A General Equilibrium Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Swiss Winter Tourism with Adaptation

Winter alpine tourism has been repeatedly identified as one of the economic sectors most at risk from climate change in Switzerland. However, all of the costs that have been estimated so far for the Swiss tourism sector are, to some extent, misleading as they do not, or only partially, incorporate adaptation possibilities and general equilibrium effects. We attempt to fill this gap using a computable general equilibrium model that is specifically designed for the purposes of this research. Our modeling efforts first consist in creating a tourism sector with a part of it being dependent on snow. We also carefully model the snowmaking technology. Using climate change scenarios on future snow cover, we analyze their impacts on the Swiss ski industry. We find welfare effects for the Swiss economy ranging from − 23 to 113 million CHF in 2050. This range arises from the use of various assumptions concerning adaptation possibilities. We also show that geographical substitutions between international ski destinations have large positive effects for Switzerland. From a more general perspective, our results exemplify the risks of estimating the consequences of climate change based only on domestic impacts of climate change with no adaptation being implemented.

     

The Climate Impacts of Sulfate Aerosols

Sulfate aerosols (SO₄) from anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) generally have a cooling effect. However, if SO₂ emissions fall over time, accounting for sulfate aerosols will increase the predicted warming from greenhouse gases. This paper integrates the four marker emission scenarios for CO₂ and SO₄ from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), the UIUC general circulation model (GCM), and a country-specific impact model (GIM) to calculate the impacts of sulfate aerosols. By 2100, lower SO₂ emissions slightly increase warming in the temperate and polar regions causing small damages in the former and small benefits in the latter. If SO₂ emissions are also lower in tropical regions, temperatures will rise causing small damages there as well. However, if SO₂ emissions rise in tropical regions, temperatures will fall leading to small benefits. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modeling of non-point source pollution in a Mediterranean drainage basin

SWAT ver. 2000 was used to predict hydrographs, and sediment, nitrate and total phosphorus loadings from a 1349 km² mountainous/agricultural watershed in Northern Greece. The model was calibrated and verified using continuous meteorological data from eight stations within the drainage area, and runoff, sediment and nutrient concentrations measured at nine stations located within the main tributaries of the watershed, for the time period from May 1st, 1998 to January 31st, 2000. Model validation methodology and resulting input parameters appropriate for Mediterranean drainage basins are presented. Predicted by the model hydrographs, sedimentographs and pollutographs are plotted against observed values and show good agreement. Model performance is evaluated using the root mean square error computation and scattergrams of predicted versus observed data. The validated model is also used to test the effectiveness of three alternative cropping scenarios in reducing nutrient loadings from the agricultural part of the watershed. The study showed that this model, if properly validated, can be used effectively in testing management scenarios in Mediterranean drainage basins.     

Modeling of Ecological Footprint and Climate Change Impacts on Food Security of the Hill Tracts of Chittagong in Bangladesh

This paper presents an integrated and dynamic model for the management of the uplands of the Hill Tracts of Chittagong to predict food security and environmental loading for gradual transition of shifting agriculture land into horticulture crops and teak plantation, and crop land into tobacco cultivation. Food security status for gradual transmission of shifting agriculture land into horticulture crops and teak plantation, and crop land into tobacco cultivation is the best option for food security, but this causes the highest environmental loading resulting from tobacco cultivation. Considering both food security and environmental degradation in terms of ecological footprint, the best option is gradual transition of shifting agriculture land into horticulture crops which provides moderate increase in the food security with a relatively lower environmental degradation in terms of ecological footprint. Crop growth model InfoCrop was used to predict the climate change impacts on rice and maize production in the uplands of the Hill Tracts of Chittagong. Climate change impacts on the yields of rice and maize of three treatments of temperature, carbon dioxide and rainfall change (+0 °C, +0 ppm and +0 % rainfall), (+2 °C, +50 ppm and 20 % rainfall) and (+2 °C, +100 ppm and 30 % rainfall) were assessed. The yield of rice decreases for treatment 2, but it increases for treatment 3. The yield of maize increases for treatments 2 and 3 since maize is a C₄ plant. There is almost no change in food security at upazila (sub-district) level for the historical climate change scenario, but there is small change in the food security at upazila levels for IPCC climate change scenario.     

