Bridging the gap between the field and the lab: Environmental goods,policy maker input,and consequentiality

This paper explores the criterion validity of stated preference methods through experimental referenda that capture key characteristics of a stated preference survey for a proposed environmental program. In particular, we investigate whether advisory referenda, where participant votes have either known or unknown weight in the policy decision, can elicit values comparable to that of a standard, incentive-compatible referendum. When participants regard their votes as consequential, our results suggest there is no elicitation bias with advisory referenda. For advisory referenda where participants view their votes as inconsequential, and for purely hypothetical referenda, we observe elicitation bias.     

Incentive compatibility tests of choice experiment value elicitation questions

This paper uses laboratory experiments with induced values to address fundamental issues related to the incentive compatibility of choice experiment value elicitation questions. In particular, we compare two- versus three-option choice sets and the effect of using alternative provision rules, including one where the outcome is influenced by both participant and “regulator” votes. We find the overall proportion of choices that are inconsistent with induced preferences is rather low. However, there are more deviations from induced preferences for two-option choice sets, and for alternatives to a simple plurality vote implementation rule. A multinomial probit analysis of choices in tandem with a mixed logit welfare analysis suggests there is a statistically significant but modest degree of bias towards selecting the status quo option.     

Value of time: Speeding behavior and gasoline prices

‘Value of Time’ (VOT) is a key parameter in economics and policy. This paper presents an alternative method to estimate VOT by analyzing an hourly dataset on drivers speeding behavior as a function of the gasoline price. Our identification strategy is novel as it is based on the intensive margin. In comparison, previous studies reveal VOT on the extensive margin, but choice alternatives have multiple attributes thereby potentially confounding estimates. Consistent with the range of the prior literature, we find a VOT of about 50% of the wage rate and analyze sources of bias from accidents and traffic tickets. These bias functions suggest that previous stated preference VOT estimates are likely downward whereas previous revealed preference estimates are likely upward biased.     

Alternative Non-market Value-Elicitation Methods: Are the Underlying Preferences the Same?

We advocate a more formal structural approach for comparing WTP for non-market or pre-test-market goods conveyed by fundamentally different preference elicitation mechanisms. Seven independent samples of respondents were asked to value the identical good. Elicitation methods include one actual purchase and six widely used hypothetical choice formats. Using a common underlying indirect utility function (and stochastic structure) allows data for different elicitation methods to be used independently, compared pair-wise (as in much of the earlier literature) or pooled across all samples in one unified model with heteroscedasticity across elicitation methods. Our differences in estimated WTP for the individual models are typical of earlier findings. However, pooled-data models that allow for heteroscedasticity reveal that while there are substantial differences in the amount of noise in the different samples, a common underlying systematic component of the preference structure cannot be rejected for at least four (and possibly five) of these seven elicitation methods.     

Disentangling the effects of policy and payment consequentiality and risk attitudes on stated preferences

Incentivizing respondents to truthfully reveal their preferences in stated preference surveys requires that they believe their survey responses can influence decisions related to the outcome in question (policy consequentiality) and that they will have to bear their share of the coercive cost if the outcome is implemented (payment consequentiality). We investigate the effects of these two aspects of perceived consequentiality on stated preferences in a field survey concerning renewable energy development in Poland. We find that beliefs in policy and payment consequentiality strengthen the respondents’ interest in having the project implemented. However, policy consequentiality decreases and payment consequentiality increases their sensitivity to the project cost, which, respectively, increases and decreases their willingness-to-pay for the project. We conclude that the two aspects of consequentiality should be addressed separately. Additionally, we inquire the theoretically speculated links between the respondents’ perceptions of policy and payment consequentiality and their risk attitudes, and we find no significant relationship.     

Willingness to Pay for Quality Improvements: Should Revealed and Stated Preference Data Be Combined?

In this article we propose theoretically consistent welfare measurement of use and nonuse values for an improvement in environmental quality with revealed and stated preference data. An analytical model based on the comparative static analysis of the variation function that describes the relationship between recreation demand and dichotomous choice contingent valuation models is estimated. Our results show that revealed and stated data should not be combined under the same assumed preference structure unless the two decisions imply the same change in behavior induced by the quality change. In addition, our results indicate scope effects in willingness to pay measures estimated with stated preference data.     

