Assessing global exposure to natural hazards: Progress and future trends

Global maps of natural hazard occurrence and risk are useful tools for policy makers and international development organizations. The ranking of countries or regions by relative exposure provides a metric for prioritizing strategies for natural hazard mitigation and risk management, and for planning for response and recovery. However, the calculations underlying global natural hazard risk mapping depend on the availability and quality of geophysical and socio-economic data, which are highly variable from region to region, and may impede the application of global rankings to regional decision making. This paper summarizes a recent synthesis of natural hazard occurrence, exposure and loss data—the World Bank's “Hotspots” project—and describes the advantages and difficulties in such an approach. Several suggestions for more highly resolved, regional and sub-national analyses are made.     

Learning from the rubble: the case of Christchurch,New Zealand,after the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes

Learning after a disaster is crucial in creating more resilient places. However, many societies are repeatedly overwhelmed by disasters. This can be because of missed opportunities to learn in post‐disaster settings or because of actions implemented that seem to be highly relevant to recovery in the short term, but potentially constrain aspirations in the longer term. This paper assesses learning processes among state and non‐state actors and the ways in which these are bridged and scaled up to wider improvements in governance. Aiming to enrich understanding of post‐disaster learning, it explores different actors’ response actions after the earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2010 and 2011. On the one hand, ‘learning by doing’ is occurring, yet, on the other hand, systemic learning is hindered by mismatches between top‐down steering and bottom‐up initiatives. The study concludes that better linking and synergising of learning processes among different levels is vital for enhancing resilience in post‐disaster societies.     

Building resilience to El Niño‐related drought: experiences in early warning and early action from Nicaragua and Ethiopia

Forecast‐based drought early warning/early action has been hampered by both inadequate decision‐making frameworks and a lack of appropriate funding mechanisms. Rural communities in Nicaragua and Ethiopia that have participated in resilience‐building interventions of varying durations demonstrate the value of community‐based actions informed by early warning, forecasts and drought management advice, both before and during the agricultural season. While drought affected all crops negatively, participants were better able to mitigate impacts, were more organised in accessing relief and recovered more effectively. These results are consistent with other research on the cost/benefit of anticipatory actions, use of climate services and appropriate drought management advice. They also confirm the importance of embedding short‐term early action in long‐term resilience‐building. Despite this, formal systems, national and local, remain essentially unimplemented. Systems being developed at global level now need to be operationalised and translated into effective local drought management standard operating procedures for the most vulnerable.     

Trust,but verify: social media models for disaster management

A lack of trust in the information exchanged via social media may significantly hinder decisionmaking by community members and emergency services during disasters. The need for timely information at such times, though, challenges traditional ways of establishing trust. This paper, building on a multi‐year research project that combined social media data analysis and participant observation within an emergency management organisation and in‐depth engagement with stakeholders across the sector, pinpoints and examines assumptions governing trust and trusting relationships in social media disaster management. It assesses three models for using social media in disaster management—information gathering, quasi‐journalistic verification, and crowdsourcing—in relation to the guardianship of trust to highlight the verification process for content and source and to identify the role of power and responsibilities. The conclusions contain important implications for emergency management organisations seeking to enhance their mechanisms for incorporating user‐generated information from social media sources in their disaster response efforts.     

Building resilience to climate risks through social protection: from individualised models to systemic transformation

This article analyses the role of social protection programmes in contributing to people's resilience to climate risks. Drawing from desk‐based and empirical studies in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, it finds that social transfers make a strong contribution to the capacity of individuals and households to absorb the negative impacts of climate‐related shocks and stresses. They do so through the provision of reliable, national social safety net systems—even when these are not specifically designed to address climate risks. Social protection can also increase the anticipatory capacity of national disaster response systems through scalability mechanisms, or pre‐emptively through linkages to early action and early warning mechanisms. Critical knowledge gaps remain in terms of programmes’ contributions to the adaptive capacity required for long‐term resilience. The findings offer insights beyond social protection on the importance of robust, national administrative systems as a key foundation to support people's resilience to climate risks.     

Insuring against earthquakes: simulating the cost‐effectiveness of disaster preparedness

Ex‐ante measures to improve risk preparedness for natural disasters are generally considered to be more effective than ex‐post measures. Nevertheless, most resources are allocated after an event in geographical areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters. This paper analyses the cost‐effectiveness of ex‐ante adaptation measures in the wake of earthquakes and provides an assessment of the future role of private and public agencies in disaster risk management. The study uses a simulation model approach to evaluate consumption losses after earthquakes under different scenarios of intervention. Particular attention is given to the role of activity diversification measures in enhancing disaster preparedness and the contributions of (targeted) microcredit and education programmes for reconstruction following a disaster. Whereas the former measures are far more cost‐effective, missing markets and perverse incentives tend to make ex‐post measures a preferred option, thus occasioning underinvestment in ex‐ante adaptation initiatives.     

