Risk and resilience lessons from Venice

In the history of disasters in Venice, there are implications for modern times in terms of complex systems management and emerging threats, in particular from examples of risk management and resilience achieved by the Venetian state during outbreaks of the plague. In fourteenth century Venice, risk assessment the way we practice it today would fail to provide meaningful recommendations to reduce the casualty rate of the plague epidemic because the cause and transmission of the disease was not understood. Instead, a set of systemic actions across the social, economic, and transportation networks of the city taken by officials and doctors eventually slowed and arguably stopped the spread of the disease. These latter actions are an early example of what is now considered resilience management. Resilience management improves a complex system’s ability to prepare, absorb, recover, and adapt to unexpected threats and does so by address the capabilities at a system, rather than component, level. Resilience management can be a guide to addressing current issues of population growth and rising sea level in modern day Venice and across the globe. This paper calls for integration of resilience assessment in comprehensive risk and resilience management framework.     

Risk management is not enough: a conceptual model for resilience and adaptation-based vulnerability assessments

The US government has focused considerable attention on enhancing our society’s ability to protect critical systems and services from disruptive events. Over the past decade, federal agencies have bolstered their efforts to identify and minimize threats using traditional risk-based approaches such as continuity of operations and disaster risk reduction processes. However, these valuable risk identification and management tools are limited because they rely upon foreseeable factor analyses of steady-state systems with predictable hazard frequencies and severities. In assessing the capability of complex adaptive systems to cope with disruptions, an overemphasis upon engineering resilience through risk management and planning for what is predictable may cloud or detract from our efforts to better understand a system’s emergent capabilities to withstand disruptions that are unforeseeable. This article contends that augmenting traditional risk approaches through the incorporation of methodologies grounded in socio-ecological system (SES) resilience principles offers a potential avenue for improving our agencies’ abilities to assess and manage both known and unknown risks. We offer a notional rationale for broadening our examination of system vulnerabilities and present a conceptual model that combines engineering and SES resilience paradigms to facilitate the identification, assessment, and management of system vulnerabilities. The Military Installation Resilience Assessment model described herein applies risk and resilience principles to evaluate whole systems, focusing on interconnections and their functionality in facilitating response and adaptation.     

External threats and internal management: the hydrologic regulation of the Everglades,Florida, USA

The ecological character of seasonal marshes is determined in large part by the pattern of water level fluctuation. As a result, the ecological health of a wetland reserve can be controlled by hydrologic regulation external to its boundaries. As an example, the Everglades marsh of Everglades National Park in Florida, USA, has been severely effected by management of the inflow of surface water. The Everglades occupies most of the interior of southern Florida, but only the lower 6% of the original marsh is contained in Everglades National Park. Shallow surface water reservoirs north of the park enclose 3600 km² of Everglades. Their levee system confines surface water flow into the park to several structures. Historically this water flowed across the entire core of the natural drainage. Flows into the park have been on a congressionally mandated schedule of minimum deliveries that is supplemented by additional water released into the park in amounts determined solely by upstream water management needs. My research, aimed at evaluating the effects of water conditions, has shown that this regulatory system has adversely affected reproductive success, community structure, and population sizes of sensitive species whose population stability is tied to natural water level fluctuations. These adverse effects were caused by water levels that for over a decade have been maintained at unseasonably high levels. Mathematically deterministic models of water level effects can provide management options based on biologial criteria. Park managers must incorporate understanding gained from such models into internal management decisions. Modifications of water control structures and alternative policies for managing the distribution and amount of surface water flow into the park appear attainable, can improve biological conditions in the park, and need not be adverse to neighboring external interests. Thus far biological changes are severe, and to a large extent irreversible. Ecologically sensitive management of an external threat under constraints imposed by history and setting can better maintain some semblance of ecological processes in the Everglades. If management decisions do not reflect such understanding of ecological processes, further ecological deterioration will result.     

