Rehabilitation: strategic, proactive, flexible, risky?

Rehabilitation after armed conflict is a direct intellectual descendant of thinking about rehabilitation after natural calamity. It is related, generally, to poverty reduction and, operationally, to associated action at the micro level. This history has limited its strategic conceptualisation and, in particular, its links with reconciliation and state re-legitimation and also with macro-economic stabilisation and renewed growth. In post-war--or more generally, a lull in conflict with the potential to become permanent--a country's rapid, focused, prioritised action within a strategic framework is urgent. It is not risk-free for political and natural disasters as well as for those with economic and social bases. Flexibility, learning from initial experience and asking intended household beneficiaries about their needs in advance can reduce risk as can pre-positioning of contingency or standby resources to avert post-war calamities (for example, drought, flood) and catastrophes (renewed violence) from delaying and discrediting rehabilitation efforts.     

The political economy of complex emergency and recovery in northern Ethiopia

During the 1980s Ethiopia experienced the effects of conflict, drought and famine on a scale far greater than many CPEs elsewhere. In May 1991, after the decisive defeat of the military dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam by the Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and after decades of civil war, drought and famine, Ethiopia faced the prospects of peace and of much needed development. This paper explores both Ethiopia's experience of conflict and humanitarian intervention in areas of Tigray held by the Tigray Peoples' Liberation Front (TPLF) during the 1980s, and its experience of post-conflict rehabilitation and reconstruction in the 1990s. It first deals with the roots of the conflicts within Ethiopia: political marginalisation, heavy state intervention and highly extractive relations between state and peasants, inappropriate and failed development policies, ethnic identity and the politicisation of ethnicity. The Mengistu regime's counter-insurgency measures are then contrasted with the policies and programmes of the TPLF, Ethiopia's most effective opposition movement and the leading element in the EPRDF, and its achievements in mobilising popular support: its establishment of democratically elected structures of local governance and its famine relief distribution programme.     

Matching response to context in complex political emergencies: 'relief', 'development', 'peace-building' or something in-between?

There is an ongoing debate over the value and pitfalls of the policy and practice of 'linking relief and development' or 'developmental relief' in aid responses to complex political emergencies (CPEs). Driven by concerns about relief creating dependence, sometimes doing harm and failing to address root causes of emergencies despite its high cost, pursuit of both relief and development has become a dominant paradigm among international aid agencies in CPEs as in 'natural' disasters. In CPEs a third objective of 'peace-building' has emerged, along with the logic that development can itself help prevent or resolve conflict and sustain peace. However, this broadening of relief objectives in ongoing CPEs has recently been criticised on a number of counts, central concerns being that it leads to a dilution of commitment to core humanitarian principles and is overly optimistic. This paper addresses these issues in the light of two of the CPEs studied by the COPE project: Eritrea and Somalia/Somaliland. It is argued that the debate has so far suffered from lack of clarity about what we mean by 'relief', 'development' and, for that matter, 'rehabilitation' and 'peace-building'. The wide spectrum of possible aid outcomes does not divide neatly into these categories. The relief-development divide is not always as clear-cut, technically or politically, as the critics claim. Moreover such distinctions, constructed from the point of view of aid programmers, are often of little relevance to the concerns of intended beneficiaries. Second, there has been insufficient attention to context: rather than attempting to generalise within and across CPE cases, a more productive approach would be to examine more closely the conditions under which forms of aid other than basic life support can fruitfully be pursued. This leads to consideration of collective agency capacity to respond effectively to diverse needs in different and changing circumstances.     

Misanthropy Without Borders: The International Children's Rights Regime

The issue of children's rights has become key to human rights-based international security strategies. The UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (1989) is being operationalised in complex political emergencies. Children's rights now inform humanitarian principles. Universal concern for children is viewed as transcending political and social divides and able to mobilise societies to confront social problems and prevent war. The operationalisation of child rights is accompanied by the development of psycho-social programmes to rehabilitate the child victim. Critically analysing the implications of the children's rights regime for the right to self-determination, the paper unpacks the assumptions underlying children's rights and psycho-social intervention. The paper begins by examining the conceptualisation of the rights-holding subject universalised under the UN Convention and then goes on to consider Article 39 on the right to psycho-social intervention. Equally important as the novel conceptualisation of childhood and children's rights under the international children's rights regime is the (unspoken) mistrust of adulthood and political rights that informs the imperative to institutionalise children's rights as higher law. Moreover while the rights-based approach consciously sought to move away from the earlier moralising child-salvation model, psycho-social rehabilitation reveals a similar preoccupation with deviancy, but conducted through the paradigm of psychological functionalism. Rather than representing a trend towards more humane international relations, the paper suggests that the elevation of children's rights is premised on a profound disenchantment with humanity. The logical implication of the international children's rights regime is to challenge both the moral and political capacity of individuals and their right to self-determination and to institutionalise a more unequal international system.     

