清洁发展机制(CDM)实践及理论研究进展

清洁发展机制(CDM)是《京都议定书》(KP)中规定的发达国家与发展中国家之间的温室气体减排合作方式。随着2005年2月26日KP的生效,CDM实施活动在全球范围内开始全面展开。中国被公认为是温室气体减排潜力最大的国家,具有广阔的开展CDM合作的前景。为了能配合国内CDM的实践活动,本文在大量文献及重要文件研究基础上,总结了CDM诞生10年来的实践及理论发展情况,并分析了CDM今后的发展趋势。     

清洁发展机制对我国节能减排的作用

清洁发展机制（CDM）是《京都议定书》发达国家和发展中国家就减排温室气体进行交易的合作机制。我国“十一五”规划《纲要》提出了节能减排的目标,而我国还是一个发展中国家,要实现节能减排面临很多的困难。CDM项目大部分是与提高能效和开发利用新能源直接有关,因此,CDM能为此提供一定的推动力,能够促进我国的节能减排。文章分析了当前我国节能减排面临的困难,探讨了CDM在我国节能减排所起的作用,提出我国对积极开发CDM项目应采取的相应对策。     

气候变化与实施清洁发展机制的展望

本文第一部分介绍了《气候变化框架公约》的达成与主要内容，以及在柏林、日内瓦、京都与布宜诺斯艾利斯先后召开的４ 次缔约方会议的结果； 第二部分介绍了清洁发展机制（ＣＤＭ） 同《京都议定书》的其他灵活机制的异同，以及ＣＤＭ 的特点、方法学与技术问题； 第三部分分析了ＣＤＭ 的前景、影响其成功实施的因素、它可能提供的潜在机遇以及实施中的需求与供给；最后就ＣＤＭ 的实施作了展望。     

Reside0ntial solar water heating as a potential Clean Development Mechanism project: A South African case study

A community-based Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project – asolar water heating project in a low-income community in South Africa –is analysed to illustrate the methodological and policy challenges that faceimplementation of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change. We evaluate four baseline options, andthree potential CDM interventions. The emissions reductions range from –670 to +5 929 Mg CO₂ per year, with all option but oneshowing positive emission reductions. Using metered solar water heatingwith liquefied petroleum gas back-up as the CDM intervention, and electricstorage geysers as the baseline, the annual emissions reductions are 5686 Mg CO₂. The cost-effectiveness from the national perspective,which is the incremental life cycle costs divided by the lifetime emissionsreductions, is –$18 per Mg CO₂ From the perspective of theCDM investor, however, the cost-effectiveness is $5.2 per mgCO₂, assuming that the investor receives all of the carbon credits forproviding the incremental capital investment. From our analysis, weconclude that using the current technology (kerosene stoves) as a baselineis probably not appropriate because it does not reflect likely future trendsand also penalises the community for their poverty and current lack ofinfrastructure. We also highlight the importance of credit sharing, and howit affects the cost-effectiveness of the project from the CDM investor'sperspective. The lessons from this analysis are important for the currentinternational policy debate on how to preferentially treat small-scale CDMprojects.     

浅谈参与清洁发展机制的意义

清洁发展机制,是《京都议定书》中引入的三个灵活履约机制之一。由于发达国家减排温室气体的成本是发展中国家的几倍甚至几十倍。发达国家因此通过在发展中国家实施具有温室气体减排效果的项目,把项目所产生的温室气体减少的排放量作为履行《京都议定书》所规定的一部分义务。对清洁生产机制的理论和意义进行了简要的阐述和说明。     

贵州清洁发展机制开发的障碍与对策建议

为了使贵州省的清洁发展机制（CDM）项目更好、更快地发展,以服务于国家的减排目标,从煤层气开发利用、小水电、生物型替代燃料等几个方面,对贵州清洁发展机制的现状与存在的主要问题进行了剖析,然后结合我省的实际情况提出了相应的对策建议。     

温室气体排放总量计算的不确定性及对清洁发展机制的影响

系统分析了温室气体排放总量计算中存在的不确定性，阐述了这些不确定性对未来清洁发展机制合作的影响指出CO2应该是未来清洁发展机制合作减排的主要温室气体，这也符合中国的能源利用特点。     

清洁发展机制项目运作关键问题分析与管理对策研究

清洁发展机制（CDM）项目要想能够顺利通过一系列审查并最终获得减排量,需要特别重视项目运作流程中的关键环节。针对中国CDM项目审批数量少,通过率低,耗费时间长等问题,本文在分析CDM内涵及项目运作流程的基础上,指出了中国CDM项目运作中面临的主要问题,提出了相应的管理对策与建议,期望能够为中国推进CDM项目实施提供帮助。     

Will Simplified Modalities and Procedures Make More Small-Scale Forestry Projects Viable Under the Clean Development Mechanism?