Cheap talk efficacy under potential and actual Hypothetical Bias: A meta-analysis

Cheap Talk (CT) is a common technique employed in stated preference methods of nonmarket valuation to reduce Hypothetical Bias (HB). However, multiple studies have documented its mixed usefulness. Using meta-analysis of 67 studies identified after reviewing over 400 articles, we first show the efficacy of CT while controlling for publication bias. We then investigate when CT is likely to be effective. Our results indicate that on average CT is significant in reducing estimated economic values by about 20% compared to the baseline treatment without implementing CT. Further analysis demonstrates that using CT in the context of public goods, using a budget/substitute reminder, and using CT in conjunction with other HB mitigation strategies improves its efficacy. In addition, we show that CT works better when the actual HB is larger thus one potential reason for previous studies failing to identify positive reduction in potential HB through CT may be because actual HB is small instead of CT being ineffective.     

An experimental investigation of explanations for inconsistencies in responses to second offers in double referenda

This paper demonstrates the potential for induced preference experiments to test previously unverified explanations of observed behavior in contingent valuation surveys. The NOAA Panel on Contingent Valuation called for experimental evidence on potential biases in the double referendum format. We test Carson, Groves, and Machina's (Incentives and informational properties of preference questions, Plenary address to the European Association of Resource and Environmental Economists, Oslo, Norway, June 1999) simple cost uncertainty and weighted averaging explanations of inconsistent responses to follow-up offers in such double referenda against a baseline of certainty and truthful preference revelation. The results find evidence to support the Weighted Average hypothesis. Results regarding the cost uncertainty hypothesis are more ambiguous and merit further investigation.     

Do exurban communities want more development?

Most land-use surveys of exurban residents focus on eliciting preferences for residential development and open space conservation. This article, in contrast, reports on a stated preference study of exurban residents that assesses the relative attractiveness of a variety of commercial and recreational land uses. Focus group participants and town planners proclaimed a demand for certain commercial services such as modern grocery stores and fine-dining restaurants, but survey respondents generally exhibit a strong preference for no additional development beyond the current rate of development. Results show that if additional development is to occur, then recreational services are generally preferred over more traditional commercial development. Combining two commercial services in a single development project are strongly preferred to stand-alone developments. Our approach illustrates how planners may uncover misconceptions about and priorities for land conversion through examining residents’ preferences.     

Social laterality in wild beluga whale infants: comparisons between locations, escort conditions, and ages

One of the important aspects of the animal social behavior is the laterality in perception of conspecifics. Spatial laterality in adult–infant interactions is usually revealed in primates as a cradling/holding bias in adults or nipple preference in infants. The origin and function of such biases, however, remain unclear. Here, we investigated spatial laterality in adult–infant pairs in beluga whales from two geographically distinct locations using aerial photography analysis. In addition, behavioral observations on individually identified mother–infant pairs at a belugas’ breeding aggregation were conducted to assess the infants’ age influence on the lateralization in pairs. A general preference of the calves to position themselves to the right of the accompanied adult was found. We failed to reveal any influence of geographical location, presence or relative position of other individuals escorting the adult–infant pair, and position of the calf along the body of the escorting adult. A significant right-sided bias in infants’ position was present in all age classes, but 2–6 months-old belugas were found to be stronger lateralized, than the newborns and 7–18 months-old calves. That may reflect age-related changes in infants’ motor and social behavior. We argue that the revealed laterality is associated with the calves’ left eye–right hemisphere preference in perceiving social stimuli, and we then discuss its possible advantages. Pronounced adult–infant spatial laterality in condition (unlike that seen in primates) when forelimbs do not directly determine subjects’ relative positioning suggests sensory lateralization alone to be the determining factor.     

Use of opportunistic sightings and expert knowledge to predict and compare Whooping Crane stopover habitat

Predicting a species’ distribution can be helpful for evaluating management actions such as critical habitat designations under the U.S. Endangered Species Act or habitat acquisition and rehabilitation. Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) are one of the rarest birds in the world, and conservation and management of habitat is required to ensure their survival. We developed a species distribution model (SDM) that could be used to inform habitat management actions for Whooping Cranes within the state of Nebraska (U.S.A.). We collated 407 opportunistic Whooping Crane group records reported from 1988 to 2012. Most records of Whooping Cranes were contributed by the public; therefore, developing an SDM that accounted for sampling bias was essential because observations at some migration stopover locations may be under represented. An auxiliary data set, required to explore the influence of sampling bias, was derived with expert elicitation. Using our SDM, we compared an intensively managed area in the Central Platte River Valley with the Niobrara National Scenic River in northern Nebraska. Our results suggest, during the peak of migration, Whooping Crane abundance was 262.2 (90% CI 40.2?3144.2) times higher per unit area in the Central Platte River Valley relative to the Niobrara National Scenic River. Although we compared only 2 areas, our model could be used to evaluate any region within the state of Nebraska. Furthermore, our expert‐informed modeling approach could be applied to opportunistic presence‐only data when sampling bias is a concern and expert knowledge is available.     

