植被净初级生产力对气候变化的响应研究——以黄土高原燕沟流域为例

Vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is a sensitive indicator to characterize the response of terrestrial ecosystems to the climate change. Projections of the NPP changes of the Loess Plateau under future climate scenarios have great significances in revealing the interactions among terrestrial ecosystems and climatic systems, as well as instructing future vegetation construction of this region. Here, we carried out a case study on the Yangou watershed in the Loess Plateau. Using the vegetation-producing process model (VPP) established for such small watersheds, we simulated the NPP of the Yangou watershed under different scenarios of climate changes. The results showed that the NPP significantly increased with the precipitation increasing and evidently decreased with the temperature increasing where the climate change occurred in the whole year or in the summer half year. However, where the climate change occurred in the winter half year, the increased precipitation had little effect on the NPP, and the increased temperature significantly reduced the NPP. There were clear differences among the response sensitivities of different vegetation types with trees and shrubs were more sensitive to the changes in temperature and precipitation than crops and grasses. Currently, the most favourable climate change scenario to the NPP in the Yangou watershed was T0P15 under which the precipitation increased by 15% and the temperature did not changed, in the whole year; in the meantime, the most unfavourable climate change scenarios was T2P-15 under which the precipitation declined by 15% and the temperature increased by 2℃, in the whole year.     

Evaluation of dust activity and climate effects in North China

TOMS/Al data with nearly 20 years are utilized in the paper to evaluate dust activities in North China. Combined with simultaneous NCEP reanalysis climate data, climate effects on dust activities are assessed. The results showed that the whole North China suffers impact by dust aerosols, with three centers standing out in TOMS/Al spring average map that are western three basins, which are characterized by lower annual precipitation and elevation. Gobi deserts in Mongolia Plateau do not attain higher TOMS/AI value due to cloud contamination and relative higher elevation. Spring is the season with the highest TOMS dust aerosol index; within the western three basins, high dust aerosol index appears in both spring and summer, especially in Tarim Basin. Wind speed in spring and precipitation in previous rainy season play important roles in controlling dust activities, higher wind speed and less precipitation than the normal are in favor of dust activities in spring. Temperature in spring and previous winter also affect dust activity to a certain extent, but with contrary spatial distribution. Temperature in winter exert effect principally in west part, contrarily, temperature effect in spring is mainly shown in east part. Both of them have negative correlation with dust activity.     

Numerous experiments for the impact of warming climate on the phenology and grain yield of winter wheat

Based on the environmental and crop data at Zhenjiang City, in Jiangsu Province, middle east of China, the growing process of winter wheat was simulated by CERES-Wheat model assuming the daily average temperature is 1℃ to 2℃ higher than at the present, which are mostly possible for the change of climate because of enrichment of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The simulation results show that warming climate can promote development rate and shorten phenological stages of wheat, and the grain yield will be higher than present. Its impact on the kernel weight and grains per square meter were different for the plantings of various sowing dates. The results of this study suggest that substantial changes in agricultural production and management practices are needed to respond to the climatic changes expected to take place in China.     

Hydrological eco-service of rubber plantations in Hainan Island and its effect on local economic development

The impacts of economic forest on global environmental change(GEC) are one of the hot issues in environmental study. Based on the 3-year observation data and 40-year climate data, GEC and analysis of the hydrological dynamic characteristics of rubber plantations and estimate of the water balance in the rubber plantations in Hainan Island were made. The results showed that the rainfall intercepted by thecanopy of the plantations accounted for 11.4-5 % of the annual rainfall, the total runoff for 23.71%, the total evaporation and transpiration for 63.24%, the soil moisture storage for 1.6%. Analysis of the 40year rainfall data in the 19 counties of Hainan Island during 1951—1990 showed that the large-scale substitution of the natural vegetation with the rubber plantations had no significant effect on the local rainfall in Hainan Island. The main reasons are (1) 80% of the rainfall in Hainan is brought by typhoons; (2) the proportion of 11.6% rubberplantations in total forest coverage in Hainan is not enough to influence the local rainfall in Hainan Island; and (3) although the rubberplantation is artificial vegetation, it has the similar function to the tropical rain forest. Analysis of the total water resource and I‘otal GDP ofHainan in 1997 showed that the economic benefit resulted from the water resource was 1.0 RMB Yuan/m3 . The value of hydrological of therubber plantation in Hainan was 113.9 million RMB Yuan/a when compared with the tropical rain forest. The paper reaches conclusion that the hydrological eco-service function of rubber plantation has been enhanced after transformed from natural vegetation, which includes the natural service and powerful social service.     