Panarchy use in environmental science for risk and resilience planning

Environmental sciences have an important role in informing sustainable management of built environments by providing insights about the drivers and potentially negative impacts of global environmental change. Here, we discuss panarchy theory, a multi-scale hierarchical concept that accounts for the dynamism of complex socio-ecological systems, especially for those systems with strong cross-scale feedbacks. The idea of panarchy underlies much of system resilience, focusing on how systems respond to known and unknown threats. Panarchy theory can provide a framework for qualitative and quantitative research and application in the environmental sciences, which can in turn inform the ongoing efforts in socio-technical resilience thinking and adaptive and transformative approaches to management.     

Disturbance regimes,resilience, and recovery of animal communities and habitats in lotic ecosystems

Disturbance regime is a critical organizing feature of stream communities and ecosystems. The position of a given reach in the river basin and the sediment type within that reach are two key determinants of the frequency and intensity of flow-induced disturbances. We distinguish between predictable and unpredictable events and suggest that predictable discharge events are not disturbances. We relate the dynamics of recovery from disturbance (i.e., resilience) to disturbance regime (i.e., the disturbance history of the site). The most frequently and predictably disturbed sites can be expected to demonstrate the highest resilience. Spatial scale is an important dimension of community structure, dynamics, and recovery from disturbance. We compare the effects on small patches (⩽1 m²) to the effects of large reaches at the river basin level. At small scales, sediment movements and scour are major factors affecting the distribution of populations of aquatic insects or algae. At larger scales, we must deal with channel formation, bank erosion, and interactions with the riparian zone that will affect all taxa and processes. Our understanding of stream ecosystem recovery rests on our grasp of the historical, spatial, and temporal background of contemporary disturbance events.     

The miombo woodlands at the cross roads: Potential threats, sustainable livelihoods, policy gaps and challenges

The Miombo, the most extensive tropical woodland formation of Africa directly supports the livelihoods of over 100 million people through the provision of many tree products and ecosystem services essential to both the rural and urban communities. While the destruction of the Miombo has often been blamed on the rural communities dwelling near the forest resources, many urban dwellers depend heavily on the various products derived from the woodlands. This paper highlights the importance of the Miombo in the livelihoods of rural people, the potential threats to this ecosystem and opportunities for its sustainable management. About 70% of energy consumed in southern Africa is in the form of fuelwood or charcoal. The economic importance of the Miombo especially from non-timber forest products (NTFPs) is usually understated due to their perceived non-economic value yet they play an important role in sustaining livelihoods of forest dependent people in the miombo ecoregion. The Miombo also contributes to health services through the use of medicinal plant and products, in some cases, contributing up to 80% to rural health, including helping in coping with effects of HIV/AIDS, malaria and several diseases. The possibility of developing payment for environmental services schemes through public–private partnerships, and community-based sustainable management models are proposed. Through conservation and commercialization of some of the products and services, there is a potential to provide income and improve the livelihood of people involved in the trade along the value chain.     

Understanding urban vulnerability,adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change

This paper introduces a special issue of Local Environment that has arisen through collaboration between academic researchers and the Urban Planning and Design Branch of UN-Habitat, focused on how we can understand and respond to the challenges of urban vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. The paper establishes the existing state of the art in the field, and considers critical challenges that are emerging in the research-based literature. In this context, it introduces UN-Habitat's Cities and Climate Change Initiative and reflects on the lessons learnt and challenges ahead, drawing on insights from across the papers in the special issue. In conclusion, it identifies the role of international/transnational co-operation, the relation between adaptation and mitigation, issues of multi-level governance and the ways in which change in urban socio-technical systems might be achieved as critical issues across the science/policy interface where increased dialogue and the co-production of knowledge needs to focus in order to advance this agenda.     

