GENERALIZED WATERSHED LOADING FUNCTIONS FOR STREAM FLOW NUTRIENTS1

ABSTRACT: Loading functions are proposed as a general model for estimating monthly nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes in stream flow. The functions have a simple mathematical structure, describe a wide range of rural and urban nonpoint sources, and couple surface runoff and ground water discharge. Rural runoff loads are computed from daily runoff and erosion and monthly sediment yield calculations. Urban runoff loads are based on daily nutrient accumulation rates and exponential wash off functions. Ground water discharge is determined by lumped parameter unsaturated and saturated zone soil moisture balances. Default values for model chemical parameters were estimated from literature values. Validation studies over a three-year period for an 850 km² watershed showed that the loading functions explained at least 90 percent of the observed monthly variation in dissolved and total nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes in stream flow. Errors in model predictions of mean monthly fluxes were: dissolved phosphorus - 4 percent; total phosphorus - 2 percent; dissolved nitrogen - 18 percent; and total nitrogen - 28 percent. These results were obtained without model calibration.     

Predicting phosphorus losses with the PLEASE model on a local scale in Denmark and the Netherlands

To reduce losses from agricultural soils to surface water, mitigation options have to be implemented as a local scale. For a cost-effective implementation of these measures, an instrument to identify critical areas for P leaching is indispensable. In many countries, P-index methods are used to identify areas as risk for P losses to surface water. In flat areas, where losses by leaching are dominant, these methods have their limitations because leaching is often not described in detail, PLEASE, is a simple mechanistic model designed to stimulate P Losses by leaching at the field scale using a limited amount of local field data. In this study, PLEASE, was applied to 17 lowland sites in Denmark and 14 lowland sites in the Netherlands. Results show that the simple model simulated measured fluxes and concentrations in water from pipe drains, suction cups, and groundwater quite well. The modeling efficiency ranged from 0.92 for modeling total-P fluxes to 0.36 fr modeling concentrations in groundwater. Poor results were obtained for heavy clay soils and eutrophic peat soils, where fluxes and concentration were strongly underestimated by the model. The poot performance for the heavy clay soil can be explained by the transport of P through macropores to the drain pipes and the underestimation of overland flow on this heavy-textured soil. In the eutrophic peat soils, fluxes were underestimated due to the release of P from deep soil layers.     

Nitrogen fluxes through unsaturated zones in five agricultural settings across the United States

The main physical and chemical controls on nitrogen (N) fluxes between the root zone and the water table were determined for agricultural sites in California, Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, and Washington from 2004 to 2005. Sites included irrigated and nonirrigated fields; soil textures ranging from clay to sand; crops including corn, soybeans, almonds, and pasture; and unsaturated zone thicknesses ranging from 1 to 22 m. Chemical analyses of water from lysimeters and shallow wells indicate that advective transport of nitrate is the dominant process affecting the flux of N below the root zone. Vertical profiles of (i) nitrogen species, (ii) stable isotopes of nitrogen and oxygen, and (iii) oxygen, N, and argon in unsaturated zone air and correlations between N and other agricultural chemicals indicate that reactions do not greatly affect N concentrations between the root zone and the capillary fringe. As a result, physical factors, such as N application rate, water inputs, and evapotranspiration, control the differences in concentrations among the sites. Concentrations of N in shallow lysimeters exhibit seasonal variation, whereas concentrations in lysimeters deeper than a few meters are relatively stable. Based on concentration and recharge estimates, fluxes of N through the deep unsaturated zone range from 7 to 99 kg ha(-1) yr(-1). Vertical fluxes of N in ground water are lower due to spatial and historical changes in N inputs. High N fluxes are associated with coarse sediments and high N application rates.     

