A derivation of the statistical characteristics of forest fires

The analysis of large data sets concerning fires in various forested areas of the world has pointed out that burned areas can often be described by different power-law distributions for small, medium and large fires and that a scaling law for the time intervals separating successive fires is fulfilled. The attempts of deriving such statistical laws from purely theoretical arguments have not been fully successful so far, most likely because important physical and/or biological factors controlling forest fires were not taken into account. By contrast, the two-layer spatially extended forest model we propose in this paper encapsulates the main characteristics of vegetational growth and fire ignition and propagation, and supports the empirically discovered statistical laws. Since the model is fully deterministic and spatially homogeneous, the emergence of the power and scaling laws does not seem to necessarily require meteorological randomness and geophysical heterogeneity, although these factors certainly amplify the chaoticity of the fires. Moreover, the analysis suggests that the existence of different power-laws for fires of various scale might be due to the two-layer structure of the forest which allows the formation of different kinds of fires, i.e. surface, crown, and mixed fires.     

Total mercury and methylmercury concentrations in fish from the Mojana region of Colombia

Total mercury (T-Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations have been measured in the muscle tissue of 16 fish species consumed in the Mojana region of Colombia. T-Hg analysis was performed by cold-vapor atomic-absorption spectroscopy (CV-ASS) and MeHg analysis by gas chromatography with electron-capture detection. Higher T-Hg and MeHg concentrations were detected in carnivorous species (T-Hg = 0.371 ± 0.172 (μg g⁻¹ fresh wt, MeHg = 0.346 ± 0.171 μg g⁻¹ fresh wt) than in non-carnivorous fish (T-Hg = 0.155 ± 0.108 μg g⁻¹ fresh wt, MeHg = 0.146 ± 0.102 μg g⁻¹ fresh wt). In the different species mercury was present almost completely as the methylated form, with percentages between 80.5 and 98.1% (mean 92.0 ± 3.4%). In 13.5% of fish-tissue samples T-Hg concentrations exceeded the maximum level recommended by the World Health Organization for human consumption (Hg = 0.5 μg g⁻¹ fresh wt). Although mean T-Hg concentrations in all fish samples (0.269 ± 0.181 μg g⁻¹ fresh wt) did not exceed this limit, risk assessment suggested that the consumption of 0.12 kg fish day⁻¹ could increase the risk of mercury poisoning of the inhabitants of this region.     

Correlations between forest fires in British Columbia, Canada, and sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean

Correlations and cross-correlations between forest fires in the province of British Columbia, Canada, and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean were evaluated. British Columbia has a long Pacific Ocean coastline; given that there may be teleconnections between the province's forest fires and climate variability over the ocean, significant correlations may exist between forest fires and the sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean. Fire occurrences and areas burned through lightning-caused and human-caused fires were analyzed against individual 1° × 1° grid cells of anomalies in the sea surface temperature to determine correlations for the period 1950-2006. Significant correlations (p < 0.05) for vast areas of the ocean were found between occurrences of lightning-caused fires and sea surface temperature anomalies for time lags of 1 and 2 years, whereas significant correlations between occurrences of human-caused fires and sea surface temperature anomalies occurred extensively for many time lags. To support the results of this approach, correlations between fire data and the Niño 3.4, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Arctic Oscillation indices were tested for the same period. Significant correlations were found between fire occurrences and these indices at certain time lags. Overall, fire occurrence appeared to be more extensively correlated with sea surface temperature anomalies than was area burned. These results support the hypothesis that teleconnections exist between fire activity in British Columbia and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, and the correlations suggest that linear regression models or other regression techniques may be appropriate for predicting fire severity from the sea surface temperatures of one or more previous years.     

Modelling the forest carbon budget of a Mediterranean region through the integration of ground and satellite data

This paper introduces an innovative modelling strategy aimed at simulating the main terms of net forest carbon budget (net primary production, NPP and net ecosystem exchange, NEE) in Tuscany (Central Italy). The strategy is based on the preliminary calibration and application of parametric and bio-geochemical models (C-Fix and BIOME-BGC, respectively), which simulate the behaviour of forest ecosystems close to equilibrium condition (climax). Next, the ratio of actual over-potential tree volume is computed as an indicator of ecosystem distance from climax and is combined with the model outputs to estimate the NPP and NEE of real forests. The per-pixel application of the new modelling strategy was made possible by the collection of several data layers (maps of forest type and volume, daily meteorological data and monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images for the years 1999–2003) which served to characterize the eco-climatic and forest features of the region. The obtained estimates of forest NPP and NEE were evaluated against ground measurements of accumulated woody biomass and net carbon exchange. The results of these experiments testify the good potential of the proposed strategy and indicate some problem areas which should be the subject of future research.     

