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1.
Multimetric indices (MMIs) are routinely used by federal, state, and tribal entities to assess the quality of aquatic resources. Because of their diversity, abundance, ubiquity, and sensitivity to environmental stress, benthic macroinvertebrates are well suited for MMIs. West Virginia has used a statewide family-level stream condition index (WVSCI) since 2002. We describe the development, validation, and application of a geographically- and seasonally partitioned genus-level index of most probable stream status (GLIMPSS) for West Virginia wadeable streams. Natural classification strata were evaluated with reference site communities using mean similarity analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination. Forty-one metrics spanning six ecological categories (richness, composition, tolerance, dominance, trophic groups, and habits) were evaluated for sensitivity, responsiveness, redundancy, range and variability across seasonal (spring and summer) and regional (mountains and plateau) strata. Through a step-wise metric selection process, 8–10 metrics were aggregated to comprise four stratum-specific GLIMPSS models (mountain/plateau and spring/summer). A comparison of GLIMPSS with WVSCI exhibited marked improvements where GLIMPSS detecting greater stream impacts. A variation of the GLIMPSS, which differs only in the family-level taxonomic identification of Chironomidae (GLIMPSS (CF)), was comparable to the full GLIMPSS. These MMIs are robust yet practical tools for evaluating impacts to water quality, instream and riparian habitat, and aquatic wildlife in wadeable riffle-run streams based on sensitivity, responsiveness, precision, and independent validation. These models may be used effectively to detect degradation of the naturally occurring benthic community, assess causes of biological degradation, and plan and evaluate remediation of damaged stream ecosystems.  相似文献   

2.
The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR), with support from the U.S. EPA, conducted an assessment of wadeable streams in the Driftless Area ecoregion in western Wisconsin using a probabilistic sampling design. This ecoregion encompasses 20% of Wisconsin’s land area and contains 8,800 miles of perennial streams. Randomly-selected stream sites (n = 60) equally distributed among stream orders 1–4 were sampled. Watershed land use, riparian and in-stream habitat, water chemistry, macroinvertebrate, and fish assemblage data were collected at each true random site and an associated “modified-random” site on each stream that was accessed via a road crossing nearest to the true random site. Targeted least-disturbed reference sites (n = 22) were also sampled to develop reference conditions for various physical, chemical, and biological measures. Cumulative distribution function plots of various measures collected at the true random sites evaluated with reference condition thresholds, indicate that high proportions of the random sites (and by inference the entire Driftless Area wadeable stream population) show some level of degradation. Study results show no statistically significant differences between the true random and modified-random sample sites for any of the nine physical habitat, 11 water chemistry, seven macroinvertebrate, or eight fish metrics analyzed. In Wisconsin’s Driftless Area, 79% of wadeable stream lengths were accessible via road crossings. While further evaluation of the statistical rigor of using a modified-random sampling design is warranted, sampling randomly-selected stream sites accessed via the nearest road crossing may provide a more economical way to apply probabilistic sampling in stream monitoring programs.  相似文献   

3.
The relationship between benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages and cattle density was assessed from fall 2002 through spring 2004 in five small streams that represented a gradient of cattle grazing intensity. All study stream reaches were in pasture with no woody riparian vegetation, but varied in the intensity of cattle grazing (0 cattle ha−1 at site 1 to 2.85 cattle ha−1 at site 5). Regression analysis indicated highly significant and strong macroinvertebrate metric responses to cattle density during most sampling periods. The majority of metrics responded negatively to increased grazing, while a few (total taxa richness, number of sensitive taxa, and % collector filterers) increased along the gradient before declining at the most heavily grazed sites. Total number of sensitive taxa and % Coleoptera had the strongest relationship with cattle density throughout the study period. During some sampling periods, nearly 80% of the variation in these metrics was explained by cattle density. The elmid beetle, Oulimnius, had a particularly strong negative response to the grazing gradient. Study site groupings based on taxa composition, using detrended correspondence analysis (DCA), indicated that benthic samples collected from the reference site and light rotational grazing site were more similar in macroinvertebrate taxa composition than samples collected from the intermediate grazing and heavy grazing sites. Our findings demonstrate that biological integrity, as measured by benthic macroinvertebrate metrics and assemblage composition, is highly related to cattle density in small streams in the Blue Ridge mountains, Virginia, USA. This suggests that the degree of agricultural intensity should be given consideration in stream assessments, as well as land use planning and regulatory decisions.  相似文献   