Reducing Nitrogen Export from the Corn Belt to the Gulf of Mexico: Agricultural Strategies for Remediating Hypoxia

SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed models developed for the Upper Midwest were used to help evaluate the nitrogen‐load reductions likely to be achieved by a variety of agricultural conservation practices in the Upper Mississippi‐Ohio River Basin (UMORB) and to compare these reductions to the 45% nitrogen‐load reduction proposed to remediate hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Our results indicate that nitrogen‐management practices (improved fertilizer management and cover crops) fall short of achieving this goal, even if adopted on all cropland in the region. The goal of a 45% decrease in loads to the GoM can only be achieved through the coupling of nitrogen‐management practices with innovative nitrogen‐removal practices such as tile‐drainage treatment wetlands, drainage–ditch enhancements, stream‐channel restoration, and floodplain reconnection. Combining nitrogen‐management practices with nitrogen‐removal practices can dramatically reduce nutrient export from agricultural landscapes while minimizing impacts to agricultural production. With this approach, it may be possible to meet the 45% nutrient reduction goal while converting less than 1% of cropland in the UMORB to nitrogen‐removal practices. Conservationists, policy makers, and agricultural producers seeking a workable strategy to reduce nitrogen export from the Corn Belt will need to consider a combination of nitrogen‐management practices at the field scale and diverse nitrogen‐removal practices at the landscape scale.     

Modeling sediment and nitrogen export from a rural watershed in eastern Canada using the soil and water assessment tool

Watershed simulation models can be used to assess agricultural nonpoint-source pollution and for environmental planning and improvement projects. However, before application of any process-based watershed model, the model performance and reliability must be tested with measured data. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool version 2005 (SWAT2005) was used to model sediment and nitrogen loads from the Thomas Brook Watershed, which drains a 7.84 km rural landscape in the Annapolis Valley of Nova Scotia, Canada. The Thomas Brook SWAT model was comprised of 28 subbasins and 265 hydrologic response units, most of them containing agricultural land use, which is the main nonpoint nitrogen source in the watershed. Crop rotation schedules were incorporated into the model using field data collected within Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Watershed Evaluation of Beneficial Management Practices program. Model calibration (2004-2006) and validation (2007-2008) were performed on a monthly basis using continuous stream flow, sediment, and nitrogen export measurements. Model performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS) statistics. Study results show that the model performance was satisfactory (NSE > 0.4; > 0.5) for stream flow, sediment, nitrate-nitrogen, and total nitrogen simulations. Annual corn, barley, and wheat yields were also simulated well, with PBIAS values ranging from 0.3 to 7.2%. This evaluation of SWAT demonstrated that the model has the potential to be used as a decision support tool for agricultural watershed management in Nova Scotia.     

Nitrous oxide dynamics in a braided river system, New Zealand

Recently the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission factor EF5-r was revised downward to a value of 0.0025 kg N?O-N per kg NO?-N leached. It was not reduced further due to the continued uncertainty surrounding the dynamics of N?O in river systems. There have been few studies where river system N?O yields and fluxes have been measured. In this study, we examined the relationship between NO?-N and N?O-N fluxes at 10 sites along a braided river system (84 km) over a 397-d period. Isotopic analysis of NO?-N river water samples and the potential agricultural nitrogen (N) sources demonstrated that the NO?-N came from agricultural or sewage sources. Percent saturation of N?O varied with site and date (average, 114%) and correlated with river N?O-N concentrations. Modeled N?O fluxes (16-30 μg m(-2) h(-1)) from five sites were strongly related to river NO?-N concentrations ( r2 = 0.86). The modeled N?O-N fluxes ranged from 39 to 81% of the IPCC-derived emissions based on the NO?-N load in the river over 397 d and do not support further lowering of the EF5-r. Further in situ river studies are required to verify the N?O-N fluxes and the calculated gas transfer velocity values for these braided river systems.     

SIMULATING NITROGEN LOSSES FROM AGRICULTURAL LAND: IMPLICATIONS FOR WATER QUALITY AND PROTECTION POLICY1

ABSTRACT: EPIC, a soil erosion/plant growth simulation model, is used to simulate nitrogen losses for 120 randomly selected and previously surveyed cropland sites. Simulated nitrogen losses occur through volatilization, surface water and soil runoff, subsurface lateral flow, and leaching. Physical and crop management variables explain a moderate but significant proportion of the variation in nitrogen losses. Site slope and tillage have offsetting effects on surface and ground water losses. Nitrogen applications in excess of agronomic recommendations and manure obtained off the farm and applied to the sites are significant contributors to nitrogen losses. Farm characteristics such as production of confined livestock, total manure nitrogen available, and farm income per cropland acre explain a relatively large portion of the variability in manure nitrogen applied to survey sites. The results help to identify farm characteristics that can be used to target nutrient management programs. Simulation modeling provides a useful tool for investigating variables which contribute to agricultural nitrogen losses.     

