Modelling the resilience of Australian savanna systems to grazing impacts.

Savannas occur across all of northern Australia and are extensively used as rangelands. A recent surge in live cattle exports to Southeast Asia has caused excessive grazing impacts in some areas, especially near watering points. An important ecological and management question is "how resilient are savanna ecosystems to grazing disturbances?" Resilience refers to the ability of an ecosystem to remain in its current state (resist change) and return to this state (recover) if disturbed. Resilience responses can be measured using field data. These responses can then be modelled to predict the likely resistance and recovery of savannas to grazing impacts occurring under different climatic conditions. Two approaches were used to model resilience responses. First, a relatively simple mathematical model based on a sigmoid response function was used. This model proved useful for comparing the relative resilience of different savanna ecosystems, but was limited to ecosystems and conditions for which data were available. Second, a complex process model, SAVANNA, was parameterised to simulate the structure and function of Australian savannas. Simulations were run for 50 years at two levels of grazing to evaluate resistance and then for another 50 years with no grazing to evaluate recovery. These runs predicted that savanna grasslands were more resistant to grazing (changed less) than red-loam woodlands, which recovered relatively slowly from grazing impacts. The SAVANNA model also predicted that these woodlands would recover slightly slower under the climate change scenario projected for northern Australia.     

Aspects of the uptake of radionuclides by sheep grazing on an estuarine saltmarsh. 1. The influence of grazing behaviour and environmental variability on daily intake

Sea water contaminated with diluted radioactive effluent originating from the Sellafield reprocessing plant inundates saltmarshes in the Esk estuary in west Cumbria (UK). Much of the radioactivity on the saltmarsh vegetation was found to be associated with a surface deposit of silt, brought onto the area during tidal inundation. Large temporal variations in the radionuclide concentrations of the vegetation were found, these being due probably to seasonal fluctuation in the extent of silt deposition.The grazing habits of sheep were studied on one of these saltmarshes and the consequent ingestion of radionuclides by the sheep was estimated. The sheep ingested different quantities of radionuclides according to time of year as a result of a combination of two factors; the considerable temporal variation in the concentration of radionuclides on the saltmarsh vegetation and the seasonal grazing behaviour of the sheep.     

Periphyton grazing and phosphorus excretion by mollusks

The physiological activity of grazers related to feeding, assimilation, and excretion may either increase or decrease the productivity of algae in a periphyton community, depending on the size of the consumer and its population density. Population data on the numbers and biomass of Anisus spp. have been used to calculate the amount of mineral phosphorus per unit area regenerated in the medium through animal metabolism. No difference in the rate of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) excretion has been found between pulmonates and the bivalve Sphaerium suecicum.     

Using the Q10 model to simulate E. coli survival in cowpats on grazing lands

Microbiological quality of surface waters can be affected by microbial load in runoff from grazing lands. This effect, with other factors, depends on the survival of microorganisms in animal waste deposited on pastures. Since temperature is a leading environmental parameter affecting survival, it indirectly impacts water microbial quality. The Q₁₀ model is widely used to predict the effect of temperature on rates of biological processes, including survival. Objectives of this work were to (i) evaluate the applicability of the Q₁₀ model to Escherichia coli inactivation in bovine manure deposited on grazing land (i.e., cowpats) and (ii) identify explanatory variables for the previously reported E. coli survival dynamics in cowpats. Data utilized in this study include published results on E. coli concentrations in natural and repacked cowpats from research conducted the U.S. (Virginia and Maryland), New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Inspection of the datasets led to conceptualizing E. coli survival (in cowpats) as a two-stage process, in which the initial stage was due to growth, inactivation or stationary state of the population and the second stage was the approximately first-order inactivation. Applying the Q₁₀ model to these datasets showed a remarkable similarity in inactivation rates, using the thermal time. The reference inactivation rate constant of 0.042 (thermal days)^− 1 at 20 °C gave a good approximation (R² = 0.88) of all inactivation stage data with Q₁₀ = 1.48. The reference inactivation rate constants in individual studies were no different from the one obtained by pooling all data (P < 0.05). The rate of logarithm of the E. coli concentration change during the first stage depended on temperature. Duration of the first stage, prior to the first-order inactivation stage and the initial concentration of E. coli in cowpats, could not be predicted from available data. Diet and age are probable factors affecting these two parameters however, until their environmental and management predictors are known, microbial water quality modeling must treat them as a stochastic source of uncertainty in simulation results.     

