Impacts of Global Climate Change on Mediterranean Agrigulture: Current Methodologies and Future Directions. An Introductory Essay

Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.     

不同生物炭对酸性农田土壤性质和作物产量的动态影响

为研究不同原料生物炭对农田土壤酸度、交换性能、磷素养分以及作物产量的综合动态影响,试验设置空白（CK）、水稻秸秆生物炭（RSB）、玉米秸秆生物炭（MSB）、小麦秸秆生物炭（WSB）、稻壳生物炭（RHB）和竹炭（BCB）这6种处理,生物炭按质量分数0.1%施入农田进行长期定点试验,测定水稻、油菜和玉米这3季作物产量和作物收割后的土壤理化性质.结果表明,添加不同原料生物炭可有效提高土壤pH和交换性能,降低交换性酸含量,作用效果随时间下降.生物炭对盐基离子组成的影响为提高交换性K⁺、Ca²⁺和Mg²⁺含量,降低Na⁺含量.生物炭能不同程度地增加土壤有机质（SOM）、速效磷、总磷和无机磷（Al-P和Fe-P）含量,作物产量较当季对照显著提高（P<0.05）,稻壳生物炭在改良酸性土壤理化性质和提高作物产量方面效果较好.     

基于MODIS时序NDVI主要农作物种植信息提取研究

农业在黄河三角洲地区占有重要地位,及时、准确地掌握该地区农作物分布信息对政府有关部门制定农业政策、指导农业生产具有十分重要的意义。时序植被指数能够反映农作物物候特征,帮助识别农作物类型,在农作物种植信息提取方面具有明显优势。论文选取2014年MOD09Q1时序遥感数据集,以黄河三角洲主要农作物为研究对象,利用Harmonic Analysis of NDVI Time-Series（Hants）滤波重构NDVI时序曲线,通过对比待分像元NDVI时序曲线与参考时序曲线的相似性,实现农作物种植信息提取。对分类结果进行面积统计和空间分布精度检验：冬小麦、棉花、玉米的面积提取精度分别达到96.8%、95.5%、85.1%,空间匹配总体精度达86.9%。结果表明该方法有效可行,能够为该地区农业监测提供技术基础。     

Transfer of potentially toxic elements from biosolid-treated soils to maize and wheat crops

There is widespread concern about the risk of potentially toxic elements (PTE) soil and crops accumulate but most studies with biosolids have shown different and even contradictory results. Under field conditions we studied: (i) the accumulation of PTE by maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) from biosolid treated soils and (ii) the ability of total or EDTA extraction to represent the availability of PTE. We sampled plots from nine experiments with maize from controls and biosolid doses up to 45 t DM/ha and four experiments with wheat to biosolid doses up to 30 t DM/ha. The studies were carried out in the Northwest of Buenos Aires province, Argentina. Top soils and plants (shoot and grain) were sampled. Soils were digested with acids or extracted with EDTA. Shoots were digested with acids. Cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, nickel and zinc were determined by ICPES. Boron, cobalt, manganese and molybdenum in maize were also determined in two experiments. The concentrations of PTE in biosolid were below regulatory concentrations but its application increased some PTE concentration in the soil. Crop yields increased when biosolid were applied in high doses and most PTE concentrations were within normal values. Correlations between total manganese and EDTA extractable copper in soils and in maize, and total copper, lead and zinc in soils and in wheat were found. Application of biosolids increased some PTE concentration in soils, but there is no correlative increase in PTE concentration in maize and wheat shoot or grains. The PTE extraction using EDTA does not represent better PTE crop availability than the total extraction.     