Identifying Riparian Buffer Effects on Stream Nitrogen in Southeastern Coastal Plain Watersheds

Within the Southeastern (SE) Coastal Plain of the U.S., numerous freshwaters and estuaries experience eutrophication with significant nutrient contributions by agricultural non-point sources (NPS). Riparian buffers are often used to reduce agricultural NPS yet the effect of buffers in the watershed is difficult to quantify. Using corrected Akaike information criterion (AIC_c) and model averaging, we compared flow-path riparian buffer models with land use/land cover (LULC) models in 24 watersheds from the SE Coastal Plain to determine the ability of riparian buffers to reduce or mitigate stream total nitrogen concentrations (TNC). Additional models considered the relative importance of headwaters and artificial agricultural drainage in the Coastal Plain. A buffer model which included cropland and non-buffered cropland best explained stream TNC (R ² = 0.75) and was five times more likely to be the correct model than the LULC model. The model average predicted that current buffers removed 52 % of nitrogen from the edge-of-field and 45 % of potential nitrogen from the average SE Coastal Plain watershed. On average, 26 % of stream nitrogen leaked through buffered cropland. Our study suggests that stream TNC could potentially be reduced by 34 % if buffers were adequately restored on all cropland. Such estimates provide realistic expectations of nitrogen removal via buffers to watershed managers as they attempt to meet water quality goals. In addition, model comparisons of AIC_c values indicated that non-headwater buffers may contribute little to stream TNC. Model comparisons also indicated that artificial drainage should be considered when accessing buffers and stream nitrogen.     

Nitrogen in the Baltic Sea--policy implications of stock effects

We develop an optimal control model for cost-effective management of pollution, including two state variables, pollution stock and ecosystem quality. We apply it to Baltic Sea pollution by nitrogen leachates from agriculture. We present a sophisticated, non-linear model of leaching abatement costs, and a simple model of nitrogen stocks. We find that significant abatement is achievable at reasonable cost, despite the countervailing effects of existing agricultural policies such as price supports. Successful abatement should lead to lower nitrogen stocks in the sea in 5 years or less. However, the rate of ecosystem recovery is less certain. The results are highly dependent on the rate of self-cleaning of the Baltic Sea, and less so on the discount rate. Choice of target has a radical effect on the abatement path chosen. Cost-effectiveness demands such a choice, and should therefore be used with care when stock effects are present.     

GROUNDWATER DISCHARGE AND ITS IMPACT ON SURFACE WATER QUALITY IN A CHESAPEAKE BAY INLET1

ABSTRACT: Surface water, groundwater, and groundwater discharge quality surveys were conducted in Cherrystone Inlet, on Virginia's Eastern Shore. Shallow groundwater below agricultural fields had nitrate concentrations significantly higher than inlet surface waters and shallow groundwater underlying forested land. This elevated nitrate groundwater discharged to adjacent surface waters. Nearshore discharge rates of water across the sediment-water interface ranged from 0.02 to 3.69 liters·m^?2·hr^?1 during the surveys. The discharge was greatest nearshore at low tide periods, and decreased markedly with increasing distance offshore. Vertical hydraulic heads, E_h, and inorganic nitrogen flux in the sediments followed similar patterns. Nitrate was the predominant nitrogen species discharged nearshore adjacent to agricultural land use, changing to ammonium farther offshore. Sediment nitrogen fluxes were sufficient to cause observable impacts on surface water quality; nitrate concentrations were up to 20 times greater in areas of groundwater discharge than in the main stem inlet water. Based on DIN:DIP ratios, nitrogen contributions from direct groundwater discharge and tidal creek inputs appear to be of significant ecological importance. This groundwater discharge links land use activity and the quality of surface water, and therefore must be considered in selection of best management practices and water quality management strategies.     

