An integrated assessment model of carbon sequestration benefits: a case study of Liping county, China

This research attempts to model the complexity of planting trees to increase China's CO(2) sequestration potential by using a GIS-based integrated assessment (IA) approach. We use the IA model to assess the impact of China's Grain for Green reforestation and afforestation program on farmer and state incomes as well as CO(2) sequestration in Liping County, Guizhou Province. The IA model consists of five sub-models for carbon sequestration, crop income, timber income, Grain for Green, and carbon credits. It also includes a complementary qualitative module for assessing program impacts by gender and ethnicity. Using four scenarios with various assumptions about types of trees planted, crop incomes by township, CO(2) credit prices, state subsidies, methods for estimating carbon sequestered, and harvesting of trees, we find great variation in the impact of the Grain for Green program on incomes and on carbon sequestered over a 48 year period at both the county and township levels.     

Evaluation of the economic and environmental impact of converting cropland to forest: a case study in Dunhua county, China

The Sloping Land Conversion Program (also known as "Grain for Green" or the Upland Conversion Program) for converting cropland to forest is one of China's most ambitious environmental initiatives, and is one of the world's largest land-conservation programs with a budget of RMB 337 billion (over US$ 40 billion). Although environmental impacts have played a vital role in the general reasoning and argumentation for forest plantations, environmental impact analyses have often received less attention than economic analyses in the planning of plantation forestry projects. The overall goal of this paper is to evaluate the program's environmental impact considering the farmer's interests and the potential social benefits due to carbon sequestration in different scenarios based on household and field survey data in Dunhua County. Our findings are that: (1) in many cases, the program did not give adequate consideration to land productivity and environmental heterogeneity when selecting plots; (2) more than half of the reforestation plots were on flat cropland (slopes of less than 5 degrees ); (3) in five of the eight townships, net incomes on reforested land were substantially above or below previous crop incomes, raising questions about the efficiency of the allocation of compensation to farmers participating in the program; (4) the potential carbon co-benefit increased the NPV of the program by 5954-7009 RMB/ha. In conclusion, we recommend that more attention should be paid to the quality of reforestation programs rather than just their scale and note that consideration of potential carbon sequestration co-benefits enhances the benefits of cropland conversion programs.     

The costs and benefits of reforestation in Liping County, Guizhou Province, China

Reducing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is becoming a pressing issue for the global community. Afforestation and reforestation are promoted worldwide as an effective means of sequestering carbon. For its national interest and global concerns, China has made great efforts to protect its existing forests and develop programs of afforestation and reforestation. Based on two surveys recently conducted in Liping County, Guizhou province, this paper investigates the economic changes associated with the implementation of the "Grain For Green" policy. Based on the analytical framework of benefit cost analysis, this paper concludes that the implementation of the reforestation of sloping agricultural land policy would not be possible if there were no government subsidies for the peasants. The short term economic returns of land and labour from forestation are substantially lower than those generated from grain or cash crop production on the steep slope lands. The government subsidies provide great economic incentives for peasants to take part in the project. The subsidies in fact have elevated peasant income in rural Liping. The estimated potential economic returns of plantations over the long run indicate that the removal of the government financial subsidies would not create an economic crisis for the peasants if the current market conditions continue.     

The impact of land use and land cover changes on land surface temperature in a karst area of China

Satellite images have been used extensively to study temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in China. However, few studies have been conducted in the karst areas despite the large area and population involved and the fragile ecosystem. In this study, LULC changes were examined in part of Guizhou Province of southern China from 1991 to 2001 based on Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images of November 7, 1991, December 5, 1994, and December 19, 2001. Land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were computed based on LULC types. The results show that agricultural land decreased, while urban areas expanded dramatically, and forest land increased slightly. Barren land increased from 1991 to 1994, and then decreased from 1994 to 2001. These changes in LULC widened the temperature difference between the urban and the rural areas. The change in LST was mainly associated with changes in construction materials in the urban area and in vegetation abundance both in the urban and rural areas. Vegetation had a dual function in the temperatures of different LULC types. While it could ease the warming trend in the urban or built-up areas, it helped to keep other lands warmer in the cold weather. The study also reveals that due to the government's efforts on reforestation, rural ecosystems in some of the study area were being restored. The time required for the karst ecosystem to recover was shorter than previously thought.     

