safety knowledge. These variables are examined within a nomological network of contextual variables. RESULTS: Cross-sectional results revealed that safety consciousness and dangerous risk taking were the strongest predictors of reported injury at Time 1 and Time 2. Safety knowledge had an unexpected negative association with injury, albeit weak. As predicted, participating in safety activities was positively associated with safety consciousness, and time spent working was strongly associated with safety knowledge. Furthermore, self-esteem had both positive and negative safety outcomes, suggesting a more complex functioning. Males exhibited fewer safety cognitions than females as predicted. Longitudinal data also revealed that injury at Time 1 and dangerous risk taking were the strongest predictors of Time 2 injury. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Results from this study emphasize the importance of assessing dangerous risk-taking perceptions when attempting to predict future injuries.     

The role of personality characteristics in young adult driving

BACKGROUND: Motor vehicle injury is the major cause of mortality among young adults. Information about the individual characteristics of those who drive dangerously could enhance traffic safety programs. The goal of this research was to examine the association between various personality-related characteristics and risky driving behaviors. METHODS: Young adults in Michigan, USA (n = 5,362) were surveyed by telephone regarding several personality factors (risk-taking, hostility, aggression, tolerance of deviance, achievement expectations) and driving behaviors (competitive driving, risk-taking driving, high-risk driving, aggressive driving, and drink/driving). Michigan driver records were obtained to examine offenses, serious offenses, driving offense points, crashes and serious crashes in the three pre-interview years. Multivariate regression analyses, adjusting for age, race, and marital status were conducted separately by sex to identify personality factors related to driving. RESULTS: For men and women, greater risk-taking propensity, physical/verbal hostility, aggression, and tolerance of deviance were significant predictors of a competitive attitude toward driving, risk-taking driving, high-risk driving, driving aggression, and drink/driving. Greater risk-taking propensity, physical/verbal hostility, aggression, and to a small degree, expectations for achievement predicted higher numbers of offenses, serious offenses, and points. CONCLUSION: Traffic safety policies and programs could be enhanced through recognition of the role personality factors play in driving behavior and the incorporation of this knowledge into the design and implementation of interventions that modify the behaviors associated with them.     

北京核与辐射恐怖事件风险分析

采用风险分类-要素分析-风险排序的思路,对北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险进行分析。根据国际上1998—2006年该类恐怖事件的实例,从事件所涉及的材料、场所角度将核与辐射恐怖事件分为6大类。结合北京市的实际情况进行涉核恐怖事件的要素分析,将北京市各类场所划分为4类敏感区并与5类涉核恐怖事件结合起来,得到北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险构成图。通过风险分析,笔者认为北京市发生核与辐射恐怖事件风险最大的场所为核研究机构,最容易发生的核与辐射恐怖事件类型为涉及放射源的恐怖事件,结合分析结果对从阻止、探测、响应3个层次上提出了奥运核安保工作的反核恐工作建议。     

On models of spreading pools

The spread of liquid pools floating on water is commonly modelled by the assumption of a constant (densimetric) Froude number at the front. This can be understood in terms of a balance between the pressure difference across the front of the spreading pool, and the resistance at the front from having to push displaced water out of the way. Some early models of pools spreading on land also assumed constant Froude number, but in this case there is absolutely no credible justification for such an assumption. This was highlighted by Webber and Jones (1987) who noted that resistance will come from friction with the ground under the whole base of the pool, resulting in a very different spreading law. Nevertheless, the assumption of constant Froude number spreading of pools on land continues in some circles to this day, and a recent paper by Raj (2011) even goes as far as to assert that Webber and Jones (1987) assumed the spreading law, which in actual fact they were at pains to debunk. This paper is intended to set the record straight, with a detailed discussion of the physical phenomena controlling the way pools spread on land.     

Impact of error self-perception of aerobic capacity in the safety and efficacy of the lifeguards

Introduction. The strong physical demands that are required of lifeguards during rescues also require an accurate self-perception of one's fitness level to be able to regulate the intensity of effort. Objectives. The aim of this study was to determine the real aerobic capacity (RAC) and to compare it with two self-reported measurements: subjective appraisal of aerobic capacity (SAAC) and appraisal of physical exercise (APE). Methods. Fifty-two professional lifeguards were included in the study. For an objective assessment of RAC, the lifeguards’ maximum oxygen uptake (V_O2max) values were measured during treadmill stress tests. A fitness assessment questionnaire was used to obtain the SAAC and APE values. Results. We found a statistically significant association between the APE and RAC variables in the contingency analysis (p?V_O2max value below 43 ml kg^?1?min^?1 considered their aerobic capacity to be high or very high. Conclusion. This self-perception error of true aerobic capacity could lead to premature fatigue during a rescue, endangering both the lifeguard's life and the life of the victim. These data may help lifeguards and beach managers to become aware of the need to know lifeguards’ true physical conditions through testing and structured training programs.     

