Digital disparities and vulnerability: mobile phone use,information behaviour,and disaster preparedness in Southeast Asia

This paper proposes an ecological view to investigate how disparities in mobile technology use reflect vulnerabilities in communities vis‐à‐vis disaster preparedness. Data (n=1,603) were collected through a multi‐country survey conducted equally in rural and urban areas of Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines, and Vietnam, where mobile technology has become a dominant and ubiquitous communication and information medium. The findings show that smartphone users' routinised use of mobile technology and their risk perception are significantly associated with disaster preparedness behaviour indirectly through disaster‐related information sharing. In addition to disaster‐specific social support, smartphone users' disaster‐related information repertoires are another strong influencing factor. In contrast, non‐smartphone users are likely to rely solely on receipt of disaster‐specific social support as the motivator of disaster preparedness. The results also reveal demographic and rural–urban differences in disaster information behaviour and preparedness. Given the increasing shift from basic mobile phone models to smartphones, the theoretical and policy‐oriented implications of digital disparities and vulnerability are discussed.     

Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: a macro framework

The measurement of vulnerability—defined here as the asymmetric response of disaster occurrences to hazardous events—signifies a key step towards effective disaster risk reduction and the promotion of a culture of disaster resilience. One of the reasons for not being able to do the same in a wider context is related to conceptual, definitional, and operational issues. This paper presents an operationally feasible framework for conducting this task and measures revealed macro vulnerability as a function of disaster risk and hazard probability. The probabilities of hazard and its perceived disaster risk were obtained from past data and from probability distributions. In this paper, the corresponding analytical framework is constructed using the case study of floods in Assam, India. The proposed indicator will help policymakers to draw on available macro‐level data to identify the regions that are vulnerable to disasters, where micro‐level disaster vulnerability assessments could be performed in greater detail.     

How prepared is prepared enough?

Decisions about disaster preparedness are rarely informed by cost‐benefit analyses. This paper presents an economic model to address the thorny question, ‘how prepared is prepared enough?’ Difficulties related to the use of cost‐benefit analysis in the field of disaster management concern the tension between the large number of high‐probability events that can be handled by a single emergency response unit and the small number of low‐probability events that must be handled by a large number of them. A further special feature of disaster management concerns the opportunity for cooperation between different emergency response units. To account for these issues, we introduce a portfolio approach. Our analysis shows that it would be useful to define disaster preparedness not in terms of capacities, but in terms of the frequency with which response capacity is expected to fall short.     

Arts as a vehicle for community building and post‐disaster development

Use of the arts in international aid is common in an ad hoc form, but it has not been systematically theorised or evaluated. The arts have the potential to be a culturally contextualised and sustainable intervention for adults and children in the aftermath of war or disaster. On the micro level, the arts are a method to enable the retrieval and reprocessing of traumatic memories that are often encoded in images rather than in words. On a macro level, they can help to reconstruct a group narrative of a disaster as well as mobilise people back into control of their lives. This paper researches a long‐term project using arts in Sri Lanka following the civil war and tsunami. A central finding is the need to understand arts within their cultural context, and their usefulness in strengthening the voices and problem‐solving capacities of the victims of the disaster.     

Building resilience to climate risks through social protection: from individualised models to systemic transformation

This article analyses the role of social protection programmes in contributing to people's resilience to climate risks. Drawing from desk‐based and empirical studies in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, it finds that social transfers make a strong contribution to the capacity of individuals and households to absorb the negative impacts of climate‐related shocks and stresses. They do so through the provision of reliable, national social safety net systems—even when these are not specifically designed to address climate risks. Social protection can also increase the anticipatory capacity of national disaster response systems through scalability mechanisms, or pre‐emptively through linkages to early action and early warning mechanisms. Critical knowledge gaps remain in terms of programmes’ contributions to the adaptive capacity required for long‐term resilience. The findings offer insights beyond social protection on the importance of robust, national administrative systems as a key foundation to support people's resilience to climate risks.     

企业停减产损失预测和评估模式

本文是文[1]的续篇。在文[1]中,作者对灾害经济损失评估的理论和方法做了初步的探讨．本文则着重对灾害间接经济损失中的企业停减产损失的预测和评估问题进行了探讨,建立了相应的预测和评估模式．所建立的模式既可用于灾前对企业停减产损失进行预测,也可用于灾后对其进行评估．     

Disaster journalism: fostering citizen and community disaster mitigation,preparedness, response,recovery, and resilience across the disaster cycle

Natural and human‐caused disasters pose a significant risk to the health and well‐being of people. Journalists and news organisations can fulfil multiple roles related to disasters, ranging from providing warnings, assessing disaster mitigation and preparedness, and reporting on what occurs, to aiding long‐term recovery and fostering disaster resilience. This paper considers these possible functions of disaster journalism and draws on semi‐structured interviews with 24 journalists in the United States to understand better their approach to the discipline. A thematic analysis was employed, which resulted in the identification of five main themes and accompanying subthemes: (i) examining disaster mitigation and preparedness; (ii) facilitating recovery; (iii) self‐care and care of journalists; (iv) continued spread of social media; and (v) disaster journalism ethics. The paper concludes that disaster journalism done poorly can result in harm, but done well, it can be an essential instrument with respect to public disaster planning, management, response, and recovery.     

