A coffee agroecosystem model: I. Growth and development of the coffee plant

This paper is the first of three on the coffee production system consisting of (1) the coffee plant, (2) coffee berry borer (CBB) and (3) the role of CBB parasitoids. A previous simulation model of the coffee plant was developed using data from Brazil where coffee phenology is characterized by distinct seasonal flowering (Gutierrez et al., 1998). In contrast, flowering in Colombia is continuous with low seasonality. To capture the differences in coffee phenology and growth in the two climatic regions, the Gutierrez et al. (1998) model was modified using new data from Colombia.The modifications to the model include:

(1)

The effect of solar radiation on floral buds initiation;

(2)

An age structure population model to track the daily input and development of the floral buds;

(3)

The effect of leaf water potential on breaking dormancy in flower buds, and hence on the timing and intensity of flowering;

(4)

The incorporation of both the vegetative and the reproductive demands to predict the photosynthetic rate.

(5)

The effect of low temperature on photosynthesis and defoliation.

Other aspects of the model were re-interpreted and refinements made to generalize its structure for use across coffee varieties and geographic areas. The model, without modification, realistically simulates field data from Brazil and two Colombian locations having different varieties, patterns of rainfall and hence flowering phenology.The model will be used as the base trophic level for incorporating CBB and high tropic levels effects, and for the analysis of management options in the coffee production system.     

Assessment of the state of agroecosystem sustainability using landscape indicators: a comparative study of three rural areas in Greece

The research was based on a comparative study of three representative rural areas (Dovras, Larissa, and Messapia) in Greece. Remote sensing data were collected (maps, aerial photographs) for the landscape analysis and elaborated using GIS linked with economic and social parameters regarding land use. By using a selected core set of landscape indicators, this research aims at providing a useful tool for assessing agroecosystem management at territorial level and hopefully assist decision-making for the promotion of sustainability. The selected tool showed that the study area of Messapia presented the highest level of environmental sustainability, while the area of Dovras showed the best combination of agricultural productivity and landscape management. Results showed that the ecoregions of Dovras, Larissa, and Messapia presented a landscape composed of important ecological function areas in the percentages of 40%, 15%, and 70%, respectively, and of cultivated areas in the percentages of 55%, 71.19%, and 19.75%, respectively.     

Ecological differences and coexistence in a guild of microparasites: Bartonella in wild rodents

The study of ecological differences among coexisting microparasites has been largely neglected, but it addresses important and unusual issues because there is no clear distinction in such cases between conventional (resource) and apparent competition. Here patterns in the population dynamics are examined for four species of Bartonella (bacterial parasites) coexisting in two wild rodent hosts, bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) and wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus). Using generalized linear modeling and mixed effects models, we examine, for these four species, seasonal patterns and dependencies on host density (both direct and delayed) and, having accounted for these, any differences in prevalence between the two hosts. Whereas previous studies had failed to uncover species differences, here all four were different. Two, B. doshiae and B. taylorii, were more prevalent in wood mice, and one, B. birtlesii, was more prevalent in bank voles. B. birtlesii, B. grahamii, and B. taylorii peaked in prevalence in the fall, whereas B. doshiae peaked in spring. For B. birtlesii in bank voles, density dependence was direct, but for B. taylorii in wood mice density dependence was delayed. B. birtlesii prevalence in wood mice was related to bank vole density. The implications of these differences for species coexistence are discussed.     

Temporal patterns of populations in a warming world: a modelling framework

In this paper, we present an approach for describing the environmentally induced temporal pattern of structured populations by partial integro-differential equations. Populations are structured according to size or stage. Growth, energy allocation and stage transitions are affected by environmental conditions of which temperature, photoperiod, water depth and food supply were taken into account. The resulting modelling framework was applied to describe, analyse and predict alterations in populations with continuous development, populations with distinct state structures and interacting populations. Our exemplary applications consider populations of freshwater Amphipoda, Isopoda and Odonata. The model was capable of simulating life cycle alterations in dependence on temperature in interaction with other environmental factors: (1) population dynamics, (2) seasonal regulation, (3) water depth-dependent dispersal, (4) intraguild predation and (5) consumer-resource dynamics.     

Grassland songbirds in a dynamic management landscape: behavioral responses and management strategies.