Risk perception, risk communication, and stakeholder involvement for biosolids management and research

An individual's perception of risk develops from his or her values, beliefs, and experiences. Social scientists have identified factors that affect perceptions of risk, such as whether the risk is knowable (uncertainty), voluntary (can the individual control exposure?), and equitable (how fairly is the risk distributed?). There are measurable differences in how technical experts and citizen stakeholders define and assess risk. Citizen knowledge and technical expertise are both relevant to assessing risk; thus, the 2002 National Research Council panel on biosolids recommended stakeholder involvement in biosolids risk assessments. A survey in 2002 identified some of the factors that influence an individual's perception of the risks involved in a neighbor's use of biosolids. Risk communication was developed to address the gap between experts and the public in knowledge of technical topics. Biosolids management and research may benefit from applications of current risk communication theory that emphasizes (i) two-way communications (dialogue); (ii) that the public has useful knowledge and concerns that need to be acknowledged; and (iii) that what may matter most is the credibility of the purveyor of information and the levels of trustworthiness, fairness, and respect that he or she (or the organization) demonstrates, which can require cultural change. Initial experiences in applying the dialogue and cultural change stages of risk communication theory--as well as consensus-building and joint fact-finding--to biosolids research suggest that future research outcomes can be made more useful to decision-makers and more credible to the broader public. Sharing control of the research process with diverse stakeholders can make research more focused, relevant, and widely understood.     

Tropical montane cloud forests: current threats and opportunities for their conservation and sustainable management in Mexico

Tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) are among the most threatened ecosystems globally in spite of their high strategic value for sustainable development due to the key role played by these forests in hydrological cycle maintenance and as reservoirs of endemic biodiversity. Resources for effective conservation and management programs are rarely sufficient, and criteria must be applied to prioritize TMCF for conservation action. This paper reports a priority analysis of the 13 main regions of TMCF distribution in Mexico, based on four criteria: (1) forest quality, (2) threats to forest permanence, (3) threats to forest integrity, and (4) opportunities for conservation. Due to the diverse socio-environmental conditions of the local communities living in Mexican TMCF regions, their associated social characteristics were also evaluated to provide a background for the planning of conservation actions. A set of indicators was defined for the measurement of each criterion. To assign priority values for subregions within each main region, an international team of 40 participants evaluated all the indicators using multicriteria decision-making analysis. This procedure enabled the identification of 15 subregions of critical priority, 17 of high priority, and 10 of medium priority; three more were not analysed due to lack of information. The evaluation revealed a number of subjects that had hitherto been undetected and that may prove useful for prioritization efforts in other regions where TMCF is similarly documented and faces equally severe threats. Based on this analysis, key recommendations are outlined to advance conservation objectives in those TMCF areas that are subjected to high pressure on forest resources.     

Water and economic development: The role of variability and a framework for resilience

The article advances the hypothesis that the seasonal and inter‐annual variability of rainfall is a significant and measurable factor in the economic development of nations. An analysis of global datasets reveals a statistically significant relationship between greater rainfall variability and lower per capita GDP. Having established this correlation, we construct a water resources development index that highlights areas that have the greatest need for storage infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of rainfall variability on water availability for food and basic livelihood. The countries with the most critical infrastructure needs according to this metric are among the poorest in the world, and the majority of them are located in Africa. The importance of securing water availability in these nations increases every day in light of current population growth, economic development, and climate change projections.     

Use of Sediment Risk and Ecological/Conservation Value for Strategic Management of Estuarine Environments: Sydney Estuary,Australia

Sediment mantling the floor of Sydney estuary contains a wide range of chemicals at highly elevated concentrations over extensive areas. Appropriate sediment management decisions are urgently required to prevent further degradation of sediment quality and to minimize resulting adverse ecological effects. The objective of the present work was to provide a systematic, estuary-wide assessment of sediment risk and ecological/conservation value throughout the harbor to guide sediment management decisions. Sediment risk is the likelihood of sediment chemistry causing adverse biological effects to bottom-dwelling animals and was conducted using national sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) for single contaminants and the mean SQG quotient approach to assess chemical mixtures. Sediment risk was negligible at the mouth of the estuary, but increased strongly landwards. The ecological/conservation value assessment was conducted to identify sites that warrant different levels of protection and was conducted using the value of ecological communities and priority waterway use. Consideration of these two parameters combined enabled the estuary to be prioritized for management attention. The prioritization and identification of appropriate management strategies were determined through the use of management matrices also based on sediment risk and ecological/conservation value. A computer package is being developed to provide managers with information on sediment risk, ecological/conservation value, the urgency and the type of management intervention required for any location in Sydney estuary, in real-time. This approach to estuarine management is unique and will greatly improve effective management of Sydney estuary, and other harbors in urgent need of management action and protection.     

