A goal interval programming model for resource allocation in a marine environmental protection program

A multidimensional “goal programming” model is developed to aid resource allocation decisions in the U. S. Coast Guard's Marine Environmental Protection (MEP) program. It is then extended to a model of “goal interval programming” (GIP ) type where exact values for the indicated goals, as in ordinary goal programming, are replaced by ranges. Deviations outside these ranges are also accommodated by piecewise linear functions with slopes that vary with distance from the goal intervals. Uses and generalizations are discussed in the context of applications to allocating manhours and planning the activities of the Coast Guard's MEP program.     

Alternative policy instruments under uncertainty: A programming model of toxic pollution control

This paper presents the results of a programming model which examines the relative performance of different regulatory regimes under uncertainty in controlling toxic wastes discharged by industry to a central treatment plant when the central is subject to threshold-type losses in treatment performance. Four regulatory regimes are examined: non-market quantity, price, marketable permit, and mixed price-quantity. The theoretical framework of the model is based on the analysis of prices vs quantities by Weitzman in 1974 and its extension to the case of a discontinuous threshold effect. The data used are based on the situation of Bridgeport, Connecticut, which has a number of metal finishing firms.     

A fuzzy goal programming with interval target model and its application to the decision problem of renewable energy planning

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Optimizing sustainable renewable energy portfolios is one of the most complicated decision making problems in energy policy planning. This process involves...     

A model for ecological assessment to pesticide pollution management

Applying the relational analysis in the Grey System Theory and Method, the comprehensive evaluation on five pesticide pollution controlling techniques in the vegetable production has been made and a comprehensive profit (cp–comprehensive cost (cc) evaluation system (composed of 15 comprehensive cost indices and 14 comprehensive profit indices) has been established, with a index optimization matrix of comprehensive cost indices and comprehensive profit indices obtained and a ratio model of comprehensive cost to comprehensive profit (R_cc/cp) built. Results show that the R_cc/cp value of vegetables intercropping soybeans in insect-proof thin film greenhouses is the smallest and the R_cc/cp value of vegetables intercropping taros in insect-proof net greenhouses, pheromones in insect-proof thin film greenhouses, pheromones in insect-proof thin film greenhouses and ground planting (only using chemical pesticide for insect-proof without covering materials and synthetic sex pheromone) other four techniques are 0.6268, 0.6393, 0.6407, 0.9809 respectively. In accordance with the R_cc/cp value, vegetables intercropping soybeans in insect-proof thin film greenhouses can be the most optimized pesticide pollution controlling technique in the vegetable growing.     

Benzo(a)pyrene monooxygenase induction in marine fish-molecular response to oil pollution

Induction of benzo (a) pyrene monooxygenase (BPMO) activity occurred in Blennius pavo, a species with a restricted territorial range, in response to exposure to a Diesel 2 oil. A response delay of 14 days was found at a concentration of 170 ppb and of 3 days when the water was saturated with Diesel 2 oil. When induced fish were transferred to clean water, elevated BPMO activity was maintained at a high level for at least a month. A benthic protochordate, Microcosmos sulcatus, showed no increase in BPMO activity when exposed to these concentrations even after 30 days of exposure. Field observations revealed a great variation in the BPMO activity from B. pavo caught at different sites. Fish from contaminated sites had significantly elevated levels of BPMO activity. Sardine schools caught at different sites had different, low levels of BPMO activities. However, specimens from the same school had closely similar levels of enzyme activity. An oil pollution incident (New Year 1977 oil spill in Northern Adriatic Sea) caused an increase in the BPMO activity in the livers of Blenniideae, reaching a peak on the 23rd day (representing an 8.5-fold increase in the background level), followed by a decrease in activity until a new background level, 3 times that of the original background level, was reached on the 45th day. This new background level is constant (through May-5 months after the incident). Measurement of BPMO activity in the livers of nonmigrant fish could serve as a useful biochemical parameter for monitoring and evaluation of acute or long-term oil pollution at a given site.     

