A Robust Optimization Model for an Invasive Species Management Problem

Invasive species pose a significant threat to global biodiversity. Managing invasive species often involves modeling the species’ spread pattern, estimating control costs and damage costs due to the invasion, designing control efforts, and accounting for uncertainties in model parameters. Dealing with uncertainty is arguably the most important part of the process, since biological, environmental, and economic factors can cause parameter values to vary greatly. Managers need decision tools that are robust to such limited or variable information. Here, we present a robust spatial optimization model to select treatment sites in a way that maximally reduces the size of an invasive population, given a constraint on financial resources. We develop an integer programming model that includes population dynamics and management costs over space and time. The model incorporates uncertainty in the available budget and the invasive spread rate as sets of discrete scenarios to determine a robust, cost-effective management plan in a novel way.     

Distributional Assumptions in Chance-Constrained Programming Models of Stochastic Water Pollution

In the water management literature both the normal and log-normal distribution are commonly used to model stochastic water pollution. The normality assumption is usually motivated by the central limit theorem, while the log-normality assumption is often motivated by the need to avoid the possibility of negative pollution loads. We utilize the truncated normal distribution as an alternative to these distributions. Using probabilistic constraints in a cost-minimization model for the Baltic Sea, we show that the distribution assumption bias is between 1% and 60%. Simulations show that a greater difference is to be expected for data with a higher degree of truncation. Using the normal distribution instead of the truncated normal distribution leads to an underestimation of the true cost. On the contrary, the difference in cost when using the normal versus the log-normal can be positive as well as negative.     

城市空气质量的管理

根据“城市空气质量管理,欧盟和中国的实践与经验”国际会专家的发言,整理出有关中国城市空气质量管理的１０条建议,城市空气质量管理工作要加强其有生的评估,环保立法 和标准工作要体现先进性,发挥引导作用,城市空气质量管理要有科学研究的支持增强科学性;城市空气质量管理要有区域性的观点,城市质量管理要有前瞻性;城市质量要贯彻可持续发展战略,环保部门负责做好;空气质量管理,积极参与空气的污染治理,深化空气质量     

美国加州南岸地区空气质量监测系统运行管理与借鉴

借鉴加州南岸空气质量监测管理经验（特别是运行管理模式）对于现阶段我国城市环境空气质量监测管理具有极高的参考价值。简要介绍了加州南岸空气质量管理局（ SCAQMD）的空气质量监测现状、监测网络布局、颗粒物采样方法和相关质量管理体系。对现行的环境空气质量指数、管理架构和PM2?5考核方法进行了综合比较,建议从4个方面借鉴SCAQMD经验：试行“空气质量管理区”模式;开展专项研究网络建设;逐步开展手工监测采样和颗粒物化学组分分析;提升数据挖掘水平,服务管理决策。     

美国加州南岸地区空气质量预报系统运行管理与借鉴

借鉴美国加州南岸空气质量预报经验,特别是其运行管理模式对于现阶段中国城市环境空气质量预测预报具有极高的参考价值。简要介绍了加州南岸空气质量管理局(SCAQMD)空气质量预报业务流程、技术方法、信息发布方式和预报效果评估策略。建议从4个方面借鉴SCAQMD经验:(1)建立相对完善的空气质量预报体系,分层级自上而下指导预报工作;(2)选择合适的空气质量预报方法,综合统筹成本-效益评估工作;(3)评估预报效果进而提高预报准确率;(4)在优化空气质量预报能力的基础上,有序开展预警协同控制工作。     

A Superiority-Inferiority-Based Inexact Fuzzy Stochastic Programming Approach for Solid Waste Management Under Uncertainty

A superiority–inferiority-based inexact fuzzy stochastic programming (SI-IFSP) model was developed for planning municipal solid waste management systems under uncertainty. The SI-IFSP approach represents a new attempt to tackle multiple uncertainties in objective function coefficients which are beyond the capabilities of existing inexact programming methods. Through introducing the concept of fuzzy random boundary interval, SI-IFSP is capable of reflecting multiple uncertainties (i.e., interval values, fuzzy sets, probability distributions, and their combinations) in both the objective function and constraints, leading to enhanced system robustness. The developed SI-IFSP method was applied to a case study of long-term municipal solid waste management. Useful solutions were generated. A number of decision alternatives could be generated based on projected applicable conditions, reflecting the compromise between system optimality and reliability as well as the tradeoffs between economic and environmental objectives. Moreover, the consequences of system violations could be quantified through introducing a set of economic penalties, reflecting the relationships between system costs and constraint violation risks. The results suggest that the proposed SI-IFSP method can explicitly address complexities in municipal solid waste management systems and is applicable to practical waste management problems.     