The continued operation of businesses after an earthquake: a case study from Lushan County,China

This study performed a comparative analysis of changes in the operating status of initial surviving disaster‐stricken businesses and non‐disaster‐stricken businesses in Lushan County, China, after a devastating earthquake on 20 April 2013. It used a logistic regression model to explore the key factors associated with ‘post‐disaster continued business operation’ in the long term. Field data were collected from 1,078 businesses and questionnaire data from 263 small businesses between 2013 and 2017. The results indicate that a higher proportion of initial surviving disaster‐stricken businesses than non‐disaster‐stricken businesses managed to remain operational in each observation period. The continued operation of disaster‐stricken businesses after the earthquake was positively associated with the owner's age, previous disaster experience, pre‐disaster financial conditions, closure duration, and borrowing money from family or friends. A negative association was found with the size of the business. The findings serve as a vital reference for strategies to promote post‐disaster continued business operation.     

The role of coalitions in disaster policymaking

Disasters have the potential to act as focusing events, which can increase the amount of attention on disaster‐related problems and encourage policy action. Understanding of the political characteristics of disaster policymaking is underdeveloped, yet it is known that these features may be dissimilar to those of non‐disaster policy areas, especially concerning the coalitions of policy actors engaged in the disaster policy process. Coalitions in the realm of disaster policy processes may be less likely to form, may look very different, and may have different goals than those in non‐disaster domains. Knowledge of the emergence, composition, and purpose of coalitions in disaster policy is lacking. This paper draws on prior theory and case observations to define and describe the characteristics of a disaster policy subsystem and to build a typology of coalitions that may appear within such a subsystem, providing a foundation upon which scholars can work to study coalition dynamics in disaster policy subsystems.     

重大自然灾害后心理干预行为教育对策

重大灾害对社会经济和生命财产安全都存在严重的影响,而灾区人们的心理变化和行为反应,与社会整体的抗灾救灾效果都具有较大的关联性。该文探讨重大灾害后心理干预行为教育对策,针对灾害对灾区人们产生的心理应激障碍问题,采用叙事疗法按照构建契约、故事重建、制图、探险、结束和复查五步骤,将灾区受灾人群从不良的生活模式中唤醒,并通过体育干预从主体、个体、群体三个角度指引灾区人群,建立正确、积极的人生价值观与社会价值观,采用阅读疗法优化灾区人群的认知结构。     

地震灾害间接经济损失估计

在分析了企业震后经济发展模式基础上,认为地震灾害间接经济损失由企业停减产短期影响损失、企业停减产长期影响损失、企业间产业关联损失及投资溢价损失四部分构成,提出了相应的估算方法,并以山东某一城市为例进行了地震灾害间接经济损失估计．     

Models for Prediction and Assessment of Losses of Production Suspending and Cutting in Enterprises

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Disaster risk,social vulnerability,and economic development

This paper examines the extent to which economic development decreases a country's risk of experiencing climate‐related disasters as well as the societal impacts of those events. The paper proceeds from the underlying assumption that disasters are not inherently natural, but arise from the intersection of naturally‐occurring hazards within fragile environments. It uses data from the International Disaster Database (EM‐DAT), 1 representing country‐year‐level observations over the period 1980–2007. The study finds that low‐income countries are significantly more at risk of climate‐related disasters, even after controlling for exposure to climate hazards and other factors that may confound disaster reporting. Following the occurrence of a disaster, higher income generally diminishes a country's social vulnerability to such happenings, resulting in lower levels of mortality and morbidity. This implies that continued economic development may be a powerful tool for lessening social vulnerability to climate change.     

Learning from the rubble: the case of Christchurch,New Zealand,after the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes

Learning after a disaster is crucial in creating more resilient places. However, many societies are repeatedly overwhelmed by disasters. This can be because of missed opportunities to learn in post‐disaster settings or because of actions implemented that seem to be highly relevant to recovery in the short term, but potentially constrain aspirations in the longer term. This paper assesses learning processes among state and non‐state actors and the ways in which these are bridged and scaled up to wider improvements in governance. Aiming to enrich understanding of post‐disaster learning, it explores different actors’ response actions after the earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2010 and 2011. On the one hand, ‘learning by doing’ is occurring, yet, on the other hand, systemic learning is hindered by mismatches between top‐down steering and bottom‐up initiatives. The study concludes that better linking and synergising of learning processes among different levels is vital for enhancing resilience in post‐disaster societies.     

