Population dynamics of splitnose rockfish (Sebastes diploproa) in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

We developed an age-structured population model of splitnose rockfish, Sebastes diploproa, in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Splitnose rockfish is a bycatch species that co-occurs with several commercially important species that are currently declared overfished. Bycatch species are typically not the focus of stock assessment efforts because of their limited economic importance, but they may suffer the same population declines as species with which they co-occur. To examine the dynamics of splitnose rockfish for the first time, we analyzed data from three groundfish fisheries and four research surveys conducted in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. To develop a model, we used Stock Synthesis, a statistical framework for the construction of a population dynamics models utilizing both fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data. In the model, we reconstructed the total catch of the species back to 1900, estimated the dynamics of the stock spawning output and recruitment and evaluated biomass depletion relative to the stock's unfished state, as well as sources of uncertainty in model outputs. The results indicate that the splitnose rockfish is currently not overfished even though it has experienced several periods of abrupt decline in its biomass. Revisiting age data from earlier years, monitoring fishery discard, and investigating the spatial dynamics of splitnose rockfish is important to further improve the understanding of this species’ population dynamics, and decrease uncertainty in model results.     

Predation, habitat complexity, and variation in density-dependent mortality of temperate reef fishes

Density dependence in demographic rates can strongly affect the dynamics of populations. However, the mechanisms generating density dependence (e.g., predation) are also dynamic processes and may be influenced by local conditions. Understanding the manner in which local habitat features affect the occurrence and/or strength of density dependence will increase our understanding of population dynamics in heterogeneous environments. In this study I conducted two separate field experiments to investigate how local predator density and habitat complexity affect the occurrence and form of density-dependent mortality of juvenile rockfishes (Sebastes spp.). I also used yearly censuses of rockfish populations on nearshore reefs throughout central California to evaluate mortality of juvenile rockfish at large spatial scales. Manipulations of predators (juvenile bocaccio, S. paucispinus) and prey (kelp, gopher, and black-and-yellow [KGB] rockfish, Sebastes spp.) demonstrated that increasing the density of predators altered their functional response and thus altered patterns of density dependence in mortality of their prey. At low densities of predators, the number of prey consumed per predator was a decelerating function, and mortality of prey was inversely density dependent. However, at high densities of predators, the number of prey killed per predator became an accelerating response, and prey mortality was directly density dependent. Results of field experiments and large-scale surveys both indicated that the strength of density-dependent mortality may also be affected by the structural complexity of the habitat. In small-scale field experiments, increased habitat complexity increased the strength of density-dependent mortality. However, at large scales, increasing complexity resulted in a decrease in the strength of density dependence. I suggest that these differences resulted from scale-dependent changes in the predatory response that generated mortality. Whether increased habitat complexity leads to an increase or a decrease in the strength of density-dependent mortality may depend on how specific predatory responses (e.g., functional or aggregative) are altered by habitat complexity. Overall, the findings of this study suggest that rates of demographic density dependence and the resulting dynamics of local populations may largely depend upon attributes of the local habitat.     

Estimating the status of nearshore rockfish (Sebastes spp.) populations with length frequency data.

Ecologists often point to excessive truncation of a population's size-structure as a deleterious effect of exploitation, yet the effect of this truncation on population persistence is seldom quantified. While persistence of marine populations requires maintenance of a sufficient level of lifetime reproduction, fishing reduces lifetime reproduction by increasing the total mortality rate, preventing individuals from growing old, large, and highly fecund. We employ a new method of estimating changes in lifetime egg production (LEP) using two samples of the size structure, one in the past and one current, to assess persistence of five species of nearshore rockfish (Sebastes spp.) in California and Oregon, U.S.A. Using length frequency data from catch in the recreational fishery, we estimate that since 1980, four of the five rockfish species considered have experienced declines in LEP to levels that suggest that persistence is impaired. When changes in LEP were estimated for subsets of the data corresponding to neighboring geographical regions, differences in LEP levels were apparent in the neighboring regions, implying that the effects of fishing mortality are not evenly distributed over space. We conclude by discussing the use of this estimation approach to assess the status of other species in data-poor situations.     

