我国海岸带灾害成因分析及减灾对策

近年来海岸带灾害越来越成为制约海岸带－我国最重要的经济带社会、经济和环境可持续发展的重要因素。本文在全球变化和人类活动影响的背景下,分析探讨了我国海岸带灾害的基本成因,并提出了相应的概念性减灾对策框架,海岸带生态环境的脆弱性,全球变化（相对海平面变化、气候异常）和人类活动是导致我国海岸带灾害的3个主要方面。据此,认为减灾的关键在于合理规范人类行为,保护和改善本已十分脆弱的海岸带生态环境,使人与自然界和谐相处;对于全球变化诱发的灾害,则力求基于科学认识与预测,在海岸带开发中合理规划建设,做到未雨绸缪,实现海岸带社会经济可持续发展。     

Successes and failures of compulsory risk mitigation: re‐evaluating the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool

The Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) is one of the best practices of public–private partnerships in an emerging market designed to reduce economic losses from disasters. This paper reviews the application of this compulsory mechanism along with data relating to the performance of the scheme following recent earthquakes in Turkey. We also consider the current perceptions of Turkish society towards the TCIP and how they can be enhanced. Our conclusions aim to assist stakeholders in government, homeowners, insurance companies, media, banks and civil society to appreciate the value of the system and key actions necessary to improve it.     

中国水旱灾害特点及水利减灾措施效果排序研究

改革开放以来,农村减灾防灾投入不断加强,水利减灾措施对农业发展做出了巨大贡献。特别是2011年中央进一步强调加强水利基础设施建设的重要作用,决定在"十二五"期间加大水利投资,新一轮的水利建设正在全国全面展开。为了更有效地发挥水利综合减灾措施的作用,合理地进行投入,科学配置各种水利减灾资源,必须了解和掌握灾害承受体如水库、堤防等的承灾能力状况,以指导我们合理安排水利减灾投入。应用灰色关联分析法对各个减灾措施的效果进行了排序分析,并据此提出了对今后投入调整的建议。     

Influencing resilience: the role of policy entrepreneurs in mainstreaming climate adaptation

One way to make development pathways more resilient in the face of a changing climate has been through mainstreaming adaptation into government policies, planning and sectoral decision‐making. To date, many of the transferable lessons have taken the form of technical approaches such as risk assessments and toolkits. This article instead draws on evidence from South Asia to emphasise some of the more tacit and informal approaches used to influence adaptation policy. Despite their apparent significance in policy processes, such tactics are often neither planned for nor well reported in resilience‐building projects and programme documents. Using evidence to populate a typology of influencing strategies, this article looks particularly at the role of policy entrepreneurs who navigate the political complexity of both formal and informal governance systems to promote successful adaptation mainstreaming. It concludes with recommendations for adaptation and resilience programming that can more effectively harness the breadth of influencing strategies.     

The role of the media in hazard mitigation and disaster management

The International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, which began in January 1990, will embrace efforts to reduce death, injury and property losses stemming from rapid-onset natural disasters. Our expanding science and technology base makes possible this concerted cooperative international effort, and communications is a central part of that effort — for public education, early warning, evacuation and coordination of post-disaster relief. Mass communication is inextricably entwined with disasters and hazard mitigation. Reflecting the public's great interest and concern, the electronic and print media extensively cover natural disasters and significantly affect how and what the public learns about and how it perceives natural hazards. Improving the linkages between the media and disaster-mitigation researchers and practitioners could prepare the public to act promptly on warnings, helping to mitigate disasters. This could also accelerate the shift of the societal emphasis from post-disaster relief toward pre-disaster initiatives.     

RS和GIS在滑坡泥石流防灾减灾中的应用

本文论述了遥感和地理信息系统在滑坡敏感性分析、可能性分析、风险分析以及在泥石流信息系统、泥石流危险度分析和泥石流预警等方面的应用,并展望了3S技术支持下的滑坡泥石流的预测、干涉测量合成孔径雷达在滑坡监测中的应用和防灾减灾决策支持系统等三个方面的前景.     

国道318线二郎山西口至康定县城沿线地质灾害发育特征及治理对策

在川藏公路关键段二郎山西口至康定县城长74km的范围内,共发育滑坡34处、崩塌33处、泥石流43处,其发育密度分别达0．46,0．44和0．58个（条）／km。分析表明,上述地质灾害的分布与该地所赋存的地形地貌、地持构造及岩性条件等密切相关。     