Assessment of potential dermal and inhalation exposure of workers to the insecticide imidacloprid using whole-body dosimetry in China

In China, although improvements to the pesticide registration process have beenmade in last thirty years, no occupational exposure data are required to obtain a commercial license for a pesticide product. Consequently, notably little research has been conducted to establish an exposure assessment procedure in China. The present study monitored the potential dermal operator exposure from knapsack electric sprayer wheat field application of imidacloprid in Liaocheng City, Shandong Province and in Xinxiang City, Henan Province, China, using whole-body dosimetry. The potential inhalation exposure was determined using a personal air pump and XAD-2 sample tubes. The analytical method was developed and validated, including such performance parameters as limits of detection and quantification, linear range, recovery and precision. The total potential dermal and inhalation exposures were 14.20, 16.80, 15.39 and 20.78 mL/hr, respectively, for the four operators in Liaocheng and Xinxiang, corresponding to 0.02% to 0.03% of the applied volume of spray solution. In all trials, the lower part (thigh, lower leg) of the body was the most contaminated, accounting for approximately 76% to 88% of the total exposure. The inhalation exposure was less than 1% of the total exposure. Such factors as the application pattern, crop type, spray equipment, operator experience and climatic conditions have been used to explain the exposure distribution over the different parts of the body. As indicated by the calculated Margin of Exposure, the typical wheat treatment scenarios when a backpack sprayer was used are considered to be safe in terms of imidacloprid exposure.     

Winter survival of microbial contaminants in soil: An in situ verification

The aim of the research was to evaluate, at site scale, the influence of freezing and freeze/ thaw cycles on the survival of faecal coliforms and faecal enterococci in soil, in a climate change perspective. Before the winter period and during grazing, viable cells of faecal coliforms and faecal enterococci were detected only in the first 10 cm below ground, while, after the winter period and before the new seasonal grazing, a lower number of viable cells of both faecal indicators was detected only in some of the investigated soil profiles, and within the first 5 cm. Taking into consideration the results of specific investigations, we hypothesise that the non-uniform spatial distribution of grass roots within the studied soil can play an important role in influencing this phenomenon, while several abiotic factors do not play any significant role. Taking into account the local trend in the increase of air temperature, a different distribution of microbial pollution over time is expected in spring waters, in future climate scenarios. The progressive increase in air temperature will cause a progressive decrease in freeze/thaw cycles at higher altitudes, minimising cold shocks on microbial cells, and causing spring water pollution also during winter.     

Winter survival of microbial contaminants in soil:An in situ verification

The aim of the research was to evaluate, at site scale, the influence of freezing and freeze/thaw cycles on the survival of faecal coliforms and faecal enterococci in soil, in a climate change perspective. Before the winter period and during grazing, viable cells of faecal coliforms and faecal enterococci were detected only in the first 10 cm below ground, while,after the winter period and before the new seasonal grazing, a lower number of viable cells of both faecal indicators was detected only in some of the investigated soil profiles, and within the first 5 cm. Taking into consideration the results of specific investigations, we hypothesise that the non-uniform spatial distribution of grass roots within the studied soil can play an important role in influencing this phenomenon, while several abiotic factors do not play any significant role. Taking into account the local trend in the increase of air temperature, a different distribution of microbial pollution over time is expected in spring waters, in future climate scenarios. The progressive increase in air temperature will cause a progressive decrease in freeze/thaw cycles at higher altitudes, minimising cold shocks on microbial cells, and causing spring water pollution also during winter.     

Effects of seasonal climatic variability on several toxic contaminants in urban lakes: Implications for the impacts of climate change

Climate change is supposed to have influences on water quality and ecosystem. However, only few studies have assessed the effect of climate change on environmental toxic contaminants in urban lakes. In this research, response of several toxic contaminants in twelve urban lakes in Beijing, China, to the seasonal variations in climatic factors was studied. Fluorides, volatile phenols, arsenic, selenium, and other water quality parameters were analyzed monthly from2009 to 2012. Multivariate statistical methods including principle component analysis, cluster analysis, and multiple regression analysis were performed to study the relationship between contaminants and climatic factors including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and sunshine duration. Fluoride and arsenic concentrations in most urban lakes exhibited a significant positive correlation with temperature/precipitation, which is mainly caused by rainfall induced diffuse pollution. A negative correlation was observed between volatile phenols and temperature/precipitation, and this could be explained by their enhanced volatilization and biodegradation rates caused by higher temperature. Selenium did not show a significant response to climatic factor variations, which was attributed to low selenium contents in the lakes and soils. Moreover, the response degrees of contaminants to climatic variations differ among lakes with different contamination levels. On average, temperature/precipitation contributed to 8%, 15%, and 12% of the variations in volatile phenols, arsenic, and fluorides,respectively. Beijing is undergoing increased temperature and heavy rainfall frequency during the past five decades. This study suggests that water quality related to fluoride and arsenic concentrations of most urban lakes in Beijing is becoming worse under this climate change trend.     

