Evaluation of the Fire Simulation Processes of the National Fire Management System's Initial Attack Analysis Processor

The fire simulation processes of the National Fire Management System's (NFMAS) Initial Attack Analysis (IAA) processor were evaluated by conducting two types of sensitivity analysis: one based on a hypothetical set of data to assess IAA's outputs under a wide range of fire input values, and the other using an actual Stanislaus National Forest database to test IAA's validity with a real set of data. The results revealed that IAA's outputs (projected annual number of fires and area burned) were most sensitive, in descending order, to the input values of the fire spread rate, the productivity rates of the suppression forces, and the initial attack time, for all fuel models tested. In contrast, IAA's outputs were extremely insensitive to variations in the fire size at discovery. Changes are necessary in the ways IAA incorporates the fire size at discovery to facilitate the comparison among various fire detection options. The program's “escaped fire situation” analysis was found inadequate, because the projected annual frequencies and final sizes of the simulated escaped fire events produced unacceptable results with the Stanislaus National Forest database. Assigning final sizes to simulated escaped fires according to the fire intensity level in which they are historically expected to occur provides a consistent way of calculation of the projected annual area burned and the consequent cost plus net value change (C + NVC).     

Monitoring the Response of Butterfly Communities to Prescribed Fire

Federal land managers in the western United States are interested in the potential of prescribed fire as a tool to decrease fuel loads, increase vegetational heterogeneity, and increase faunal diversity in various ecosystems. I tested whether implementation of a prescribed fire program by the US Forest Service in a watershed in the central Great Basin had significant effects on butterfly species richness and composition. I monitored butterfly communities during the first two years after implementation in five to seven burn units and controls in the watershed. To estimate baseline spatial and temporal variation in butterfly communities in the greater ecosystem, I also monitored butterflies in five untreated canyons outside the project area. Butterfly species richness and butterfly species composition (measured as community similarity) did not differ significantly between burn units and controls. Geographic location had statistically significant effects on species richness. Butterfly species composition of individual locations varied over time, as did the magnitude of that variation. These results emphasize that standardized, repeatable monitoring protocols are vital for evaluating the effects of experimental management treatments and for predicting and assessing the effects of future management strategies and environmental changes.     

Effects of Recreational Impacts on Soil Microbial Communities

/ The functional diversity of soil microbial communities in heavilyimpacted subalpine campsites and adjacent undisturbed areas was comparedusing the Biolog method of carbon utilization profiles. Principal componentsanalysis of patterns and level of microbial activity indicate that microbialcommunities differentiate in response to disturbance in the top 6 cm of soil,while below 6 cm there were no recognizable differences between disturbed andundisturbed soil communities. Analysis of the factors that differentiate theupper microbial communities between disturbed and undisturbed sites revealedthat the percent of total carbon sources utilized was significantly less inthe disturbed (54%) than in undisturbed areas (95%). Carbonsubstrates important in the discrimination between soil communities includeplant, invertebrate, and microbial derivatives that could not be metabolizedby microbial communities from disturbed sites. Comparisons of totalculturable actinomycetes, bacteria, and fungi reveal no difference in overallnumber of colony forming units (CFU) on disturbed and undisturbed sites, buta marked decrease in actinomycetes on disturbed sites. Biolog andspread-plate data combined indicate a shift in the structure and function ofthe microbial community in campsite soils, which may be a useful indicator ofsoil community disturbance.KEY WORDS: Microbial functional diversity; Anthropogenic disturbance;Recreational impacts; Carbon source profile; Subalpine     

An analysis of factors leading to the establishment of a social licence to operate in the mining industry