Estimating the Value of Non‐Use Benefits from Small Changes in the Provision of Ecosystem Services

Abstract: The unit of trade in ecosystem services is usually the use of a proportion of the parcels of land associated with a given service. Valuing small changes in the provision of an ecosystem service presents obstacles, particularly when the service provides non‐use benefits, as is the case with conservation of most plants and animals. Quantifying non‐use values requires stated‐preference valuations. Stated‐preference valuations can provide estimates of the public's willingness to pay for a broad conservation goal. Nevertheless, stated‐preference valuations can be expensive and do not produce consistent measures for varying levels of provision of a service. Additionally, the unit of trade, land use, is not always linearly related to the level of ecosystem services the land might provide. To overcome these obstacles, we developed a method to estimate the value of a marginal change in the provision of a non‐use ecosystem service—in this case conservation of plants or animals associated with a given land‐cover type. Our method serves as a tool for calculating transferable valuations of small changes in the provision of ecosystem services relative to the existing provision. Valuation is achieved through stated‐preference investigations, calculation of a unit value for a parcel of land, and the weighting of this parcel by its ability to provide the desired ecosystem service and its effect on the ability of the surrounding land parcels to provide the desired service. We used the water vole (Arvicola terrestris) as a case study to illustrate the method. The average present value of a meter of water vole habitat was estimated at UK£12, but the marginal value of a meter (based on our methods) could range between £0 and £40 or more.     

Who counts in evaluating the effects of air pollution policies on households? Non-market valuation in the presence of dependencies

Individuals who are likely to realize the largest benefits from improvements in air quality often depend on other members of their households to make time or monetary contributions to their care. The presence of these dependency relationships among household members poses challenges for benefit estimation since it is unlikely that the conditions necessary for recovering the underlying individual preferences from household choices are satisfied in this setting. We propose a conceptual framework that highlights the role of these dependencies in the choice models used to estimate the willingness to pay for environmental quality improvements. We design a complementary stated preference survey that describes hypothetical dependency relationships for household members of different ages to test the implications of our conceptual model. Respondents' stated choices take into account the proposed care-giving responsibilities for young children and teenagers but not for older adults.     

Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.     

Gender-specific starting point bias in choice experiments: Evidence from an empirical study

In this paper, we test whether preferences and willingness-to-pay estimates obtained in a Choice Experiment study are susceptible to starting point bias as is often the case in Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation studies. On the basis of a multinomial probit model, we find that preferences are indeed susceptible to starting point bias. In a split-sample design our results suggest that varying the price levels displayed in a so-called Instructional Choice Set presented prior to the actual preference eliciting choice sets, significantly impacts respondents’ preferences and willingness-to-pay for protecting Danish nature areas from new motorway development. In particular, our results show that the bias is gender-specific. Only female respondents are significantly affected. Results further reveal that the impact of the starting point bias decays as respondents evaluate more and more choice sets. This supports the Discovered Preference Hypothesis, and on the basis of this we suggest a number of ways to potentially mitigate the starting point bias.     

Weather,salience of climate change and congressional voting

Climate change is a complex long-run phenomenon. The speed and severity with which it is occurring is difficult to observe, complicating the formation of beliefs for individuals. We use Google search intensity data as a proxy for the salience of climate change and examine how search patterns vary with unusual local weather. We find that searches for “climate change” and “global warming” increase with extreme temperatures and unusual lack of snow. Furthermore, we demonstrate that effects of abnormal weather extend beyond search behavior to observable action on environmental issues. We examine the voting records of members of the U.S. Congress from 2004 to 2011 and find that members are more likely to take a pro-environment stance on votes when their home state experiences unusual weather.     