Air Quality Monitoring and Management in Lisbon

The environmental decision-making process is related with the interpretation of data both in spatial and temporal dimensions. This paper presents a methodology that integrates the time-space framework of air quality data to infer the temporal pattern and spatial variability that could be interpreted for environmental decision purposes. Variograms that accommodate time and space lags were used for the analysis and proved to be effective. Its environmental meaning, in particular its relationship with traffic patterns is discussed. Data from air quality monitoring stations located in the central part of Lisbon were used in this study. It describes a strategy to identify the type of vehicles responsible for certain pollutant levels, particularly for nitrogen oxides, and discusses the application of new air quality European legislation to the city of Lisbon, Portugal.     

Interval-Parameter Conditional Value-at-Risk Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Model for Management of End-of-Life Vehicles

The management of end-of-life vehicles conserves natural resources, provides economic benefits, and reduces water, air, and soil pollution. Sound management of end-of-life vehicles is vitally important worldwide thus requiring sophisticated decision-making tools for optimizing its efficiency and reducing system risk. This paper proposes an interval-parameter conditional value-at-risk two-stage stochastic programming model for management of end-of-life vehicles. A case study is conducted in order to demonstrate the usefulness of the developed model. The model is able to provide the trade-offs between the expected profit and system risk. It can effectively control risk at extremely disadvantageous availability levels of end-of-life vehicles. The formulated model can produce optimal solutions under predetermined decision-making risk preferences and confidence levels. It can simultaneously determine the optimal long-term allocation targets of end-of-life vehicles and reusable parts as well as capital investment, production planning, and logistics management decisions within a multi-period planning horizon. The proposed model can efficiently handle uncertainties expressed as interval values and probability distributions. It is able to provide valuable insights into the effects of uncertainties. Compared to the available models, the resulting solutions are far more robust.

     

Urban Air Quality Assessment Model: UAQAM

The Urban Air Quality Assessment Model (UAQAM) calculates urban concentrations caused by city emissions themselves, the so-called city background concentration. Three versions of the model for describing the dispersion were studied: Box, Gifford Hanna (GH) and a combined form of these two (Box–GH model). Regional background emissions contributing to the urban background concentration were accounted for by using measurements and calculations from a dispersion model on the continental scale. The results of the three UAQAM versions for a number of European cities were compared to measurements of SO₂ and NO _X . The Box–GH model shows better results when compared to the Box model and slightly better results in comparison to the GH model. The Box–GH model has been taken as a starting point for the assessment of urban air quality with UAQAM.     

我国重大活动环境空气质量监测预报评估技术体系的发展与思考

通过总结南京青年奥林匹克运动会、二十国集团领导人峰会、金砖国家领导人第九次会晤、中国国际进口博览会、第七届世界军人运动会等重大活动环境空气质量保障工作经验,简述近年来中国重大活动环境空气质量监测预报评估技术的进展以及所发挥的作用。结合城市环境精细化管控和未来我国"十四五"环境空气质量持续改进的需求,提出在监测网络、监测技术、排放清单、预测预报产品和保障机制等方面有待提升的建议。     

以空气质量达标管理为核心的大气污染防治工作机制选择

面对严峻的大气污染防治形势,国务院《大气污染防治行动计划》(简称国家"大气十条")明确了到2017年大气污染防治的阶段性目标。在借鉴国外有关空气质量达标管理经验的基础上,提出组织实施"大气十条",需要以空气质量持续改善为目标,围绕空气质量达标管理这条主线,完善配套的政策、法规、标准、技术以及评估、考核等一系列方法和制度体系。     

空气质量日报、预报管理信息系统开发浅谈

结合乌鲁木齐市开展空气质量日报，预报以来的一些经验，对空气质量日报管理信息系统作一介绍，并对关键部分提出了具体的实施方案。     

高精度船舶排放清单在城市空气质量管理中的应用

上海港船舶大气污染物排放对城市空气质量的影响不容小觑。基于船舶AIS数据,高精度船舶大气污染物排放清单得以建立并应用。2018年11月5—10日召开的第一届中国国际进口博览会期间,在气象条件不利的情况下,通过提前实施船舶排放控制区政策等措施,使船舶单日SO_x排放量下降28.5%,一次PM_2.5排放量下降25.5%,全市空气质量达到了保障要求。     

