Population Variability and Extinction Risk

Abstract: Population models generally predict increased extinction risk (ER) with increased population variability (  PV  ), yet some empirical tests have provided contradictory findings. We resolve this conflict by attributing negative measured relationships to a statistical artifact that arises because PV tends to be underestimated for populations with short persistence. Such populations do not go extinct quickly as a consequence of low intrinsic variability; instead, the measured variability is low because they go extinct so quickly. Consequently, any underlying positive relationship between PV and ER tends to be obscured. We conducted a series of analyses to evaluate this claim. Simulations showed that negative measured relationships are to be expected, despite an underlying positive relationship. Simulations also identified properties of data, minimizing this bias and thereby permitting meaningful analysis. Experimental data on laboratory populations of a bruchid beetle (Callosobruchus maculatus) supported the simulation results. Likewise, with an appropriate statistical approach (Cox regression on untransformed data), reanalysis of a controversial data set on British island bird populations revealed a significant positive association between PV and ER (p = 0.03). Finally, a similar analysis of time series for naturally regulated animal populations revealed a positive association between PV and quasiextinction risk (p < 0.01). Without exception, our simulation results, experimental findings, reanalysis of published data, and analysis of quasiextinction risk all contradict previous reports of negative or equivocal relationships. Valid analysis of meaningful data provides strong evidence that increased population variability leads to increased extinction risk.     

Fragmentation of Phragmites Habitats, Minimum Viable Population Size, Habitat Suitability, and Local Extinction of Moths, Midges, Flies, Aphids, and Birds

Results from populations of insects and birds inhabiting Phragmites habitats were used to analyze effects of fragmentation. Flush-crash cycles of the stem-boring moth Archanara geminipuncta (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) showed regionally concurrent, local extinctions despite an originally enormous population size (more than 180,000 adults), emphasizing the importance of metapopulation dynamics. Further, A. geminipuncta could be considered a keystone species, since shoot damage facilitated more than twenty species of herbivores, saprovores (of the caterpillars' feces), and their parasitoids. The gall midge Lasioptera arundinis could survive only in side shoots induced by shoot damage of A. geminipuncta .
Small Phragmites stands had thinner shoots (due to a water or nutrient deficiency) and shoots with more leaves (due to a better light supply) than large stands, thereby influencing species-specific demands for habitat suitability and nutritiousness of reed tissue. In other words significance of habitat fragmentation could not be assessed by area alone. For example, two chloropid flies depending on thin, yellowish shoots survived only in small habitats or in the unmown edges of large habitats.
Local persistence of Phragmites herbivores depended on much larger population sizes than could be expected from a population size sufficient to maintain genetic variation. At least 11,000 adults of the gall midge Giraudiella inclusa (or more than 84,000 galls) were necessary to avoid local extinction.
With regard to conservation management of reed habitats, nature reserves should consist of old and unmown reeds, have fewer disturbed (particularly, fewer mown) habitat edges, measure more than two hectares (priority should go to the largest remaining fragments), and be surrounded by nearby reed habitats providing reservoir populations and diverse shoot types.     

Variability in Population Abundance and the Classification of Extinction Risk

Abstract: Classifying species according to their risk of extinction is a common practice and underpins much conservation activity. The reliability of such classifications rests on the accuracy of threat categorizations, but very little is known about the magnitude and types of errors that might be expected. The process of risk classification involves combining information from many sources, and understanding the quality of each source is critical to evaluating the overall status of the species. One common criterion used to classify extinction risk is a decline in abundance. Because abundance is a direct measure of conservation status, counts of individuals are generally the preferred method of evaluating whether populations are declining. Using the thresholds from criterion A of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (critically endangered, decline in abundance of >80% over 10 years or 3 generations; endangered, decline in abundance of 50–80%; vulnerable, decline in abundance of 30–50%; least concern or near threatened, decline in abundance of 0–30%), we assessed 3 methods used to detect declines solely from estimates of abundance: use of just 2 estimates of abundance; use of linear regression on a time series of abundance; and use of state‐space models on a time series of abundance. We generated simulation data from empirical estimates of the typical variability in abundance and assessed the 3 methods for classification errors. The estimates of the proportion of falsely detected declines for linear regression and the state‐space models were low (maximum 3–14%), but 33–75% of small declines (30–50% over 15 years) were not detected. Ignoring uncertainty in estimates of abundance (with just 2 estimates of abundance) allowed more power to detect small declines (95%), but there was a high percentage (50%) of false detections. For all 3 methods, the proportion of declines estimated to be >80% was higher than the true proportion. Use of abundance data to detect species at risk of extinction may either fail to detect initial declines in abundance or have a high error rate.     