控释掺混肥对麦玉轮作体系作物产量和温室气体排放的影响

为探究控释掺混肥一次性施肥对华北平原麦玉（冬小麦和夏玉米）轮作体系作物产量和温室气体排放的影响,于2020~2022年在德州市现代农业科技园区开展田间试验.冬小麦和夏玉米均设不施氮对照（CK）、农户习惯施氮（FFP）、优化施氮（OPT）、CRU1（包膜尿素与普通尿素在冬小麦和夏玉米上的掺混比例分别为5∶5和3∶7）、CRU2（包膜尿素与普通尿素在冬小麦和夏玉米上的掺混比例分别为7∶3和5∶5）共5个处理.对比分析了不同处理的作物产量、氮肥利用效率、施肥经济效益和温室气体排放的差异.结果表明,施氮可显著提高麦玉轮作系统单季和周年作物产量（P<0.05）.与FFP相比,CRU1和CRU2处理的夏玉米、冬小麦和周年产量分别提高了0.4%~5.6%、-5.4%~4.1%和-1.1%~3.9%（P>0.05）;氮肥吸收利用率、氮肥农学利用率和氮肥偏生产力分别提高了-8.6%~43.4%、2.05~6.24 kg·kg^-1和4.24~10.13 kg·kg^-1;周年净收益提高了0.2%~6.3%.施氮显著增加了麦玉轮作体系的土壤N₂O和CO₂的周年排放（P<0.05）,但对CH₄周年排放没有影响（第1年FFP处理除外）.CRU1和CRU2处理的土壤N₂O周年排放总量较FFP处理显著降低了23.4%~30.2%（P<0.05）.施氮显著增加了麦玉轮作体系的周年全球增温潜势（GWP）（P<0.05）,但各施氮处理通过提高作物产量降低了温室气体排放强度.与FFP相比,CRU1和CRU2处理的周年GWP降低了9.6%~11.5%（P<0.05）,周年温室气体排放强度（GHGI）降低了11.2%~13.8%（P>0.05）.综上所述,一次性减量施用控释掺混肥在减少氮肥和人工投入、提高作物产量、经济效益和降低温室气体排放方面具有积极作用,是促进华北平原粮食作物清洁生产的有效氮肥管理措施.     

Adaptation strategies for maize cultivation under climate change in Iran: irrigation and planting date management

Climate change is affecting the productivity of crops and their regional distribution. Strategies to enhance local adaptation capacity are needed to mitigate climate change impacts and to maintain regional stability of food production. The objectives of this study were to simulate the climate change effects on phenological stages, Leaf Area Index (LAI), biomass and grain yield of maize (Zea mays L.) in the future and to explore the possibilities of employing irrigation water and planting dates as adaptation strategies to decrease the climate change impacts on maize production in Khorasan Razavi province, Iran. For this purpose, we employed two types of General Circulation Models ((United Kingdom Met. Office Hadley Center: HadCM3) and (Institute Pierre Simon Laplace: IPCM4)) and three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to produce daily climatic parameters as one stochastic growing season for each projection period. Also, crop growth under projected climate conditions was simulated based on the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize. The results of model evaluation showed that LARS-WG had appropriate prediction for climatic parameters. Time period from cultivation until anthesis and maturity were reduced in majority of scenarios as affected by climate change. The results indicated that the grain yield of maize may be reduced (11 % to 38 %) as affected by climate change based on common planting date in baseline and changed (?61 % to 48 %) in response to different irrigation regimes in the future climate change, under all scenarios and times. In general, earlier planting date (1 May) and decreasing irrigation intervals in the anthesis stage (11 applications) caused higher yield compared with other planting dates due to adaption to high temperature. Based on our findings, it seems that management of irrigation water and planting dates can be beneficial for adaptation of maize to climate change in this region.     

影响不同农作物镉富集系数的土壤因素

农作物的Cd富集系数（BCF）受多种因素影响.为明确田间条件下不同农作物的Cd富集系数特征差异及土壤性质对其影响,分别在我国水稻、小麦和玉米主产区不同污染程度的地块上作物收获期采集土壤和作物籽粒点对点样品,研究水稻、小麦、夏玉米和春玉米的Cd富集系数特征及土壤性质对不同农作物的Cd富集系数的影响,并通过多元回归方程建立以上农作物Cd富集系数与土壤性质的定量关系.结果表明,在田间土壤中Cd含量范围为0.15~2.66 mg·kg^-1条件下,水稻、小麦、夏玉米和春玉米Cd富集系数的均值分别为0.915、0.155、0.113和0.102,水稻明显高于小麦和玉米,春玉米的Cd富集系数最低.土壤中的Cd含量与小麦、夏玉米和春玉米的BCF呈极显著负相关;土壤有机质（SOM）与小麦、夏玉米BCF之间的关系呈极显著负相关;土壤pH和阳离子交换量（CEC）对作物BCF也有影响.引入土壤Cd含量、pH、SOM、CEC等因素,建立水稻、小麦、夏玉米和春玉米的Cd富集系数预测方程.水稻、小麦、夏玉米和春玉米的BCF预测方程相关系数分别为0.423^*、0.796^**、0.826^**和0.551^**,均达到显著或极显著水平,可以较好地预测不同土壤条件下不同农作物的BCF值.     

