What is the lesson from the unprecedented event over antarctica in 2002

Varotsos (2002a,b), suggested that both the smaller-sized ozone hole over Antarctica and its splitting in two holes in September 2002 occurred due to an unprecedented major sudden stratospheric warming caused by very strong planetary waves propagated in the southern hemisphere. Subsequently, a NASA press release of December 6, 2002, also reported the prevalence of very strong planetary waves in Antarctica. The aim of this Letter is to further discuss the morphology of the Antarctic ozone hole, to detect the causes that allowed the Antarctic stratosphere to exhibit this exceptional warming and to examine what it denotes about its mechanisms. Concerning the morphology, among the principal findings is that the ozone hole split occurred not only in the stratosphere but extended in the lower altitudes (upper troposphere). As to the causes of the major sudden stratospheric warming of 2002, a comparison with the previous warmings in Antarctica since 1964 is made. The smaller-sized Antarctic ozone hole of 2002 is approximately equal to that of 1988 when a strong sudden stratospheric warming occurred. If only the destruction of ozone by chlorofluorocarbons resulted in the delayed sudden stratospheric warmings in Antarctica, then the early sudden stratospheric warmings of 1988 and 2002 would not have occurred, since chlorofluorocarbon loading of the stratosphere has remained relatively stable in recent years. Furthermore, it appears that the El Nino characteristics in 1988 and 2002 are not similar.     

The southern hemisphere ozone hole split in 2002

Among the most important aspects of the atmospheric pollution problem are the anthropogenic impacts on the stratospheric ozone layer, the related trends of the total ozone content drop and the solar ultraviolet radiation enhancement at the Earth's surface level. During September 2002, the ozone hole over the Antarctic was much smaller than in the previous six years. It has split into two separate holes, due to the appearance of sudden stratospheric warming that has never been observed before in the southern hemisphere. The analysis of this unprecedented event is attempted, regarding both the meteorological and photochemical aspects, in terms of the unusual thermal field patterns and the induced polar vortex disturbances.     

Climatic effect of observed changes in atmospheric trace gases at Antarctica

The seasonal decline in ozone in the Antarctic atmosphere has been termed the ‘Antarctic ozone hole’. Possibly this hole is caused by upper atmospheric wind, due to resumption of high solar activity after the polar night which produces large amounts of ozone-destroying nitric oxide or due to unusual chlorine chemistry at extreme cold temperatures and associated polar stratospheric clouds. Of particular concern is that the observed changes in ozone could be linked to the observed increases in the gases that affect ozone such as methane, nitrous oxide, etc. All these gases affect the climate of the Earth through their so-called ‘greenhouse’ action. We have examined the nature of the greenhouse effect on polar climate due to observed changes in atmospheric trace gases in Antarctica which are reported here.     

What is causing high ozone at Summit,Greenland?

Causes for the unusually high and seasonally anomalous ozone concentrations at Summit, Greenland were investigated. Surface data from continuous monitoring, ozone sonde data, tethered balloon vertical profiling data, correlation of ozone with the radionuclide tracers ⁷Be and ²¹⁰Pb, and synoptic transport analysis were used to identify processes that contribute to sources and sinks of ozone at Summit. Northern Hemisphere (NH) lower free troposphere ozone mixing ratios in the polar regions are ∼20 ppbv higher than in Antarctica. Ozone at Summit, which is at 3212 m above sea level, reflects its altitude location in the lower free troposphere. Transport events that bring high ozone and dry air, likely from lower stratospheric/higher tropospheric origin, were observed ∼40% of time during June 2000. Comparison of ozone enhancements with radionuclide tracer records shows a year-round correlation of ozone with the stratospheric tracer ⁷Be. Summit lacks the episodic, sunrise ozone depletion events, which were found to reduce the annual, median ozone at NH coastal sites by up to ∼3 ppbv. Synoptic trajectory analyses indicated that, under selected conditions, Summit encounters polluted continental air with increased ozone from central and western Europe. Low ozone surface deposition fluxes over long distances upwind of Summit reduce ozone deposition losses in comparison to other NH sites, particularly during the summer months. Surface-layer photochemical ozone production does not appear to have a noticeable influence on Summit's ozone levels.     

