A distance-based uncertainty analysis approach to multi-criteria decision analysis for water resource decision making

The choice among alternative water supply sources is generally based on the fundamental objective of maximising the ratio of benefits to costs. There is, however, a need to consider sustainability, the environment and social implications in regional water resources planning, in addition to economics. In order to achieve this, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques can be used. Various sources of uncertainty exist in the application of MCDA methods, including the selection of the MCDA method, elicitation of criteria weights and assignment of criteria performance values. The focus of this paper is on the uncertainty in the criteria weights. Sensitivity analysis can be used to analyse the effects of uncertainties associated with the criteria weights. Two existing sensitivity methods are described in this paper and a new distance-based approach is proposed which overcomes limitations of these methods. The benefits of the proposed approach are the concurrent alteration of the criteria weights, the applicability of the method to a range of MCDA techniques and the identification of the most critical criteria weights. The existing and proposed methods are applied to three case studies and the results indicate that simultaneous consideration of the uncertainty in the criteria weights should be an integral part of the decision making process.     

Establishing politically feasible water markets: a multi-criteria approach

A multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) model to simulate the establishment of water markets is developed. The environment is an irrigated area governed by a non-profit agency, which is responsible for water production, allocation, and pricing. There is a traditional situation of historical rights, average-cost pricing for water allocation, large quantities of water used, and inefficiency. A market-oriented policy could be implemented by accounting for ecological and political objectives such as saving groundwater and safeguarding historical rights while promoting economic efficiency. In this paper, a problem is solved by compromise programming, a multi-criteria technique based on the principles of Simonian logic. The model is theoretically developed and applied to the Lorca region in Spain near the Mediterranean Sea.     

A landscape ecological approach to address scaling problems in conservation management and monitoring

Management of many African game reserves is today often still an art based on experience and intuition, rather than a science. Decision-making is based on an informal integration of accumulated individual knowledge and keen field observations. Data are generally poorly captured and curated. Until fairly recently, denominators of biological parameters (such as the unit of land or unit of plant production used as measurement) have generally been treated as being homogenous. The patchiness of landscapes and the issue of ecological scaling were ignored, often because of a lack of appropriate technical tools. The ecological data available on the 49,000-ha Songimvelo Game Reserve (SGR) result from a number of discrete survey and monitoring projects undertaken by different researchers, with different objectives, at different spatial and temporal scales. A landscape ecological approach towards research and monitoring is appropriate for an area of the size and diversity of the SGR. A combination of a database approach and spatial representation was used to consolidate and integrate data across temporal and spatial scales. Herbivore spatial and temporal distribution patterns were explored across three spatial scales. An understanding was achieved of the importance of landscape patchiness in controlling resource availability for herbivores. This insight is important in guiding management and monitoring of the SGR by placing perceived patch overutilization in its proper landscape context. The landscape ecological approach bridges the traditional scale-independent view to a more contemporary scale-related understanding of ecosystem diversity and functioning.     

Monitoring and targeting the sanitation poor: A multidimensional approach

Water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) are at the core of sustainable development. As we embark on a new round of global goals, namely the Sustainable Development Goals, a top priority is to address a coherent framework for monitoring these services. In the coming years, the sector will witness the development of a variety of multidimensional monitoring measures, albeit from different perspectives. This paper reviews the relevant literature and discusses the adequacy and applicability of one approach that is increasingly adopted for multidimensional poverty measurement at the household level, the Alkire‐Foster methodology. Drawing on this method, we identify and combine a set of direct household‐related water and sanitation deprivations that batter a person at the same time. This new multidimensional measure is useful for gaining a better understanding of the context in which WaSH services are delivered. It captures both the incidence and intensity of WaSH poverty, and provides a new tool to support monitoring and reporting. For illustrative purposes, one small town in Mozambique is selected as the initial case study.     

A multi-criteria approach for the dumping of dredged material in the Thermaikos Gulf,Northern Greece

A multi-criteria approach was applied for the disposal into the sea of ～1 100 000 m³ of sediment, dredged from a coastal area in the northeastern part of the Thermaikos Gulf. This sediment (classified as muddy) is distributed vertically into two distinct Layers (A and B) with the thickness of the surficial sedimentary unit ranging from 7 to 54 cm. Its geochemistry reveals increased Cr and Ni concentrations, which may be attributed to natural enrichment through the erosion of the adjacent igneous and metamorphic rocks. In addition, a low to moderate contamination from urban-originated heavy metals, like Cu, Pb and Zn as well as from aliphatic and polycyclic hydrocarbons was identified for the upper Layer A. However, the limited proportion (5.5%) of the polluted Layer A in the total volume of the dredged material could not affect the good quality (assessed by the Sediment Quality Guidelines) of the bulk sediment. The identification of the optimum marine dumping site was based on (a) the physicochemical similarity (detected by the application of a cluster analysis) of the dredged material with the surficial deposits of potential dumping sites in the Outer Thermaikos Gulf, and (b) the consideration, based on previous studies, of various criteria related to the disposal area such as deep-water circulation, influence on living resources, impact on economical (aquaculture, fishing, navigation), recreational (fishing) and military activities.     

