Composite indicators for famine early warning systems

Traditional famine early warning systems use a host of indicators to predict food crisis situations, from rainfall and increased rate of marketing of household durables to the behavior of birds and animals. Although many of these indicators are valid in general, limited understanding of the sensitivity and specificity of the distress signals makes food crisis prediction a highly subjective exercise. In order to make the system more effective and credible, we need to identify a limited number of 'composite' indicators, which naturally summarize most relevant food-related information contained in the specific predictors of food crisis. Considering the chronology of the food production and consumption chain, three composite indicators specific to three different stages of the chain have been identified. The satellite data based Normalized Deviation of Vegetative Index (NDVI), prices of major food grains, and malnutrition rates are found to be correlated not only with the quality and quantity of inputs of this process but also with the final outcome. Both NDVI and price data are widely used as important predictors of food crisis by famine warning systems. What we have demonstrated is that improved sensitivity of the indicators is likely to be due to their inherent capability of summarizing information from various specific measures. Child malnutrition rates also summarize inputs and outputs of the food consumption process very effectively, and therefore should be able to predict community level food crisis in an efficient manner. The empirical results confirm this conjecture by showing that malnutrition rates can predict food crisis probability three months into the future with a high degree of specificity. The use of 'composite' indicators not only simplifies the problem of aggregation, but is also likely to yield forecasts that are highly specific and sensitive.     

Foodgrain disposals as early warning famine signals: A case from Burkina Faso*

Recent research suggests that monitoring key events in social, economic, cultural and political systems may provide more timely, frequent, and reliable warnings of impending famine than monitoring physical processes alone. But empirical data on early warning distress signals in these arenas are slim. Based on anthropological investigations in a southern Volta Noire community of Burkina Faso (formerly Upper Volta) during the drought of 1983–1984, this paper outlines a variety of possible early warning signals in disposal systems for staple foodgrains - the nutritional “bottom line” for farmers and herders in the West African savannah. Pre-famine distress signals in five broad categories are discussed: changes in marketing patterns, non-market exchanges, dietary practices, utilization of agricultural and pastoral labour, and ideological and sociopolitical behaviours. Data consist of both quantitative and qualitative comparisons of cereal disposals in these categories between 1983 and preceding years.     

The underutilization of street markets as a source of food security indicators in famine early warning systems: a case study of Ethiopia

Famine Early Warning Systems (EWS) are reliant on data aggregated from multiple sources. Consequently, they are often insensitive to localized changes in food security status, leading to delayed response or interventions. While price and infrastructural data are often gathered, this case study suggests that local street markets and vendor knowledge are underutilized. Few efforts have been made to monitor systematically the street markets as an indicator of local stressors. Findings from Ethiopia show that knowledge generated by expanding food security indicators in this sector can be used in combination with EWS to facilitate earlier intervention in, or to monitor more effectively, on-going humanitarian crises. Indicators developed from this study are accurate, cost effective, and sensitive to local climatic and food stressors.     

Operational value of anthropometric surveillance in famine early warning and relief: wollo region, ethiopia, 1987-88

In this article I examine the operational implications of the findings reported in 'Entitlements, Coping Mechanisms and Indicators of Access to Food: Wollo Region, Ethiopia, 1987–88' (Kelly, 1992). The usefulness of anthropometric and other indicators for early warning and relief planning in Wollo is assessed by comparing the findings of Save the Children Fund's nutritional surveillance programme with those of the Early Warning and Planning Service of the Ethiopian government's Relief and Rehabilitation Commission. Case studies are used to illustrate the value of anthropometric and other indicators for targeting relief food and monitoring its effects. The costs of monitoring various indicators are then considered, and the cost of the Save the Children Fund programme is compared with that of other programmes. It is argued that in Wollo, anthropometric surveillance is a cost-effective means of improving early warning, planning, targeting and monitoring.     

基于网络的突发性灾害预警及救灾系统——以雪灾为例

自然灾害是不可避免的,为减少自然灾害给人类带来的损失,以ArcIMS为平台,引入模糊神经网络构建了雪灾预测模型,建立了基于网络的突发性灾害联动预警及救灾系统.系统可以自动/半自动地进行不同灾害等级的分类,发出灾害预警警报,并在此基础上结合气象对灾害诱发条件的预报,提出预防的工程技术措施,方便具有不同用户权限的用户使用.     