我国的主要气象灾害及其经济损失

自然灾害一直伴随着人类社会的生产、生活与发展,气象灾害尤甚,它们给人类社会造成的经济损失十分巨大。根据中国气象局资料统计,在各类自然灾害中,气象灾害大约占到70%以上。我国每年重大气象灾害影响的人口大约达4亿人次,所造成的经济损失大约占到国民生产总值的1%~3%。近半个世纪以来,发生在我国的重大气象灾害,受灾人口常高达数亿人次,造成的直接经济损失高达数千亿元。为此,对包括热带气旋、干旱、洪涝、低温冷冻和雪灾等我国的主要气象灾害及其经济损失的总体概况,进行了总结和归纳,可作为了解和认识我国气象灾害及其经济与社会影响的参考依据。     

The 2006 war and its inter-temporal economic impact on agriculture in Lebanon

The July 2006 war waged by Israel on Lebanon caused an estimated USD 1 billion of direct (financial) damage to infrastructure. However, it generated also significant indirect (economic/inter-temporal) costs. One sector that suffered considerably in this respect was agriculture, the main source of income for 30–40 per cent of Lebanese. This paper's main objective is to develop a methodology to estimate the total—direct and indirect—cost of the war to agricultural crop production, using an area of south Lebanon as a focal point. The indirect loss assessment viewed inter-temporal reductions in crop production values as the opportunity cost of not working fields due to the presence of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Various crops were evaluated for two scenarios (50 and 100 per cent damage due to UXO) over UXO-clearance periods of five and 10 years. The results indicate that any damage estimates that include only direct losses will under-estimate total losses by 80 and 87 per cent for the five- and 10-year periods, respectively.     

Reconciling reintegration: the complexity of economic and social reintegration of ex‐combatants in Burundi

The extent to which disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) programmes initiated by state or multilateral agencies can realise the reintegration of ex‐combatants remains debated. While some consider that DDR should have the ambition to result in long‐term reintegration, others argue that DDR should focus on short‐term goals. This paper explores experiences with the reintegration of ex‐combatants in Burundi. It shows the interconnectedness of economic and social reintegration processes, and demonstrates that the reintegration of ex‐combatants cannot be seen in isolation from the wider recovery and development context in which DDR is taking place. Moreover, the case demonstrates that reconciliation and social reintegration are deeply interconnected, to the extent that social reintegration may fail if reconciliation is not taken into account. Rather than a debate between long‐ and short‐term goals, the focus should therefore be on increasing the understanding of reintegration processes and finding ways in which programmes can contribute to those.     

The Prestige oil spill and its economic impact on the Galician fishing sector

The sinking of the Prestige oil tanker on 18 November 2002 off the coast of Galicia, Spain, had important economic, environmental and social ramifications. The aim of this paper is to carry out an initial analysis of the costs related to a halt in fishing activities in Galicia between November 2002 and December 2003. This involves three different steps: an assessment of the cost of the preventative and palliative measures introduced by Spanish public administrations (compensation for affected fishermen and shellfish fisherman); an indirect evaluation of the implications of the disaster (via a study of data on production); and a direct appraisal of the economic impact of the event (reduction in income), using questionnaires completed by a representative sample of fishermen and shellfish fisherman. The results obtained from these three methods of estimating losses are compatible. By December 2003, losses to the Galician fishing sector stood at an estimated EUR 76 million.     

Seeds and rights: new approaches to post-war agricultural rehabilitation in Sierra Leone

Based on preliminary findings of ongoing 'action research' in the war zone in central Sierra Leone, this paper shows how more equitable seed distribution could contribute to fostering a culture of human rights as well as to agricultural rehabilitation. Assessment of seeds-and-toosl programmes in 19 villages found that aid agency targeting and distribution modalities channelled inputs through village committees which denied assistance to intended beneficiary groups. Such distribution inequalities constitute violations of fundamental human rights, exacerbate grievance and division and maintain the threat of social disorder. The benefits and disadvantages of an alternative, more inclusive, rights-based approach to seed distribution are discussed, and preliminary results from the pilot phase of CARE's Rights-based Approach to Food Security Project are presented. Under this project, village-level peace and rights days are held to allow villagers to debate the vulnerabilities that facilitated the war and to elaborate on local notions of human rights. In symbolising new beginnings, seed can be seen as a useful medium through which to debate a more inclusive--and ultimately less vulnerable--society.     