Modeling net primary production of a fast-growing forest using a light use efficiency model

As interest grows in the quantification of global carbon cycles, Light Use Efficiency (LUE) model predictions of the forest net primary production (NPP) are being developed at an accelerating rate. Such models can provide useful predictions at large scales, but evaluating their performance has been difficult. In this study, a remote sensing-based LUE model was established to estimate forest NPP. Using the forest inventory data (FID) from the regional forest inventory survey in China and established allometric biomass equations, we calculated the biomass, the biomass increment, and the NPP of Eucalyptus urophylla (E. urophylla) plantation plots in the forestry jurisdiction of the Leizhou Forestry Bureau, Southern China. The FID-based NPP and the NPP from LUE model predictions were then compared to each other. Results show that the NPP from model predictions at a spatial resolution of 30 m × 30 m varied from 0 to 265 gC/(m² month) and showed regional differences. In addition, the stand age had variable effects on the average individual biomass of the E. urophylla plantation plots. The average individual biomass of the young and mid-age forests increased exponentially and logarithmically with the stand age (R² = 0.9178 and R² = 0.8683), respectively. For young and mid-age E. urophylla plantation plots, the LUE model-predicted NPP was fairly consistent with the FID-based NPP, but the model predictions of the NPP were higher than the estimates from FID. Through the analysis of the causes of uncertainty and the possible reasons for the discrepancy between the model-based NPP and FID-based NPP, the FID-derived estimates provided a foundation for model evaluation.     

Post-fire vegetation regrowth detection in the Deiva Marina region (Liguria-Italy) using Landsat TM and ETM+ data

Obtaining quantitative information about the recovery of fire-affected ecosystems is of utmost importance from the management and decision-making point of view. Nowadays the concern about natural environment protection and recovery is much greater than in the past. However, the resources and tools available for its management are still not sufficient. Thus, attention and precision is needed when decisions must be taken. Quantitative estimates on how the vegetation is recovering after a fire can be of help for evaluating the necessity of human intervention on the fire-affected ecosystem, and their importance will grow as the problem of forest fires, climate change and desertification increases.This article performs a comparison of methods to extract quantitative estimates of vegetation cover regrowth with Landsat TM and ETM+ data in an area that burned during the summer of 1998 in the Liguria region (Italy). In order to eliminate possible sources of error, a thorough pre-processing was carried out, including a careful geometric correction (reaching RMSE lower than 0.3 pixels), a topographic correction by means of a constrained Minnaert model and a combination of absolute and relative atmospheric correction methods. Pseudo Invariant Features (PIF) were identified by implementing an automated selection method based in temporal Principal Component Analysis (PCA), which has been called multi-Temporal n-Dimensional Principal Component Analysis (mT-nD-PCA).Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) was compared against quantitative vegetation indices which are based on well known traditional vegetation indices like Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI). Accuracy assessment was performed by regressing vegetation cover results obtained with each method against field data gathered during the fieldwork campaign carried out in the study area. Results obtained showed how vegetation cover fractions extracted from the NDVI based quantitative index were the most accurate, being superior to the rest of the techniques applied, including SMA.     

Temporal and geographical variations of mercury and selenium in eggs of Larus michahellis and Larus audouinii from central Mediterranean islands

In this study, we determined mercury and selenium levels in abandoned unhatched eggs of the yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis) and Audouin’s gull (Larus audouinii) collected during 2004–2005 from the Tuscan archipelago and Sardinia (Italy). The different feeding habits of the two species probably determine the different uptakes of trace elements, as the study shows highly significant differences for selenium and mercury levels as well as shell thickness and Hg:Se molar ratio values. Audouin’s gulls nesting on the coasts of the Tuscan archipelago showed significantly higher selenium levels than did gulls from colonies from the islands around Sardinia. Comparisons with a similar investigation previously conducted in the same area suggested that mercury and selenium concentrations, although in line with reports in the literature, were significantly lower than levels encountered in gulls in the early 1980s. Mercury (mg/kg d.w.) dropped from 8.631 to 5.030 in Audouin’s gulls and from 2.509 to 0.828 in yellow-legged gulls. The regional decline in mercury levels following reduced use of the metal in industry and the probable food depletion effects linked to the overfishing of fish prey of these two gull species are discussed as hypotheses that could explain the decrease in mercury levels found in eggs.     