The role of halogen species in the troposphere

While the role of reactive halogen species (e.g. Cl, Br) in the destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer is well known, their role in the troposphere was investigated only since their destructive effect on boundary layer ozone after polar sunrise became obvious. During these 'Polar Tropospheric Ozone Hole' events O(3) is completely destroyed in the lowest approximately 1000 m of the atmosphere on areas of several million square kilometres. Up to now it was assumed that these events were confined to the polar regions during springtime. However, during the last few years significant amounts of BrO and Cl-atoms were also found outside the Arctic and Antarctic boundary layer. Recently even higher BrO mixing ratios (up to 176 ppt) were detected by optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) in the Dead Sea basin during summer. In addition, evidence is accumulating that BrO (at levels around 1-2 ppt) is also occurring in the free troposphere at all latitudes.In contrast to the stratosphere, where halogens are released from species, which are very long lived in the troposphere, likely sources of boundary layer Br and Cl are autocatalytic oxidation of sea salt halides (the 'Bromine Explosion'), while precursors of free tropospheric BrO and coastal IO probably are short-lived organo-halogen species. At the levels suggested by the available measurements reactive halogen species have a profound effect on tropospheric chemistry: In the polar boundary layer during 'halogen events' ozone is usually completely lost within hours or days. In the free troposphere the effective O(3)-losses due to halogens could be comparable to the known photochemical O(3) destruction. Further interesting consequences include the increase of OH levels and (at low NO(X)) the decrease of the HO(2)/OH ratio in the free troposphere.     

Impact of ozone mini-holes on the heterogeneous destruction of stratospheric ozone

A comprehensive study of ozone mini-holes over the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres is presented, based on model simulations with the coupled climate-chemistry model ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM representing atmospheric conditions in 1960, 1980, 1990 and 2015. Ozone mini-holes are synoptic-scale regions of strongly reduced total ozone, directly associated with tropospheric weather systems. Mini-holes are supposed to have chemical and dynamical impacts on ozone levels. Since ozone levels over northern mid-latitudes show a negative trend of approximately -4%/decade and since it exists a negative correlation between total column ozone and erythemally active solar UV-radiation reaching the surface it is important to understand and assess the processes leading to the observed ozone decline. The simulated mini-hole events are validated with a mini-hole climatology based on daily ozone measurements with the TOMS (total ozone mapping spectrometer) instrument on the satellite Nimbus-7 between 1979 and 1993. Furthermore, possible trends in the event frequency and intensity over the simulation period are assessed. In the northern hemisphere the number of mini-hole events in early winter decreases between 1960 and 1990 and increases towards 2015. In the southern hemisphere a positive trend in mini-hole event frequency is detected between 1960 and 2015 in spring associated with the increasing Antarctic Ozone Hole. Finally, the impact of mini-holes on the stratospheric heterogeneous ozone chemistry is investigated. For this purpose, a computer-based detection routine for mini-holes was developed for the use in ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM. This method prevents polar stratospheric cloud formation and therefore heterogeneous ozone depletion inside mini-holes. Heterogeneous processes inside mini-holes amount to one third of heterogeneous ozone destruction in general over northern mid- and high-latitudes during winter (January-April) in the simulation.     

Variability of tropospheric hydroperoxides at a coastal surface site in Antarctica

The annual cycles of hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) and methylhydroperoxide (MHP) have been investigated at a remote site in Antarctica in order to study seasonal variations as well as chemical processes in the troposphere. The measurements have been performed from March 1997 to January 1998 and in February 1999 at the German Antarctic research station Neumayer which is located at 70°39′S, 8°15′W. The obtained time series for hydrogen peroxide and methylhydroperoxide in near-surface air represents the first all-year measurements in Antarctica and indicates clearly the occurrence of seasonal variations. During polar night mean values of 0.054±0.046 ppbv (range<0.03–0.11 ppbv) for hydrogen peroxide and 0.089±0.052 ppbv (range<0.05–0.14 ppbv) for methylhydroperoxide were detected. At the sunlit period higher Mixing ratios were found, 0.20±0.13 ppbv (range<0.03–0.91 ppbv) for hydrogen peroxide and 0.19±0.10 ppbv (range<0.05–0.89 ppbv) for methylhydroperoxide. Occasional long-range transport of air masses from mid-latitudes caused enhanced peroxide concentrations at polar night. During the period of stratospheric ozone depletion we observed peroxide mixing ratios comparable to typical winter levels.     