Land use change and carbon exchange in the tropics: III. Structure,basic equations,and sensitivity analysis of the model

The rationale, assumptions, structure and basic mathematical functions of the model used to produce the simulation results reported in the first two articles of this series are described in detail. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the most important parameters in the model, and, presumably, in the carbon exchange between tropical forests and the atmosphere, are: (a) the conversion rate of forests to permanent pasture and agriculture, (b) the changes that are occurring and have occurred in the shifting cultivation system, and (c) the fate of cleared vegetation. Although it is not possible to validate the model against direct measurements of carbon exchange, the model has been proven robust when subject to a series of explicit analyses and comparisons with other assessments.     

Social, economic, and ecological impacts of the "Grain for Green" project in China: a preliminary case in Zhangye, Northwest China

This paper provides applications of the integrated assessment (IA) approach in a case study in the Heihe River Basin of Northwest China. Some socio-economic and ecological impact results of forestry land use scenarios are presented in the paper. While seven types of land use scenarios for carbon sequestration purposes were considered for the IA applications, this paper mainly presents impacts of land use scenarios within the Grain for Green (GFG) category [see Yin et al., this volume]. China's national Grain for Green Project was implemented in order to protect and improve ecosystems, while allowing an evolution of agricultural management practices compatible with raising peasants' incomes. Zhangye Prefecture, located in the Heihe River Basin of an arid area in Northwest China, was chosen as the investigation site of the IA case study. Based on fundamental orientation theory, the social sustainability impacts of GFG land use options were assessed. Between 2002 and 2004, the GFG project brought US$23.56 million yuan in net income to the prefecture's peasants. Project implementation resulted in a 1.71 Gg increase in net primary productivity (NPP), as well as a 44.36 Gg rise in net ecosystem productivity (NEP). This suggested that, in Zhangye Prefecture, the Grain for Green Project could enhance the sustainability and stability of the local society, increase peasants' net income, as well as protect and remediate local ecosystems.     

Land use change and carbon exchange in the tropics: I. Detailed estimates for Costa Rica,Panama, Peru,and Bolivia

Our group, composed of modelers working in conjunction with tropical ecologists, 3 has produced a simulation model that quantifies the net carbon exchange between tropical vegetation and the atmosphere due to land use change. The model calculates this net exchange by combining estimates of land use change with several estimates of the carbon stored in tropical vegetation and general assumptions about the fate of cleared vegetation. In this report, we use estimates of land use and carbon storage organized into sixlife zone (sensu Holdridge) categories to calculate the exchange between the atmosphere and the vegetation of four tropical countries. Our analyses of these countries indicate that this life zone approach has several advantages because (a) the carbon content of vegetation varies significantly among life zones, (b) much of the land use change occurs in life zones of only moderate carbon storage, and (c) the fate of cleared vegetation varies among life zones. Our analyses also emphasize the importance of distinguishing between temporary and permanent land use change, as the recovery of vegetation on abandoned areas decreases the net release of carbon due to clearing. We include sensitivity analysis of those factors that we found to be important but are difficult to quantify at present.     

An agent-based approach to explore the effect of voluntary mechanisms on land use change: A case in rural Queensland,Australia

In rural regions, land use changes (LUC) are often the result of the decision-making of individual farmers. To influence this decision-making, compulsory and voluntary mechanisms are implemented. However, farmers’ decision-making is a heterogeneous process that depends on their ability and willingness to take certain decisions. Discrepancies between farmers’ ability and willingness and the design of voluntary mechanisms occur frequently. This makes it necessary to understand how farmers’ participation in these mechanisms can affect LUC. The aim of this paper was to demonstrate an agent-based approach to analyse and explore how voluntary mechanisms can influence LUC processes in rural regions. This approach was applied to a rural region in Australia, where clearing of native vegetation has occurred for agricultural development. Historical land cover data and semi-structured interviews were used to parameterise an agent-based model. Factors that influence farmers’ ability and willingness to participate in these mechanisms were identified. Three scenarios were simulated with the model to explore how the implementation of different voluntary mechanisms can affect the landscape structure of the region. This paper identifies how the diversity of farmers’ decision-making can influence the landscape structure in the region. The advantages and limitations of an agent-based approach in relation to LUC research and policy are discussed.     

