International oil market – new directions

This article focuses on changes in the international petroleum industry during the past 20 years and examines some major trends, especially since the oil price collapse of 1986. The resumption of rapid increases in oil demand since 1986 in the developed market economies and the developing world has already led to a pronounced production shift to OPEC member countries where output increased by 6.6 million barrels per day or, 37% since 1985. Cutbacks in petroleum investments in non-OPEC countries are likely to result in even more dependence on the vast proved oil reserves of OPEC. However, the gap between peak output and sustainable production capacities in OPEC has narrowed and there is an urgent need for sizeable investments to expand capacities. Such investment programmes are already being implemented by transnational oil corporations in countries such as Indonesia and Nigeria where the companies had retained equity participation. In other countries such as Iraq and Venezuela where oil operations had been nationalized, transnational oil corporations are being invited to participate in new arrangements for oil production. New arrangements are also being considered in Eastern Europe and the USSR. New understandings, dialogue and cooperation between oil-consuming and producing countries will be necessary for the security of investments, supplies and markets in this process. The unanswered question is whether such cooperation can be achieved in time in order to avoid yet another energy crisis.     

Oil to 2000

Current surplus oil production capacity had its origins in the price increases of the 1970s. Those increases encouraged both energy conservation and the entry of new producers. Recent increases in oil demand reflect the belief among energy users that in real terms in the long term, prices will be stable. There is good reason to believe that this will be so, even at the current rate of increase it will be 15 years before demand matches current capacity. Given that situation it is difficult to see OPEC following any other pricing policy than the one currently in place. In the meantime market prices will further encourage vertical integration.     

黑龙江省对俄能源合作发展对策探讨

能源安全是一国能源战略的重要方面.中国是世界石油生产和消费大国,对油气有着巨大的需求,而俄罗斯是世界油气生产和出口大国.黑龙江省与俄罗斯毗邻,黑龙江省对俄的能源合作不但具有必要性,而且具有巩固中俄战略协作伙伴关系的重要意义.虽然合作面临着种种问题,但合作途径仍极为广阔.     

Oil-Induced environmental Kuznets curve in organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC)

This study investigates the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in 10 of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). To realize the study’s aims a time series model is built based on the period 1977–2008, utilizing the ecological footprint as an environmental indicator and income, labour, capital, oil consumption and oil price as economic indicators. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, by comparing the short and long-run income elasticities, the EKC hypothesis is present in six OPEC countries namely Algeria, Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria, Qatar and Kuwait. Moreover, the Toda–Yamamoto–Dolado–Lütkepohl (TYDL) causality tests outcome show that, after oil consumption, the most significant factors in increasing ecological footprint are labor and capital. This implies the relocation of pollution intensive industries to almost all of the OPEC countries. However, oil prices reduce environmental damage by its negative effect on the ecological footprint. From the outcome of this study it is important for the investigated countries to reduce their consumption of fossil fuel energy since it represents an important source of pollution. This can be achieved by allocating more labor and capital in projects and investments on renewable energy, energy efficiency and energy saving.     

Book reviews

Book reviewed in this article: Moving Africa forward in the 1990s : SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: FROM CRISIS TO SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE STUDY by Ramgopal Agarwala, Pierre Landell-Mills, Stanley Please AFRICA'S COMMODITY PROBLEMS: TOWARDS A SOLUTION : by Malcom Fraser, Chairman The future for oil : WORLD OIL PRICES: DEMAND, SUPPLY AND SUBSTITUTES by Yousuf H. Mohammad, Walter J. Mead The world oil industry : ENERGY WATCHERS I: SHADOW OPEC: NEW ELEMENT FOR STABILITY? AND A ‘REINTEGRATED’ OIL INDUSTRY edited by Dorothea H. El Mallakh     

International coal prices

The place coal will occupy among the world's energy supplies depends on many factors, including its price trends. This paper reviews recent price trends and supports the thesis that future coal prices are independent of oil prices, and that they will fluctuate between two limits which are based on production and transport costs in the USA and Australia.     

The effect of the price of gold on its production: a time-series analysis

Production of gold in Australia has grown strongly in recent years. Australia is ranked the world's third largest gold producer, only South Africa and the US produce more than Australia. Most of the Australian gold production comes from one of its states, Western Australia. In this paper, we use recent developments in econometric time series analysis to present an analysis of gold production and prices during the period 1948–1994. The results show that if the price of gold (relative to costs) increases by 10% and the price (in levels) remain the same for the next 5 years, then in the first year gold production will rise by 0.3%; in the second year by 2.2%; in the third year by 7.4%; in the fourth year by 8.9% and in the fifth year by 10.7%.     

