商业建筑营业厅疏散楼梯总宽度设计与计算

依据经建生等人的观点,在商场营业厅人员换算系数及百人疏散指标这两个参数不变的情况下,商场营业厅疏散楼梯总宽度设计值取决于营业厅的面积折算值,并建议地上商业建筑的取值为0.5～0.7.研究表明,将营业厅面积折算值应用于商业建筑设计得出的楼梯间总宽度偏大.本文基于安全且经济地完成防火设计任务的理念,首先从调整商场营业厅面积折算值和将自动扶梯宽度计入疏散楼梯总宽度的角度进一步完善大型商场营业厅疏散楼梯总宽度设计,使其更趋于合理;然后应用火灾模拟软件及人员疏散时间公式进行验算,证明人员疏散是安全的,即本文提供的两种方法是可行的,从而为<建筑设计防火规范>的修编提供参考.     

关于大型商场人员疏散及中厅防火分隔的探讨

发生灾难时,人们都会选择日常熟悉的路线疏散,大型商场人们平时都使用自动扶梯上下购物.火灾时,会有人涌入扶梯,本文通过合理选择中厅分隔措施,以正常地疏散人流.     

高层建筑火灾初期人员疏散策略的优化分析

通过分析高层建筑火灾条件下的人员安全疏散问题,构建了高层建筑火灾初期的垂直疏散模型,并提出2种疏散策略.策略Ⅰ:电梯停靠层以下全部用楼梯疏散,停靠层及以上楼层用电梯疏散;策略Ⅱ:各楼层人员按不同比例通过电梯进行疏散.然后通过调用随机函数,在一个动态运行模式下求解模型,分析停靠层、楼层人数及电梯疏散人数比例对疏散效果的影响,得到2种策略条件下的近似最优解.分析楼梯、电梯的疏散规律,得出楼层人数、电梯停靠层和电梯疏散人数比例对疏散效果的影响并非单一的线性关系:楼层人数较少时,随楼层的增加,电梯疏散更具优势;楼层人数过多时,电梯、楼梯的疏散效果都不明显,此时需要合理确定通过楼梯、电梯疏散的人数比例才能提高疏散效果.比较2种策略发现,策略Ⅱ疏散时间更短,而策略Ⅰ在现实中的运行能力和可操作性更强.     

体育赛场人群疏散过程滞留人数定量模型研究

体育赛场历史事故统计分析表明,出口堵塞为导致人群拥挤踩踏事故发生的主要原因.滞留人群是疏散过程最常见的一种人流形式,同时也是拥挤踩踏事故风险的主要承载体.基于人群流量与人群密度关系建立了体育赛场时间维变量的滞留人数定量模型.体育赛场看台不同宽度出口人群疏散计算结果表明,滞留人数不仅对人群疏散时间有直接影响,而且与事故发生概率之间存在一定的关系.该模型可用于指导体育赛场出口设计,疏散路线选择及应急预案的编制等.     

超高层建筑人员电梯辅助疏散及其影响参数研究

针对传统疏散方式很难在短时间内有效地将人员疏散至室外安全区的难题,研究分析了超高层建筑中人员疏散策略以及电梯作为辅助人员疏散方式的可行性。首先,对人员疏散速度进行了研究,对电梯运行特性进行了分析;然后,利用数值模拟的方法,对影响电梯辅助疏散的参数进行研究,以对超高层建筑人员疏散以及疏散电梯的设计提供理论参考。结果表明,电梯与疏散楼梯相结合的疏散方式能够快速地完成高层建筑内部人员疏散。该组合疏散方式中决定总疏散时间的主要因素是疏散人数、电梯运行速度、电梯容纳人数、电梯疏散人员比例。当电梯疏散人数占总体疏散人数的40％时,疏散总时间最短。     

人员疏散准备时间及其对火灾风险评估结果的影响

火灾时人员的有效避难评估是火灾风险评估中的重要组成部分.作为人员疏散时间中重要组成部分的疏散准备时间服从概率分布,而通常计算中往往将其简单取为常数.将人员疏散准备时间简单取为常数时,有可能产生模拟计算结果比实际偏差大、疏散情形与真实情况不符的情况.以一座办公建筑为例进行了计算,将人员疏散准备时间简单取为常数时与人员疏散时间服从正态分布的情况进行了比较,并分析了对火灾风险评估结果的影响.     

