A CRITICAL REVIEW OF VOLLENWEIDER'S NUTRIENT BUDGET MODEL AND OTHER RELATED MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Early attempts at nutrient budget modeling considered only the case where there was no loss of the material by sedimentation, i.e. the substance was assumed to be conservative. Nonstratified and stratified conditions have both been investigated under these terms. An elegant model, taking into account loss of a substance by sedimentation as well as flushing was presented by Vollenweider in 1969. Although this model has several shortcomings, it is particularly valuable because it can have immediate practical value in terms of water management policy development. These basic shortcomings in the model are analyzed and suggestions are made to alter the model to take these factors into account.     

Eco-environmental changes and causative analysis in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, China

In the most recent four decades the eco-environment in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers has been continuously getting worse, this is mainly manifested in the serious vegetation degradation, rapidly developing desertification, lake shrinkage and salinization, wetland degradation and biodiversity reduction. This paper attempts to give a quantitative analysis to such eco-environmental changes and explore their causes. The main factors responsible for such changes are climate change and the alterations of glacial snow accumulation and the freeze-thaw processes of the frozen soil, as well as overgrazing and rodent damage. The eco-environmental changes in the source regions not only influence the social-economic development of these regions but also have affected, or are affecting, the whole river basins' social-economic development.     

Competing conservation goals, biodiversity or ecosystem services: element losses and species recruitment in a managed moorland-bracken model system

Conservation management in Europe is often geared towards restoring semi-natural ecosystems, where the objective is to reverse succession and re-establish early-successional communities, to comply with national and international conservation targets. At the same time, it is increasingly recognised that ecosystems provide services that contribute to other, possibly conflicting policy requirements. Few attempts have been made to define these conflicts. Here, we assess some potential conflicts using a Calluna vulgaris-dominated moorland invaded by bracken (Pteridium aquilinum) as a model system, where the current policy is to reverse this process and restore moorland. We examined impacts of bracken control treatments on services (stocks and losses of C and mineral nutrients), litter turnover and biodiversity within a designed experiment over 7 years. Bracken litter was >2000 g m(-2) in untreated plots, and treatments reduced this quantity, and its element content, to varying degrees. Cutting twice per year was the most successful treatment in reducing bracken litter and its element content, increasing litter turnover, and increasing both mass and diversity of non-bracken vegetation. Diversity was greatest where bracken litter had been reduced, but species composition was also influenced by light sheep grazing. There was a significant loss of some chemical elements from bracken that could not be accounted for in other pools, and hence potentially lost from the system. In absolute terms large amounts of C and N were lost, but when expressed as a percentage of the total amount in the system, Mg was potentially more important with losses of almost a third of the Mg in the surface soil-vegetation system. There is, therefore, a potential dilemma between controlling a mid-successional invasive species for conservation policy objectives, especially when that species has evolved to sequester nutrients, and the negative effect of increasing environmental costs in terms of carbon accounting required, the potential input of nutrients to aquatic systems, and long-term nutrient loss. There is, therefore, a need to balance conservation goals against potential damage to biogeochemical structure and function.     

Continuing Issues in the Limitations of Pesticide Use in Developing Countries

The rationale for pesticide use in agriculture is that costs associated with pesticide pollution are to be justified by its benefits, but this is not so obvious. Valuing the benefits by simple economic analysis has increased pesticide use in agriculture and consequently produced pesticide-induced “public ills.” This paper attempts to explore the research gaps of the economic and social consequences of pesticide use in developing countries, particularly with an example of Nepal. We argue that although the negative sides of agricultural development, for example- soil, water, and air pollution; pest resistance and resurgence; bioaccumulation, bio-magnification; and loss of biodiversity and ecosystem resilience caused by the use of pesticides in agriculture, are “developmental problems” and are “unintentional,” the magnitude may be increased by undervaluing the problems in the analysis of its economic returns. Despite continuous effort for holistic system analyses for studying complex phenomena like pesticides impacts, the development within the academic science has proceeded in the opposite direction that might have accelerated marginalization of the third world subsistence agricultural communities. We hypothesize that, if these adversities are realized and accounted for, the benefits from the current use of pesticides could be outweighed by the costs of pollution and ill human health. This paper also illustrates different pathways and mechanisms for marginalization. In view of potential and overall negative impacts of pesticide use, we recommend alternative ways of controlling pests such as community integrated pest management (IPM) along with education and training activities. Such measures are likely to reduce the health and environmental costs of pesticide pollution, and also enhance the capabilities of third world agricultural communities in terms of knowledge, decision making, innovation, and policy change.     