Modelling the trade-off between fire and grazing in a tropical savanna landscape, northern Australia.

As savannas are widespread across northern Australia and provide northern rangelands, the sustainable use of this landscape is crucial. Both fire and grazing are known to influence the tree-grass character of tropical savannas. Frequent fires open up the tree layer and change the ground layer from perennials to that dominated by annuals. Annual species in turn produce copious quantities of highly flammable fuel that perpetuates frequent, hot fires. Grazing reduces fuel loads because livestock consumes fuel-forage. This trade-off between fire and grazing was modelled using a spatially explicit, process-orientated model (SAVANNA) and field data from fire experiments performed in the Victoria River District of northern Australia. Results of simulating fire (over 40 years) with minimal or no grazing pressure revealed a reduction in the shrub and woody plants, a reduction in grasses, and no influence on the tree structure given mild fires. While mature trees were resistant to fire, immature trees, which are more likely associated with the shrub layer, were removed by fire. The overall tree density may be reduced with continual burning over longer time periods because of increasing susceptibility of old trees to fire and the lack of recruitment. Increases in stocking rates created additional forage demands until the majority of the fuel load was consumed, thus effectively suppressing fire and reverting to the grazing and suppressed fire scenario where trees and shrubs established.     

Aspects of the uptake of radionuclides by sheep grazing on an estuarine saltmarsh. 2. Radionuclides in sheep tissues

The transfer ¹³⁷Cs, ²³⁸Pu, ^239/240Pu and ²⁴¹Am to sheep which graze a saltmarsh in the Esk estuary, 7 km south of the sellafield reprocessing plant in west Cumbria (UK), has been estimated.The concentrations of gamma-emitting radionuclides and of ²³⁸Pu, ^239/240Pu and ²⁴¹Am were measured in liver, lung, muscle, kidney and bone from saltmarsh ewes and lambs. ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in the soft tissues were similar in liver, lung and muscle but were consistently higher in kidney and much lower in bone. The highest concentration of the transuranics was found in liver.Transfer coefficients and concentration factors were calculated for both ewes and lambs. The concentration of ¹³⁷Cs in the tissues of 5-month old lambs was higher than in those of their mothers. Therefore, a higher transfer coefficient was obtained for lamb muscle (1·8 × 10^?1 d kg^?1) than for ewe muscle (6·4 × 10^?2 d kg^?1). Concentration factors were consistently higher for ¹³⁷Cs than for the transuranics.     

Study on Simulating Spatial Distribution and Varying Patterns of Urumqi＇s Population

In this paper, an approach to simulate the spatial distribution of urban population is proposed using urban land use and population statistical data through the geographical information systems （GIS）. Then, the spatial population distribution of Urumqi as a case is simulated by the approach mentioned above and its varying patterns are analyzed by the raster population surface. As a result, producing raster population surface is more accurate and natural than the traditional choropleth map of population density. Concerning the spatial population distribution of Urumqi, the population density declines from south to north and the population distribution mainly presents＇ ＂T-type＂, the population distribution presents multicentre agglomeration and the population distribution of the districts shows different features. The population density varies significantly with the increase in the distance from central business district （CBD）. Finally, it is found in this paper that the development history of districts, terrain and traffic road are main factors that have an influence Urumqi＇s population distribution. This paper tries to provide more accurate population data for the plan and management of urban land, traffic and public facilities in order to enrich the researches on urban population distribution.     