In recent decades, earlier and more frequent harvests of agricultural grasslands have been implicated as a major cause of population declines in grassland songbirds. From 2002 to 2005, in the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York, USA, we studied the reproductive success of Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) and Bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) on four grassland treatments: (1) early-hayed fields cut before 11 June and again in early- to mid-July; (2) middle-hayed fields cut once between 21 June and 10 July; (3) late-hayed fields cut after 1 August; and (4) rotationally grazed pastures. Both the number of fledglings per female per year and nest success (logistic-exposure method) varied among treatments and between species. Although birds initiated nests earlier on early-hayed fields compared to others, haying caused 99% of active Savannah Sparrow and 100% of active Bobolink nests to fail. Both the initial cutting date and time between cuttings influenced renesting behavior. After haying, Savannah Sparrows generally remained on early-hayed fields and immediately renested (clutch completion 15.6 +/- 1.28 days post-haying; all values are reported as mean +/- SE), while Bobolinks abandoned the fields for at least two weeks (mean clutch completion 33 +/- 0.82 days post-haying). While female Savannah Sparrows fledged more offspring per year (1.28 +/- 0.16) than female Bobolinks (0.05 +/- 0.05), reproductive success on early-hayed fields was low. The number of fledglings per female per year was greater on middle-hayed fields (Savannah Sparrows, 3.47 +/- 0.42; Bobolinks, 2.22 +/- 0.26), and late-hayed fields (Savannah Sparrows, 3.29 +/- 0.30; Bobolinks, 2.79 +/- 0.18). Reproductive success was moderate on rotationally grazed pastures, where female Savannah Sparrows and female Bobolinks produced 2.32 +/- 0.25 and 1.79 +/- 0.33 fledgling per year, respectively. We simultaneously conducted cutting surveys throughout the Champlain Valley and found that 3-8% of hayfield habitat was cut by 1-4 June, 25-40% by 12-16 June, and 32-60% by 28 June-2 July. Thus, the majority of grassland habitat was cut during the breeding season; however, late-hayed fields served as high-quality reserves for late-nesting female Bobolinks that were displaced from previously hayed fields. For fields first cut in May, a 65-day interval between cuts could provide enough time for both species to successfully fledge young.     

Risk taking during parental care: a test of three hypotheses applied to the pied flycatcher

According to life-history theory, there will often be a conflict between investment in current versus future reproduction. If a predator appears during breeding, parents must make a compromise between ensuring the growth and survival of offspring (nest defence, feeding and brooding of young), and reducing the risk of predation to ensure their own survival. We model three hypotheses for the outcome of this conflict which are particularly relevant for altricial birds. They are not mutually exclusive, but focus on different costs and benefits. (1) Parental investment is determined by the parents’ own risk of predation. This hypothesis predicts that a lone parent should take smaller risks than a parent that has a mate. (2) Parental investment is related to the reproductive value of the offspring: Parents are predicted to take greater risks for larger broods, larger-sized or older offspring. (3) Finally, we present the new hypothesis that parental investment is related to the harm that offspring would suffer during a period of no parental care (incubation, brooding, feeding). This hypothesis predicts that parents should take greater risks for younger offspring, or for offspring in poorer condition, because the marginal benefit of parental care is largest in such cases. Hence, one may also expect that lone parents should take greater risks than two parents because their offspring are more in need of care. We tested these hypotheses on the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) by presenting a stuffed predator of the parents (a sparrowhawk, Accipiter nisus) close to the nest when parents were feeding the young. Risk taking was measured as the time that elapsed until the first visit to the nest. Most support was found for the ‘‘harm to offspring’’ hypothesis. Previous studies have usually measured the intensity of nest defence against typical nest predators, and have found evidence for the ‘‘reproductive value of offspring’’ hypothesis. However, our model predicts that the importance of the reproductive value of the offspring should decrease relative to the harm that offspring would suffer if they were not cared for when the predator type changes from a nest predator to a predator of adults, and when conditions for breeding turn from good to bad. Received: 13 April 1995/Accepted after revision: 11 March 1996     

Laboratory-made artificial marine snow: a biological model of the real thing

Cylindrical tanks of unfiltered seawater were rotated on a roller table until the particles in the seawater formed aggregates resembling marine snow. During the summer of 1987 comparisons were made between marine snow in field samples from two coastal sites on seven separate dates, and aggregates formed in the laboratory in seawater samples taken on the same dates. Aggregates in field and laboratory samples were photographed and their dimensions were determined. Particulate composition of the aggregates was characterized by the abundance of diatoms, benthic diatoms, diatom frustules, mineral grains, fecal pellets, and fungal spores. Laboratory-prepared aggregates had a significantly greater short axis, and significantly larger calculated volume than field aggregates. Particulate compositions of field aggregates were paralleled by similar changes in the laboratory product. Dry weights of known numbers of aggregates collected on three dates indicated no significant differences in calculated densities or porosities of marine snow formed in the field and in the laboratory. We suggest that this method of forming marine snow in the laboratory may provide researchers with a useful experimental tool.     