Climate effects of nuclear war in China

By utilizing simulations of climatic respponse to nuclear smoke, which were made by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA, climate change in China induced by a large-scale nuclear war is analysed. Remarkable climate change in China following nuclear smoke injections is found. The surface air temperature decreases dramatically around all China, surface cooling is 13 ℃ averaging over whole China in July and maximum cooling is 23. 4 ℃ , 3 ℃ cooling in January and maximum 8℃ for the 150 Tg smoke injection (equivalent to the base-line nuclear war). However, the change in temperature is unhomogeneous, implying that the rise in temperature happens over some parts of China. An averaging precipitation decrease in many of months of the experimental year. The precipitation defect is dependent on a scale of nuclear war, the deduction is 1.8mm/day averaging over China in July in the 150 Tg smoke injection, and 0.1 mm/d in January. Nevertheless, the precipitation enhancement in a few months over some re     

Simulating global soil-CO2 flux and its response to climate change

It has been argued that increased soil respiration would become a major atmospheric source of CO2 in the event of global warming. The simple statistical models were developed based on a georeferenced database with 0.5° × 0.5° longitude/latitude resolution to simulate global soil-CO2 fluxes, to investigate climatic effects on these fluxes using sensitivity experiments, and to assess possible responses of soil-CO2 fluxes to various climate change scenarios. The statistical models yield a value of 69 PgC/a of global soil CO2 fluxes for current condition. Sensitivity experiments confirm that the fluxes are responsive to changes in temperature,precipitation and actual evapotranspiration, but increases in temperature and actual evapotranspiration affect soil-CO2 fluxes more than increases in precipitation. Using climatic change projections from four global circulation models, each corresponding to an equilibrium doubling of CO2, it can be found that the largest increases in soil-CO2 fluxes were associated with the boreal and tundra regions. The globally averaged soil-CO2 fluxes were estimated to increase by about 35 ％ above current values, providing a positive feedback to the greenhouse effect.     

利用海南冬季优势积极发展冬季农业

海南岛是我国最大的一块热带地区，是我国最大的冬季天然温室。冬季光温资源丰富，台风、暴雨及病虫危害很少发生，在特别干旱时段，只要加以灌溉，冬种作物便可以在正常的环境条件下生长、发育，产量比较稳定，易获得高产，并且可以冬种的瓜果蔬菜、粮食、饲料等作物种类繁多，可开发利用的冬闲田面积广。在夏季，台风、洪水、病虫等危害严重，进一步开发的潜力已有限，并且一些产品（尤其是热作产品）面临东南亚、南亚及美洲一些国家和地区的激烈竞争，为此，利用冬季优势，积极发展冬种瓜果蔬菜及饲料等作物，是实现农业高产、优质、高效的关键措施。     

海南岛综合自然资源特点与热带农业生产的发展

海南岛是我国第二大岛,面积约34000km²（5077万亩）。北临琼州海峡同雷州半岛隔海相望,扼守着祖国的南大门。本岛也是我国面积最大的热带岛屿,自然资源丰富。因此,海南岛生产建设的发展,对我国国防、经济、农业现代化,都有着重大的意义。 海南岛总面积占我国热带、南亚热带面积的7%。面积虽不大,但其自然条件却相当复杂。岛内东、南、西、北气候不同,中部地形复杂,气候垂直变化显著。因此,在安排与发     

我国西双版纳夜雨资源的农业气候分析

研究了西双版纳地区夜雨及雾雨的天气气候特征及时空分布规律,分析了夜雨、雾雨的形成机制及其农业气候意义。结果表明,本区降水呈夜雨与昼雨相均衡的状况,夜雨率达５４５％～５７７％,尤其是雾季和干热季可分别达７１４％、７０６％。夜雨形成多是山风环流造成的地形雨,雨强小,雨时长,因而对作物的有效性高。夜间雾雨则在作物生态环境中起着至关重要的作用,可部分缓解干旱季节作物需水的不足。因此,深入探讨夜雨和雾雨资源是制定有效防御干旱对策的重要依据。     

哀牢山地农业气候资源利用及其与我国东部的分异

用≥１０℃积温并结合最热、最冷月均温与极端低温将哀牢山脉北段划分为５个山地气候带、６个山地农业气候层，各带（层）的上限高度背风东坡比迎风西坡提高５０－２００ｍ。因夏凉等限制，喜温作物种植的山地高度（气候）带比东部水平气候带明显降低，农业熟制也相应减少。     

