Dealing with uncertainty in the assessment of human exposure to radioactivity in food and the environment

This paper presents an overview of the approach used to assess radiation dose and risk to members of the public from radioactivity in food and the environment. It describes uncertainties in the process and suggests ways of dealing with them to improve the risk assessment process. It also explains how uncertainty in the assessed dose/risk can be communicated to non-expert audiences such as members of the public. The issues covered in this paper apply to risk assessment of any contaminant and not only radioactivity.     

Environmental impact assessment of manufacturing processes using a combinatorial mathematics based decision making method

This paper presents a methodology for environmental impact assessment of manufacturing processes using a combinatorial mathematics based decision making method. An ‘environmental impact assessment index’ is proposed that evaluates and ranks the manufacturing processes for producing a given engineering product or component. The index is obtained from an ‘environmental impact assessment factors function’ considering environmental impact assessment factors and their relative importance for the considered application. An example is included to illustrate the approach.     

Ranking Canadian universities: a quantitative approach for sustainability assessment using uD-SiM

This paper introduces a model that enables a comparison between universities based on sustainability indicators related to environmental, economic, social and educational aspects. The proposed model is based on a driving force-pressure-state-exposure-effect-action (DPSEEA) framework and is called uncertainty-based DPSEEA-Sustainability index Model (uD-SiM). The uD-SiM applies the concept of causality and develops sustainability index (SI), which is an outcome of nonlinear relationships of sustainability indicators in different stages of DPSEEA. In this paper, this fuzzy-based multi-criteria decision-making model is used to evaluate the sustainability of five Canadian universities, namely the University of British Columbia, the University of Toronto, the University of Alberta, the McGill University and the Memorial University. The final ranking results are compared with the Green report card ranking for 2010 through SI. The application of various actions and strategies that can be applied to different stages of the framework to improve sustainability in higher education institutions is also discussed.     

Participatory scenario development for integrated sustainability assessment

The paper discusses the role of visions within sustainability assessment and governance for sustainable development in Europe. Currently, our societies (still) develop along an unsustainable path, which results in a number of persistent problems (climate change, loss of biodiversity, poverty, etc.). Integrated sustainability assessment (ISA) is one approach designed to initiate transitions towards sustainability. Visions of a sustainable future form an important part of ISA. These visions support the process of discussing how the transition from today’s societies/systems to a sustainable future can be achieved. According to the principles of ISA, visions should be developed in a participatory way, thus including the ideas and perceptions of stakeholders, decision-makers, experts and/or citizens. The paper starts with an introduction of the concepts of visions and scenarios and describes exemplary methods for their participatory development. Then, the main concepts for integrated sustainability assessment in comparison with other impact assessments are discussed. The main body of the paper presents experiences in three projects (ARTEMIS, ALARM, ECOCHANGE) in which visions and scenarios of sustainable futures were developed with stakeholders. The paper concludes with lessons learned and suggestions for future applications for participatory scenario development.     

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: scenarios for integrated assessment

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors.

Procedures for estimation of modelling uncertainty in air quality assessment

The main objectives of this work focus, firstly, on a review of the current existent methodologies to estimate air quality modelling uncertainty, and, secondly, in the preparation of guidelines for modelling uncertainty estimation, which can be used by local and regional authorities responsible for air quality management. From the application exercise, it was concluded that it is possible to define a subset of statistical parameters able to reproduce the general uncertainties estimation. Concerning the quality indicators defined by EU directives, the results show that the legislated uncertainty estimation measures are ambiguous and inadequate in several aspects, mainly in what concerns the error measures for hourly and daily indicators based on the highest observed concentration. A relative error at the percentile correspondent to the allowed number of exceedances of the limit value was suggested and tested, showing that is a more robust and appropriate parameter for model performance evaluation.     

Reverse logistics network design: a conceptual framework for decision making

Reverse logistics play a significantly increased role in supply chains. Producers are incorporating reverse logistics into their supply chain design because of governmental legislation, economic benefits from product recovery, and customers' demands for better environmental practices. Motivated producers face two main challenges in reverse logistics network design: (1) how do you build product recovery activities into traditional forward logistics networks? and (2) how do you manage the impact of uncertainty in the reverse logistics supply chain? Moreover, producers need to consider many tradeoffs leading to efficient network design. Published case studies have discussed these tradeoffs, and we describe a framework to evaluate these tradeoff considerations. We then apply the framework to three new case studies: medical device refurbishing, municipal e‐waste recycling, and carpet fibre recycling.     