Famine early warning systems and the use of socio-economic data

Famine early warning systems using socio-economic data suffer from several problems. One is that they cannot, and do not attempt to, distinguish between qualitatively different kinds of famine. The second is that they cannot predict these either accurately or early enough. This is because all the socio-economic indicators produce both false positives and false negatives, the indicators themselves are "late" and because interpretation of the data is complex and time-consuming. The third problem is that within the context of a famine that is occurring, these indicators cannot predict excess mortality. The argument is illustrated with examples from the 1984–5 famine in Darfur, Sudan.     

地震预警技术综述

地震预警技术是为了适应减轻地震灾害的要求而产生的，其技术原理是利用电磁波与地震波的速度差，以及地震P波与S波的速度差来实现地震发生后的及时预警。论述了目前国内外应用地震预警技术、配置地震预警系统的情况，对应用该技术所产生的效益作了介绍，对其进一步的发展前景进行了展望。     

一次暴雨天气的诊断分析与预警

2007年9月29日08时至30 日 08时,长治市出现了历史上罕见的暴雨和大暴雨天气,部分县、市遭受重灾.针对暴雨的成因,从500hPa天气环流背景、700hPa急流影响系统和物理量场的主要参量(相对湿度场、K指数场、散度场)以及FY-2C红外卫星云图的中尺度对流辐合体的演变,进行了综合诊断分析,给出了暴雨预报着眼点.暴雨前及时发布了蓝色预警信号和暴雨地质灾害重要天气警报,为防汛工作的及早安排部署提供了准确的重大决策气象服务.     

The role of the individual administrator in famine relief: Three case studies

A series of hypotheses on the role of the individual administrator in famine relief are proposed and three are examined with respect to case studies of famines in India (1896 and 1906–1907), Uganda (1908) and Lombok (1940). While the evidence is not conclusive, the focus upon the role of the individual administrator offers additional insights into the compexities of official response to famines.     

Archetypes of famine and response

Famines have long been characterised by rapidly shifting dynamics: sudden price spirals, sharp increases in mortality, the media frenzy that often accompanies such spikes, the swift scaling up of aid flows, and a subsequent decline in interest. In arguing that these aspects of famine have been largely ignored in recent years due to attention to the famine process', this paper attempts to make these dynamics more explicit by applying systems thinking. It uses standard archetypes of systems thinking to explain six situations—watch, price spiral, aid magnet, media frenzy, overshoot, and peaks—that are present in many famine contexts. It illustrates their application with examples from crises in Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, and Sudan. The paper contends that the systems approach offers a tool for analysing the larger patterns in famines and for pinpointing the most appropriate responses to them, based on an awareness of the dynamics of the crises.     

Measuring populations' vulnerabilities for famine and food security interventions: the case of Ethiopia's Chronic Vulnerability Index

The concept of vulnerability has become an important part of food security analyses since the 1980s. It is seen as having two sides: exposure to external hazards; and an inability to cope with those shocks, attributed to social, political, and economic factors. Numerous attempts have been made to construct models to determine levels of vulnerability among populations. This paper analyses one such attempt, the Chronic Vulnerability Index (CVI), developed to measure levels of vulnerability to food insecurity in Ethiopia. The example of the CVI reveals many of the difficulties associated with producing a basic model of vulnerability that can be used in disaster mitigation. Ultimately, the CVI assumes that vulnerability is a linear, additive phenomenon with discrete causes and effects and fails to capture interactions between hazards and the human systems that produce and complicate them. The paper concludes with a discussion of alternatives to the CVI.     

哈尔滨市地质灾害气象诱因分析及监测预警

通过对哈尔滨市地质灾害发生历史规律的分析,建立了历史个例库;从地质环境背景着手,分析了地质灾害的气象诱因,重点研究了降水在地质灾害形成中的作用及其相关关系;根据气象地质灾害与前期及当日降水的关系,应用统计预报方法建立地质灾害潜势预报模型,对气象地质灾害发生的危险等级进行了可能性描述。所建立的地质灾害潜势预报系统、临近预报系统和监测报警系统,在实际预报业务中取得了很好的效果。     

宁夏地质灾害气象预报预警研究

利用1982—2004年宁夏的地质灾害与降水资料,分析了宁夏主要地质灾害的分布规律和形成机理,重点研究了引发地质灾害的气象条件。结果表明,滑坡和泥石流是宁夏主要的地质灾害类型,它们形成的气候条件都与降雨有直接的关系;地质灾害主要集中在其易发区内强降雨和暴雨出现频次较多的季节,由降雨引发的滑坡等地质灾害大多发生于降雨时段的中后期或稍后,泥石流一般与暴雨、持续降雨同时发生,雨量越大的地区地质灾害越发育,而连续性降水、短时强降水和暴雨是造成地质灾害的主要气象诱因。同时,根据研究结果,采用统计学方法建立了宁夏汛期地质灾害潜势预报模型,通过2004年汛期业务试运行,表明该预报模型有一定的参考价值,但还需进一步改进。     

