Modelling the resilience of Australian savanna systems to grazing impacts.

Savannas occur across all of northern Australia and are extensively used as rangelands. A recent surge in live cattle exports to Southeast Asia has caused excessive grazing impacts in some areas, especially near watering points. An important ecological and management question is "how resilient are savanna ecosystems to grazing disturbances?" Resilience refers to the ability of an ecosystem to remain in its current state (resist change) and return to this state (recover) if disturbed. Resilience responses can be measured using field data. These responses can then be modelled to predict the likely resistance and recovery of savannas to grazing impacts occurring under different climatic conditions. Two approaches were used to model resilience responses. First, a relatively simple mathematical model based on a sigmoid response function was used. This model proved useful for comparing the relative resilience of different savanna ecosystems, but was limited to ecosystems and conditions for which data were available. Second, a complex process model, SAVANNA, was parameterised to simulate the structure and function of Australian savannas. Simulations were run for 50 years at two levels of grazing to evaluate resistance and then for another 50 years with no grazing to evaluate recovery. These runs predicted that savanna grasslands were more resistant to grazing (changed less) than red-loam woodlands, which recovered relatively slowly from grazing impacts. The SAVANNA model also predicted that these woodlands would recover slightly slower under the climate change scenario projected for northern Australia.     

Aspects of the uptake of radionuclides by sheep grazing on an estuarine saltmarsh. 1. The influence of grazing behaviour and environmental variability on daily intake

Sea water contaminated with diluted radioactive effluent originating from the Sellafield reprocessing plant inundates saltmarshes in the Esk estuary in west Cumbria (UK). Much of the radioactivity on the saltmarsh vegetation was found to be associated with a surface deposit of silt, brought onto the area during tidal inundation. Large temporal variations in the radionuclide concentrations of the vegetation were found, these being due probably to seasonal fluctuation in the extent of silt deposition.The grazing habits of sheep were studied on one of these saltmarshes and the consequent ingestion of radionuclides by the sheep was estimated. The sheep ingested different quantities of radionuclides according to time of year as a result of a combination of two factors; the considerable temporal variation in the concentration of radionuclides on the saltmarsh vegetation and the seasonal grazing behaviour of the sheep.     

Modelling change in state of complex ecological systems in space and time: An application to sustainable grazing management

Meeting the challenge of sustainable development requires substantial advances in understanding of the interaction of natural and human systems. The emerging ecosystem management paradigm of multiple stable states, non-linear systems behaviour, discontinuous change, self-organisation and multiple development pathways has major implications for when and how change in complex systems occurs and how it can be managed. It also poses considerable challenges for modelling the structure and function of natural and human management systems, including fundamental constraints relating to: scaling mismatches, synthesis of non-homogeneous information, multiscaled system interactions, complex management systems, uncertainty in causal relationships, assessment of trade-offs, and validation. This paper examines how a decision support system (DSS) for sustainable grazing management, called Landassess DSS, attempts to deal with some of these issues through an integrated systems approach to DSS development. This approach utilises object-oriented techniques, knowledge-based systems, geographical information systems (GIS), and a state-and-transition model framework to model the critical change processes. It provides for the identification of the major driving factors and constraints to change in complex resource management systems, as well as the assessment of the likely trade-offs between resource sustainability and economic production at a scale relevant to management decision-making (i.e., paddock or property).     

Periphyton grazing and phosphorus excretion by mollusks

The physiological activity of grazers related to feeding, assimilation, and excretion may either increase or decrease the productivity of algae in a periphyton community, depending on the size of the consumer and its population density. Population data on the numbers and biomass of Anisus spp. have been used to calculate the amount of mineral phosphorus per unit area regenerated in the medium through animal metabolism. No difference in the rate of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) excretion has been found between pulmonates and the bivalve Sphaerium suecicum.     