Community resilience,land degradation and endogenous lock-in effects: evidence from the Alento region,Campania, Italy

This study analyses social, economic and political “lock-ins” for understanding community resilience and land degradation. The study focuses on lock-ins from within communities, using four case study communities in Italy affected by land degradation. The analysis highlights the complex interrelationships between various lock-ins, and suggests that the communities are on declining resilience pathways that may lead to increasing difficulties in addressing land degradation issues in future.     

A performance-based tabular approach for joint systematic improvement of risk control and resilience applied to telecommunication grid,gas network,and ultrasound localization system

Environment Systems and Decisions - Organizational and technical approaches have proven successful in increasing the performance and preventing risks at socio-technical systems at all scales....     

Value chain for next-generation biofuels: resilience and sustainability of the product life cycle

Multiple factors including climate change, price uncertainties, and geopolitical instability have prompted many industries to investigate the feasibility of replacing traditional petroleum-based fuels with biofuel alternatives. However, to make this transition successful, these new biofuels must be environmentally sustainable and the necessary support infrastructure must be in place to make the production, distribution, and storage of these biofuels technologically feasible and cost effective. Developing a value chain, spanning from feedstock production to distribution to end users, requires garnering buy-in from multiple stakeholders by demonstrating environmental, economic, and social benefits and incentives. Two critical factors are the environmental benefits achieved from the use of the biofuel technology and the degree of resilience of the value chain to emergent conditions to ensure steady supply to consumers. Moreover, different biofuel pathways have different costs, benefits, and risks which must be compared. In this paper, we describe how environmental sustainability can be modeled using life cycle assessment (LCA) and how the resilience of value chain initiatives can be modeled using a scenario-based decision model. We then describe how sustainability and resilience assessments can be integrated in an iterative, anticipatory LCA framework. These assessments can be used as the basis for a business case for various investments, as well as a means for promoting responsible innovations, with the aviation industry used as a case study.     

Trigger points and systemic effect for EMF therapy

The use of magnetic fields (MFs), in general, and electromagnetic fields (EMFs), in specific, as therapeutic modalities is becoming very common. In the USA, EMFs are mostly used in orthopedics, followed by pain relief and the wound-healing arena. Even though a substantial literature exists worldwide, we are still lacking the accepted comprehensive mechanism(s) of action. In general, it is thought that the best therapeutic effects are achieved when the stimulation is applied directly to the target area. Since the beginning of this century, however, more and more evidence has been collected indicating that effects of the MF stimulation may also be observed at site(s) different from the site of application of the signal. A primary purpose of this paper is to propose a link between the systemic and direct effects. The functional units known as trigger points are discussed as possible “doors” allowing the stimulation to be delivered to the target tissue/organ. A second purpose is to suggest some possible modes of action.     

Human actions, the survival of keystone species, and the resilience of ecological–economic systems

Human (managerial) actions affect the survival probabilities of the keystone species of an ecological–economic system. In turn, the well-being of these keystone species translates into the well-being or the resilience of the underlying ecological–economic system. What are the theoretical connections between human actions, keystone species survival, and the resilience of ecological–economic systems? In this note, we construct a simple stochastic model to draw out the links between this trinity.     

Brownfields: Risk, property, and community value

Brownfields have been the subject of intense interest across the United States. This paper attempts to look at some of the conceptual goal-oriented aspects of brownfields through the lens of risk to determine if it could serve as another way of exploring property use and community value. As such the paper is focused not on developing a theoretical framework to apply risk assessment techniques but rather on exploration of concepts. The context of brownfields is examined from several viewpoints: urban policy, federal/state government, city, property owner, redeveloper, community and individual. It is not a complete story but each viewpoint adds another dimension to the portrait of overall risk, which is composed of economic, environmental, social, health and political aspects.