长江中游西部地区洪水灾害的历史演变——人文因素与当前趋势

探讨了近3000年来长江中游西部洪水灾害发展的人文因素。古代（3000—700aBP）人口较少,多择地势高的岗地居住,只有少数沿江城市需要堤防保护;长江干流洪水可多处分道散流,所携带泥沙导致云梦泽解体消亡。自宋代开始,低地筑垸围湖,与水争地,但九穴十三口畅通,洪水灾害不严重。明代（700—450a B P）几乎完全堵塞了荆江北流的穴口,荆北大堤联成一体,但堤防薄弱,出现过30次决口成灾。清代以来,随着人口激增,与水争地矛盾加剧,堤防加高培厚,使荆江河道洪水位大幅度上升,溃堤和溃坝洪水灾害较明代成倍出现。同时,历代的“舍南保北”政策迫使长江干流大洪水中过半水量与泥沙向南泄入洞庭湖,曾使洞庭湖面积扩至6000km^2,以后洞庭湖迅速淤积萎缩。1949至1985年间,人口又一次迅速增长,进一步加强围湖垦殖,大量通江湖泊面积萎缩。除1954和1998年那样人所共知的严重洪水灾害外,内涝渍水灾害也非常严重,人类与洪水的矛盾达到了顶点。改革开放后,尤其是三峡大坝的修建,极大地改变了长江中游的水文情势,工业化与城市化的迅猛发展,农村人口压力减轻,而21世纪初期降水相对较少,因此当前相当一段时间长江中游洪水灾害大为缓和。应抓住时机,总结经验,在人地和谐的现代水科学技术理念指导下,制定21世纪前半期,特别是2020年前的长江水利和水资源发展规划,促使人与洪水和谐共处。     

The consequences and policy implications of urban encroachment into flood-risk areas: the case of Ibadan

Urban encroachment on floodplains has exacerbated flood disasters owing to the reduction in the floodplain’s capacity to mitigate flooding, thereby bringing more settlements and people at flood risk. This study examined the consequences and policy implications of urban encroachment into Ibadan’s flood-risk areas. The survey-based study relied on primary and secondary data, with multistage sampling procedures selecting 15% of the flood-affected buildings in 2011, from which a structured questionnaire was administered to 402 households. The study revealed that the institutional arrangements with respect to responsibilities, regulations and control of urban floodplains were fragmented and non-participatory. At least 62% of all the affected buildings encroached into the statutory setbacks to rivers. Household property lost/damaged included domestic goods (75%), domestic animals and pets (60%), working instruments/machines (31%), the source of domestic water (34%) and vehicles (29%). Strong direct correlations were found between the urban and peri-urban communities in (1) the number of damaged/lost property and (2) the number of households that suffered health-related challenges. The paper recommends that the overall co-ordination of flood management activities be entrusted to an institution that can assume responsibility for legal, technical, administrative and financial matters related to urban planning and flood-risk management.     

The social impact of natural hazards: a multi‐level analysis of disasters and forms of trust in mainland China

This study aimed to assess the multi‐level effects of natural hazards on trust in Chinese society. Drawing on the Chinese General Social Survey conducted in 2012 and provincial disaster damage records, it examined the association between individuals’ past experiences of disasters and province‐level damage (measured by the number of affected people, deaths, and economic loss) and various forms of trust: in‐group; out‐group; generalised; and political. The findings indicate that Chinese individuals with experience of disasters have higher levels of out‐group trust but lower levels of political trust. Similarly, at the province level, damage owing to disasters over the past three years (2009–11) positively impacted on residents’ out‐group trust while negatively affecting their political trust. However, when provincial damage was aggregated for disasters over the past five years (2007–11), which included the devastating Sichuan earthquake on 12 May 2008, only total deaths had a positive effect on generalised trust.     

生物资源在害虫防治中的减灾作用和开发对策

论述了害虫防治中的丰富生物资源,讨论了生物资源在农业减灾作用中具有良好社会、经济和生态效益及开发潜力,提出了开发利用的对策。     

Strengthening the role of science and technology in disaster risk reduction: the Chilean strategy

This paper presents an integrative case study of Chile's national strategy of research, development, and innovation (R&D+i) for disaster resilience and progress towards developing the institutional conditions necessary for its successful implementation. The paper covers the period between 2016 and 2021, concentrating on the work of the Chilean Commission of R&D+i for Resilience to Disasters of Natural Origin (CREDEN). Through an analysis of the official records of the initiative at all of its stages, and 29 semi-structured interviews with CREDEN members and stakeholders, we aim to present a successful example of strengthening the role of science and technology in disaster risk reduction. Chile's experience is particularly interesting because its strategy focused on R&D+i and proposed developing an industry of scientific-based technological solutions for disaster resilience. The study also illustrates how strategic interaction between academia, state, and industry can be a key factor in aligning knowledge production to tackle current socio-technical challenges.     

The long-term impact of a man-made disaster: An examination of a small town in the aftermath of the Three Mile Island Nuclear Reactor Accident

This paper explores the long-term effects of a nuclear accident on residents' perceptions of their physical and mental health, their trust of public officials, and their attitudes toward the future risks of nuclear power generation In their community. We find that in the period after the accident at Three Mile Island that there are constant or Increasing levels of distress reported by community residents. We conclude that the effects of a technological disaster may often be more enduring than those natural disaster and that greater research efforts should be made to Investigate the long-term consequences of man-made catastrophies of all types.     