建立我国主要农作物卫星遥感估产运行系统的主要技术环节及解决途径

本文结合我国耕地和作物种植特点,并根据“八五”攻关实践,指出了建立我国主要农作物（小麦、玉米、水稻、棉花、大豆）卫星遥感估产运行系统所面临的主要技术环节,即系统的工程化总体设计；卫星遥感估产区划；背景数据库的建立；遥感信息同化技术；不同作物面积提取、长势监测与单产模型；运行系统的建立。进一步提出了系统实现的技术方案、步骤和解决这些主要技术环节的设想,即统一组织实施,避免重复工作；抓住主要农作物主产区遥感估产,以河南、安徽、江苏３省为多种作物综合卫星遥感估产试点省；结合遥感信息同化技术,建立面积提取、长势监测、单产模型体系和相应的软件模块；最终建立全国的卫星遥感估产集成系统。     

小麦与不同作物多样化轮作对土壤真菌群落的影响

为明确华北平原冬小麦与不同作物多样化轮作下的土壤真菌群落差异,为生态可持续种植制度的构建和优化提供理论依据,采用实时荧光定量PCR和高通量测序技术研究了连续冬小麦-夏玉米M、冬小麦-夏花生(夏玉米)PM和冬小麦-夏大豆(夏玉米)SM轮作处理的土壤真菌群落丰度、组成和多样性.结果表明,与连续冬小麦-夏玉米处理相比,轮作花生PM2和大豆SM2处理显著降低了土壤真菌ITS序列拷贝数,轮作花生或大豆处理增加了土壤真菌群落丰富度和多样性.非度量多维尺度分析(NMDS)结果显示,不同轮作茬口之间土壤真菌群落存在明显分离,轮作作物对土壤真菌群落结构的影响达显著水平.华北平原砂壤质潮土中不同作物轮作处理的土壤真菌群落均以Ascomycota为优势菌门,以Sordariomycetes和Eurotiomycetes为优势菌纲.不同轮作茬口土壤真菌群落组成存在差异显著的类群,Neocosmospora、Plectosphaerella和Gibellulopsis等潜在病原真菌在冬小麦-夏花生(夏玉米)轮作处理中显著富集,而Penicillium和Zopfiella等潜在有益真菌在冬小麦-夏大豆(夏玉米)轮...     

Eight years of annual no-till cropping in Washington's winter wheat-summer fallow region

The tillage-based winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-summer fallow (WW-SF) cropping system has dominated dryland farming in the Pacific Northwest USA for 125 years. We conducted a large-scale multidisciplinary 8-year study of annual (i.e., no summer fallow) no-till cropping systems as an alternative to WW-SF. Soft white and hard white classes of winter and spring wheat, spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), yellow mustard (Brassica hirta Moench), and safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.) were grown in various rotation combinations. Annual precipitation was less than the long-term average of 301 mm in 7 out of 8 years. Rhizoctonia bare patch disease caused by the fungus Rhizoctonia solani AG-8 appeared in year 3 and continued through year 8 in all no-till plots. All crops were susceptible to rhizoctonia, but bare patch area in wheat was reduced, and grain yield increased, when wheat was grown in rotation with barley every other year. Remnant downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.) weed seeds remained dormant for 6 years and longer to heavily infest recrop winter wheat. There were few quantifiable changes in soil quality due to crop rotation, but soil organic carbon (SOC) increased in the surface 0–5 cm depth with no-till during the 8 years to approach that found in undisturbed native soil. Annual no-till crop rotations experienced lower average profitability and greater income variability compared to WW-SF. Yellow mustard and safflower were not economically viable. Continuous annual cropping using no-till provides excellent protection against wind erosion and shows potential to increase soil quality, but the practice involves high economic risk compared to WW-SF. This paper provides the first comprehensive multidisciplinary report of long-term alternative annual no-till cropping systems research in the low-precipitation region of the Pacific Northwest.     