Using the Q10 model to simulate E. coli survival in cowpats on grazing lands

Microbiological quality of surface waters can be affected by microbial load in runoff from grazing lands. This effect, with other factors, depends on the survival of microorganisms in animal waste deposited on pastures. Since temperature is a leading environmental parameter affecting survival, it indirectly impacts water microbial quality. The Q₁₀ model is widely used to predict the effect of temperature on rates of biological processes, including survival. Objectives of this work were to (i) evaluate the applicability of the Q₁₀ model to Escherichia coli inactivation in bovine manure deposited on grazing land (i.e., cowpats) and (ii) identify explanatory variables for the previously reported E. coli survival dynamics in cowpats. Data utilized in this study include published results on E. coli concentrations in natural and repacked cowpats from research conducted the U.S. (Virginia and Maryland), New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Inspection of the datasets led to conceptualizing E. coli survival (in cowpats) as a two-stage process, in which the initial stage was due to growth, inactivation or stationary state of the population and the second stage was the approximately first-order inactivation. Applying the Q₁₀ model to these datasets showed a remarkable similarity in inactivation rates, using the thermal time. The reference inactivation rate constant of 0.042 (thermal days)^− 1 at 20 °C gave a good approximation (R² = 0.88) of all inactivation stage data with Q₁₀ = 1.48. The reference inactivation rate constants in individual studies were no different from the one obtained by pooling all data (P < 0.05). The rate of logarithm of the E. coli concentration change during the first stage depended on temperature. Duration of the first stage, prior to the first-order inactivation stage and the initial concentration of E. coli in cowpats, could not be predicted from available data. Diet and age are probable factors affecting these two parameters however, until their environmental and management predictors are known, microbial water quality modeling must treat them as a stochastic source of uncertainty in simulation results.     

Modelling the trade-off between fire and grazing in a tropical savanna landscape, northern Australia.

As savannas are widespread across northern Australia and provide northern rangelands, the sustainable use of this landscape is crucial. Both fire and grazing are known to influence the tree-grass character of tropical savannas. Frequent fires open up the tree layer and change the ground layer from perennials to that dominated by annuals. Annual species in turn produce copious quantities of highly flammable fuel that perpetuates frequent, hot fires. Grazing reduces fuel loads because livestock consumes fuel-forage. This trade-off between fire and grazing was modelled using a spatially explicit, process-orientated model (SAVANNA) and field data from fire experiments performed in the Victoria River District of northern Australia. Results of simulating fire (over 40 years) with minimal or no grazing pressure revealed a reduction in the shrub and woody plants, a reduction in grasses, and no influence on the tree structure given mild fires. While mature trees were resistant to fire, immature trees, which are more likely associated with the shrub layer, were removed by fire. The overall tree density may be reduced with continual burning over longer time periods because of increasing susceptibility of old trees to fire and the lack of recruitment. Increases in stocking rates created additional forage demands until the majority of the fuel load was consumed, thus effectively suppressing fire and reverting to the grazing and suppressed fire scenario where trees and shrubs established.     

Aspects of the uptake of radionuclides by sheep grazing on an estuarine saltmarsh. 2. Radionuclides in sheep tissues

The transfer ¹³⁷Cs, ²³⁸Pu, ^239/240Pu and ²⁴¹Am to sheep which graze a saltmarsh in the Esk estuary, 7 km south of the sellafield reprocessing plant in west Cumbria (UK), has been estimated.The concentrations of gamma-emitting radionuclides and of ²³⁸Pu, ^239/240Pu and ²⁴¹Am were measured in liver, lung, muscle, kidney and bone from saltmarsh ewes and lambs. ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in the soft tissues were similar in liver, lung and muscle but were consistently higher in kidney and much lower in bone. The highest concentration of the transuranics was found in liver.Transfer coefficients and concentration factors were calculated for both ewes and lambs. The concentration of ¹³⁷Cs in the tissues of 5-month old lambs was higher than in those of their mothers. Therefore, a higher transfer coefficient was obtained for lamb muscle (1·8 × 10^?1 d kg^?1) than for ewe muscle (6·4 × 10^?2 d kg^?1). Concentration factors were consistently higher for ¹³⁷Cs than for the transuranics.     

Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

Study on Simulating Spatial Distribution and Varying Patterns of Urumqi＇s Population

In this paper, an approach to simulate the spatial distribution of urban population is proposed using urban land use and population statistical data through the geographical information systems （GIS）. Then, the spatial population distribution of Urumqi as a case is simulated by the approach mentioned above and its varying patterns are analyzed by the raster population surface. As a result, producing raster population surface is more accurate and natural than the traditional choropleth map of population density. Concerning the spatial population distribution of Urumqi, the population density declines from south to north and the population distribution mainly presents＇ ＂T-type＂, the population distribution presents multicentre agglomeration and the population distribution of the districts shows different features. The population density varies significantly with the increase in the distance from central business district （CBD）. Finally, it is found in this paper that the development history of districts, terrain and traffic road are main factors that have an influence Urumqi＇s population distribution. This paper tries to provide more accurate population data for the plan and management of urban land, traffic and public facilities in order to enrich the researches on urban population distribution.     

Study on Simulating Spatial Distribution and Varying Patterns of Urumqi's Population

Abstract

In this paper, an approach to simulate the spatial distribution of urban population is proposed using urban land use and population statistical data through the geographical information systems (GIS). Then, the spatial population distribution of Urumqi as a case is simulated by the approach mentioned above and its varying patterns are analyzed by the raster population surface. As a result, producing raster population surface is more accurate and natural than the traditional choropleth map of population density. Concerning the spatial population distribution of Urumqi, the population density declines from south to north and the population distribution mainly presents “T-type”, the population distribution presents multi-centre agglomeration and the population distribution of the districts shows different features. The population density varies significantly with the increase in the distance from central business district (CBD). Finally, it is found in this paper that the development history of districts, terrain and traffic road are main factors that have an influence Urumqi's population distribution. This paper tries to provide more accurate population data for the plan and management of urban land, traffic and public facilities in order to enrich the researches on urban population distribution.     

Simulating mesoscale transport and diffusion of radioactive noble gases using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model

In order to simulate the impact of mesoscale wind fields and to assess potential capability of atmospheric Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) as an emergency response model for the decision supports, two different simulations of LPDM with the mesoscale prognostic model MM5 (Mesoscale Model ver. 5) were driven. The first simulation of radioactive noble gas ((85)Kr exponent) emitted during JCO accident occurred from 30 September to 3 October 1999 at Tokai, Japan showed that the first arriving short pulse was found in Tsukuba located at 60km away from the accidental area. However, the released radioactive noble gas was transported back to the origin site about 2 days later due to the mesoscale meteorological wind circulation, enhancing the levels of (85)Kr with the secondary peak in Tsukuba. The second simulation of atmospheric dilution factors (the ratio of concentration to the emission rate, chi/Q), during the underground nuclear test (UNT) performed by North Korea showed that high chi/Q moved to the eastward and extended toward southward in accordance with the mesoscale atmospheric circulations generated by mesoscale prognostic model MM5. In comparison with the measurements, the simulated horizontal distribution patterns of (85)Kr during the JCO are well accord with that of observation in Tsukuba such as the existence of secondary peak which is associated with the mesoscale circulations. However, the simulated level of (85)Kr anomaly was found to be significantly lower than the observations, and some interpretations on these discrepancies were described. Applications of LPDM to two mesoscale emergency response dispersion cases suggest the potential capability of LPDM to be used as a decision support model provided accurate emission rate of accident in case of a large accident.     

The socio-economic vulnerability of the Australian east coast grazing sector to the impacts of climate change

Regional Environmental Change - Research that projects biophysical changes under climate change is more advanced than research that projects socio-economic changes. There is a need in adaptation...     