Economic assessment of managing processionary moth in pine forests: a case-study in Portugal

This paper assesses the private and social profitability of current strategies for managing processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) in Portuguese pine forests, looking at economic and environmental costs and benefits. Costs include the expenses for forest treatment and the social costs of threats to human health (dermatitis amongst others); benefits are assessed in terms of both revenue and social benefits such as carbon fixation and recreation. The evaluation was done using Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) as an analytical framework. While this tool is currently applied to forest and environmental assessment and specific applications to pest management strategies are to be found in agricultural economics, rather few attempts have been made in the field of forest pest management. In order to assess and compare with--without options, a case-study was analysed for the Setúbal Peninsula, south of Lisbon, an area where extensive stands of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) grow. The exercise has shown that CBA can be a valuable tool for assessing the economic and social profitability of pest management. The results demonstrate that the loss of revenues in the no-management option is not sufficient to make pest management profitable for private forest owners in the short-term. Conversely, a social profit is gained as pest management minimizes health risks for humans and avoids possible recreational losses.     

VALIDATION OF POLITICAL SIMULATION MODELS -WATER RESOURCE PROJECTS1

ABSTRACT. The critical role of political processes in water resource projects has recently been placed in a new perspective [Hall, 1970]. The “political hassle” period of institutional interaction which serves to resolve political conflicts over such aspects as organizational growth and survival, responsibility for economic liabilities, and responsibility for economic benefits, requires systematic analysis in order to improve our capability to implement water projects. Failure to properly assess the political aspects of a proposed water project may result in extensive delays with significant economic losses. The complexities associated with water use and re-use have created the need for new institutional arrangements which can more effectively function to implement policies and programs. One tool which has recently become available for the research investigator concerned with institutional interactions and political processes associated with water resource projects is the technique of computer simulation of such institutional interaction. In theory, this new approach will enable the investigator to assess the political feasibility or political acceptability of a proposed water project given existing institutional structures. Furthermore, the investigator has the opportunity to experiment with new and innovative institutional arrangements which may in turn enhance the political acceptability of a proposed project. The specific material presented within this paper reports upon the validation of an existing computer simulation model designed to replicate political interactions in resource allocation problems-including water resource problems. This validation effort is done by taking an actual water problem and comparing what the political simulation models predicts in terms of political outcomes with what actually takes place. The case study in question is the formulation and legislative development of the Michigan Bond Issue for Water Pollution Control.     

Criteria for the Assessment of Sustainable Water Management

Pressure on the world’s water resources is increasing, restraining social and economic development in many countries, and threatening ecological values in others. In order to manage water resources in a more sustainable manner, new planning methodologies/processes for river basin management need to be developed. This study attempts to construct a set of useable normative criteria for the analysis and evaluation of such processes. The criteria were designed as a response to the lack of deductive approaches in the evaluation of methodologies and working procedures used in the context of river basin management, making it possible to highlight their potential for sustainable development. The criteria are based on the twin concepts of participation and integration. These concepts function as well-established dimensions of both sustainable development and sustainable river basin management, and they are of significant methodological relevance. A synthesis of the key aspects connected to the two concepts is undertaken, based on a broad literature review. Focus is laid on how in methodological terms, and in relation to regional water management, to achieve participation and integration in a decision-making or planning process. The criteria are concerned with how knowledge and values are integrated into the planning process and how commitment, legitimacy, or acceptance for the resulting plan is generated.     

