An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting

The global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk and uncertainty in gold price fluctuations, make hedging, future investment and evaluation decisions, depend on forecasting future price trends. The first section of this paper reviews the world gold market and the historical trend of gold prices from January 1968 to December 2008. This is followed by an investigation into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflation over the last 40 years. The second section applies a modified econometric version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model for forecasting natural-resource commodity prices. This method addresses the deficiencies of previous models, such as jumps and dips as parameters and unit root test for long-term trends. The model proposes that historical data of mineral commodities have three terms to demonstrate fluctuation of prices: a long-term trend reversion component, a diffusion component and a jump or dip component. The model calculates each term individually to estimate future prices of mineral commodities. The study validates the model and estimates the gold price for the next 10 years, based on monthly historical data of nominal gold price.     

Investing in fertilizer–mining companies in times of food scarcity

The primary goal of the paper is to show the validity of investing capital in fertilizer–mining companies, both from a market return perspective for individual or institutional investors, or from a hedging standpoint for insurance companies and other economic actors exposed to inflation risk and high agricultural commodity prices. After providing some elements on the fertilizer market and describing the joint dynamics of corn, wheat and fertilizer prices over the last decade, we analyze an exhaustive sample of listed fertilizer producing companies over the years January 2004–December 2012. We show that their shares generated quite good returns over the whole period and extremely high ones during the years January 2004–December 2007, both in absolute terms and compared to their betas. We also exhibit that these returns display higher sensitivities to major agricultural indexes than to the World Bank Fertilizer Index, making the hedging argument quite compelling.     

An empirical approach to determine specific weights of driving factors for the price of commodities—A contribution to the measurement of the economic scarcity of minerals and metals

In recent years, commodity markets show a large amount of volatility and substantial price jumps, indicating an increasing economic scarcity in many cases. As this scarcity makes commodity procurement a critical issue for national economies, industry sectors and manufacturing companies, a number of criticality indices have been presented and utilized in science as well as in practice. These indices are mostly based on an aggregation of different key figures, both qualitative and quantitative. However, the weighting of the different factors is in most cases arbitrary or based on rough estimates.     

Costs and benefits of commodity control

The author considers the international commodity agreement as an economic instrument, and discusses its benefits and costs with respect to price stabilization and the building-up of buffer stocks. The author asserts that there is a wide range of economic arguments that can be employed to support the case for price stabilization as a form of commodity control. However, he argues that price stabilization is not desirable in all cases, because each commodity market is unique, and there can be certain costs associated with stabilization, in addition to the beneficial aspects. The feasibility of private financing of a part of the costs of buffer stock and export quota operations is also     

Promoting ecological sustainable planning for natural stone quarrying. The case of the Orosei Marble Producing Area in Eastern Sardinia

This paper presents an analysis of the main environmental impact factors (noise, vibration, fumes, dust, vehicle traffic) associated with marble quarrying and processing in the Orosei industrial area and their effects. Solutions are also proposed to prevent, mitigate and, where possible, eliminate the impact on the environment. Using three-dimensional topographic models, the authors simulated quarry and industrial processing development, with projections over the next 10, 30 and 50 years. The aim of these simulations was to establish land management planning guidelines for the optimal and environmentally sustainable development of the Orosei Marble industrial area. Lastly, careful quarry development planning is important both for enhancing LCA and for improving production processes through sustainable technologies that yield green label products meeting environmental performance standards.     