The town scheme approach to urban conservation in England and Scotland

The Town Scheme approach to urban conservation is being used increasingly as a major method of repairing historic buildings in conservation areas. A Town Scheme involves a long‐term financial and administrative partnership between the various levels of government. An annual budget made up of equal contributions from central government and the participating local authority is used to finance a multi‐year programme of repairs. Owners can apply for grants which are usually for 40 per cent of approved costs, and repair work must relate to the original structure and architectural details of an approved list of historic buildings. Town Schemes by themselves cannot totally transform the environmental quality of conservation areas, and the most successful schemes are part of wide‐ranging renewal and enhancement projects.     

Undue concentration of research and education: multi-criteria decision approach to assess jurisdiction eligibility for NSF funding

Research and education tend to concentrate in specific geographical areas, while many jurisdictions receive limited federal research funding. This has resulted in reduced opportunity for students as well as limited ability of science to influence solving problems at the jurisdiction level. The National Science Foundation’s Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) was intended to address the “undue concentration of research and education” by providing direct funding to improve research infrastructure, hire researchers, develop outreach, and to enhance local research capacity. Despite many successful outcomes attributed to EPSCoR, the aim and the execution of the program have generated controversy. Decision analytic tools can provide a systematic approach to EPSCoR prioritization that improves transparency and addresses the program’s intent. The wording of NSF’s mission and EPSCoR legislation suggest the intent of maximizing NSF’s benefit to the nation by directly supporting scientific research product across all jurisdictions and by supporting development of competitive scientific capabilities within particular jurisdictions. These components may be quantified via data-driven metrics producing indicators of ultimate benefit. Using illustrative scenarios within a multi-criteria decision model, we explore how such decision models may generate insights and how their guidance compares with current eligibility determinations.     

A process integration approach to industrial water conservation: a case study for a Chinese steel plant

A systematic approach to optimizing water network has traditionally been utilized to exam and plan water conservation in industrial processes. In the present case study, water-pinch technology was used to analyze and optimize the water network of a steel plant near China's Zhangjiakou city. A system design was developed and a limiting constraint (Cl(-) concentration) was identified based on investigations of water quality then the minimum freshwater and wastewater targets were determined without considering water losses. The analysis was then extended by calculating the additional input of freshwater required to balance the actual water losses. A nearest-neighbor algorithm (NNA) was used to distribute the freshwater and recycled water among each of the plant's operations. The results showed that with some reconstruction of the water network, the flow rates of freshwater and wastewater could be decreased by 57.5% and 81.9%, respectively.     

A multi-criteria framework to assess the sustainability of renewable energy development in the Alps

A multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was implemented to assess the best solutions for enhancing the production of renewable energy in the Alps. A set of criteria were selected based on the impacts of four renewable energy sources (forest biomass, hydropower, ground solar photovoltaic and wind power) on the three spheres of sustainability (environmental, social and economic). Three different scenarios are presented, each with a different set of weights for the criteria: the first scenario considers equally all three aspects of sustainability; the second scenario foresees an environmentally-oriented perspective, while the third scenario is more focused on the socio-economic aspects related to the development of renewable energy. Results show that forest biomass and hydropower seem to be the most viable solutions for enhancing the share of renewable energy in the Alps. Ground solar photovoltaic and wind power, on the other hand, seem to be less attractive alternatives due to their high impacts on land use.     

A participatory approach to ecosystem conservation: fuzzy cognitive maps and stakeholder group analysis in Uluabat Lake,Turkey

Fuzzy cognitive mapping was used to develop a participatory ecosystem management plan for Uluabat Lake, Turkey. Interviews were conducted with stakeholders belonging to six different groups. Lake pollution was the most central and most mentioned variable for stakeholders. Stakeholder groups agree that lake pollution is negatively affecting ecosystem health and thereby local economies. Thus, reducing lake pollution was chosen as the overall goal for the management plan. Possible ways to reduce lake pollution and increase ecosystem health were seen differently by the different groups. Hunters, factory managers, NGO personnel, and local people thought industry was the main cause of lake pollution, while officials from the government and local municipalities thought roads and urban development contributed the most to lake pollution. Generally the stakeholder groups did not perceive their own actions as affecting the lake as strongly as other groups thought. For example, factory managers viewed factory pollution as negatively affecting the lake but less strongly than the other groups did. According to policy option simulations, reducing lake pollution had positive effects on all variables, especially fish, birds, animal husbandry, irrigation, agriculture, and the ecological balance of the lake. Results of this analysis were used to facilitate meetings among stakeholder groups and to develop a participatory ecosystem management plan. The analysis was useful for pointing out the similarities as well as the differences among the groups. It also helped the facilitators understand the focus of each stakeholder group and enabled them to suggest activities in which each group would want to participate.     