Towards Understanding the Impacts of the Pet Food Industry on World Fish and Seafood Supplies

The status of wild capture fisheries has induced many fisheries and conservation scientists to express concerns about the concept of using forage fish after reduction to fishmeal and fish oil, as feed for farmed animals, particularly in aquaculture. However, a very large quantity of forage fish is being also used untransformed (fresh or frozen) globally for other purposes, such as the pet food industry. So far, no attempts have been made to estimate this quantum, and have been omitted in previous fishmeal and fish oil exploitation surveys. On the basis of recently released data on the Australian importation of fresh or frozen fish for the canned cat food industry, here we show that the estimated amount of raw fishery products directly utilized by the cat food industry equates to 2.48 million metric tonnes per year. This estimate, plus the previously reported global fishmeal consumption for the production of dry pet food suggest that 13.5% of the total 39.0 million tonnes of wild caught forage fish is used for purposes other than human food production. This study attempts to bring forth information on the direct use of fresh or frozen forage fish in the pet food sector that appears to have received little attention to this date and that needs to be considered in the global debate on the ethical nature of current practices on the use of forage fish, a limited biological resource.     

Crop damage and livestock depredation by wildlife: a case study from Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve,India

The success of conserving biological resources in any Biosphere Reserve or protected area depends on the extent of support and positive attitudes and perceptions of local people have towards such establishments. Ignoring the dependence of the local people for their subsistence needs on resources of such areas leads to conflicts between protected area managers and the local inhabitants. Crop yield losses and livestock depredation were serious problems observed in most buffer zone villages of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve. In the present study 10 villages situated in the buffer zone of Nanada Devi Biosphere Reserve (1612 km2 area) in Chamoli district of Uttaranchal, India were studied during 1996-97 using a questionnaire survey of each household (419 = households; 2253 = total population in 1991; 273 ha = cultivated area). Estimates of crop yield losses were made using paired plots technique in four representative villages for each crop species. The magnitude of crop yield losses varied significantly with the distance of agricultural field from forest boundary. The total crop yield losses were high for wheat and potato in all the villages. The spatial distribution of total crop yield losses in any village indicated that they were highest in the area near to forest and least in the area near to village for all crops. Losses from areas near to forest contributed to more than 50% of total losses for each crop in all villages. However, in Lata, Peng and Tolma villages, the losses are high for kidney bean and chemmi (local variety of kidney bean) which varied between 18.5% to 30% of total losses in those villages. Potato alone represents 43.6% of total crop yield loss due to wildlife in Dronagiri village in monetary terms. Among the crops, the monetary value of yield losses are least for amaranth and highest for kidney bean. The projected total value of crop yield losses due to wildlife damage for buffer zone villages located in Garhwal Himalaya is about Rs. 538,620 (US$ 15,389). Besides food grains, horticultural crops i.e. apple, also suffered maximum damage. Major wildlife agents responsible for crop damage were wild boar, bear, porcupine, monkey, musk deer and partridge (chokor). Monkey and wild boar alone accounted for about 50% to 60% of total crop damage in the study villages. Goat and sheep are the major livestock killed by leopard. The total value of livestock losses at prevailing market rates is about Rs. 1,024,520 (US$ 29,272) in the study villages. Due to existing conservation policies and laxity in implementation of preventive measures, the problems for local inhabitants are increasing. Potential solutions discussed emphasize the need to undertake suitable and appropriate protective measures to minimize the crop losses. Change in cropping and crop composition, particularly cultivation of medicinal plants (high value low volume crops), were also suggested. Besides, fair and quick disbursement of compensation for crop loss and livestock killing need to be adopted. Local people of the buffer zone area already have a negative attitude towards park/reserve establishment due to socio-political changes inducing major economic losses and this attitude may lead to clashes and confrontations if proper ameliorative measures are not taken immediately.     