A review of the PGM industry,deposit models and exploration practices: Implications for Australia's PGM potential

Australia is prospective for platinum group metal (PGM) mineralisation (in particular primary magmatic reef, primary magmatic by-product, late magmatic and hydrothermal, and alluvial placer type) but its known PGM endowment is negligible compared to that of South Africa, Russia, the USA and Canada. Most Australian PGM projects are operated by mid-cap or junior companies and form part of larger, more diverse project portfolios held by these explorers. Most projects were ‘hot’ while market conditions were favourable. However, as other metals became ‘fashionable’ and market conditions for PGM changed, so did the focus of these companies. Pure PGM companies are rare in Australia. The search for and development of PGM-only deposits in Australia are high risk business activities. No new primary PGM deposits have been discovered since the mid to late 1980s and none of the significant deposits that were discovered or evaluated in the 1980s have been mined. This review suggests that at least several A$10 million but more likely several A$100 million were sunk into PGM exploration and development projects but none advanced to the mining stage. The viability of Australian PGM projects is very sensitive to (1) metal prices, (2) the US$/A$ exchange rate, and (3) large capital expenditure requirements relative to the small size of Australian PGM-only deposits. Most PGM-only projects were initiated at times of high PGM prices. However, advanced exploration, feasibility studies and project development always lagged behind the price booms. South Africa, Russia and Canada contain approximately 98% of the known global PGM reserves. This situation has a very negative effect on the Australian PGM industry as the well-endowed nations continue to receive the lion's share of exploration spend and new projects.     

Investor demand and spot commodity prices

The on-going debate over the influence of investor demand on spot commodity prices largely attempts to assess this influence by measuring the growth in investor demand in recent years. Given the serious data problems that plague such analyses, this article pursues another approach in the hope of providing useful insights into the impact of investor demand on spot commodity prices. It focuses on the mechanisms by which investor demand affects spot prices, and in particular on two questions. First, how does an increase in investor demand on the futures markets affect the spot market and spot price? Second, when investor demand is increasing and pushing a commodity's price up, do physical stocks of the commodity also have to be rising, as economists and others widely assume?On the first question, the article concludes that a surge in investor demand raising prices on the futures markets will have a direct and comparable effect on the spot market prices when these markets are in strong contango. However, when markets are in weak contango or backwardation, price movements in the futures markets have a much looser effect on spot prices. As a result, changes in investor demand on the futures markets may have little or no influence on spot prices in the absence of a strong contango. Instead, changes in fundamentals (that is, producer supply and consumer demand) and possibly changes in investor demand taking place directly on the spot market largely determine the spot price at such times.On the second question, the article shows that investor demand can be pushing up a commodity's price even when investor stocks are falling, despite the widespread presumption to the contrary.     

COSTS AND EFFECTS OF A WATER PROGRAM FOR A SMALL STRIPPING COMPANY-SOUTHEASTERN OHIO1

The purpose of the study was to use economic analysis in determining the ability of a small strip mining company to incure the financial burden of carrying out various alternative mine drainage abatement programs. The quantity and quality of water with which the company has to deal were determined and treatment and diversion programs were costed out. The company's market area and the market structure were analyzed. It was found that pricing policies were determined by a dominant firm, so the target company had no control over its price per ton of coal. The costs and revenue of the firm were analyzed for the period 1960-1970 and, even without a water quality program, losses were incurred in six out of eleven years. Analysis of the average cost curve indicates that the per unit cost could have been reduced by increasing output thereby increasing efficiency. The conclusions of the study were that the small company could not unilaterally implement mine drainage programs because the added costs would seriously worsen its already precarious financial position. Even uniformly enforced legislation might reduce the small firms competitive position because of economies of scale associated with the large treatment facilities used by big mining companies.     

World copper market, 1973–1982, and international stabilization policies

This article critically examines international price stabilization policy in relation to the main features of the world copper market and the structural changes that have affected the industry in the decade up to 1982. The first section summarizes the main features of the world copper market, briefly discussing the principal structural changes; the second part examines the recent pattern of investment in copper and changes in ownership of some copper producing companies resulting from the need for improved cash flows due to the adverse effects of the recession; and the third part analyses the practical and theoretical issues relating to the question of price instability. A number of formidable problems are likely to arise from such price stabilization policies and it is concluded that it is because of these difficulties that the policies have not been implemented. Consequently, international commodity agreements designed to minimize or avoid price instability have proved difficult to conclude. New questions on which consensus is likely should be examined to promote intergovernmental co-operation, and hence market stability. With that end in view, this article lists some new questions that could form the basis of an agenda for exploratory intergovernmental discussions on copper.     