EVALUATION OF Ann AGNPS NITROGEN LOADING IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Pollutants entering a water system can be very destructive to the health of that system. Best Management Practices (BMPs) are used to reduce these pollutants, but understanding the most effective practices is very difficult. Watershed models are an effective tool to aid in the decision‐making process of selecting the BMPs that are most effective in reducing the pollutant loading and are also the most cost effective. The Annualized Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution model (AnnAGNPS 2.0) is a technological tool that can be used to estimate watershed response to agricultural management practices. The main purpose of this paper is to test the performance of AnnAGNPS 2.0 on nitrogen loading using comparisons with measurements from the Deep Hollow watershed of the Mississippi Delta Management Systems Evaluation Area (MDMSEA) project. Previous work has demonstrated the capability of the model to simulate runoff and sediment. From sensitivity analyses in this study, initial nitrogen concentration in the soil and crop nitrogen uptake had the most impact on the nitrogen loadings. AnnAGNPS simulations of monthly nitrogen loadings are poor. However, statistical test (t‐test) showed that the predicted nitrogen loading is not significantly different from observed nitrogen loading at the 95 percent level of confidence.     

Comparison of DAYCENT-simulated and measured nitrous oxide emissions from a corn field

Accurate assessment of N(2)O emission from soil requires continuous year-round and spatially extensive monitoring or the use of simulation that accurately and precisely predict N(2)O fluxes based on climatic, soil, and agricultural system input data. DAYCENT is an ecosystem model that simulates, among other processes, N(2)O emissions from soils. The purpose of the study was to compare N(2)O fluxes predicted by the DAYCENT model to measured N(2)O fluxes from an experimental corn field in central Iowa. Soil water content temperature and inorganic N, simulated by DAYCENT were compared to measured values of these variables. Field N(2)O emissions were measured using four replicated automated chambers at 6-h intervals, from day of year (DOY) 42 through DOY 254 of 2006. We observed that DAYCENT generally accurately predicted soil temperature, with the exception of winter when predicted temperatures tended to be lower than measured values. Volumetric water contents predicted by DAYCENT were generally lower than measured values during most of the experimental period. Daily N(2)O emissions simulated by DAYCENT were significantly correlated to field measured fluxes; however, time series analyses indicate that the simulated fluxes were out of phase with the measured fluxes. Cumulative N(2)O emission calculated from the simulations (3.29 kg N(2)O-N ha(-1)) was in range of the measured cumulative N(2)O emission (4.26 +/- 1.09 kg N(2)O-N ha(-1)).     

氮肥形态对坡耕地雨季土壤养分流失的影响

为了明确氮肥形态对土壤养分流失通量及途径的影响,采用随机区组试验设计,利用模拟径流小区观测的方法,研究在地膜覆盖与不覆盖情况下氮肥形态对坡耕地雨季土壤养分流失通量及途径的影响。研究结果表明：壤中流氮、磷和钾的流失量分别占总径流流失量的71.30%、6.36%和8.85%,说明磷和钾流失的主要途径是地表径流,而氮流失的主要途径是壤中流,地膜覆盖降低酰胺态氮肥和缓控释肥处理氮素流失量,其中酰胺态氮肥处理地膜覆盖较不覆盖壤中流氮流失浓度和径流氮素流失量分别降低40.40%和29.32%。在无覆盖条件下,各处理径流氮素流失顺序表现为：酰胺态氮肥〉铵态氮肥〉缓控释肥〉硝态氮肥,施用硝态氮肥氮素流失量最低,较施用酰胺态氮肥氮素流失少40.86%。在地膜覆盖条件下,各处理径流中氮素流失顺序表现为：铵态氮肥〉酰胺态氮肥〉硝态氮肥〉缓控释肥,施用缓控释肥氮素流失量最低,较施用铵态氮肥氮素流失少59.60%。结果表明在四川紫色丘陵区为了有效控制水土养分流失,在肥料形态的选择上,以无覆盖条件下施用硝态氮肥较好,以地膜覆盖条件下施用缓控释肥较好。     

Role of Riparian Areas in Atmospheric Pesticide Deposition and Its Potential Effect on Water Quality