A review of surface ozone in the polar regions

Surface ozone records from ten polar research stations were investigated for the dependencies of ozone on radiative processes, snow-photochemisty, and synoptic and stratospheric transport. A total of 146 annual data records for the Arctic sites Barrow, Alaska; Summit, Greenland; Alert, Canada; Zeppelinfjellet, Norway; and the Antarctic stations Halley, McMurdo, Neumayer, Sanae, Syowa, and South Pole were analyzed. Mean ozone at the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stations (excluding Summit) is ∼5 ppbv higher than in Antarctica. Statistical analysis yielded best estimates for the projected year 2005 median annual ozone mixing ratios, which for the Arctic stations were 33.5 ppbv at Alert, 28.6 ppbv at Barrow, 46.3 ppbv ppb at Summit and 33.7 ppbv at Zeppelinfjellet. For the Antarctic stations the corresponding ozone mixing ratios were 21.6 ppbv at Halley, 27.0 ppbv at McMurdo, 24.9 ppbv at Neumayer, 27.2 ppbv at Sanae, 29.4 ppbv at South Pole, and 25.8 ppbv at Syowa. At both Summit (3212 m asl) and South Pole (2830 m asl), annual mean ozone is higher than at the lower elevation and coastal stations. A trend analysis revealed that all sites in recent years have experienced low to moderate increases in surface ozone ranging from 0.02 to 0.26 ppbv yr⁻¹, albeit none of these changes were found to be statistically significant trends. A seasonal trend analysis showed above-average increases in ozone during the spring and early summer periods for both Arctic (Alert, Zeppelinfjellet) and Antarctic (McMurdo, Neumayer, South Pole) sites. In contrast, at Barrow, springtime ozone has been declining. All coastal stations experience springtime episodes with rapid depletion of ozone in the boundary layer, attributable to photochemically catalyzed ozone depletion from halogen chemistry. This effect is most obvious at Barrow, followed by Alert. Springtime depletion episodes are less pronounced at Antarctic stations. At South Pole, during the Antarctic spring and summer, photochemical ozone production yields frequent episodes with enhanced surface ozone. Other Antarctic stations show similar, though less frequent spring and summertime periods with enhanced ozone. The Antarctic data provide evidence that austral spring and summertime ozone production in Antarctica is widespread, respectively, affects all stations at least through transport events. This ozone production contributes to a several ppbv enhancement in the annual mean ozone over the Antarctic plateau; however, it is not the determining process in the Antarctic seasonal ozone cycle. Although Summit and South Pole have many similarities in their environmental conditions, this ozone production does not appear to be of equal importance at Summit. Amplitudes of diurnal, summertime ozone cycles at these polar sites are weaker than at lower latitude locations. Amplitudes of seasonal ozone changes are larger in the Southern Hemisphere (by ∼5 ppbv), most likely due to less summertime photochemical ozone loss and more transport of ozone-rich air to the Arctic during the NH spring and summer months.     

The stratospheric ozone layer-an overview

This paper summarises the knowledge on the properties of the stratospheric ozone layer. Dynamic, chemical, and microphysical aspects are reviewed with emphasis on chemistry. The questions addressed are as follows. Do we have a quantitative understanding of the Antarctic ozone hole? What lies behind the trend of slowly decreasing ozone columns over northern mid-latitudes? To what degree was chemistry responsible for the extremely low ozone levels over northern Europe in January 1992? The discovery of the ozone hole in 1985 exposed scientific neglect of the category of fast heterogeneous reactions taking place on particulate matter in the stratosphere. But even now after the wide acceptance of some heterogeneous reactions it is difficult to fully account for the rate at which Antarctic ozone is depleted each year in August. After reviewing the known heterogeneous reactions, possible hitherto unrecognised mechanisms are briefly outlined. The paper also includes a discussion of the chemical reactions which can occur even under relatively warm conditions on the ubiquitous, stratospheric aerosol particles and which could contribute to the observed mid-latitudinal ozone depletion. Finally, the paper underlines the importance of dynamic processes, that is, horizontal transport and vertical adiabatic motion, which appear to be the main cause of the anomalously low northern hemispheric ozone values during the 1991/1992 winter.     