2003年黑龙江省的洪涝灾害及其社会经济影响

根据2003年嫩江、松花江流域洪涝灾害的详细调查资料。分析了洪涝形成的过程和特点，阐述了洪涝灾害对黑龙江省国民经济和粮食生产、工业交通、水利设施及人民生活等方面的影响。     

The rationality of resistance: alternatives for engagement in complex emergencies

The different conceptualisations of conflict in the complex emergency literature have profound implications on the perception of the agency of different groups and the prospects for conflict management. While much recent analysis has focused on the rational political and economic functions of violence, relatively little analysis has focused on why the majority of people chose not to resort to violence. Using Foucault's analysis of power relations, a new framework for conflict analysis is proposed which includes non-violent resistance as well as violence as a means of domination. Non-violent resistance is explored as a rational, highly adaptable response to acts of domination. A comprehensive understanding of conflict must recognise local forms of resistance and identify the barriers and opportunities for the engagement of the international humanitarian community with these groups. This engagement can be used to foster capacities for the creation of legitimate, inclusive, non-violent political and economic processes in the attempt to provide alternatives for everyone in the conflict. If the purpose of the study of complex emergencies is to understand the nature of various conflicts and, based on that understanding, make recommendations for possible routes to conflict management, the analysis of local resistance and efforts to foster it must become a major aspect of the research agenda.     

Analysing economic impact on interdependent infrastructure after flood: Pakistan a case in point

A disaster such as floods can have a drastic impact on interdependent infrastructure and economic sectors. The resilience or the ability of the critical sector to recover quickly from the disruption can also reduce the consequences of the disaster. In this paper, through resilience and recovery time Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output model (DIIM) is applied. Thus, Input-Output (I-O) table is constructed for Pakistan's economic system and a case study is performed on the flooding in Pakistan 2011–12. The purpose of this study is to provide a ballpark estimate of the system-wide impact and ripple effect on the sectors that lasted for several days after the disruption. Furthermore, to analyze the inoperability and economic loss in the sectors caused by the disaster in a developing country. The findings of the research show that most of the critical sectors are associated with agriculture and service sector in terms of inoperability and economic loss respectively. The outcome of the study will be essential for the policy makers, disaster management authorities and health departments to respond accordingly.     

北京极端天气事件及其与区域气候变化的联系

应用逐日观测资料分析了北京极端天气事件的变化及其与区域气候变暖的可能联系，得到了如下结论：（1）近30多年来高温和闷热事件在增加，低温、大风、雷暴和大雾事件在减少，暴雨和沙尘暴的出现频率无明显的变化。（2）高温、闷热、低温、大风、雷暴和大雾存在着较强的年际变化，但不具有明显的周期性特征，暴雨和沙尘暴事件分别存在10年和8～10年的主周期变化。（3）年平均气温和高温、闷热、低温、大风等极端事件之间存在着较强的相关性，这些极端天气事件的变化与区域气候变暖关系密切。     

Women, Health and Humanitarian Aid in Conflict

The burden of political conflict on civilian populations has increased significantly over the last few decades. Increasingly, the provision of resources and services to these populations is coming under scrutiny; we highlight here the limited attention to gender in their provision. Women and men have different exposures to situations that affect health and access to health-care and have differential power to influence decisions regarding the provision of health services. We argue that the role of women in planning is central to the provision of effective, efficient and sensitive health-care to conflict-affected populations.     

The urban poor in Dhaka City: their struggles and coping strategies during the floods of 1998

Bangladesh experienced one of the worst floods in recorded history in 1998. This paper focuses on the needs and coping strategies of the urban poor in Dhaka City, which had been very badly affected. The city's roads were completely under water, and most areas were water-logged with drainage and sewage systems blocked. Rising water levels compelled many slum dwellers to move to temporary shelters and relief camps. Women and children were the worst affected. The lack of sanitation facilities and privacy forced women and children to defecate in their own homes. There was an acute scarcity of safe drinking-water, and food prices rose dramatically. Diarrhoea, fever and colds were the most common illnesses affecting the poor. The floods left many of them unemployed, and in some families, the result was increased tension and incidents of domestic violence. In some areas, members felt pressured to repay micro-credit loans. Most NGOs, however, suspended loan repayments. During this period, a committee was set up to co-ordinate and work towards addressing some of the main post-flood problems.     