Riparian buffers are known to mitigate hydrologic losses of nutrients and other contaminants as they exit agricultural fields. The vegetation of riparian buffers can also trap atmospheric contaminants, and these pollutants can subsequently be delivered via rain to the riparian buffer floor. These processes, however, are poorly understood especially for pesticide residues. Therefore, we conducted a four‐year study examining stemflow and throughfall to a riparian buffer which was adjacent a cultured Zea mays field treated with atrazine and metolachlor. Stemflow is rain contacting the tree canopy traveling down smaller to larger branches and down the tree trunk, whereas throughfall is rain that may or may not contact leaves and branches and reaches the earth. Stemflow concentrations of the herbicides were larger than throughfall concentrations and accounted for 5‐15% of the atrazine and 6‐66% of the metolachlor depositional fluxes under the canopy. Larger depositional fluxes were measured when leaves were more fully emerged and temperatures and humidity were elevated. Rain collected outside the riparian buffer on the field side and on the back side revealed the trees trapped the herbicide residues. Herbicide loading to the riparian buffer stream was found to be linked to tree canopy deposition and subsequent washoff during rain events. These results indicate that in agricultural areas canopy washoff can be an important source of pesticides to surface waters.     

ESTIMATING MARYLAND CRITICAL AREA ACVS IMPACT ON FUTURE NONPOINT POLLUTION ALONG THE RHODE RWER ESTUARY1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of an investigation of the effects of the Maryland Critical Area Act on generation of non-point source loads of phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment to the Rhode River estuary. The Simple Method model, the Marcus and Kearney regression model, and the CREAMS model were used to estimate annual loads under: (1) present conditions, (2) maximum land use development allowable under the Act, and (3) two sets of future land use conditions that might occur if the Act were not in place. Results indicate that the Critical Area Act can reduce the present generation of nonpoint nutrient and sediment loadings 20–30 percent from the regulated area. These reductions can occur while preserving agricultural lands and allowing limited residential and urban development. The decrease in nutrient loadings is primarily dependent upon implementation and enforcement of agricultural best management practices (BMPs). The BMPs could reduce present agricultural nutrient loadings by 90 percent to a level comparable to loadings from residential areas. The estimated effectiveness of the Critical Area Act is even greater when compared to potential future nutrient loadings if development in the area remains unregulated. Unrestricted residential and urban development could increase nutrient loadings by 200 percent to 1000 percent as compared to controlled development under Critical Area Act guidelines. The Critical Area Act primarily prevents these future increases by severely limiting woodland cutting, with lesser results obtained by requiring urban BMPs.     

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment1

Shrestha, Rajesh R., Yonas B. Dibike, and Terry D. Prowse, 2011. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 74‐89. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00592.x Abstract: This paper presents a modeling study on climate‐induced changes in hydrologic and nutrient fluxes in the Upper Assiniboine catchment, located in the Lake Winnipeg watershed. The hydrologic and agricultural chemical yield model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to model a 21‐year baseline (1980‐2000) and future (2042‐2062) periods with model forcings for future climates derived from three regional climate models (RCMs) and their ensemble means. The modeled future scenarios reveal that potential future changes in the climatic regime are likely to modify considerably hydrologic and nutrient fluxes. The effects of future changes in climatic variables, especially precipitation and temperature, are clearly evident in the resulting snowmelt and runoff regimes. The future hydrologic scenarios consistently show earlier onsets of spring snowmelt and discharge peaks, and higher total runoff volumes. The simulated nutrient loads closely match the dynamics of the future runoff for both nitrogen and phosphorus, in terms of earlier timing of peak loads and higher total loads. However, nutrient concentrations could decrease due to the higher rate of runoff increase. Overall, the effects of these changes on the nutrient transport regime need to be considered together with possible future changes in land use, crop type, fertilizer application, and transformation processes in the receiving water bodies.     

Assessment of Eutrophication in Estuaries: Pressure–State–Response and Nitrogen Source Apportionment

A eutrophication assessment method was developed as part of the National Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment (NEEA) Program. The program is designed to improve monitoring and assessment of eutrophication in the estuaries and coastal bays of the United States with the intent to guide management plans and develop analytical and research models and tools for managers. These tools will help guide and improve management success for estuaries and coastal resources. The assessment method, a Pressure-State-Response approach, uses a simple model to determine Pressure and statistical criteria for indicator variables (where applicable) to determine State. The Response determination is mostly heuristic, although research models are being developed to improve that component. The three components are determined individually and then combined into a single rating. Application to several systems in the European Union (E.U.), specifically in Portugal, shows that the method is transferable, and thus is useful for development of management measures in both the Unites States and E.U. This approach identifies and quantifies the key anthropogenic nutrient input sources to estuaries so that management measures can target inputs for maximum effect. Because nitrogen is often the limiting nutrient in estuarine systems, examples of source identification and quantification for nitrogen have been developed for 11 coastal watersheds on the U.S. east coast using the WATERSN model. In general, estuaries in the Northeastern United States receive most of their nitrogen from human sewage, followed by atmospheric deposition. This is in contrast to some watersheds in the Mid-Atlantic (Chesapeake Bay) and South Atlantic (Pamlico Sound), which receive most of their nitrogen from agricultural runoff. Source identification is important for implementing effective management measures that should be monitored for success using assessment methods, as described herein. For instance, these results suggest that Northeastern estuaries would likely benefit most from improved sewage treatment, where as the Mid and South Atlantic systems would benefit most from agricultural runoff reductions.     