基于BP神经网络算法的北京市地铁站应急疏散能力仿真评估模型

地铁站的应急疏散能力是地下铁道安全运营设计中非常重要的部分,对于维持社会稳定,保障人民安全具有重大意义.本文利用BP神经网络计算方法和MATLAB软件,选取可能影响地铁站疏散能力的相关因素作为评价指标,建立了应急疏散指标体系,并以北京北三环区域周边地铁站作为主要研究对象,对北京市地铁站应急疏散能力进行了仿真评估,提出了增加疏散通道、疏散楼梯、安全出口等数量,以提高地铁站应急疏散能力等一些可供参考的建议.     

基于模糊综合评价-集值统计法的大型商场外因火灾风险性分析

大型商场火灾发生的原因多种多样,且易造成严重的后果和恶劣的社会影响。为了提高大型商场火灾风险性等级并且为其评价研究提供一种更加合理的评价方法,采用将2级模糊综合评价与集值统计法相结合的模型对大型商场外因火灾的风险性进行评价。根据相关法律法规并借鉴已有研究成果,充分考虑外因火灾的特点(主要从消防设施及能力因素、消防安全管理因素、人员应急疏散因素3个方面进行分析),建立针对大型商场外因火灾的评价指标体系,其中二级指标包括3个,三级指标包括12个。利用集值统计法将评价指标的描述表示为一段区间值,进而确定各评价指标的权重,并对得出的权重进行可靠性分析,采用加权平均模型确定火灾风险性总的相对隶属度,并求出模糊特征向量;最后根据总得分确定火灾的风险性等级。利用该方法对沈阳某大型商场外因火灾危险性进行了评价分析,并与传统的评价方法(层次分析法)相对比,其评价结果都为"二级(好)",表明该方法的评价结果合理。同时分析得到了大型商场火灾防控的薄弱环节,并提出了相应的有效改进措施。     

基于C-OWA算子与物元可拓的大型商场火灾风险评估

为了客观准确地评价大型商场的安全性,降低大型商场火灾事故的风险,以WSR方法论为指导,与系统论的"人、机、环、管"相对应建立了基于WSR方法论的大型商场火灾风险指标体系,采用组合数有序加权算子C-OWA算子对指标体系进行相对公平赋权,结合物元可拓模型对大型商场火灾风险进行评估,并以北京某大型商场为例进行了应用,结果显示,所评估的商场火灾风险显性级别为"一般",隐性级别为"较危险+",与实际商场火灾安全状态相符。研究表明,基于COWA算子与物元可拓的模型可以适用于大型商场火灾的安全评价,有利于提升商场火灾风险应对。     

基于人因安全心理视角下人员疏散时间模型研究

为提高疏散时间模型的可靠度,基于人因工程中安全心理因素理论对高校宿舍疏散时间模型进行研究。采用了多元线性回归分析和曲线估计方法,通过疏散演习获取实验数据,构建安全疏散心理因素指标,在人员疏散时间回归模型的基础上,结合SPSS软件的回归分析,建立了疏散时间回归方程。在考虑群集疏散速度的前提下,对疏散时间方程进行优化,并利用Origin等高线图直观地表现了疏散时间、速度、人数三个变量的关系。结果表明:疏散时间主要受性别、楼层、指挥者和环境熟悉度的影响,疏散人数与疏散时间呈三次曲线关系,研究结果可为人员疏散设计和疏散方案的制定、疏散路径的优化提供参考。     

油浸变压器排油注氮装置在500kV变电站的设计与应用

在分析500kV变电站主变压器消防系统的现状,比较3类消防系统优缺点的基础上,详细论述了主变排油注氮装置的结构组成、工作原理、参数计算、控制系统设计以及需要注意的事项等,为下一步排油注氮装置的推广应用打下基础.     

HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

Nighttime pedestrian fatalities: A comprehensive examination of infrastructure,user, vehicle,and situational factors

Introduction: Pedestrian fatalities in the United States increased 45.5% between 2009 and 2017. More than 85% of those additional pedestrian fatalities occurred at night. Method: We examine Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for fatal pedestrian crashes that occurred in the dark between 2002 and 2017. Within-variable and before/after examinations of crashes in terms of infrastructure, user, vehicle, and situational characteristics are performed with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and two-sample t-tests. We model changes in crash characteristic proportions between 2002–2009 and 2010–2017 using linear regressions and test for autocorrelation with Breusch-Godfrey tests. Results: The increase in fatal nighttime pedestrian crashes is most strongly correlated with infrastructure factors: non-intersection unmarked locations (saw 80.8% of additional fatalities); 40–45 mph roads (54.6%); five-lane roads (40.7%); urban (99.7%); and arterials (81.1%). In addition, SUVs were involved in 39.7% of additional fatalities, overrepresenting their share of the fleet. Increased pedestrian alcohol and drug involvement warrant further investigation. The age of pedestrians killed increased more (18.1%) than the national average (3.2%). Conclusions: By identifying factors related to the increase in nighttime pedestrian fatalities, this work constitutes a vital first step in making our streets safer for pedestrians. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand the efficacy of different solutions, but this paper provides guidance for such future research. Engineering solutions such as road diets or traffic calming may be used to improve identified infrastructure issues by reducing vehicle speeds and road widths. Rethinking vehicle design, especially high front profiles, may improve vehicle issues. However, the problems giving rise to these pedestrian fatalities are likely a result of not only engineering issues but also interrelated social and political factors. Solutions may be correspondingly comprehensive, employing non-linear, systems-based approaches such as Safe Systems.     

潞安矿区煤层渗透率的各向异性特征实验研究

为了研究原位煤体渗透性的各向异性特征,以山西潞安常村矿3号煤层圆柱试样为对象,利用TCQT-Ⅲ型低渗煤层气相驱替增产试验装置,对煤样进行加载,并以氮气注入压力2.0 MPa的条件下,分析垂直层理和平行层理2个方向的煤体变形和渗透率变化特征。实验结果表明:煤样在加载过程中,平行和垂直层理煤样渗透率均随着有效应力的增大而减小,平行层理方向的渗透率始终大于垂直层理方向,应力加载初期渗透率急剧下降,最后逐渐趋于平缓;径向应变的增加量与渗透率呈正相关性,且平行层理相关性大于垂直层理;沿平行层理方向的裂隙度大于沿垂直层理方向,沿垂直层理方向的应变量大于沿平行层理方向;应变增加量均随有效应力的增加而逐渐减小。研究结果可为煤层井网布置及优化提供参考。     

森林地表火蔓延模拟方法及其计算机实现

进行了森林火蔓延的研究,对传统的经验公式和模型进行改进,明显发现改进的模型有更好的结果,用计算机巧妙准确地实现了模拟模型,在风力不是特别大,地形变化不是特别剧烈时,该模型有较高精度;并结合火蔓延的主要因素（气象因子、气候、地形等）,进行系统分析,写出算地,编制实现地表火蔓延的预测预报计算机系统软件。这对于有效的组织扑救、减少火灾损失、计算森林火灾的损失评估有重要意义。     

Footedness and Mounting—Short Review and Two Case Studies

Footedness is a personal quality like handedness. Footedness may be associated with moving ability during mounting, dismounting, and jumping movements. Occupational accidents have occurred during movement at different working levels, during the use of access and exit systems, and during the mounting of vehicles. Aging can also affect accident risk and body laterality. For example, falling accidents on stairs are common among the elderly. One reason for accidents may be that the structure of the access system or stair system is unsuitable for individual moving patterns depending partly on body laterality. Footedness and the way the feet are used may be contradictory to the demands of the moving situation, especially during uncommon or rapid situations. This contradiction may trigger disturbance during moving. The aims of this pilot study were (a) to review the literature briefly and (b) to describe the use of the dominant and nondominant foot by farmers and the elderly when mounting a tractor and stairs, respectively. The study also gives ideas for future studies based on both (a) and (b).     

