国际气候变化科学和评估对中国应对气候变化的启示

科学研究和评估工作推动了国际应对气候变化进程,并加大了各国行动力度。更多的科学证据表明人类活动是造成全球气候变暖的主要原因;气候变化影响、适应和脆弱性研究范围不断扩展和深化,区域甚至次国家级层面的问题受到高度关注;2℃温控目标的实现已然成为共识,政策协调与集成及相关政策在不同领域的协同作用成为研究的热点。未来中国应对气候变化需要在四个方面进一步开展研究和采取行动:1加强不同学科和领域的研究工作,围绕与实现温升控制1.5℃、土地利用、海洋以及城市相关问题开展专题研究。2加强国内绿色低碳转型和国际谈判的战略研究。3构建气候服务体系,以灾害风险管理为抓手,提升气候变化适应水平。4通过构建能源互联网实现能源变革,加快推进国内能源革命和经济发展的低碳转型。     

Social participation and climate change

Social participation has been broadly analysed by comparing case studies of different types of socio-economic developments in Brazil and the United Kingdom (UK). A key objective has been to consider how effective social participation has been in incorporating society’s points of view in the decision making process. In most cases, it would appear that very little can be done by stakeholders to change big decisions on development policies that support public and private development because in reality social participation often only provides an opportunity for discussion and agreement on specific issues regarding how development will be undertaken and how stakeholders will be affected. Although Brazil and the United Kingdom have socio-economic and cultural differences, it is necessary to emphasize that education, self-organization and knowledge of civil rights are crucial for an effective social participation process. As climate change is an important topic for present and future generations and that some of the development activities analysed in this study will emit greenhouse gases, this study also attempts to investigate if climate change mitigation strategies have been integrated into the social participation process. Investigation shows that there is little evidence that climate change mitigation actions involving stakeholders have been integrated into development strategies or have been part of social participation schemes in the case studies analysed. Having said that, the study also describes positive examples of climate change mitigation actions in different parts of the world that involve local people in ‘carbon-neutral’ or ‘social-carbon’ projects and proposes the creation of a carbon-neutral committee that would be responsible for coordinating climate change mitigation measures within development proposals such as the ones analysed in this study.     

Land use/land cover change and statistical modelling of cultivated land change drivers in Nigeria

Regional Environmental Change - In recent decades, human activities have significantly influenced land use/land cover. Identifying pattern changes in regional land use/land cover and their drivers...     

Climate change risks in Sahelian Africa

Analyses of Sahel regional and country-specific rainfall and temperature time series derived from a fixed subset of stations show the well-documented large-scale decreasing trend in rainfall that occurred between 1970 and 2000 and also, an increasing trend in summertime maximum and wintertime minimum temperatures. The evolution of summertime mean maximum temperature is almost opposite to that of rainfall, and a significant correlation is observed between the evolution of this quantity and millet yields, in comparison with correlation with summertime rainfall. It appears that quantifying future vulnerability of the Sahel zone to climate change is rather difficult because climate models have not in general shown yet a satisfactory reproduction of the observed climate variability of this area.     

Policy entrepreneurs and strategies for change

Regional Environmental Change - Despite the fact that we currently witness an increasing interest in the study of the role of agency in policy dynamics, it remains in many respects a puzzle how...     

An in-depth view of climate change:addressing climate change while making a transition on the development mode