Conflict, camps and coercion: the ongoing livelihoods crisis in Darfur

This paper presents the findings of a study commissioned by World Food Programme (WFP) in early 2006 to enhance understanding of how the conflict in Darfur has affected livelihoods and markets, and of the effects of food aid. The livelihoods of many in Darfur were devastated early on in the conflict, principally through the widespread looting or destruction of assets and highly restricted population movements, which struck at the heart of pre-conflict livelihoods. Livelihood strategies for most people are now restricted, poorly remunerated and often associated with high risk of attack. Patterns of coercion and exploitation have also become entrenched; and markets and trade, the lifeblood of Da fur's economy pre-conflict, severely disrupted. Against this backdrop the impact of food aid on livelihoods in Darfur has been overwhelmingly positive. The paper proposes a number of preconditions for investment in recovery in Darfur, and recommends ways in which livelihoods can be supported in the current context of ongoing conflict.     

Aid in the midst of plenty: oil wealth, misery and advocacy in Angola

This paper examines advocacy initiatives by humanitarian and human rights organisations to address problems of governance in resource-rich and conflict-affected countries, focussing on the case of Angola. Humanitarian principles preclude the use of indiscriminate conditionality and point towards a cautious approach to advocacy aimed at assisting vulnerable populations. Furthermore, the relatively insignificant amount of aid supplied to resource-rich local authorities means that individual agencies have precious little leverage, especially when commercial interests rather than humanitarian or 'good governance' principles influence the priorities of bilateral donors. A context of resource wealth calls for: high levels of coordination and cooperation between human rights groups, aid agencies and donors; balanced use of conditionality, based on the drawing, by donors, of a clear distinction between emergency and development-oriented assistance; and a sustained effort to highlight the responsibilities of local authorities, foreign governments and businesses in meeting humanitarian and development objectives.     

Guatemala: violence in peacetime--a critical analysis of the armed conflict and the peace process

The recent history of Guatemala is interpreted here using an interdisciplinary approach inspired by recent development and conflict studies. The author reflects on his experience in peace-building activities and uses a combination of primary and secondary sources to present the Guatemalan war as a complex political emergency. The first part (a methodological introduction) proposes an analytical framework, taking into account both the root causes and the different functions of violence, in order to achieve a better understanding of contemporary conflicts. In the second and central part of the article, the integrated framework is applied to Guatemala, trying to understand causes and functions of war and negotiation and underlining the existence of structural obstacles to a lasting peace. The conclusions are dedicated to policy implications: if the signing of peace accords represents only a step towards negative peace, the condition for a lasting peace is a strategy for reconciliation and development based on social participation and social justice.     

Estimating the economic,social and environmental impacts of wildfires in Australia

It is often said that bushfires are a fact of life in Australia. While Australian communities will always be affected by the impacts of bushfires, there is an element of human involvement that makes at least some bushfires avoidable. In Australia more bushfires are started by deliberate lighting than are caused by lightning or other natural sources. This creates an element of criminality in relation to bushfires which includes the establishment of bushfire arson as a serious criminal offence. The author presents a motive-based typology of deliberately lit bushfires and argues that a greater understanding of the reasons why people light bushfires can help prevention, investigation and treatment of offenders.     

Present and future economic impacts of climate extremes in the United States

Recent studies have yielded definitive information about the nation's economic impacts from extreme climates, although some sectoral values rely on educated estimates since hard data does not exist. Review of existing measures of the national impacts from weather—climate conditions reveals annual average losses of $36 billion from extremes and gains averaging $26 billion when conditions are favorable (good growing seasons, mild winters, etc.). Comparison of these values with various measures of the national economy reveals that the impacts are relatively small, typically about 1% of the Gross Domestic Product and less than 2% of the federal budget. The current impact information provides a basis for assessing various estimates of the nation's financial impacts resulting from a future climate change due to global warming. Most such estimates predict values similar to the magnitude of current climate impacts. Moreover, most economists attempting such estimates express a large degree of uncertainty about their projections.