Urban land use,mobility and theory of science: exploring the potential for critical realism in empirical research

Academic discussion where the adequacy of positions within theory of science is illustrated by means of examples from empirical research studies seems to be an area of neglect. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to such a debate, using examples from investigations into the relationship between urban structure and travel behaviour. The main research question of these investigations was whether, and to what extent, urban structural conditions are influencing residents' transportation activity. In other words, is there a causal relationship between urban structure and travel behaviour? Furthermore, we asked whether results from studies of the relationship between land use and transport can provide a basis for predictions about the likely consequences of alternative land-use strategies. The methodology and empirical findings of the studies are discussed in the light of the theory of science position labelled ‘critical realism’, in an attempt to relate theory of science to empirical research, but also in order to contribute to the discussion of the usefulness of this specific approach. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of land use and land cover changes on the ambient temperature in a middle scale city, Takamatsu, in Southwest Japan

There is a lack of information on urban heat island impact on the thermal environment due to low populated urban sprawl, although densely populated urban sprawl impact has been identified by several researchers. The Takamatsu area has recently developed in a low populated urban sprawl style without any increase in population. This paper examined the impact of a low populated urban sprawl on the thermal environment through an analysis of the last 30 years data set and investigated the contribution of vegetation fraction and population density to the temperature trend. As a consequence, it was shown that one of the most significant causative factors of temperature increase is an expansion of non-vegetated area even without population growth. This result implied that vegetated zones should be maintained in urban areas in order to realize sustainable urbanization.     

Regional characteristics of land use in Northeast and Southern Blue Ridge Province: Associations with acid rain effects on surface-water chemistry

The Direct/Delayed Response Project (DDRP) is one of several studies being conducted by the United States Environmental Protection Agency to assess risk to surface waters from acidic deposition in the eastern United States. In one phase of DDRP, land use, wetland, and forest cover data were collected for statistical samples of 145 Northeast lake and 35 Southern Blue Ridge Province stream watersheds in the United States. Land-use and other data then were extrapolated from individual to target watershed populations. Project statistical design allows summarization of results for various subsets of the target population. This article discusses results and implications of the land-use and land-cover characterization for both regions. Forest cover was the primary land use in both regions. In the Northeast, developed (agriculture and urban) land was positively associated with surface-water chemistry values for acid neutralizing capacity, Ca plus Mg, pH, and sulfate in the Pocono/Catskill subregion. Extensive wetlands and beaver activity occur in parts of the Northeast region, whereas topography limits wetland and riparian development in the Southern Blue Ridge Province. Northeast soils have low sulfate adsorption capacity, most watersheds are near sulfur steady state, and lake sulfate concentrations are controlled principally by levels of sulfur deposition. Net annual sulfur retention in Northeast watersheds is positively correlated with occurrence of wetlands and beaver impoundments. In contrast, most Southern Blue Ridge Province soils have high sulfate adsorption capacities, resulting in high net watershed sulfur retention. At the present time, stream sulfate concentrations and percent sulfur retention are controlled principally by soil chemical properties related to adsorption rather than atmospheric deposition and land use. The information in this document has been funded wholly by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. It has been subjected to the agency's peer and administrative review, and it has been approved for publication as an EPA document. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.     

Particulates pollution management and economic analysis of small rural enterprises in mountain areas: A case study of Wenquan town in China

At present, many rural enterprises in China's mountainous areas are developing rapidly, and due to poor planning and improper management, in an uncontrolled manner. These small enterprises are making atmospheric pollution far more serious and more difficult to control than before. Thus, as is the case with most developing countries, China is facing the challenge of managing the increased environmental pollution that is accompanying its economic development. This paper examines the case of cement dust pollution in the town of Wenquan in Sichuan province in order to determine how to adjust the relationship between development of rural enterprises and atmospheric environmental pollution in mountainous areas. Using the single objective linear programming method, and based on the principle of overall optimization, an optimal control plan for different pollution sources was worked out and an economic assessment on reclamation of cement dust was completed. According to our analysis, after implementation of this plan for four years, two months, the concentrations of suspended particles in Wenquan will achieve the requirement of the national third-order ambient air quality standard; the current serious dust pollution will be completely controlled; and the reclamation of cement dust will totally compensate for the cost of dust control and will result in 92,000 yuan of pure profit per year. At that time, the economy and environment will be in harmony.     

