Simulation of urban expansion patterns by integrating auto-logistic regression,Markov chain and cellular automata models

This research analyses urban expansion patterns and their eco-risks in the Poyang Lake region in China. A hybrid model consisting of auto-logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata (CA) is designed to improve the performance of the standard logistic regression model. An eco-risk assessment (ERA) index by integrating landscape fragmentation index and area weighted eco-service value index is established to promote the effectiveness for dynamically evaluating the environment and eco-security in watersheds. Scenario predictions are introduced to better understand the relationship between urban dynamics and their eco-risks. Three urban development scenarios such as historical development trend (HDT), environment protection priority (EPP) and goal-oriented restriction (GOR) are designed and transplanted into the CA model through the parameter self-modification method. The quantitative analysis results showed that in the period of the past five years, the urban growth primarily concentrated in the metropolitans. The simulations show that under the HDT scenario the urban growth will mainly emerge in the metropolitans, while under the EPP and GOR scenarios the urban growth will expand along with the metropolitans or the road networks and highways, respectively. Moreover, the ERA demonstrated that the GOR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of environment protection and urban sustainable development for the study area.     

Conservation strategies for effective land management of protected areas using an erosion prediction information system (EPIS)

This research demonstrates the predictive modeling capabilities of a geographic information system (GIS)-based soil erosion potential model to assess the effects of implementing land use change within a tropical watershed. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was integrated with a GIS to produce an Erosion Prediction Information System (EPIS) and modified to reflect conditions found in the mountainous tropics. Research was conducted in the Zenzontia subcatchment of the Río Ayuquíla, located within the Sierra de Manantlán Biosphere Reserve (SMBR), México. Expanding agricultural activities within this area will accentuate the already high rate of soil erosion and resultant sediment loading occurring in the Río Ayuquíla. Two land-use change scenarios are modeled with the EPIS: (1) implementation of soil conservation practices in erosion prone locations; and (2) selection of sites for agricultural expansion which minimize potential soil loss. Confronted with limited financial resources and the necessity for expedient action, managers of the SMBR can draw upon the predictive capacity of the EPIS to facilitate rapid and informed land-use planning decisions.     

The importance of differentiating urban and rural phenomena in examining the unequal distribution of locally desirable land

Previous research addressing the unequal distribution of locally desirable land (LDL) has mainly ignored their associated environments (i.e., rural or urban). However, this study proposed a new framework that treats rural and urban regions separately. In rural areas, the LDLs included all public lands. In urbanized areas, the LDLs were defined as green open spaces. Potential inequities in the distribution of LDL were assessed with respect to socioeconomic characteristics of residents in the State of Georgia. Using US Census Bureau Data (2000), Census Block Groups (CBGs) adjacent to LDLs were compared to CBGs outside of LDLs on four socioeconomic variables (per capita income, occupation, education, and race) in urban, suburban and rural environments. Results showed that CBGs adjacent to LDLs were composed of statistically significant upper-class communities containing fewer blue-collar workers, more whites, and higher income and higher educated people in rural, suburban and urban areas.     

Coupling a settlement growth model with an agro-economic land allocation model for securing ecosystem services provision

Mountain landscapes are undergoing rapid land-use changes. Settlement expansion, the intensification of agricultural land-use practices, and farmland abandonment result in a decline of natural and semi-natural habitats and the related ecosystem services (ES). In this context, spatial planning has emerged as a key instrument for the management of ES provision. To better understand trade-offs and interactions between settlement growth and ES provision in a spatially explicit manner, we present a new modeling framework coupling an agent-based, agro-economic optimization model and a cellular-automata-based settlement growth model. The framework is applied in an inner alpine valley in the Valais, Switzerland, which experienced rapid settlement growth in recent years. Results demonstrate how the model framework allows support of local planning processes. Particularly cooperation among municipalities and an explicit consideration of ES can inform spatially explicit ES trade-off decisions under increasing demand for land. We conclude that better informed spatial planning processes support ES provision.     