A new method for detecting pollution effects on marine macrobenthic communities

A method is described by which the pollution status of a marine macrobenthic community may be assessed without reference to a temporal or spatial series of control samples. Theoretical considerations suggest that the distribution of numbers of individuals among species should behave differently from the distribution of biomass among species when influenced by pollution-induced disturbance. Combined k-dominance plots for species biomass and numbers take three possible forms representing unpolluted, moderately polluted and grossly polluted conditions, one curve acting as an internal control against which the other can be compared. Field data from unpolluted communities and from a well documented temporal pollution gradient support the model, but further empirical testing is required.     

A review of marine pollution issues in the Caribbean

Marine pollution and coastal degradation have become serious development issues in the Caribbean. Early evidence of marine pollution was mainly anecdotal, but within the last 10--15 years, work conducted by universities and research institutions in the Region has provided the beginnings of a database that identifies several common marine pollution problems. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and the Pan American World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) have also been instrumental in co-ordinating several marine pollution studies. In the English-speaking Caribbean, the University of the West Indies, the Institute of Marine Affairs in Trinidad and Tobago, and the Caribbean Environmental Health Institute located in St Lucia, have taken a lead role in identifying marine pollution problems in their Sub-Region. For the Wider Caribbean a database for petroleum pollution and marine debris has been developed. Land-based sources of marine pollution have been identified as a major problem, with several hot spots identified in mainland countries and in some of the larger industrialised islands. Organic and nutrient pollution, particularly from sewage, is most widespread and is possibly the most serious marine pollution problem in the Caribbean. A lack of capital investment funds to install the appropriate infrastructure to deal with sewage and other liquid effluents is a major stumbling block to solving the problem of marine pollution in the Caribbean. Other factors include political will and administrative and legal structures to regulate human development activities.     

A model of mining and exploring for exhaustible resources

A model of extractive industries is developed, in which firms select the time-paths of exploration and extraction that maximize their present values. Two externalities unique to the exploration process are found to distort industry behavior. Industry behavior is simulated under conditions of competition, monopoly, and central management, and the effects of percentage depletion allowances and changes in the discount rate are observed. Monopolists overconserve the resource and hold excess reserves; competitors who enter mineral lands freely tend to overexplore and overextract; percentage depletion allowances decrease reserves; and higher discount rates reduce extraction in the long run.     

A general bioeconomic simulation model for annual-crop marine fisheries

A generalized bioeconomic simulation model of annual-crop marine fisheries is described and its use in marine fisheries management is demonstrated. The biological submodel represents the recruitment of new organisms into the fishery, the movement of organisms from one fishing area to another and from one depth to another, the growth of organisms and the mortality of organisms resulting both from natural causes and from fishing. The economic submodel represents the fishing effort exerted on each resource species, the monetary costs of fishing, the value of the harvest and the rent (or excess profits) to the fishery.Basic dynamics of the model results from changes in the number of organisms in the fishery over time, which can be summarized as a set of difference equations of the general form ΔN/Δt = R + I ? E ? M ? F where ΔN/Δt is the net change in number of organisms in the fishery over time, R is recruitment, I is immigration, E is emigration, M is natural mortality and F is fishing mortality. R is a driving variable, whereas I, E, M and F are functions of the state of the system at any given point in time. The model can be run in a deterministic or stochastic mode. Values for parameters affecting rates of recruitment, movement, growth, natural mortality and fishing mortality can be selected from uniform, triangular or normal distributions.Use of the model within a fisheries-management framework is demonstrated by evaluating several management alternatives for the pink shrimp (Penaeus duorarum) fishery on the Tortugas grounds in the Gulf of Mexico. Steps involved in use of the model, including parameterization, validation, sensitivity analysis and stochastic simulations of management policies, are explained.     