Despotic, high-impact species and the subcontinental scale control of avian assemblage structure

Some species have disproportionate influence on assemblage structure, given their numbers or biomass. Most examples of such "strong interactors" come from small-scale experiments or from observations of the effects of invasive species. There is evidence that entire avian assemblages in open woodlands can be influenced strongly by individual species over very large areas in eastern Australia, with small-bodied species (< 50 g) being adversely affected. We used data from repeated surveys in 371 sites in seven districts across a region from Victoria to Queensland (> 2000 km). A series of linked Bayesian models was used to identify large-bodied (> or = 50 g) bird species that were associated with changes in occurrence and abundance of small-bodied species. One native species, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala; family Meliphagidae), was objectively identified as the sole large-bodied species having similar detrimental effects in all districts, depressing occurrence of 57 of 71 small-bodied species. Adverse effects on abundances of small-bodied species were profound when the Noisy Miner occurred with mean site abundances > or = 1.6 birds/2 ha. The Noisy Miner may be the first species to have been shown to influence whole-of-avifauna assemblage structure through despotic aggressiveness over subcontinental scales. These substantial shifts in occurrence rates and abundances of small-bodied species flow on to alter species abundance distributions of entire assemblages over much of eastern Australia.     

Using Age Structure to Detect Impacts on Threatened Populations: a Case Study with Steller Sea Lions

Abstract:   A delayed response to change is often a characteristic of long-lived species and presents a major challenge to monitoring their status. However, rapid shifts in age structure can occur even while population size remains relatively static. We used time-varying matrix models to study age-structure information as a tool for improving detection of survivorship and fecundity change and status. We applied the methods to Steller sea lions (  Eumetopias jubatus ), a long-lived endangered marine mammal found throughout the North Pacific Rim. Population and newborn counts were supplemented with information on the fraction of the population that was juvenile, obtained by measuring animals in aerial photographs taken during range-wide censuses. By fitting the model to 1976–1998 data, we obtained maximum-likelihood estimates and 95% confidence intervals for juvenile survivorship, adult survivorship, and adult fecundity in the mid-1980s, late 1980s, and 1990s. We used a series of nested models to test whether the data were best fit by a model with one, two, or three temporal changes in demographic rates, and we fit the models to different lengths of data to test the number of years of data needed to detect a demographic change. The declines in the early 1980s were associated with severely low juvenile survivorship, whereas declines in the 1990s were associated with disproportionately low fecundity. We repeated these analyses, fitting only to the count data without the juvenile-fraction information, to determine whether the age-structure information changed the conclusions and/or changed the certainty and speed with which demographic-rate changes could be detected. The juvenile-fraction data substantially improved the degree to which estimates from the model were consistent with field data and significantly improved the speed and certainty with which changes in demographic rates were detected.     

Changes in Species Abundance, Distribution, and Diversity in a Central European Bird Community

We analyzed possible causes of changes in species abundance, range size, and diversity as well as extinctions and colonizations in a central European bird community. Using data from the semiquantitative "Lake Constance" breeding bird atlas, we demonstrated that changes in regional abundances from 1980–1981 to 1990–1992 of 151 coexisting bird species were influenced by breeding habitat and migratory status. Significant declines were found in populations of farmland species and long-distance migrants. Farmland species lost parts of their ranges but hardly changed in local abundance in sites where they still occurred. In contrast, declines in long-distance migrants were caused by significant declines in local abundance with only slight loss of occupied range. Regional extinctions and colonizations were predictable from overall population trends. For example, all species that went extinct were either farmland species or long-distance migrants. Avian community composition was influenced by disproportionate declines of abundant species. This led to declines in the total number of breeding pairs and in community biomass and to increases in community evenness, but to only slight declines in species richness. Future conservation efforts in Europe need to focus more on farmland species and on understanding causes for the declines of long-distance migrants.     

