Addressing uncertainties in the ERICA Integrated Approach

Like any complex environmental problem, ecological risk assessment of the impacts of ionising radiation is confounded by uncertainty. At all stages, from problem formulation through to risk characterisation, the assessment is dependent on models, scenarios, assumptions and extrapolations. These include technical uncertainties related to the data used, conceptual uncertainties associated with models and scenarios, as well as social uncertainties such as economic impacts, the interpretation of legislation, and the acceptability of the assessment results to stakeholders. The ERICA Integrated Approach has been developed to allow an assessment of the risks of ionising radiation, and includes a number of methods that are intended to make the uncertainties and assumptions inherent in the assessment more transparent to users and stakeholders. Throughout its development, ERICA has recommended that assessors deal openly with the deeper dimensions of uncertainty and acknowledge that uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems. Since the tool is based on a tiered approach, the approaches to dealing with uncertainty vary between the tiers, ranging from a simple, but highly conservative screening to a full probabilistic risk assessment including sensitivity analysis. This paper gives on overview of types of uncertainty that are manifest in ecological risk assessment and the ERICA Integrated Approach to dealing with some of these uncertainties.     

An overview of the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising contaminants

The ERICA project (environmental risks from ionising contaminants: assessment and management, EC contract no. FI6R-CT-2004-508847) concluded with the publication of two main outputs: the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising radiation, of which also introduces the user to the second main output, the ERICA Tool, which is a software programme with supporting databases, that together with its associated help will guide users through the assessment process. More than 60 European scientists contributed to the ERICA Integrated Approach. In addition, a large number of experts, policy makers, and decision-makers in different areas have contributed views on the ERICA Integrated Approach and its associated Tool from the user's perspective, through participation in the End-Users Group set up under the ERICA project. Databases on transfer, dose conversion coefficients and radiation effects on biota have been developed specifically for the purpose of the Integrated Approach, and incorporated into, or interacting with, the Tool. Species sensitivity distributions of biological effects data have been performed and did not reveal, for chronic exposure, any statistical grounds for separation between terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems in terms of species sensitivity to radiation; on the basis of such analysis a universal screening dose rate criterion of 10 microGy h(-1) incremental dose rate is suggested for exiting the assessment procedure while being confident that environmental risks are negligible. This criterion is used for the two first tiers (conservative assessment with limited data requirement and various possibilities of incorporating user-defined parameter values, including the screening dose rate criterion) of the assessment methodology. Exposure situations of concern are carried through a third tier, making use of all relevant databases and with a number of issues and options listed to support and guide decision-making. This article provides an overview to the ERICA Integrated Approach, whereas further articles of this special issue describe in-depth different vital aspects of the Integrated Approach.     

Decision-making in environmental radiation protection: using the ERICA Integrated Approach

The ERICA Integrated Approach and its associated tool and databases provide a method by which the likely impact of radioactive discharges on the environment can be evaluated, see Fig. 1. The various factors, which should be taken into account when making decisions both during and after an assessment has been made, are discussed for each stage in the assessment process for a hypothetical case study. The assessment will demonstrate the issues associated with the decision-making process at Tiers 1 and 2 within the ERICA Tool and how they may vary. The case study, set in England, evaluates the environmental impact of radioactive substances released under authorisation in response primarily to conservation legislation, because of the need to demonstrate that no adverse impacts will occur on Natura 2000 sites as a result of the release of an authorised substance.     

Capability maturity models for offshore organisational management

The goal setting regime imposed by the UK safety regulator has important implications for an organisation's ability to manage health and safety related risks. Existing approaches to safety assurance based on risk analysis and formal safety assessments are increasingly considered unlikely to create the step change improvement in safety to which the offshore industry aspires and alternative approaches are being considered. One approach, which addresses the important issue of organisational behaviour and which can be applied at a very early stage of design, is the capability maturity model (CMM). The paper describes the development of a design safety capability maturity model, outlining the key processes considered necessary to safety achievement, definition of maturity levels and scoring methods. The paper discusses how CMM is related to regulatory mechanisms and risk based decision making together with the potential of CMM to environmental risk management.     