While fossil fuels greatly contribute to human society,they pose great challenges to natural resources,the environment,and climate change.Developed countries,like the United States,formulated strategic measures to ensure their sustainable development and leading positions in the world.These measures include new green policies,development of shale gas,revitalization of nuclear power,energy independence,reindustrialization,and new low-carbon development based on a combination of Internet technology and renewable energy.Developing countries are also trying to introduce balanced strategies of poverty alleviation and sustainable development.Globally,industrial civilization is being transformed to ecological civilization and green,low-carbon development is a global trend.Addressing climate change provides new strategic factors to further this development.China should take substantial actions to realize sustainable development in a new road:China is in the critical stage of changing its development mode,so it is vital to choose an appropriate development path.This extensive development comes at the high price of consuming too much resources and scarring the environment.Mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing climate change can help the transition of development.Based on the analysis of the development data of developed countries,the author introduces the concept of"two-type developed countries"with an understanding that not all developed countries must take the same development mode.He also holds the view that China should achieve modernization in a more energy-saving and more carbon-efficient manner compared with that of two-type developed countries.An analysis of"two competitions"that China is facing shows that changing the developing mode is urgent and China should grasp this opportunity in the next five to ten years,which is a key period for this transition.This paper discusses the low-carbon development goals and the three-step process.Low-carbon development does not necessarily restrict economic development.It,however,can expedite the transition of the development mode and this is a low-carbon and green development path.Transition of the development mode includes implementation of China’s green and low-carbon energy strategies,low-carbon society construction,development of agriculture and forestry,garbage sorting and utilization,innovation of urbanization,etc.Improvement of national infrastructure construction includes water safety,environment and climate monitoring system,intelligent energy web,basic database,etc.Addressing climate change can significantly improve the nation’s basic research level.In summary,it mitigates backward production capability,extensive development,and environmental damage while promoting technological advancement,scientific development,and ecological civilization.     

Atmospheric change: health/ecological linkages

Human health studies emphasize the link between the human body and the immediate influences upon it. Ecosystem health studies (defined by David Rapport et al., this volume) has, as its primary objective, the relationships and system characteristics of viable ecosystems. As a practical application, ecosystem health studies describe the mechanisms and assesses the potential to threaten or enhance human health.     

Resources and international climate change policy gridlock

Few other policy zones are as complex as the issue of climate change.If the more pessimistic projections of climate change doom are correct,then the failure to address the issue is likely to be catastrophic and irreversible.The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted the potential extinction of many species and that the existence of small-island and other vulnerable countries will be threatened if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue.Climate change is a transboundary problem and requires unprecedented levels of cooperation between states and serious and sustained responses from major emitters.However,the growing demand and consumption of natural resources for continued energy security and cornucopian economic growth have undermined the outcomes of international climate change negotiations.It is argued here that there is a strong connection between the major emitters’positions at United Nations’climate talks,their possessions,dependence and consumption of natural resources,and the continued undermining of international climate change policy for unsustainable growth.This paper assesses the resource politics of the US,China,India,Canada,Russia,and Saudi Arabia and their positions at climate talks to show the link between lack of climate change policy progress and the positions of these main players.     

Resources and international climate change policy gridlock

Few other policy zones are as complex as the issue of climate change. If the more pessimistic projections of climate change doom are correct, then the failure to address the issue is likely to be catastrophic and irreversible. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted the potential extinction of many species and that the existence of small-island and other vulnerable countries will be threatened if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. Climate change is a transboundary problem and requires unprecedented levels of cooperation between states and serious and sustained responses from major emitters. However, the growing demand and consumption of natural resources for continued energy security and cornucopian economic growth have undermined the outcomes of international climate change negotiations. It is argued here that there is a strong connection between the major emitters’ positions at United Nations’ climate talks, their possessions, dependence and consumption of natural resources, and the continued undermining of international climate change policy for unsustainable growth. This paper assesses the resource politics of the US, China, India, Canada, Russia, and Saudi Arabia and their positions at climate talks to show the link between lack of climate change policy progress and the positions of these main players.     

土地流转与农民收入变化研究

土地流转作为我国农村土地制度改革的重点受到了广泛的关注,但土地流转能否显著增加农民收入,达到改善农村内部收入差距的目的,现有研究并未得到一致结论。本文在文献回顾和总结的基础上,依据中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,运用倾向值匹配(PSM)方法和基于回归的夏普里值分解(Shapley Value)方法,从收入水平和收入差距两个维度实证分析土地流转对农民收入的影响。研究结果表明:(1)参与土地流转能够显著提高农户家庭收入水平。土地流转使转入户家庭人均总收入和农业收入显著提高18.18%和72.46%,并且大规模转入的农户人均总收入的增加程度显著高于小规模转入农户,说明土地流转存在规模效应。土地流转对转出户的收入水平没有显著影响,可能的原因一方面由于土地流转市场发育不完善,没有显化租金;另一方面劳动力转移先于土地流转,使土地流转对农户家庭劳动力的释放作用不显著。(2)土地流转对农村内部收入差距的贡献度为4.19%,排名第五,表明土地流转不是造成农村内部收入差距拉大的主要原因。人力资本和村庄特征对农村内部收入差距影响较大。根据研究结论提出三点政策建议:第一,通过完善农地流转市场,稳定土地租金水平,使转出户获得合理的租金收入;第二,促进农地适度规模经营,提高转入户农业经营收入,缩小农户与非农经营户之间的收入差距;第三,提高农户就业竞争力,促进劳动力转移,增加转出户非农务工收入。     