Communities around the world have increasingly come to demand more involvement in decision making for local mining projects, a greater share of benefits from them if they are to proceed, and assurances that mineral development will be conducted safely and responsibly. At the same time, Bridge (2004) notes full legal compliance with state environmental regulations has become an increasingly insufficient means of satisfying society's expectations with regards to mining issues. There is now a recognised need for mineral developers to gain an additional ‘social licence to operate’ (SLO) in order to avoid potentially costly conflict and exposure to business risks. However, there is a correspondingly limited amount of scholarship specifically focused on SLO. More particularly, there is a need for research that uncovers those factors that lead to the issuance (or non-issuance) of a SLO in the complex and changeable environments that often characterise mineral development. In an effort to identify key determinants of SLO outcomes in the mining industry, this paper presents a comparative case study analysis of four international mining operations: Red Dog Mine in Alaska, USA; Minto Mine in Yukon, Canada; the proposed Tambogrande Mine in Peru; and the Ok Tedi Mine in Papua New Guinea. The analysis that is presented also makes use of insights from supplementary key informant interviews conducted by the author and the emerging literature on mining and communities. Five lessons for earning a SLO emerged from this analysis: (1) context is key; (2) a social licence to operate is built on relationships; (3) sustainability is a dominant concern for communities; (4) local benefits provision and public participation play a crucial role; and (5) adaptability is needed to confront complexity.     

Short- and Longer-Term Effects of Fire and Herbivory on Sagebrush Communities in South-Central Montana

To better understand the role of herbivory and fire as potential disturbance processes in sagebrush communities, we examined responses of a grazing ungulate, elk (Cervus elaphus), following prescribed burning of sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata ssp. vaseyana) in south-central Montana (USA.) with concurrent monitoring of changes in plant production, nutritional quality, and community diversity from 1989–1999. Burning transformed low-diversity, sagebrush-dominated communities into high-diversity, graminoid-forb communities that persisted for 10 years without significant reestablishment of sagebrush. Elk increased use of burned sites one year after burning, but elk use returned to pre-burn levels over the next two to nine years. Forage biomass and nutritional quality declined after initial increases that coincided with increased elk use. Increases in elk use appeared to be influenced by increases in combined graminoid and forb production and changes in structural vegetation characteristics that permitted greater foraging efficiency. Declines in use were associated with loss of nutritional enhancement and declines in combined graminoid and forb production. Managers may observe only short-term responses from grazing ungulates to prescribed fire in sagebrush communities, but can expect longer-term increases in plant diversity and establishment of graminoid-forb communities.     

Defining Acceptable Levels for Ecological Indicators: An Approach for Considering Social Values

Ecological indicators can facilitate an adaptive management approach, but only if acceptable levels for those indicators have been defined so that the data collected can be interpreted. Because acceptable levels are an expression of the desired state of the ecosystem, the process of establishing acceptable levels should incorporate not just ecological understanding but also societal values. The goal of this research was to explore an approach for defining acceptable levels of ecological indicators that explicitly considers social perspectives and values. We used a set of eight indicators that were related to issues of concern in the Lake Champlain Basin. Our approach was based on normative theory. Using a stakeholder survey, we measured respondent normative evaluations of varying levels of our indicators. Aggregated social norm curves were used to determine the level at which indicator values shifted from acceptable to unacceptable conditions. For seven of the eight indicators, clear preferences were interpretable from these norm curves. For example, closures of public beaches because of bacterial contamination and days of intense algae bloom went from acceptable to unacceptable at 7–10 days in a summer season. Survey respondents also indicated that the number of fish caught from Lake Champlain that could be safely consumed each month was unacceptably low and the number of streams draining into the lake that were impaired by storm water was unacceptably high. If indicators that translate ecological conditions into social consequences are carefully selected, we believe the normative approach has considerable merit for defining acceptable levels of valued ecological system components.     

电工电子产品燃烧产物的腐蚀损坏效应

电工电子产品陷入火灾后所产生的腐蚀性燃烧产物,可能会对电路和电工电子元器件的性能造成不同程度的损坏,使设备出现故障。测量和评估燃烧产物的腐蚀损坏效应对于保证与安全有关的电工电子设备正常运行是十分必要的。     

A Microcosm Approach to the Detection of the Effects of Herbicide Spray Drift in Plant Communities