Participatory diagnosis in urban planning: proposal for a learning process based on geographical information

Urban planning involves compromise between the diverse and often contradictory issues supported by the different stakeholders. The literature generally agrees on the need to broaden the participation base to overcome this difficulty. However, participation should not be limited to problem solving, but should also take place in the problem setting phase. This paper proposes a participatory diagnosis process for structuring the problem setting phase. We describe an experiment in a participatory diagnosis conducted with the residents of a Geneva neighborhood. The experiment began by identifying the residents' concerns, which were then reformulated under broader issues. Some 20 spatial indicators were built using GIS tools, and were then applied in a second phase of resident consultations to assess the relative importance of each issue. The ensuing priority issues formed the core of the diagnosis. The approach emphasized comparison between the daily experiences of residents and so-called official information (i.e. census tract, traffic measurement, and so on). The residents were therefore involved in a learning process that allowed them to consolidate or modify their opinions. The process led to the emergence of a clearly defined collective awareness that supplanted individual aspirations.     

Conservation on private land: a review of global strategies with a proposed classification system

With parks and protected areas insufficient to sustain global biodiversity, the role of private land in biodiversity conservation is becoming increasingly significant. This paper reviews global voluntary and involuntary strategies for private land conservation. Involuntary strategies can achieve effective conservation outcomes, but often lack social acceptability. In contrast, voluntary strategies enjoy greater social acceptance but may not achieve sufficient uptake to have meaningful conservation objectives. Based on the review, we propose a classification system for private land conservation as a complement to the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN's) classification of global protected areas. The classification system provides a framework for identifying and describing conservation strategies on private land on the dimension of tenure and security. It also identifies opportunities and vulnerabilities in achieving conservation on private land while emphasising the need for systematic data collection similar to IUCN's efforts for protected areas.     

Using a geographical information system for monitoring space shuttle launches: Determining cumulative distribution of deposition and an empirical test of a spatial model

Space shuttle launches produce localized hydrochloric acid deposition. The interaction of solid rocket motor exhaust and deluge water released on the pad at the time of launch results in the formation of an exhaust cloud. The spatial pattern and extent of deposition from the launch cloud are predicted by the rocket exhaust effluent diffusion (REED) model. The actual pattern of deposition has been mapped by field surveys for each shuttle launch since 1981. In this paper we use a geographical information system (GIS) to compare model predictions with ground patterns for 49 shuttle launches. We also compile cumulative maps of deposition patterns needed to consider long-term impacts. The direction of launch cloud movement did not differ significantly from model predictions. The REED model overpredicted both the area that received deposition and the maximum distance from the launch pad that deposition occurred. Severe vegetation damage was restricted to near-field deposition areas within 1980 m north of each launch pad. Total area impacted from launches has been 87.0 ha around pad 39A and 52.9 ha around pad 39B. Far-field deposition has caused leaf spotting from acid droplets or aluminum oxide over a wider and more variable area than near-field. A total of 19,397 ha has received deposition, but 63.6% of this area has received deposition only one time and 92.2% not more than three times. GIS techniques provide means to test spatial models and compile information useful for assessing cumulative impacts.     

Nutrients and suspended solids in dry weather and storm flows from a tropical catchment with various proportions of rural and urban land use

The results of an investigation characterizing the nutrients and suspended solids contained in stormwater from Kranji Catchment in Singapore are reported in this paper. Stormwater samples were collected from 4 locations and analyzed for the following eleven analytes: TOC, DOC, TN, TDN, NH₄⁺, NO₂⁻ + NO₃⁻ (NO_x), TP, TDP, OP, SiO₂ and TSS. Stormwater was sampled from catchments with various proportions of rural and urban land use, including forested areas, grassed areas, agricultural and residential and commercial areas. The event mean concentrations (EMCs) of nutrients and TSS from sampling stations which have agricultural land use activities upstream were found to be higher. Comparison of site EMCs (SMCs) with published data showed that the SMCs of the nutrients and TSS are generally higher than SMCs reported for forested areas but lower than published SMCs for urban areas. Positive correlations (p < 5%) were found between loading and peak flow at locations most impacted by ubanisation or agricultural activities. Correlation between loading and rainfall variables was less distinct. EMC was found to correlate less with rainfall and flow variables compared to pollutant loading. Unlike loading, no consistent pattern exists linking EMC to any particular storm or flow variable in any of the catchments. Lastly, positive correlations were obtained between the particulate forms of nitrogen and phosphorus and TSS.     