Fish assemblages composition in a natural, then regulated, stream: A quantitative long-term study

This paper tests the hypothesis how effectively fish assemblage composition was shaped by local climate changes and by engineering impact in 1989. This was possible due to the monitoring protocols of the present study, which allowed estimation of the magnitude of anthropogenic changes from changes naturally occurring in nature. Fish were sampled at the end of every growing season (October) for 23 years at five contiguous sites in a stream, before (1979-1988) and after (1989-2001) regulation. In each sample, six successive electrofishing passes were used to calculate the density and mean biomass for assemblage analysis using the Zippin model. During the study, the natural, meandering stream with pools, riffles, and a moderate canopy was modified into a straight stream of uniform width and depth, stripped of all vegetation. The output layer of a self-organizing map (SOM, the artificial neural network algorithm) applied in this study for site similarity analysis was partitioned into six subclusters placed in two main clusters. Subclusters in the upper part of the SOM were occupied chiefly by regulated stream samples and those in the lower part of the SOM by natural stream samples. Subclusters in the middle position, contained both natural (19) and regulated (20) samples in nearly equal proportion. In addition, the SOM contained one subcluster with sites only from the regulated period and another with only natural sites. Differences between subclusters were attributed to differences in climate, with some differences profound. Warming of the local weather, which became most evident in the 1990s, may have resulted in changes in fish assemblages. This is shown in the SOM, in which samples from the 1980s with cold years dominate the bottom of the SOM, whereas those from the 1990s and later are at the top. Subclusters dominated by regulated or natural sites were not always significantly different when the number of species and diversity indices were considered. Clear differences between the regulated and natural samples involved qualitative characteristics and mainly concerned assemblage composition. They were also confirmed by significant IndVal values (indicator species) and neither mixed subcluster contained important species in their assemblages.     

Shifts in a Pacific Ocean Fish Assemblage: the Potential Influence of Exploitation

Abstract:  As in many regions of the world, marine fishes and invertebrates along the Pacific coast of the United States have long been subjected to overexploitation. Despite this history, however, we lack basic information on the current status of many fishes along this coastline. We used data from a quarter century of fishery-independent, coast-wide trawl surveys to study systematically the demersal fish assemblages along the U.S. Pacific coast. We documented fundamental shifts in this fish assemblage. Average fish size, across a diversity of species, has declined 45% in 21 years. There have been major shifts in the constituent species of the assemblage, with some species achieving annual population growth rates of >10% and others declining in excess of 10% per year. Annual rate of change in population size appeared to be a function of life history interacting with fishing pressure. Negative trends in population size were particularly apparent in rockfish ( Sebastes spp.). However, across all taxa examined, trends in population size were associated with size of maturity, maximum size, and growth rate. Trends in population size were associated inversely with harvest levels, but stocks that mature late tended to decline faster than would be predicted by catch rates alone. Our results are disquieting because they raise the possibility that fishing-induced phase shifts in fish communities may affect the recovery of fishes, even after the implementation of severe fishing restrictions.     

Density dependence in marine fish populations revealed at small and large spatial scales

Experimental manipulation of population density has frequently been used to demonstrate demographic density dependence. However, such studies are usually small scale and typically provide evidence of spatial (within-generation) density dependence. It is often unclear whether small-scale, experimental tests of spatial density dependence will accurately describe temporal (between-generation) density dependence required for population regulation. Understanding the mechanisms generating density dependence may provide a link between spatial experiments and temporal regulation of populations. In this study, I manipulated the density of recently settled kelp rockfish (Sebastes atrovirens) in both the presence and absence of predators to test for density-dependent mortality and whether predation was the mechanism responsible. I also examined mortality of rockfish cohorts within kelp beds throughout central California to evaluate temporal (between-generation) density dependence in mortality. Experiments suggested that short-term behavioral responses of predators and/or a shortage of prey refuges caused spatial density dependence. Temporal density dependence in mortality was also detected at larger spatial scales for several species of rockfish. It is likely that short-term responses of predators generated both spatial and temporal density dependence in mortality. Spatial experiments that describe the causal mechanisms generating density dependence may therefore be valuable in describing temporal density dependence and population regulation.     