Modelling Crop-Climate Interactions in Spain: Vulnerability and Adaptation of Different Agricultural Systems to Climate Change

This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO₂ and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO₂-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO₂ on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO₂-driven warmer climate. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Regional crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain

The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the most important regions for food production in China, with its agricultural system being significantly affected by the undergoing climate change and vulnerable with water stress. In this study, the Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP) model is used to evaluate crop yield, water consumption (ET), and water use efficiency (WUE) of a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)–summer maize (Zea mays L.) double cropping system in the NCP from 1951 to 2006. Their responses to future climate scenarios of 21st century projected by the GCM (HadCM3) with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenario (IPCC SRES) A2 and B1 emissions are investigated. The results show a rapid enhancement of crop yield in the past 56 years, accompanying with slight increment of ET and noticeable improvement of WUE. There exist spatial patterns of crop yield stemmed mainly from soil quality and irrigation facilities. For climate change impacts, it is found that winter wheat yield will significantly increase with the maximum increment in A2 occurring in 2070s with a value of 19%, whereas the maximum in B1 being 13% in 2060s. Its ET is slightly intensified, which is less than 6%, under both A2 and B1 scenarios, giving rise to the improvement of WUE by 10% and 7% under A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Comparatively, summer maize yield will gently decline by 15% for A2 and 12% for B1 scenario, respectively. Its ET is obviously increasing since 2050s with over 10% relative change, leading to a lower WUE with more than 25% relative change under both scenarios in 2090s. Therefore, possible adaptation countermeasures should be developed to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for the sustainable development of agro-ecosystems in the NCP.     

甘肃省作物布局演变及其对区域气候变暖的响应

根据甘肃省1985-2005年的气候资料和同时期主要作物播种面积等统计资料,利用快速聚类分析方法分析了气候变暖背景下甘肃省主要作物的种植格局和种植界限演变情况。结果表明:过去20 a里特别是进入20世纪90年代,在河西地区,玉米和棉花播种范围扩张趋势明显,种植面积比重显著增加,春小麦种植面积比重快速降低,种植范围大幅向祁连山浅山区退缩,种植结构的这种调整使玉米和棉花逐渐取代小麦成为河西主要作物,并最终导致该区主要作物种植格局从以小麦为主转变为以玉米和棉花为主;在中部地区,春小麦面积逐年缩小,冬小麦和杂粮种植扩张,玉米的种植比例逐年上升,马铃薯种植逐渐形成规模,形成了以小麦和玉米为主的种植格局;在东南部地区,春小麦和冬小麦面积逐年缩小,玉米、冬油菜和其他喜温的经济作物种植比例逐年上升。相关分析表明,上述作物种植格局的变化与气候变暖带来的积温增加及积温带北移东扩密切相关。     

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate climate scenarios for yam production in the sub-humid savannah zone of West Africa

Globally, yam (Dioscorea spp.) is the fifth most important root crop after sweet potatoes (Ipomoea batatas L.) and the second most important crop in Africa in terms of production after cassava (Manihot esculenta L.) and has long been vital to food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Climate change is expected to have its most severe impact on crops in food insecure regions, yet very little is known about impact of climate change on yam productivity. Therefore, we try estimating the effect of climate change on the yam (variety: Florido) yield and evaluating different adaptation strategies to mitigate its effect. Three regional climate models REgional MOdel (REMO), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Regional Climate Model (SMHIRCA), and Hadley Regional Model (HADRM3P) were coupled to a crop growth simulation model namely Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) version 3060 to simulate current and future yam yields in the Upper Ouémé basin (Benin Republic). For the future, substantial yield decreases were estimated varying according to the climate scenario. We explored the advantages of specific adaptation strategies suggesting that changing sowing date may be ineffective in counteracting adverse climatic effects. Late maturing cultivars could be effective in offsetting the adverse impacts. Whereas, by coupling irrigation and fertilizer application with late maturing cultivars, highest increase in the yam productivity could be realized which accounted up to 49 % depending upon the projection of the scenarios analyzed.     

Impacts of climate change and CO2 increase on agricultural production and adaptation options for Southern Québec, Canada

This study involves the assessment of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas climate change and changing ambient carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels on crop yields in Quebec, Canada. The methodology involves coupling the transient diagnostics of two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models, namely the Canadian CGCM1 and the British HadCM3, to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 3.5 crop models to simulate current (1961–1990) and future (2040–2069) crop yields and changes. This is done for four different crop species, namely spring wheat, maize, soybean, and potato, and for seven agricultural regions of Southern Quebec. The results of this study focus on the main causative factors influencing crop yields, namely the direct CO₂ fertilization effect, the influence of the increase in growing season temperature, including optimal thermal conditions and acceleration in crop maturation, soil moisture availability, as influenced by precipitation and evapotranspiration, and nitrogen uptake by crops. Our results show that crop yield changes may vary according to climate scenario, crop species, and agricultural region. Consistent with other similar research, it would seem that these multiple causative factors very often seem to cancel each other out and dilute the impacts of climate change on crop yields.     