The ecological relevance of current approaches for environmental protection from exposure to ionising radiation

This paper discusses the current approaches to environmental protection from ionising radiation from an ecological perspective, highlighting the need to understand fully what we are trying to protect. Ecologically relevant endpoints for environmental protection are discussed along with the need to integrate protection from ionising radiation with the approaches adopted for non-radioactive contaminants. A possible integrated assessment approach is outlined.     

Participatory scenario development for integrated sustainability assessment

The paper discusses the role of visions within sustainability assessment and governance for sustainable development in Europe. Currently, our societies (still) develop along an unsustainable path, which results in a number of persistent problems (climate change, loss of biodiversity, poverty, etc.). Integrated sustainability assessment (ISA) is one approach designed to initiate transitions towards sustainability. Visions of a sustainable future form an important part of ISA. These visions support the process of discussing how the transition from today’s societies/systems to a sustainable future can be achieved. According to the principles of ISA, visions should be developed in a participatory way, thus including the ideas and perceptions of stakeholders, decision-makers, experts and/or citizens. The paper starts with an introduction of the concepts of visions and scenarios and describes exemplary methods for their participatory development. Then, the main concepts for integrated sustainability assessment in comparison with other impact assessments are discussed. The main body of the paper presents experiences in three projects (ARTEMIS, ALARM, ECOCHANGE) in which visions and scenarios of sustainable futures were developed with stakeholders. The paper concludes with lessons learned and suggestions for future applications for participatory scenario development.     

国外棕地价值评估的方法与实践综述

在我国日益推进的城市化进程中,土地污染问题日益凸显,污染对于土地造成的价值损失也越来越引起人们的关注。因此,在土地的价值评估中如何纳入环境因素成为当前亟待解决的技术问题。而国外的棕地(即污染土地)价值评估起步较早,实践较为丰富,本文在参考大量外文文献的基础上,结合国外评估师的实践经验,对主要的国外棕地价值评估方法进行系统梳理总结,并针对市场比较法、收益还原法、成本逼近法和内涵定价法等四种不同方法的具体实践应用,筛选出有代表性的国外案例进行探讨,以期为国内的棕地价值评估提供方法与实践的参考。在此基础上,本文也就学术界的争论对棕地价值评估方法中的污名、清理期间和风险评估等三个方面的问题进行了总结和讨论,提出棕地价值评估对我国四个方面的启示和借鉴:重视环境因素,为促进和激励土地环境整治提供依据;出台相关政策,加强土地用途转换过程中的环境风险评估;公开环境数据,为棕地价值评估提供数据支撑;积累和借鉴经验,提高评估结果的准确性。     

Environmental risk assessment and the intrusion of bias

The concept of managing the environment and any associated human health impacts by means of such science-based tools as toxicological evaluation, risk assessment, and economic appraisal has become widely accepted in professional circles. These increasingly complex methodologies have not won universal support, however, even among the technically minded, and the wider public has in many cases remained sceptical. The public's seeming lack of enthusiasm has frequently been assigned to ignorance of science, irrationality even, and some attempts have been made to ameliorate the situation by means of education, though with little evidence of success. However, this review advances an alternative explanation, namely, that the disenchantment has more to do with procedural than technical matters. Many issues, although treated with technical risk assessment appear to have forced themselves onto the agenda because of factors only passingly connected with risk, and which are more related to the intrusion of disputed values and other sources of bias. This paper also notes that the intervention of bias in decision making is rife, and is found as much in professional as in public approaches. This need not itself be a problem, providing it is recognised and openly expressed. However, there remains a need for much greater circumspection and frankness by professions about the status of their art, and a determined effort if the full social benefits of environmental risk assessment (ERA) are to be realised.     