The impact of land use and land cover changes on land surface temperature in a karst area of China

Satellite images have been used extensively to study temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in China. However, few studies have been conducted in the karst areas despite the large area and population involved and the fragile ecosystem. In this study, LULC changes were examined in part of Guizhou Province of southern China from 1991 to 2001 based on Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images of November 7, 1991, December 5, 1994, and December 19, 2001. Land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were computed based on LULC types. The results show that agricultural land decreased, while urban areas expanded dramatically, and forest land increased slightly. Barren land increased from 1991 to 1994, and then decreased from 1994 to 2001. These changes in LULC widened the temperature difference between the urban and the rural areas. The change in LST was mainly associated with changes in construction materials in the urban area and in vegetation abundance both in the urban and rural areas. Vegetation had a dual function in the temperatures of different LULC types. While it could ease the warming trend in the urban or built-up areas, it helped to keep other lands warmer in the cold weather. The study also reveals that due to the government's efforts on reforestation, rural ecosystems in some of the study area were being restored. The time required for the karst ecosystem to recover was shorter than previously thought.     

Social and economic impacts of carbon sequestration and land use change on peasant households in rural China: a case study of Liping, Guizhou Province

Numerous innovative approaches to mitigate effects of excessive emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) on global climate change are being proposed and formulated. Sequestering carbon to terrestrial ecosystems represents one of the important clean development mechanisms. Reforestation through converting various non-forest lands to forests is undoubtedly an important dimension of carbon sequestration. Using Liping County in Guizhou Province as a case region, this study examines the perceived change in social and economic livelihoods of peasants and the factors responsible for the variations in the changes. The results of the study reveal that socio-economic changes associated with the government-financed project are multifaceted and profound. Because of the financial subsidies provided by the central government, this environmental action in many aspects can be regarded as a poverty reduction measure in the underdeveloped area where rural poverty is widespread. A majority of peasant households have benefited from project participation. The land conversion project with continued financial support also contributes to the social transformations of traditional rural society in remote areas to a more mobile, less subsistence agriculture-based, and open society.     

The consequences of land use change on nutrient exports: a regional scale assessment in south-west Victoria, Australia

Estimation of nutrient load production based on multi-temporal remotely sensed land use data for the Glenelg-Hopkins region in south-west Victoria, Australia, is discussed. Changes in land use were mapped using archived Landsat data and computerised classification techniques. Land use change has been rapid in recent history with 16% of the region transformed in the last 22 years. Total nitrogen and phosphorus loads were estimated using an export coefficient model. The analysis demonstrates an increase in modelled nitrogen and phosphorus loadings from 1980 to 2002. Whilst such increases were suspected from past anecdotal and ad-hoc evidence, our modelling estimated the magnitude of such increases and thus demonstrated the enormous potential of using remote sensing and GIS for monitoring regional scale environmental processes.     

A case study of the opportunities and trade-offs associated with deproclamation of a protected area following a land claim in South Africa

Reconciling conservation and social justice imperatives is a major challenge facing many postcolonial states worldwide. Where historically disenfranchised communities have laid legal claim to protected areas, the typical resolution has been collaborative management agreements between the state and claimant communities. The real outcomes of such strategies for people and ecosystems have been seriously questioned, although alternative approaches are seldom explored. Here, we reflect on one such alternative that was pursued in a case in South Africa, where the land was handed back to the community and a replacement protected area created. Our objective was to explore the opportunities and trade-offs associated with this approach for communities and conservation agencies alike, and to compare these to typical collaborative management outcomes. Methods included key informant interviews, focus group discussions and household surveys. We find that, surprisingly, this approach created more benefits for the conservation agency than for claimant communities. Indeed, the community experiences bore a striking resemblance to those experienced in collaborative management settings: intra-community conflict, confusion over leadership and serious questions about the boundaries of the “community”. Processes aimed at redressing past injustice in disputes over conservation land, regardless of the approach adopted, must bring with them a strong commitment to building institutional and leadership capacities within communities, and pay serious attention to the ways in which equity and social justice can be fostered after the settlement of a land claim. Settlement agreements are frequently treated as the final step towards social justice, but are in fact just the beginning.     

德昌旱地粮菜四熟种植模式的效益和能量分析

德昌县旱地粮菜四熟模式是一年生产一季玉米和三季蔬菜。该模式可充分利用安宁河中下游丰富的温光资源,一年内亩产粮食627.5kg,蔬菜总计11935kg,经济收入2430.4元。其光能利用率达3.864%,能量产投比2.15,是适合城郊区旱地种植的一种较好模式。进一步增施磷钾肥是本模式获得更多农产品、提高资源利用率、维持和培肥土壤的重要措施。