Sustainable resource management coupled to resilient germplasm to provide new intensive cereal–grain–legume–livestock systems in the dry savanna

Sustainable resource management is the critical agricultural research and development challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. The accumulated knowledge on soil management gathered over the last 10 years, combined with solid crop improvement and plant health research at farmers’ level, has brought us to a stage where we can now address with confidence the intensification of cereal–grain–legume-based cropping systems in the dry savanna of West Africa in a sustainable and environmentally positive manner.Two sustainable farming systems that greatly enhance the productivity and sustainability of integrated livestock systems have been developed and implemented in the dry savanna of Nigeria. These are: (i) maize (Zea mays L.)–promiscuous soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotations that combine high nitrogen fixation and the ability to kill large numbers of Striga hermonthica seeds in the soil; and (ii) miflet [Eleusine coracana (L.) Gaerth] and dual-purpose cowpea [Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.]. Improvement of the cropping systems in the dry savanna has been driven by the adoption of promiscuously nodulating soybean varieties (in particular TGx 1448-2E) and dual-purpose cowpea. The rate of adoption is very high, even in the absence of an efficient seed distribution system. The number of farmers cultivating the improved varieties increased by 228% during the last 3 years. Increased production of promiscuous soybean has been stimulated by increased demand from industries and home utilization. Production in Nigeria was estimated at 405,000 t in 1999 compared to less than 60,000 t in 1984. Economic analysis of these systems shows already an increase of 50–70% in the gross incomes of adopting farmers compared to those still following the current practices, mainly continuous maize cultivation. Furthermore, increases in legume areas of 10% in Nigeria (about 30,000 ha in the northern Guinea savanna) and increases of 20% in yield have translated into additional fixed nitrogen valued annually at US$ 44 million. This reflects, at the same time, an equivalent increase in land-use productivity, and with further spread of the improved crops, there are excellent prospects for additional economic and environmental benefits from a very large recommendation domain across West Africa.     

Soil loss due to harvesting of various crop types in contrasting agro-ecological environments

Soil erosion studies on cropland usually only consider water, wind and tillage erosion. However, significant amounts of soil are also lost from the field during the harvest of crops such as sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.), potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), chicory roots (Cichorium intybus L.), cassava (Manihot spp.) and sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas (L.) Lam). During the harvest soil adhering to the crop, loose soil or soil clods and rock fragments are exported from the field together with these crops.This soil erosion process is referred to as ‘soil losses due to crop harvesting’ (SLCH). Most of the studies investigated SLCH variability and its controlling factors for one crop type in similar agro-ecological environments and for comparable harvesting techniques. In this study, a compilation of SLCH studies was made in order to investigate the effect of crop type, agricultural systems, ecological conditions and harvesting technique on SLCH variability. SLCH rates ranged from few to tens of Mg ha⁻¹ harvest⁻¹ and SLCH was highly variable both in space and time. Comparison of four studies on SLCH for sugar beet revealed that harvesting technique and soil moisture content at harvesting time can be equally important for SLCH variability. The occurrence of soil clods harvested with the crop explained why SLCH was significantly larger for mechanically harvested potato in Belgium compared to manually harvested potato in China. SLCH values for manually harvested sugar beet, potato, cassava and sweet potato in China and Uganda were in general smaller than SLCH values for mechanically harvested sugar beet, potato and witloof chicory roots measured in Belgium and France. However, SLCH may also vary significantly within Europe due to differences in harvesting techniques. Soil moisture content at harvesting time was besides harvesting technique one of the key factors controlling SLCH variability. There were no systematic differences in SLCH between crop types, although the soil–crop contact area–crop mass ratio could explain more than 40% of the means from several SLCH studies.     