Uncertainties in human health risk assessment of environmental contaminants: A review and perspective

Addressing uncertainties in human health risk assessment is a critical issue when evaluating the effects of contaminants on public health. A range of uncertainties exist through the source-to-outcome continuum, including exposure assessment, hazard and risk characterisation. While various strategies have been applied to characterising uncertainty, classical approaches largely rely on how to maximise the available resources. Expert judgement, defaults and tools for characterising quantitative uncertainty attempt to fill the gap between data and regulation requirements. The experiences of researching 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) illustrated uncertainty sources and how to maximise available information to determine uncertainties, and thereby provide an ‘adequate’ protection to contaminant exposure. As regulatory requirements and recurring issues increase, the assessment of complex scenarios involving a large number of chemicals requires more sophisticated tools. Recent advances in exposure and toxicology science provide a large data set for environmental contaminants and public health. In particular, biomonitoring information, in vitro data streams and computational toxicology are the crucial factors in the NexGen risk assessment, as well as uncertainties minimisation. Although in this review we cannot yet predict how the exposure science and modern toxicology will develop in the long-term, current techniques from emerging science can be integrated to improve decision-making.     

Measuring combined exposure to environmental pressures in urban areas: an air quality and noise pollution assessment approach

This study presents a methodological scheme developed to provide a combined air and noise pollution exposure assessment based on measurements from personal portable monitors. Provided that air and noise pollution are considered in a co-exposure approach, they represent a significant environmental hazard to public health. The methodology is demonstrated for the city of Thessaloniki, Greece. The results of an extensive field campaign are presented and the variations in personal exposure between modes of transport, routes, streets and transport microenvironments are evaluated. Air pollution and noise measurements were performed simultaneously along several commuting routes, during the morning and evening rush hours. Combined exposure to environmental pollutants is highlighted based on the Combined Exposure Factor (CEF) and Combined Dose and Exposure Factor (CDEF). The CDEF takes into account the potential relative uptake of each pollutant by considering the physical activities of each citizen. Rather than viewing environmental pollutants separately for planning and environmental sustainability considerations, the possibility of an easy-to-comprehend co-exposure approach based on these two indices is demonstrated. Furthermore, they provide for the first time a combined exposure assessment to these environmental pollutants for Thessaloniki and in this sense they could be of importance for local public authorities and decision makers. A considerable environmental burden for the citizens of Thessaloniki, especially for VOCs and noise pollution levels is observed. The material herein points out the importance of measuring public health stressors and the necessity of considering urban environmental pollution in a holistic way.     

Vulnerability, Risk and Adaptation Assessment Methods in the Pacific Islands Region: past approaches, and considerations for the future

Over two decades of vulnerability assessments have shown the Pacific Islands region to be one of the regions most at risk to the adverse consequences of climate change. Pacific Island countries have shown strong leadership in characterising the challenges of climate change, both nationally and for the region as a whole, and in identifying the most appropriate responses. This paper reviews the various Vulnerability, Risk and Adaptation (VRiA) Assessment Methods and Tools that have been used across the Pacific Islands region, with an emphasis on the past two decades. The aim is to identify the approaches that are best suited to the region, and to develop a common understanding and principles that may be relevant and useful to harmonising the assessment of vulnerability and risk, and of adaptation options across the region. Even though assessments undertaken in the Pacific Islands region tend to share the common objective of reducing vulnerabilities and risks, practitioners in the Pacific are using numerous approaches, methods and tools to assess vulnerabilities and identify possible adaptation interventions. No one approach will address all needs and accommodate all capacities. Rather, several successful approaches, methods and tools are identified. The paper also identifies and assesses the approaches, methods and tools that have merit for further use, without or with further improvements. Lessons learned as well as success stories and success factors are documented. These findings are reflected in principles designed to assist harmonisation of approaches to VRiA assessment. These principles, in turn, influence the development of a proposed higher-level framework and approach for VRiA assessments. It accommodates the various approaches, methods and tools commonly used with success in the Pacific.     