Total mercury content found in edible tissues of top predator fish from the Gulf of California,Mexico

Fish at the top of the food chain bioaccumulate and biomagnify toxic metals including mercury (Hg), at a higher rate than nonpredatory fish. However, although some top predator fish species are important in the human diet, the risks for consumers in Mexico are difficult to evaluate due to the scarce baseline information available. In the present article, data on the total mercury (THg) concentrations found in edible tissues of different species of sharks, rays, large pelagic fishes and groupers from the Gulf of California are presented and compared with national and international health guidelines. During 2003 and 2004, 73 shark dorsal tissue samples, 52 ray samples, 66 large pelagic fish samples and 16 grouper samples were collected at different sites along the Gulf of California. Samples were digested in a microwave system and analyzed by cold vapor atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Thirty samples (14%) showed concentrations of Hg above the national statutory limit of 1?mg?kg^?1, from which 25 samples were sharks and 3 were large pelagic fishes. A positive correlation was found between the natural log of THg [ln(THg)] and total length (TL cm) in species of sharks, rays and groupers. The Teacapán estuary in Sinaloa was detected as a possible source of Hg into the Gulf of California due to historic mining in the watershed. Mean Hg concentrations exceeded the regulatory limit of 1?mg?kg^?1 in the following highly commercial shark species: smooth hammerhead, pelagic thrasher, pacific sharpnose shark, dusky shark, scalloped hammerhead, and whitenose shark, in that order. It is recommended that preventive food advisories be issued with respect to these species until further investigations are conducted.     

Simulation of NO and N2O emissions from a spruce forest during a freeze/thaw event using an N-flux submodel from the PnET-N-DNDC model integrated to CoupModel

The amount of nitrogen gases (N₂O, NO and N₂) emitted from forest soils depends on interactions between soil properties, climatic factors and soil management. To increase the understanding of nitrogen processes in soil ecosystems, two dynamic models, CoupModel (coupled heat and mass transfer model for soil–plant–atmosphere systems) and the denitrification–decomposition (DNDC) model were selected. Both are dynamic models with different submodels for soil, vegetation, hydrology and climate system. CoupModel has a higher degree of detail on soil physical and abiotic components, whereas the DNDC model contains details of microbiological processes involved in production of nitrogen gases. To improve the previous simple submodel of nitrogen emission in CoupModel, we included a submodel corresponding to the forest version of DNDC containing photosynthesis/evapotranspiration-nitrogen (PnET-N-DNDC model).     

The influence of hydrodynamic processes on zooplankton transport and distributions in the North Western Mediterranean: Estimates from a Lagrangian model

A Lagrangian module has been developed and coupled with the 3D circulation model Symphonie to study the influence of hydrodynamic processes on zooplankton transport and distributions in the North Western Mediterranean (NWM). Individuals are released every 3 days from March to August 2001 in two initial areas: around the DYFAMED sampling station in the central Ligurian Sea and in the Rhône river plume. Then the individuals are tracked for 40 days either as passive particles or with a simple diel vertical migration (DVM) pattern. The simulations suggest strong seasonal patterns in the distributions of the individuals released around the DYFAMED sampling station. Individuals spread all over the NWM basin after 40 days but different patterns occur depending on the season, the initial depths of release and the capacity of DVM. Offshore-shelf transport only occurs in April and May with particles ending up in the Gulf of Lions (GoL) in low concentrations. In other months, the Northern Current (NC) can be considered as a barrier for particles entering the GoL from the offshore sea. A quarter to a half of passive individuals released in the Rhône river plume remain in the GoL. The rest is transported by the NC towards the Catalan Sea. Applying a simple DVM scheme does not increase the retention of particles on the shelf.     

Shifting cultivation, forest fallow, and externalities in ecosystem services: Evidence from the Eastern Amazon

This study examines the value of fallow ecosystem services in shifting cultivation, including hydrological externalities that may affect other farms. Using farm-level survey data from the Brazilian Amazon, I estimate a production function to assess the value of forest fallow and test whether it provides local externalities to agricultural production. Soil quality controls, instrumental variables, and spatial econometric approaches help address endogeneity issues. I use GIS data on external forest cover at the farm level and model the hydrological externality as an upstream-to-downstream process. The estimated parameters indicate that fallow contributes significantly to productivity both on farm and downstream. In addition, most farms allocate sufficient land to fallow, accounting for both the value of hydrological spillovers and the opportunity cost of land left out of cultivation. These results suggest that farming communities may have some self-interest in preserving forest cover locally—a finding that may bolster policy efforts aimed at conserving tropical forests for their global public goods.