Social and economic considerations in conserving wetlands of indo-gangetic plains: A case study of Kabartal wetland,India

The Kabartal wetland situated in the upper Indo-Gangetic flood plains in northern India is significant because of its hydrological and ecological services, and the socio-economic and cultural values that it represents. Despite being designated as a wildlife sanctuary, this wetland is under threat from anthropogenic pressures. As in the case of most wetlands, the reason is incomplete information on its ecological services and functions, breakdown of traditional management structures and the lack of appropriate and recognized property rights. Our study assesses the economic linkages between the Kabartal wetland and the local people living around it, through socio-economic surveys and Contingent Valuation Method (CVM). The major objective of the study was to determine the importance of this wetland to the local people and to give an indication of the distribution of the benefits among various stakeholders. The people in the region are poor, have low literacy levels and high dependence on Kabartal and more than 50% want that the wetland should be drained and the land used for agriculture. However, they are willing to participate in collaborative management initiatives with the state. The willingness of people to accept compensation, as an alternative to access to Kabartal wetland, regressed on various socio-economic and attitudinal parameters, gave an estimated mean value of US $27,500 per household over a period of 60 years. This value is a pointer of the total value of access to Kabartal wetland to the surrounding villagers and would be useful when decisions to compensate people for lost access to Kabartal are made.     

A methodology of characterizing status and trend of land changes in oases: a case study of Sangong River watershed, Xinjiang, China

Land change is often studied with Markov models to develop a probability transition matrix. The existing methods dependent on such matrixes cannot effectively characterize some important aspects associated with land change such as status, direction, trend and regional variations. This study presents mathematical models to quantify these elements, defining unbalanced, quasi-balanced and balanced status, one- and two-way transitions and the rising or falling trends. Using these models and remote-sensing imageries, the landscape was studied for a case area, the oasis of Sangong River in Xinjiang, Northwest China where typical arid conditions prevail. Land expansion and contraction among various land types and for the entire oasis were analyzed for the periods of 1978-1987, 1978-1998 and 1987-1998. The changes were closely related to a strong economic growth after the land-reform campaign and adoption of the market economy in China in the 1980s to early 1990s, a process not strictly Markovian that requires stationarity and randomness. Information on land-change status and trend is important for a better understanding of the underlying driving processes but also for land-use planning and decision-making.     

Influence of farm resource endowment on possibilities for sustainable development: a case study for vegetable farms in South Uruguay

In different parts of the world, there is an urgent need for redesigning and innovating farming systems. Such a process may be supported by model-based explorations that enable ex-ante evaluation of a broad range of alternatives. Since a variety of viable patterns of farm development exists related to farm resource endowment and farmer's strategy, model-based explorations should be able to capture the existing variation in resource endowment and strategies in order to have impact on strategic farm management. In this paper, we present an overview of the model-based explorative method based on the MILP model Farm Images, applied to explore options for sustainable development of vegetable farms in Canelón Grande, Uruguay. The method is used to gain insight into the impact of current farm resource endowment on the possibilities for sustainable development and on the resource use efficiency at farm scale. We maximized farm income for 128 different farm types in an environment-oriented scenario and in an income-oriented scenario. Farm types were defined by combining 4 farm sizes, 2 labor endowments, 4 irrigation endowments, 2 soil quality combinations and 2 mechanization levels. The results demonstrate a strong impact of farm resource endowment on possibilities for sustainable development, as well as synergy between labor, land and irrigated area on resource-use efficiency at farm scale. Farms with 10ha of land or less, representing 47% of the farms in the Canelón Grande region, could only achieve a family income higher than the average income of Uruguayan families when the irrigated area was ca. 40% of the farm area. The achievement of environmental targets was less costly in terms of income on farms with a low rather than high labor availability per unit area and on farms with irrigation facilities.