Impacts of intensive agricultural irrigation and livestock farming on a semi-arid Mediterranean catchment

Irrigation return flows (IRF) are a major contributor of non-point source pollution to surface and groundwater. We evaluated the effects of irrigation on stream hydrochemistry in a Mediterranean semi-arid catchment (Flumen River, NE Spain). The Flumen River was separated into two zones based on the intensity of irrigation activities in the watershed. General linear models were used to compare the two zones. Relevant covariables (urban sewage, pig farming, and gypsum deposits in the basin) were quantified with the help of geographic information system techniques, accompanied by ground-truthing. High variability of the water quality parameters and temporal dynamics caused by irrigation were used to distinguish the two river reaches. Urban activity and livestock farming had a significant effect on water chemistry. An increase in the concentration of salts (240–541 μS·cm^???1 more in winter) and nitrate (average concentrations increased from 8.5 to 20.8 mg·l^???1 during irrigation months) was associated with a higher level of IRF. Those river reaches more strongly influenced by urban areas tended to have higher phosphorus (0.19–0.42 mg·l^???1 more in winter) concentrations. These results support earlier research about the significant consequences to water quality of both urban expansion and intensive agricultural production in arid and semi-arid regions. Data also indicate that salinization of soils, subsoils, surface water, and groundwater can be an unwelcome result of the application of pig manure for fertilization (increase in sodium concentration in 77.9 to 138.6 mg·l^???1).     

Study of the Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality in the Upstream Portion of the Cau River Basin,Vietnam

This paper presents simulations of climate change impacts on water quality in the upstream portion of the Cau River Basin in the North of Vietnam. The integrated modeling system GIBSI was used to simulate hydrological processes, pollutant and sediment wash-off in the river basin, and pollutant transport and transformation in the river network. Three projections for climate change based on emission scenarios B1, B2, and A2 of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were considered. By assuming that the input pollution sources and watershed configuration were constant, based on 2008 data, water quality in the river network was simulated up to the terminal year 2050. For each climate change scenario, patterns of precipitation in wet and dry year were considered. The change in annual and monthly trends for dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and ammonium ions (NH4+) load and concentration for different portions of the watershed have been analyzed. The results of these simulations show that climate change has more impact on changing the seasonal water quality parameters than on altering the average annual load of the pollutants. The percent change and change pattern in water quality parameters are different for wet and dry year, and the changes in wet year are smaller than those in dry year.     

Modeling Ethylene Bisdithiocarbamate Efficacy Potential in the Presence of a Zoospore Attractant

A common class of fungicides are the ethylene bisdithiocarbamates (EBDCs) which decompose into ethylene bis-isothiocyanate sulfide (EBIS). EBIS is the primary fungitoxic component which is effective on various life stages of oomycete fungi, including zoospores (primary infection agents of oomycete fungal diseases). It is hypothesized that increased fungicide effectiveness can occur if zoospores are attracted to the toxicant (site of fungicide deposition) through chemotaxis using zoospore attractants (ZAs). Several probe studies proved this hypothesis when a ZA was formulated with EBDC products. A highly effective zoospore attractant is isovaleraldehyde (IVA), but IVA is volatile and dissipates rapidly in the environment. Therefore, various precursors for IVA and EBIS were studied to characterize the transient production and decline of EBIS and IVA from precursor material. First-order kinetic material balances and a stochastic modeling tool are created to fully exploit the conditions when the overlap of EBIS and IVA is maximized. A metric is proposed (measure of the overlap of fungicide and ZA residue) as an indirect measure of the potential for preventative fungicide efficacy when ZAs are included within the formulation. Therefore, fungicide formulations containing a ZA can be designed through model deployment that considers the production and decline patterns of both the fungicide and ZA, and the daily environmental dew cycle responsible for achieving the maximum concentration overlap when zoospores are the most infectious (e.g., mobile in the presence of dew) for enhanced crop disease control. It is found that the poly-IVA produrg investigated provides the maximum overlap of EBIS and IVA residues for many different EBDC formulations investigated. This modeling approach, and the examples provided for EBIS and IVA material balances, can be expanded for different fungicides and ZAs allowing for cause/effect to be inferred from multiple interacting factors, and formulations can be designed for optimal release characteristics that maximize the overlap of fungitoxic material and zoospore attractant.     

Climate Change Impacts and Human Settlements in Africa: Prospects for Adaptation

Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector home diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments.Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations.Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy.Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation.The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities.Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared.Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa.     

