How long can fisheries management delay action in response to ecosystem and climate change?

Sustainable management of fisheries is often compromised by management delaying implementation of regulations that reduce harvest, in order to maintain higher catches in the short-term. Decreases or increases in fish population growth rate driven by environmental change, including ecosystem and climate change, affect the harvest that can be taken sustainably. If not acted on rapidly, environmental change could result in unsustainable fishing or missed opportunity for higher catches. Using simulation models of harvested fish populations influenced by environmental change, we explore how long fisheries managers can afford to wait before changing harvest regulations in response to changes in population growth. If environmental change causes population declines, delays greater than five years increase the probability of population collapse. Species with fast and highly variable population growth rates are more susceptible to collapse under delays and should be a priority for revised management where delays occur. Generally, the long-term cost of delay, in terms of lost fishing opportunity, exceeds the short-term benefits of overfishing. Lowering harvest limits and monitoring for environmental change can alleviate the impact of delays; however, these measures may be more costly than reducing delays. We recommend that management systems that allow rapid responses to population growth changes be enacted for fisheries management to adapt to ecosystem and climate change.     

Can marine mammals be used to monitor oceanographic conditions?

The breeding performance of higher predators has often been used to monitor fluctuations in the abundance of important prey stocks in marine ecosystems. The development of electronic data-loggers in recent years has also provided the opportunity of using wide-ranging marine animals to measure physical oceanographic conditions. In this study, time–depth recorders (TDRs) programmed to record temperature were deployed on female Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) at Bird Island, South Georgia (54°00′S; 38°02′W) during the breeding seasons 1994 to 1998. Temperature sensors had relatively slow response times, and thermal radiation errors occurred during the day when seals spent a large proportion of their time at the surface. Nevertheless, measurements provided temperature–depth profiles which were typical of the vertical stratification of the ocean. During the early stages of a foraging trip temperature increased, suggesting that fur seals travelled northwards from South Georgia towards the warmer waters of the Polar Front. In addition, higher temperatures were recorded by females that remained at sea for longer, implying that these individuals also travelled further. Mean sea-surface temperature (SST) increased from ∼1 to 4 °C from December to March and agreed with SSTs from ship, buoy and satellite. Future studies on marine mammals which combine satellite tracking with oceanographic measurements are likely to provide valuable information on biophysical aspects of the ocean. Received: 16 June 1998 / Accepted: 13 February 1999     

Can climate mitigation help the poor? Measuring impacts of the CDM in rural China

This study examines whether investment in climate change mitigation contributes to poverty alleviation. We investigate the impacts of the renewable energy-based clean development mechanism (RE-CDM) projects on rural communities in China. The impacts of RE-CDM projects are estimated by combining propensity score matching with the difference-in-differences approach. We found that the biomass-based CDM projects significantly contribute to income improvement and employment generation in rural communities in China. Our estimation results also reveal that wind energy-based CDM projects have the potential to increase income and the share of labor force in the primary industry in rural areas. These results suggest different channels through which renewable energy sources affect income.     

Exploring local stakeholders’ perceptions of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Ebro delta

This paper analyzes local stakeholders’ perception of the effects of, and vulnerability to, climate change in the case of the Ebro delta (NW Mediterranean Sea). The specific survey carried out amongst relevant local stakeholders showed a high level of concern about the current and future effects of climate change on the physical and socio-economic structures of the Ebro delta. The results of the survey also showed that there is a general agreement on the lack of social and political awareness of the problems that climate change can create in the delta in the near future, as well as a lack of adaptation strategies (only suggested or already being implemented). Finally, the conclusions of the study mainly rely on the different adaptation strategies proposed by previous studies. If any of these strategies is to be developed, there is a clear need for a firm will - from the local, regional and national political authorities and stakeholders - that should allow the development of a new manner of governance that until now it has not been possible to develop in the Ebro delta.     

Can faecal glucocorticoid metabolites be used to monitor body condition in wild Upland geese Chloephaga picta leucoptera?

