雪崩危险度评价的类型、特征和方法

在提出“积雪单元”概念的基础上,将雪崩危险度评价分为区域雪崩危险度评价和点位雪崩危险度评价。从发生学角度,论证、筛选出发生危险度评价的4个主导因素,即气候、积雪厚度、坡度和植被类型与覆盖度,并提出了明确的指标体系。详细论证了两类评价各自的特征、操作性评价程序和方法。区域雪崩危险度评价是在划分积雪单元的基础上,评定各单元的等级高低并进行制图;点位雪崩危险度评价则涉及到雪崩发生点位和可能的承灾点位,分为发生危险度评价和到达危险度评价,可根据已有的统计资料来预测其概率。     

Information sources for flash flood warnings in Denver,CO and Austin,TX

This research examines sources of information for flash floods in two large metropolitan areas, Denver, CO, and Austin, TX. Previous research has noted that information delivery systems for weather forecasts are geared toward the cultural majority and suggests that inadequate warnings are a primary contributor to deaths and injuries from hazards. This investigation used chi-square analysis to determine the prime warning source preferences and preferred time of day for receiving different media. Results indicate that successful warning messages need to be targeted toward specific sub-populations if the warning is to be received, understood, and responded to properly.     

Information sources for flash flood warnings in Denver, CO and Austin, TX

This research examines sources of information for flash floods in two large metropolitan areas, Denver, CO, and Austin, TX. Previous research has noted that information delivery systems for weather forecasts are geared toward the cultural majority and suggests that inadequate warnings are a primary contributor to deaths and injuries from hazards. This investigation used chi-square analysis to determine the prime warning source preferences and preferred time of day for receiving different media. Results indicate that successful warning messages need to be targeted toward specific sub-populations if the warning is to be received, understood, and responded to properly.     

湖北远安盐池河1980年“6.3”山崩灾难成因分析

1980年6月3日,湖北省远安县盐池河磷矿发生大规模山崩,造成284人死亡。该文分析认为,山崩是在地形、岩性、构造、采矿和降雨多因素作用下形成的,大规模磷矿采空区的悬板张拉作用是山体顶部开裂的主要因素,顺倾软弱带的强度弱化是开裂山体滑移的根本原因。通过建立盐池河山崩地质模型和力学模型,结合变形监测资料分析,建立了顺倾山体开裂力学判据和开裂后山体滑移力学判据。从减灾文化建设角度,探讨了当事人、管理干部和技术专家在盐池河山崩灾难防范过程中的经验教训和防灾启示,可为闻者戒。     

基于GIS的城市火灾风险评价及其在防灾规划中的应用

随着经济发展和城市化进程的不断加快,城市火灾事故不断增多,造成的人员伤亡和财产损失也越来越严重。本文通过构建城市火灾风险评价指标体系,利用GIS中的空间分析功能对各指标体系按其权重进行叠加,得出城市的现状火灾风险等级区划图。根据风险评价现状确定防灾减灾规划的目标,采取相应的防灾减灾措施,并对规划后的火灾风险状况进行了预测,得出规划后的火灾风险等级,从而为消防和规划部门减少和预防城市火灾提供依据和参考。     

山地灾害垂直地带性及其对南水北调西线第一期工程的影响

由于形成山地灾害的多种自然因素具有垂直地带性，尤其作为主要动力因素的水，超过一定高度后由液态成为固态，从而造成了山地灾害的垂直地带性。山地灾害从高到低可分为冰雪带、冻融带和流水（古地下水，裂隙水）带，高低两带之间主体界线在南水北调西线工程及其邻近地区为4900m和3500m。各带均有其特点，其中对西线第一期工程及其下游地区可能造成重大影响的有：大型的冰崩、雪崩、冰湖崩决、滑坡或古滑坡复活、泥石流、泥石流坝或滑坡坝溃决。但这些大型山地灾害在该地区不很严重．今后出现的可能性小，只要引起重视，妥善处理，可以避免或减轻其危害。     

An Examination of the 1990-91 Famine in Sudan

Shortly before and during the harvest of 1990, a series of warnings were issued by concerned international and UN agencies that Sudan would experience a very poor harvest followed by an acute food shortage over the period 1990-91. The 1990 harvest was estimated to be similar to that obtained in 1984. After the very poor harvest in 1984, Sudan experienced a major famine during which deaths may have numbered in the hundreds of thousands. There were fears that this experience might be repeated in 1990 - 91. By the time of the subsequent 1991 harvest, it was clear to all that a severe food crisis had been experienced. There were severe shortages of water and food and very high malnutrition rates of children were noted by UNICEF across a wide range of areas. Despite these adverse indications, starvation deaths were probably numbered in thousands, rather than hundreds of thousands. Famine mortality, which may include deaths from famine associated disease, was similarly low. The initial predictions, it now seems, may have over-estimated famine mortality almost one hundred times. Several potential explanations of the over-estimate are examined. These include prediction errors, government and donor responses to the drought such as food aid and immunization, and traditional community and household level coping strategies in times of food shortage.     