Sustainability assessment as problem structuring: three typical ways

Sustainability assessment (SA) is an increasingly popular term referring to a broad range of approaches to align decision-making with the principles of sustainability. Nevertheless, in public and private sectors sustainability results are still disappointing, and this paper reflects on this problem and proposes a way forward. We argue that, because sustainability issues are generally wicked problems (i.e. a ‘complex of interconnected factors in a pluralistic context’), effective assessments need to be reflexive about the definition of the issue and about the criteria for sustainable solutions. Based on a distinction of policy problems, we characterize SA as a form of problem structuring, and we distinguish three typical ways of problem structuring, corresponding to three different ways of integrating reflexivity in the assessment. We illustrate these routes in three examples. We discuss the way reflexivity is integrated in each example by discussing the mix of methods, SA process and epistemological balance. Rather than merely calling for more stakeholder participation, our aim is to call for more reflexivity integrated into the SA approach, and we conclude by proposing a process map for reflexive sustainability assessment to support this.     

Challenges for modelling and integrating environmental performances in concept design: the case of an automotive component lightweighting

The objective of this paper is to discuss the main barriers for modelling and integrating the environmental performances in the automotive concept design. Incorporating environmental assessment in the early design phase of a vehicle component is known as an important challenge that car makers need to face in order to develop more sustainable design solutions; in this regard, the Life Cycle Assessment is the most widespread methodology for the environmental assessment and comparison of alternatives. The present work illustrates the combination of such methodology with the traditional design procedure at two different levels of the component design phase, material choice and concept design. In particular, the potential benefits originated by a lightweight solution for the automotive component Throttle Body are evaluated by considering environmental and technical implications at the same level. The case study shows that a multi-disciplinary approach for design effectively allows the integration of the environmental issue in the company’s established procedures. However, interpretation of results is still a challenging aspect due to the inevitable contradicting elements which should not discourage to develop comprehensive sustainability assessment within the early design stage.     

Using the Framework for Integrated Sustainability Assessment (FISA) to expand the Multiregional Input–Output analysis to account for the three pillars of sustainability

Decision makers interested in promoting sustainable development must simultaneously consider the environmental, economic and social implications of any action. This article proposes the Framework for Integrated Sustainability Assessment (FISA), a methodological framework for conducting a sustainability impact assessment of any investment project. Based on a Multiregional Input–Output (MRIO) framework, FISA links the extended MRIO results with social risk data from the Social Hotspots Database (SHDB) in order to integrate the social with the environmental and economic pillars. Resulting impacts are simultaneously considered and reported by means of FISA charts, making it possible to assess the different impacts within the three sustainability pillars across countries involved in the whole supply chain of investment projects. This methodological framework can be applied not only to compare the sustainability impacts of two alternative projects, but also to derive specific recommendations aimed at minimizing the harmful social, environmental and economic effects along the whole project supply chain.     

Integration of environmental and human health risk assessment for industries using hazardous materials: a quantitative multi criteria approach for environmental decision makers

Environmental management, for which environmental and human health risk assessment is the first stage, is a requirement for industries both before construction and during operation in order to sustain improved quality of life in the ecosystem. Therefore, the aim of this study is to propose an approach that integrates environmental and human health risk assessment for industries using hazardous materials in order to support environmental decision makers with quantitative and directive results. Analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy logic are used as tools to handle problems caused by complexity of environment and uncertain data. When the proposed approach is implemented to a scenario, it was concluded that it is possible to define risk sources with their risk classes and related membership degrees in that classes which enable the decision maker to decide which risk source has priority. In addition, they can easily point out and rank the factors contributing those risk sources owing to priority weights of them. As a result, environmental decision makers can use this approach while they are developing management alternatives for unfounded and on-going industrial plants using hazardous materials.     