Severity of passenger injuries on public buses: A comparative analysis of collision injuries and non-collision injuries

Introduction: Although public buses have been demonstrated as a relatively safe mode of transport, the number of injuries to public bus passengers is far from negligible. Existing studies of public bus safety have focused primarily on injuries caused by collisions. Surprisingly, limited effort has been devoted to identifying factors that increase the severity of passenger injuries in non-collision incidents. Method: Our study therefore investigated the injury risk of public bus passengers involved in collision incidents and non-collision incidents comparatively, based on a police-reported dataset of 17,383 passengers injured on franchised public buses over a 10-year period in Hong Kong. A random parameters logistic model was established to estimate the likelihood of fatal and severe injuries to passengers as a function of various factors. Results: Our results indicated substantial inconsistences in the effects of risk factors between models of non-collision injuries and collision injuries. The severity of passenger injuries tended to increase significantly when non-collision incidents occurred due to excessive speed of bus drivers, on double-decker buses, in less urbanized areas, in winter, in heavy rains, during daytime, and at night without street lighting. Elderly female passengers were also found more likely to be fatally or severely injured in non-collision incidents if they lost their balance while boarding, alighting from, or standing on a bus. In comparison, the following factors were associated with a greater likelihood of fatal or severe injuries in collision incidents: elderly female passengers, standing passengers who lost balance, buses out of driver control, double-decker buses, collisions with vehicles or objects, and less urbanized areas. Practical Applications: Based on our comparative analysis, more targeted countermeasures, namely “4E” (engineering, enforcement, emergency, and education) and “3A” (awareness, appreciation, and assistance), were recommended to mitigate collision injuries and non-collision injuries to public bus passengers, respectively.     

A neglected risky behavior among children and adolescents: underage driving and injury in New South Wales,Australia

PROBLEM: Among different causes of injury, roads and traffic-related incidents contributed most to all child deaths. The majority of childhood and adolescent traffic-related deaths are young people killed as pedestrians or bicyclists. Underage driving is a particular risky behavior much neglected. This study aimed to describe some characteristics related to motor-vehicle crashes and crash-related injury in which the vehicle was driven by a young person who was under the legal age of obtaining a learner license in New South Wales, Australia. METHODS: Data used in this study were made available from the Roads and Traffic Authority of NSW for the period between 1996 and 2000. Crash information was collected and reported by NSW police at the scene of these motor-vehicle crash incidents. RESULTS: There were 526 crashes involving an underage driver recorded within the study period. The majority (79.5%) of these underage drivers were males with slightly more than half (58.0%) aged 15 years, and nearly 30% aged 14 years. Among these, 83.6% involved the driver of the vehicle being killed or injured. Among the injured or killed passengers, 128 (73.6%) were nonadult passengers under the age of 18 years. Seventy of these crashes occurred while the car was in pursuit by police. The adjusted relative risk of injury to at least one occupant in the vehicle should a crash occur for female underage drivers was two times (OR=2.01, 95% CI=1.27-3.20) as compared to male underage drivers. DISCUSSION: Underage driving poses a serious problem in terms of crash outcomes. Experimental driving and late-night outings for adolescents should be discouraged. Well-designed studies are required to further investigate the relationship between underage driving and on road risk-taking behavior among licensed adolescents. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Data obtained from this study indicate that adults, particularly parents, should discourage underage adolescents from experimenting driving and should actively cultivate a positive attitude toward driving.     

A study on rescuer drowning and multiple drowning incidents

IntroductionDrowning is a leading cause of injury related death in many countries, including Turkey, where this study originates. The aim of the study is to define and examine “rescuer” drowning and Multiple Drowning Incidents (MDIs), and suggest preventative measures against MDIs.MethodThe event of a person drowning can be complicated if an untrained person attempts to rescue the Primary Drowning Victim (PDV). This can result in the death of the “rescuer” as well as the PDV, which then becomes an MDI. This study categorizes these MDI incidents by examining online news media accounts in Turkey from 2005 through 2008.ResultsIn this 4-year period, 88 “rescuer” drowning incidents occurred in which 114 “rescuers” and 60 PDVs died from drowning in MDIs; 114 drowned “rescuers” rescued 47 PDVs before they died from drowning. Most of the “rescuers” were male and 42.1% of them were under the age of 18. Most of the drowning incidents (68.5%) occurred in fresh water (lakes/dams/water holes and rivers/creeks/streams).ConclusionIn this study, risk factors for drowning deaths include gender and entering in unguarded open water. An increased awareness of such risks as well as promotion of both swimming and rescue skills in water could help reduce MDIs. Parents who live close to fresh water sources with boys under the age of 18 years should be more aware of drowning risk because of their higher rates of deaths from drowning.Impact on IndustryThe results of this study give the chance to policy makers and all other related people or organizations to see the whole picture of deaths by drowning and the results can be used to build up preventative strategies as swimming teaching and life guard education.     