Agent based simulation of a small catchment water management in northern Thailand: Description of the CATCHSCAPE model

Due to mounting human pressure, stakeholders in northern Thailand are facing crucial natural resources management (NRM) issues. Among others, the impact of upstream irrigation management on downstream agricultural viability is a growing source of conflict, which often has both biophysical and social origins. As multiple rural stakeholders are involved, appropriate solutions should only emerge from negotiation. CATCHSCAPE is a Multi-Agent System (MAS) that enables us to simulate the whole catchment features as well as farmer’s individual decisions. The biophysical modules simulate the hydrological system with its distributed water balance, irrigation scheme management and crop and vegetation dynamics. The social dynamics are described as a set of resource management processes (water, land, cash, labour force). Water management is described according to the actual different levels of control (individual, scheme and catchment). Moreover, the model’s architecture is presented in a way that emphasises the transparency of the rules and methods implemented. Finally, one simulated scenario is described along with its main results, according to different viewpoints (economy, landscape, water management).     

Biomass measurements and weight-to-weight conversion factors: a comparison of methods applied to the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis

Wet weight to ash-free dry weight conversion factors were calculated for the bivalve Mytilus galloprovincialis Lamarck; specimens were collected in November 1989 in the Magra Estuary (eastern Ligurian Sea, Italy). Ash-free dry weight was determined by four different methods: (A) mechanical separation of shell and body; (B) shell dissolution with HCl; (C) dissolution of organic matter with NaClO; (D) incineration of the whole organism. The results obtained by these four methods were significantly different, indicating that caution is necessary when comparing biomass data obtained by different methods. Incineration and decalcification with HCl seem to be the best procedures: they not only combine accuracy with speed, but are also the most universally applicable, being equally suitable for soft-bodied or hard-bodied organisms. Mechanical separation can lead to an underestimation of the biomass, whereas treatment with NaClO can lead to its overestimation. However, no method can be considered the best in absolute terms, the final choice depending on the particular weight measurement required (e.g. shell-free dry weight) and the nature of the organism concerned (e.g. an organism with a large carbonate content).     

Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.

To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of the projections for the wading bird guilds and several individual species. By exposing the differential effects of uncertainty, relative assessment can help resource managers assess the robustness of scenario choice in model-based policy decisions.     

Joint protected area management: a proposal for the management of Sanctuaries and National Parks in India

SUMMARY

With the aim of evaluating the biotic pressure on a protected area, Kuldiha Sanctuary in Orissa, India was taken as a case study. In the 19 villages lying within a 1 km radius of the Sanctuary, there are 9814 people with 19% literacy. Tribals constitute 73.3% of the population. Some 7507 head loaders collect firewood from the Sanctuary every day. In addition, 37 297 cattle enter the forest for grazing. Consequently alienating the people depending on the Sanctuary in the management and conservation of wild flora and fauna is not only futile but also detrimental to the socio-cultural-economic fabric of the ecosystem of the people. In this study, involvement of the local community in the protection and management of the Sanctuary and National Park is proposed and methods of implementation, funding and a legal framework are discussed.     

Sink populations in carnivore management: cougar demography and immigration in a hunted population.