Assessing biodiversity vulnerability to climate change: testing different methodologies for Portuguese herpetofauna

Assessing biodiversity vulnerability to future climate change is essential for developing robust adaptation strategies. A number of vulnerability assessment methodologies have been developed, from bioclimatic envelop models to more complex approaches that also consider biological traits and population status. However, the lack of comparative studies leaves the user to choose among the different methodologies without much guidance. This study applied three vulnerability assessment approaches to the Portuguese herpetofauna: (I) impact assessment approach based on bioclimatic models; (II) integrated vulnerability assessment approach, adding the evaluation of adaptive capacity to approach I; and (III) integrated vulnerability assessment and validation based on expert consultation. Results showed disagreement between the different approaches for 19 % of the species studied. Most differences were found between approach III and the two other approaches. All approaches showed advantages and limitations, the choice of a methodology being ultimately dependent on the study goals. Approach I has proven efficient to capture general vulnerability patterns. Approach II, although presenting results similar to approach I, allows for the identification of key factors affecting the species adaptive capacity and may be useful in tailoring adaptation measures. Approach III further allows us to identify knowledge gaps and to evaluate vulnerability when data availability or quality is reduced. Further, because this approach is based on an expert workshop, it has proven a perfect means to build on the vulnerability assessment results to identify indicator species and prioritize specific adaptation options.     

大城市群(圈)资源环境一体化与区域可持续发展研究——以珠江三角洲城市群为例

21世纪，全球竞争的基本单位将是以中心城市为核心的城市群（圈）。基于对大城市群发展趋势及其环境问题的基本认识，文章以珠江三角洲城市群为例，分析了其发展现状及存在环境问题，阐述了珠三角城市群未来发展趋势，初步给出了城市群环境问题解决的途径，提出了珠三角城市群资源环境一体化的框架和区域可持续发展模式。     

Whale watch or no watch: the Australian whale watching tourism industry and climate change

Whale watching is a billion dollar industry worldwide. One of the most popular species for whale watching is the humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae). The migratory corridors, feeding, resting and calving sites which are used for whale watching may be influenced by changing ocean currents and water temperatures. Here, we used an innovative approach addressing the emerging issue of climate change on the whale watch industry. This involved participatory modelling using key stakeholders for the whale watching industry to develop a systems conceptualisation model for evaluating the potential effects of climate change based on a case study from the east coast of Australia. This participatory approach allowed us to identify the causal linkages (including feedback pathways) between different “Elements” of the system within which the whale watching industry operates. It also allowed us to integrate multiple drivers covering socio-economic and environmental aspects including climate change (e.g. temperature), policy (e.g. number of boats), ecology (e.g. number of whales) and socio-economics (e.g. number of tourists) to evaluate the changes in the overall system. We then developed a Bayesian belief network model from the systems conceptualisation on which stakeholders identified a priority issue (Profitability). Stakeholders provided the structure and the quantification of this model, and a sensitivity analysis was carried out to help identify important intervention points for the industry. Overall, our research illustrates how such a modelling process can assist local tourism operators and authorities in making rational management decisions within a holistic or systems-based framework and its approach is applicable to other regions.     

Exploring paradoxes in the search for sustainable livelihoods: a case study from Tanzania

Many aspects of the relationship between conservation and livelihoods are well documented in the literature both the positive synergies and the negative implications of pursuing one priority over the other. This paper describes research that explored the specific influences in household decision-making in park adjacent communities in Tanzania to determine whether conservation and sustainable resource utilization was an influencing factor. While conservation did not appear to be a significant influence, productivity of the natural resource base to maintain livelihood activity and well-being was a prime driver of household decisions. However, in articulating the challenges faced by households a number of paradoxes became apparent. This paper highlights four paradoxes from the research relating to: the need for capital to support productivity improvement; the approaches for perceived needed intensification of resource utilization; the dependence on government for solutions; and the assessment process of the range of livelihood options. We present the research findings related to these four paradoxes and present potential actions for resolving these dilemmas.