Transboundary conservation: An ecoregional approach to protect neotropical migratory birds in South America

Future conservation efforts will need to transcend geopolitical boundaries in efforts to protect entire landscapes and ecosystems. Neotropical migratory birds are as a group a useful conservation tool for linking diverse landscapes and people due to their dependence on multiple habitats, sensitivity to habitat changes, and universal public appeal. The conservation of neotropical migrants can therefore function as a powerful hemispheric umbrella for ecosystem protection. Efforts to protect neotropical migratory birds on their nonbreeding grounds have traditionally been focused on Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. To assess the importance of South America to neotropical migrants, an ecoregional classification system was used to determine species distributions in the Andean/Southern Cone Region (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, and Venezuela). The occurrence of migrants in protected areas that are part of The Nature Conservancy's Parks in Peril program was also assessed. Of the 406 neotropical migrant species, nearly one third (132) occur as regular nonbreeding residents in the region and for almost half of these species (53), South America is their main nonbreeding ground. All Parks in Peril sites were found to harbor neotropical migrants. Forty-eight species (36%) have declining longterm North American Breeding Bird Survey population trends and/or high Partners in Flight concern scores and thus are of significant conservation concern. Most importantly, 29 species (22%) of conservation concern use South America as their primary nonbreeding ground, indicating a need for focused conservation action. The nature of the ecoregional approach used in this endeavor makes future prioritization of ecoregions and conservation strategies for neotropical migrants across national boundaries possible. The ability to link diverse landscapes using a common element such as migratory birds allows for unique transboundary partnerships and opportunities for habitat conservation, which support the goal of the Conservancy's new Migratory Bird Initiative.     

A multi-criteria assessment of fishing gear impacts in demersal fisheries

Fishing gears have multiple impacts on the marine environment, and policies to reduce these impacts through modifying fishing gears are becoming common place. Different modifications result in different changes in the set of environmental impacts, and imply different sets of costs and benefits for different stakeholder groups. In this study, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to quantify the relative importance of the environmental impacts of fishing to different stakeholder groups. Forty eight individuals representing six different stakeholder groups (ecologists, biologists, economists, gear technologists, fishers and fisheries managers) were surveyed. As expected, fishers and gear technologists placed substantially greater importance on reducing discarding of commercial fish species than on habitat damage. Priorities of other stakeholder groups varied, but all placed greater priority on habitats than the commercial sector. The results suggest that management aimed at reducing environmental impacts of fishing broader than just discarding is appropriate, but such moves are likely to be opposed by the fishing industry. The derived weights also have a direct application to fisheries management, as they allow otherwise non-commensurate impacts to be aggregated into an overall impact to compare environmental benefits from alternative modifications of fishing gear.     

A multi-criteria evaluation of organic amendments used to transform an unproductive shrubland into a Mediterranean dehesa

Environmental and health problems associated with the use of digested sewage sludge hinder its application and encourage the introduction of additional treatments such as composting and thermal drying. The aim of this paper is to assess the possibility of using three different types of sewage sludge (digested, composted and thermally dried) to improve soil fertility and enhance the transformation of an unproductive shrub land into a Mediterranean dehesa for grazing purposes and also to reduce wildfire risk. In total, 10t ha(-1) of dry matter of three types of sewage sludge were spread on the soil surface of 4x5m field plots, and then seeded with a mixture of grasses. Effects on soil fertility and plant growth were monitored over 2 years. The results show that all three types of sludge application had a significant effect on vegetation cover, herbaceous biomass (2767.7+/-716.1 and 1735.0+/-299.7kgha(-1) for digested sludge amended and control plots, respectively) and tree growth (0.41+/-0.108cmyear(-1) on amended trees, 14.6% more than control trees). This study proposes the use of multi-criteria analysis to identify the most suitable fertilization alternatives and to assist in the decision-making process of sludge recycling. Because of the high degree of uncertainty and conflicting objectives associated with these decisions, multi-criteria evaluation tools make a valuable contribution to decision-making processes concerning sewage sludge applications. According to multi-criteria results, the composted sludge alternative is the most suitable. This is because all the objectives are achieved: an improvement in the properties and functions of the soil with a positive vegetation response as well as minimal economic cost and risk of toxicity.     