红壤丘陵区土壤有机碳储量模拟

土壤的有机碳蓄积量及其动态变化,不仅是维持农业生产可持续发展的重要因素,而且在全球变化碳循环研究中具有重要地位.本文基于GIS技术和DNDC模型,以江西省余江县为例,模拟研究了典型红壤丘陵区不同土地利用方式下的土壤有机碳储量及其变化.结果表明:余江县表层土壤有机碳储量为3.52×109 kg,平均土壤有机碳密度为4.24 kg m-2.不同利用方式中,灌溉水田的土壤有机碳密度最高,其次是望天田、园地、林地和菜地,旱地的较低,草地的最低.该县土壤有机碳库的年度变化量为8.63×107 kg, 变化率为+2.45%.土壤有机碳密度下降的地区多位于农田区内,特别是旱地,部分灌溉水田的碳密度略有增加,林地、园地、草地的土壤有机碳密度是增加的,其中园地的增幅最大.在不考虑土壤流失的情况下,自然植被覆盖下的土壤碳截留能力强于农业植被下的土壤,但是灌溉、施肥、种植绿肥等保护性农业措施可以减少土壤碳的损失,甚至增加有机碳的储量.     

Woody plant encroachment following grazing abandonment in the subalpine belt: a case study in northern Spain

Regional Environmental Change - The montane and subalpine belts in European mountains were affected by intense land use/land cover changes during the twentieth century. In the case of the subalpine...     

Simulating transport of non-Chernobyl (137)Cs and (90)Sr in the North Atlantic-Arctic region

The spatial and temporal distributions of the anthropogenic radionuclides (137)Cs and (90)Sr, originating from nuclear bomb testing and the Sellafield reprocessing plants in the Irish Sea, are simulated using a global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The physical model is forced with daily atmospheric re-analysed fields for the period 1950 to present. Comparison of temporal evolution of observed and simulated concentrations of (137)Cs have been conducted for the regions east of Scotland, west of central Norway and at the entrance of the Barents Sea. It follows that the radionuclides from the Sellafield discharge reach the Barents Sea region after 4-5 years, in accordance with observations. The simulation provides a detailed distribution and evolution of the radionuclides over the integration time. For the Atlantic waters off the coast of Norway and in the southern Barents Sea, the atmospheric fallout dominates over the Sellafield release up to the mid 1960s and from the early 1990s, whereas Sellafield is the main source for the two radionuclides in the 1970s and 1980s. It is furthermore argued that model systems like the one presented here can be used for future prediction of radioactive contaminations in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean, for instance under various global warming scenarios.     

Formation and degradation of meadows under the impact of hay harvesting and grazing in the Vychegda and Pechora floodplains

Transformation of meadow communities under the impact of hay harvesting and livestock grazing has been studied in the floodplains of the Vychegda and Pechora rivers. Changes in the floristic composition, structure, and productivity of meadows have been evaluated using synanthropization and adventization indices. On this basis, meadow phytocenoses at three different stages of pasture digression have been distinguished.     

Land management and environmental change in small-island-developing states: the case of St. Lucia

Regional Environmental Change - Although the history of the plantation economy and its land tenure legacy have contributed significantly to environmental degradation in Caribbean...     

Simulating potential vegetation distribution in a mountainous region of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau:A case study of Barkam County

The main objective of this study is to simulate the potential vegetation types on the basis of environmental parameters.The paper took Barkam County in a mountainous region of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau as the study area.The vegetation distribution was mapped in 1994 and 2007 based on TM remote sensing images by object-oriented interpretation method.We overlaid the two maps to find out the vegetation patches which have not changed,and took them as stable types.Fifty per cent of the stable patches were randomly sampled to operate the logistic regression with related environmental parameters;others were used as test data of simulated results.Seven environmental parameters were mapped,including elevation,slope,aspect,surface curvature,solar radiation,temperature and precipitation,based on DEM data and meteorological site data by GIS technology.The relationship between the spatial distribution of vegetation and environmental variables were quantified by logistic regression.The distribution probabilities of each vegetation type were calculated.Finally,the spatial distribution of potential vegetation was simulated.This research can provide a scientific basis for vegetation restoration and ecological construction in this area.