It is often difficult to measure and predict the impacts of toxic chemicals, such as herbicides, on natural communities. This is especially true under conditions of spray drift when the amount received by the organisms downwind from the sprayer may be at sub-lethal doses. Laboratory experiments are either artificial, or have not been generally carried out over long enough time periods, to be realistic. Field experiments are often difficult because of the high variability inherent in natural populations. Here an intermediate microcosm approach was used, where standardized artificial communities (eight dicotyledons with and without a grass) were tested. The artifical communities included species typical of British woodland margins, hedgerows and field margins; communities with a high conservation interest, yet potentially under threat from spray drift. The microcosms were placed downwind of a sprayer and exposed to one of the following herbicides: glyphosate, mecoprop and MCPA. This approach ensures that the communities were standardized at the start and have been exposed to realistic doses of herbicide. The experiments reported here were carried out for at least three years with exposures to herbicides repeated each year. The effects of differential herbicide exposure downwind of the sprayer were measured on species yield, flowering performance, seed production, seed viability and invasion by new species. Responses were extremely variable, but all species showed some effects in some years. Some patterns emerged. For example, one group of species appeared to be more successful near to the sprayer. This was particularly true of the grass when exposed to MCPA and mecoprop. The performance of most species was reduced under the sprayer, and there was a general recovery with increasing distance downwind. A few species showed increased performance in the intermediate downwind zone (2–4 m) and this may be due to a hormonal effect on growth processes, or an effect of reduced interference from other community members. Generally, there were few effects on seed production or seed viability. An important result was that most effects were confined within an 8 m zone, as there were few significant differences between plants exposed at 8 m and those untreated. Although damaging effects were found in the immediate downwind zone from the sprayer, the restriction of effects to 8 m suggests that a buffer zone of this size would be adequate to protect sensitive habitats from most deleterious impacts on community processes.     

修正的BP神经网络森林火灾成灾面积预测研究

以1997-2012年《中国林业统计年鉴》的全国森林火灾成灾面积为依据,应用BP神经网络模型对成灾面积进行了预测,对预测方法进行了检验.在此基础上,利用残差提出了修正的BP神经网络模型,并对预测方法进行了改进.研究结果表明,修正的BP神经网络预测精度高于BP神经网络,预测相对误差平均为7.2％,可应用于森林火灾成灾面积的预测.     

An Approach for Evaluating the Repeatability of Rapid Wetland Assessment Methods: The Effects of Training and Experience

We sampled 92 wetlands from four different basins in the United States to quantify observer repeatability in rapid wetland condition assessment using the Delaware Rapid Assessment Protocol (DERAP). In the Inland Bays basin of Delaware, 58 wetland sites were sampled by multiple observers with varying levels of experience (novice to expert) following a thorough training workshop. In the Nanticoke (Delaware/Maryland), Cuyahoga (Ohio), and John Day (Oregon) basins, 34 wetlands were sampled by two expert teams of observers with minimal protocol training. The variance in observer to observer scoring at each site was used to calculate pooled standard deviations (SD_pool), coefficients of variation, and signal-to-noise ratios for each survey. The results showed that the experience level of the observer had little impact on the repeatability of the final rapid assessment score. Training, however, had a large impact on observer to observer repeatability. The SD_pool in the Inland Bay survey with training (2.2 points out of a 0–30 score) was about half that observed in the other three basins where observers had minimal training (SD_pool = 4.2 points). Using the results from the survey with training, we would expect that two sites assessed by different, trained observers who obtain DERAP scores differing by more than 4 points are highly likely to differ in ecological condition, and that sites with scores that differ by 2 or fewer points are within variability that can be attributed to observer differences.     

The use of aggregate complaints data as an indicator of cumulative social impacts of mining: A case study from the Hunter valley,NSW, Australia

Generally speaking, there is a greater amount of quantitative data available to measure and model the cumulative environmental or economic impacts of mining than the social impacts. In part, this is because social impacts are often inherently more difficult to quantify, but historically there have also been fewer regulatory drivers for companies or state agencies to invest in collecting such data. Regulators in some jurisdictions are now starting to require resource companies to report on aspects of their social performance, but companies and regulators are still struggling to identify appropriate metrics, particularly in regards to cumulative impacts. This paper describes an innovative quantitative approach to tracking how communities experience and respond to increased mining activity, using data from the complaints registers maintained by mines located in the Upper Hunter Valley in New South Wales, Australia. In this study, complaints lodged with five separate mines adjacent to the township of Muswellbrook over several years were aggregated and trends analysed. The aggregated set showed that complaint frequency increased with the increase in mining activity but then decreased as individual complaints were addressed. However, when complaints from near-neighbours were removed, it emerged that the proportion of complaints that came from the town itself steadily increased over time. Further analysis indicated that this increase was closely associated with the amount of mine-disturbed land that could be seen from the town over time, as measured using a combination of remotely sensed data and a digital elevation model. This is persuasive evidence of a cumulative social impact that is more than just the sum of the local impacts of individual mines.     