The measurement of faecal glucocorticoid metabolites is used as a non-invasive technique to study stress in animal populations. They have been used most widely in mammals, and mammalian studies have also treated issues such as sample stability and storage methods. In birds, faecal corticosterone metabolite (CM) assays have been validated for a small number of species, and adequate storage under field conditions has not been addressed explicitly in previous studies. Furthermore, while it is well-established that baseline plasma corticosterone levels in birds rise with declining body condition, no study so far investigated if this relationship is also reflected in faecal samples. We here present data of a field study in wild Upland geese Chloephaga picta leucoptera on the Falkland Islands, testing different storage methods and investigating the relationship of faecal CM concentrations to body condition and reproductive parameters. We found that faecal CM measures are significantly repeatable within individuals, higher in individuals with lower body condition in both male and female wild Upland geese and higher in later breeding females with smaller broods. These results suggest that measuring faecal CM values may be a valuable non-invasive tool to monitor the relative condition or health of individuals and populations, especially in areas where there still is intense hunting practice.     

Dramatic declines in mussel bed community diversity: response to climate change?

Mussel beds along the wave-exposed coast of the eastern North Pacific Ocean serve as an important habitat, harboring a high diversity of species. A comparison of California mussel bed community diversity in 2002 to historical data (1960s to 1970s) revealed large declines (mean loss 58.9%), including some declines >141 species (approximately 80% loss). Concurrent work revealed inconsistent changes in mussel populations (biomass and bed thickness) along the California coast, suggesting that diversity declines may be related to large-scale processes rather than local habitat destruction. Potential factors causing declines in mussel community diversity are discussed, with regional climate change associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and climate change induced alterations of ecological interactions and biological processes suggested as likely causes. Although extensive literature has predicted the potential effects of climate change on global diversity, this study is one of the few examples of declines attributed to climate change.     

Models-as-usual for unusual risks? On the value of catastrophic climate change

We study the role of intertemporal preference representations in a model of economic growth, stock pollutant and endogenous risk of catastrophic collapse. We contrast two polar instances of risk-sensitive preferences: the traditional “discounted utility” model, which imposes a positive rate of pure time preference and risk neutrality with respect to intertemporal utility, and multiplicatively separable preferences, which display risk aversion in that dimension but no pure time preferences. We show that both representations of preferences can rationalize the same economy when there is no collapse risk associated with pollution. Once we introduce a collapse risk whose hazard rate depends on the pollution stock, multiplicatively separable preferences are associated with a much higher value of catastrophic risk reduction, and a more stringent policy response. A relatively high discount rate may thus be compatible with large emissions abatement in the face of a low probability large impact event, reflecting preferences for catastrophic risk reduction.     

Can incomplete information lead to under-exploitation in the commons?

This paper analyzes the protection of a common pool resource (CPR) through the management of information. Specifically, we examine an entry deterrence model between an incumbent perfectly informed about the initial stock of a CPR and an uninformed potential entrant. In our model, the appropriation of the CPR by the incumbent reduces both players' future profits from exploiting the resource. In the case of complete information, we show that the incumbent operating in a high-stock common pool overexploits the CPR during the first period since it does not internalize the negative external effect that its first-period exploitation imposes on the entrant's future profits. This inefficiency, however, is absent when the commons totally regenerate across periods. Under incomplete information, we identify an additional form of inefficiency. In particular, the incumbent operating in a low-stock CPR underexploits the resource in order to signal the low available stock to potential entrants, deterring entry.     

Bioaccumulation of potentially toxic elements within the soil–plant system in Central Balkan region: analysis of the forest ecosystem capacity to mediate toxic elements

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - The accumulation of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in terrestrial ecosystems has become a global concern, as PTEs may exert a wide range of negative...     

Can incomplete information lead to under-exploitation in the commons?

This paper analyzes the protection of a common pool resource (CPR) through the management of information. Specifically, we examine an entry deterrence model between an incumbent perfectly informed about the initial stock of a CPR and an uninformed potential entrant. In our model, the appropriation of the CPR by the incumbent reduces both players' future profits from exploiting the resource. In the case of complete information, we show that the incumbent operating in a high-stock common pool overexploits the CPR during the first period since it does not internalize the negative external effect that its first-period exploitation imposes on the entrant's future profits. This inefficiency, however, is absent when the commons totally regenerate across periods. Under incomplete information, we identify an additional form of inefficiency. In particular, the incumbent operating in a low-stock CPR underexploits the resource in order to signal the low available stock to potential entrants, deterring entry.     

Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change?

Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (5 degrees C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970-1982. However, when the models for the 1970-1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences.     

Can leftovers from predators be reliably used to monitor marine turtle hatchling sex-ratios? The implications of prey selection by ghost crabs

In marine turtles, the sex of an individual is determined by temperatures experienced during embryonic development. Gonad histological observation is still the only reliable way to determine hatchling sex, hampering the study of reproduction and of the demographic consequences of context-dependent sex-ratios, a subject of interest in a warming planet. We investigated whether hatchling remains from predation by Ocypode cursor can be used to estimate sex-ratio trends in a green turtle rookery at Poilão, Guinea-Bissau (10°52′N, 15°43′W). Sex could be readily determined in 77 and 79% of the predated hatchlings in 2008 and 2009, respectively. By comparing hatchlings killed by crabs, hatchlings accidentally dying on the reefs, and live hatchlings, we show that ghost crabs select the smaller prey, but do not select according to hatchling sex, which is explained by the lack of hatchling size dimorphism in this population. The proportion of male hatchlings was 0.45 ± 0.06 and 0.15 ± 0.06 for early and late-season clutches, respectively, these differences most likely being explained by rainfall. Using leftovers from predation by crabs may be a good solution to non-invasively monitor broad trends in sex-ratios of sea turtles.     

Does the choice of climate baseline matter in ecological niche modelling?

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have multiple applications in ecology, evolution and conservation planning. They relate the known locations of a species to characteristics of its environment (usually climate) over its geographical range. Most ENMs are trained using standard 30-year (1961-1990) or 50-year (1951-2000) baselines to represent current climate conditions. Species occurrence records used as input to the models, however, are frequently collected from time periods that differ from those from which the climate is derived. Since climate variability can be significant within and outside baselines, and the distributions of some plants and animals (e.g., annual plants, insects) can adjust to environmental conditions on much shorter time scales, this mismatch between collection records and climatic baselines may affect the utility and accuracy of model outputs. We investigated how the choice of baseline periods influenced modelling efforts, anticipating that climate baselines derived from the same temporal period as the species records would yield improved ENMs. Ten simulated species’ distributions were modelled using an ENM (Maxent) for (a) occurrences and climates within the same temporal period, based on eighteen 10-year baselines within the 20th century and (b) all available samples and climate baselines from 1951-2000 and 1961-1990. Each model was projected onto all the available 10-year climate scenarios and compared to the models trained on the corresponding scenario. We show that temporal mismatches of species occurrences and climate baselines can result in significantly poorer distribution models. Such temporal mismatch may be unavoidable for many studies, but we emphasize here the need to match the time range of samples and climate data whenever possible.     

Can the legacy of industrial pollution influence antimicrobial resistance in estuarine sediments?

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents a major global health threat, as well as a major hazard to sustainable economic development and national security. It remains, therefore, vital that current research aligns to policy development and implementation to alleviate a potential crisis. One must consider, for example, whether drivers of antibiotic resistance can be controlled in the future, or have they already accumulated in the past, whether from antibiotics and/or other pollutants? Unfortunately, industrial heritage and its pollution impact on the prevalence of environmental AMR have largely been ignored. Focussing on industrialised estuaries, we demonstrate that anthropogenic pollution inputs in addition to the natural diurnal environmental conditions can sufficiently create stressful conditions to the microbiome and thus promote selective pressures to shift the resistome (i.e., collection of resistance traits in the microbiological community). Unfortunately, the bacteria’s survival mechanisms, via co-selective pressures, can affect their susceptibility to antibiotics. This review highlights the complexity of estuarine environments, using two key contaminant groups (metals/toxic elements and polyaromatic hydrocarbons), through which a variety of possible chemical and biological pollutant stressors can promote the emergence and dissemination of antimicrobial resistance. We find compelling divers to call on more focused research on historically disrupted ecosystems, in propagating AMR in the real world.

     

Can decentralized planning really achieve first-best in the presence of environmental spillovers?