The urban poor in Dhaka City: their struggles and coping strategies during the floods of 1998

Bangladesh experienced one of the worst floods in recorded history in 1998. This paper focuses on the needs and coping strategies of the urban poor in Dhaka City, which had been very badly affected. The city's roads were completely under water, and most areas were water-logged with drainage and sewage systems blocked. Rising water levels compelled many slum dwellers to move to temporary shelters and relief camps. Women and children were the worst affected. The lack of sanitation facilities and privacy forced women and children to defecate in their own homes. There was an acute scarcity of safe drinking-water, and food prices rose dramatically. Diarrhoea, fever and colds were the most common illnesses affecting the poor. The floods left many of them unemployed, and in some families, the result was increased tension and incidents of domestic violence. In some areas, members felt pressured to repay micro-credit loans. Most NGOs, however, suspended loan repayments. During this period, a committee was set up to co-ordinate and work towards addressing some of the main post-flood problems.     

湖北省地质灾害的特点、机制及其减灾对策

湖北省地质灾害具有“灾害种类多、灾情重、时空分布不匀且有逐年加重的趋势”。本文根据对岩石圈系统、大气圈系统与人类社会圈系统的研究，针对防灾减灾，指出应加强三个方面的工作：①多种灾害并案研究、并案治理；②科学规划、重点研究，分阶段治理；③利用新技术、新手段，建设“群测群防”监测、预报信息化网络。     

The politics of protection: aid, human rights discourse, and power relations in Kyaka II settlement, Uganda

This paper explores the conceptualisation and application of 'protection' by the United Nations High Commissioner (UNHCR), Ugandan government, and Congolese refugees in Kyaka II refugee settlement, Uganda. Analysing the origins and consequences of a demonstration against school fees, and drawing on other ethnographic data, it explores how different interpretations of this incident reflect different conceptions of, and approaches to, protection. Ugandan government officials viewed the demonstration as a security incident; Congolese and Ugandan adults responded with increased monitoring and 'sheltering' of children and young people; students justified the demonstration as a legitimate manifestation of their rights; while UNHCR promoted assistance and resettlement. The paper argues that prevailing protection responses, including 'sensitisation', sheltering, and resettlement, are de-contextualised from daily realities and fail to address the underlying power relations that undermine protection. It concludes with recommendations on how international refugee agencies can reorient assistance to address protection concerns in refugee contexts.     

温带风暴潮灾害链的识别与区分--以莱州湾风暴潮为例

我国温带风暴潮灾害主要集中在渤海、黄海沿岸,其中莱州湾沿岸是频繁发生的重灾区。以识别莱州湾沿岸发生的温带风暴潮灾害链的组成为研究目标,通过2次典型灾害事件分析了温带风暴潮灾害的成因、发生及其演化规律等问题,进而识别了温带风暴潮灾害链发生过程中的灾害类别及相应致灾因子,根据致灾过程提出了5种灾害链条,最后区分了不同行业灾害损失中主要致灾因子的作用。研究结果可对温带风暴潮灾害链的预警及减灾工作提供决策支持。     

The role of the organisational psychologist in disasters and emergency situations

Interventions in extreme situations, such as natural or technological disasters, terrorist attacks or emergencies in general, take place in settings of great uncertainty and are always accompanied by extraordinary circumstances. For this reason, there are various processes related to implementing intervention protocols that must be carefully examined, including an evaluation of work scenarios, personnel selection, within-group relationships in work teams, decision-making processes, or certain peculiarities of burnout among emergency personnel. In the view of this author, an ad hoc review of the role of the organisational psychologist can highlight interesting analysis and performance possibilities that could make work in emergency and disasters contexts more effective. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the role of the organisational psychologist pre-and post-disaster. Furthermore, it supports the idea that professional profiles must be designed that take into account specific knowledge and skills, as well as certain aptitudes and values.     

西南某水电站坝肩堆积体基本特征及稳定性研究

研究下红岩堆积体的稳定性对拟建水电站大坝和附属水力设施的布置和安全有着重要的意义。本文在深入分析该堆积体基本特征的基础上,以地形地貌、变形破坏迹象及物质组成特征的差异性为依据,对其进行了工程地质分区;在此基础上,对该堆积体成因及今后变形机理进行了论述,重点分析影响堆积体稳定性的诱发因素;最后采用极限平衡法计算了堆积体整体(分区)以及局部稳定性。计算结果为分析目前堆积体的稳定状况及预测其可能造成的工程危害性提供了评价基础。     

The role of natural disaster in individual and relational adjustment in Sri Lankan mothers following the 2004 tsunami

The purpose of this study is to examine the associations between maternal mental health distress symptoms, including depression and post‐traumatic stress disorder, the extent to which the presence of a child's disaster‐related physical health problem(s) have interfered with daily functioning, and family cohesion over time among Sri Lankan mothers who survived the tsunami on 26 December 2004. Study variables were measured using a self‐report questionnaire administered approximately four months after the event and three years later in summer 2008. Univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses were conducted. Path analysis was employed to assess the relationships between the key variables over time and the correlations in the study variables at each time point. Among other findings, the results of the path analysis indicated that post‐traumatic stress symptom distress four months after the disaster significantly predicted variance in family cohesion three years later. Clinical and empirical research implications are presented and discussed.