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Residential Energy Consumption in Dhaka City

This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on residential energy consumption in Dhaka city of Bangladesh. The monthly electricity consumption data for the period 2011–2014 and long-term climate variables namely monthly rainfall and temperature records (1961–2010) were used in the study. An ensemble of six global circulation models (GCMs) of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) namely, BCCCSM1-1, CanESM2, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were used to project future changes in rainfall and temperature. The regression models describing the relationship between historical energy consumption and climate variables were developed to project future changes in energy consumptions. The results revealed that daily energy consumption in Dhaka city increases in the range of 6.46–11.97 and 2.37–6.25 MkWh at 95% level of confidence for every increase of temperature by 1 °C and daily average rainfall by 1 mm, respectively. This study concluded that daily total residential energy demand and peak demand in Dhaka city can increase up to 5.9–15.6 and 5.1–16.7%, respectively, by the end of this century under different climate change scenarios.     

吐鲁番盆地水资源利用对策初探

就干旱缺水的吐鲁番盆地水资源利用问题提出了一些建议。     

中国西北地区水资源的开发和利用

我国西北地区地广人稀,水资源比较贫乏,而且时空分布极不均匀,极大地影响了该地区人民的生活,限制了该地区的经济开发,因此大力开发西北地区面临的首要问题即水资源问题。本文从西北地区水资源的自然分布、开发利用水资源中存在的问题及有效的解决途径三方面进行了简要的综述。     

淮北市水资源保护与规划

系统论述了淮北市水资源现状和存在问题,提出了保护水资源环境、促进可持续发展而采取的有效工程措施。     

新疆某县河流水质现状评价及其变化趋势分析

利用新疆某县境内主要河流的水质监测资料,依据水质评价标准《地表水环境质量标准》(GB 3838-2002),评价了某县境内主要河流的环境质量,采用季节性肯达尔法进行趋势分析检验。结果表明,新疆某县境内河流水质总体优良,水质级别为Ⅰ、Ⅱ类,可以作为饮用水源地、农田灌溉用水、一般工业用水的水源。从趋势分析检验结果看,水质基本稳定,没有受到明显的人为污染。     

长春市水资源可持续利用对策

在对长春市水资源概况及其开发利用现状进行简要分析的基础上,识别出长春市水资源开发利用中的一些问题,并提出了开源节流,治理污染,调整工业布局,控制城市规模等长春市水资源可持续利用对策。     

Impact of Global Climate Change on China's Water Resources

It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m³ in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area.     

新疆地下水资源动态及管理

分析了新疆地下水的水位,水量及水质变化动态,并针对相关的环境问题进行了相应的科学管理方法。     

嘉善前体物与气象因子对臭氧生成的影响及臭氧潜在源区分析

利用2017年嘉善善西超级站臭氧(O₃)及其前体物(NO_x和VOCs)以及气象因子(温度、湿度、风速)逐小时数据,分析了2017年全年NO_x和O₃的变化特征以及春季(4—5月)、夏季(7—8月) NO_x和气象因子对O₃生成的影响,利用O₃生成潜势(OFP)评估了VOCs大气化学反应活性,并通过潜在源区贡献(PSCF)和浓度权重轨迹(CWT)方法分析了嘉善春、夏季O₃潜在源区贡献特征。研究发现:O₃日变化特征为单峰结构,NO_x为弱双峰结构。O₃浓度在3—9月较高,春、夏季O₃浓度峰值分别出现在15:00和14:00,春、夏季的NO_x、O₃日变化与2017年全年日变化趋势基本一致。NO_x对O₃存在滴定作用,且低湿高温有利于O₃     

Numerical Modeling of a Potential Geological CO 2 Sequestration Site at Minden (Germany)

We study opportunities for CO₂ sequestration in geological formations of the state North Rhine Westphalia in Germany. Simulations are performed for evaluating a potential site within the Bunter sandstone formation near the town of Minden in a depth?of around 3,000 m using the numerical simulator TOUGHREACT. Our focus is on three CO₂ storage mechanisms: (1) hydrodynamic trapping, (2) dissolution trapping, and (3) mineral trapping. The results show that due to buoyancy the injected CO₂ phase initially migrates towards the top of the reservoir and is hydrodynamically trapped beneath the confining layer of the cap rock. Then, the CO₂ spreads laterally and dissolves partially in the formation water. The dissolution of CO₂ results in an increase of the density of the brine causing a downward migration until it settles after 10,000 years at the bottom of the reservoir. The simulations indicate that after 10,000 years, 15% (17 Mt) from a total of 114 Mt injected CO₂ are trapped hydrodynamically, 20% (23 Mt) are trapped by dissolution, and 65% (74 Mt) are fixed in newly formed carbonates such as dawsonite, ankerite, and siderite. Within our study pressure increases near the injection well by a factor of 1.1 which is lower than the upper limit usually accepted in gas storage operations. The mineral reactions cause a net decrease of porosity and in turn a decrease of permeability down to 9% of the initial value in parts of the reservoir.