Depletion of stratospheric ozone over the Antarctic and Arctic: responses of plants of polar terrestrial ecosystems to enhanced UV-B, an overview

Depletion of stratospheric ozone over the Antarctic has been re-occurring yearly since 1974, leading to enhanced UV-B radiation. Arctic ozone depletion has been observed since 1990. Ozone recovery has been predicted by 2050, but no signs of recovery occur. Here we review responses of polar plants to experimentally varied UV-B through supplementation or exclusion. In supplementation studies comparing ambient and above ambient UV-B, no effect on growth occurred. UV-B-induced DNA damage, as measured in polar bryophytes, is repaired overnight by photoreactivation. With UV exclusion, growth at near ambient may be less than at below ambient UV-B levels, which relates to the UV response curve of polar plants. UV-B screening foils also alter PAR, humidity, and temperature and interactions of UV with environmental factors may occur. Plant phenolics induced by solar UV-B, as in pollen, spores and lignin, may serve as a climate proxy for past UV. Since the Antarctic and Arctic terrestrial ecosystems differ essentially, (e.g. higher species diversity and more trophic interactions in the Arctic), generalization of polar plant responses to UV-B needs caution.     

A lagrangian approach to analyse the tropospheric ozone climatology in the tropics: Climatology of stratosphere–troposphere exchange at Reunion Island

Sixteen years of ozone measurements (1992–2006) at Reunion Island (21°S, 55.5°E) have been processed to detect stratospheric signatures on each single ozone profile.The characterisation method consists in the advection of the potential vorticity (PV) over two to ten days of backtrajectory with the lagrangian trajectory code LACYTRAJ. LACYTRAJ is a Trajectory-Reverse Domain Filling code using the ERA40 ECMWF database and allowing the reconstruction of high resolution advected PV profiles. Correlation between high values of ozone mixing ratio and high PV is interpreted as a stratospheric signature.A climatology of STE events at Reunion has been derived and reveals that STE events occur more frequently during spring (SON) and summer (DJF). The method is tested for a set of PV threshold values (i.e. 1 PVU, 1.5 PVU and 2 PVU) and for a set of duration of backtrajectories (i.e. 2 days, 5 days and 10 days). The number of detected STE is sensitive to PV threshold values and duration criterions. For instance, the number of stratospheric intrusions detected in October with a 1.5 PVU criterion ranges between 25% (2 days of backtrajectories) and 56% (10 days of backtrajectories). The vertical distributions of STE show intrusions covering the whole free troposphere (between 7 and 15 km) and mainly located in the upper troposphere.Finally, results show that an important number of stratospheric intrusions are detected during spring and in the upper troposphere what points at the contribution of the stratospheric source to the tropospheric ozone spring maximum which is strongly influenced by the biomass burning emissions from South Africa and Madagascar.     

Closing Remarks

Considerable attention has been paid in recent years to photochemical smog pollution close to the earth's surface and to stratospheric ozone depletion. There is reason to suspect that the next round of scientific concern will be devoted to the perturbations in the “free troposphere.” Tropospheric ozone has been building up in many regions of the northern hemisphere. Ozone changes in the upper troposphere will exert a considerable impact on global warming. This could affect moisture levels, cloud amount and distribution, precipitation, and atmospheric dynamics on different scales.

This paper analyzes: (1) the physical and chemical processes contributing to changes in tropospheric ozone concentration; (2) the observational evidence of previous ozone change; and (3) results drawn from computer modelling of past and future radiative forcing caused by rising ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere.

The solar and longwave radiative model developed by Wang et al. (1991) was used for calculating the change in radiative forcing to the troposphere-surface system that can be ascribed to changing concentrations in ozone and other greenhouse gases. Nitric oxide emission from aircraft are a prime suspect for the observed increases in upper tropospheric ozone. The inference can be drawn that a radiative forcing of 0.2 to 0.35 Wm^-2 will result from a doubling of aircraft emissions over the next two decades. This will amount to 10 to 25 percent of the radiative forcing attributable to CO₂ alone for the same period. The effect of doubling aircraft emissions will increase as stratospheric ozone concentrations recover from the recent buildup of harmful chlorofluorocarbons. A large fraction of the radiative forcing that occurred during the 1970 to 1990 period can be attributed to increases in tropospheric ozone as opposed to increases in other greenhouse gases.     