Examining the Effects of Biodiversity on the Ability of Local Plans to Manage Ecological Systems

The protection of biological diversity (hereafter biodiversity) is considered one of the fundamental goals for the sustainable management of ecological systems. This paper examines how existing levels of biodiversity influence ecosystem capabilities at the local level. Specifically, it tests the effects of biodiversity and the degree of threat to biodiversity on the quality of local comprehensive plans in Florida as measured by the ability to manage ecosystems. Regression analysis indicates that high biodiversity does not stimulate planners to adopt higher quality plans. Instead, human disturbance or threats to existing levels of biodiversity are the most significant factors in driving ecosystem plan quality. Based on the results, the paper discusses implications for policy and suggests recommendations to improve proactive planning practices associated with managing ecological systems over the long term.     

Influence of Small Dams on Downstream Channel Characteristics in Pennsylvania and Maryland: Implications for the Long‐Term Geomorphic Effects of Dam Removal1

Abstract: We evaluate the effects of small dams (11 of 15 sites less than 4 m high) on downstream channels at 15 sites in Maryland and Pennsylvania by using a reach upstream of the reservoir at each site to represent the downstream reach before dam construction. A semi‐quantitative geomorphic characterization demonstrates that upstream reaches occupy similar geomorphic settings as downstream reaches. Survey data indicate that dams have had no measurable influence on the water surface slope, width, and the percentages of exposed bedrock or boulders on the streambed. The median grain diameter (D₅₀) is increased slightly by dam construction, but D₅₀ remains within the pebble size class. The percentage of sand and silt and clay on the bed averages about 35% before dam construction, but typically decreases to around 20% after dam construction. The presence of the dam has therefore only influenced the fraction of finer‐grained sediment on the bed, and has not caused other measurable changes in fluvial morphology. The absence of measurable geomorphic change from dam impacts is explicable given the extent of geologic control at these study sites. We speculate that potential changes that could have been induced by dam construction have been resisted by inerodible bedrock, relatively immobile boulders, well‐vegetated and cohesive banks, and low rates of bed material supply and transport. If the dams of our study are removed, we argue that long‐term changes (those that remain after a period of transient adjustment) will be limited to increases in the percentage of sand and silt and clay on the bed. Thus, dam removal in streams similar to those of our study area should not result in significant long‐term geomorphic changes.     

Sources and Sinks of Phosphorus for a Perturbed Stream and the Effects of Mineral Deposits1

Effler, Steven W., Anthony R. Prestigiacomo, David A. Matthews, and Feng Peng, 2012. Sources and Sinks of Phosphorus for a Perturbed Stream and the Effects of Mineral Deposits. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 321‐335. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00617.x Abstract: Patterns of concentrations and loading rates of multiple forms of phosphorus (P) are resolved and analyzed along Ninemile Creek, New York, a stream perturbed by a domestic waste discharge and residual effects of a closed industry. This analysis is based on biweekly monitoring of total, dissolved, and soluble reactive P (SRP) for 19 months at four sites that bracket each of these effects, and 15 years of biweekly measurements at the two sites that bound industrial deposits. The minerogenic particle populations of the stream and the surficial sediments along the reach with extensive CaCO₃ and clay mineral deposits are characterized with an individual particle analysis technique. Mass balance analyses depict: (1) increasing nonpoint inputs of particulate and dissolved organic P along the stream length; (2) input of P from a domestic waste facility, almost entirely in the form of SRP; and (3) a compensating downstream loss of SRP over the reach with the extensive industrial deposits of CaCO₃. The downstream sink process for SRP is attributed to sorption processes with minerogenic deposits. The domestic waste‐based source and the compensating industrial waste‐based sink are noteworthy fluxes relative to other prevailing loads received by downstream Onondaga Lake, for which a major rehabilitation program targeting cultural eutrophication is underway. The P source/sink conditions of this stream are considered in the context of this rehabilitation program.     