The 1988 earthquake in soviet armenia: implications for earthquake preparedness

An earthquake registering 6.9 on the Richter scale hit the northern part of the Armenian Republic of the Soviet Union on 7 December 1988, resulting in thousands of deaths and injuries. The majority of these resulted from the collapse of inadequately designed and constructed buildings. Analysis of the effects of the Armenian earthquake on the population, as well as of the rescue and medical response, has strong implications for earthquake preparedness and response in other seismically vulnerable parts of the world. Specifically, this paper will recommend a number of important endeavours deemed necessary to improve medical planning, preparedness and response to earthquakes. Strengthening the self-reliance of the community in disaster preparedness is suggested as the best way to improve the effectiveness of relief operations. In earthquake-prone areas, training and education in basic first aid and methods of rescue should be an integral part of any community preparedness programme.     

Snow-avalanche hazards, Southern Glacier National Park, Montana: The nature of local knowledge and individual responses

A survey was conducted of well-educated residents of East Glacier Park, Montana, who are frequently isolated by snow avalanches. It showed that people in this area do not alter driving habits during times of avalanche danger, are not aware of the local avalanche warning system, and have not efficiently garnered information about the avalanche hazard.     

道路交通事故灾害的分析与对策

我国发生的交通事故次数、伤亡人数、经济损失一直呈现高速增长趋势.道路交通事故是一种人为灾害,本文分析了决定道路交通事故的人、车、路等关联因素,指出超载运输是当前及今后威胁我国道路交通安全的主要问题,减轻交通事故灾害的关键是提高人的素质和依靠法制进行科学管理.     

An analysis of the causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths

The objective of this paper is to investigate and to improve understanding of the causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths. A standardised method of classifying flood deaths is proposed and the difficulties associated with comparing and assessing existing information on flood deaths are discussed. Thirteen flood cases from Europe and the United States, resulting in 247 flood disaster fatalities, were analysed and taken as indicative of flood disaster deaths. Approximately two-thirds of the deaths occurred through drowning. Thus, a substantial number of flood disaster fatalities are not related to drowning. Furthermore, males are highly vulnerable to dying in floods and unnecessary risk-taking behaviour contributes significantly to flood disaster deaths. Based on these results, recommendations are made to prevent loss of life in floods. To provide a more solid basis for the formulation of prevention strategies, better systematic recording of flood fatalities is suggested, especially those caused by different types of floods in all countries.     

Persistence of airline accidents

This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927–2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non‐stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long‐run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation.     

Vehicle-occupant deaths caused by tornadoes in the United States, 1900–1998

Abstract

Occupants of vehicles encounter an uncertain degree of risk during tornadic storms. The current National Weather Service guidelines suggest we abandon vehicles to lie in a ditch if no sturdy shelter is available. However, these guidelines were developed without the benefit of supporting research. As we are an increasingly vehicle-dependent society, it is important to explore the historical record of vehicle-occupant deaths to see if the National Weather Service guidance is appropriate. The objective of this paper is to investigate the number, distribution, and broad spatial and temporal trends associated with vehicle-occupant deaths that have occurred as a result of tornadoes, and to define the proportion of tornado-induced deaths that have occurred in vehicles.

There were 15,047 deaths caused by tornadoes from 1900 through 1998. Of those, 5685 occurred at a defined site, and 270 were known to have occurred in vehicles. The number of vehicle-occupant deaths, as a proportion of all site-known, tornado-induced deaths, was constant from 1959–1979, but decreased significantly between 1980–1998. The number of deaths was related to several influencing factors. Linear regressions and correlations were employed to determine the degree of relationship between the number of deaths and several explanatory factors. While population, number of vehicle registrations, and number of tornadoes all seemed to influence the number of deaths to some degree, the most significant factor to influence the number of deaths appeared to be vehicle safety features. Most vehicle-occupant deaths occurred during rare F4 tornadoes, when vehicles where thrown from roadways. Regionally, the Great Plains had the highest number of vehicle-occupant deaths from tornadoes.     

Planning for chemical disasters in Greece

A mathematical model named DISASTER was applied in the Thessaloniki area for the assessment of potential hazards resulting from major accidents in local chemical industries. Some of these hazards are too severe to ignore and immediate measures are therefore required. Such measures need to comply with the EEC Directive 82/501/EEC on major accidents. The implementation of the Directive by the Greek authorities is examined and discussed.     