Study on Simulating Spatial Distribution and Varying Patterns of Urumqi's Population

Abstract

In this paper, an approach to simulate the spatial distribution of urban population is proposed using urban land use and population statistical data through the geographical information systems (GIS). Then, the spatial population distribution of Urumqi as a case is simulated by the approach mentioned above and its varying patterns are analyzed by the raster population surface. As a result, producing raster population surface is more accurate and natural than the traditional choropleth map of population density. Concerning the spatial population distribution of Urumqi, the population density declines from south to north and the population distribution mainly presents “T-type”, the population distribution presents multi-centre agglomeration and the population distribution of the districts shows different features. The population density varies significantly with the increase in the distance from central business district (CBD). Finally, it is found in this paper that the development history of districts, terrain and traffic road are main factors that have an influence Urumqi's population distribution. This paper tries to provide more accurate population data for the plan and management of urban land, traffic and public facilities in order to enrich the researches on urban population distribution.     

Simulating mesoscale transport and diffusion of radioactive noble gases using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model

In order to simulate the impact of mesoscale wind fields and to assess potential capability of atmospheric Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) as an emergency response model for the decision supports, two different simulations of LPDM with the mesoscale prognostic model MM5 (Mesoscale Model ver. 5) were driven. The first simulation of radioactive noble gas ((85)Kr exponent) emitted during JCO accident occurred from 30 September to 3 October 1999 at Tokai, Japan showed that the first arriving short pulse was found in Tsukuba located at 60km away from the accidental area. However, the released radioactive noble gas was transported back to the origin site about 2 days later due to the mesoscale meteorological wind circulation, enhancing the levels of (85)Kr with the secondary peak in Tsukuba. The second simulation of atmospheric dilution factors (the ratio of concentration to the emission rate, chi/Q), during the underground nuclear test (UNT) performed by North Korea showed that high chi/Q moved to the eastward and extended toward southward in accordance with the mesoscale atmospheric circulations generated by mesoscale prognostic model MM5. In comparison with the measurements, the simulated horizontal distribution patterns of (85)Kr during the JCO are well accord with that of observation in Tsukuba such as the existence of secondary peak which is associated with the mesoscale circulations. However, the simulated level of (85)Kr anomaly was found to be significantly lower than the observations, and some interpretations on these discrepancies were described. Applications of LPDM to two mesoscale emergency response dispersion cases suggest the potential capability of LPDM to be used as a decision support model provided accurate emission rate of accident in case of a large accident.     

红壤丘陵区土壤有机碳储量模拟

土壤的有机碳蓄积量及其动态变化,不仅是维持农业生产可持续发展的重要因素,而且在全球变化碳循环研究中具有重要地位.本文基于GIS技术和DNDC模型,以江西省余江县为例,模拟研究了典型红壤丘陵区不同土地利用方式下的土壤有机碳储量及其变化.结果表明:余江县表层土壤有机碳储量为3.52×109 kg,平均土壤有机碳密度为4.24 kg m-2.不同利用方式中,灌溉水田的土壤有机碳密度最高,其次是望天田、园地、林地和菜地,旱地的较低,草地的最低.该县土壤有机碳库的年度变化量为8.63×107 kg, 变化率为+2.45%.土壤有机碳密度下降的地区多位于农田区内,特别是旱地,部分灌溉水田的碳密度略有增加,林地、园地、草地的土壤有机碳密度是增加的,其中园地的增幅最大.在不考虑土壤流失的情况下,自然植被覆盖下的土壤碳截留能力强于农业植被下的土壤,但是灌溉、施肥、种植绿肥等保护性农业措施可以减少土壤碳的损失,甚至增加有机碳的储量.     