Perception of the environmental impacts of current and alternative modes of pig production by stakeholder groups

The current industrial pig production model is in crisis, due to its association with environmental pollution, doubtful product quality and lack of animal well-being. In Bretagne (France), a region of intensive pig production, a survey of seven stakeholder groups concerned with pig production was conducted, as part of a research programme dedicated to the assessment of the environmental impact of different modes of pig production. A very large majority of pig producers (93%) and their suppliers (100%) considers pig farms as an asset for the region, whereas a majority of scientists (58%), activists (78%) and consumers (54%) sees it as a handicap. Differences among stakeholder groups are minor with respect to the perceived importance of environmental and social issues. Stakeholders agree on the relative level of responsibility of pig farms with respect to specific problems. For all groups unpleasant odours and water quality come first with respect to responsibility, for most groups soil quality comes second, followed by product safety and air quality. For a future improved mode of pig production, 76% of pig producers and their suppliers prefer to adapt the current model, for all other groups the majority prefers an alternative model. While pig producers and their suppliers prefer a slurry-based housing system, all other groups prefer a straw-based system. Pig producers see the slurry-based system as technically superior and associate the straw-based system with poor working conditions, whereas consumers associate the slurry-based system in the first place with poor water quality and associate the straw-based system with less pollution. These results will be of use in the research programme on the environmental impact of modes of pig production, as they indicate the environmental impacts to be considered and their relative importance. The results will also help in deciding which options should be assessed. It is concluded that the poor image of the current pig production model and its production practices with consumers does not seem compatible with a sustainable demand for pork products.     

Tin Availability in Market Economy Countries

The U.S. Department of Interior's Bureau of Mines determined costs associated with the production of tin from 18 market economy countries (MECs). The resource and relative economic positions of 146 tin deposits were evaluated. Demonstrated resources of recoverable tin metal are estimated to be 2.8 million metric tons. Over 70% of this material is recoverable from three south-east Asian countries - Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia; all are members of the International Tin Agreement (ITA).
In the last five years, Brazil has become a major, low-cost tin producer. In light of their large resources Brazil has become a dominant MEC tin producer and one of the world's few tin producers that can prosper during a protracted period of low tin prices.     

Hydrocarbon exploration and production in sub-Saharan Africa

In 1988, sub-Saharan Africa provided only 2.3 million bbllday of oil and 4 thousand million m³ of natural gas, representing respectively, approximately 4% and less than 1% of the world's supplies of those energy sources. This is surprising, given the extensive land area and the presence of sedimentary basins in many of the countries of the region. This paper explores the reasons for this relatively low production, details exploration efforts to date and makes recommendations for increasing investment in petroleum exploration in sub-Saharan Africa.     

China

For the first time since the mid-1960s, China became a net oil importer in 1993. That the country will remain a net oil importer is inevitable and probably irreversible for the foreseeable future. In the period to 2000, its crude oil production is projected to increase only 2% annually, while demand for refined oil products is expected to grow at 6.6% per annum. As a result, China's net oil imports are expected to reach 1.3 million barrels per day in 2000, accounting for almost one-third of its projected oil consumption. Most of the imports will come from the Middle East, and China's dependence on Middle Eastern oil is expected to increase significantly in the future .     

Think Global,Buy National: CSR,Cooperatives and Consumer Concerns in the Norwegian Food Value Chain

In a world where issues of food safety and food security are increasingly important, the social responsibility of central actors in the food chain—producers and the main grocery chains—becomes more pressing. As a response, these actors move from implicitly assuming social responsibilities implied in laws, regulations and ethical customs, towards explicitly expressing social responsibilities. In this paper, we discuss the ethical values relevant for the social responsibility of central food producers and retailers in Norway, one of the most subsidized and protected areas of food production in the world. How do the actors perceive and express their social responsibility, and—given their position in the local, national and global market—how should they handle these responsibilities? We analyze Tine and Nortura, two producers owned by farmer cooperatives with market regulator function, as well as Coop—a dominant grocery chain in Norway, with basis in the same public ownership model as the farmer-owned cooperative producers. While the complex roles of these key actors in the Norwegian food market have been criticized from several angles, we argue that these multifaceted roles put them in a good position to promote informed consumer choices in a globalized market.     

Non-South African ferrochrome prospects

In 1990, South Africa accounted for 43% of the 2 405 000t of ferrochrome produced worldwide. Even though world production has been very close to that level for more than five years, there is still approximately 1 million tlyear of excess capacity in the world today. Despite that huge overhang, when capacity closures are deducted from capacity additions, there was a net increase in capacity of approximately 450 000 t/year during the period 1989–91. Some of this additional capacity is intended to serve a domestic market and some to take advantage of very low production costs. Nevertheless, with so much excess capacity, the price of ferrochrome will remain under pressure for some time to come.     