元江河谷热带坝区自然优势及其开发

元江河谷是我国云南省横断山脉中的干热河谷之一,属于热带半干旱河谷气候类型。具有丰富的热量资源和土地资源,但降雨量特少,生态环境脆弱,限制了多种热带作物的生长,长期以来未引起人们的重视。作者在该地区进行多年试验研究工作的基础上,从自然地理条件、生态环境,通过对比分析,论述了元江河谷热带坝区的自然优势。强调指出:该地区是我国发展优质紫胶--信德紫胶虫最理想的地方。从林业的发展方向与战略来考虑,指出今后元江河谷热带坝区的开发利用,主要是发展林业,走“生态林业”的道路。选择优质紫胶虫最好的寄主树滇刺枣作为造林树种,建立以滇刺枣人工林为主体的人工生态系统。     

中国农业气候区划

中国农业气候区划是反映全国农业生产与气候关系的区域划分。区划的主要目的是为实现农业区域化、专业化、现代化而制定的农业区划和规划提供农业气候的依据。其任务在于揭示农业气候的地域差异,分区阐述农业气候资源和农业气象灾害,本着发挥农业气候资源优势,避免和克服不利气候条件,以及因地制宜,适当集中的原则,着重对合理调     

山区农业气候资源空间分布的推算方法及小地形的气候效应

本文提出了山区农业气候资源(温度、湿度、降水、风速等)空间分布的推算方法。为适应计算机技术在山地气候研究中的开发应用,作者使推算模式函数化,便于用计算机绘制山区小网格农业气候资源空间分布图。文中也提供了上述多项农业气候资源的小地形效应值。本文提出的推算方法在福建省沙溪流域实际应用的结果表明,能有效地揭示山区农业气候资源空间分布的宏观与微观变化,效果是令人满意的,精度也是高的。     

Gaps in the capacity of modern forage crops to adapt to the changing climate in northern Europe

The within-species diversity in response to weather and the gaps in the response diversity in the modern set of forage crop cultivars were determined using an approach that assessed the adaptive capacity under global climate change. The annual dry matter (DM) yields were recorded in multi-location MTT (Maa- ja elintarviketalouden tutkimuskeskus) Agrifood Research Official Variety Trials in Finland for modern forage crop cultivars from 2000 to 2012, as a response to agroclimatic variables critical to yield based on the year-round weather data. The effect and interaction of cultivars and agroclimatic variables were analysed using mixed model. The relatively low adaptive capacity of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) and meadow fescue (Festuca pratensis Huds.) indicates that diversification of the breeding material is warranted, particularly for resistance to high temperatures during primary growth and to high temperature sum 7 days after the first cut. All red clover cultivars (Trifolium pratense L.) suffered from both low and high accumulation of warm winter temperatures. Except for the red clover cultivars, cold stress during winter and lack of warm winter temperatures consistently reduced the yields of all species and cultivars. All tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb.) cultivars suffered from low precipitation during the fall hardening period. Although the set of festulolium (Festulolium pabulare) cultivars was also sensitive to low precipitation during the fall, festulolium was a good example of enhanced capacity to adapt to climate change with high response diversity because the cultivar germplasm base was diversified. Foreign origin in a cultivar pool was apparently not sufficient or necessary to ensure added value for a diversity of responses to climate change. Similar analyses to those used in this study, applied as practical tools for breeders, farmers and public actors, are important to secure the adaptive capacity of crops worldwide under global climate change.     

世界谷物产量与农业气候资源利用效率

世界谷物产量的农业气候资源利用效率有明显地区差异。谷物产量的综合气候资源利用效率以欧洲最高,为２．７８,其后依次是北美洲１．４３,大洋洲１．４３,亚洲１．４０,南美洲１．１２,非洲最低,为０．６１。相对光能利用率（％）从０．０３（安哥拉）至０．７６（荷兰）,热量利用效率（ｋｇ／１℃·ｈａ）从０．０３至２．０３（荷兰、瑞典）,降水量利用效率（ｋｇ／·ｈａ）从０．３５（安哥拉）至８．７１（荷兰）（表１－４）。光热、降水量与作物要求的条件配合较一致的地区,谷物转换效率高。干旱、半干旱地区水分容易发挥效率。世界农业气候资源谷物利用潜力很大。中国比高产国家利用效率低主要是单产利用效率低,应以提高单产的资源利用效率为重点。     

中国海滨旅游地气候适宜性评价

选定我国２５个滨海城市和１２个岛屿共计３７个测站的四项指标（气温、风速、相对湿度、日照时数的多年月平均值）３０多个系列年资料，对海滨城市和近岸岛屿的气候进行了系统分析。研究发现，我国的渤海湾沿岸海滨城市和海南南部城市有长达４～６个月的度假和休疗养的气候条件，它们在季节上有着较强的互补性，相比之下，其他海滨城市适宜旅游季节不长，且分成春、秋两个时段，综合条件不太理想。