Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Current Farming Locations of Striped Catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus; Sauvage) in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

In Vietnam, culturing striped catfish makes an important contribution to the Mekong Delta’s economy. Water level rise during rainy season and salt intrusion during dry season affect the water exchange and quality for this culture. Sea level rise as a consequence of climate change will worsen these influences. In this study, water level rise and salt water intrusion for three sea level rise (SLR) scenarios (i.e., +30, +50, and +75 cm) were simulated. The results showed that at SLR +50, the 3-m-flood level would spread downstream and threaten farms located in AnGiang, DongThap and CanTho provinces. Rising salinity levels for SLR +75 would reduce the window appropriate for the culture in SocTrang and BenTre provinces, and in TienGiang’s coastal districts. Next to increasing dikes to reduce the impacts, the most tenable and least disruptive option to the farming community would be to shift to a salinity tolerant strain of catfish.     

Recent Change in the Extent of Mangroves in the Northern Gulf of Papua,Papua New Guinea

Existing at the interface of land and sea, in regions of low topographic relief, mangroves are likely to be some of the first ecosystems that undergo spatial modification due to sea-level rise. The mangrove ecosystems of the Gulf of Papua New Guinea are some of the largest and most pristine in the Asia–Pacific region; they have not been subject to clearance for crustacean farming nor suffered from land reclamation projects. This article establishes through analysis of a time series of aerial photography and satellite imagery from the period 1973–2007, that there have been substantial changes in the distribution of mangroves in this region. These changes include the seaward progradation of the Purari Delta and the regression of the Kikori Delta by an average of 43 m year⁻¹ at its most seaward point. While these findings are likely to be continuations of long-term trends, it is probable that they can be explained by a variety of interacting factors including climate change, sea-level rise, subsistence in the northern Gulf of Papua and changes in sediment dynamics.     

Contamination of marine fauna by chlordecone in Guadeloupe: evidence of a seaward decreasing gradient

Chlordecone is an organochlorine pesticide, used in the Lesser Antilles from 1972 to 1993 to fight against a banana weevil. That molecule is very persistent in the natural environment and ends up in the sea with runoff waters. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the level of contamination in several trophic groups of marine animals according to their distance from the source of pollution. Samples of suspended matter, macroalgae, herbivorous fishes, detrivorous crustaceans, zooplanktivorous fishes, first- and second-order of carnivorous fishes, and piscivorous fishes have been collected in two sites, located downstream the contaminated sites (Goyave and Petit-Bourg), in three marine habitats (coastal mangroves, seagrass beds located 1.5 km from the shoreline, and coral reefs at 3 km offshore). Animals collected in mangroves were the most contaminated (mean concentrations 193 μg kg^?1 in Goyave and 213 μg kg^?1 in Petit-Bourg). Samples from seagrass beds presented intermediate concentrations of chlordecone (85 μg kg^?1 in Goyave and 107 μg kg^?1 in Petit-Bourg). Finally, samples from coral reefs were the less contaminated (71 μg kg^?1 in Goyave and 74 μg kg^?1 in Petit-Bourg). Reef samples, collected 3 km offshore, were two to three times less contaminated than those collected in mangroves.     

A yearly maximum sea level simulator and its applications: A Stockholm case study

A yearly maximum sea level simulator for Stockholm is presented. The simulator combines extreme sea level estimates and mean sea level rise projections into a joint probabilistic framework. The framework can be used, for example, to assess the risk that new structures placed at the current minimum allowed height above the sea level can become flooded in the future. Such assessments can be used to underpin future building free levels, which would be a great improvement over the much more arbitrary criteria in use today. Another strong point of the framework is that it can be used to quantify the influence of uncertainties in mean sea level projections, estimates of sea level extremes and future emission scenarios on the risk of flooding. For Stockholm mean sea level uncertainty is found to be much more important than extreme sea level uncertainty. The framework is also set-up to test adaptation measures. It is found that protections that are built once the mean sea level has risen above some given threshold can be very efficient. Lastly, the framework is embedded into a simple decision problem that can be used to calculate risk/reward ratios for land development as a function of height above today’s mean sea level.     

Should Swedish sea level planners worry more about mean sea level rise or sea level extremes?

Current coastal spatial planning in Sweden uses simple methods to account for how flood risks increase owing to sea level rise. Those methods, however, fail to account for several important aspects of sea level rise, such as: projection uncertainty, emission scenario uncertainty and time dependence. Here, enhanced methods that account for these uncertainties are applied at several locations along the coast. The relative importance of mean sea level rise and extreme events for flood risk is explored for different timeframes. A general conclusion for all locations is that, extreme events dominate the flood risk for planning periods lasting a few decades. For longer planning periods, lasting toward the end of the century, the flood risk is instead dominated by the risk of high sea level rise. It is argued that these findings are important for assessments of future flood risk, and that they should be reflected in coastal spatial planning.     

Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective

Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.     

Monitoring a changing Arctic: Recent advancements in the study of sea ice microbial communities

Sea ice continues to decline across many regions of the Arctic, with remaining ice becoming increasingly younger and more dynamic. These changes alter the habitats of microbial life that live within the sea ice, which support healthy functioning of the marine ecosystem and provision of resources for human-consumption, in addition to influencing biogeochemical cycles (e.g. air–sea CO₂ exchange). With the susceptibility of sea ice ecosystems to climate change, there is a pressing need to fill knowledge gaps surrounding sea ice habitats and their microbial communities. Of fundamental importance to this goal is the development of new methodologies that permit effective study of them. Based on outcomes from the DiatomARCTIC project, this paper integrates existing knowledge with case studies to provide insight on how to best document sea ice microbial communities, which contributes to the sustainable use and protection of Arctic marine and coastal ecosystems in a time of environmental change.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01658-z.     

Vulnerability to climate variability and change in East Timor

This paper presents the results of a preliminary study of climate vulnerability in East Timor. It shows the results of projections of climate change in East Timor. The country's climate may become hotter, drier, and increasingly variable. Sea levels are likely to rise. The paper then considers the implications of these changes on three natural resources--water, soils, and the coastal zone--and finds all to be sensitive to changes in climate and sea level. Changes in the abundance and distribution of these resources is likely to cause a reduction in agricultural production and food security, and sea-level rise is likely to damage coastal areas, including Dili, the capital city.     

Turning the Tide: How Blue Carbon and Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) Might Help Save Mangrove Forests

In this review paper, we aim to describe the potential for, and the key challenges to, applying PES projects to mangroves. By adopting a “carbocentric approach,” we show that mangrove forests are strong candidates for PES projects. They are particularly well suited to the generation of carbon credits because of their unrivaled potential as carbon sinks, their resistance and resilience to natural hazards, and their extensive provision of Ecosystem Services other than carbon sequestration, primarily nursery areas for fish, water purification and coastal protection, to the benefit of local communities as well as to the global population. The voluntary carbon market provides opportunities for the development of appropriate protocols and good practice case studies for mangroves at a small scale, and these may influence larger compliance schemes in the future. Mangrove habitats are mostly located in developing countries on communally or state-owned land. This means that issues of national and local governance, land ownership and management, and environmental justice are the main challenges that require careful planning at the early stages of mangrove PES projects to ensure successful outcomes and equitable benefit sharing within local communities.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0530-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Acid–base physiology response to ocean acidification of two ecologically and economically important holothuroids from contrasting habitats,Holothuria scabra and Holothuria parva

Sea cucumbers are dominant invertebrates in several ecosystems such as coral reefs, seagrass meadows and mangroves. As bioturbators, they have an important ecological role in making available calcium carbonate and nutrients to the rest of the community. However, due to their commercial value, they face overexploitation in the natural environment. On top of that, occurring ocean acidification could impact these organisms, considered sensitive as echinoderms are osmoconformers, high-magnesium calcite producers and have a low metabolism. As a first investigation of the impact of ocean acidification on sea cucumbers, we tested the impact of short-term (6 to 12 days) exposure to ocean acidification (seawater pH 7.7 and 7.4) on two sea cucumbers collected in SW Madagascar, Holothuria scabra, a high commercial value species living in the seagrass meadows, and H. parva, inhabiting the mangroves. The former lives in a habitat with moderate fluctuations of seawater chemistry (driven by day–night differences) while the second lives in a highly variable intertidal environment. In both species, pH of the coelomic fluid was significantly negatively affected by reduced seawater pH, with a pronounced extracellular acidosis in individuals maintained at pH 7.7 and 7.4. This acidosis was due to an increased dissolved inorganic carbon content and pCO₂ of the coelomic fluid, indicating a limited diffusion of the CO₂ towards the external medium. However, respiration and ammonium excretion rates were not affected. No evidence of accumulation of bicarbonate was observed to buffer the coelomic fluid pH. If this acidosis stays uncompensated for when facing long-term exposure, other processes could be affected in both species, eventually leading to impacts on their ecological role.     

Offshore windmill farms: threats to or possibilities for the marine environment

A massive development of offshore windmill farms has been planned along the European coastline. This raises important questions about the possible effects on the marine environment. Effects during the construction period may be minimized to a negligible impact if care is taken to avoid areas containing rare habitats or species. Disturbance caused by noise, vibrations, and electromagnetic fields during windmill operation may, with present knowledge, be considered to be of minor importance to the marine environment. The reef effect (i.e. addition of a hard substratum), is believed to cause the largest impact on the marine environment and at different scales: the micro scale, which involves material, texture, and heterogeneity of the foundation material; the meso scale, which involves the revetments and scour protection; and the macro scale, which encompasses the level of the entire windmill farm. Effects on these scales are discussed in relation to results obtained from natural habitats, artificial reefs, and other man-made constructions at sea.     