4.
A procedure to select the most relevant metrics for assessing the ecological condition of the Douro basin (north Portugal) was developed based upon a set of 184 benthic community metrics. They were grouped into 16 biological categories selected from literature using data collected over 2 years from 54 sites along 31 rivers covering the whole perceived range of human disturbance. Multivariate analyses were carried out to identify the main trends in the macroinvertebrate data, to select reference versus impaired sites, to avoid multicolinearity between metrics, and to identify those that were clearly independent from natural stream typology. Structural metrics, adaptation metrics, and tolerance measures most effectively responded across a range of human influence. We find these attributes to be ecologically sound for monitoring Portugal’s lotic ecosystems and providing information relevant to the Water Framework Directive, which asserts that the definition of water quality depends on its “ecological status”, independent of the actual or potential uses of those waters.  相似文献   

5.
为支撑流域水生态目标的业务化管理,提高水生态监测和评价的可操作性,突破物种分类鉴定的技术瓶颈,以大型底栖无脊椎动物为研究对象,在江苏省太湖流域布设120个采样点,于2013年1—3月、7—8月和10—11月开展3次监测。以最小干扰为参照状态,对涉及物种丰度、物种多度组成、耐污能力和摄食类群的72个候选指数进行分布范围、判别能力及相关性分析,结合指数获取的便利性及物种分类的难易程度,最终筛选出3个核心指数构成大型底栖无脊椎动物完整性业务化评价指数,其中湖荡、河流和水库的指数为软体动物分类单元数、优势分类单元相对多度和BMWP指数,溪流的指数为ETO分类单元数、前三位优势分类单元相对多度和BMWP指数。经验证,业务化指数与环境梯度有较好的响应关系,且可操作性强,具备开展业务化应用的前景。但目前的流域水生态目标管理尚处于摸索阶段,技术体系还须在业务化过程中不断修正和完善。  相似文献   

6.
In the Wei River basin, the ecosystem is gradually deteriorating due to the rapid growth of the population and the development of economies. It is thus important to assess the ecosystem health and take measures to restore the damaged ecosystem. In this study, an index of biotic integrity (IBI) for fish was developed to aid the conservation of the ecosystem based on a calibration data set. An index of water and habitat quality (IWHQ) was calculated based on environmental variables and habitat quality (QHEI) to identify the environmental degradation in the studied sites. The least degraded sites (IWHQ?≤?2; W1, W5, W10, W12, W13, W14, and W16) were chosen as the reference sites. Six metrics that are sensitive to environmental degradation were utilized to differentiate the reference and the impaired sites using statistical methods. These metrics included the number of species (P1), the total biomass (P2), the number of Cobitidae species (P8), the proportion of species in the middle and low tiers (P10), the proportion of individuals that were classified as sensitive species (P25), and number of individuals in the sample (P39). A continuous scoring method was used to score the six metrics, and four classes were defined to characterize the ecosystem health of the Wei River basin. The fact that the overall IBI scores were negatively correlated with the index of environmental quality (IWHQ) based on the validation data set indicated that the index should be useful for biomonitoring and the conservation of biodiversity. According to the results, more than half of the sites were classified as poor or very poor. The ecosystem health in the Wei River was better than that in the Jing River and the Beiluo River, and this study will be a great reference for water resources management and ecosystem restoration in the Wei River basin.  相似文献   