玉米和小麦对城市污泥施用土壤中多氯联苯的吸收和传输特征

城市污泥施用农田能够改善土壤性状及促进作物生长,但也会使农田存在重金属和有机污染物等污染风险. 多氯联苯(polychlorinated biphenyls, PCBs)作为一类持久性有机污染物,被作物吸收、累积后经食物链传递,潜在威胁着人体健康. 为探究城市污泥施用农田后PCBs在土壤和作物(玉米和小麦)中的分布特征,解析玉米和小麦对土壤PCBs的吸收和传输规律与差异,以关中地区城市污泥施用土壤为研究对象,设置不同植物种属、污泥施用量和污泥类型的土壤盆栽培养试验. 结果表明:①城市污泥施用后造成土壤、玉米和小麦的PCBs污染,土壤、植物根和地上部分以低氯代PCBs〔一氯代PCBs(mono-PCBs)~五氯代PCBs(penta-PCBs)〕为主,且百分含量呈依次增加趋势. ②与种植前相比,种植植物后土壤中更低氯代的PCBs占主导;且土壤∑PCBs消减了20.00%~79.30%,各处理对∑PCBs的消减差异表现为玉米高于小麦、单倍污泥施用量高于双倍污泥施用量、有机质含量最高的污泥施用处理∑PCBs的消减率最高. ③植物根可以吸收土壤PCBs并向地上部分传输,且吸收和传输能力与植物种属、污泥施用量和污泥类型有关,小麦对污染土壤∑PCBs及各PCBs同系物的吸收能力均强于玉米,而传输能力较弱;双倍污泥量施用下植物根对∑PCBs、一氯代PCBs(mono-PCBs)~四氯代PCBs(tetra-PCBs)和六氯代PCBs(hexa-PCBs)的吸收减弱;有机质含量最低的污泥施用下植物根对∑PCBs的吸收能力最强. 研究显示,城市污泥施用会引起土壤和作物PCBs污染,种植作物能消减污染土壤PCBs,而小麦和玉米对土壤∑PCBs及各PCBs同系物的消减和吸收传输存在种属差异.      

基于地块尺度的黑河中游地区农业结构变化及其驱动因素分析——以张掖市为例

黑河中游是我国西北干旱区重要的粮食基地,研究其农业结构变化及其驱动因素对农户种植决策及推动当地农业发展具有一定参考意义。论文以位于黑河中游地区的张掖市为例,基于统计年鉴和农户问卷调查数据,从地块尺度分析了研究区2001—2014年期间农业结构变化,并在定性分析的基础上,从地块与农户两个层面,运用二元Logistic模型及投入-产出法定量分析农业结构变化驱动因素。结果表明：1）研究区作物种植类型趋于多样化。2001年,研究区主要种植作物为小麦、玉米、大麦及“小麦和玉米套作”,其种植地块数占所调查总地块数的81%,2014年种植作物种类增多,且蔬菜、马铃薯、油菜等经济作物种植数量较2001年有所上升。2）由种植小麦为主（占总地块数的31%）转变为种植制种玉米为主（占总地块数的38.7%）;套作转单作。2001年,共有58个套作种植地块,占调查总地块数的22%,其中“小麦和玉米套作”最多,有47个地块;而在2014年,作物套作地块数锐减为2个,“小麦和玉米套作”全部转换为其他单作,其中51%转为制种玉米;水稻种植消失,主要转为普通玉米。3）地块层面上,种植地区的海拔、灌溉定额、河源来水量对农业结构变化影响非常显著（显著水平达到1%）,地下水对农业结构变化影响较为显著（显著水平达到5%）。4）农户层面上,农户作为理性经济人,“收益”是影响其种植行为的最关键因素,其次是政策因素（在5%的水平上显著）,务农劳动力与劳均耕地面积也有一定的驱动作用。     

Adaptation of maize to climate change impacts in Iran

Adaptation is a key factor for reducing the future vulnerability of climate change impacts on crop production. The objectives of this study were to simulate the climate change effects on growth and grain yield of maize (Zea mays L.) and to evaluate the possibilities of employing various cultivar of maize in three classes (long, medium and short maturity) as an adaptation option for mitigating the climate change impacts on maize production in Khorasan Razavi province of Iran. For this purpose, we employed two types of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Daily climatic parameters as one stochastic growing season for each projection period were generated by Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS?WG). Also, crop growth under projected climate conditions was simulated based on the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize. LARS-WG had appropriate prediction for climatic parameters. The predicted results showed that the day to anthesis (DTA) and anthesis period (AP) of various cultivars of maize were shortened in response to climate change impacts in all scenarios and GCMs models; ranging between 0.5 % to 17.5 % for DTA and 5 % to 33 % for AP. The simulated grain yields of different cultivars was gradually decreased across all the scenarios by 6.4 % to 42.15 % during the future 100 years compared to the present climate conditions. The short and medium season cultivars were faced with the lowest and highest reduction of the traits, respectively. It means that for the short maturing cultivars, the impacts of high temperature stress could be much less compared with medium and long maturity cultivars. Based on our findings, it can be concluded that cultivation of early maturing cultivars of maize can be considered as the effective approach to mitigate the adverse effects of climate.