A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING AGRICULTURAL WATER CONSERVATION POTENTIALS1

ABSTRACT: This paper defines types of water losses in irrigated agriculture and outlines potentials for water conservation. Recoverable water “losses” (seepage, leakage, and spillage during storage and conveyance, and surface runoff and deep percolation during irrigation) and irrecoverable losses (evaporation from water and soil surfaces and transpiration from plants) are described and illustrated. Some conservation terms are defined, particularly the distinction between on-farm irrigation efficiency and areawide efficiency. Briefly reviewed are agricultural water conservation technologies and their applicability. The biggest untapped potential for water conservation may be a reduction in irrecoverable losses, especially evapotranspiration. The advantages and disadvantages of reducing recoverable and irrecoverable water losses are described, including possible effects on ground water, energy, salinity, crops, wildlife, and in-stream uses. Such information may be useful in several policy and management issues, e.g., ground water overdraft and possible constraints on crops and sites to be irrigated.     

ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN: CONCEPTUAL DEFINITIONS, MEASUREMENT METHODS, AND RESEARCH FINDINGS

A serious threat to human beings and their environment is the continuous and accelerating overuse and destruction of natural resources. Bearing this in mind, it is unfortunate that efforts to permanently change people's environmentally destructive behaviour through interventions has typically not been met with success. A necessary condition may be an increase in environmental concern and knowledge about the effects and consequences of the ongoing environmental deterioration for future generations. Studies are reviewed that have attempted to show (1) correlations between determinants, such as socio-demographic and/or psychological factors, and environmental concern, and (2) an impact of environmental concern on environmentally responsible behaviour. In general, correlations with background factors are weak. Factors affecting behaviour appear to be knowledge, internal locus of control (positive control beliefs), personal responsibility, and perceived threats to personal health. The need for further research that attempts to specify the process leading to environmentally responsible behaviour is highlighted. A new framework is presented which integrates some of the previous research.     

Climatic hazards warning process in Bangladesh: Experience of,and lessons from,the 1991 April cyclone

Science and technology cannot control entirely the causes of natural hazards. However, by using multifaceted programs to modify the physical and human use systems, the potential losses from disasters can effectively be minized. Predicting, identifying, monitoring, and forecasting extreme meteorological events are the preliminary actions towards mitigating the cyclone-loss potential of coastal inhabitants, but without the successful dissemination of forecasts and relevant information, and without appropriate responses by the potential victims, the loss potential would probably remain the same. This study examines the process through which warning of the impending disastrous cyclone of April 1991 was received by the local communities and disseminated throughout the coastal regions of Bangladesh. It is found that identification of the threatening condition due to atmospheric disturbance, monitoring of the hazard event, and dissemination of the cyclone warning were each very successful. However, due to a number of socioeconomic and cognitive factors, the reactions and responses of coastal inhabitants to the warning were in general passive, resulting in a colossal loss, both at the individual and national level. The study recommends that the hazard mitigation policies should be integrated with national economic development plans and programs. Specifically, it is suggested that, in order to attain its goals, the cyclone warning system should regard the aspects of human response to warnings as a constituent part and accommodate human dimensions in its operational design.     

Nitrate nitrogen in surface waters as influenced by climatic conditions and agricultural practices

Subsurface tile drainage from row-crop agricultural production systems has been identified as a major source of nitrate entering surface waters in the Mississippi River basin. Noncontrollable factors such as precipitation and mineralization of soil organic matter have a tremendous effect on drainage losses, nitrate concentrations, and nitrate loadings in subsurface drainage water. Cropping system and nutrient management inputs are controllable factors that have a varying influence on nitrate losses. Row crops leak substantially greater amounts of nitrate compared with perennial crops; however, satisfactory economic return with many perennials is an obstacle at present. Improving N management by applying the correct rate of N at the optimum time and giving proper credits to previous legume crops and animal manure applications will also lead to reduced nitrate losses. Nitrate losses have been shown to be minimally affected by tillage systems compared with N management practices. Scientists and policymakers must understand these factors as they develop educational materials and environmental guidelines for reducing nitrate losses to surface waters.     