Climate change adaptation in European river basins

This paper contains an assessment and standardized comparative analysis of the current water management regimes in four case-studies in three European river basins: the Hungarian part of the Upper Tisza, the Ukrainian part of the Upper Tisza (also called Zacarpathian Tisza), Alentejo Region (including the Alqueva Reservoir) in the Lower Guadiana in Portugal, and Rivierenland in the Netherlands. The analysis comprises several regime elements considered to be important in adaptive and integrated water management: agency, awareness raising and education, type of governance and cooperation structures, information management and—exchange, policy development and—implementation, risk management, and finances and cost recovery. This comparative analysis has an explorative character intended to identify general patterns in adaptive and integrated water management and to determine its role in coping with the impacts of climate change on floods and droughts. The results show that there is a strong interdependence of the elements within a water management regime, and as such this interdependence is a stabilizing factor in current management regimes. For example, this research provides evidence that a lack of joint/participative knowledge is an important obstacle for cooperation, or vice versa. We argue that there is a two-way relationship between information management and collaboration. Moreover, this research suggests that bottom-up governance is not a straightforward solution to water management problems in large-scale, complex, multiple-use systems, such as river basins. Instead, all the regimes being analyzed are in a process of finding a balance between bottom-up and top–down governance. Finally, this research shows that in a basin where one type of extreme is dominant—like droughts in the Alentejo (Portugal) and floods in Rivierenland (Netherlands)—the potential impacts of other extremes are somehow ignored or not perceived with the urgency they might deserve.     

Assessing social vulnerability to climate change in Samoa

Climate change severely impacts on the natural and socio-economic systems of the Pacific Islands. Samoa, a small insular state of the region, is characterized by widespread awareness of climate change reflected by its leading international role. This also makes Samoa a potentially exemplary reference for the Pacific Islands. Against this backdrop, the overall aim of this article is to investigate the notion of social vulnerability and measure its dimensions in Samoa through a specific index: the Samoa Social Vulnerability Index (SSVI). The SSVI may yield better understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of social vulnerability, as well as information for fostering adaptation strategies in Samoa and in the Pacific Islands. In particular, the article first outlines the major vulnerabilities to climate change in Samoa and then analyses the composite notion of social vulnerability. On this basis, the article methodologically specifies, designs and constructs the SSVI. Afterwards, it uses such index for measuring the dimensions of social vulnerability in Samoa’s districts. Finally, some considerations are made concerning the policy relevance of the SSVI and its potential regional role.     

Pros and cons of climate change in China

Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems, e.g. the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation, whereas in the Tibetan Plateau, the vegetation productivity increased, owing to the improved thermal resource. Climate change led to reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff. The public needs for energy were changed because of climate change, e.g. the shorter heating period in winter. Climate change profoundly influenced human health, pathophoresis and major projects by increasing extreme events, including frequency and magnitude, and causing more serious water shortage. Under the background of climate change, although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period, more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity. Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industries through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources, but also climate change mitigation measures, such as carbon tax, tariff and trading, had extensive and profound influences on the socioeconomic system. Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences. The impact had its pros and cons, while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages. Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change, we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change. First, scientifically dealing with climate change will need to seek advantages while avoiding the disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve the orderly adaptation to climate change, which is characterized with “Overall best, long-term benefit.” Second, quantitative adaptation should be given more attention, e.g. proposing operational schemes and predictable goals and using uncertainty analysis on adaptation measures. Third, more active coping strategy should be adopted to enhance China’s future comprehensive competitiveness. The strategies include but are not limited to gradually adjusting the industrial structure, intensifying the research and development (R&D) of emission reduction technology and actively responding to the influence of carbon tax, tariff and trading on socioeconomic development in China.