浅谈我国上市公司资本结构特点及优化措施

我国上市公司资本结构的主要特点是偏好股权投资、流动负债比率偏高、债券比重小。要改变我国上市公司资本结构中呈现的重股轻债的状况,需采取优化股权结构、发展和完善债券市场、规范股市行为等措施,使我国上市公司的资本结构日趋合理。     

Recent changes in international commodity agreements

The contents of international commodity agreements have changed from those in which open-ended intervention mechanisms regulated the market defending a normative price to those limiting intervention so as not to obscure market forces and consequently the market price. Underlying this change is the principle to which the developed countries accorded the highest priority, namely that the interests of producing and consuming countries must balance to avoid an indiscriminate transfer of resources. On the other hand, the principles which guided agreements that set a normative price were based on the grounds that the market price determined by unequal partners was unfair and that internationally agreed developmental goals implied untied and unconditional resource transfers by means of normative, higher than market, prices. These two sets of principles were incompatible. As a result negotiations were not only difficult but inconclusive. Another reason for this outcome was that the question of the cost effectiveness of market duplicating agreements based on the principle of balanced interests was unresolved. These reasons explain why commodity agreements do not figure currently in substantive discussions on North-South cooperation and why only three commodity agreements have a functional role and even of these three, one is not in force definitively.     

Oil spills on other commodities

This paper examines the effect of crude oil prices on the prices of 35 internationally traded primary commodities for the 1960–2005 period. It finds that the pass-through of crude oil price changes to the overall non-energy commodity index is 0.16. At a more disaggregated level, the fertilizer index had the highest pass-through (0.33), followed by agriculture (0.17), and metals (0.11). The prices of precious metals also exhibited a strong response to crude oil price. In terms of individual commodities, the estimates of the food group exhibited remarkable similarity while those of raw materials and metals gave a mixed picture. The implication is that if crude oil prices remain high for some time, as most analysts expect, then the recent commodity price boom is likely to last much longer than earlier booms, at least for food commodities. The other commodities, however, are likely to follow diverging paths. On the methodological side, the results show that price indices, while providing useful summary statistics, they need to be supplemented by individual commodity analysis.     

Diversification or specialization : The role of risk

The purpose of this article is to analyse the use of diversification and market specialization as corporate strategies by non-ferrous metal company managements as responses to adverse financial conditions. The analytical framework is provided by the financial theory of risk. Managements must deal with both company specific risk and market risk as they attempt to improve the profitability of their companies. Companies from the US copper industry are used as empirical examples. Deversification is a flexible but risky strategy. Specialization is a more restrictive strategy but it is less risky. The appropriate strategy to use depends on the particular situation of a company.     

UNCTAD's integrated programme for commodities: Economic implications and Europe's response

This paper discusses some major economic problems raised by proposals towards a new international commodity policy. The author analyses the economic implications of commodity price stabilization and price raising, and focuses on the questions of operationality of the IPC and on the alleged merits of a common financing of individual buffer stocks. He discusses financing schemes compensating for fluctuations of export earnings, and finally points to a number of areas in which Europe could make a constructive contribution to mitigate the commodity problem.     

Estimating the volatility of mining projects considering price and operating cost uncertainties

In the real option pricing model of valuation and decision making, the estimation of future volatility is a key input parameter. For traded commodities or financial assets, past volatility is used as a proxy for predictions. But, for projects, this approach is not feasible because, in most cases, historical data of traded projects are not available. As an alternate solution, it is usually assumed that project volatility is equal to that of commodity price. In order to investigate this assumption, we estimate the project volatility considering that both commodity price and operating cost evolve as a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). Results of a hypothetical gold mining project indicate that project volatility is higher than that of commodity price and it only drops to price volatility under very unrealistic industry conditions, such as very high prices or very low production costs. In addition, we find that project volatility is independent of production capacity and taxation, but depends on increments in price and cost, as well as strongly on their degree of correlation.     