A hybrid model for remanufacturing facility location problem in a closed-loop supply chain

Traditional supply chain design is merely based on the open loop or forward flow of materials, neglecting reverse flow for recovery of materials despite the recent concerns of customers and governments about environmental and production cost reductions. New supply chain design should be closed loop which implements traditional supply chain concepts with reverse flow or a material recovery system to reduce production cost and enhance customer satisfaction about environmental consciousness and to meet legal requirements. In our research, we designed a closed-loop supply chain which consists of recovery options such as collection centres and remanufacturing plants (reverse flow) in addition to traditional supply chain tiers (forward flow), and tried to find the best location for these facilities in a discrete space based on decision makers' opinions. Since there are uncertainties about decision parameters in an uncapacitated facility location problem, we implemented the fuzzy TOPSIS method to solve the location decision problem and find the best place to locate a remanufacturing facility.     

An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Greece in the near future

Climate changes in the Mediterranean region, related to a significant increase in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns, can potentially affect local economies. Agriculture and tourism are undoubtedly the most important economic sources for Greece and these may be more strongly affected by changing future climate conditions. Climate change and their various negative impacts on human life are also detected in their environment; hence this study deals with implications, caused by changing climate, in urban and forest areas. Potential changes for the mid-twenty-first century (2021–2050) are analysed using a high-resolution regional climate model. This paper presents relevant climatic indices, indicative for potential implications which may jeopardise vital economic/environmental sectors of the country. The results provide insights into particular regions of the Greek territory that may undergo substantial impacts due to climate change. It is concluded that the duration of dry days is expected to increase in most of the studied agricultural regions. Winter precipitation generally decreases, whereas an increase in autumn precipitation is projected in most areas. Changing climate conditions associated with increased minimum temperatures (approximately 1.3°C) and decreased winter precipitation by 15% on average suggest that the risk for forest fires is intensified in the future. In urban areas, unpleasantly high temperatures during day and night will increase the feeling of discomfort in the citizens, while flash floods events are expected to occur more frequently. Another impact of climate change in urban regions is the increasing energy demand for cooling in summer. Finally, it was found that continental tourist areas of the Greek mainland will more often face heatwave episodes. In coastal regions, increased temperatures especially at night in combination with high levels of relative humidity can lead to conditions that are nothing less than uncomfortable for foreigners and the local population. In general, projected changes associated with temperature have a higher degree of confidence than those associated with precipitation.     

Adapting to climate change: an integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$ 2.3 to US $7.4 billion during 2003?C2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ??no-regret?? adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.     

Integrated Simulation and Modelling Approach to Decision Making and Environmental Protection

This paper's objective is first to test the application of computer simulation and modelling tools in investigating the effects of applying sustainable manufacturing practices in a smelter plant, and second, to prove quantitatively and visually that 'sustainibility is free'. A simulation model is built to test and capture two different operating polices, 'Policy 1' and 'Policy 2', of an industrial system. In the case study, the simulation model is designed to reflect the effects of decision making in the activites found in a smelter plant, and to quantify the cost, sustainable and environmental consequences based on the decisions. Apart from providing a means of accurately measuring a system's performance, the purpose of using simulation tools is also to link the economic factors, such as productivity and total costs, as well as the sustainable factors, such as natural resource and energy consumption of a system. The simulation results prove quantitatively and visually that sustainability is not only 'free' but is, in fact, a far better proposition for economic growth in the medium to longer term than traditional forms of management.     

Bioeconomic modeling of farm household decisions for ex-ante impact assessment of integrated watershed development programs in semi-arid India

The increasing population and urbanization have serious implications for sustainable development in less-favoured areas of developing countries. In an attempt to sustain the long-term productivity of natural resources and to meet the food and non-food demands of growing population in the semi-arid tropics, the Indian government invests and promotes integrated watershed development programs. A comprehensive tool to assess the impacts of watershed development programs on both social well-being and sustainability of natural resource is currently lacking. In this study, we develop a watershed level bioeconomic model to assess the ex-ante impacts of key technological and policy interventions on the socioeconomic well-being of rural households and the natural resource base. These interventions are simulated using data from a watershed community in the semi-arid tropics of India. The model captures the interaction between economic decisions and biophysical processes and using a constrained optimization of household decision model. The interventions assessed are productivity-enhancing technologies of dryland crops and increased in irrigable area through water conservation technologies. The results show that productivity-enhancing technologies of dryland crops increase household incomes and also provided incentives for conserving soil moisture and fertility. The increase in irrigable area enables cultivation of high-value crops which increase the household income but also lead to an increase in soil erosion and nutrient mining. The results clearly indicate the necessity for prioritizing and sequencing technologies based on potential effects and trade-offs on household income and conservation of natural resources.     