Inbreeding and Extinction: A Threshold Effect

A fundamental assumption underlying the application of genetics within conservation biology is that inbreeding increases the risk of extinction. However, there is no information on the shape of the relationship, the available evidence has not distinguished genetic and nongenetic effects, and the issue is controversial. Methods were devised to separate genetic and nongenetic causes of extinction in inbred populations, and they were used to analyze data from Drosophila melanogaster, D. virilis and Mus musculus . Inbreeding markedly increased rates of extinction in all cases. All showed a threshold relationship between incremental extinction and inbreeding with low initial extinction, but they showed notably increased extinction beginning at intermediate levels of inbreeding. There was no difference in extinction levels at similar inbreeding coefficients in populations inbred at different rates (full sibling versus double first cousin). Endangered species may give little warning of impending extinction crises due to inbreeding.     

Human Population Density and Prediction of Local Plant Extinction in Britain

Throughout the world, and particularly in densely populated countries like Britain, human activities exert a dominant influence on the abundance of both plants and animals. The commonness and rarity of plants in Britain has been plausibly linked to human land use. In Western Europe the identity of increasing and decreasing plants appears to depend on human population density, which is itself a crude measure of human impact on the landscape. The publication of new data on the changing distributions of scarce British plants allowed us to investigate the relationship between loss of scarce plants and human population density in Britain. Our results confirm that a direct effect of human population density on local plant extinctions can be detected at the regional scale in Britain. Although intensive agriculture is conventionally regarded as the greatest threat to British wildlife, our analysis suggests that urbanization may be at least as significant a danger.     

Vaquita Bycatch in Mexico's Artisanal Gillnet Fisheries: Driving a Small Population to Extinction

Abstract: The world's most endangered marine cetacean, the vaquita (   Phocoena sinus ), continues to be caught in small-mesh gillnet fisheries throughout much of its range. We monitored fishing effort and incidental vaquita mortality in the upper Gulf of California, Mexico, from January 1993 to January 1995 to study the magnitude and causes of the incidental take. Of those factors studied, including net mesh size, soaktime, and geographic area, none contributed significantly to the incidental mortality rate of the vaquita, implying that the principal cause of mortality is fishing with gillnets per se . The total estimated incidental mortality caused by the fleet of El Golfo de Santa Clara was 39 vaquitas per year (95% CI = 14, 93), over 17% of the most recent estimate of population size. El Golfo de Santa Clara is one of three main ports that support gillnet fisheries throughout the range of the vaquita. Preliminary results indicate that fishing effort for San Felipe, Baja California, is comparable to that of El Golfo de Santa Clara, suggesting that this estimate of incidental mortality of vaquitas represents a minimum. We strongly recommend a complete and permanent ban on gillnets in the area. Alternative or supplemental mitigation strategies include (1) a maximum annual allowable mortality limit of vaquitas; (2) mandatory observer coverage of all boats fishing within the Upper Gulf of California and Colorado River Delta Biosphere Reserve; (3) extension of the Upper Gulf of California and Colorado River Delta Biosphere Reserve to encompass all known vaquita habitat; (4) rigorous enforcement of new and existing regulations; and (5) development of alternative sources of income for gillnet fishers.     

北京松山油松种群结构及空间分布格局

研究了北京松山自然保护区天然油松(Pinus tabulaeformisr)林的树冠结构和个体胸径,通过Ripley's K函数探讨了油松种群不同层次个体(幼树、小树和大树)的空间分布及空间关系,并探讨了地形(海拔高度、坡度)对油松种群空间分布的影响.结果表明,油松种群的胸径分布呈双峰型,应用Weibull函数拟合效果较好;树冠分布呈倒J型;胸径与冠幅存在显著的指数关系.油松种群呈聚集分布,但随高度增Jm(幼树→树→大树)聚集强度逐渐减弱,枯立木在样地内呈随机分布.枯立木与油松大树在1 m、5 m和13～18 m距离为显著正相关,幼树与小树在2～4 m和6～18 m距离呈显著正相关.海拔高度与油松种群呈正相关,坡度与幼树分布呈正相关,与小树和大树分布呈负相关.图5表2参24     

A Study of Plant Species Extinction in Singapore: Lessons for the Conservation of Tropical Biodiversity

The native vascular plant flora of the Republic of Singapore has suffered the extinction of 594 out of a total 2277 species. These represent local, not global, species extinctions. Coastal habitats, including mangroves, have lost 39% of their species, while inland forests have last 29%. Epiphytic species (62% loss) appear particularly prone to extinction, which is reflected in a similar disposition exhibited by the Orchidaceae. Deforestation and disturbance have been the main cause of plant species extinction in Singapore. The rich mangrove epiphyte flora has been totally exterminated, and a number of tree species are reduced to populations of a few mature individuals. Many more species continue to survive than the species-area relationship would predict given the 99.8% loss of primary forest. This is interpreted as a result of the failure of equilibrium to be achieved yet in the remnant forest fragments, even after more than a century of isolation. Singapore's secondary forests appear to accrete plant diversity very slowly, even if contiguous with primary forest areas. We conclude that remnant fragments of primary tropical forest, even of very small size, can play a major role in the conservation of tropical biodiversity. The patterns of extinction observed in Singapore indicate that coastal and estuarine sites are in greatest demand for development and therefore must be given high priority for conservation despite their somewhat lower biodiversity. Epiphyte and orchid diversity appear to be very good indicators of the degree of disturbance suffered by a habitat in the humid tropics.     

