How prepared is prepared enough?

Decisions about disaster preparedness are rarely informed by cost‐benefit analyses. This paper presents an economic model to address the thorny question, ‘how prepared is prepared enough?’ Difficulties related to the use of cost‐benefit analysis in the field of disaster management concern the tension between the large number of high‐probability events that can be handled by a single emergency response unit and the small number of low‐probability events that must be handled by a large number of them. A further special feature of disaster management concerns the opportunity for cooperation between different emergency response units. To account for these issues, we introduce a portfolio approach. Our analysis shows that it would be useful to define disaster preparedness not in terms of capacities, but in terms of the frequency with which response capacity is expected to fall short.     

突发性地震灾害危机的预警和应急管理机制

借鉴SARS事件的经验教训,探讨了如何加快构建突发性地震灾害危机的预测预警、应急处理、信息发布和宣传教育等四个方面的管理机制,并提出了建立地震灾害预警等级及其相应的应急预案和信息发布措施的新思维.     

International NGOs and the role of network centrality in humanitarian aid operations: a case study of coordination during the 2000 Mozambique floods

In February 2000, Mozambique suffered its worst flooding in almost 50 years: 699 people died and hundreds of thousands were displaced. Over 49 countries and 30 international non-governmental organisations provided humanitarian assistance. Coordination of disaster assistance is critical for effective humanitarian aid operations, but limited attention has been directed toward evaluating the system-wide structure of inter-organisational coordination during humanitarian operations. Network analysis methods were used to examine the structure of inter-organisational relations among 65 non-governmental organisations (NGOs) involved in the flood operations in Mozambique. Centrality scores were used to estimate NGO-specific potential for aid coordination and tested against NGO beneficiary numbers. The average number of relief- and recovery-period beneficiaries was significantly greater for NGOs with high relative to low centrality scores (p < 0.05). This report addresses the significance of these findings in the context of the Mozambican 2000 floods and the type of data required to evaluate system-wide coordination.     

‘Are you prepared?’ Representations and management of floods in Lomanikoro,Rewa (Fiji)

The islands of Fiji, in the Western Pacific, are exposed to a wide range of natural hazards. Tropical storms and associated floods are recurring natural phenomena, but it has been regularly alleged that Fijians lack preparation, over‐rely on state assistance in post‐disaster situations or engage in risky behaviours that aggravate the negative impact of floods. Risk reduction strategies, which are now implemented by government authorities and international organisations, heavily promote the principle of ‘community preparedness’. Both community awareness programmes and capacity‐building programmes are conducted throughout the country in the most vulnerable communities. This paper analyses how the inhabitants of Lomanikoro village, in the low areas of the Rewa Delta, perceive and manage existing flood risks. It examines social and cultural factors that contribute to shape risk response locally—in particular, why villagers may be reluctant to adopt some recommended preparedness measures and resettle in higher, safer zones.     

重庆市的洪涝灾害管理

洪涝灾害是重庆市主要自然灾害之一,每年带来巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡,严重制约着重庆市社会、经济的可持续发展.本文在大量研究的基础上,分析了重庆市洪涝灾害的特点,总结了历年来的洪涝灾害及造成的损失,最后针对洪涝灾害的特点提出建立重庆市洪涝灾害管理系统,并对该系统作了详细分析.     

上海社区灾害和灾害管理中存在的问题

首先分析了社区中比较重要和常见的几种自然灾害和部分人为事故及其成因，并对社区灾害特点作了说明，然后对上海市社区灾害管理中存在的问题进行了阐述，并指出了当前迫切需要解决的问题。     

The functions of social service workers at a time of war against a civilian population

This article identifies the nature of functions that social service workers employed by municipal organisations have to perform during a community disaster and subsequent reorganisation at a time of war. The article also explores to what extent the functions of workers change as a result of the transition from a peacetime routine to a war situation. Using focus groups the study assesses the knowledge of social service workers and ordinary citizens who had direct experience of the second Lebanese war in Israel (2006). Eight major functions needed at a time of disaster are distinguished among various employees. The article discusses the significance of these functions, and the need to make changes in the network of functions at a time of disaster.