A model for wildfire prevention planning in game resources

The high incidence of hunting activity and forest fires in different ecosystems (particularly in Mediterranean ecosystems) requires a model, which allows for the comprehensive management of hunting resources and estimating the potential damage caused by this type of disturbance. This paper proposes a model for evaluating the socio-economic effects of forest fires on hunting. Its cornerstone lies in evaluating hunting resource availability for each ecosystem within its territorial mosaic. Each game management unit (GMU) is identified by vegetation structure and habitat type. It presents a novel approach in which the economic value of each game management unit is linked to potential forest fire damages. The effect a forest fire has on an entire ecosystem depends on the intensity of its flames. A sample study was undertaken in the province of Huelva in Andalusia (southern Spain). The socio-economic hunting vulnerability of the province of Huelva was 45,188,000€. The results obtained confirmed the need for an economic appraisal of non-forest products in the forest and other woodland areas. Geographic Information System increases the flexibility and simplicity of our methodology which permits immediate extrapolation to other agroforestry territories.     

Alterations inras-gene expression and intracellular distribution of protein kinase C in the spongeGeodia cydonium in response to marine pollution

The siliceous spongeGeodia cydonium Jameson was used to study the influence of pollution in marine environments on selected parameters of the intracellular signal transduction pathway. The parameters chosen were: intracellular distribution of protein kinase C (PK-C),ras-gene expression and DNA polymerasealpha (DNA Polalpha) activity. Both PK-C andras-gene product (ras-protein) have previously been established to be key molecules in the intracellular signalling pathway in sponges; increased level ofras-protein mediates events following sponge cell-cell contact. Three unpolluted and three polluted sites in the off-shore seawater around Rovinj (Yugoslavia) were selected for the study in 1989. The state of pollution of these sites has been well-defined in a series of previous studies (1976 to 1989). Transplantation of regenerating sponge cubes ofG. cydonium to the polluted sites resulted in pronounced changes in the parameters chosen, compared to controls exposed to unpolluted environments. Expression ofras gene was increased by three- to five-fold after exposure of regenerating sponge tissue to the impacted sites. At the site with the highest pollutional load,ras mRNA level was about 50% of that at the reference sites. In parallel experiments it was established that, in response to pollution, a translocation of PK-C from the cytosolic to membrane fraction occurred. At the most impacted site, most of the enzyme activity was cytosolic. DNA Polalpha-activity, as a measure of sponge cell proliferation, decreased in a pollutioncorrelated manner. Our results indicate that the intracellular signalling system within sponge cells is activated in response to moderate pollution but is depressed in heavily polluted environments.     

Interoperable web GIS services for marine pollution monitoring and forecasting

This paper presents services and systems developed in the FP6 InterRisk (Interoperable GMES Services for Environmental Risk Management in Marine and Coastal Areas of Europe) project, which addresses the need for better access to information for risk management in Europe, both in cases of natural hazards and industrial accidents. The overall objective of the project is to develop a pilot system for interoperable GMES monitoring and forecasting services for environmental management in marine and coastal areas. This pilot system is based on established and widely adopted web-GIS standards, in line with INSPIRE recommendations. The pilot is comprised of, among other things, a portal and a web-GIS map viewer, both developed using open source tools. Providers using commercial tools adhering to the adopted standards, however, can also deliver products to the InterRisk pilot. The InterRisk services and system are based on a combination of free and commercial software, and have been demonstrated to end-users in three European areas: Norwegian, UK and Irish waters, and German and Polish waters. Products and services offered in these areas are presented, along with an outline of the technical development of web-GIS clients and portals.

A model for approving and controlling sea water pollution for recreational activity

A model for assessing approval of a beach for recreational water activity was proposed. The model is based upon a sanitary survey together with intensive microbiological monitoring three times a day, five times a week for a month. In highly populated areas, continuous surveys once a day, five days a week are needed in order to assure the cleanliness and safety of these beaches.

Due to our intensive monitoring system, we can assure that Tel‐Aviv has one of the cleanest beaches near a metropolitan area in the Mediterranean Sea.     