基于分形求和模型的克拉玛依市空气质量评价

以克拉玛依市4个区2012年的大气自动监测数据为样本,基于分形求和模型,分析大气污染物的分布特征,利用分维数确定污染物浓度分布的随机程度,计算 SO2、NO2、PM10的大气环境背景值与标准值,确定适合于评价区域的ORAQI指数计算公式,并与 API指数作对比。ORAQI指数计算结果显示,克拉玛依市全年环境空气质量基本呈现“U”字形变化,春夏季大气质量好于秋冬季,全年空气质量有明显的季节变化,4个区中克拉玛依区空气质量相对较差,乌尔禾区空气质量最好。相对于 API指数的均匀分布结果,ORAQI指数具有更好的次要污染物体现能力,可以综合体现所评价的各项污染因子的贡献。     

南通市区静态管理期间空气质量分析

对南通市区2022年4月初因疫情防控采取全区域静态管理期间的空气质量进行分析,以气象参数、臭氧前体物VOCs和NO_x作为分析对象。结果表明:此次污染过程的主导因素是高温、强辐射、低湿和偏南风的气象条件。南通市区处于VOCs控制区,高温、强辐射使得VOCs挥发性增强,浓度升高。偏南方向的苏通园区和能达公园VOCs浓度较高且升幅较大,源解析结果表明这2个点位涂料溶剂使用占比升幅更高,既容易受附近石化和储油库影响,也容易受偏南风向的污染输送影响。据初步统计,静态管理期间南通市区停工数量为80%左右,污染期间NO₂浓度高值区主要分布在沿江一带,长江南岸的张家港和常熟地区存在多家高排放企业,在偏南风下,张家港和常熟的污染物极易输送至南通市区。基于空气质量模型WRF-CAMx的O₃和PM_2.5来源解析结果显示,静态管理期间外来输送明显,占比为68.7%~84.7%。污染期间的船舶排放和二次转化贡献也不容忽视。建议南通市应重点加强工业、油气挥发和涂料溶剂源减排,同时加强区域联防联控,以便进一步改善空气质量。     

Project of an Air Quality Monitoring Network for Industrial Site in Italy

In this paper results concerning project of an atmospheric monitoring network applied to an area of south of Italy carried out using chemical measurement campaigns (for traffic emissions characterisation couple with diffusional simulation of industrial pollutant emissions will be presented. The area selected is characterised by an high concentration of high environmental impacting industrial activities, with also high concentration of urban settlement and vehicular traffic. A comprehensive definition of all the monitoring system to be installed in order to have a correct monitoring system for the all province will be described and discussed.     

Development and Use of Integrated Air Quality Management Tools in Urban Areas with the Aid of Environmental Telematics

Contemporary urban air quality management requires the use of appropriate systems which include air quality models, a Geographical Information System (GIS) and a combination of expert systems and decision support tools, while at the same time possessing the capability to receive information from in situ measurements. Until recently, the relation between Information Technology capabilities and the system's design and architecture were poorly addressed, mainly due to technological limitations posed. Moreover, air quality management scenario design issues were partially considered, because of the difficulty in aggregating complex, air quality related issues, in a comprehensive and effective manner, from the end users point of view. In the present paper the use of Environmental Telematics is discussed as a framework for the development of urban air quality management systems, while a comprehensive approach for the application and evaluation of relevant scenarios is presented.     

中国重点城市空气污染预报及其进展

为更好地反映大气环境污染变化趋势,加大环境污染控制力度,预防严重污染事件发生,开展城市空气质量报告及空气污染预报工作是十分必要的。文章概括地论述了开展此项研究的目的、意义、基本方法及其进展。     

改进模糊综合评价和主颜色提取模型对河道黑臭独立评价

为实现水体黑度和臭度的独立评价,以四川省11个市17条黑臭或曾黑臭的河道为研究对象,利用相关性分析法、主成分分析法,提取出影响河道水体黑度和臭度的特征因子,采用改进模糊综合评价法和基于K-均值聚类的主颜色提取法搭建出黑臭程度独立评价模型。结果表明：影响河道水体发黑的特征因子是总铁、COD和DO;影响河道水体发臭的特征因子是COD、NH₃-N、TP和DO;改进模糊综合评价和主颜色提取模型对河道黑度和臭度的独立评价与实测值误差基本在一个等级以内的准确率为85.7%。河道的黑臭程度独立评价模型的确定能够实现对城市河道水质更为客观与快速的评价,为黑臭水体针对性治理与水质提升提供理论依据。     

济南市环境空气监测技术“九五”发展初探

概述了济南市环境空气质量的主要问题，讨论了“九五”期间济南市环境空气监测技术发展目标和方案。