A dynamic model for costing disaster mitigation policies

The optimal level of investment in mitigation strategies is usually difficult to ascertain in the context of disaster planning. This research develops a model to provide such direction by relying on cost of quality literature. This paper begins by introducing a static approach inspired by Joseph M. Juran's cost of quality management model (Juran, 1951) to demonstrate the non‐linear trade‐offs in disaster management expenditure. Next it presents a dynamic model that includes the impact of dynamic interactions of the changing level of risk, the cost of living, and the learning/investments that may alter over time. It illustrates that there is an optimal point that minimises the total cost of disaster management, and that this optimal point moves as governments learn from experience or as states get richer. It is hoped that the propositions contained herein will help policymakers to plan, evaluate, and justify voluntary disaster mitigation expenditures.     

Displacement as a predictor of functional impairment in tsunami‐exposed children

Thirty months after the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, thousands of families in Aceh Province, Indonesia, remained in temporary barracks while sanitation conditions and non‐governmental organisation support deteriorated. This study sought to determine the factors associated with functional impairment in a sample of 138 displaced and non‐displaced Acehnese children. Using multivariate linear regression models, it was found that displacement distance was a consistent predictor of impairment using the Brief Impairment Scale. Exposure to tsunami‐related trauma markers was not significantly linked with impairment in the model. Paternal employment was a consistent protective factor for child functioning. These findings suggest that post‐disaster displacement and the subsequent familial economic disruption are significant predictors of impaired functioning in children's daily activities. Post‐disaster interventions should consider the disruption of familiar environments for families and children when relocating vulnerable populations to avoid deleterious impacts on children's functioning.     

Barriers or enablers? Chiefs,elite capture,disasters, and resettlement in rural Malawi

Chiefs are at the centre of household and community development efforts in most low‐income countries around the world. Yet, researchers and scholars have paid limited attention to the institution of chieftaincy and to understanding its role in the management of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. This paper draws on a micro ethnographic evaluation conducted in two predominantly rural districts of Malawi in southeast Africa to assess two different manifestations of elite control. In the first case, a resettlement programme was implemented where chiefs were co‐opted and took the lead. In the second case, a food insecurity response programme was designed to exclude chiefs. The study finds that neither co‐opting nor countering chiefs prevents elite capture. Rather, the majority of chiefs oscillate between malevolent and benevolent capture. The findings require that states focus on the cultural and political dimensions of rural life when designing climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction programmes.     

From disaster to development: a systematic review of community‐driven humanitarian logistics

A plethora of untapped resources exist within disaster‐affected communities that can be used to address relief and development concerns. A systematic review of the literature relating to community participation in humanitarian logistics activities revealed that communities are able to form ad hoc networks that have the ability to meet a wide range of disaster management needs. These structures, characterised as Collaborative Aid Networks (CANs), have demonstrated efficient logistical capabilities exclusive of humanitarian organisations. This study proposes that CANs, as a result of their unique characteristics, present alternatives to established humanitarian approaches to logistics, while also mitigating the challenges commonly faced by traditional humanitarian organisations. Furthermore, CANs offer a more holistic, long‐term approach to disaster management, owing to their impact on development through their involvement in humanitarian logistics. This research provides the foundation for further theoretical analysis of effective and efficient disaster management, and details opportunities for policy and practice.     

Social capital's role in recovery: evidence from communities affected by the 2010 Pakistan floods

Pakistan suffered large‐scale flooding in summer 2010 that caused damage amounting to approximately USD 43 billion, claimed the lives of at least 1,700 people, and negatively affected some 20 million others. Observers have debated the degree to which social capital plays a role in recovery after a catastrophe of this magnitude. Using new survey data on 450 residents impacted by the disaster, this study found that, controlling for various confounding factors, the social capital levels of victims serve as robust correlates of life recovery. Other important variables connected with recovery include education and income, family size, occupation, material damage suffered, stability of home, and trauma experience. The findings point to a number of relevant policy recommendations, most notably that during and following major shocks, disaster managers should work to keep the social networks of victims intact so that they can benefit from interaction with family, friends, and neighbours.     

Urban disaster recovery: a measurement framework and its application to the 1995 Kobe earthquake

This paper provides a framework for assessing empirical patterns of urban disaster recovery through the use of statistical indicators. Such a framework is needed to develop systematic knowledge on how cities recover from disasters. The proposed framework addresses such issues as defining recovery, filtering out exogenous influences unrelated to the disaster, and making comparisons across disparate areas or events. It is applied to document how Kobe City, Japan, recovered from the catastrophic 1995 earthquake. Findings indicate that while aggregate population regained pre‐disaster levels in ten years, population had shifted away from the older urban core. Economic recovery was characterised by a three to four year temporary boost in reconstruction activities, followed by settlement at a level some ten per cent below pre‐disaster levels. Other long‐term effects included substantial losses of port activity and sectoral shifts toward services and large businesses. These patterns of change and disparity generally accelerated pre‐disaster trends.