Evidence for seasonal mate limitation in populations of an intertidal amphipod, Corophium volutator (Pallas)

Potential rates of reproduction (PRR) differ between the sexes of many animal species. Adult sex ratios together with PRR are expected to determine the operational sex ratio (OSR) defined as the ratio of fertilizable females to sexually active males at any given time. OSR is expected to determine the degree to which one sex competes for another—the limiting sex. We explored the potential for mate limitation in an intertidal amphipod, Corophium volutator (Pallas). Males have higher PRR than females, but males may be limiting because of extreme female-biased sex ratios observed in this species. Consistent with this idea, late season females were less likely to be ovigerous and had smaller size-specific clutches, both of which were associated with seasonal declines in availability of males of reproductive size. Seasonal changes in ovigery could not be explained by seasonal changes across sites in other factors (e.g., female body size or phenology of breeding). Smaller females were less likely to become ovigerous later in the season at three of four sites. Seasonal reductions in clutch size also occurred among small females expected to be reproducing for their first time. In complimentary laboratory experiments, reduced likelihood of ovigery and reduced fecundity occurred when the number of receptive females was increased relative to availability of a reproductively active male. Our results suggest male mate limitation can occur seasonally in this species and that male limitation is regionally widespread and may affect recruitment.     

Flows, droughts, and aliens: factors affecting the fish assemblage in a Sierra Nevada, California, stream

The fishes of Martis Creek, in the Sierra Nevada of California (USA), were sampled at four sites annually over 30 years, 1979-2008. This long-term data set was used to examine (1) the persistence and stability of the Martis Creek fish assemblage in the face of environmental stochasticity; (2) whether native and alien fishes responded differently to a natural hydrologic regime (e.g., timing and magnitude of high and low flows); and (3) the importance of various hydrologic and physical habitat variables in explaining the abundances of native and alien fish species through time. Our results showed that fish assemblages were persistent at all sample sites, but individual species exhibited marked interannual variability in density, biomass, and relative abundance. The density and biomass of native fishes generally declined over the period of study, whereas most alien species showed no significant long-term trends. Only alien rainbow trout increased in both density and biomass at all sites over time. Redundancy analysis identified three hydrologic variables (annual 7-day minimum discharge, maximum winter discharge, and number of distinct winter floods) and two habitat variables (percentage of pool habitat and percentage of gravel substrate) that each explained a significant portion of the annual variation in fish assemblage structure. For alien taxa, their proportional contribution to the total fish assemblage was inversely related to mean annual streamflow, one-day maximum discharge in both winter and spring, and the frequency of springtime floods. Results of this study highlight the need for continuous annual monitoring of streams with highly variable flow regimes to evaluate shifts in fish community structure. Apparent successes or failures in stream management may appear differently depending on the time series of available data.     

Value of Small Patches in the Conservation of Plant-Species Diversity in Highly Fragmented Rainforest

Abstract:  We evaluated the importance of small (<5 ha) forest patches for the conservation of regional plant diversity in the tropical rainforest of Los Tuxtlas, Mexico. We analyzed the density of plant species (number of species per 0.1 ha) in 45 forest patches of different sizes (1–700 ha) in 3 landscapes with different deforestation levels (4, 11, and 24% forest cover). Most of the 364 species sampled (360 species, 99%) were native to the region, and only 4 (1%) were human-introduced species. Species density in the smallest patches was high and variable; the highest (84 species) and lowest (23 species) number of species were recorded in patches of up to 1.8 ha. Despite the small size of these patches, they contained diverse communities of native plants, including endangered and economically important species. The relationship between species density and area was significantly different among the landscapes, with a significant positive slope only in the landscape with the highest deforestation level. This indicates that species density in a patch of a given size may vary among landscapes that have different deforestation levels. Therefore, the conservation value of a patch depends on the total forest cover remaining in the landscape. Our findings revealed, however, that a great portion of regional plant diversity was located in very small forest patches (<5 ha), most of the species were restricted to only a few patches (41% of the species sampled were distributed in only 1–2 patches, and almost 70% were distributed in 5 patches) and each landscape conserved a unique plant assemblage. The conservation and restoration of small patches is therefore necessary to effectively preserve the plant diversity of this strongly deforested and unique Neotropical region.     