An approach based on spatial multicriteria analysis to map the nature conservation value of agricultural land

Knowledge of the nature conservation value of agricultural land provides a useful input to land-use planning. However, the scarcity of suitable data causes this component to rarely play a role. The paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data to assess the nature conservation value of agricultural landscapes, and to generate cartographic results to be used as decision variables in planning. The approach relies on landscape ecological indicators and on the application of multicriteria analysis in a Geographical Information System (GIS) context. Four criteria were selected: the agricultural landscape type, the cover of vegetation remnants and marginal features, the length of forest-agriculture ecotones, and the proximity to nature reserves. These criteria were assessed directly or by means of specific indicators, generating maps that were subsequently aggregated through spatial multicriteria analysis. The approach was tested in an alpine area located in Trentino (northern Italy).     

Measuring sustainable development using a multi-criteria model: A case study

This paper shows how Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can help in a complex process such as the assessment of the level of sustainability of a certain area. The paper presents the results of a study in which a model for measuring sustainability was implemented to better aid public policy decisions regarding sustainability. In order to assess sustainability in specific areas, a methodological approach based on multi-criteria analysis has been developed. The aim is to rank areas in order to understand the specific technical and/or financial support that they need to develop sustainable growth.The case study presented is an assessment of the level of sustainability in different areas of an Italian Region using the MCDA approach. Our results show that MCDA is a proper approach for sustainability assessment. The results are easy to understand and the evaluation path is clear and transparent. This is what decision makers need for having support to their decisions. The multi-criteria model for evaluation has been developed respecting the sustainable development economic theory, so that final results can have a clear meaning in terms of sustainability.     

A modelling approach to scrap recycling

The use of a computer-based modelling method for describing resource flow systems is discussed. The approach is applied to the problem of scrap rubber utilization and a number of policies for dealing with the disposal of used car types are examined in detail. It is argued that only through the use of such models can resources policies be adequately tested in a total systems manner.     

A quality approach to environmental communication

Too often in the past, public relations professionals were consulted only when there was a problem—or a crisis—that needed explaining. The author provides a model for a process-oriented approach to environmental communication that focuses on building and sustaining positive public relationships over time. The key is dialogue with critical publics as well as links with other important actors in the environmental drama that can help position you as part of the solution, not the problem.     

A value-based approach to infrastructure resilience

This paper includes the findings of MMI Thornton Tomasetti’s investigation into the measurement of resilience within infrastructure using systems thinking and focussed on value delivery. This paper provides a review of current practise across critical infrastructure sectors, based on a series of interviews undertaken with stakeholders from various UK infrastructure organisations. Gaps and opportunities were identified and an outline for a value-based approach to diagnosing, measuring and building resilience suggested. The performance of critical infrastructure sectors was also comparatively assessed using the suggested approach value metrics.     

Tasmanian landowner preferences for conservation incentive programs: a latent class approach

An empirical model of landowners' conservation incentive program choice is developed in which information about landowners' socio-economic and property characteristics and their attitudes, is combined with incentive program attributes. In a Choice survey landowners were presented with the choice of two incentive programs modelled as 'bundles of attributes' mimicking a voluntary choice scenario. Landowner behaviour and decision and the type of conditions and regulations they preferred were analyzed. Based on choice survey data, landowner heterogeneity was accounted for using a latent class approach to estimate the preference parameters. Three latent classes of landowners with different attitudes to the role and outcome of establishing conservation reserves on private land were identified: multi-objective owners; environment owners; and production owners. Only a small proportion of landowners, mostly environment owners, would voluntarily join a program. Although compensation funding contributed to voluntary program choice for multi-objective owners and environment owners, welfare losses were around 4000 AUD per hectare, which is less than the average agricultural land value in Tasmania. Landowners for whom compensation funding contributed to voluntary program choice were also most likely to set aside land for conservation without payment. This raises the possibility that the government's compensation expenditure could potentially be either reduced or re-allocated to landowners who will not voluntarily take conservation action. Increasing participation in conservation incentive programs and minimizing the welfare losses associated with meeting conservation targets may be best achieved by offering programs that allow flexibility in terms of legal arrangements and other program attributes.     

Resource conservation in the pulp and paper industries—rational-use-of-energy approach

Sharp rises in energy prices have generated an interest in the pulp and paper industries in cogeneration and heat pump applications. However, the institutional and industry-specific barriers to their implementation, despite economic viability, indicate the inadequacies of the energy conservation and energy saving approaches to minimise energy costs. A systems approach, referred to as rational-use-of-energy, is proposed to overcome some of the barriers and to highlight the conservation potential of other resources, such as chemicals and water at appreciably low effluent loads.