Rapid Loss of Genetic Variation in Large Captive Populations of Drosophila Flies: Implications for the Genetic Management of Captive Populations

Levels of variation in eight large captive populations of D. melanogaster (census sizes ∼ 5000) that had been in captivity for periods from 6 months to 23 years (8 to 365 generations) were estimated from allozyme heterozygosities, lethal frequencies, and inversion heterozygosities and phenotypic variances, additive genetic variances ( V _A), and heritabilities ( h ²) for sternopleural bristle numbers. Correlations between all measures of variation except lethal frequencies were high and significant. All measures of genetic variation declined with time in captivity, with those for average heterozygosities, V _A, and h ² being significant. The effective population size ( N _e) was estimated to be 185–253 in these populations, only 0.037–0.051 of census size (N). Levels of allozyme heterozygosities declined rapidly in two large captive populations founded from another wild stock, being reduced by 86% and 62% within 2.5 years in spite of being maintained at sizes of approximately 1000 and 3500. Estimates of N _e/ N for these populations were only 0.016 and 0.004. Two estimates of N _e/ N for captive populations of D. pseudoobscura from data in the literature were also low at 0.036 and 0.012. Consequently, the rate of loss of genetic variation in captive populations and endangered species may be more rapid than hitherto recognized. Merely maintaining captive populations at large census sizes may not be sufficient to maintain essential genetic variation.     

Effects of Human Population Density and Proximity to Markets on Coral Reef Fishes Vulnerable to Extinction by Fishing

Coral reef fisheries are crucial to the livelihoods of tens of millions of people; yet, widespread habitat degradation and unsustainable fishing are causing severe depletion of stocks of reef fish. Understanding how social and economic factors, such as human population density, access to external markets, and modernization interact with fishing and habitat degradation to affect fish stocks is vital to sustainable management of coral reef fisheries. We used fish survey data, national social and economic data, and path analyses to assess whether these factors explain variation in biomass of coral reef fishes among 25 sites in Solomon Islands. We categorized fishes into 3 groups on the basis of life‐history characteristics associated with vulnerability to extinction by fishing (high, medium, and low vulnerability). The biomass of fish with low vulnerability was positively related to habitat condition. The biomass of fishes with high vulnerability was negatively related to fishing conducted with efficient gear. Use of efficient gear, in turn, was strongly and positively related to both population density and market proximity. This result suggests local population pressure and external markets have additive negative effects on vulnerable reef fish. Biomass of the fish of medium vulnerability was not explained by fishing intensity or habitat condition, which suggests these species may be relatively resilient to both habitat degradation and fishing. Efectos de la Densidad de Poblaciones Humanas y la Proximidad del Mercado sobre Peces de Arrecifes de Coral Vulnerables a la Extinción     

Population respiration: A theoretical approach

It is shown that the error in an estimate of the population respiration should generally not exceed 10% if the mean body weight is used instead of the full weight distribution. A convenient mathematical formulation of the Krogh-curve is given such that the commonly used exponential temperature dependence (Q₁₀ law) of the respiration rate is only a special case. A formula is derived which expresses the effect of a cyclic temperature relative to a constant temperature on the respiration of an animal, the respiration rate of which follows a Krogh-curve. This formula is shown to provide good estimates of annual population respiration both for cases where the population biomass can be considered as constant over the year and when its variation can be approximated with a sinusfunction. Our methods of estimating population respiration are shown to compare favourably with earlier shortcut methods.     

Interspecific Patterns of Genetic Diversity in Birds: Correlations with Extinction Risk

Abstract:  Birds are frequently used as indicators of ecosystem health and are the most comprehensively studied class in the animal kingdom. Nevertheless, a comprehensive, interspecific assessment of the correlates of avian genetic diversity is lacking, even though indices of genetic diversity are of considerable interest in the conservation of threatened species. We used published data on variation at microsatellite loci from 194 bird species to examine correlates of diversity, particularly with respect to conservation status and population size. We found a significant decline in mean heterozygosity with increasing extinction risk, and showed, by excluding species whose heterozygosity values were calculated with heterospecific primers, that this relationship was not dependent on ascertainment bias. Results of subsequent regression analyses suggested that smaller population sizes of threatened species were largely responsible for this relationship. Thus, bird species at risk of extinction are relatively depauperate in terms of neutral genetic diversity, which is expected to make population recovery more difficult if it reflects adaptive genetic variation. Conservation policy will need to minimize further loss of diversity if the chances of saving threatened species are to be maximized.