Characterizing the urban heat island in current and future climates in New Jersey

Climate change caused by increased anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases is a long-term climate hazard with the potential to alter the intensity, temporal pattern, and spatial extent of the urban heat island (UHI) in metropolitan regions. Particular meteorological conditions—including high temperature, low cloud cover, and low average wind speed—tend to intensify the heat island effect. Analyses of existing archived climate data for the vicinities of Newark and Camden, New Jersey indicate urban to suburban/rural temperature differences over the previous half-century. Surface temperatures derived from a Landsat thermal image for each site were also analyzed for spatial patterns of heat islands. Potential interactions between the UHI effect and projected changes in temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover are then examined under a range of climate change scenarios, encompassing different greenhouse gas emissions trajectories. The scenarios include those utilized in the Metropolitan East Coast Regional Assessment of Climate Variability and Change and the A2 and B2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).

The UHI effect was detected in Newark and Camden in both satellite surface-temperature and meteorological station airtemperature records. The average difference in urban—nonurban minimum temperatures was 3.0 °C for the Newark area and 1.5 °C for Camden. Extrapolation of current trends and the selected global climate models (GCMs) project that temperatures in the case study areas will continue to warm in the current century, as they have over the past half-century. An initial analysis of global climate scenarios shows that wind speed may decline, and that cloud cover may increase in the coming decades. These generally small countervailing tendencies suggest that urban—nonurban temperature differences may be maintained under climate change.

Overall warmer conditions throughout the year may extend the spatial and temporal dimensions of the urban-suburban heat complex. The incidence of heat-related morbidity and mortality are likely to increase with interactions between the increased frequency and duration of heat waves and the UHI effect. Camden and Newark will likely be subjected to higher temperatures, and areas experiencing UHI-like conditions and temperature extremes will expand. Thus, urban heat island-related hazard potential is likely to increase in a warmer climate.     

Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: a macro framework

The measurement of vulnerability—defined here as the asymmetric response of disaster occurrences to hazardous events—signifies a key step towards effective disaster risk reduction and the promotion of a culture of disaster resilience. One of the reasons for not being able to do the same in a wider context is related to conceptual, definitional, and operational issues. This paper presents an operationally feasible framework for conducting this task and measures revealed macro vulnerability as a function of disaster risk and hazard probability. The probabilities of hazard and its perceived disaster risk were obtained from past data and from probability distributions. In this paper, the corresponding analytical framework is constructed using the case study of floods in Assam, India. The proposed indicator will help policymakers to draw on available macro‐level data to identify the regions that are vulnerable to disasters, where micro‐level disaster vulnerability assessments could be performed in greater detail.     

Disaster risk reduction in developing countries: costs, benefits and institutions

Some 60,000 people worldwide die annually in natural disasters, mostly due to the collapse of buildings in earthquakes, and primarily in the developing world. This is despite the fact that engineering solutions exist that can eliminate almost completely the risk of such deaths. Why is this? The solutions are expensive and technically demanding, so their cost–benefit ratio often is unfavourable as compared to other interventions. Nonetheless, there are various public disaster risk reduction interventions that are highly cost‐effective. That such interventions frequently remain unimplemented or ineffectively executed points to a role for issues of political economy. Building regulations in developing countries appear to have limited impact in many cases, perhaps because of inadequate capacity and corruption. Public construction often is of low quality, perhaps for similar reasons. This suggests the need for approaches that emphasise simple and limited disaster risk regulation covering only the most at‐risk structures—and that, preferably, non‐experts can monitor—as well as numerous transparency and oversight mechanisms for public construction projects.     

Assessing the impact of microfinance programming on children: an evaluation from post‐tsunami Aceh

This paper presents an evaluation of the long‐term impact of microfinance programmes on Acehnese children during the post‐tsunami recovery. The study, conducted from June to August 2010, examined the impact of microfinance programming six years after the tsunami. The sample consisted of 185 microfinance participants, with a comparison group of 192 individuals who did not participate in microfinance programmes. All respondents were parents, interviewed through a structured survey. The study used four child protection indicators—diet, health, childcare and education—in contrast to traditional repayment rate indicators. The primary results were insignificant with respect to all four child protection indicators, suggesting that, with respect to these indicators, there was no long‐term difference between the impact of microfinance on beneficiaries' children and non‐beneficiaries' children. These findings signify a need for microfinance actors to move beyond traditional indicators of economic success to evaluate the social changes microfinance programmes are presumed to effect.     