Simulating transport of non-Chernobyl (137)Cs and (90)Sr in the North Atlantic-Arctic region

The spatial and temporal distributions of the anthropogenic radionuclides (137)Cs and (90)Sr, originating from nuclear bomb testing and the Sellafield reprocessing plants in the Irish Sea, are simulated using a global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The physical model is forced with daily atmospheric re-analysed fields for the period 1950 to present. Comparison of temporal evolution of observed and simulated concentrations of (137)Cs have been conducted for the regions east of Scotland, west of central Norway and at the entrance of the Barents Sea. It follows that the radionuclides from the Sellafield discharge reach the Barents Sea region after 4-5 years, in accordance with observations. The simulation provides a detailed distribution and evolution of the radionuclides over the integration time. For the Atlantic waters off the coast of Norway and in the southern Barents Sea, the atmospheric fallout dominates over the Sellafield release up to the mid 1960s and from the early 1990s, whereas Sellafield is the main source for the two radionuclides in the 1970s and 1980s. It is furthermore argued that model systems like the one presented here can be used for future prediction of radioactive contaminations in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean, for instance under various global warming scenarios.     

Formation and degradation of meadows under the impact of hay harvesting and grazing in the Vychegda and Pechora floodplains

Transformation of meadow communities under the impact of hay harvesting and livestock grazing has been studied in the floodplains of the Vychegda and Pechora rivers. Changes in the floristic composition, structure, and productivity of meadows have been evaluated using synanthropization and adventization indices. On this basis, meadow phytocenoses at three different stages of pasture digression have been distinguished.     

Long-term studies on transfer of 137Cs from soil to vegetation and to grazing lambs in a mountain area in northern Sweden

Studies were made during 1990-1997 on the transfer of 137Cs from soil to vegetation (herbage) and to grazing lambs on a mountain farm with an uncultivated grazing area of about 10 km2. The farm is situated in an area in Northern Sweden which was contaminated by the Chernobyl fallout in 1986. The mean concentration of 137Cs in the soil to a depth of 10 cm for eight sampling sites observed in the 8-year period was 14.51 kBq/m2, while in the cut herbage the average concentration was 859 Bq/kg d.w. and in lamb meat 682 Bq/kg w.w. A slow vertical migration of 137Cs in the 0-10 cm soil layer was indicated. Although the 137Cs concentration in herbage gradually decreased, the concentration in lamb meat varied from year to year. Soil ingestion by the lambs as a pathway for activity transfer was shown to be negligible, while ingestion of fungi with high concentrations of 137Cs was demonstrated to occur, as large numbers of fungi spores were counted in samples of the lambs' faeces. Fungi ingestion might therefore partly explain the varying mean yearly 137Cs concentrations in lamb muscle. The mean transfer parameters were as follows: for "soil to herbage" 61.3 Bq/kg d.w. herbage per kBq/m2 soil, for "herbage to lamb meat" 0.81 Bq/kg w.w. meat per Bq/kg d.w. herbage, and for "soil to lamb meat" 47.1 Bq/kg w.w. meat per kBq/m2 soil. A trend of decreasing values of the transfer parameter for "soil to herbage" indicated that 137Cs was becoming less available for root-uptake with time. The effective ecological half-life of 137Cs in soil, herbage and lamb meat was calculated to be 19, 7 and 16 years, respectively. It can be concluded that natural areas are vulnerable to 137Cs contamination, resulting in high concentrations in plants, fungi and lamb meat for a long time.     

Sea bottom management in Japan

Cleanup of polluted sediment in several Japanese ports and harbors is descrbed. Cleanup is preceded by detailed examination of sediment and organism chemical concentrations. When Japanese government tentative standards for mercury, cadmium, or oganics are exceeded in these compartments of the environment, steps are taken to eliminate the pollution problem. Results or pollution countermeasures at Tokuyama-Kudamatsu port (mercury pollution) and Hachinohe port (organic pollution) are described in detail. Future research needs include the establishment of more refined and realistic sediment standards, detailed surveys of organic pollution in Japanese bays and inland seas, and addressing the persistent problem of eutrophication in these areas.     