7.
The primary goal of this study was to characterize physical habitat and benthic communities (macroinvertebrates) in the Stanislaus, Tuolumne and Merced Rivers in California’s San Joaquin Valley in 2003. These rivers have been listed as impaired water bodies (303 (d) list) by the State of California due to the presence of organophosphate (OP) insecticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon, Group A pesticides (i.e., organochlorine pesticides), mercury, or unknown toxicity. Based on 10 instream and riparian physical habitat metrics, total physical habitat scores in the Stanislaus River ranged from 124 to 188 (maximum possible total score is 200). The highest total habitat score was reported at the upstream site. Tuolumne River physical habitat scores ranged from 86 to 167. Various Tuolumne River physical habitat metrics, including total habitat score, increased from downstream to upstream in this river. Merced River physical habitat scores ranged from 121 to 170 with a significant increase in various physical habitat metrics, including total habitat score, reported from downstream to upstream. Channel flow (an instream metric) and bank stability (a riparian metric) were the most important physical habitat metrics influencing the various benthic metrics for all three rivers. Abundance measures of benthic macroinvertebrates (5,100 to 5,400 individuals) were similar among the three rivers in the San Joaquin watershed. Benthic communities in all three rivers were generally dominated by: (1) Baetidae species (mayflies) which are a component of EPT taxa generally considered sensitive to environmental degradation; (2) Chironomidae (midges) which can be either tolerant or sensitive to environmental stressors depending on the species; (3) Ephemerellidae (mayflies) which are considered sensitive to pollution stress; and (4) Naididae (aquatic worms) which are generally considered tolerant to environmental stressors. The presence of 117 taxa in the Stanislaus River, 114 taxa in the Tuolumne River and 96 taxa in the Merced River implies that the benthic communities in these streams are fairly diverse but without a clear definition of benthic community expectations it is unknown if these water bodies are actually impaired.  相似文献   

8.
Managers of aquatic resources benefit from indices of habitat quality that are reproducible and easy to measure, demonstrate a link between habitat quality and biota health, and differ between human-impacted (i.e., managed) and reference (i.e., nonimpacted or minimally impacted) conditions. The instability index (ISI) is an easily measured index that describes the instability of a streambed by relating the tractive force of a stream at bankfull discharge to the median substrate size. Previous studies have linked ISI to biological condition but have been limited to comparisons of sites within a single stream or among a small number of streams. We tested ISI as an indicator of human impact to habitat and biota in mountain streams of the northwestern USA. Among 1428 sites in six northwestern states, ISI was correlated with other habitat measures (e.g., residual pool depth, percent fine sediment) and indices of biotic health (e.g., number of intolerant macroinvertebrate taxa, fine sediment biotic index) and differed between managed and reference sites across a range of stream types and ecoregions. While ISI could be useful in mountain streams throughout the world, this index may be of particular interest to aquatic resource managers in the northwestern USA where a large dataset, from which ISI can be calculated, exists.  相似文献   

9.
Based upon ecological data provided by a 6-year study of native species assemblage structure and function in near-pristine Limahuli Stream (Kauai), The Hawaii Stream Index of Biological Integrity (HS-IBI) incorporates 11 metrics covering five ecological categories (taxonomic richness, sensitive species, reproductive capacity, trophic–habitat capacity, and tolerance capacity). The HS-IBI was shown to effectively distinguish stream biological condition on a continuum from undisturbed (near-pristine) to severely impaired in sampling of 39 sites (6 estuarine reaches) on 18 Hawaiian streams located on all major islands. A significant relationship was validated between relative levels of human impact occurring within-watersheds (determined through use of a landscape indicator) and IBI ratings with metrics responding predictably to gradients of human influence. For management interpretation of HS-IBI results, a framework comprised of five “integrity classes” (excellent–good–fair–poor–impaired) is provided which can be used to operationalize HS-IBI results obtained through standardized sampling of stream sites that “…translates into a verbal and visual portrait of biological condition.” Through its focus on native species, the HS-IBI incorporates evolutionary and biogeographic variation for the region with biological expectations based upon reference condition benchmarks established in near-pristine stream environments where ecological functioning is naturally self-sustaining and resilient to normal environmental variation. The methods and tools described in this study are appropriate for application in all perennial streams in Hawaii and may be adapted for use in streams on other tropical Pacific islands where native species assemblages persist in near-pristine stream environments.  相似文献   