Historical decline in coral reef growth after the Panama Canal

The Panama Canal is near its vessel size and tonnage handling capacity, and Panamanians have decided to expand it. The expansion of the Canal may consider the historical long-lasting impacts on marine coastal habitats particularly on sensitive coral reefs. These potential impacts were discussed during the national referendum as were other equally important issues, such as its effects on forests, watersheds, and water supply. Coral growth rates provide a direct measure of coral fitness and past environmental conditions comparable to analyses of tree rings. We examined stable isotopes, metal geochemical tracers, and growth rates on a century-long (1880-1989) chronology based on 77 cores of the dominant reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea collected near the Caribbean entrance to the canal. Our results showed a gradual decline in coral growth unrelated to changes in sea surface temperature but linked to runoff and sedimentation to coastal areas resulting from the construction and operation of the Panama Canal.     

An entitlement approach to the challenges of mangrove management in El Salvador

This paper summarizes those factors that have contributed to the degradation of the mangroves in El Salvador, and examines the implications of proposed changes in property rights to the mangroves for poor coastal communities. Current patterns of extraction and conversion in the mangrove ecosystem in El Salvador can be viewed through an entitlement lens that confers property right upon some actors, for certain uses, and denies them to others. Unfortunately, the present system of laws and regulations that governs resource use in the mangroves is contradictory and confusing. A number of laws currently are active that give entirely different directives about the use and transformation of the ecosystem. The rational and sustainable management of the mangroves cannot be secured without a redefinition of entitlement rights. This redefinition of entitlements, however, should take into account the needs of those whose livelihoods are intimately connected to the health of the ecosystem.     

Estimating the change of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere from 18 000 BP to present using a carbon cycle model

The authors used a global High Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM), consisting of a biome model and a carbon cycle model, to estimate the changes of carbon storage in the major pools of the terrestrial biosphere from 18 000 BP to present. The climate change data to drive the biosphere for 18 000 BP were derived from an Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Using the AGCM anomalies interpolated to a 0.5 degrees grid, the HRBM data base of the present climate was recalculated for 18 000 BP. The most important processes which influenced the carbon storage include (1) climate-induced changes in biospheric processes and vegetation distribution, (2) the CO(2) fertilization effect, (3) the inundation of lowland areas resulting from the sea level rise of 100 m. Two scenarios were investigated. The first scenario, which ignored the CO(2) fertilization effect, led to total carbon losses from the terrestrial biosphere of -460 x 10(9) t. Scenario 2, which assumed that the model formulation of the CO(2) fertilization effect as used for preindustrial to present could be extrapolated to the glacial 200 microl litre(-1) (ppmv, parts per million per volume), gave a carbon fixation in the terrestrial biosphere of +213 x 10(9) t. The two scenarios were compared with CO(2) concentration data and isotopic ratios from air in ice cores. The results of Scenario 1 are not in agreement with the data. Scenario 2 gives realistic delta(13)C shifts in the atmosphere but the biospheric carbon storage at the end of the glacial period seems too large. The authors suggest that the low atmospheric CO(2) concentration may have favoured the C-4 plants in ice age vegetation types. As a consequence the influence of the low CO(2) concentration was eventually reduced and the glacial carbon storage in vegetation, litter, and soil was increased.     

Redox potential characterization and soil greenhouse gas concentration across a hydrological gradient in a Gulf coast forest

Soil redox potential (Eh), concentrations of oxygen (O2) and three greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O) were measured in the soil profile of a coastal forest at ridge, transition, and swamp across a hydrological gradient. The results delineated a distinct boundary in soil Eh and O2 concentration between the ridge and swamp with essentially no overlap between the two locations. Critical soil Eh to initiate significant CH4 production under this field conditions was about +300 mV, much higher than in the homogenous soils (about -150 mV). The strength of CH4 source to the atmosphere was strong for the swamp, minor for the transition, and negligible or even negative (consumption) for the ridge. Maximum N2O concentration in the soils was found at about Eh +250 mV, and the soil N2O emission was estimated to account for less than 4% for the ridge and transition, and almost negligible for the swamp in the cumulative global warming potential (GWP) of these three gases. The dynamic nature of this study site in response to water table fluctuations across a hydrological gradient makes it an ideal model of impact of future sea level rise to coastal ecosystems. Soil carbon (C) sequestration potential due to increasing soil water content upon sea level rise and subsidence in this coastal forest was likely limited and temporal, and at the expense of increasing soil CH4 production and emission.     