Capital structure and asset utilization: the case of resource intensive industries

This research studies the relationship between the capital structure of a firm and its asset utilization rate in resource intensive industries. We study this issue from both private and public policy perspectives. From a private perspective, it's conceivable that a positive relationship may exist because a company is trying to increase its use of debt to effect a more efficient utilization of its assets. However, from a public policy perspective, finding a positive relationship between asset utilization and debt levels in natural resource sensitive industries may signal a sub-optimal exploitation of natural resources when debt levels rise. This research examines measures of leverage and asset utilization in firms from the mining, oil, and timber industries to determine whether the behavior alleged in the PALCO/MAXXAM case (an increased cutting rate to pay off junk bond financing) has been observed more systematically. We observe a positive relationship between leverage and asset utilization in all three industries when leverage is calculated using book value measures. When market value measures are used, this positive relationship no longer holds in the mining industry. Possible explanations for these results are offered.     

Measurement of market power for the environmentally regulated Korean iron and steel manufacturing industry

For industries in which where market prices of certain inputs are not available, measuring the degree of market power by using the markup over the marginal market cost may be inappropriate. With regard to the Korean iron and steel manufacturing industry, which is subject to environmental regulations, the calculation of the price of abatement capital is hindered by a lack of relevant data. To increase the reliability of market power markups, this paper estimates the restricted cost function in which abatement capital is assumed to be quasi-fixed at an optimal level and the supply relation. The degree of market power for the industry, measured as the ratio of the estimated market power markup to the supply price, was estimated to be 0.54 on average between 1982 and 2001. The results indicate that ignoring environmental regulations can overstate the degree of market power by approximately 12%.     

Legal and regulatory aspects of financing commodity exporters and the provision of bank hedging line credit in developing countries

Exporters of raw materials and commodities in developing countries depend on the availability of hard currency pre-export financing and the adoption of pricing policies which meet the requirements of the international marketplace to produce and market their products in an efficient manner. The author has identified a number of structural obstacles which impede access both to international financing and to price risk management tools which could be overcome through relatively simple modifications in export regulations, currency controls, insurance regulations and in laws concerning title to goods.     

The impact of monetary liquidity on Chinese aluminum prices

By expanding Frankel and Rose's (2009) theoretical model to consider the interaction of commodity prices with both money liquidity and expectation formation, this paper empirically studies the long-run relationship and short-term dynamics between aluminum prices and money liquidity via Vector autoregressive (VAR) and Impulse Response Function methodologies. Our results show that: (1) a cointegration relationship between money liquidity and Chinese aluminum prices exists, and monetary liquidity positively significantly influences the price over long periods; (2) a structural change has been found during the 2008 Financial Crisis and the change of Chinese monetary policies; and (3) the negative impact of production capacity mechanism on aluminum prices coexists with the positive impact of financial asset returns mechanism, to allow for varied market expectations on aluminum prices within and outside China.     

Optimal production and pricing policy for a closed loop system

A closed loop system is investigated, in which the manufacturer has two channels to satisfy the demand: manufacturing brand-new products and remanufacturing returns into as-new products. Remanufactured products have no difference from brand-new products and can be sold in the same market at the same price. The demand is uncertain and sensitive to the selling price, while the return is also stochastic and sensitive to the acquisition price of used products. A mathematical model is developed to maximize the overall profit of the system by simultaneously determining the selling price, the production quantities for brand-new products and remanufactured products, and the acquisition price of used products. Some properties of the problem are analyzed, based on which a solution procedure is presented. Through a numerical example, the impacts of the uncertainties of both demand and return on the production plan, selling price, and the acquisition price of used products are analyzed.