The relation of non-culpable traffic incidents to bus drivers' celeration behavior

PROBLEM: The driver celeration behavior theory predicts that celerations are associated with incidents for which the driver has some responsibility in causing, but not other incidents. METHOD: The hypothesis was tested in 25 samples of repeated measurements of bus drivers' celeration behavior against their incidents for two years. RESULTS: The results confirmed the prediction; in 18 samples, the correlation for culpable incidents only was higher than for all incidents, despite the higher means of the latter. Non-culpable incidents had correlations close to zero with celeration. DISCUSSION: It was pointed out that most individual crash prediction studies have not made this differentiation, and thus probably yielded underestimates of the associations sought, although the effect is not strong, due to non-culpable accident involvements being few (less than a third of the total). The methods for correct identification of culpable incident involvements were discussed.     

Modeling the effects of production pressure on safety performance in construction projects using system dynamics

Introduction: Construction incidents occur due to system failures, not due to a single factor such as unsafe behavior or condition. Therefore, construction safety should be investigated using a systematic view capable of illustrating the complex nature of incidents. Construction projects are also often behind their planned schedule and suffer from various pressures caused by contractual deadlines or clients. Previous studies demonstrated that such pressures negatively affect safety performance; however, the process of how production pressure influences safety performance is not fully investigated. Method: The present research aimed to understand the feedback mechanism of how production pressure interactively affects safety performance and safety-related managerial components in a construction project. Ground theory method (GTM) is used to create a conceptual causal loop diagram that shows the relationship between incident rate and other variables such as labor hour, actual and planned progress, safety climate, rework, and safety training. Moreover, a power plant construction project was used as a case study to practically investigate the conceptual model; a case study is employed to build a System Dynamics (SD) model. The simulation model was then validated using behavior reproduction and sensitivity analysis. Results: The results of the inequality statistics show that the simulation model can be used to forecast trends in the incident rate.     

Are dispersion models suitable for simulating small gaseous chlorine releases?

Dispersion models are mostly validated on the basis of historical dispersion experiments. The latter imply large quantities of hazardous products (flammable or toxic gases), and are dedicated to study the dispersion of the resulting clouds on great distances from the source to reach a better knowledge of the different phases of gas dispersion (slumping, creeping, passive dispersion…).However, dispersion models have hardly been validated on small releases and therefore require more validation on small plumes of dangerous gases. Indeed, what is their reliability in case of accidents involving small amounts (e.g., chlorine leakages at swimming pools’ installations), and for small distances downwind the gas source? This information is of prime interest in so far as small releases are more likely to occur than larger ones.This paper reports on chlorine small-scale dispersion experiments and deals with the comparison between experimental data of ground level concentrations in the plume and predicted concentrations obtained from several dispersion models.     

Risky scenario identification in a risk perception scale for construction workers in Thailand

Introduction: Construction sites exhibit unique hazardous characteristics. Hence, investigating the causes of fatal and nonfatal accidents is extremely important to promote safety on construction sites. Literature shows a risk perception (RP) scale for construction workers; to expand the existing research, this study aims to identify risky scenarios for assessing the RP of Thai construction workers, with the goal of reducing workplace incidents. Method: The scale development process consists of four phases. Item development was also performed, followed by factor analysis. Reliability and validity assessments were finalized in the process. A survey of 500 construction workers in Thailand was conducted to investigate risky scenarios. Through the process, a total of 17 items remained in the final RP scale, and the reliability and validity of these items were confirmed. Results: The RP scale was affirmed to have four dimensions (probability, severity, worry, and unsafe). These dimensions of workers’ RP were negatively correlated with the workers’ risk-taking behaviors. This study further showed that participants with a high level of affective RP were more likely to have a high level of cognitive RP. Hence, those with a high level of RP tended to be involved in fewer risk-taking behaviors. Practical Applications: The final version of the scale was reliable and valid in determining the RP and risk-taking behaviors of construction workers in Thailand.     

The prevention of young driver's DWI (driving while intoxicated) and RWDI (riding with a driver under influence) in Europe: a social-sequential model

Inspired by the "critical incident technique" of McKnight et al. (1995) who analyzed 12,000 drivers' decisions leading to (or not to) DWI, and identified the influence of social, motivational, and economic factors, we have developed a social-sequential model of young drivers' DWI (driving while intoxicated) and RWDI (riding with a driver under influence) prevention. DWI or RWDI may be analyzed as a four-stage process: (1) the decision to drink and to associate leisure activities with drinking; (2) the management of alcohol consumption during the evening; (3) the decision to drive after drinking; and (4) the behavioral adaptation, once the decision to drive is taken (disinhibition of risk-taking or risk compensation). At each of these four stages, preventive action can reflect the intervention of two types of actors: (1) formal social control of behavior is influenced by professionals involved in accident prevention, and (2) informal social control of behavior is influenced by the proximal environment of the subject.