Extremes, plasticity, and invariance in vertebrate life history traits: insights from coral reef fishes

Life history theory predicts a range of directional generic responses in life history traits with increasing organism size. Among these are the relationships between size and longevity, mortality, growth rate, timing of maturity, and lifetime reproductive output. Spanning three orders of magnitude in size, coral reef fishes provide an ecologically diverse and species-rich vertebrate assemblage in which to test these generic responses. Here we examined these relationships by quantifying the life cycles of three miniature species of coral reef fish from the genus Eviota (Gobiidae) and compared their life history characteristics with other reef fish species. We found that all three species of Eviota have life spans of < 100 days, suffer high daily mortality rates of 7-8%, exhibit rapid linear growth, and matured at an earlier than expected size. Although lifetime reproductive output was low, consistent with their small body sizes, short generation times of 47-74 days help overcome low individual fecundity and appear to be a critical feature in maintaining Eviota populations. Comparisons with other coral reef fish species showed that Eviota species live on the evolutionary margins of life history possibilities for vertebrate animals. This addition of demographic information on these smallest size classes of coral reef fishes greatly extends our knowledge to encompass the full size spectrum and highlights the potential for coral reef fishes to contribute to vertebrate life history studies.     

Modeling the impacts of hunting on the population dynamics of red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus)

Overexploitation of wildlife populations occurs across the humid tropics and is a significant threat to the long-term survival of large-bodied primates. To investigate the impacts of hunting on primates and ways to mitigate them, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model for a landscape that included hunted and un-hunted areas. We used the large-bodied neotropical red howler monkey (Alouatta seniculus) as our case study species because its life history characteristics make it vulnerable to hunting. We modeled the influence of different rates of harvest and proportions of landscape dedicated to un-hunted reserves on population persistence, population size, social dynamics, and hunting yields of red howler monkeys. In most scenarios, the un-hunted populations maintained a constant density regardless of hunting pressure elsewhere, and allowed the overall population to persist. Therefore, the overall population was quite resilient to extinction; only in scenarios without any un-hunted areas did the population go extinct. However, the total and hunted populations did experience large declines over 100 years under moderate and high hunting pressure. In addition, when reserve area decreased, population losses and losses per unit area increased disproportionately. Furthermore, hunting disrupted the social structure of troops. The number of male turnovers and infanticides increased in hunted populations, while birth rates decreased and exacerbated population losses due to hunting. Finally, our results indicated that when more than 55% of the landscape was harvested at high (30%) rates, hunting yields, as measured by kilograms of biomass, were less than those obtained from moderate harvest rates. Additionally, hunting yields, expressed as the number of individuals hunted/year/km², increased in proximity to un-hunted areas, and suggested that dispersal from un-hunted areas may have contributed to hunting sustainability. These results indicate that un-hunted areas serve to enhance hunting yields, population size, and population persistence in hunted landscapes. Therefore, spatial regulation of hunting via a reserve system may be an effective management strategy for sustainable hunting, and we recommend it because it may also be more feasible to implement than harvest quotas or restrictions on season length.     