A simulation model to evaluate the impacts of invasive earthworms on soil carbon dynamics

Recent studies have reported that earthworm invasions alter native communities and impact nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We developed a simulation model to evaluate the potential impacts of earthworm invasions on carbon dynamics, taking into consideration earthworm feeding strategies and priming effects on the microorganisms through their casting activities. Responses of carbon stocks (forest litter, soil organic matter, microbial biomass and earthworm populations) and carbon fluxes (litter decomposition, earthworm consumption, and microbial respiration) were used to evaluate an earthworm invasion of a forest ecosystem. Data from a northern temperate forest (Arnot Forest, New York) were adapted for model calibration and evaluation. Simulation results suggest that the impact and outcome of earthworm invasions are affected by pre-invasion resource availability (litter and soil organic matter), invasive earthworm assemblages (particularly feeding strategy), and invasion history (associated with earthworm population dynamics). The abovementioned factors may also determine invasion progress of earthworm species. The accuracy of the model could be improved by the addition of environmental modules (e.g., soil water regimes), precise parameters accounting for individual species attributes under different environmental conditions (e.g. utilization ability of different types of food resources), as well as earthworm population dynamics (size and structure) and interactions with predators and other invasive/indigenous species during the invasion progress. Such an earthworm invasion model could provide valuable evaluation of the complicated responses of carbon dynamics to earthworm invasions in a range of forest ecosystems, particularly under global change scenarios.     

A political economy model of implementing pollution laws

A model of the implementation process as applied in pollution control is developed. It differs from previous bureaucracy models in that it subjects the control agency to pressures from both firms and procontrol citizen groups. Each of these three actors maximizes utility over environmental quality and some other variable. Environmental quality may be in the actor's preference function or it may represent derived demand. Working through the agency budget and other policy variables, each actor constrains another actor's attempts to move policy in preferred directions. This results in movement toward a concensus environmental quality, not necessarily the efficient quality. Several institutional changes are analyzed to demonstrate the workings of the model.     

A flexible spatio-temporal model for air pollution with spatial and spatio-temporal covariates

The development of models that provide accurate spatio-temporal predictions of ambient air pollution at small spatial scales is of great importance for the assessment of potential health effects of air pollution. Here we present a spatio-temporal framework that predicts ambient air pollution by combining data from several different monitoring networks and deterministic air pollution model(s) with geographic information system covariates. The model presented in this paper has been implemented in an R package, SpatioTemporal, available on CRAN. The model is used by the EPA funded Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) to produce estimates of ambient air pollution; MESA Air uses the estimates to investigate the relationship between chronic exposure to air pollution and cardiovascular disease. In this paper we use the model to predict long-term average concentrations of \(\text {NO}_{x}\) in the Los Angeles area during a 10 year period. Predictions are based on measurements from the EPA Air Quality System, MESA Air specific monitoring, and output from a source dispersion model for traffic related air pollution (Caline3QHCR). Accuracy in predicting long-term average concentrations is evaluated using an elaborate cross-validation setup that accounts for a sparse spatio-temporal sampling pattern in the data, and adjusts for temporal effects. The predictive ability of the model is good with cross-validated \(R^2\) of approximately \(0.7\) at subject sites. Replacing four geographic covariate indicators of traffic density with the Caline3QHCR dispersion model output resulted in very similar prediction accuracy from a more parsimonious and more interpretable model. Adding traffic-related geographic covariates to the model that included Caline3QHCR did not further improve the prediction accuracy.     