Social responsibility and resource extraction: Are Chinese oil companies different?

In order to meet China’s rapidly increasing demand for oil, Chinese oil companies have been investing in oil production around the world. This article addresses one specific aspect of the more generalized fears expressed about China’s increasing demand for natural resources which is the impact that its oil companies will have on the corporate social responsibility (CSR) movement. In doing so, it limits its analysis to the three main Chinese oil companies: the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and their investments in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Oil and gas reserves of the Middle East and North Africa

A quantitative estimate of the petroleum reserves of the Middle East and North Africa is presented and analysed in terms of the region's ability to meet current market demand for a sweet light crude. Costs of Middle East production are compared with those of other oil-producing regions. With an average costs of US$4/bbl, the Middle East has both the largest oil reserves and the lowest cost oil in the world. While new and improved technology of exploration and production may lessen this price advantage in the future, it will not eliminate it. Because of these two factors, the Middle East will continue to play an important role on the world energy stage well into the next century.     

Are there limits to growth? The need for a transition to a solar-based economy

The idea of limits to growth has, understandably, achieved notoriety since the days of Malthus and, more recently, the Club of Rome. However, there must be some limits to the ability of the earth to sustain a growing population. Fortunately, population models suggest that the world's population will probably level out at about two to three times the present numbers over the next hundred years. The question is whether the earth's resources are sufficient to sustain that population at a high standard of living for all. In this the key issue is energy. It is clear that present trends in energy consumption, especially oil, cannot be sustained much longer. Regardless of this, however, prudence demands a drastic reduction in fossil fuel consumption, in view of the possibility of global warming. It can be shown that, combined with greatly improved energy efficiency, a transition to a solar (renewable) energy based economy, capable of sustaining the anticipated growth in the world economy, is possible, but the constraints are extremely tight .     

Trials and Tribulations of Third World Petroleum Development: Lessons and Advice for Prospective Producers

This paper presents a variety of lessons for governments of developing countries about how to begin to operate as new oil producers in the world petroleum market. Lessons, drawn from the recent experiences of currently producing LDCs, are identified for each stage of the industry from exploration and development through procurement and supply to refining and marketing.     

The Future of Large, Low Grade, Hard-rock Tin Deposits

The price of tin is at historically low levels and tin is in oversupply. Present production is largely from alluvial deposits worked mainly by small- and medium-sized producers. These producers, often undercaptilized and working deposits of declining grade, are faced with rising production costs. It is expected that many will cease production in the future. Interest is therefore beginning to focus on the viability of exploiting large hard-rock tin deposits amenable to low-cost bulk mining methods. Among the countries which appear to have very large reserves of hard-rock tin deposits is China, and it is anticipated that in the future China will be a major supplier of tin.     

Financing energy development in the 1990s

Energy finance has resurfaced as a major issue in energy and energy policy debates. These concerns arise from the recent dismal performance of the private oil industry, and the growing financial demands of the former Soviet Union and other emerging markets. These growing financial imbalances are seen as jeopardizing the continued smooth growth of the world's petroleum industry. However, this paper stresses that the financial difficulties being experienced by publicly held oil companies are due, primarily, to the current economic recession. As economic growth recovers, and owing to recent substantial cost reductions, the balance sheets of the private oil industry will improve. Among state energy companies, recent structural and financial reforms mean that such companies will be able to retain more cash flow than was true historically. Moreover, many national oil companies are again able to access funds on international financial markets and generally at increasingly attractive spreads. And finally, there is the growing importance of financial innovation that is already having a positive impact on the level and pace of petroleum development worldwide.     

Indonesia's mineral resources: Performance and prospects

This paper discusses the present position and future prospects of mineral exploration and exploitation in Indonesia. It places the industry within the economic and political context of the country as a whole and considers the development of government policy towards the sector. Although the mineral resources of Indonesia are believed to be vast, the performance of the industry in the past has been erratic. The relative political stability of the last few years, combined with rising prices, has encouraged the opening up of new mines, and has also emphasised the need for more local processing of those minerals that are produced. At present, income from oil provides most of the government revenue and consequently the prospects of this sector are critically important for the nation's future. Increased diversification can, however, be expected in the next few years as the resources of tin, bauxite, nickel, copper, coal and many other products are developed. Given a favourable political and economic climate, Indonesia could be one of the world's major mineral producers by the end of the century.