Documenting Loss of Large Trophy Fish from the Florida Keys with Historical Photographs

Abstract:  A loss of large vertebrates has occurred in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, but data to measure long-term population changes are sparse. Historical photographs provide visual and quantitative evidence of changes in mean individual size and species composition for groups of marine fish that have been targeted by sport fishing. I measured such trends for 13 groups of recreationally caught "trophy" reef fish with photographs taken in Key West, Florida, from 1956 to 2007. The mean fish size declined from an estimated 19.9 kg (SE 1.5) to 2.3 kg (SE 0.3), and there was a major shift in species composition. Landings from 1956 to 1960 were dominated by large groupers ( Epinephelus spp.), and other large predatory fish were commonly caught, including sharks with an average length of just <2 m. In contrast, landings in 2007 were composed of small snappers ( Lutjanus spp. and Ocyurus chrysurus ) with an average length of 34.4 cm (SE 0.62), and the average length of sharks declined by more than 50% over 50 years. Major declines in the size of fish caught were not reflected in the price of fishing trips, so customers paid the same amount for a less-valuable product. Historical photographs provide a window into a more pristine coral reef ecosystem that existed a half a century ago and lend support to current observations that unfished reef communities are able to support large numbers of large-bodied fish.     

Food resource use in a tropical eastern Pacific tidepool fish assemblage

An understanding of the trophic organization patterns of tropical littoral fish assemblages can contribute to the knowledge of key ecosystem processes while simultaneously assisting to validate large-scale biogeographic patterns (i.e. latitudinal patterns in fish herbivory). In the present study, the diets of eight fish species inhabiting the tide pools of a rocky shore on the western coast of Colombia (tropical eastern Pacific) are documented. A total of 17 prey items were identified, with a major representation (average percent by weight) of crabs and macroalgae items in the guts of all species. Small crustacean prey items (crabs, shrimps, copepods and amphipods) dominated the diets of most species, but consumption of macroalgae and diatoms by a significant number of species was also observed. We identified four significant trophic guilds within the assemblage using multivariate techniques (cluster analysis and nMDS): an omnivorous guild, consisting of Malacoctenus zonifer and the smallest size class of Bathygobius ramosus; a small-prey carnivorous guild, consisting of the intermediate size classes of B. ramosus and the smallest size class of Gobiesox adustus; a large-prey carnivorous guild, consisting of both largest size classes of B. ramosus and G. adustus; and an herbivorous guild consisting of Abudefduf concolor, A. troschelii and Chaenomugil proboscideus. The diet of two species slightly overlapped those of the rest of the assemblage and did not conform to any guild (Echidna nocturna and Halichoeres aestuaricola). It is hypothesised that guild formation may be a consequence of aggregation of species at abundant resources in the intertidal zone rather than a direct consequence of inter-specific competition. Ontogenetic changes in diets were observed in two resident species of the assemblage (B. ramosus and G. adustus). The latitudinal trend for herbivory inside this tropical assemblage is discussed in comparison with similar temperate studies in the eastern Pacific.     

Habitat saturation drives thresholds in stream subsidies

Understanding how abundance regulates the effects of organisms on their ecosystems remains a critical goal of ecology, especially for understanding inter-ecosystem transfers of energy and nutrients. Here we examined how territoriality and nest-digging by anadromous salmon mediate trophic subsidies to stream fishes. Salmon eggs become available for consumption primarily by the digging of salmon that superimpose their nests on previous nests. An individual-based model of spawning salmon predicted that territoriality and habitat saturation produce a nonlinear effect of salmon density on numbers of available eggs to resident predators. Field studies in Alaskan streams found that higher densities of salmon produce disproportionately more eggs in stream drift and in diets of resident fishes (Arctic grayling and rainbow trout). Bioenergetics model simulations indicated that these subsidies produce substantially enhanced growth rates of trout. These results demonstrate that small changes in salmon abundance can drive large changes in subsidies to stream food webs. Thus, the ecological consequences of population declines of keystone species, such as salmon, will be exacerbated when behavior generates nonlinear impacts.     