10.
Thailand currently lacks formal bioassessment approaches and protocols to assist management decisions for water quality. The aim of this research is to develop a practical method of rapid bioassessment for a professional level by using benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages for streams in Thailand. Eleven reference and nine test sites were sampled in the headwater streams of the Loei River and adjacent areas to explore the development of a practical protocol. Specific physico-chemical parameters were selected to provide ecological information supplemental to the biological indicators. The biological research was designed around the USEPA Rapid Bioassessment Protocols (RBPs) using the multi-habitat approach. Four fixed-count subsamplings (100, 200, 300 and 500 organisms) were randomly conducted using a standardized gridded pan to evaluate an appropriate level for bioassessment in Thai streams. A 300 organism subsample is adequate for bioassessment purposes in Thai stream (evaluated by calculating dissimilarity values and ordination techniques). A systematic selection of candidate reference sites, metric selection, and index calibration was part of this research. Multimetric and multivariate analyses were examined as a foundation for bioassessment in Thailand. The multimetric approach appears to be more practical for a rapid bioassessment technique. Nine core metrics were identified for biological index score including number of total taxa, Diptera taxa, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera, and Coleoptera taxa, (%) Plecoptera, (%) Tolerant organisms, Beck's Biotic Index, (%) Intolerant organisms, Shredders taxa and Clingers taxa were calibrated for the final index. As a result of multimetric and multivariate analyses, family level identification data effectively discriminated reference condition and broad-scale environmental gradients. Hampered by incomplete taxonomic knowledge of benthic macroinvertebrates in Thailand, family-level identification may be sufficient taxonomic resolution for rapid bioassessment in Thailand.  相似文献   

11.
The sensitivity of eleven metrics using macroinvertebrate assemblages were evaluated in an environmental gradient in a tropical river in south-east Brazil. Eight sites were sampled in an altitudinal range of 160–650 m.a.s.l. during 1999 (April and August) and 2000 (February). Four substrates were sampled at each site: riffle litter, pool litter, stony substrates and sediment. Correspondence Analysis indicated that assemblages were primarily more influenced by physical changes (like deforestation and erosion processes) than the water chemistry. The sensitivity of each metric was evaluated through the application of box-and-whisker plot method by its power to assess impairment (metrics should be able to discriminate reference sites from impaired sites) and natural variability (metrics should not discriminate two reference sites). Metrics that failed in at least one of the above premises were not considered as sensitive. In this study, the most sensitive metrics were Shannon index, BMWP-ASPT, %_EPT, and relative abundance of EPT to Chironomidae.  相似文献   

12.
Watershed-Based Survey Designs   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Watershed-based sampling design and assessment tools help serve the multiple goals for water quality monitoring required under the Clean Water Act, including assessment of regional conditions to meet Section 305(b), identification of impaired water bodies or watersheds to meet Section 303(d), and development of empirical relationships between causes or sources of impairment and biological responses. Creation of GIS databases for hydrography, hydrologically corrected digital elevation models, and hydrologic derivatives such as watershed boundaries and upstream–downstream topology of subcatchments would provide a consistent seamless nationwide framework for these designs. The elements of a watershed-based sample framework can be represented either as a continuous infinite set defined by points along a linear stream network, or as a discrete set of watershed polygons. Watershed-based designs can be developed with existing probabilistic survey methods, including the use of unequal probability weighting, stratification, and two-stage frames for sampling. Case studies for monitoring of Atlantic Coastal Plain streams, West Virginia wadeable streams, and coastal Oregon streams illustrate three different approaches for selecting sites for watershed-based survey designs.  相似文献   

13.
Our premise is that measures of ecological indicators and habitat conditions will vary between reference standard sites and reference sites that are impacted, and that these measures can be applied consistently across a regional gradient in the form of a Regional Index of Biological Integrity (RIBI). Six principles are proposed to guide development of any RIBI: 1) biological communities with high integrity are the desired endpoints; 2) indicators can have a biological, physical, or chemical basis; 3) indicators should be tied to specific stressors that can be realistically managed; 4) linkages across geographic scales and ecosystems should be provided; 5) reference standards should be used to define target conditions; and 6) assessment protocols should be efficiently and rapidly applied. To illustrate how a RIBI might be developed, we show how four integrative bioindicators can be combined to develop a RIBI for forest riparian ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic states: 1) macroinvertebrate communities, 2) amphibian communities, 3) avian communities, and 4) avain productivity, primarily for the Louisiana waterthrush (Seirius motacilla). By providing a reliable expression of environmental stress or change, a RIBI can help managers reach scientifically defensible decisions.  相似文献   