Effects of grazing and fencing on carbon and nitrogen reserves in plants and soils of alpine meadow in the three headwater resource regions

Knowledge about carbon and nitrogen in plants and soils and response to fence and graze in alpine ecosystems is still rudimentary because of extremely geographic situation. The purpose of this study was to compare the difference among carbon, nitrogen concentration, and content of unit area and dynamics of above- and below-ground biomass, soil organic carbon and total nitrogen between fencing and grazing alpine meadow. The results showed that total carbon and C: N radio in the aboveground tissue were significantly higher in fenced and ungrazing grassland (FU) than those in free grazing grassland (FG). In addition, the order of total carbon and nitrogen concentration of aboveground tissue of different function groups were not identical between them; The total carbon storage (TCS) per unit of aboveground tissue, roots and 0–30 cm soil layer increased after being fenced for 5 years from free grazing grassland (9255.17 g/m²) to fenced and ungrazing grassland (12637.10 g/m²) by 26.79%. The corresponding total nitrogen storage (TNS) increased by 751.42 g/m². Furthermore over 95% TCS (TNS) come from 0–30 cm soil layer. However there were no significant differences between fenced and ungrazing grasslands of 10 years and 5 years. Therefore fenced to exclude grazing by Tibetan sheep and yaks was an alternative approach to sequester C to the soil in alpine meadow systems.     

Simulating the effects of urbanization,afforestation and cropland abandonment on a regional carbon balance: a case study for Central Germany

The newly developed model system HILLS is used to simulate recent (1990–2000) and future (up to 2020) changes in land use and carbon sequestration over Central Germany. HILLS is unique as that it integrates the spatially explicit land-use-change model LUC-Hesse with the dynamic ecosystem model Century under a GIS platform. With this new tool, the concurrent effects of urbanization, afforestation and cropland abandonment on regional carbon sequestration are analyzed for an exemplary “Business as Usual” scenario. During the simulation period, afforestation was estimated to sequester 880 Gg C and cropland abandonment 783 Gg C. Urbanization was estimated to release 336 Gg C formerly stored in soil organic matter and thereby offsets about 20% of the C sequestered by cropland abandonment and afforestation. The case study shows that urbanization can partly counteract the benefits of carbon sequestration resulting from other land-use changes and should be investigated in other carbon balances.     

Simulating spatial pattern of urban growth using GIS-based SLEUTH model: a case study of eastern corridor of Tehran metropolitan region,Iran

Tehran metropolitan region (TMR) has experienced rapid urbanization in the last few decades. This accelerating urbanization trend mainly arising from high natural population growth and rural–urban migration along with rapid socioeconomic changes formed unplanned and uncontrolled urban expansion in peri-urban areas and resulted in degrading environmental quality and considerable changes in the urban landscapes of the TMR. Thus, the main objective of this research is to model spatial pattern of urban growth in eastern corridor of TMR using GIS-based SLEUTH model and the prediction of future developments of the region from 2014 to 2060. The SLEUTH is one of the most powerful models for urban growth modeling. This model analyzes the spatial pattern of urban growth based on historical data obtained from satellite images of 1987, 2003, 2011, and 2014. The results indicate that the most important factors affecting the urban growth are slope resistance and road gravity. The slope resistance is the highest coefficients value, which illustrates the limiting influence of the slopes on general trend of urban growth in eastern corridor of the TMR. The road gravity stands in second place where it displaces orientation of linear form of outlying pattern alongside the transportation network; it represents that the main pattern of urban growth in peri-urban areas of the region have a linear nature and edge expansion due to slope resistance and road-influenced growth, while spread, diffusion, and breed coefficients display low probability of new spreading center and spontaneous growth in the study area. In addition, the prediction of urban growth for 2020–2060 revealed that urban expansion which was 41,500 ha in 2014 will increase to 179,400 ha in 2060 with noticeable growth rate of 145.6 %. Comparing study area and other researches indicate that the urban growth happens in high rate in eastern corridor. One of the main reasons of this growth goes back to the formation of the second homes for residents of Tehran metropolitan city.