Intrusions of stratospheric air into Alaska's troposphere,March 1983

During the Arctic Gas and Aerosol Sampling Program (AGASP) in March 1983, two distinctly different mechanisms for transporting stratospheric air into the Arctic troposphere were documented. A tropopause folding event, associated with an Arctic front, injected ‘perturbed’ polar stratospheric air into the troposphere. This perturbed polar stratospheric air was characterized by enhanced condensation nuclei concentrations (up to 1800 cm⁻³), enhanced aerosol light scattering (up to 90 × 10⁻⁶m⁻¹), and crustal aerosol particles of probable volcanic origin.The second mechanism, large-scale anticyclonic subsidence, transported relatively ‘clean’ stratospheric air into the Arctic troposphere. This clean stratospheric air was characterized by relatively low condensation nuclei concentrations (maximum of 300 cm⁻³), low aerosol light scattering ([5–7] × 10⁻⁶ m⁻¹), and the absence of detectable crustal particles.     

A DFT study of the reactions of O3 with Hg° or Br

In the mid 1980s the study of ozone reactivity gained a significant interest with the discoveries of the stratospheric ozone hole (Farman et al., 1985) and of the ozone depletion events in the polar boundary layer (Oltmans et al., 1989). In the stratosphere, the mechanism involves heterogeneous reactions on polar stratospheric clouds that lead to chlorine activation (Solomon et al., 1986). In contrast, tropospheric ozone depletion occurring during polar springtime rather involves reactive bromine species. They are released during a series of photochemical and heterogeneous reactions often called the bromine explosion (see the review of Simpson et al., 2007). In this reaction sequence, an essential step is the generation of photolyzable Br₂, the precursor of two Br atoms, via the multiphasic reaction (1):

(1)

HOBr + Br⁻ + H⁺ → H₂O + Br₂

The production of reactive HOBr could occur with the oxidation of BrO by HO₂.     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins,dibenzofurans and polychlorinated biphenyls in polar bear,penguin and south polar skua

Concentrations of 2378-substituted polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (DFs) and non- and mono-ortho-substituted polychlorinated biphenyls (dioxin-like PCBs) were measured in livers of polar bears from the Alaskan Arctic and in eggs of Adelie penguin and south polar skua and weddell seal liver, fish and krill from Antarctica. This is one of the first reports to document the concentrations of PCDDs/DFs in polar bear livers from Alaska, and in penguin and skua eggs from Antarctica. Concentrations of total PCDD/DFs in livers of polar bears ranged from 8 to 66 (mean: 26) pg/g, on a lipid weight basis. Concentrations of total PCDD/DFs in Antarctic samples were in the increasing order on a lipid weight basis; weddell seal liver (8.9 pg/g) < fish (11-17 pg/g) < krill (27 pg/g) > penguin eggs (30 ng/g) > seal liver (57 ng/g) > fishes (6.2 ng/g) > krill (0.9 ng/g). Concentrations of 2378-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin equivalents (TEQs) calculated based on the WHO TEFs were higher in the eggs of polar skua (mean: 344: range: 220-650 pg/g, lipid wt.) from Antarctica than in polar bear livers from Alaska (mean: 120; range: 69-192 pg/g). In general, concentrations of PCDFs were greater than those of PCDDs in polar organisms. 23478-PeCDF is one of the dominant congener found in several samples. Concentrations of TEQs in polar bear livers and skua eggs were close to those that may cause adverse health effects. Dioxin-like PCBs, particularly, non-ortho coplanar PCBs were the major contributors to TEQ concentrations in penguin and skua eggs whereas mono-ortho PCBs accounted for a major portion of TEQs in polar bear livers.     

Simulations of stratospheric to tropospheric transport during the tropical cyclone Marlene event

Enhanced ozone values observed in the upper troposphere near intense tropical cyclones have raised the question of the role of stratospheric–tropospheric exchange. The dynamical mechanisms involved in the enhanced ozone values of 6 April 1995 observed at Reunion and associated with the tropical cyclone Marlene could not be explained by ECMWF meteorological analysis with 1.125° horizontal resolution. A previous study based on the ECHAM model has demonstrated the impact of biomass burning, but of limited amplitude (<60–80 ppbv max). In this paper, the upper tropospheric ozone enhancement on the periphery of Marlene has been studied with a mesoscale model (MESO-NH). This model is able to reproduce a stratospheric PV filament into the troposphere, crossing the isentropes to the 350 K level. The ageostrophic circulation associated with divergence zones that have induced vertical movements has been shown. Further, the influence of vertical wind shear, evident in both the mesoscale analysis and in the idealized HURRICANE tropical cyclone model, also contributes to our understanding of this downward transport process.     