From silence to resilience: prospects and limitations for incorporating non-expert knowledge into hazard management

Despite efforts to include residents in hazard management, their contributions are often undervalued because they are seen as passive recipients of intervention rather than active participants in the production of knowledge, particularly when they lack technical expertise. However, using multiple perspectives and experiences can improve hazard management strategies and create safer communities. This paper examines a Colombian landslide management program to highlight the prospects and limitations of incorporating non-expert knowledge into hazard management. The Guardianas de la Ladera (Guardians of the Slope) in Manizales, Colombia is a program in which female heads of household are hired to maintain landslide-prevention infrastructure and communicate landslide risk to the community. While the highly regarded program is perceived as having reduced the frequency of landslides and associated damages, the hierarchical institutional structure inhibits bottom-up communication, including information that could improve long-term vulnerability reduction. We argue that regardless of the location, scale, or specific hazard being addressed, incorporating non-expert knowledge into hazard management potentially illuminates sources of vulnerability not recognized by technical or development experts.     

Fire risk reduction through a community‐based risk assessment: reflections from Makola Market,Accra, Ghana

This paper explores the level of vulnerability to the hazard of fire that exists in Makola Market in Accra, Ghana, and assesses how this threat can be reduced through a community‐based risk assessment. It examines the perceptions of both market‐stall occupants and primary stakeholders regarding the hazard of fire, and analyses the availability of local assets (coping strategies) with which to address the challenge. Through an evaluation of past instances of fire, as well as in‐depth key stakeholder interviews, field visits, and observations, the study produces a detailed hazard map of the market. It goes on to recommend that policymakers consider short‐to‐long‐term interventions to reduce the degree of risk. By foregrounding the essence of holistic and integrated planning, the paper calls for the incorporation of disaster mitigation measures in the overall urban planning process and for the strict enforcement of relevant building and fire safety codes by responsible public agencies.     

New tools for emergency managers: an assessment of obstacles to use and implementation

This paper focuses on the role of the formal response community's use of social media and crowdsourcing for emergency managers (EMs) in disaster planning, response and recovery in the United States. In‐depth qualitative interviews with EMs on the Eastern seaboard at the local, state and federal level demonstrate that emergency management tools are in a state of transition—from formal, internally regulated tools for crisis response to an incorporation of new social media and crowdsourcing tools. The first set of findings provides insight into why many EMs are not using social media, and describes their concerns that result in fear, uncertainty and doubt. Second, this research demonstrates how internal functioning and staffing issues within these agencies present challenges. This research seeks to examine the dynamics of this transition and offer lessons for how to improve its outcomes—critical to millions of people across the United States.     

Urbanisation and flood vulnerability in the peri-urban interface of Mexico City

Chronic flooding in the Chalco valley, state of Mexico, Mexico, is the outcome of past and present socio‐environmental changes which have taken place in Mexico City's south‐eastern peri‐urban interface. This flooding is the result of a complex interaction between urbanisation in an ex‐lacustrine area, permanent ecological deterioration and ground subsidence, poor sanitation and inadequate policy responses. Far from solving the flooding problem, short‐term policy responses have created increasingly unsafe conditions for current residents. A socio‐historical analysis of disasters reveals the importance of taking into consideration particular social actors and institutions in hazard generation and flood vulnerability over time. This paper analyses three aspects of this flooding: first, the importance of approaching floods from a socio‐historical perspective; second, the relation between urbanisation, former policies and flood risk generation; and third, current policy responses to and the failure in the risk management of La Compañía Canal.     

Understanding and enhancing future infrastructure resiliency: a socio‐ecological approach

The resilience of any system, human or natural, centres on its capacity to adapt its structure, but not necessarily its function, to a new configuration in response to long‐term socio‐ecological change. In the long term, therefore, enhancing resilience involves more than simply improving a system's ability to resist an immediate threat or to recover to a stable past state. However, despite the prevalence of adaptive notions of resilience in academic discourse, it is apparent that infrastructure planners and policies largely continue to struggle to comprehend longer‐term system adaptation in their understanding of resilience. Instead, a short‐term, stable system (STSS) perspective on resilience is prevalent. This paper seeks to identify and problematise this perspective, presenting research based on the development of a heuristic ‘scenario–episode’ tool to address, and challenge, it in the context of United Kingdom infrastructure resilience. The aim is to help resilience practitioners to understand better the capacities of future infrastructure systems to respond to natural, malicious threats.     