AHP与GA-SVM耦合模型在滑坡预警中的应用*

为了减少滑坡造成的损失,提高滑坡预测的准确性,通过搭建灾害模拟平台获得滑坡的实验数据,在获得多组模拟实验数据后,分析各变量的特性。首先,通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)算法,对滑坡进行危险度划分;然后,通过支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)建立模型,遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)再优化SVM参数,提出1种层次分析法与GA-SVM相耦合的模型。研究结果表明:AHP方法划分后的数据,通过GA与SVM结合建立的模型精度较好,实验预测结果与实际结果较为吻合,与单一SVM相比,精度更高,结果更好,更加适用于多变量的复杂非线性滑坡预警。     

Debunking the false dichotomy of leadership idealism and pragmatism: Critical evaluation and support of newer genre leadership theories

Leadership theories have shifted over the last few decades from a focus on managerial functions and economic leader–follower exchanges toward greater focus on the interpersonal dynamics occurring within the leadership process. Theories such as transformational, ethical, authentic, and other “newer genre” theories were created to address neglected topics such as leader vision and inspirational messages, transparency, emotional effects, morality, individualized attention, and intellectual stimulation. Critiques of these theories, however, have been raised. In this paper, we address five of those critiques and argue for the validity and practical effectiveness of the new genre theories. Further, we describe how newer genre leadership research should be viewed as a performative epistemology, entailing a process of co‐creation involving scholars and practitioners. Finally, from this view, we provide general ideas for leader development. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational Safety and Health in Finland

In Finland, occupational safety is the responsibility of the employer, while the occupational safety and health laws are enforced by the Labour Inspection Service, an organization of the state. The Labour Inspection is divided in 11 administrative districts, and it employs 360 professionals. They are mandated to carry out site visits without prearranged appointments to inspect safe work situations, working hours, construction safety, or any aspect of accident risks. The inspectors are also mandated to verify the existence of sufficient occupational health services as prescribed by the Occupational Health Services Act for all employees. The occupational health services are typically provided by enterprise-owned medical departments, by mutually owned health care centers, by private practitioners, or by municipal health care centers. The latter are required by law to provide all services as prescribed by the legislation to anyone who comes to the facility. This situation is prevalent in the countryside, where there are very few private caregiving centers. Declaring occupational accidents and disease cases is mandatory, and the Inspection districts examine all accidents to establish causes and consequences, and to initiate prosecution in case of criminal negligence. Labour Inspection Districts are also notified of the new occupational disease cases as they are declared to insurance companies. Insurance for occupational disease, accidents, and death is an obligation of the employer, although they can choose the insurance company. The medical confidentiality between the workers and their occupational health care providers is very strict. Official statistics are maintained by the state Statistics Finland organization, and they may be used, for example, for research purposes by scientific institutes like the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Construction industry accounts for 25% of all fatal accidents (120 cases per 1 million working hours), followed by mechanical, wood, metal, machinery, and pulp and paper industry (10% each of fatal accidents) with rates ranging from 100–160 cases per 1 million working hours. There are some 5,000 occupational disease cases per year (rate 22/10,000 employed). The major disease categories include repetitive strain injuries (1,300 cases), respiratory allergies (600 cases), occupational skin diseases (1,000 cases), and 900 cases of noise-caused hearing loss. In 1998, 589 cases of asbestos-related diseases were reported.     

公路隧道火灾逃生疏散研究

以苍岭隧道为背景,首先采用经验计算理论和计算软件building EXODUS相结合的方式,从被困人员的安全疏散时间、高温烟气的影响、隧道横通道的利用率以及人员的疏散行为特性进行了研究。结果表明:中小规模火灾情况下的安全疏散时间控制在8 min之内,高温烟气影响不大,但横通道的利用率不平均,且人员疏散路线相对集中。然后对存在的逃生疏散问题提出针对性建议以及其他相关建议,旨在为更大程度降低事故的严重性和经济财产损失。