桂林地区短时暴雨自动监测预警系统研究

通过制作混合扫描面,调整Z-I关系和自动站雨量校准等方法对多普勒天气雷达估测降水进行了优化,使雷达估测降水误差明显减小。运用交叉相关法、降水算法对雷达反射率因子进行计算,得到了未来1～2 h的定量预测降水。按照暴雨预警信号标准,将估测降水与预测降水累加,可及时获得暴雨预警信号信息,自动生成暴雨预警信号等级分布图,对达到预警信号标准的站点及时通过手机发布暴雨预警信号提示信息。结合多层次地理信息系统,形成了集自动站资料查询、雷达降水监测、临近预测、暴雨预警功能为一体的桂林雷达定量降水监测预警平台,为有效监测预警暴雨引发的山体滑坡、洪涝等气象灾害提供了客观定量依据。     

地质灾害预警预报及信息管理系统应用研究

根据调查,江西省地质灾害的诱发因素主要是降雨,因此,通过总结前人关于地质灾害预报预警的研究,提出了一套应用降雨资料对地质灾害进行预报预警的预警流程,并建立预警及信息管理系统。该系统采用空间数据库引擎技术管理海量滑坡、地质、地貌、降雨等数据及地质灾害的文档等资料。系统基于WebGIS技术,实现了地质灾害预报预警图的发布、信息查询、空间定位、空间叠加和地质灾害预警预报信息反馈等功能。     

Resilience in the context of tsunami early warning systems and community disaster preparedness in the Indian Ocean Region

This paper discusses insights from post-tsunami early warning system (EWS) development in Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia by analysing selected elements of resilience, based on the Coastal Community Resilience (CCR) framework, and by distinguishing between the cognitive, normative and procedural dimensions of EWSs. The findings indicate that (1) recent calls to develop participatory and people-centred EWSs as promoted by the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005—2015 have not been sufficiently translated into action in the implementation of national policies and strategies for early warning; (2) policy and guidance places significantly more emphasis on the procedural compared to the normative and cognitive dimensions of EWSs; (3) practitioners engaged in early warning and disaster risk reduction operate in contexts shaped by multiple stakeholder agendas and face considerable challenges in negotiating diverse needs and priorities; and (4) few platforms currently exist that enable stakeholders to coordinate and reconcile agendas, negotiate joint targets, share knowledge and critically reflect on lessons learnt, and to improve the integration of early warning with other priorities such as livelihoods improvement, natural resource management and community development.     

山区铁路沿线泥石流泥位自动监测预警系统

泥位预警是泥石流灾害预警的方法之一,目前主要有接触式和非接触式泥石流泥位报警两种方法。探讨了一种便于安装、适合山区铁路沿线泥石流监测预警的接触式泥位自动监测预警系统的构建及应用方法。首先探讨了泥石流泥位监测系统的工作原理及其软件、硬件的组成,其次探讨了泥位预警阈值确定方法,最后根据现场试验观测情况及所遇到的问题提出了泥位监测系统的应用方法。该泥石流泥位监测预警系统能实现泥山区铁路沿线石流泥位信息数据采集和传输的网络化、实时化、自动化、数字化(可视化),并根据监测信息及时向铁路相关部门发出预警信号。     

Explaining implementation behaviour of the National Incident Management System (NIMS)

This paper explains the perceived implementation behaviour of counties in the United States with respect to the National Incident Management System (NIMS). The system represents a massive and historic policy mandate designed to restructure, standardise and thereby unify the efforts of a wide variety of emergency management entities. Specifically, this study examined variables identified in the NIMS and policy literature that might influence the behavioural intentions and actual behaviour of counties. It found that three key factors limit or promote how counties intend to implement NIMS and how they actually implement the system: policy characteristics related to NIMS, implementer views and a measure of local capacity. One additional variable—inter‐organisational characteristics—was found to influence only actual behaviour. This study's findings suggest that the purpose underlying NIMS may not be fulfilled and confirm what disaster research has long suggested: the potential for standardisation in emergency management is limited.     

数字化天气预报与灾害天气预警自动合成系统——在黑龙江省的应用

在现有预报技术的基础上,提出了数字化天气预报技术,研究、建立了数字化天气预报系统,并突出了灾害性天气预报,概述了其接口标准和区域自动合成技术,介绍了系统的体系结构和数据流模型,并阐述了系统的功能结构。