14.
Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to identify potential reference sites for wadeable stream monitoring, and multivariate analyses were applied to test whether invertebrate communities reflected a priori spatial and stream type classifications. We identified potential reference sites in segments with unmodified vegetation cover adjacent to the stream and in >85% of the upstream catchment. We then used various landcover, amenity and environmental impact databases to eliminate sites that had potential anthropogenic influences upstream and that fell into a range of access classes. Each site identified by this process was coded by four dominant stream classes and seven zones, and 119 candidate sites were randomly selected for follow-up assessment. This process yielded 16 sites conforming to reference site criteria using a conditional-probabilistic design, and these were augmented by an additional 14 existing or special interest reference sites. Non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS) analysis of percent abundance invertebrate data indicated significant differences in community composition among some of the zones and stream classes identified a priori providing qualified support for this framework in reference site selection. NMS analysis of a range standardised condition and diversity metrics derived from the invertebrate data indicated a core set of 26 closely related sites, and four outliers that were considered atypical of reference site conditions and subsequently dropped from the network. Use of GIS linked to stream typology, available spatial databases and aerial photography greatly enhanced the objectivity and efficiency of reference site selection. The multi-metric ordination approach reduced variability among stream types and bias associated with non-random site selection, and provided an effective way to identify representative reference sites.  相似文献   

15.
利用生物完整性指数评价河流健康状态,对于水环境管理决策具有重要的实践意义。基于大型底栖动物构建生物完整性指数(B-IBI),并评价松花江流域的水生态系统健康状况。在松花江主要干支流设定37个采样点,分别于2016年6、9月进行环境因子和大型底栖动物调查研究。最终从28个候选参数中确定了种类总数、摇蚊种类数、敏感种百分比、Hilsenhoff指数、Marglef指数作为核心参数构建B-IBI。通过0~10赋分法,计算得到了松花江流域全部采样点的生物完整性评价得分。结果显示,松花江流域内60%区域生物状态存在不同程度的损害。另外,B-IBI能够综合反映松花江大型底栖动物群落多样性、生境质量、理化水质等,具有一定的适用性。  相似文献   

16.
Investigating relationships of benthic invertebrates and sedimentation is challenging because fine sediments act as both natural habitat and potential pollutant at excessive levels. Determining benthic invertebrate sensitivity to sedimentation in forested headwater streams comprised of extreme spatial heterogeneity is even more challenging, especially when associated with a background of historical and intense watershed disturbances that contributed unknown amounts of fine sediments to stream channels. This scenario exists in the Chattahoochee National Forest where such historical timber harvests and contemporary land-uses associated with recreation have potentially affected the biological integrity of headwater streams. In this study, we investigated relationships of sedimentation and the macroinvertebrate assemblages among 14 headwater streams in the forest by assigning 30, 100-m reaches to low, medium, or high sedimentation categories. Only one of 17 assemblage metrics (percent clingers) varied significantly across these categories. This finding has important implications for biological assessments by showing streams impaired physically by sedimentation may not be impaired biologically, at least using traditional approaches. A subsequent multivariate cluster analysis and indicator species analysis were used to further investigate biological patterns independent of sedimentation categories. Evaluating the distribution of sedimentation categories among biological reach clusters showed both within-stream variability in reach-scale sedimentation and sedimentation categories generally variable within clusters, reflecting the overall physical heterogeneity of these headwater environments. Furthermore, relationships of individual sedimentation variables and metrics across the biological cluster groups were weak, suggesting these measures of sedimentation are poor predictors of macroinvertebrate assemblage structure when using a systematic longitudinal sampling design. Further investigations of invertebrate sensitivity to sedimentation may benefit from assessments of sedimentation impacts at different spatial scales, determining compromised physical habitat integrity of specific taxa and developing alternative streambed measures for quantifying sedimentation.  相似文献   