A dynamic programming implemented resource competition game theoretic model

Resource competition is commonly occurred in animal populations and studied intensively by researchers. Previous studies have applied game theoretic model by finding Nash equilibrium to investigate this phenomenon. However computation of the Nash equilibrium requires an understanding of the payoff matrix that allocates the rewards received by players when they adopt each of the strategies in the game. In our study we present a dynamic programming implemented framework to compute 2 × 2 intraspecific finite resource allocation game's payoff matrix explicitly. We assume that two distinct types of individuals, aggressive and non-aggressive, are in the population. Then we divide the entire animal development period into three different stages: initialization, quasilinear growth and termination. Each stage for each type of players is specified with their own development coefficient, which determines how resource consumption could convert into strength as reward. Each player has equal and finite resource at the beginning of their development and fights against other players in the population to maximize its own potential reward. Based on these assumptions it is reasonable to use backward induction dynamic programming to compute payoff matrix. We present numerical examples for three different types of aggressive individuals and compute the payoff matrices correspondingly. Then we use the derived payoff matrices to determine the Nash equilibrium and Evolutionary Stable Strategy. Our research provide a framework for future quantitative studies on animal resource competition problems and could be expanded to n-players interspecific stochastic asymmetric resource allocation problem by changing some settings of dynamic programming formulation.     

A model for energetics and bioaccumulation in marine mammals with applications to the right whale.

We present a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for marine mammals, coupled with a pharmacokinetic model of a lipophilic persistent toxicant. Inputs to the model are energy availability and lipid-normalized toxicant concentration in the environment. The model predicts individual growth, reproduction, bioaccumulation, and transfer of energy and toxicant from mothers to their young. We estimated all model parameters for the right whale; with these parameters, reduction in energy availability increases the age at first parturition, increases intervals between reproductive events, reduces the organisms' ability to buffer seasonal fluctuations, and increases its susceptibility to temporal shifts in the seasonal peak of energy availability. Reduction in energy intake increases bioaccumulation and the amount of toxicant transferred from mother to each offspring. With high energy availability, the toxicant load of offspring decreases with birth order. Contrary to expectations, this ordering may be reversed with lower energy availability. Although demonstrated with parameters for the right whale, these relationships between energy intake and energetics and pharmacokinetics of organisms are likely to be much more general. Results specific to right whales include energy assimilation estimates for the North Atlantic and southern right whale, influences of history of energy availability on reproduction, and a relationship between ages at first parturition and calving intervals. Our model provides a platform for further analyses of both individual and population responses of marine mammals to pollution, and to changes in energy availability, including those likely to arise through climate change.     

Coupling ecology and GIS to evaluate efficacy of marine protected areas in Hawaii.

In order to properly determine the efficacy of marine protected areas (MPAs), a seascape perspective that integrates ecosystem elements at the appropriate ecological scale is necessary. Over the past four decades, Hawaii has developed a system of 11 Marine Life Conservation Districts (MLCDs) to conserve and replenish marine resources around the state. Initially established to provide opportunities for public interaction with the marine environment, these MLCDs vary in size, habitat quality, and management regimes, providing an excellent opportunity to test hypotheses concerning MPA design and function using multiple discrete sampling units. Digital benthic habitat maps for all MLCDs and adjacent habitats were used to evaluate the efficacy of existing MLCDs using a spatially explicit stratified random sampling design. Analysis of benthic cover validated the a priori classification of habitat types and provided justification for using these habitat strata to conduct stratified random sampling and analyses of fish habitat utilization patterns. Results showed that a number of fish assemblage characteristics (e.g., species richness, biomass, diversity) vary among habitat types, but were significantly higher in MLCDs compared with adjacent fished areas across all habitat types. Overall fish biomass was 2.6 times greater in the MLCDs compared to open areas. In addition, apex predators and other species were more abundant and larger in the MLCDs, illustrating the effectiveness of these closures in conserving fish populations within their boundaries. Habitat type, protected area size, and level of protection from fishing were all important determinates of MLCD effectiveness with respect to their associated fish assemblages. Although size of these protected areas was positively correlated with a number of fish assemblage characteristics, all appear too small to have any measurable influence on the adjacent fished areas. These protected areas were not designed for biodiversity conservation or fisheries enhancement yet still provide varying degrees of protection for fish populations within their boundaries. Implementing this type of biogeographic process, using remote sensing technology and sampling across the range of habitats present within the seascape, provides a robust evaluation of existing MPAs and can help to define ecologically relevant boundaries for future MPA design in a range of locations.