Developing a sustainability assessment framework for integrated management of water resources systems using distributed zoning and system dynamics approaches

The management of large-scale water resources systems requires including of different stakeholders and users from municipal, agricultural, industrial and environmental sectors. This has baffled the process of decision making for integrated water resource systems. In such systems, the interactions between various stakeholders must be carefully taken into account with the goal of aggregating interests around the sustainability concept. In this study, first, the integrated water resources systems of Big Karun Watershed, Iran, have been modeled using the system dynamics approach. The system dynamics model represents the interactions between different components of the system, including water transfer projects, dams, urban, industry, agriculture and fish farming, and environmental demands. Vensim software has been used for the system dynamics modeling. Vensim simulates the dynamics behavior of the sub-systems and overall performance of the system by comparing the current operation policies with the future management scenarios. A wide range of performance indices, such as quantitative and qualitative water stress, income, cost, and productivity, have been used here to represent different aspects of sustainability goals. Finally, the performance of the systems has been evaluated by developing a sustainability index using distributed zoning model in order to identify proper management policies for this watershed. The results indicate that downstream users demand cannot be fully met by solely considering inter-basin water transfer and agricultural development projects. The sustainable and integrated management of the whole system ties into enhancement in both infrastructure systems and the operation of the whole system. It is expected that the sustainability of the basin improves if a water market schema exists and the gained money would be used to enhance the efficiency of existing irrigation networks.

     

Environmental risk assessment of metals: tools for incorporating bioavailability

In this paper, some of the main processes and parameters which affect metal bioavailability and toxicity in the aquatic environment and its implications for metal risk assessment procedures will be discussed. It has become clear that, besides chemical processes (speciation, complexation), attention should also be given to physiological aspects for predicting metal toxicity. The development of biotic ligand models (BLMs), which combine speciation models with more biologically oriented models (e.g. GSIM), has offered an answer to this need. The various BLMs which have been developed and/or refined for a number of metals (e.g. Cu, Ag, Zn) and species (algae, crustaceans, fish) are discussed here. Finally, the potential of the BLM approach is illustrated through a theoretical exercise in which chronic zinc toxicity to Daphnia magna is predicted in three regions, taking the physico-chemical characteristics of these areas into account.     

From comparative risk assessment to multi-criteria decision analysis and adaptive management: recent developments and applications

Environmental risk assessment and decision-making strategies over the last several decades have become increasingly more sophisticated, information-intensive, and complex, including such approaches as expert judgment, cost-benefit analysis, and toxicological risk assessment. One tool that has been used to support environmental decision-making is comparative risk assessment (CRA), but CRA lacks a structured method for arriving at an optimal project alternative. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides better-supported techniques for the comparison of project alternatives based on decision matrices, and it also provides structured methods for the incorporation of project stakeholders' opinions in the ranking of alternatives. We argue that the inherent uncertainty in our ability to predict ecosystem evolution and response to different management policies requires shifting from optimization-based management to an adaptive management paradigm. This paper brings together a multidisciplinary review of existing decision-making approaches at regulatory agencies in the United States and Europe and synthesizes state-of-the-art research in CRA, MCDA, and adaptive management methods applicable to environmental remediation and restoration projects. We propose a basic decision analytic framework that couples MCDA with adaptive management and its public participation and stakeholder value elicitation methods, and we demonstrate application of the framework to a realistic case study based on contaminated sediment management issues in the New York/New Jersey Harbor.     