It is generally accepted that decentralized policy choice in the presence of interjurisdictional spillovers is inefficient. Strikingly, Ogawa and Wildasin (2009) find that in a model with heterogenous jurisdictions, interjurisdictional capital flows, and interjurisdictional environmental damage spillovers, decentralized planning outcomes are equivalent to that under a centralized planner. We first show the critical importance of two key assumptions (no retirement of capital, fixed environmental damages per unit of capital) in obtaining this result. Second, we consider a more general model allowing for capital retirement and abatement activities and show that the outcome of a decentralized market generally differs from the solution of a centralized planner?s social welfare-maximizing problem.     

Trees and rural households’ adaptation to local environmental change in the central highlands of Ethiopia

This study assesses the role of trees in adaptation strategies of rural households to local environmental change in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Change in tree cover was assessed by producing Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) maps using satellite remote sensing images, and household survey was conducted to generate socioeconomic data. The results show that tree cover has increased over the last 30 years, mostly in the form of eucalyptus woodlots around homesteads. Eucalyptus reportedly helps households pass through livelihood shocks and provide protection against negative effects of climate change and variability. Despite some concerns on the part of local agricultural experts that planting eucalyptus may affect future food production, farmers are converting their croplands into eucalyptus woodlots. We conclude that land use planning and proper allocation of land resource is important to improve local livelihoods while also supporting adaptation of communities to local environmental change in general and climate change in particular.     

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on ranges of vertebrate species endemic to the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau over 40 years

Over the past 40 years, the climate has been changing and human disturbance has increased in the vast Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). These 2 factors are expected to affect the distribution of a large number of endemic vertebrate species. However, quantitative relationships between range shifts and climate change and human disturbance of these species in the QTP have rarely been evaluated. We used occurrence records of 19 terrestrial vertebrate species (birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles) occurring in the QTP from 1980 to 2020 to quantify the effects of climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the distribution of these 4 taxonomic groups and estimated species range changes in each species. The trend in distribution changes differed among the taxonomic groups, although, generally, ranges shifted to central QTP. Climate change contributed more to range variation than human disturbance (the sum of the 4 climatic variables contributed more than the sum of the 4 human disturbance variables for all 4 taxonomic groups). Suitable geographic range increased for most mammals, amphibians, and reptiles (+27.6%, +18.4%, and +27.8% on average, respectively), whereas for birds range decreased on average by 0.9%. Quantitative evidence for climate change and human disturbance associations with range changes for endemic vertebrate species in the QTP can provide useful insights into biodiversity conservation under changing environments.     

Can synchronous spawning be predicted from environmental parameters? A case study of the lugworm Arenicola marina

The annual epidemic spawning period of a Scottish population of Arenicola marina (L.) has been recorded over a period of 13 yr. This population spawns between mid-October and mid-November in a discrete spawning event over a period of 4 to 5 d. Endocrine manipulation experiments showed that spawning is induced in females only if sufficient titres of PMH (prostomial maturation hormone) are present in the prostomia. These levels are attained during the 2 to 3 wk prior to the natural spawning date. The East Sands, St. Andrews population always spawns during periods of spring tides regardless of tidal amplitude or whether they are full- or new-moon tides. Meteorological data, including sea-temperature data were collected for each year, and correlation of the environmental data with spawning time was attempted. Correlation of spawning times with weather patterns showed that mean daily air pressures were significantly higher during the spawning period than from September to November as a whole. Evidence also suggests that a reduction in sea temperature is required prior to spawning. A significant moderate negative correlation was found between May to July air temperatures and spawning date, suggesting that higher May to July temperatures may induce early spawning. Daily rainfall and wind speed were also lower during the spawning period, but not significantly so. These results indicate that air pressure (or changes therein) may act as a final spawning cue, and the advantages of this are discussed in relation to fertilization success. A model of the interplay between environmental parameters and the endocrine mechanisms controlling the induction of spawning is proposed. Higher than average summer temperatures may advance gametogenesis to bring the population into a state of maturity (full-size oocytes, well-developed sperm morulae), and may also advance spawning time. Once the population has completed gametogenesis, a drop in sea temperature is then required to trigger an increase in endocrine titres within the prostomium, without which spawning cannot be induced by prostomial injection. The population spawns on spring tides; however a lack of clement weather coinciding with the spring tide will result in population-wide spawning being aborted, as in 1996. Clement weather (high pressure, low rainfall and wind speed) in conjunction with spring tides permits spawning to proceed to completion. Received: 21 June 1999 / Accepted: 25 January 2000