A Methodology for an integrated risk assessment of spatially relevant hazards

Natural and technological disasters of the past have shown that such incidences significantly affect local and regional development. Faced with the task of ensuring economic, human and environmental development as well as insuring physical structures, planning authorities, insurance companies and emergency managers are looking for methodologies to identify highly sensitive areas in terms of their overall risk. Existing methodologies like the Natural Hazard Index for Megacities or the Total Place Vulnerability Index have limitations due to their sectoral approach, which makes them less useful for integrated spatial planning. This paper presents the Integrated Risk Assessment of Multi-Hazards as a new approach to serve as a basis for a spatial risk management process. The approach integrates various hazards into an integrated hazard map, combines this with the region's vulnerability and thus produces an integrated risk map. Moreover, the methodology offers a tool to derive weighting factors for hazards as well as for vulnerability components.     

Multi-criteria analysis via the VIKOR method for prioritizing land-use restraint strategies in the Tseng-Wen reservoir watershed

It is important to adopt proper water and soil conservation and land-use planning in a watershed for lowering adverse impacts on reservoir water quality. Although reservoir watersheds occupy a large amount of land in Taiwan, high population density has exerted development pressures on such land. Therefore, the priority ranking of land-use restrictions for the subdivisions with different degrees of environmental vulnerability is necessary in watershed management. Since there are several criteria for evaluating the potential environmental impact from the subdivisions, multi-criteria analysis was applied as a technique for solving these problems in this study. The VIKOR method was applied to determine the best feasible solution according to the selected criteria, including geographical and meteorological factors. The objective of this study was to establish the priority ranking of land-use restrictions in the Tseng-Wen reservoir wastershed in southern Taiwan. The results show that subdivisions close to the outlet or reservoir area should have the priority of land-use restrictions.     

Use of a generalized linear model to evaluate range forage production estimates

Interdisciplinary teams have been used in federal land planning and in the private sector to reach consensus on the environmental impact of management. When a large data base is constructed, verifiability of the accuracy of the coded estimates and the underlying assumptions becomes a problem. A mechanism is provided by the use of a linear statistical model to evaluate production coefficients in terms of errors in coding and underlying assumptions. The technique can be used to evaluate other intuitive models depicting natural resource production in relation to prescribed variables, such as site factors or secondary succession.     

Assessing Degradation of Abandoned Farmlands for Conservation of the Monte Desert Biome in Argentina

Land abandonment is a major issue worldwide. In Argentina, the Monte Desert is the most arid rangeland, where the traditional conservation practices are based on successional management of areas excluded to disturbances or abandoned. Some areas subjected to this kind of management may be too degraded, and thus require active restoration. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess whether passive succession-based management is a suitable approach by evaluating the status of land degradation in a protected area after 17–41 years of farming abandonment. Soil traits and plant growth forms were quantified and compared between sites according to time since abandonment and former land use (cultivation and grazing). Two variables were calculated using the CORINE-CEC method, i.e., potential (PSER) and actual (ASER) soil erosion risk. PSER indicates the erosion risk when no vegetation is present, while ASER includes the protective role of vegetation cover. Results showed that land use history had no significant effect on plant growth forms or soil traits (p > 0.05). After more than 25 years since abandonment of farming activities, soil conditions and vegetation cover had improved, thus having a lower ASER. Nevertheless, the present soil physical crusts may have delayed the full development of vegetation, enhancing erosion processes. Overall, this study indicates that succession-based management may not be the best practice in terms of conservation. Therefore, any effort for conservation in the Monte Desert should contemplate the current status of land degradation and potential vegetation recovery.     