Mate choice,fecundity and sexual dimorphism in two pipefish species (Syngnathidae)

Summary In order to understand the causes of sexual dimorphism, mate choice and size-related fecundity were studied in two pipefish species, Syngnathus typhle and Nerophis ophidion. Sexual dimorphism is more pronounced in N. ophidion; females are larger, have sexual colourings, and are more active during courtship. In S. typhle the sexes are alike in all these respects. Males brood their offspring in both species. In N. ophidion fecundity was positively correlated with both body size and the amount of sexual colouring in females. In males no correlation between body size and fecundity, or between body size and embryo size existed. Predictably, in mate choice experiments with equal-sized females, males chose females with more extensive sexual colourings. We explain sexual dimorphism in this species as a consequence of both natural selection (fecundity increases with size in females but not in males) and sexual selection (males prefer larger females). We argue that sexual size dimorphism did not evolve by selection minimizing overlap in food niches between the sexes, because food production is high in the Zostera beds where the fishes live, and no size dimorphism was found in the sympatrically occurring S. typhle. Furthermore, in N. ophidion dimorphism is not greater in a particular mouth character than in overall body size. In S. typhle egg size and the average number of eggs transferred per spawning were positively correlated with female body size. Apparently more energy per offspring was provided by larger males than by smaller males, and larger males also carried more offspring. As predicted, large mates were preferred by both sexes in mate choice experiments. This is explicable in terms of both natural selection (fecundity increases with size in both sexes) and sexual selection (both sexes prefer large mates). As a consequence of selection acting in the same direction in both sexes, sexual dimorphism is absent in S. typhle.     

Simulated Responses of a Forest-Interior Bird Population to Forest Management Options in Central Hardwood Forests of the United States

I used estimates of carrying capacity, survival, fecundity, and edge effects to simulate the responses of a forest-interior bird population to selection cutting clearcutting, and no timber harvest. I also modeled population sensitivity to changes in fecundity, survival, K , and edge relationships. Because model parameters are based on scant data, results should he regarded as hypotheses to be further investigated or measures of the relative impact or sensitivity (given model assumptions). Simulated population size was greater with no timber harvest than with clearcutting and greater with clearcutting than with group selection when edge effects were included in the model. Without edge effects, population levels were only slightly lower under group selection than under no timber harvest, and greater than clearcutting. Edge effects had only a small impact on population levels under clearcutting. Clearcut size did not have much effect on population levels, but longer and shorter rotation ages resulted in higher and lower population levels, respectively. The model was very sensitive to declines in mean fecundity and survival, suggesting that factors affecting mean demographic rates could be more important than local edge effects. Some methods of timber harvest may be compatible with the conservation of forest-interior birds, but better demographic data and information on habitat suitability of selectively cut forests and young even-aged stands is needed to adequately evaluate management options.     

Pollinator effectiveness varies with experimental shifts in flowering time

The earlier flowering times exhibited by many plant species are a conspicuous sign of climate change. Altered phenologies have caused concern that species could suffer population declines if they flower at times when effective pollinators are unavailable. For two perennial wildflowers, Tradescantia ohiensis and Asclepias incarnata, we used an experimental approach to explore how changing phenology affects the taxonomic composition of the pollinator assemblage and the effectiveness of individual pollinator taxa. After finding in the previous year that fruit set varied with flowering time, we manipulated flowering onset in greenhouses, placed plants in the field over the span of five weeks, and measured pollinator effectiveness as the number of seeds produced after a single visit to a flower. The average effectiveness of pollinators and the expected rates of pollination success were lower for plants of both species flowering earlier than for plants flowering at historical times, suggesting there could be reproductive costs to earlier flowering. Whereas for A. incarnata, differences in average seed set among weeks were due primarily to changes in the composition of the pollinator assemblage, the differences for T. ohiensis were driven by the combined effects of compositional changes and increases over time in the effectiveness of some pollinator taxa. Both species face the possibility of temporal mismatch between the availability of the most effective pollinators and the onset of flowering, and changes in the effectiveness of individual pollinator taxa through time may add an unexpected element to the reproductive consequences of such mismatches.