Post‐crisis analysis of an ineffective tsunami alert: the 2010 earthquake in Maule,Chile

Considering its huge magnitude and its location in a densely populated area of Chile, the Maule seism of 27 February 2010 generated a low amount of victims. However, post‐seismic tsunamis were particularly devastating on that day; surprisingly, no full alert was launched, not at the national, regional or local level. This earthquake and associated tsunamis are of interest in the context of natural hazards management as well as crisis management planning. Instead of focusing exclusively on the event itself, this article places emphasis on the process, systems and long‐term approach that led the tsunami alert mechanism to be ineffectual. Notably, this perspective reveals interrelated forerunner signs of vulnerability.     

Reconciling reintegration: the complexity of economic and social reintegration of ex‐combatants in Burundi

The extent to which disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) programmes initiated by state or multilateral agencies can realise the reintegration of ex‐combatants remains debated. While some consider that DDR should have the ambition to result in long‐term reintegration, others argue that DDR should focus on short‐term goals. This paper explores experiences with the reintegration of ex‐combatants in Burundi. It shows the interconnectedness of economic and social reintegration processes, and demonstrates that the reintegration of ex‐combatants cannot be seen in isolation from the wider recovery and development context in which DDR is taking place. Moreover, the case demonstrates that reconciliation and social reintegration are deeply interconnected, to the extent that social reintegration may fail if reconciliation is not taken into account. Rather than a debate between long‐ and short‐term goals, the focus should therefore be on increasing the understanding of reintegration processes and finding ways in which programmes can contribute to those.     

Long‐term effects of Hurricane Katrina on the psychological well‐being of evacuees

Hurricane Katrina of August 2005 forced more than one million people to evacuate the Gulf Coast of the United States. This study examines the psychological health and well‐being of a subset of evacuees to determine the prevalence of ongoing mental health problems. Interviews were conducted with 101 adults who evacuated to Louisville, Kentucky, and were living in the state at the one‐year anniversary of the event or had recently returned to the Gulf Coast. The psychological health and well‐being of respondents was evaluated using several well‐validated measures. More than one‐half met the criteria for post‐traumatic stress disorder and a majority were suffering from depression and anxiety. The mean quality of life score was 0.6 on a scale from 0–1, suggesting that adaptation and return to pre‐hurricane well‐being had not occurred 12 months after the storm. The potential for long‐term psychological damage exists in this sample of Hurricane Katrina evacuees. Results suggest other evacuees may also be at heightened risk.     

The impact of a natural disaster on altruistic behaviour and crime

Institutional altruism in the form of a public‐sector intervention and support for victims and social altruism generated by mutual aid and solidarity among citizens constitute a coming together in a crisis. This coming together and mutual support precipitate a decrease in crime rates during such an event. This paper presents an analysis of daily fluctuations in crime during the prolonged ice storms in Quebec, Canada, in January 1998 that provoked an electrical blackout. Of particular interest are the principal crisis‐related influences on daily crime patterns. A first series of analyses examines the impact of altruistic public‐sector mobilisation on crime. A significant decline in property crime rates was noticed when cheques were distributed to crisis victims in financial need in Montérégie, and hence they were attributable to public intervention (institutional altruism). Moreover, the rate of social altruism (financial donations), which was more substantial in adjoining rather than distant regions, was inversely proportional to crime rates.     

Local government,political decentralisation and resilience to natural hazard-associated disasters

Natural hazards affect development and can cause significant and long-term suffering for those affected. Research has shown that sustained long-term disaster preparedness combined with appropriate response and recovery are needed to deliver effective risk reductions. However, as the newly agreed Sendai framework recognises, this knowledge has not been translated into action. This research aims to contribute to our understanding of how to deliver longer term and sustained risk reduction by evaluating the role of political decentralisation in disaster outcomes. Specifically, we investigate whether countries which devolve power to the local level experience reduced numbers of people affected by storms and earthquakes, and have lower economic damage. Using regression analysis and cross-country data from 1950 to 2006, we find that, in relation to both storms and earthquakes, greater transfers of political power to subnational tiers of government reduce hazard impacts on the population. The downside is that more politically decentralised countries, which are usually wealthier countries, can increase the direct economic losses associated with a natural hazard impact after the storm or earthquake than those which are more centralised. However, overall, it seems advantageous to give subnational governments more authority and autonomy in storm and earthquake risk planning.