Simplified modalities and procedures (M&P) are expected to increase the viability of small-scale project activities under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). A small-scale afforestation or reforestation (AR) project is defined as a project removing less than 8 kilotons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) per year. Depending on the project type and the method for measuring scale, 8 kilotons of CO₂e per year correspond to highly diverse areas, possibly ranging from 200 to 6000 ha. Using a model to calculate the minimum project scale above which the CDM is a positive financial incentive for eligible AR project activities, the paper analyzes whether a reduction of transaction costs under simplified M&P will be a sufficient incentive to motivate small-scale participation in the CDM. Model results show that, even under optimistic assumptions on carbon market conditions and transaction costs, small-scale project activities will not benefit from simplified M&P. Results also show that project activities removing more than 8 kilotons of CO₂e per year and registered as small-scale would be the ones that could benefit the most from simplified M&P. It is concluded that the participation of small-scale project activities to the CDM requires more than simplified M&P, the price of expiring Certified Emission Reductions being one of the most critical parameters.     

Issues and challenges for forest-based carbon-offset projects: A case study of the Noel Kempff climate action project in Bolivia

The Noel Kempff Climate Action Project in Bolivia, nowin its third year, is breaking ground to establishcredible and verifiable methods to quantify greenhousegas (GHG) benefits of land-use change and forestry (LUCF)projects. Developed under the United Nations FrameworkConvention Climate Change (FCCC) Activities ImplementedJointly pilot phase, the project conserves naturalforests that would otherwise have been subjected tocontinued logging and future agricultural conversion.Carbon (C) monitoring began with a C inventory of theproject area in 1997. The total amount of C in theproject area was 118 Tg (Tg = 10¹²g) ± 4%(95% confidence interval). Periodic monitoring ofrelevant C pools (occurring in 1999 and every 5 yrthereafter) occurs over the 30-year life of theproject to establish the difference between thewith-project and projected without-project scenarios. Permanent sample plots were established both insidethe project area to monitor changes in C pools overtime and in a proxy logging concession near theproject area to determine changes in C pools inforests that have been impacted by logging. Ground-based monitoring is complemented by datacollection on forest industry trends and land-usechange patterns. Remote sensing was used to developa vegetation stratification map of the area, and workis ongoing to investigate the potential application ofdual-camera aerial videography to improve theefficiency of monitoring over time.     

Land Area Eligible for Afforestation and Reforestation within the Clean Development Mechanism: A Global Analysis of the Impact of Forest Definition

Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol, countries have significant latitude to define a forest. The most important parameter affecting area designated as forest is the minimum crown cover which can be set between 10 and 30%. The choice will have implications for the amount of land available in a country for afforestation and reforestation activities within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM-AR). In this paper, we present an analysis of the regional differences in land availability for CDM-AR projects. We then examine how the choice of a high or low threshold value for crown cover will affect the area available for CDM activities and how the limitations imposed by this element of the definition compares to other factors that are likely to limit CDM activities. Results represent a global analysis that included all countries not included in Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol, and examined the effect on land availability of a range of crown cover thresholds ranging from 10–30%. Of the 140 Non-Annex One countries, 107 countries were found to have a potential for CDM-AR projects. Asia had the largest amount of combined area suitable for CDM-AR at the 10% crown cover threshold level. However, at 30%, South America had the greatest amount of land available, and a large change in available land area, which increased by almost five times compared to what was available at the 10% threshold. The area available in Africa increased by a factor of 5.5. Central America showed the largest increase, to almost 10 times more at the 30% threshold. By contrast, within Asia, the area increase was comparatively less, but still the area nearly doubled. Globally, a low threshold of 10% crown cover excluded almost 2/3 of the land identified that was eligible at 30%, over 5 million km². The spatial analyses showed not only the effects of the choice of the crown cover criterion, but also where the land was available for CDM activities within each country at different thresholds. Protected areas account for 10–20% of the CDM-AR eligible area in most countries.     

基于农户行为的土地利用人工社会模型的构造与应用

为探讨人工社会在土地利用变化研究领域中的应用,研究创建了一个模拟土地利用变化过程的人工社会模型(LUC-ASM)。该模型以农户和农民为两类主体(agents),模拟分析不同社会经济条件和政策影响下,两类主体对自己承包土地利用方式的微观决策所可能产生的宏观效应及其时空变化特征。以鄱阳湖区一个现实村落为主要研究对象,以农户从事各类生产活动的行为特征为准则,利用LUC-ASM模型模拟未来30年内该村落土地利用变化过程。结果表明,未来这一地区土地利用的变化与人口增长结构调整方式、国家土地利用与环保政策、社会经济发展态势等因素密切相关;在城市化的影响下,该地区的农业劳动力将会出现短缺,农村土地有可能被撂荒,需要及早采用政策措施予以避免。总体而言,LUC-ASM模型能够形象地反映土地利用变化过程的微观驱动机理及各种社会经济与环境因素影响的宏观效应,有助于深化我们对人与自然环境相互作用的认识。     