Designing Impact Assessments for Evaluating Ecological Effects of Agricultural Conservation Practices on Streams1

Abstract: Conservation practices are regularly implemented within agricultural watersheds throughout the United States without evaluating their ecological impacts. Impact assessments documenting how habitat and aquatic biota within streams respond to these practices are needed for evaluating the effects of conservation practices. Numerous sampling protocols have been developed for monitoring streams. However, protocols designed for monitoring studies are not appropriate for impact assessments. We developed guiding principles for designing impact assessments of ecological responses to conservation practices. The guiding principles are as follows: (1) develop the hypothesis first, (2) use replicated experimental designs having controls and treatments, (3) assess the habitat and biological characteristics with quantitative and repeatable sampling methods, (4) use multiple sampling techniques for collecting aquatic organisms, and (5) standardize sampling efforts for aquatic organisms. The guiding principles were applied in designing a study intended to evaluate the influence of herbaceous riparian buffers on channelized headwater streams in central Ohio. Our example highlights that the application of our recommendations will result in impact assessments that are hypothesis‐driven and incorporate quantitative methods for the measurement of abiotic and biotic attributes.     

程序化征收排污费的研究与实践

本文论述了征收排污费必须转变观念，在一些单位柜台收费报导的启发下，本文提出了征收排污费的征收程序，主要包括通知程序的处罚程序两大部分。将程序以法律文本形式固定后，通知各排污单位。实行收费程序化以后，对新增单位收费成功率达到９０％以上，取得了较好的效果。     

Effects of Eastern Hemlock Decline on Large Wood Loads in Streams of the Appalachian Mountains

Evans, Daniel M., C. Andrew Dolloff, W. Michael Aust, and Amy M. Villamagna, 2012. Effects of Eastern Hemlock Decline on Large Wood Loads in Streams of the Appalachian Mountains. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 266‐276. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00610.x Abstract: Eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis), a foundation species important to riparian forests of the Appalachian Mountains, is in decline due to the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA) (Adelges tsugae). The effect of this insect on large wood (LW) production and recruitment to streams is largely unknown. We measured LW load, riparian forest composition, and T. canadensis health in 47 streams from Maine to Alabama and developed a conceptual model that frames the expected forest stand and instream LW response to the disturbance caused by HWA. In stands with HWA, 24.3% of the overstory T. canadensis basal area was stressed and 7.5% was dead, whereas only 3.0% was stressed and 2.0% was dead in stands without HWA. Mean T. canadensis effective LW load was 0.20 m³/100 m² in streams with adjacent stands infested by HWA, almost three times higher than in streams flowing through uninfested stands (p = 0.048). Higher frequencies of LW were found at streams with HWA present and there was a positive association between the percent of dead T. canadensis and T. canadensis LW load (ρ = 0.4468; p = <0.0001). Greater total LW loads were associated with higher stream gradients, lesser bankfull widths, and streams at lower latitudes. Our research supports the hypothesis that HWA infestation of T. canadensis in riparian forest stands has increased LW loads in streams. This episodic disturbance to the riparian forest overstory may have lasting impacts on aquatic ecosystem structure and function.     

Effects of Military Training Activities on Shrub-steppe Raptors in Southwestern Idaho, USA

Buteo regalis ), northern harriers (Circus cyaneus), burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia), and short-eared owls (Asio flammeus) inside and outside a military training site in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area, southwestern Idaho. The Orchard Training Area is used primarily for armored vehicle training and artillery firing by the Idaho Army National Guard. Relative abundance of nesting pairs inside and outside the training site was not significantly different from 1991 to 1993 but was significantly higher on the training site in 1994 (P ≤ 0.03). Nesting success varied among years but was not significantly different inside and outside the training site (P > 0.26). In 1994, short-eared owl and burrowing owl nests were significantly closer to firing ranges used early in the spring before owls laid eggs than were random points (P < 0.001). In 1993, distances from occupied burrowing owl nests to firing ranges used early in the year were similar to those from random points to the same firing ranges (P = 0.16). Military activity contributed to some nesting failures from 1992 to 1994, but some pairs nested successfully near military activity.