Carnivores are widely hunted for both sport and population control, especially where they conflict with human interests. It is widely believed that sport hunting is effective in reducing carnivore populations and related human-carnivore conflicts, while maintaining viable populations. However, the way in which carnivore populations respond to harvest can vary greatly depending on their social structure, reproductive strategies, and dispersal patterns. For example, hunted cougar (Puma concolor) populations have shown a great degree of resiliency. Although hunting cougars on a broad geographic scale (> 2000 km2) has reduced densities, hunting of smaller areas (i.e., game management units, < 1000 km2), could conceivably fail because of increased immigration from adjacent source areas. We monitored a heavily hunted population from 2001 to 2006 to test for the effects of hunting at a small scale (< 1000 km2) and to gauge whether population control was achieved (lambda < or = 1.0) or if hunting losses were negated by increased immigration allowing the population to remain stable or increase (lambda > or = 1.0). The observed growth rate of 1.00 was significantly higher than our predicted survival/fecundity growth rates (using a Leslie matrix) of 0.89 (deterministic) and 0.84 (stochastic), with the difference representing an 11-16% annual immigration rate. We observed no decline in density of the total population or the adult population, but a significant decrease in the average age of independent males. We found that the male component of the population was increasing (observed male population growth rate, lambda(OM) = 1.09), masking a decrease in the female component (lambda(OF) = 0.91). Our data support the compensatory immigration sink hypothesis; cougar removal in small game management areas (< 1000 km2) increased immigration and recruitment of younger animals from adjacent areas, resulting in little or no reduction in local cougar densities and a shift in population structure toward younger animals. Hunting in high-quality habitats may create an attractive sink, leading to misinterpretation of population trends and masking population declines in the sink and surrounding source areas.     

Signaling and priming communication: Independent roles in the reproductive isolation of spatially-separated populations of rodents

Summary This research concerned the relative potential for signaling and priming incompatibilities to promote reproductive isolation in rodents. Signaling is defined here as involving behavioral responses, while priming involves endocrine responses. Compatibility of both types of communications was tested between two widely separated and markedly diverging populations of deermice, and between equally separated but much less divergent populations of house mice. Signaling compatibility was assessed by comparing the amount of aggression toward young females by adult males when the two sexes were of the same vs the different stock of the same species. Priming compatibility was tested by measuring the relative amounts of uterine growth induced in young females by exposure to adult males.No signaling or priming incompatibilities were detected during cross-testing of the house mouse stocks. A degree of developing reproductive isolation was observed between the two deermouse populations, however, and this isolation was reinforced by independently occurring incompatibilities of both the signaling and the priming type. The signaling incompatibility was particularly dramatic, manifesting itself in the killing of young females by adult males.The present results provide the first demonstration of a priming incompatibility supporting reproductive isolation in diverging populations of a mammal. Furthermore, our results suggest that signaling and priming systems are independently subject to evolutionary change even when both systems probably operate through the same sensory modality.     

Modeling spatial patterns in fisheries bycatch: improving bycatch maps to aid fisheries management.

Fisheries bycatch, or incidental take, of large vertebrates such as sea turtles, seabirds, and marine mammals, is a pressing conservation and fisheries management issue. Identifying spatial patterns of bycatch is an important element in managing and mitigating bycatch occurrences. Because bycatch of these taxa involves rare events and fishing effort is highly variable in space and time, maps of raw bycatch rates (the ratio of bycatch to fishing effort) can be misleading. Here we show how mapping bycatch can be enhanced through the use of Bayesian hierarchical spatial models. We compare model-based estimates of bycatch rates to raw rates. The model-based estimates were more precise and fit the data well. Using these results, we demonstrate the utility of this approach for providing information to managers on bycatch probabilities and cross-taxa bycatch comparisons. To illustrate this approach, we present an analysis of bycatch data from the U.S. gill net fishery for groundfish in the northwest Atlantic. The goals of this analysis are to produce more reliable estimates of bycatch rates, assess similarity of spatial patterns between taxa, and identify areas of elevated risk of bycatch.     

Achieving environmental goals in a world of trade and hidden action: the role of trade policies and eco-labeling

Importing countries often resort to trade policies and consumer actions in order to reduce negative environmental impacts of the products they consume. Traditionally, these policies were non-discriminatory, i.e., they treated all imports equally, without considering the actual damages caused by the product. More recently, there is a trend towards process-discriminatory policies which attempt to discriminate against environmentally unsound imports while encouraging sound alternatives. We develop a theoretical model of the consuming country's optimal trade policy, allowing for asymmetric information and costly monitoring, and analyze what type of policy is preferable under what conditions.     

Mineral depletion with cost as the extraction limit: A model applied to the behavior of prices in the nickel industry

This article follows papers by Pindyck and Heal and Barrow in applying a Hotelling-type depletion model to a particular resource industry: in this case that of nickel. By means of the model the resource rent per ton of nickel is calculated as the proper index of extractive resource scarcity. The time path of this resource rent indicates that the model explains industry behavior well and that, as in the two previous studies, depletion has been an important determinant of prices and rents in this industry.