Does colour matter? The importance of colour in avoidance learning, memorability and generalisation

Aposematic species exploit the ability of predators to associate, for example, conspicuous colouration with the unprofitability of prey. We tested the importance of colour for avoidance learning, memory and generalisation in wild-caught great tits (Parus major). First, we determined the birds’ initial colour preferences for red, yellow, orange and grey artificial prey items. The birds showed some preferences, as they were more willing to eat grey prey as their first choice, but these were not strong preferences. We then trained birds to discriminate red, yellow or variable (red and yellow) signals from grey where colours signalled palatable and unpalatable food. In general, the birds learned the discrimination task equally well, irrespective of which colours signalled unpalatability, and subsequently remembered the distinction between previously palatable and previously unpalatable colours in the memorability test. We did not find strong evidence that variability in the signal affected learning or memory. Our results suggest that, in a task where birds must discriminate between palatable and unpalatable prey, it does not matter which specific colour signals unpalatability, although this might be context-dependent. To study whether training also affects responses to unconditioned stimuli, we included orange prey items in the memorability test. Although orange had been palatable in the initial preference test, the birds ate fewer orange prey items after they had been trained to avoid red, yellow or both colours (variable signal) as unpalatable prey, but did not change their preference when trained that these colourful signals were palatable. This indicates that generalisation occurred more readily after a negative experience than a positive experience, a situation that would potentially allow imperfect mimicry to occur.     

Tutor choice and imitation accuracy during song learning in a wild population of the Puget Sound white-crowned sparrow

Songbirds learn to sing by modeling their songs on the songs of other males through a process of social learning. Models of social learning predict that animals should be selective in what and when they learn. In this study, we asked whether young males in a wild population of the Puget Sound white-crowned sparrow, Zonotrichia leucophrys pugetensis, were selective in their choice of tutor models and what factors influenced how accurately they imitated tutors’ songs. We first examined two strategies for tutor choice: whether pupils have a conformity bias and/or a preference for high-quality tutors. In keeping with a conformity bias, tutors that sang song types that were relatively common within a radius of about 500 m of their territory were more likely to be imitated than were tutors that sang rarer song types. Most potential tutors were not imitated by pupils. Aspects of tutor quality, such as age, pairing status, and survival to the next year had no effect on whether a tutor’s song was imitated. Secondly, we tested whether pupil repertoire size, pupil quality, and local abundance of tutor models affected the accuracy of song imitations. We found a trade-off between repertoire size and tutor imitation accuracy with males that sang two or more song types developing significantly poorer imitations than males that sang one type. We discuss possible functions of a conformity learning strategy and factors that could produce a trade-off between imitation accuracy and repertoire size.     

Using unobtrusive sensors to measure and minimize Hawthorne effects: Evidence from cookstoves

People act differently when they know they are being observed. This phenomenon, the Hawthorne effect, can bias estimates of program impacts. Unobtrusive sensors substituting for human observation can alleviate this bias. To demonstrate this potential, we used temperature loggers to measure fuel-efficient cookstoves as a replacement for three-stone fires. We find a large Hawthorne effect: when in-person measurement begins, participants increase fuel-efficient stove use approximately three hours/day (53%) and reduce three-stone fire use by approximately two hours/day (29%). When in-person measurement ends, participants reverse those changes. We then examine how this Hawthorne effect biases estimates of fuel use and pollution concentrations. Our results reinforce concerns about Hawthorne effects, especially in policy-relevant impact evaluations. By measuring the Hawthorne effect we permit researchers to correct for the bias it introduces.     

Same stimuli,different responses: a pilot study assessing air pollution visibility impacts on emotional well-being in a controlled environment

● Emotional responses to visibility-reducing haze was assessed in a controlled lab. ● Valence and arousal have non-linear responses to pollution-caused low visibility. ● Repetitive exposure aggravates negative emotions in severely polluted conditions. ● Emotional bias to pollution relates with gender, decisiveness, attitude to clean air. A growing number of studies have shown that impaired visibility caused by particulate matter pollution influences emotional wellbeing. However, evidence is still scant on how this effect varies across individuals and over repetitive visual exposure in a controlled environment. Herein, we designed a lab-based experiment (41 subjects, 6 blocks) where participants were presented with real-scene images of 12 different PM_2.5 concentrations in each block. Emotional valence (negative to positive) and arousal (calm to excited) were self-rated by participants per image, and the response time for each rating was recorded. We find that as pollution level increases from 10 to 260 µg/m³, valence scores decrease, whereas arousal scores decline first and then bounce back, following a U-shaped trend. When air quality deteriorates, individual variability decreases in hedonic valence but increases in arousal. Over blocks, repetitive visual exposure increases valence at a moderate pollution level but aggravates negative emotions in severely polluted conditions (> 150 µg/m³). Finally, we find females, people who are slow in making responses, and those who are highly aroused by clean air tend to express more negative responses (so-called negativity bias) to ambient pollution than their respective counterparts. These results provide deeper insights into individual-level emotional responses to dirty air in a controlled environment. Although the findings in our pilot study should only be directly applied to the conditions assessed herein, we introduce a framework that can be replicated in different regions to assess the impact of air pollution on local emotional wellbeing.