17.
We conducted an aquatic macroinvertebrate assessment in the channelized reach of the lower Missouri River, and used statistical analysis of individual metrics and multimetric scores to identify community response patterns and evaluate relative biological condition. We examined longitudinal site differences that are potentially associated with water qualityrelated factors originating from the Kansas City metropolitan area, using data from coarse rock substrate in flowing water habitats (outside river bends), and depositional mud substratein slack water habitats (dike fields). Three sites above rivermile (RM) 369 in Kansas City (Nebraska City, RM = 560; St. Joseph, RM = 530; Parkville, RM = 377) and three below (Lexington, RM = 319; Glasgow, RM = 228; Hermann, RM = 94) were sampled with rock basket artificial substrates, a qualitative kicknet method, and the Petite Ponar. We also compared the performance of the methods used. A total of 132 aquatic macroinvertebrate taxa were collected from the lower Missouri River; one third of these taxa belonged to the sensitiveEPOT insect orders (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Odonata, and Trichoptera). Rock baskets had the highest mean efficiency (34.1%) of the methods, and the largest number of taxa was collected by Ponar (n = 69) and kicknet (n = 69) methods. Seven of the 15 metrics calculated from rock basket data, and five ofthe nine metrics calculated from Ponar data showed highly significant differences (ANOVA, P < 0.001) at one or more sitesbelow Kansas City. We observed a substantial reduction in net-spinning Trichoptera in rock habitats below Kansas City (Lexington), an increase in relative dominance of Oligochaeta in depositional habitats at the next site downstream (Glasgow), and lower relative condition scores in rock habitat at Lexingtonand depositional habitat at Glasgow. Collectively, these data indicate that some urban-related impacts on the aquatic macroinvertebrate community are occurring. Our results suggest that the methods and assessment framework we used in this studycould be successfully applied on a larger scale with concurrentwater and sediment chemistry to validate metrics, establish impairment levels, and develop a specific macroinvertebrate community index for the lower Missouri River. We recommend accomplishing this with longitudinal multi-habitat sampling at a larger number of sites related to all potential sources of impairment, including major tributaries, urban areas, and point sources.  相似文献   

18.
Provisional physical habitat indices were developed and validatedfor Maryland Coastal and Non-Coastal Plain streams using variables (commonly called metrics) that best discriminated reference and degraded conditions based on biological, chemicaland land use data from the 1994–97 Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS). These habitat indices contained variables that described structural, hydrological, vegetative and aesthetic components of stream habitat. Variables with the best discriminatory power for Coastal Plain streams were: instream habitat, velocity/depth diversity, pool/glide/eddy quality, embeddedness, maximum depth and aesthetic rating. Physical habitat variables with the best discriminatory power for Non-Coastal Plain sites were: instream habitat, velocity/depth diversity, riffle/run quality, embeddedness, number of rootwads and aesthetic rating. The overall classification efficiency forindex validation was 76% for both indices pooled over both strata. Scaled physical habitat index values (0–100) for bothstrata identified nearly twice as many good sites (31%) as very poor sites (16%). More than half the Maryland sites werein the poor to fair range (53%).  相似文献   

19.
于2004—2010年5月对西苕溪流域20个参照点,5个中度干扰点以及2个重度干扰点的底栖动物进行了调查,共鉴定出74科190属226个种;受干扰后,底栖动物群落物种丰富度、EPT物种丰富度、Shannon-wiener多样性指数和B-IBI指数显著下降,BI指数显著升高。CCA分析结果表明,参照、中度和重点干扰样点的底栖动物群落差异明显。城镇化引起的溪流水温上升、营养盐升高、泥沙输入量增多和堤岸固化是导致溪流底栖动物群落退化的主要原因。  相似文献   

20.
Standard protocols are critical for maximizing data comparability and aggregation in national monitoring programs, and taxa richness is a common indicator of site condition and biological diversity. There are two general approaches for sampling stream macroinvertebrate assemblages: targeted richest habitat and site wide. At seven sites, we compared three methods: Ontario Benthic Biomonitoring Network (OBBN), Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), and Rapid Bioassessment Protocol (RBP). The OBBN method produced a biased sample at a site with a single small riffle, the RBP method produced the most total taxa, and the EMAP method produced the most taxa at four sites and the most individuals at six sites. The RBP method produced asymptotes for percent tolerant individuals, percent chironomid individuals, and Hilsenhoff Biotic Index score after five to ten stations. The EMAP method produced asymptotes for those metrics after 10 to 20 stations per site. The EMAP method typically required half the number of stations as the RBP method to obtain 70–90% of true taxa richness as estimated by the Jaccard coefficient. We conclude that the EMAP method is preferable because of its greater precision in taxa richness estimates.  相似文献   

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