中部粮食主产区城镇化进程中农村土地变化的GIS分析和对策研究——以江西省为例

以中部地区的江西省为例,在分析其粮食产量变化轨迹基础上,选取1980、1995、2000年3个年份经过解译的LandsatTM遥感影像土地利用数据,应用GIS软件提取各年份土地利用类型及其面积数据,分析不同土地利用类型的变化轨迹,以及农业用地向城镇建设用地转变的面积及其分布。江西省的粮食总产量1978年开始不断提高,1985年后,年粮食总产量随年播种面积变化的趋势较明显,即播种面积高的年份,粮食的总产量也高。GIS分析结果显示,改革开放以来江西省绝大部分地区都出现了农业用地向城镇建设用地转变的现象,鄱阳湖平原地区成为农业用地向城镇建设用地转变的集中地区,农业用地向城镇建设用地转变较大的土地利用单元出现于京九铁路、浙赣铁路和湘赣铁路等交通沿线的大、中型城市周围。城镇化导致了耕地大面积减少,从而影响了粮食产量,协调对策主要有提高播种面积,引种优良作物品种,提高农民的种粮积极性等。     

退耕还林工程对黄土高原土地利用/覆被变化的影响——以陕西省安塞县为例

退耕还林工程(Sloping land conversion program, SLCP)可快速改变土地利用/覆被格局。论文以黄土高原典型沟壑区--陕西省安塞县为例,利用MSS/TM/ETM+卫星遥感影像,获取研究区6个时期土地利用/覆被的时空信息,通过统计模型,定量分析了研究区SLCP对土地利用/覆被格局的影响。草地、耕地及林地为研究区三大主要土地利用/覆被类型,研究区土地利用/覆被变化整体处于不平衡态势;整个研究时段内,耕地先增后减,整体减少38.4%;林地先减后增,整体增加4.36%;灌木林地和草地减少,而未成林造林地快速增加;SLCP显著加强了耕地的递减趋势,并大幅增加了未成林造林地面积,至2010年未成林造林地面积显著大于天然林地的面积。这些变化可能具有降低土壤侵蚀与产流量、改善土壤结构、增加土壤碳吸收等效应;SLCP能提高农民收入,且大部分农民支持SLCP;但其负面效应亦不可忽视。研究将有助于对SLCP效应的全面理解,并可为该区生态恢复工程的规划与决策及生态环境保护提供参考。     

土地利用变化对湿地景观连通性的影响及连通性优化效应——以江苏盐城海滨湿地为例

土地利用与土地覆盖变化对湿地景观的结构和功能产生深刻的影响。选择江苏盐城海滨地区为研究对象,应用遥感和地理信息系统技术,分析20年来土地利用变化对湿地景观连通性的影响,并以2007年湿地景观生态系统服务功能为基础,采用阻力面模型探讨湿地景观连通性优化途径及其效应。结果显示:①1987—2007年间,盐城海滨区域土地利用结构变化显著。其中耕地面积比重由36.72%上升为46.17%,自然湿地持续减少,面积由44.4%减为26.01%,人工湿地持续增加,面积由9.96%上升为18.72%;②随着区域人类土地利用活动的加强,光滩、碱蓬沼泽和芦苇沼泽的空间连通性降低,区域土地利用导致湿地景观之间生态流阻隔,景观生态服务功能减弱;③2007年湿地景观生态功能强度空间差异显著,以累积耗费距离面、生态源地、耗费路径为依据,对湿地景观连通路径优化结果表明,废黄河口和大丰港附近等关键区域对景观连通性和生态流影响最大,是景观生态节点优化的首要对象;④加强连通路径的关键区域优化、提高景观连通度是实现景观优化的关键。     

土地利用变化对喀斯特水体溶解无机碳、总氮和总磷输出的影响——以贵州普定沙湾模拟试验场为例

耦联水生光合作用的碳酸盐岩风化碳汇是全球碳循环研究的关键问题,生物碳泵效应不仅能够稳定碳酸盐风化碳汇,也有利于改善水环境,而过量输入氮、磷会导致水环境变差。土地利用变化作为全球变化重要内容之一,对流域碳氮磷的输出具有重要影响,但关于土地利用变化对喀斯特水体溶解无机碳、总氮和总磷输出影响的研究有待进一步加强。本研究以贵州普定沙湾喀斯特试验场为研究对象,以研究土地利用变化对水文、水化学、溶解无机碳汇通量、总氮通量和总磷通量的影响。结果表明,流量、径流深、土壤CO₂浓度、pCO₂、HCO^-₃浓度和电导率呈现出夏秋季节高、春冬季节低的变化特征,与pH变化相反。样地间,土壤CO₂浓度、pCO₂、HCO^-₃浓度和电导率表现为草地>灌丛地>农耕地>裸土地>裸岩地,与pH变化相反。参与岩溶作用的土壤CO₂是造成水化学变化的主要原因。溶解无机碳汇通量和总氮通量呈现出夏秋季节高、春冬季节...