A SEDIMENT RESUSPENSION AND WATER QUALITY MODEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE1

ABSTRACT: The influence of sediment resuspension on the water quality of shallow lakes is well documented. However, a search of the literature reveals no deterministic mass-balance eutrophication models that explicitly include resuspension. We modified the Lake Okeechobee water quality model - which uses the Water Analysis Simulation Package (WASP) to simulate algal dynamics and phosphorus, nitrogen, and oxygen cycles - to include inorganic suspend. ed solids and algorithms that: (1) define changes in depth with changes in volume; (2) compute sediment resuspension based on bottom shear stress; (3) compute partition coefficients for ammonia and ortho-phosphorus to solids; and (4) relate light attenuation to solids concentrations. The model calibration and validation were successful with the exception of dissolved inorganic nitrogen species which did not correspond well to observed data in the validation phase. This could be attributed to an inaccurate formulation of algal nitrogen preference and/or the absence of nitrogen fixation in the model. The model correctly predicted that the lake is light-limited from resuspended solids, and algae are primarily nitrogen limited. The model simulation suggested that biological fluxes greatly exceed external loads of dissolved nutrients; and sediment-water interactions of organic nitrogen and phosphorus far exceed external loads. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that parameters affecting resuspension, settling, sediment nutrient and solids concentrations, mineralization, algal productivity, and algal stoichiometry are factors requiring further study to improve our understanding of the Lake Okeechobee ecosystem.     

Application of a Three-Dimensional Water Quality Model as a Decision Support Tool for the Management of Land-Use Changes in the Catchment of an Oligotrophic Lake

While expansion of agricultural land area and intensification of agricultural practices through irrigation and fertilizer use can bring many benefits to communities, intensifying land use also causes more contaminants, such as nutrients and pesticides, to enter rivers, lakes, and groundwater. For lakes such as Benmore in the Waitaki catchment, South Island, New Zealand, an area which is currently undergoing agricultural intensification, this could potentially lead to marked degradation of water clarity as well as effects on ecological, recreational, commercial, and tourism values. We undertook a modeling study to demonstrate science-based options for consideration of agricultural intensification in the catchment of Lake Benmore. Based on model simulations of a range of potential future nutrient loadings, it is clear that different areas within Lake Benmore may respond differently to increased nutrient loadings. A western arm (Ahuriri) could be most severely affected by land-use changes and associated increases in nutrient loadings. Lake-wide annual averages of an eutrophication indicator, the trophic level index (TLI) were derived from simulated chlorophyll a, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus concentrations. Results suggest that the lake will shift from oligotrophic (TLI = 2–3) to eutrophic (TLI = 4–5) as external loadings are increased eightfold over current baseline loads, corresponding to the potential land-use intensification in the catchment. This study provides a basis for use of model results in a decision-making process by outlining the environmental consequences of a series of land-use management options, and quantifying nutrient load limits needed to achieve defined trophic state objectives.     

Modeling the relationship between development and storm water and nutrient runoff

The EPA Storm Water Management Model was used to model the effects of urban and agricultural development on storm water runoff from uplands bordering a Louisiana swamp forest. Using this model, we examined the effects of changing land use patterns. By 1995 it is projected that urban land on the uplands bordering the swamp will increase by 321 percent, primarily at the expense of land currently in agriculture. Simulation results indicate that urbanization will cause storm water runoff rates to be up to 4.2 times greater in 1995 than in 1975. Nutrient runoff will increase 28 percent for nitrogen (N) and 16 percent for phosphorus (P) during the same period. The environmental effects of these changes in the receiving swamp forest are examined.