Mekong River Fish Conservation Zones in Southern Laos: Assessing Effectiveness Using Local Ecological Knowledge

Small-scale fisheries are important in Laos, where rural people heavily depend upon Mekong River and tributary fish stocks for their livelihoods. Increasing pressures from human exploitation and habitat disturbance, however, have raised serious concerns about the potential depletion of various species. This has led to the establishment of large numbers of Fish Conservation Zones (FCZs) or “no-take” fish sanctuaries in southern Laos based on a “community-based fisheries co-management” framework. This study uses the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of fishers to assess the effectiveness of village-managed FCZs in enhancing fish stocks in the mainstream Mekong River in Khong District, Champasak Province. Focus group interviews about species that are believed to have benefited from different FCZs are compared with parameters such as FCZ area, age, depth, localized gradient, water velocity, and the presence of wetland forests nearby. The results suggest that no one aspect is likely to account for variations in fish stocks; rather, it is the interaction between numerous factors that has the largest impact. Secondly, the results indicate that microhabitat diversity and protection are critical for maintaining and enhancing Mekong fisheries. Deep-water pools are particularly important as dry season refuges for many fish species, and FCZ depth may be the single most important environmental factor affecting the success of FCZs in the Mekong River. FCZs have the most potential to benefit relatively sedentary species, but may also benefit highly migratory species, given the right conditions. This study shows that integrated approaches to stock assessment that employ LEK and scientific fisheries management have considerable potential for improving Mekong capture-fisheries management.     

EVALUATING POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF INSECTICIDE APPLICATIONS IN A BOLL WEEVIL ERADICATION PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: Concerns have been expressed about the potential insecticide contamination of regional water resources from a boll weevil eradication program in Oklahoma. A mathematical model and geographic information system techniques were utilized to evaluate the potential of insecticide leaching and runoff from a major proposed program area in the state. Different but equally likely weather patterns were generated, and potential insecticide losses associated with each pattern were predicted. Soil types and their locations within cotton areas were identified, and potential chemical losses from each soil were delineated. Model simulations indicated that azinphos-methyl and diflubenzuron could leach from some porous soils and that all insecticides suggested for use in the program could be lost to runoff. The predicted chemical movements with runoff were significantly higher on irrigated land than from non-irrigated land. Malathion demonstrated no leaching and low potential of runoff losses among the insecticides evaluated.     

Antibiotic losses from unprotected manure stockpiles

Manure management is a major concern in livestock production systems. Although historically the primary concerns have been nutrients and pathogens, manure is also a source of emerging contaminants, such as antibiotics, to the environment. There is a growing concern that antibiotics in manure are reaching surface and ground waters and contributing to the development and spread of antibiotic resistance in the environment. One such pathway is through leaching and runoff from manure stockpiles. In this study, we quantified chlortetracycline, monensin, and tylosin losses in runoff from beef manure stockpiles during two separate but consecutive experiments representing different weather conditions (i.e., temperature and precipitation amount and form). Concentrations of chlortetracycline, monensin, and tylosin in runoff were positively correlated with initial concentrations of antibiotics in manure. The highest concentrations of chlortetracycline, monensin, and tylosin in runoff were 210, 3175, and 2544 microg L(-1), respectively. Relative antibiotic losses were primarily a function of water losses. In the experiment that had higher runoff water losses, antibiotic losses ranged from 1.2 to 1.8% of total extractable antibiotics in manure. In the experiment with lower runoff water losses, antibiotic losses varied from 0.2 to 0.6% of the total extractable antibiotics in manure. Manure analysis over time suggests that in situ degradation is an important mechanism for antibiotic losses. Degradation losses during manure stockpiling may exceed cumulative losses from runoff events. Storing manure in protected (i.e., covered) facilities could reduce the risk of aquatic contamination associated with manure stockpiling and other outdoor manure management practices.