Aral Sea basin: a sea dies, a sea also rises

The thesis of this article is quite different from many other theses of papers, books, and articles on the Aral Sea. It is meant to purposely highlight the reality of the situation in Central Asia: the Aral Sea that was once a thriving body of water is no more. That sea is dead. What does exist in its place are the Aral seas: there are in essence three bodies of water, one of which is being purposefully restored and its level is rising (the Little Aral), and two others which are still marginally connected, although they continue to decline in level (the Big Aral West and the Big Aral East). In 1960 the level of the sea was about 53 m above sea level. By 2006 the level had dropped by 23 m to 30 m above sea level. This was not a scenario generated by a computer model. It was a process of environmental degradation played out in real life in a matter of a few decades, primarily as a result of human activities. Despite wishes and words to the contrary, it will take a heroic global effort to save what remains of the Big Aral. It would also take a significant degree of sacrifice by people and governments in the region to restore the Big Aral to an acceptable level, given that the annual rate of flow reaching the Amudarya River delta is less than a 10th of what it was several decades ago. Conferring World Heritage status to the Aral Sea(s) could spark restoration efforts for the Big Aral.     

Monitoring anthropogenic sewage pollution on mangrove creeks in southern Mozambique: a test of Palaemon concinnus Dana, 1852 (Palaemonidae) as a biological indicator

Tropical coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves, have a great ecological and socioeconomic importance for adjacent systems and local populations, but intensive environmental impact monitoring is still lacking, mainly in East Africa. This study evaluated the potential anthropogenic disturbance on Palaemon concinnus population structure and fitness. Palaemon concinnus populations from one peri-urban (domestic sewage impacted) and two pristine mangrove creeks were studied by sampling nearly 100 shrimps per location every 15 days for 12 months. The shrimps at the peri-urban location were larger, experienced longer reproductive periods, presented higher proportion of ovigerous females and better embryo quality when compared with shrimps inhabiting pristine locations. Physiological indices (RNA/DNA ratio) were similar between shrimps at pristine and peri-urban mangroves. However, a higher level of parasitation by a Bopyridae isopod, Pseudione elongata indicated some degree of stress on the host at the peri-urban mangrove, with potential effects on the host population dynamics.     

Climate change influence on POPs distribution and fate: a case study

Climate change has the potential of affecting the behaviour and distribution of organic pollutants, including POPs. Direct effects of climate change, like temperature increase, modification of wind and precipitation patterns, sea level rise, snow and ice cover, may be very effective in altering the partitioning of POPs among the environmental compartments. Other consequences of future climate scenarios may imply the alteration of degradation rates, soil properties (and hence land use), air-particle partitioning of chemicals and so forth. A case study is here presented to illustrate the major implications of climate change on the long term at the local scale. A dynamic multimedia model was applied to selected PCB and PCDD/F congeners to simulate the effects of climate change on their distribution and fluxes over the next 50 y in the Venice Lagoon (Italy). Different climate change scenarios were tested, finding noticeable variations in POPs concentration even for minor environmental changes. PCBs and PCDFs environmental concentrations may differ by a factor two in a moderate climate change scenario, compared to a situation with stable climate over the next 50 y. However, model results also suggest that if global warming may have the potential of reducing the environmental levels of these chemicals, it would probably enhance their mobility and hence their potential for long range atmospheric transport.     

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Climate change and sea level rise urge low-lying countries to draft adaption policies. In this context, we assessed whether, to what extent and when the Netherlands’ current flood risk management policy may require a revision. By applying scenarios on climate change and socio-economic development and performing flood simulations, we established the past and future changes in flood probabilities, exposure and consequences until about 2050. We also questioned whether the present policy may be extended much longer, applying the concept of ‘policy tipping points’. Climate change was found to cause a significant increase of flood risk, but less than economic development does. We also established that the current flood risk management policy in the Netherlands can be continued for centuries when the sea level rise rate does not exceed 1.5 m per century. However, we also conclude that the present policy may not be the most attractive strategy, as it has some obvious flaws.     

The economic impact of sea-level rise on nonmarket lands in Singapore

Sea-level rise, as a result of climate change, will likely inflict considerable economic consequences on coastal regions, particularly low-lying island states like Singapore. Although the literature has addressed the vulnerability of developed coastal lands, this is the first economic study to address nonmarket lands, such as beaches, marshes and mangrove estuaries. This travel cost and contingent valuation study reveals that consumers in Singapore attach considerable value to beaches. The contingent valuation study also attached high values to marshes and mangroves but this result was not supported by the travel cost study. Although protecting nonmarket land uses from sea-level rise is expensive, the study shows that at least highly valued resources, such as Singapore's popular beaches, should be protected.