Diversity and adaptation of shelters in transitional settlements for IDPs in Afghanistan

The diversity of shelters used in transitional settlements for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Herat, Afghanistan is described. The information is based on a field survey undertaken in March 2002 and highlights the adaptation techniques, which IDPs undertake to improve any provided shelter. Potential areas for improvement are indicated; for example, the possibility for using insulated, demountable liners to prevent cold-related deaths without sacrificing shelter flexibility along with the likely need for better agency coordination of the shelter responses they provide. The wider context in which the technical recommendations would be implemented must also be considered. Such issues include agency resources, political impediments to providing the desired option, and the preference of many IDPs that the best shelter would be their home.     

宁夏输电线路特殊地段运维可视化管控系统

为确保宁夏地区地区“三跨”、鸟害外力破坏等特殊地段输电线路的安全高效运行,构建了由主站层、网络层和终端层组成的三层系统构架,将视频监测终端和图像监测终端的监测数据通过无线APN专网进行传输至后台的输电线路可视化运维管控系统,从而实现故障综合研判、作业现场隐患智能管控及大数据综合分析决策等目的,大大提高运维的便利化、智能化。前期试验第一阶段运行效果说明了本系统是一套能实时有效预防重大事故发生的预警系统。     

The Accuracy of Mortality Reporting in Displaced Persons Camps During the Post-emergency Phase

For humanitarian organisations, accurate data are essential to identify emerging health problems and determine programme needs. We visited 45 post-emergency phase displaced persons camps and collected three months' mortality data which we compared with organisations' routine mortality reports. Organisations reported 612 deaths and we identified 741 deaths, for a mortality-reporting ratio, defined as the number of organisation-reported deaths divided by the number of investigator-identified deaths, of 83 per cent. For the majority of camps which under-reported deaths, mortality reporting ratios were significantly higher for women than men, and for camps with central mortality registers rather than those without. In the few camps which over-reported deaths, these occurred primarily among children younger than five years of age, probably due to the inclusion of abortions and stillbirths. Despite the overall under-reporting of deaths by humanitarian organisations, the existing health information systems appear to estimate mortality rates adequately in these post-emergency camps. However, organisations should improve the precision and completeness with which they report the characteristics of deaths in order to provide valuable data to target their programmes at the most vulnerable people.     

地铁盾构坍塌事故中施工人员安全能力分析

地铁项目大规模建设的同时,灾难性的施工事故不断发生。施工人员的不安全行为是事故发生的直接因素,但是,不安全行为正是安全能力匮乏的外在表现。施工人员安全能力的强弱直接影响到是否发生施工事故。在构建施工人员安全能力模型的基础上,分析了施工人员安全能力的形成机理。同时,通过分析地铁施工事故原因,认为地铁施工人员安全能力的大小就体现在施工人员感觉到事故隐患、做出事故隐患危险判断,进而对事故隐患进行正确响应的过程中,并对导致盾构法坍塌事故的事故隐患进行了分析。最后,以一个实际发生的盾构法施工坍塌事故为例,分析了施工人员安全能力在事故发生过程中的体现,从而准确确定了施工人员出现失误的时段,以保障地铁施工安全。     

Integrated Countermeasures for Urban Industrial Disaster Reduction

1Introduction of urban industrial disastersAt the Ministers' Forum on Disaster Reduction and Economic Development in China held on1March2 0 0 0 ,Deputy Director-General YANG Fu of the State Commission of Economy and Tradeemphasized by saying:" Security is importantnotonly to individual life,butalso to social stabilityand economic development. Among the 1 1 8catastrophic accidents in China in 1 999,each ofwhich caused the death of more than ten people,over70 % were connected with urban…     

汶川地震次生灾害提取——面向对象影像分类技术的应用

遥感技术可快速准确地提取滑坡、崩塌、泥石流、堰塞湖等次生灾害信息。面向对象影像分类技术主要通过多尺度分割,并根据对象的特征进行模糊分类,可以很好的利用影像上下文信息,提高分类精度,与传统方法相比优势明显。利用汶川地震的震前、震后的福卫二号等数据进行研究,使用面向对象方法对北川附近灾情进行了变化检测分析;并结合DEM数据对唐家山堰塞湖璇坪乡区域震后初期的水体面积和蓄水增量进行了分析。在此基础上,总结了提取地震次生灾害的关键技术和工作流程。实验结果表明,应用面向对象的变化检测方法提取地震次生灾害可以取得很好的结果。