Impact of vertical transport processes on the tropospheric ozone layering above Europe.: Part II: Climatological analysis of the past 30 years

Using the set of multivariate criteria described in a companion paper, ozone-rich layers detected in tropospheric soundings are clustered according to their stratospheric or boundary layer origin. An additional class for aged tropospheric air masses is also considered. This analysis is exclusively based on the measured physical properties of the layers. The database includes 27,000 ozone profiles collected above 11 European stations—two of which provide measurements since 1970. The seasonal cycle of the tropospheric ozone stratification exhibits a clear summer maximum. This increase is due to aged tropospheric air masses that are more frequently detected, suggesting an enhanced lifetime of layers in summer. In terms of ozone content, the relative impact of stratospheric ozone compared to the other sources is highest in winter while export from the boundary layer presents a uniform seasonal cycle. Altitude and thickness distributions of the layers are consistent with the dynamical processes involved in the layering. Northernmost and southernmost stations are more exposed to stratospheric air intrusions into the free troposphere. Long-term trends show that transport from the tropopause region has increased since the mid 1980s. This trend being concomitant with lower ozone content of such layers, a moderate trend of the transport efficiency from the stratosphere on total tropospheric ozone is observed. The increase of ozone detected in tropospheric layers since the mid 1980s cannot be attributed to any recent export process from either the stratosphere or the boundary layer but rather to enhanced photochemical production in aged air masses or to an increase in the lifetime of the layers.     

Background ozone levels of air entering the west coast of the US and assessment of longer-term changes

An analysis of surface ozone measurements at a west coast site in northern California (Trinidad Head) demonstrates that this location is well situated to sample air entering the west coast of the US from the Pacific Ocean. During the seasonal maximum in the spring, this location regularly observes hourly average ozone mixing ratios 50 ppbv in air that is uninfluenced by the North American continent. Mean daytime values in the spring exceed 40 ppbv. A location in southern California (Channel Islands National Park) demonstrates many of the characteristics during the spring as Trinidad Head in terms of air flow patterns and ozone amounts suggesting that background levels of ozone entering southern California from the Pacific Ocean are similar to those in northern California. Two inland locations (Yreka and Lassen Volcanic National Park) in northern California with surface ozone data records of 20 years or more are more difficult to interpret because of possible influences of local or regional changes. They show differing results for the long-term trend during the spring. The 10-year ozone vertical profile measurements obtained with weekly ozonesondes at Trinidad Head show no significant longer-term change in tropospheric ozone.     

Halogenated compounds and climate change: future emission levels and reduction costs

OBJECTIVES: This work assesses the contribution to climate change resulting from emissions of the group of halogenated greenhouse gases. METHODS: A bottom-up emission model covering 22 technological sectors in four major regions is described. Emission estimates for 1996 and projection for 2010 and 2020 are presented. The costs for deep cuts into projected emission levels are calculated. RESULTS: The substances covered by this study have contributed emissions of 1100 +/- 800 MT CO2 equivalents per year in 1996. In terms of their relative contribution to emissions of CO2 equivalents, this corresponds to 3 +/- 2% of global emissions of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The wide range of uncertainty is due to the poorly quantified net global warming potential of the ozone depleting substances, which have an indirect cooling effect on climate through the destruction of stratospheric ozone. For annual emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (which are regulated under the Kyoto Protocol and for which global warming potentials are well defined), the relative contribution is projected to increase to 2% (600 MT CO2 eq.) of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2010. This trend is expected to continue, emissions are projected to grow to a contribution of roughly 3% (870 MT CO2 eq.) in 2020 compared to 0.9% (300 MT CO2 eq.) in 1996. For HFCs, PFCs and SF6, this study identifies global emission reduction potentials of 260 MT CO2 eq. per year in 2010 and 640 MT CO2 eq. per year in 2020 at below US$ 50 per ton. These values correspond to roughly 40% and 75% of projected emissions in 2010 and 2020, respectively.