An integrated approach to the toxicity assessment of Irish marine sediments: validation of established marine bioassays for the monitoring of Irish marine sediments

This paper describes the ecotoxicological evaluation of marine sediments from three sites around Ireland representative of a range of contaminant burdens. A comprehensive assessment of potential sediment toxicity requires the consideration of multiple exposure phases. In addition to the evaluation of multi-exposure phases the use of a battery of multi-trophic test species has been advocated by a number of researchers as testing of single or few organisms may not detect toxicants with a specific mode of action. The Microtox(R) solid phase test (SPT) and the 10-d acute amphipod test with Corophium volutator were used to assess whole sediment toxicity. Porewater and elutriates were assessed with the Microtox(R) acute test, the marine prasinophyte Tetraselmis suecica, and the marine copepod Tisbe battagliai. Solvent extracts were assayed with the Microtox(R) and T. battagliai acute tests. Alexandra Basin was identified as the most toxic site according to all tests, except the Microtox(R) SPT which identified the Dunmore East site as being more toxic. However, it was not possible to correlate the observed ecotoxicological effects with a specific and/or class of contaminants based on sediment chemistry alone. Therefore porewaters found to elicit significant toxicity (Dunmore East and Alexandra Basin) with the test battery were selected for further TIE assessment with T. battalgiai and the Microtox(R) system. The results of this study have important implications for risk assessment in estuarine and coastal waters in Ireland, where, at present the monitoring of sediment and water quality is predominantly reliant on chemical analysis alone.     

Issues in reverse supply chains,part II: reverse distribution issues – an overview

In recent years, due to growing environmental concern, there has been an increasing attention to product take‐back, product recovery and the re‐distribution of end‐of‐life products. Reverse logistics (RL), which refers to the distribution activities involved in product returns, has recently received much attention because many companies are using it as a strategic tool to serve their customers; and can generate good revenue. The management of return flow usually requires a specialised infrastructure with special information systems for tracking and dedicated equipment for the processing of returns. An efficient reverse distribution structure may lead to a significant return on investment as well as a significantly increased competitiveness in the market. Therefore, the time seems to be right for a systematic overview of various issues that are arising in the context of reverse distribution. The main purpose of this paper is to review the literature on RL and suggest a classification based on reverse distribution issues. The result of this research provides a better understanding of the RL concept and outlines some future directions of research on modelling and analysis.     

Measuring future dynamics of genuine saving with changes of population and technology: application of an integrated assessment model

Theoretical and empirical studies have been conducted on the genuine saving (GS) based on neoclassical economic theory to assess sustainable development (SD). However, only market prices and statistical national accounts have been used in empirical studies due to limited data availability. The data availability limits to measure GS only in the past and current, causing a wide gap with theoretical results. In this paper, we propose computing GS using an integrated assessment model (IAM) as connected to the mainframe model of macroeconomy. This enables us to use shadow prices, rather than market prices, obtained through an IAM, which ensures substantial consistency among variables. An example would be endogenous capital–output ratio and the rate of TFP. Also, our indicator of GS is more comprehensive in that they now account for various resources, environmental degradation, and land use. Our simulation results, with a particular focus on GS with population change (GSn) and with technological change as well (GSnt), show a sustainable future for up to the end of the century thanks to declining population in the latter half of the century and technological progress, although GS without accounting for population and technology tend to be negative, driven by, among others, capital depreciation and net primary productivity degraded by land use.     

An integrated and quantitative vulnerability assessment for proactive hazard response and sustainability: a case study on the Chan May-Lang Co Gulf area,Central Vietnam

A natural factors-based approach was developed to examine proactive responses to hazards and improving sustainability on the Chan May-Lang Co Gulf area, Central Vietnam. The approach was based on a weight-of-evidence method within an integrated and quantitative vulnerability assessment in which the spatial relationship between a set of evidential factors (lithology, distance to the coastline, altitude, slope, aspect, drainage, wind speed during storms, and land use and cover) and a set of hazard locations was combined with the prior probability (total vulnerability) to obtain the posterior probability of hazard occurrence. The result showed that 44.3 % of the study area had high to very high total vulnerability, due to the high density of vulnerable objects and frequency of severe damage from typhoons, floods, landslides, and erosion. The result also demonstrated that the contribution of natural factors was directly proportional to total vulnerability in approximately 75 % of the study area, indicating a high dependence of vulnerability on natural factors. In the remaining areas, low contributions were found in the high and very high vulnerability areas dominated by high anthropogenic activities. In contrast, natural factors were important contributors to total vulnerability in areas characterized by dense vegetation, consolidated rocks, and altitude greater than 300 m, reflecting high natural resilience. The present study demonstrated that a proactive approach may provide appropriate measures to mitigate hazards and to increase the sustainability of the study area.